CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham
Laurie Kerr, FAIA, LEED AP Director of Policy, Urban Green Facades + April 16, 2015
Will we have to re-wrap New York to achieve Mayor de Blasio’s target of 80% carbon reductions by 2050?
NYC’S CARBON EMISSIONS ARE DOMINATED BY ITS BUILDINGS
70%
OF NYC’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS COME FROM ENERGY USED IN BUILDINGS
ACHIEVING 80 X 50 WILL REQUIRE HUGE ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES*
NEW CONSTRUCTION
65%
EXISTING BUILDINGS
45%
FUEL & POWER
LESS ENERGY THAN BUILDINGS BUILT TODAY, BY 2025 OR 2030
LESS ENERGY THAN THEY DO NOW, ON AVERAGE
• PHASE OUT OIL • ELECTRIFICATION OF 50% OF HEAT AND HOT WATER • (GRID TO BECOME MUCH CLEANER)
* This represents one possible scenario; one could, for example, relax the requirements on new construction, but then existing buildings would need to become even more efficient.
IMPROVING BUILDING ENVELOPE PERFORMANCE WILL BE CRITICAL
41%
OF NYC’S CARBON FROM BUILDINGS IS IMPACTED BY BUILDING ENVELOPES (HEATING + COOLING)
63%
IF LIGHTING IS INCLUDED
NEW CONSTRUCTION: ENERGY CODE SHIFT BY 2025 OR 2030 300
250
Commercial Office
Multifamily Residential
Code until Jan. 2015 Existing code and median
200
150
100
50
0
Code until Jan. 2015
WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR BUILDING ENVELOPES?
SMALLER BUILDINGS
• MORE ENVELOPE DOMINATED • MOVE TOWARD PASSIVE HOUSE-TYPE STANDARDS?
HIGHRISES
• NEED MODELS ACCEPTABLE TO R.E. INDUSTRY • NEED THE “2030 STANDARD” • WILL THERE BE A BIFURCATION BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL? • RESIDENTIAL: CLOSE TO A PASSIVE HOUSETYPE STRATEGY; NEED TO SOLVE TECHNICAL AND COST BARRIERS (LARGER, THICKER PANELS; THERMAL BRIDGING, ETC.) • COMMERCIAL: HEAT DOMINATED, SO WHAT IS THE ENVELOPE STRATEGY?
BUT NYC’S EXISTING BUILDINGS REPRESENT THE LARGER CHALLENGE
80%
BY 2050, ROUGHLY OF THE BUILDINGS IN NYC WILL BE BUILDINGS WE ALREADY HAVE TODAY*
*AND THERE ARE A MILLION OF THEM!
EXISTING BUILDINGS HAVE TO REDUCE 45% ON AVERAGE 300
250
Commercial Office
Multifamily Residential
Code until Jan. 2015 Existing code and median
200
150
100
50
0
Code until Jan. 2015
THIS IS ALSO AN UPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY FOR THE INDUSTRY
5.4 BILLION SQUARE FEET TO BE RETROFITTED
A QUARTILE APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM
Fraction of sector energy used by each quartile .4
Achieving a 45% sector wide reduction with a stepped quartile approach
Approx. 60% of sector energy is used in the bottom two quartiles
.25
Approx. 78% of sector savings comes from the bottom two quartiles
.4
60%
.25
.2
.2 45%
.15 .16
35% .14
.13
.15 20% .15 .12
WHAT HAPPENS TO ENVELOPES IN EACH QUARTILE?
QUARTILE
60%
4
VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:
3
DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:
2
STANDARD RETROFIT
1
MODEST RETROFIT
45% 35%
4
3
2
QUARTIL E
QUARTIL E
QUARTIL E
TH
RD
ND
20% .15
1
ST
QUARTIL E
• RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING • SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD? • SOME RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING
• ROOF INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING
• SEALING • (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/ OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)
≈ 75% OF NYC’S BUILDING STOCK WILL NEED ENVELOPE UPGRADES
QUARTILE
4
VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:
3
DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:
2
STANDARD RETROFIT
1
MODEST RETROFIT
• RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING • SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD? • SOME RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING
• ROOF INSULATION • NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING
• SEALING • (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/ OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)
NEED COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES
FAÇADE TYPES
• OLDER CURTAIN WALLS: DETAILING/ FEASIBILITY? • SIMPLE BRICK FACADES: WRAPPING • DECORATIVE MASONRY FACADES: INTERIOR INSULATION • ETC.
SCALING ISSUES
• COST EFFECTIVE, DURABLE SOLUTIONS • COORDINATE WITH LL87 AND WINDOW REPLACEMENT CYCLES (OVER 35 YEARS) • STRATEGIES FOR MINIMAL DISRUPTION • TRAINED WORKFORCE • SCALING MOST DIFFICULT FOR 1-4 FAMILIES: REPRESENT 850,000 PROPERTIES
If we do our jobs, much of New York will look different in 2050