The Futurist Outlook 2011

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tilTn0DUGI|0ll In the next 10 to 30 yeds, so.ieb)' will have to leam to epoch of critical scardeal with "peak everything"{ cities of a broad lange of resouces. Unexpected soure of expertise-€uch as phFicists advising us about the pconomy-will guide us tluough hard times.And 8enetic tampering vrith crops will gain more acceptanceif it solves critical environmental and E$ure prcblems, such as &sistanc€ to dimate chmSe dd reducing the IeleaseoI carbon into the atnospheie.

Thes€ ar€ just a few of tlE foEcasts in th€ lat€st €dition of th€ World Futu€ Society's amual Outlook eporl in which the editors have s€lectedth€ nost rllouShEprcvokinS foHasts and id€ae appearing in THE FUTURIST ovd the past year. Theseare not "pr€diction€," but rather glimpses of what may happen, wamings of potential probleme that could be avoided, or pr€scdptions for better tutuJ€s \{€ may wch to begin workinS lowaJd. The inrent of the Oudook ieport is to provoke thought and ispiE a.tion. The opinions and ideas exprcssed are thos€ of th€ir authors or sourcescited md do not n€cessarily repr€sent the views of the world Future Society.For morc inJomation, please r€fer to &e original artides cited. Ba& issues of THE FUTURISI as well as addihonal copies of this Outlook r€port, may be purchased using the coupon in this eport or o.line at As always, your tuedback is w€lcome. Pleaseemail -TIIE EDITORS your coiments to letters@wfs.oig.

iltsnt0u100[ Business andEconomics,,..,,,,.,,,., 2 FoodandA9 cu|ture.....................

5 Science andTechno|ogy................

8 Computerc andAutomation.,,,,..,,..

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Habitats.........................................

5 WorkandCareers..,,,..,,..,,..,,,..,,.:.

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Education.,,,..,,,..,,...,,..,,...,,..,,,...,,..

3 Heallh andMedicine......................

6 World Affairc..................................

I Inlormation Eneruy.,,,.,,,..,,...,,..,,,..,,,..,,..,,....,... u Society........................

7 Environment.,,,..,,...,,..,,...,,...,,...,,..4 Lifeslyles andValu€s..,,,..,,...,,...,,..

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0uIt00K20ilBUS[{tSS 4il0rC0lt0ilrGs a Physicisls could b€come lomorrcw's leading economic forccasters. Unlike mainstreameconomistt h h o r c l ) o n d v p r d 8 e .p.c o n o p h y s n i - r- s, r d v c o m p l e \ systems,feedbackloops,cascadingeffects,irrational decisionmaking,and other destabilizinginfluencet which mayhelp them to foreseeeconomicupheavals. Fuiure Scope, Scp-Oct2410,p.I a The two decadeE berween 2020 6nd 2040 will coincide wilh male alscarcity as "peak everything" takes hold. Suppliesof antimony (a strategicmineral esseniialio the productionof emiconductors) will peak between 2020 and 2040.Tantalum (€ss€niial to ihe produ.lion of .apacito.sand resistors)will peakbetween 2025and 2035.Zinc (an importanimetal in theproduction of batteries)will peak between2025and 2035.

Stephe AguilarMillan, Aitl Feeney,Any ab.rg, and Elizabeth Rudd,"ThePastScarcit!Warldof2050-2075,' 2ua, p.35 Jan-Feb a The post-scarcity business environment ol2050 and beyond willgive riselo new business models.

As more aspectsof industrial productionfall into tlLe realm of information technology, the abiliry to digitize, o r " c o n \ e r ia t o m (t o b i t s . "i - i n . r p d s i n g lrve m o v i n g scarcity from the business equation. -StEhetl AguilnrMi\an, A'111Feene!, Atn! Oberg,andElizdbethRur)d,'The Post-Scarcit lan-Eeb2010,p. 35 ! Worldof 20sA-2475," a U.S. companies willremain optimislic about Chlna's markels. An overwhelmingmajority (90%)of the Anerican companies doing business in China ar€ "optinisiic" or "slightly optimistic" about the five-year growih outlook fo. China's domesiicmarket,according to the AmericanChamberof Commercein Shanghai (Amcham). OftheU.S. companiessufleyed, 74% ranled China as a top three investment pdolity, and nearly 20%rank€d it as number one,Amcham .eports.

