BOOK 1
INTRODUCTION
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hishisbook, book,while whilestandalone, standalone,is isa continuation a continuationofofthe theIncerto Incertocolleccollection, tion,which whichis isa acombination combinationofofa)a)practical practicaldiscussions, discussions,b)b)philophilosophical sophicaltales, tales,and andc)c)scientifi scientifi c cand andanalytical analyticalcommentary commentaryononthe the problems problemsofofrandomness, randomness,and andhow howtotolive, live,eat, eat,sleep, sleep,argue, argue,fight, fight,bebefriend, friend,work, work,have havefun, fun,and andmake makedecisions decisionsunder underuncertainty. uncertainty.While While accessible accessibletotoa abroad broadgroup groupofofreaders, readers,don’t don’tbebefooled: fooled:the theIncerto Incertois isanan essay, essay,not nota apopularization popularizationofofworks worksdone doneelsewhere elsewhereininboring boringform form (leaving (leavingaside asidethe theIncerto’s Incerto’stechnical technicalcompanion). companion). Skin Skinininthe theGame Gameis isabout aboutfour fourtopics topicsininone: one:a)a)uncertainty uncertaintyand andthe the reliability reliabilityofofknowledge knowledge(both (bothpractical practicaland andscientifi scientifi c,c,assuming assumingthere thereis is a adiff diff erence), erence),ororininless lesspolite politewords wordsbull***t bull***tdetection, detection,b)b)symmetry symmetryinin human humanaffaff airs, airs,that thatis,is,fairness, fairness,justice, justice,responsibility, responsibility,and andreciprocity, reciprocity,c)c) information informationsharing sharinginintransactions, transactions,and andd)d)rationality rationalityinincomplex complexsyssystems temsand andininthe thereal realworld. world.That Thatthese thesefour fourcannot cannotbebedisentangled disentangledis is ** something somethingthat thatis isobvious obviouswhen whenone onehas has. .. .. skin . skinininthe thegame. game. It Itis isnot notjust justthat thatskin skinininthe thegame gameis isnecessary necessaryforforfairness, fairness,commercommercial cialeffi effi ciency, ciency,and andrisk riskmanagement: management:skin skinininthe thegame gameis isnecessary necessarytoto understand understandthe theworld. world. First, First,it itis isbull***t bull***tidentifi identifi cation cationand andfiltering, filtering,that thatis,is,the thediff diff erence erence between between theory theory and and practice, practice, cosmetic cosmetic and and true true expertise, expertise, and and academia academia (in(inthe thebad badsense senseofofthe theword) word)and andthe thereal realworld. world.ToToemit emita aYogiberYogiberrism, rism,ininacademia academiathere thereis isnonodiff diff erence erencebetween betweenacademia academiaand andthe thereal real world; world;ininthe thereal realworld, world,there thereis.is. * *ToTo figure figure outout why why ethics, ethics, moral moral obligations, obligations, and and skills skills cannot cannot bebe easily easily separable separable in in real real life, life, consider consider thethe following. following. When When you you telltell someone someone in in a position a position of of responsibility, responsibility, saysay your your bookkeeper, bookkeeper, “I “I trust trust you,” you,” dodo you you mean mean that that 1) 1) you you trust trust hishis ethics ethics (he(he will will notnot divert divert money money to to Panama), Panama), 2) 2) you you trust trust hishis accounting accounting precision, precision, or or 3) 3) both? both? The The entire entire point point of of thethe book book is that is that in in thethe real real world world it it is hard is hard to to disentangle disentangle ethics ethics onon one one hand hand from from knowledge knowledge and and competence competence onon thethe other. other.
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Second, Second,it itis isabout aboutthe thedistortions distortionsofofsymmetry symmetryand andreciprocity reciprocityinin life: life:If Ifyou youhave havethe therewards, rewards,you youmust mustalso alsoget getsome someofofthe therisks, risks,not notletlet others otherspay paythe theprice priceofofyour yourmistakes. mistakes.If Ifyou youinfl infl ictictrisk riskononothers, others,and and they theyare areharmed, harmed,you youneed needtotopay paysome someprice priceforforit.it.Just Justasasyou youshould should treat treatothers othersininthe theway wayyou’d you’dlike liketotobebetreated, treated,you youwould wouldlike liketotoshare share the theresponsibility responsibilityforforevents eventswithout withoutunfairness unfairnessand andinequity. inequity. If Ifyou yougive giveananopinion, opinion,and andsomeone someonefollows followsit,it,you youare aremorally morallyobobligated ligatedtotobe, be,yourself, yourself,exposed exposedtotoitsitsconsequences. consequences.InIncase caseyou youare aregivgiving ingeconomic economicviews: views: Don’t Don’t tell tell meme what what you you “think,” “think,” just just tell tell meme what’s what’s inin your your portfolio. portfolio.
