AQ: Australian Quarterly 86.2

Vol 86 Issue 2 Apr–Jun 2015

Fossil Fuel Divestment Grassroots Revolution or Risky Symbolism?

Getting Science in the spotlight: AusSMC and Scimex

The New Financial Economy

Magic beans and Dragons: Pseudoscience

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CONTENTS

AQ Vol 86 Issue 2 APR–JUN 2015

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Getting Science in the Spotlight:

Strand or Be Stranded:

AusSMC and Scimex, the new Science Media Exchange

Dr Richard Denniss and Tom Swann

Climate Change and the New Financial Democracy:

The growing case for Divestment

Dr Susannah Eliott, Dr Melanie Bagg and Dr Joseph Milton

IMAGE CREDITS: Please see article placements

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The dangers of a high carb(on) diet Julian Poulter

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Magic Beans and Dragons:

Robbing Peter to Fuel Paul:

Building Trust with Industry:

The war against pseudoscience and misinformation

The misleading politics of Divestment

25 years of lessons for policy makers

Dr Lauren Wright

Sinclair Davidson

Dr Tony Peacock

40 References COVER IMAGE: © Fotolia – Dzianis Kazlouski

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AQ

a word

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Australian Quarterly

vidence. As rational beings we like to think that it’s at the heart of all of our decision-making; we aspire to live in an objective world where known facts lead to informed choices. The problem is, of course, that we all have our own separate worldview and – though we agreed that facts are immutable – we have a habit of absorbing evidence very differently.

This year marks an important milestone for the transmission of scientific knowledge in Australia. Ten years ago the Australian Science Media Centre (AusSMC) was created, with the sole purpose of increasing evidence-based reporting in our media. They have enjoyed fantastic success and are once again set to change how our media interacts with ‘the facts’.

In this edition we hear the latest from AusSMC and preview their new science communication platform, Scimex.

Also on the topic of evidence, pseudoscience gets put in the spotlight by AQ’s new scientistat-large, Dr Lauren Wright.

The bulk of this issue, however, has been devoted to a growing debate that only continues to get louder – the divestment of fossil fuels.

Are financial dynamics the only way to force the world to take responsible climate change action? Is the divestment campaign only a symbolic protest that could harm the Australian economy through its simplistic understanding of markets? Are we sitting on a carbon-crash and, if so, what can be done about it?

AQ brings together three of the most prominent voices on the carbon economy to get an allsided view of divestment so that you can make up your own mind.

And last but not least, Australia’s Cooperative Research Centres (CRC) Programme is currently under its periodic evaluation. CRC Association CEO, Dr Tony Peacock takes the time to look back over the CRCs’ history of funding scientific innovation across Australia for over two decades.

And feel free to have your say via our Facebook (AQAustralianQuarterly) or Twitter (@AQjournal).

‘A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence’ – David Hume

Grant Mills

Editor

Notes for Contributors AQ welcomes submissions of articles and manuscripts on contemporary economic, political, social and philosophical issues, especially where scientific insights have a bearing and where the issues impact on Australian and global public life.

All contributions are unpaid. Manuscripts should be original and have not been submitted or published elsewhere, although in negotiation with the Editor, revised prior publications or presentations may be included. Submissions may be subject to peer review. Word length is between 1000 and 3000 words. Longer and shorter lengths may be considered. Articles should be written and argued clearly so they can be easily read by an informed, but non-specialist, readership. A short biographical note of up to 50 words should accompany the work. The Editor welcomes accompanying images. Authors of published articles are required to assign copyright to the Australian Institute of Policy and Science, including signing of a License to Publish which includes acceptance of online archiving and access through JSTOR (from 2010) or other online publication as negotiated by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. In return, authors have a non exclusive license to publish the paper elsewhere at a future date. The inclusion of references and endnotes is the option of the author. Our preference is for these to be available from the author on request. Otherwise, references, endnotes and abbreviations should be used sparingly and kept to a minimum. Articles appearing in AQ are indexed ABC POL SCI: A Bibliography of Contents: Political Science and Government.

