Petrochem Supplement

Page 1

Petrochem & energy

23

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Petrochemicals: A success story Jeddah: Khalil Hanware arab news staff

The petrochemicals sector has since its inception in the 1970s emerged as a key plank of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification agenda. As much as the sector does not constitute a direct alternative to the historically dominant oil sector, it allows the Kingdom to capitalize on its competitive advantage of cheap energy while ensuring a far higher degree of value-added to its oil wealth. This in turn is boosting the level of economic activity and employment in the Kingdom, trends that are set to further intensify in the coming years. The presence of 14 petrochemicals companies listed on the national stock exchange stands as testimony to the great and growing importance of this sector. Their annual revenues in 2011 reached SR 295.2 billion. These include national champions, most notably SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corp.), which are establishing an increasingly important international footprint. Petrochemical has an important position in Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification strategy with the national producers on track to supply more than 10 percent of all ethylene globally. Following a lull in response to the onset of the global crisis, investment activity has rebounded. For instance, total ethylene capacity of the sector is expected to more than double from 8 million metric tons in 2008 to 16.5 metric tons by 2015. SABIC alone intends to triple its output by 2020. Meeting this ambition is greatly facilitated by Saudi Arabia’s geographic location within easy access of some of the

The Karan gas field.

largest, and especially the most rapidly growing markets globally. A steadily growing proportion of the Kingdom’s hydrocarbons — whether unprocessed or processed — is destined for the dynamic emerging markets of Asia. At the same time, the industry is seeking to develop new downstream products, such as polyurethanes and polyamides while substantially boosting its research and development budget.

Further expansion will be supported by various initiatives including governmentsupported project finance. But the sector has also successfully tapped the equity and bond/sukuk markets. With the global oil markets looking increasingly tight with the marginal cost of extraction climbing relentlessly while demand keeps growing, the Saudi petrochemicals sector should benefit from a significantly competitive advantage globally

thanks to its low feedstock prices even if we allow for a progressive increase in their ethane input costs going forward. The limited availability of domestic natural gas is a concern, albeit one that new development by Saudi Aramco is trying to alleviate. Antidumping cases remain a potential challenge, but have diminished in importance in recent months. According to the Saudi Ports Authority, petrochemical exports from Saudi Arabia

rose by 16.1 percent y-o-y to 2.51mt in January 2012. Al-Rajhi Capita said in its latest report that growth in exports will be driven by routine plant shutdowns in Asia and not necessarily because of growing demand. In fact, China, the main importer of petrochemicals globally, has been slowing down in the past few quarters. The Chinese PMI remained weak since the start of the year and stood at 49.3 in April 2012. In January 2012, the Saudi government

postponed its plans to raise the prices of ethane and methane (currently $0.75/ mmbtu, which was set in 1998). However, given the significantly low levels of global gas prices, Al-Rajhi Bank said the Saudi government will not increase ethane prices in 2013, as it is keen to preserve the feedstock advantage for the local petrochemical producers. Fertilizers are key inputs for agricultural growth as they improve soil life as well as productivity. They are also used in industrial applications such as rubber, leather, paper & pulp industries, refrigeration systems, etc. With an ever-increasing global population, arable land per person is declining while demand for agricultural products is rising. This indicates a growing need to maximize production from farmland. Moreover, rising income level and demand for higher quality diet have resulted in higher demand for fruits, vegetables and protein from crop-fed livestock. Thus, there is a pressing need to improve efficiency of fertilizer manufacturing plants to develop agricultural products of high performance and to meet the deficit between production and consumption. Recently, use of agricultural products like corn and oil fruits as bio-energy sources has further stimulated demand for fertilizers, the Al-Rajhi Capital report said. After a sharp rise in basic petrochemical prices like ethylene and propylene due to plant shutdowns and higher feedstock costs (in line with crude prices), product prices are expected to witness a marginal correction for the remainder of 2012 on weak global demand and escalating euro zone concerns, Al-Rajhi Capital said.


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Petrochem Supplement by MM - Issuu