Third, Third,the thebook bookis isabout abouthow howmuch muchinformation informationone oneshould shouldpractipractically cally share share with with others, others, what what a used a used car car salesman salesman should— should— oror shouldn’t— shouldn’t— tell tellyou youabout aboutthe thevehicle vehicleononwhich whichyou youare areabout abouttotospend spenda alarge large segment segmentofofyour yoursavings. savings. Fourth, Fourth,it itis isabout aboutrationality rationalityand andthe thetest testofoftime. time.Rationality Rationalityininthe the real realworld worldisn’t isn’tabout aboutwhat whatmakes makessense sensetotoyour yourNew NewYorker Yorkerjournalist journalist ororsome somepsychologist psychologistusing usingnaive naivefirstfirstorder ordermodels, models,but butsomething something vastly vastlydeeper deeperand andstatistical, statistical,linked linkedtotoyour yourown ownsurvival. survival. Do Donot notmistake mistakeskin skinininthe thegame gameasasdefi defi ned nedhere hereand andused usedininthis this book book forfor just just anan incentive incentive problem, problem, just just having having a share a share ofofthe the benefi benefi tsts (as(as it itis iscommonly commonlyunderstood understoodininfinance). finance).No. No.It Itis isabout aboutsymmetry, symmetry,more more like likehaving havinga ashare shareofofthe theharm, harm,paying payinga apenalty penaltyif ifsomething somethinggoes goes wrong. wrong.The Thevery verysame sameidea ideaties tiestogether togethernotions notionsofofincentives, incentives,used usedcar car buying, buying,ethics, ethics,contract contracttheory, theory,learning learning(real (reallife lifevs.vs.academia), academia),Kantian Kantian imperative, imperative,municipal municipalpower, power,risk riskscience, science,contact contactbetween betweenintellectuals intellectuals and andreality, reality,the theaccountability accountabilityofofbureaucrats, bureaucrats,probabilistic probabilisticsocial socialjusjustice, tice,option optiontheory, theory,upright uprightbehavior, behavior,bull***t bull***tvendors, vendors,theology theology. .. .. . I stop I stopforfornow. now. THE THE LESS LESS OBVIOUS OBVIOUS ASPECTS ASPECTS OFOF SKIN SKIN ININ THE THE GAME GAME
AAmore morecorrect correct(though (thoughmore moreawkward) awkward)title titleofofthe thebook bookwould wouldhave have been: been:The TheLess LessObvious ObviousAspects AspectsofofSkin Skinininthe theGame: Game:Those ThoseHidden Hidden Asymmetries Asymmetriesand andTheir TheirConsequences. Consequences.For ForI Ijust justdon’t don’tlike likereading reading books booksthat thatinform informme meofofthe theobvious. obvious.I like I liketotobebesurprised. surprised.SoSoasasa skina skinin-inthethegamegamestyle stylereciprocity, reciprocity,I will I willnot notnot notdrive drivethe thereader readerinto intoa adull dull
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I N ITNRTORDOUDCUTCI O T INO N 5 5
collegecollegelecturelecturetype typepredictable predictablejourney, journey,but butrather ratherinto intothe thetype typeofofadadventure ventureI’dI’dlike liketotohave. have. Accordingly, Accordingly,the thebook bookis isorganized organizedininthe thefollowing followingmanner. manner.It It doesn’t doesn’ttake takemore morethan thanabout aboutsixty sixtypages pagesforforthe thereader readertotoget getthe theimimportance, portance,prevalence, prevalence,and andubiquity ubiquityofofskin skinininthe thegame game(that (thatis,is,symmesymmetry) try) inin most most ofofitsits aspects. aspects. But But never never engage engage inin detailed detailed overexplanations overexplanations ofofwhy whysomething somethingimportant importantis