The International Political Science Abstracts publishes abstracts of political science articles appearing in AQ. Copyright is owned by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science. Persons wishing to reproduce an article, or part thereof, must obtain the Institute’s permission. Contributions should be emailed to: The Editor at info@aips.net.au

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Editor: Grant Mills Assistant Editor: Camille Thomson Design: Art Graphic Design, ACT Printing: Newstyle Printing, SA Subscriptions: www.aips.net.au/aq-magazine/ subscribe enquiries to: Camille Thomson, General Manager, AIPS, PO Box M145, Missenden Road NSW 2050 Australia Phone: +61 2 9351 0819 Fax: +61 2 9351 0758 Email: info@aips.net.au Website: www.aips.net.au/ aq-magazine/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/ AQAustralianQuarterly ISSN 1443-3605 AQ (Australian Quarterly) is published by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science.

This project is supported by the Commonwealth Government through a grant-in-aid administered by the Department of Finance and Deregulation.

ACN 000 025 507 The AIPS is an independent body which promotes discussion and understanding of political, social and scientific issues in Australia. It is not connected with any political party or sectional group. Opinions expressed in AQ are those of the authors.

Directors of the Australian Institute of Policy and Science: Richard G McLean (Chair) Leon R Beswick Andrew Goodsall Maria Kavallaris Janelle Kyd Ross McKinnon Peter M McMahon Peter D Rathjen Lance Twomey Robert Wells

Getting Science in the Spotlight: AusSMC and Scimex, the new Science Media Exchange

Since the Australian Science Media Centre (AusSMC) first opened its doors in 2005, the media landscape at home and abroad has changed beyond recognition. Some of those changes, such as the loss of specialist journalists and the implosion of the mainstream media’s business model, have been undeniably negative, but there have been positive changes as well.

ARTICLE BY: Dr Susannah Eliott, Dr Melanie Bagg and Dr Joseph Milton

image: © Nic McPhee-Flickr

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n almost a decade of championing science journalism, the Centre has seen a significant increase in the coverage of scientific research in the Australian mainstream media, and at the same time an increase in public interest in science. It’s a very positive change, and one in which the Centre is proud to have played a part.

During that time, Science Media Centres have popped up in a variety of locations around the world, from Tokyo to Berlin and from Beijing to Ottawa. Those global Centres are loosely affiliated and have all stemmed from a grassroots desire to see

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Science news

Making Science Enticing The AusSMC’s Top 10 stories of 2014 Ebola went viral

The rest of the world squared up to climate change

Fear gripped the world as the Ebola virus spread across West Africa in the biggest outbreak of the deadly disease since its discovery in 1976. The World Health Organization reported the outbreak in March, and by August it had declared an international public health emergency.

Since then, the number of reported cases has climbed above 17,000 and more than 6,000 have died, mainly in West Africa.

2014 may go down in history as the year the world started to accept the need for serious carbon emission cuts. In October, the EU agreed to slash CO2 to 40 per cent of 1990 levels by 2030, and in November the US and China - the world’s biggest CO2 emitters - finally agreed to start reducing carbon. The US said it would cut CO2 by 26 to 28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2025, while China said it will ensure its emissions peak in 2030. Meanwhile, Australia attracted criticism from the international community for not taking enough action.

European scientists landed a probe on a comet

Colossal fossil – the biggest ever dinosaur was unearthed

The roots of sex were seen to be sideways

In October, Australian fossil studies identified the very first beasts to make the beast with two backs - a type of 385 million-year-old Scottish armoured fish called an antiarch. Far from adopting the missionary position, said the scientists, the world’s first lovers copulated in a bizarre square-dance-like display. But the entire animal kingdom subsequently gave the whole thing up and went back to fertilising eggs externally - presumably after the development of a really terrible headache.