WorklTrcnds& Forccasts, MarApt 2010,p.11 a Emerglng Industries willlead a period of unprecedent€d global economic groMh and developmenl.

Suchfields as nanotechnology, solar and wind Power,wate! supply systemsand desalination planis, spacetourism, and environmental restoration projectscould cr€'

''Cahlng:The Biggest Boon Eper!"M,at-lune 2010,p. 21

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a Beware of backlash against greenwashing. Label ingproducts with meaninglesstermssuchas "natural" withoui tangibleenvironmentalbenefiiscould lead to a backlashfrom consumersseekingto support truly ccofriendlv businesses.

Manufacturen could begin by designing their productswith sustainabilityjn mind, such as usirrghydro-degradableplasticpa€kagin&which dissolvesin $'ater. EticaOrange,"Frc Ecir-Friendltt ta Eco-l t.lligent,' SE-act 2014,pp.28-32

C0ilIPUIIBS All0AUT0ilAIl0ll a We msy not be ableto movemountainswith our minds,but robotswill awaitour mentalcommands.

Imp.ovedbrain-comDuier interfaces couldauolvusers goal is to build in-

Ttcnds& Forecasts, SepAct 201A,p.7 a The Internet willget smarter; you'll spend less tlme searching, more timetinding what you want.If you sealchthe term "tanl9" theIntemet doesn'tknor! whether you meanan armed vehicleofsomething to hold oil. Search-engine developerssuchas Semanticv are teachingtheirprogramsto learn the meaningof words basedon how they are actuallyused raiher ihan their populariiy anong other searchers.-Wol!, ?e'lds & Forecnsts,Nat-Dec 2009,p. 9 a A "Sklnpul" computer interface will let you carry a virtual "keyboad" in the palm ofyour hand. The device,developedby a team of CarnegieMellon.e sear.herr consists of a tiny prcjector ihat creaies the virtual keyboarddisplal' and sensorsihat recognizethe soundsofyour finger tapping on specificparts ofyour skin. Tamoftouin Brief,luly-Aug 201A,p. 2 a Smart textiles wlllallowfuture musicians io "play themselves." In prototypegarmentsdesiSnedby studentsat the SwedishSchoolofTextiler sensorsbuxr into the fabric prcducea harplikesound when the user toucbestt. -Tahatow nt Btief,SE-Act 201A,p.2 a Future wars may be less deadly as fewer human troops are placed in high-risk positions. Autono, mous combatvehicles(drones)and roboticsoldiers could perform a wide variety ofdangerousmissions, such as carying cargo,sweepingmines,or guardingnational borders,accordingto Missy Cumrningr direcior

of MIT'SHumansandAutomation Lab.The resultmay be fewer war casualties.-Wo d TlendsA Eoreusts.NooDec2009,p. 12 a Hopping robob could see combal duly. Smll, portable,and lighL PrecisionUrbanHoppe$ aremainly the U.S.Army bat and help de-

Guided by GPS,

up to 25 fe€t in height and de"payloads," in€luding small video camens md microphones fof suseillance.

Wol\dTleflds & Foftcasts,Ma/Apt 201,0, pp. 13-14

TDUCAIIllII a The notion of classllmeas seoerale lrom nonclass time wlll vanl3h, The era of hyper.omectiviq, wil require most professionals to weave their careers and personal lives into a blended mosai. of activity.

Work md leisure will be interlaced throughout waking hou$ every day of the we€Ie and Ettdent life will r€flect the same trend. ln this wat ser-directed leaming will be ihe most impo.tmt tauglt skill of the tutue. -/rin Aideftofl, " Renaking Educationfor a Nea Cmtury" (iflElritu), lafl-Feb2410,p. 22 a The tuture b crowded rvllh PhDs. The nmber of doctorate degrees awarded in the United StaieEhas risen for six stlaight yearc, reaching a record 48,802in 2008,a€cording to the National ScienceFoundatiorfs Survey of Eamed Doctorates. Approximately a third of those deSr€eswent to temporary visa holders. Computei sciencemd engineering doctorates increased by more than 20% in the past decade. Humanities PhDs declined except in th€ field of edu.a6.o . Trendsi BneJ, MarAer 2074,t. 9 a Chlna may pioneer large-scale Internet €ducation.