isimportant: important:one onedebases debasesa aprinciple principlebyby endlessly endlesslyjustifying justifyingit.it. The Thenondull nondullroute routeentails entailsfocusing focusingononthe thesecond secondstep: step:the thesurprising surprising implications— implications— those thosehidden hiddenasymmetries asymmetriesthat thatdodonot notimmediately immediatelycome come totomind— mind— asaswell wellasasthe theless lessobvious obviousconsequences, consequences,some someofofwhich whichare are quite quiteuncomfortable, uncomfortable,and andmany manyunexpectedly unexpectedlyhelpful. helpful.Understanding Understanding the theworkings workingsofofskin skinininthe thegame gameallows allowsusustotounderstand understandserious seriouspuzpuzzles zlesunderlying underlyingthe thefinefinegrained grainedmatrix matrixofofreality. reality. For Forinstance: instance: How Howis isit itthat thatmaximally maximallyintolerant intolerantminorities minoritiesrun runthe theworld worldand and impose imposetheir theirtaste tasteononus? us?How Howdoes doesuniversalism universalismdestroy destroythe thevery verypeople people it itmeans meanstotohelp? help?How Howis isit itthat thatwewehave havemore moreslaves slavestoday todaythan thanwewedid did during duringRoman Romantimes? times?Why Whyshouldn’t shouldn’tsurgeons surgeonslook looklike likesurgeons? surgeons?Why Why did didChristian Christiantheology theologykeep keepinsisting insistingonona ahuman humanside sideforforJesus JesusChrist Christ that thatis isnecessarily necessarilydistinct distinctfrom fromthe thedivine? divine?How Howdodohistorians historiansconfuse confuse ususbybyreporting reportingononwar, war,not notpeace? peace?How Howis isit itthat thatcheap cheapsignaling signaling(with(without outanything anythingtotorisk) risk)fails failsequally equallyinineconomic economicand andreligious religiousenvironenvironments? ments?How Howdodocandidates candidatesforforpolitical politicaloffi offi cecewith withobvious obviouscharacter character flaws flawsseem seemmore morereal realthan thanbureaucrats bureaucratswith withimpeccable impeccablecredentials? credentials? Why Whydodoweweworship worshipHannibal? Hannibal?How Howdodocompanies companiesgogobust bustthe theminute minute they theyhave haveprofessional professionalmanagers managersinterested interestedinindoing doinggood? good?How Howis ispapaganism ganismmore moresymmetrical symmetricalacross acrosspopulations? populations?How Howshould shouldforeign foreignaf-affairs fairsbebeconducted? conducted?Why Whyshould shouldyou younever nevergive givemoney moneytotoorganized organized charities charitiesunless unlessthey theyoperate operateinina ahighly highlydistributive distributivemanner manner(what (whatis is called calledUberized Uberizedininmodern modernlingo)? lingo)?Why Whydodogenes genesand andlanguages languagesspread spread diff diff erently? erently?Why Whydoes doesthe thescale scaleofofcommunities communitiesmatter matter(a(acommunity communityofof fishermen fishermenturns turnsfrom fromcollaborative collaborativetotoadversarial adversarialonce onceone onemoves movesthe the scale, scale,that thatis isthe thenumber numberofofpeople peopleinvolved, involved,a anotch)? notch)?Why Whydoes doesbehavbehavioral ioraleconomics economicshave havenothing nothingtotododowith withthe thestudy studyofofthe thebehavior behaviorofof individuals— individuals— and andmarkets marketshave havelittle littletotododowith withthe thebiases biasesofofparticiparticipants? pants?How Howis isrationality rationalitysurvival survivaland andsurvival survivalonly? only?What Whatis isthe thefounfoundational dationallogic logicofofrisk riskbearing? bearing?