We unliked Facebook’s antisocial experiment In November, European space scientists landed the fridge-sized Philae probe on a speeding comet. The incredible scientific feat involved a decade-long 500 million km trip through space aboard the Rosetta spacecraft to rendezvous with a lump of space rock travelling at 135,000 km/h.

The team lost contact with Philae soon afterwards, but not before the plucky lander had sent back a raft of scientific data, including evidence of carbon compounds - the basis of all life on Earth.

After a local farm worker stumbled across some intriguing remains in the Argentinian desert, scientists dug up the remarkably well preserved skeletons of seven titanosaur sauropod dinosaurs in May. The gigantic herbivorous beasts, which roamed the forests around 100 million years ago are thought to have weighed as much as 14 African elephants. They stood a towering 20m (seven stories) high, and were 40m long, making them the largest animals ever known to walk the Earth.

Facebook came under fire in July as it emerged it had made unwilling, and unaware, guinea pigs of 700,000 users by allowing researchers to manipulate their news feeds for a week. The affected Facebookers saw either only positive or only negative posts, the intention being to see how emotionally-charged information spreads on social networks.

PNAS, the journal which published the research, issued an ‘Editorial Expression of Concern’, distancing itself from Facebook’s failure to alert users to the study.

Each year the AusSMC trawls through thousands of science stories from around the world to pick 10 of the very best

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making science enticing

www.smc.org.au/2014/12/top-ten-science-stories-2014/

We’ve killed half of all Earth’s animals in less than a lifetime

A paralysed man walked again, and the answer was right under his nose

A Japanese stem cell fraud led to shame, sackings and suicide

In September, the World Wide Fund for Nature claimed that humans have wiped out more than half of all Earth’s animals in less than 50 years. The report is based on a measure of extinction, The Living Planet Index, however, some scientists questioned the claims, suggesting the index is inaccurate. And in July, CSIRO published a report warning that things are looking grim for Australia’s native mammals too - 113 species are extinct or threatened, and we have the world’s worst record for mammal extinction.

The main culprits, according to the report, are feral cats.

October gave us one of the year’s best feel good science stories; Polish and UK scientists announced that Darek Fidyka, a Polish man paralysed from the chest down in a knife attack in 2010, was able to walk again following a cell transplant from his nasal cavity into his spinal cord.

They injected cells called olfactory ensheathing cells above and below the wound, and bridged the gap in his spinal cord with thin strips of nerve tissue taken from his ankle. The transplanted cells stimulated Fidyka’s spinal cord cells to regenerate and grow across the nerve grafts, allowing him to walk with the aid of a frame.

What started off as a miraculoussounding medical breakthrough, soon turned into one of the biggest science scandals in recent history. A Japanese researcher, Haruko Obokata, claimed to have discovered a simple, cheap and effective technique for generating stem cells from ordinary cells - the holy grail of stem cell science. But, as time went on, the work started to look decidedly shaky.

Other scientists were unable to replicate the results, and issues with the research papers emerged. Obokata was found guilty of professional misconduct and the journal Nature retracted the research. In a sad twist, Obokata’s supervisor took his own life in August.

Richard III’s remains revealed his life, lunch and grisly end

In May, 3D scans revealed the ‘carpark’ king was no limping hunchback, despite suffering from scoliosis. In August, analysis of his teeth and bones revealed that, at least towards the end of his life, he enjoyed up to three litres of alcohol daily, and had a taste for scoffing swans, egrets and herons. In September, we learned of

Richard’s grisly end – at least 11 injuries, including nine to the head, suggested he probably died a violent death on the battlefield. Then, in December, DNA samples revealed that Richard’s living relatives may be the product of ancient adultery – calling centuries of the British royal bloodline into question.

scimex.org

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The war against pseudoscience and misinformation In a world of mass-information and insatiable media there is little we can do to stem the drip, drip, drip of published ‘studies’ that persist in eroding our knowledge base with abominably bad science and illogical conclusions. Bad science is all too often captivating for people in search of easy answers – answers to relatively straightforward questions: How can I lose weight effectively? Are these drugs safe for my children?