Faced with the ch.llenge of educating an impoverished rural workforce, but fr€e frcm the influ€nce of teameF unions, China may be the first coutly to succeedin educating most of iis populadon thsugh the Intemet trom 2001to 2007.China spentabout $l billion to implement distance-leaming projects in the mral countryside. -John Naisbitt and Doris Naisbitt, a hols ofChina's Megafend' rnirued b! Paeick Tucke, W-Ju e 2010, oD.55-56

a Soclalnetwo*lng could fucilitate a morecollaboratlvo torm of leahinE. The Net generation uses technologies both for socializing and for working and leamin& so thet app$a.h to tasks is less about €ompeting and more about workin8 6 tems. Therefor€, teachers should abandon the "drill and kill, sageon a stage" model of pedagogy, and managers should encourage greater freedom among employees to self-org:lMe. Dan Tapsrctt..itcdn Innovationand Crcatioirun a Conple, World,' Noo-Dec2009, p. 53 a Fulure curlcule will broaden io includ€ Interpersonal skllls. The ag€ of social networking has brought on a.ritical ne€d for social skills such as ser-discipline, Esponsibitity, and media literacy, in addition to the "three R's." Education should in orporate mor€ active leaming styles, such as group exercis€s,classdiscussionr and other exercisesthat allow students to interact with couse material. - Gary Marx, cited it1"Educationkt a Ne.,,Age," NorDec 2009,p. 57 a In 2020, schools $rlll carve out nondigital pre se es tor studonts to rcad snd write with books, pens, and pap€r Educators md students witl seenondigital space as a crucial part of the curiculum, EcoBnizing that aspectsof intelligence are best developed with a mixtue of digital and nondigital iools. Malc Baue ein, "Litenry ltarningin the Htwdigital Age, lanFeb2010,p. 24

a Texting, microblogglng, andoveruseof online tools will havea negallveetfecton studenlwritlng and academlcD€rformance.

Whenstudents sit doM and compose on a keyboard, they slide inio a hdried mocleof writin8. Ac mor€hds grow up writinB in snatches/md writinS poorly, €olleges will put more 6rst-yedstudol\ inhoremedialcouses dd bu.inecc€s will hir€ mole wdting coachesfor their enployes.

Ma* Ba\erlein, " Litercry lmrning in theHypodigital Age," Jan-Feb2010,p. 25 a On lhe collego camp$ oftomorrow, class€s won't maller. The next generation of college students will be living wherever they want and taking nany (if not all) of their comes online. They will eam degrees thal are accreditedby intemationalaccr€ditingdgencies.

But even in a globalized, educational environment, student! will still wdt io join fellow students in a cmpus commlJJ]jty. -John Dtu, "Global,Mobile, Virul, and Social: The CollegeCampusofTononou," Mir-Apt 2010,p.5A

TXTIGY a Swilchinglo el€ctrlcvehicleswon't solvelh€ energy problem. Thoughit would reducecarbon-dioxid€ pollutiorl a massiv€transitiontuomfossiltuels to elec"

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20ll 0uIt00K trically power€d vehicles would cr€ate even more demand for elecrricity. Other sources of increasing electdcity demand include household apptimcet computers, cell DhoneE.and other coreumer electronics. -Rt.l,/d Stieititz uith Rick Docksai,"Wy the World May Tun ro Ntclut Power," Non-Dec2009,p. 19 a Fisslon versuslossils: Nuclear power may soon trump p€troleum. Demmd for energy, especially electricity, will continue to sod, but what sourc€ will suPPly that power? Fossil tuels ar€ blamed for 90% of carbondioide polutioo and r€newable souices like solar and wind power ar€ not yet reliable as baseloads,so nuclear power is experiencinSa renajssdce.Nucleal energyis prsjected to supply nearly 30% of r}le worlds eleckicity by 2030,up ftom 16% today. -Ricl@d Stieglitzuith Rick Docksai,"lMy the Wotld MaV Tum to NucleatPoue\" NovDec2009,p. 17 a Elecldc cals could make fogsil-fu€l-powered cars obsolele. Th€ Uruted Statesmav comDletelv tranrition

from gasoline-

tastlonger and

to th?ElecbicAr E@nomr,"MatApr 2010,W. 4Ms a Altematlve snergy will overtake fos6il tueb by the 202G. This will happenevenif Chinamd Irdia retain coal-firedpower plants.If handledpoorly,suchrecalcitianc€may €nd up being a driver for significant globaltension.If hand]edwell, it could be an enSinefor new marketsand developme\t. -lanais Cascio,"ThcPo' k nalaid RitksoJCpomgmcfting,May-lune2010,W. ?7' 28

wil also help reduce reliance on oil. By 2060 a pollu' tion-free hydrogen economy may become practical, doughcostly. MaminI.Cehona O@enDaoies, "T/endsShapiflSTonomw'sworld: Forcesi th? NatutaL and Institutio al Enoinflneflts," luly-Aug 2010,p. 40