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But, But,totothis thisauthor, author,skin skinininthe thegame gameis ismostly mostlyabout aboutjustice, justice,honor, honor, and andsacrifi sacrifi ce,ce,things thingsthat thatare areexistential existentialforforhumans. humans. Skin Skinininthe thegame, game,applied appliedasasa arule, rule,reduces reducesthe theeffeff ects ectsofofthe thefollowing following divergences divergencesthat thatgrew grewwith withcivilization: civilization:those thosebetween betweenaction actionand andcheap cheap talk talk(tawk), (tawk),consequence consequenceand andintention, intention,practice practiceand andtheory, theory,honor honorand and reputation, reputation,expertise expertiseand andcharlatanism, charlatanism,concrete concreteand andabstract, abstract,ethical ethical and andlegal, legal,genuine genuineand andcosmetic, cosmetic,merchant merchantand andbureaucrat, bureaucrat,entrepreentrepreneur neurand andchief chiefexecutive, executive,strength strengthand anddisplay, display,love loveand andgoldgolddigging, digging, Coventry Coventryand andBrussels, Brussels,Omaha Omahaand andWashington, Washington,D.C., D.C.,human humanbeings beings and andeconomists, economists,authors authorsand andeditors, editors,scholarship scholarshipand andacademia, academia,dedemocracy mocracy and and governance, governance, science science and and scientism, scientism, politics politics and and politicians, politicians, love loveand andmoney, money,the thespirit spiritand andthe theletter, letter,Cato Catothe theElder Elderand andBarack Barack Obama, Obama,quality qualityand andadvertising, advertising,commitment commitmentand andsignaling, signaling,and, and,cencentrally, trally,collective collectiveand andindividual. individual. Let Letususfirst firstconnect connecta afew fewdots dotsofofthe theitems itemsininthe thelist listabove abovewith withtwo two vignettes, vignettes,just justtotogive givethe theflavor flavorofofhow howthe theidea ideatranscends transcendscategories. categories.
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PROLOGU PROLOGU E,E,PART PART1 1
Antaeus AntaeusWhacked Whacked
Never Never run run away away from from Mamma— Mamma— I keep I keep finding finding warlords— warlords— Bob Bob Rubin Rubin and and hishis trade— trade— Systems Systems like like carcar accidents accidents
A A
ntaeus ntaeuswas wasa agiant, giant,ororrather rathera asemisemigiant giantofofsorts, sorts,the theliteral literalson son ofofMother MotherEarth, Earth,Gaea, Gaea,and andPoseidon, Poseidon,the thegod godofofthe thesea. sea.He Hehad had a astrange strangeoccupation, occupation,which whichconsisted consistedofofforcing forcingpassersby passersbyininhishiscouncountry, try,(Greek) (Greek)Libya, Libya,totowrestle; wrestle;hishisthing thingwas wastotopin pinhishisvictims victimstotothe the ground groundand andcrush crushthem. them.This Thismacabre macabrehobby hobbywas wasapparently apparentlythe theexexpression pressionofoffilial filialdevotion; devotion;Antaeus Antaeusaimed aimedatatbuilding buildinga atemple templetotohishis father, father,Poseidon, Poseidon,using usingforforraw rawmaterial materialthe theskulls skullsofofhishisvictims. victims. Antaeus Antaeuswas wasdeemed deemedtotobebeinvincible, invincible,but butthere therewas wasa atrick. trick.He Hedederived rivedhishisstrength strengthfrom fromcontact contactwith withhishismother, mother,Earth. Earth.Physically Physicallysepaseparated ratedfrom fromcontact contactwith withEarth, Earth,hehelost lostallallhishispowers. powers.Hercules, Hercules,asaspart part ofofhishistwelve twelvelabors labors(in(inone onevariation variationofofthe thetale), tale),had hadforforhomework homeworktoto whack whackAntaeus. Antaeus.He Hemanaged managedtotoliftlifthim himoffoffthe theground groundand andterminated terminated him himbybycrushing crushinghim himasashishisfeet feetremained remainedout outofofcontact contactwith withhishis mamma. mamma. We Weretain retainfrom fromthis thisfirst firstvignette vignettethat, that,just justlike likeAntaeus, Antaeus,you youcannot cannot separate separateknowledge knowledgefrom fromcontact contactwith withthe theground. ground.Actually, Actually,you youcannot cannot separate separateanything anythingfrom fromcontact contactwith withthe theground. ground.And Andthe thecontact contactwith with the thereal realworld worldis isdone donevia viaskin skinininthe thegame— game— having havingananexposure exposuretotothe the real realworld, world,and andpaying payinga aprice priceforforitsitsconsequences, consequences,good goodororbad. bad.The The abrasions abrasionsofofyour yourskin skinguide guideyour yourlearning learningand anddiscovery, discovery,a amechanism mechanism ofoforganic organicsignaling, signaling,what whatthe theGreeks Greekscalled calledpathemata pathematamathemata mathemata