Why do I feel unwell?

ARTICLE BY: Dr Lauren Wright

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image: © W. Carter-Wiki

Magic Beans and Dragons:

ometimes the clear waters of fact and evidence are muddied unintentionally, and sometimes they’re muddied by science with malicious intent. So how can non-scientists comb apart the lies from the truth, when to the untrained eye it all seems plausible? Like a winding path through a dark forest, the road to the truth is sometimes really difficult to navigate.

People are confused by the presence of ‘scientific peer-reviewed journals’ that are pure hogwash, and by ‘doctors’ with a megaphone to the world that seem to lack even the most basic knowledge of the science behind their recommendations.

Strand or Be Stranded:

The growing case for Divestment In just a couple of years, the fossil fuel divestment movement has grown from a few scattered campus campaigns into global momentum attracting an astonishing level of public attention and debate. In 2013, an Oxford study argued fossil fuel divestment was the fastest growing divestment movement in history.1 Since then the movement has found commitments from groups as diverse as the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, The World Council of Churches, the British Medical Association and Stanford University.2 ARTICLE BY: DR Richard Denniss and Tom Swann

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n Australia a number of religious and philanthropic groups have divested.

There are campaigns on most university campuses and two universities have made first steps. In consumer campaigns, individuals are diverting their business from banks (any of the big four) or super funds (most of them) that invest in fossil fuels. Survey results from The Australia Institute indicate there is potentially $240 billion in super fund accounts alone at risk of moving.3 A small but growing number of super funds have started blocking investments in fossil fuels.

The finance industry is paying close attention. But divestment is not just a trend among morally motivated consumers.

IMAGE: Light Brigading-Flickr

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Climate change and the new financial democracy: The dangers of a high carb(on) diet

Climate change is the lens through which many of our institutions are increasingly scrutinised. In terms of financial and economic risk, the short termism of corporations and their lobbyists have combined with the short termism of governments to ensure that the usual risk management steps have been overlooked in favour of vested interest.

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ARTICLE BY: Julian Poulter

ut central to this short termism are the little understood sections of the finance community known as the Asset Owners, which consist of pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations and endowments. Together, they are the truly long-term investors with an investment horizon of twenty years or more. The Asset Owners, as their name implies, actually own the companies but don’t actually choose which ones they own and which

IMAGE: © AODP

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Climate change and the new financial democracy

they don’t. This selection is done by their lackeys, the fund managers who write contracts with the Asset Owners that include short-term performance commissions.

Oddly, the Asset Owners actually sign these contracts and then seem to be surprised when longer term risks are ignored, even if they could have potentially devastating consequences for their portfolios.

Climate change however, is changing their world forever and providing unique challenges that are starting to force them to take notice of the short termism bias that is not just under their noses but for which they are directly responsible.

Following their escape from scrutiny during the global financial crisis, they have become increasingly aware that the climate-change equivalent of the sub-prime crisis, known as ‘sub-clime’, is a real possibility. Asset Owners are realising that they are accountable for managing systemic risks, they’ve been warned and that everyone else around them has their excuses well rehearsed, except governments. This is unfortunate for asset owners since in all likelihood governments will point the finger at them for any losses caused by inevitable panic climate regulation.

This regulation would of course have been smooth and gradual, save for a complete lack of courage and conviction by the politicians whose total lack of respect for their citizens is now only balanced by the thanks of the high carbon corporations whose lives they are extending.

Whilst climate change demands leadership on the scale of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project combined, we all know it has been hijacked by a combination of national and corporate interests with most of the latter driving the former.

People’s pride in our democratic processes has prevented us from processing the dark facts around the scale of hijacking over an issue that really shouldn’t need too much thought once the basics of financial risk management are considered. The

politician’s scandalous lack of accountability is rivalled in the finance world, as it is the 300-400 million pension members in the world who collectively own the majority of assets that threaten their economic future.

