Farm Bureau Press for January 31

JANUARY 31, 2020 • VOLUME 23 • ISSUE 2

Farm Bureau Press A PEEK INSIDE

ArFB’S HILLMAN SELECTED FOR NATIONAL BOARD POSITION Rich Hillman of Carlisle, recently elected president of Arkansas Farm Bureau, was selected Jan. 21 for a two-year term on the American Farm Bureau board of directors. He was elected to represent the Southern Region by delegates serving at the organization’s 101st annual convention in Austin, Texas.

The board guides the direction of the nation’s largest farm advocacy organization, which represents almost six million members in all 50 states and Puerto Rico.

A sixth-generation farmer, Hillman served 11 years as vice president of Arkansas Farm Bureau before being elected as president by the membership of ArFB in December. He raises rice, soybeans and wheat in Lonoke and Arkansas counties.

Photo Coverage of the 101st Annual American Farm Bureau Convention & Trade Show, Including: YF&R Women’s Leadership Committee Business Session President Trump Arkansas FFA Officers Arkansas 4-H Officers page 2 - 3.

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Arkansas Ag Leaders | Gov.Asa Hutchinson hosted Arkansas Farm Bureau’s officers at the Governor’s Mansion today for a discussion about the state of agriculture, and posed afterward for a picture. Shown (left to right) are ArFB President Rich Hillman of Carlisle, secretary-treasurer Dan Wright of Waldron, Gov. Hutchinson, vice president Mike Freeze of Little Rock, executive vice president Warren Carter and Arkansas Sec. of Agriculture Wes Ward.

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AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION ANNUAL CONVENTION & TRADE SHOW The 101st consecutive American Farm Bureau Federation’s Annual Convention & Trade Show was held Jan. 17 through Jan. 22 in Austin, Texas. Members were on hand to participate in educational workshops and sessions, tour farms and attend a speech by President Donald Trump. The Arkansas Young Farmers and Ranchers had competitors in Excellence in Ag, the Achievement Award and the Discussion Meet.

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1) Taylor Wiseman of Vilonia, a graduate student at the University of Arkansas, made the Sweet 16 of the YF&R Discussion Meet. 2) Mark and Shay Morgan of Clarksville earned a spot in the Top 10 of the YF&R Achievement Award 3) ArFB President Rich Hillman carried the Arkansas flag in the opening general session. 4) The officer team from Arkansas FFA were our guests at the AFBF Convention 5) Matt and Terrie Shekels of Harrison spoke about their family and farm at the YF&R Excellence in Ag completion. 6) State officers from Arkansas 4-H also attended the AFBF Convention as ArFB’s guests.

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1) Arkansas delegates to the annual meeting of the American Farm Bureau Women gathered for a picture. 2) Delegate Jeremy Miller of Huntsville spoke on a policy proposal dealing with feral hogs during the Voting Delegates session ’s Leadership. 3) ArFB Sec.-Treasurer Dan Wright of Waldron spoke about requiring GPS guidance systems identifying secondary roads. 4) Delegate Caleb Plyer of Hope discussed climate change policy. 5) President Donald Trump addressed attendees for the third year in a row.

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MARKET NEWS as of January 29, 2019 Contact Brandy Carroll 501-228-1268 brandy.carroll@arfb.com

FSA DEADLINE FOR ARC AND PLC ENROLLMENT IS MARCH 15 Producers who have not yet enrolled in ARC or PLC for 2019 need to make an appointment to begin the enrollment process prior to March 15. Farmers can also enroll for 2020 during the same visit. The 2018 farm bill provides a onetime opportunity to update PLC payment yields, which could prove beneficial to producers.

Cattle Live cattle futures appear to have topped. Nearby February has broken out of the recent trading range with resistance at $128 and support at $124 and could head toward support in the $118-$120 range. The monthly cattle on feed report was in line with industry expectations. The total inventory was pegged at 102% of a year ago, placements were 103%, and marketings were 105% of the year ago total. Packer margins are still in the black, but have tightened considerably, and cash prices have been flat, despite seasonally lower supplies.

Hogs Hog futures have lost considerable ground this week, and nearby February looks poised to test support at the contract low of $63.67 ½. The hog market continues to be burdened with 4

large market-ready hog supplies.

The market was also disappointed in the initial U.S.-China trade deal, which did not eliminate tariffs, but rather resulted in a promise from China that they will waive tariffs to meet import goals. Now concerns about a coronavirus outbreak in that country has sparked a new wave of concerns about demand in that country.

Rice The uptrend in rice futures continues unabated, with nearby March trading at the highest level of a rice lead contract in 6 years. The smaller U.S. crop and tightening supply is certainly providing support. Strong Asian prices are also supportive. This week’s signing of the USMCA will be positive for rice as well, as this moves the agreement forward toward ratification in Canada, the last step needed before the three countries will begin to implement the new agreement. Last week’s export report was solid, with USDA reporting 78,600 metric tons sold and 72,200 metric tons shipped.

That’s up 12% from the previous 4-week average. March doesn’t have much technical resistance until we reach the $14 level. New crop September has seen an uptick in trading volume, and is trending higher as well, but at a significant discount to old crop.

Soybeans Soybean futures continue to trend lower. Strong early yields in Brazil and favorable weather in Argentina are weighing on prices. There are also growing concerns that China will not be back in the market for U.S. soybeans for delivery in 20192020, amid uncertainty about Phase I of the trade deal and the impact coronavirus will have on demand in that country. March has now moved

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below previous support in the $9 area and looks poised to retest support at $8.80. The new crop November contract has support between $9.16 and $9.25.

Cotton March cotton has been on a wild ride, charting wide intra-day trading ranges over the past couple of weeks. So far, the market has bounced off support at 68 cents. It is possible that the market is trying to confirm a top at the recent high of 71.96 cents. The U.S.-China trade deal should provide support for cotton, but there were no specifics about cotton in the agreement, so the proof will be in the purchases, if and when they materialize. Recent strength in the dollar and weakness in crude oil are both bearish for cotton prices. Last week’s export report was supportive, though, with sales of 307,000 bales and shipments of 282,600 bales, which was up 20% from the previous fourweek average.

Corn Trade in corn futures has been erratic over the past few weeks, with wide intra-day trading ranges on an almost daily basis. Last week’s export report was solid and provided some support, but overall demand is weak. Early seed sales indicate that U.S. plantings will expand considerably in 2020, adding further pressure to the supply/demand balance sheet and to prices. March currently has support at $3.75, but failure to hold there would signal a possible retest of the contract low near $3.65.

EDITOR Ashley Wallace ashley.wallace@arfb.com