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(“guide (“guideyour yourlearning learningthrough throughpain,” pain,”something somethingmothers mothersofofyoung youngchilchildren drenknow knowrather ratherwell). well).I have I haveshown shownininAntifragile Antifragilethat thatmost mostthings things that thatwewebelieve believewere were“invented” “invented”bybyuniversities universitieswere wereactually actuallydiscovered discovered bybytinkering tinkeringand andlater laterlegitimized legitimizedbybysome sometype typeofofformalization. formalization.The The knowledge knowledgeweweget getbybytinkering, tinkering,via viatrial trialand anderror, error,experience, experience,and andthe the workings workingsofoftime, time,ininother otherwords, words,contact contactwith withthe theearth, earth,is isvastly vastlysupesuperior riortotothat thatobtained obtainedthrough throughreasoning, reasoning,something somethingselfselfserving servinginstituinstitutions tionshave havebeen beenvery verybusy busyhiding hidingfrom fromus.us. Next, Next,wewewill willapply applythis thistotowhat whatis ismiscalled miscalled“policy “policymaking.” making.” LIBYA LIBYA AFTER AFTER ANTAEUS ANTAEUS
Second Secondvignette. vignette.AsAsI am I amwriting writingthese theselines, lines,a afew fewthousand thousandyears yearslater, later, Libya, Libya,the theputative putativeland landofofAntaeus, Antaeus,now nowhas hasslave slavemarkets, markets,asasa aresult result ofofa afailed failedattempt attemptatatwhat whatis iscalled called“regime “regimechange” change”ininorder ordertoto“re“remove movea adictator.” dictator.”Yes, Yes,inin2017, 2017,improvised improvisedslave slavemarkets marketsininparking parkinglots, lots, where wherecaptured capturedsub-Saharan sub-SaharanAfricans Africansare aresold soldtotothe thehighest highestbidders. bidders. AAcollection collectionofofpeople peopleclassifi classifi ededasasinterventionistas interventionistas(to(toname namenames names ofofpeople peopleoperating operatingatatthe thetime timeofofwriting: writing:Bill BillKristol, Kristol,Thomas ThomasFriedFried*)*who man, man,and andothers others ) whopromoted promotedthe theIraq Iraqinvasion invasionofof2003, 2003,asaswell wellasas the theremoval removalofofthe theLibyan Libyanleader leaderinin2011, 2011,are areadvocating advocatingthe theimposition imposition ofofadditional additionalsuch suchregime regimechange changeononanother anotherbatch batchofofcountries, countries,which which includes includesSyria, Syria,because becauseit ithas hasa a“dictator.” “dictator.” These Theseinterventionistas interventionistasand andtheir theirfriends friendsininthe theU.S. U.S.State StateDepartDepartment menthelped helpedcreate, create,train, train,and andsupport supportIslamist Islamistrebels, rebels,then then“moder“moderates,” ates,”but butwho whoeventually eventuallyevolved evolvedtotobecome becomepart partofofal-alQaeda, Qaeda,the the same, same,very verysame sameal-alQaeda Qaedathat thatblew blewupupthe theNew NewYork YorkCity Citytowers towers during duringthe theevents eventsofofSeptember September11, 11,2001. 2001.They Theymysteriously mysteriouslyfailed failedtoto remember rememberthat thatal-alQaeda Qaedaitself itselfwas wascomposed composedofof“moderate “moderaterebels” rebels” created created(or (orreared) reared)bybythe theU.S. U.S.totohelp helpfight fightSoviet SovietRussia Russiabecause, because,asas wewewill willsee, see,these theseeducated educatedpeople’s people’sreasoning reasoningdoesn’t doesn’tentail entailsuch suchre-recursions. cursions. SoSowewetried triedthat thatthing thingcalled calledregime regimechange changeininIraq, Iraq,and andfailed failedmisermiserably. ably.We Wetried triedthat thatthing thingagain againininLibya, Libya,and andthere thereare arenow nowactive activeslave slave markets marketsininthe theplace. place.But Butwewesatisfi satisfi ededthe theobjective objectiveofof“removing “removinga adictadicta* *Interventionistas Interventionistas have have in in common common one one main main attribute: attribute: they they areare usually usually notnot weight weight lifters. lifters.