The fact that these assets are managed by fund managers and company boards who have greater opportunities to cut and run and thus care less about the possibility of long-term stranded assets is rapidly becoming the most immoral and yet understated issue of our time.

If the 300 million pension members are to reclaim accountability for their long term interests, they will need to stop Wall Street and the City of London using the industry tools of short termism as their main drivers.

Members will thus need to beef up their financial literacy to compete not just on equal terms but to play finance in its own back yard and win.

The success of the fossil fuel divestment campaign in recent times goes to the very heart of the man-on-the-street’s understanding of finance. The concept is so beautifully simple that non-financiers can easily grasp the notion that withdrawing somebody’s money stops them digging up fossil fuels from under the ground.

Go a tiny bit deeper into the issue and you lose half the populous with every successive level of detail. For example, what about the world’s biggest miner BHP you might ask? Aha – thermal coal is in their portfolio….divest, divest! But what of the portfolio implications of divesting from a company with 5-10% of its earnings from thermal coal and finding that you have exited a large swathe of the global metals market? The next generation finance campaign will either have to nuance the portfolio carbon risk issue or hammer on the next most appealing topic, that of using your proxy voting influence.

To understand the root cause of the short termism over climate change, we must understand the problem that assets that emit greenhouse gases, or that are involved

The climatechange equivalent of the sub-prime crisis, known as ‘sub-clime’, is a real possibility.

in their production, are highly capital intensive, often 25-40 years in lifespan. They are expensive too – power plants, oil rigs, steel plants, etc. To build them requires upfront capital expenditure over a few years and then to sit back and wait for the cash to roll in. The market value of these assets and their companies are completely dependent on this scheduled flow of profits for over 20 years after they have been built. Any interruption or critically ‘expected’ interruption to this flow over the asset’s lifetime causes their value to shrink. The problem with the people who own these assets is that when they built them they weren’t really looking at the long term at all.

Now we return to the politicians who themselves are only incentivised over a 3-5

Fund managers and company boards who have greater opportunities to cut and run and thus care less about the possibility of long-term stranded assets is rapidly becoming the most immoral and yet understated issue of our time.

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Getting Science in the Spotlight – AusSMC and Scimex For a decade the Australian Science Media Centre has been critical in raising the standard of evidence-based reporting in Australia’s print, online and TV media. Since first opening its doors in 2005 the media landscape has changed beyond recognition, including the loss of specialist journalists and the implosion of the mainstream media’s business model. This year AusSMC launches Scimex, a brand new platform to connect scientists and journalists that could revolutionise how the press engages with, understands and reports science.

Susannah Eliott, Melanie Bagg and Joseph Milton

Robbing Peter to Fuel Paul When the Australian National University decided to sell its shares in companies that it deemed caused ‘social harm’, the move was widely criticised by community and business leaders, politicians and academics. The logic behind the fossil fuel divestment campaign has been both superficial and inconsistent, and their simplistic understanding of financial markets could be detrimental to the Australian economy without actually achieving any reduction in carbon emissions. Systematic pressure to make institutes, such as the ANU, make personal judgements with public money could well verge on stock market manipulation.

Sinclair Davidson

Strand or be Stranded: The Growing Case for Divestment In only a couple of years, the fossil fuel divestment movement has grown from a few scattered campus campaigns into global momentum attracting an astonishing level of public attention and debate. In 2013, an Oxford study argued fossil fuel divestment was the fastest growing divestment movement in history. Since then the movement has found commitments from groups as diverse as the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, The World Council of Churches, the British Medical Association and Stanford University. The world is sitting up and taking notice; a change is in the air.

IMAGE CREDITS: Please see article placements

Richard Denniss and Tom Swann

Magic Beans and Dragons In a world of mass-information and insatiable media there is little we can do to stem the drip, drip, drip of published ‘studies’ that persist in eroding our knowledge base with abominably bad science and illogical conclusions. Bad science is all too often captivating for people in search of easy answers. Why is pseudoscience so contagious?

And what does Nicholas Cage have to do with the number of people who drowning in the US? Lauren Wright