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tor.” tor.”ByBythe theexact exactsame samereasoning, reasoning,a adoctor doctorwould wouldinject injecta apatient patientwith with “moderate” “moderate” cancer cancer cells cells toto improve improve hishis cholesterol cholesterol numbers, numbers, and and proudly proudly claim claimvictory victoryafter afterthe thepatient patientis isdead, dead,particularly particularlyif ifthe thepostmortem postmortem shows showsremarkable remarkablecholesterol cholesterolreadings. readings.But Butweweknow knowthat thatdoctors doctors don’t don’tinfl infl ictictfatal fatal“cures” “cures”upon uponpatients, patients,orordon’t don’tdodoit itininsuch sucha acrude crude way, way,and andthere thereis isa clear a clearreason reasonforforthat. that.Doctors Doctorsusually usuallyhave havesome somemodmodicum icumofofskin skinininthe thegame, game,a avague vagueunderstanding understandingofofcomplex complexsystems, systems, and andmore morethan thana acouple coupleofofmillennia millenniaofofincremental incrementalethics ethicsdetermining determining their theirconduct. conduct. And Anddon’t don’tgive giveupupononlogic, logic,intellect, intellect,and andeducation, education,because becausetight tightbut but higher higherorder orderlogical logicalreasoning reasoningwould wouldshow showthat, that,unless unlessone onefinds findssome some way waytotoreject rejectallallempirical empiricalevidence, evidence,advocating advocatingregime regimechanges changesimplies implies also also advocating advocating slavery slavery oror some some similar similar degradation degradation ofofthe the country country (since (since these thesehave havebeen beentypical typicaloutcomes). outcomes).SoSothese theseinterventionistas interventionistasnot notonly only lack lackpractical practicalsense, sense,and andnever neverlearn learnfrom fromhistory, history,but butthey theyeven evenfail failatat pure purereasoning, reasoning,which whichthey theydrown drownininelaborate elaboratesemi semi abstract abstractbuzzwordbuzzwordladen ladendiscourse. discourse. Their Theirthree threeflaws: flaws:1)1)they theythink thinkininstatics staticsnot notdynamics, dynamics,2)2)they theythink think ininlow, low,not nothigh, high,dimensions, dimensions,3)3)they theythink thinkininterms termsofofactions, actions,never never interactions. interactions.We Wewill willsee seeininmore moredepth depththroughout throughoutthe thebook bookthis thisdefect defect ofofmental mentalreasoning reasoningbybyeducated educated(or, (or,rather, rather,semisemieducated) educated)fools. fools.I can I can flesh fleshout outthe thethree threedefects defectsforfornow. now. The Thefirst firstflaw flawis isthat thatthey theyare areincapable incapableofofthinking thinkingininsecond second steps stepsand andunaware unawareofofthe theneed needfor forthem— them— and andabout aboutevery everypeasant peasantinin Mongolia, Mongolia,every everywaiter waiterininMadrid, Madrid,and andevery everycarcarservice serviceoperator operatorinin San SanFrancisco Franciscoknows knowsthat thatreal reallife lifehappens happenstotohave havesecond, second,third, third, fourth, fourth,nth nthsteps. steps.The Thesecond secondflaw flawis isthat thatthey theyare arealso alsoincapable incapableofof distinguishing distinguishingbetween betweenmultidimensional multidimensionalproblems problemsand andtheir theirsinglesingledimensional dimensionalrepresentations— representations— like likemultidimensional multidimensionalhealth healthand anditsits stripped, stripped,cholesterolcholesterolreading readingreduction. reduction.They Theycan’t can’tget getthe theidea ideathat, that, empirically, empirically,complex complexsystems systemsdodonot nothave haveobvious obviousoneonedimensional dimensional causecauseandandeffeff ect ectmechanisms, mechanisms,and andthat thatunder underopacity, opacity,you youdodonot notmess mess with withsuch sucha asystem. system.An Anextension extensionofofthis thisdefect: defect:they theycompare comparethe theacactions tionsofofthe the“dictator” “dictator”totothose thoseofofthe theprime primeminister ministerofofNorway Norwayoror Sweden, Sweden,not nottotothose thoseofofthe thelocal localalternative. alternative.The Thethird thirdflaw flawis isthat that they theycan’t can’tforecast forecastthe theevolution evolutionofofthose thoseone onehelps helpsbybyattacking, attacking,oror the themagnifi magnifi cation cationone onegets getsfrom fromfeedback. feedback.
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* * LUDIS LUDIS DEDE ALIENO ALIENO CORIO CORIO
And Andwhen whena ablowup blowuphappens, happens,they theyinvoke invokeuncertainty, uncertainty,something somethingcalled called a aBlack BlackSwan Swan(a(ahighhighimpact impactunexpected unexpectedevent), event),after aftera abook bookbybya a(very) (very) stubborn stubbornfellow, fellow,not notrealizing realizingthat thatone oneshould shouldnot notmess messwith witha asystem systemif if the theresults resultsare arefraught fraughtwith withuncertainty, uncertainty,or,or,more moregenerally, generally,should shouldavoid avoid engaging engagingininananaction actionwith witha abig bigdownside downsideif ifone onehas hasnonoidea ideaofofthe theoutoutcomes. comes.What Whatis iscrucial crucialhere hereis isthat thatthe thedownside downsidedoesn’t doesn’taffaff ectectthe theinterinterventionist. ventionist.He Hecontinues continueshishispractice practicefrom fromthe thecomfort comfortofofhishisthermally thermally regulated regulatedsuburban suburbanhouse housewith witha twoa twocar cargarage, garage,a dog, a dog,and anda small a smallplay play area areawith withpesticidepesticidefree freegrass grassforforhishisoverprotected overprotected2.2 2.2children. children. Imagine Imaginepeople peoplewith withsimilar similarmental mentalhandicaps, handicaps,people peoplewho whodon’t don’t understand understandasymmetry, asymmetry,piloting pilotingplanes. planes.Incompetent Incompetentpilots, pilots,those thosewho who cannot cannotlearn learnfrom fromexperience, experience,orordon’t don’tmind mindtaking takingrisks risksthey theydon’t don’tununderstand, derstand,may maykill killmany. many.But Butthey theywill willthemselves themselvesend endupupatatthe thebottom bottom of,of,say, say,the theBermuda BermudaTriangle, Triangle,and andcease ceasetotorepresent representa athreat threattotoothers others and andmankind. mankind.Not Nothere. here. SoSoweweend endupuppopulating populatingwhat whatwewecall callthe theintelligentsia intelligentsiawith withpeople people who whoare aredelusional, delusional,literally literallymentally mentallyderanged, deranged,simply simplybecause becausethey they never neverhave havetotopay payforforthe theconsequences consequencesofoftheir theiractions, actions,repeating repeatingmodmodernist ernistslogans slogansstripped strippedofofallalldepth depth(for (forinstance, instance,they theykeep keepusing usingthe the term term“democracy” “democracy”while whileencouraging encouragingheadcutters; headcutters;democracy democracyis issomesomething thingthey theyread readabout aboutiningraduate graduatestudies). studies).InIngeneral, general,when whenyou youhear hear someone someoneinvoking invokingabstract abstractmodernistic modernisticnotions, notions,you youcan canassume assumethat that they theygot gotsome someeducation education(but (butnot notenough, enough,ororininthe thewrong wrongdiscipline) discipline) and andhave havetoo toolittle littleaccountability. accountability. Now Nowsome someinnocent innocentpeople— people— Ezidis, Ezidis,Christian Christianminorities minoritiesininthe the Near Near(and (andMiddle) Middle)East, East,Mandeans, Mandeans,Syrians, Syrians,Iraqis, Iraqis,and andLibyans— Libyans— had had toto pay pay a price a price forfor the the mistakes mistakes ofofthese these interventionistas interventionistas currently currently sitting sitting inincomfortable comfortableairairconditioned conditionedoffi offi ces. ces.This, This,wewewill willsee, see,violates violatesthe the very verynotion notionofofjustice justicefrom fromitsitsprebiblical, prebiblical,Babylonian Babylonianinception— inception— asas well wellasasthe theethical ethicalstructure, structure,that thatunderlying underlyingmatrix matrixthanks thankstotowhich which humanity humanityhas hassurvived. survived. The Theprinciple principleofofintervention, intervention,like likethat thatofofhealers, healers,is isfirst firstdodononoharm harm (primum (primumnon nonnocere); nocere);even evenmore, more,wewewill willargue, argue,those thosewho whodon’t don’ttake take risks risksshould shouldnever neverbebeinvolved involvedininmaking makingdecisions. decisions. * *Playing Playing with with others’ others’ lives. lives.
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Further, Further, We Wehave havealways alwaysbeen beencrazy crazybut butweren’t weren’tskilled skilledenough enoughtotodestroy destroy the theworld. world.Now Nowwewecan. can.
We Wewill willreturn returntotothe the“peacemaking” “peacemaking”interventionistas, interventionistas,and andexamine examine how howtheir theirpeace peaceprocesses processescreate createdeadlocks, deadlocks,asaswith withthe theIsraeliIsraeliPalestinian Palestinianproblem. problem. WARLORDS WARLORDS ARE ARE STILL STILL AROUND AROUND
This Thisidea ideaofofskin skinininthe thegame gameis iswoven woveninto intohistory: history:historically, historically,allallwarwarlords lordsand andwarmongers warmongerswere werewarriors warriorsthemselves, themselves,and, and,with witha afew fewcuricurious ousexceptions, exceptions,societies societieswere wererun runbybyrisk risktakers, takers,not notrisk risktransferors. transferors. Prominent Prominentpeople peopletook tookrisks— risks— considerably considerablymore morerisks risksthan thanordiordinary narycitizens. citizens.The TheRoman Romanemperor emperorJulian Julianthe theApostate, Apostate,about aboutwhom whom much muchlater, later,died diedononthe thebattlefi battlefi eld eldfighting fightingininthe theneverneverending endingwar waronon the thePersian Persianfrontier— frontier— while whileemperor. emperor.One Onemay mayonly onlyspeculate speculateabout aboutJuJulius liusCaesar, Caesar,Alexander, Alexander,and andNapoleon, Napoleon,owing owingtotothe theusual usuallegendlegendbuilding buildingbybyhistorians, historians,but buthere herethe theproof proofis isstark. stark.There Thereis isnonobetter better historical historicalevidence evidenceofofananemperor emperortaking takinga afrontline frontlineposition positionininbattle battle than thana aPersian Persianspear spearlodged lodgedininhishischest chest(Julian (Julianomitted omittedtotowear wearprotecprotective tivearmor). armor).One Oneofofhishispredecessors, predecessors,Valerian, Valerian,was wascaptured capturedononthe the same samefrontier, frontier,and andwas wassaid saidtotohave havebeen beenused usedasasa ahuman humanfootstool footstoolbyby the thePersian PersianShapur Shapurwhen whenmounting mountinghishishorse. horse.And Andthe thelast lastByzantine Byzantine emperor, emperor,Constantine ConstantineXIXIPalaeologus, Palaeologus,was waslast lastseen seenwhen whenheheremoved removed hishispurple purpletoga, toga,then thenjoined joinedIoannis IoannisDalmatus Dalmatusand andhishiscousin cousinTheophiTheophiluslusPalaeologus Palaeologustotocharge chargeTurkish Turkishtroops troopswith withtheir theirswords swordsabove abovetheir their heads, heads,proudly proudlyfacing facingcertain certaindeath. death.Yet Yetlegend legendhas hasit itthat thatConstantine Constantine had hadbeen beenoffoff ered ereda deal a dealininthe theevent eventofofa surrender. a surrender.Such Suchdeals dealsare arenot notforfor selfselfrespecting respectingkings. kings. These Theseare arenot notisolated isolatedanecdotes. anecdotes.The Thestatistical statisticalreasoner reasonerininthis thisauauthor thoris isquite quiteconvinced: convinced:less lessthan thana athird thirdofofRoman Romanemperors emperorsdied diedinin their theirbeds— beds— and andone onecan canargue arguethat thatgiven giventhat thatonly onlyfew fewofofthese thesedied diedofof really reallyold oldage, age,had hadthey theylived livedlonger, longer,they theywould wouldhave havefallen falleneither eithertotoa a coup coupororininbattle. battle. Even Eventoday, today,monarchs monarchsderive derivetheir theirlegitimacy legitimacyfrom froma asocial socialcontract contract that thatrequires requiresphysical physicalriskrisktaking. taking.The TheBritish BritishRoyal Royalfamily familymade madesure sure
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