HUtn0[ilflfi a ltorc nucloarreactorsorc beingbullt,but they maynol beenoughto rcducepollutlonlrcm ca6on dioxide. By d€ €nd of 2002 the woild had 439 operating nuclear reactorE.Worldwid€, r12 new r€actors in 25 countdes are planned, but in order for nucled power to significandycontributeto reductionsotcarbon emi\sionr some 2000 new r€actors ar€ ne€ded, critics ar8ue.

-Rbhald Stieglitz with Nck Dockai, "W! the Wo d May Tuft to Nuclea/Powet " Ntu-Dec 2009,p. 20; Michael Maiotte, " SecondThoughtson Nucleat Poaa" Noo-Dec 2009,p.23 a Dead zonea in theworld's oceans areo rapldly growing environmenlal crl3|3. Industdal aSriqftre that allows too mu.h animal manur€ and crop fertilizer to contaminatefreshwdlerdnd codstalecosyslemsis blamed for the gmwing phenomenon of eutrophicatio& which is th€ depletion of oxygen to support fistr @6taceais, and other marine life. WorldTrcnds A Forecasts, NovDec2409,p. 7 a Many ol today's prot ctod sp€cies could die oul from a sudden cetastrcphlc evenl. Any specieswith a population of fewer thm 1000 is just one cataclysm away from disappearst'rdy by the Univelsity of Adelaide and Macquarie Univercity.

This findhg puts the Siant pand4 which numbeF 1,000-2"000, and the CaliJomia

a Solar power could come ftom glltter, Photovoltai€ cels the 6izeof a pieceof glitter couldbe embeddedin textil€sto provide a nedly ubiquitoussourceof mobile energy.Develop€dat SandiaNationalLaboratories,th€ tiny cellscould alsolo er the costsof sold powe4 as they could be massproducedusing commonmicrosystems(MEMS)techniques. el€ctromechanical -Tononow h Bnet| v-Atg 2010,p. 2

ther€ arc only 170livin& deep in the dn-

a Oll p.ice rise6 will be chack€d by growing compellllon from alternative sources of €neJgy.Nucleal power is growing rapidly aroundthe world; in Russia, for iistance,planscall for 25 mor€nuclearplantsto be built by 2030.Solar,geothermal,wind md waveenergy

a A collaF€ In the Arctic's collared l.mmlng population-a growlng pGsibility due to cllmat€ change-would have ripple ellects the wodd ov6t Lonsersummelswi meanlesstime for the animalsto breed.They'rea staplefood foi a vari€ty of pr€dator

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of r€mainingspecimensmay bring many backfrom the MarApr 2010,p. 5 bti*. -WotA Talds & Forccasts,

specier such as the snowy owl and the seagull-like skua among other animals,accordrnglo re5€archer Ol'r €r Gilg. Rapid climatic and biota shifts playing out in the Arcticprovide a window into howanimal behaviors will shift as a result of climate change. warldTrends tt Farccdsts,lan Feb2UA, p.9 a As theArctic mells, Europe willtreeze. The effects of climate change differ by latitude; loss of sea ice n the A(ri. rc8ronwilllik€lt ),eld (older and snowier winlers in turcpe. estem Asia.bd easlemNorth AmedLa, according io NOAA researcherjames Overland.

ToftMlow in BrieJ,Sep-Oct2010,p. 2 a Fising levels of CO, are benetiting GM crops and weeds. Atmospheric carbon dioxide has been growth in genetically modified soybeans and the weeds that they've beenmodified to resist.

Fast€rowing invasive weeds could become even rnoi€ troublesone as cq levels incre6e to a pre-

dicted550pdts per million by 2050.-Tononaw in Brief, MarApt 2010,p.2 a TheAralSeawilldry out by 2020it conservation eflorls don'l work, Oncethe fourth-tarsestlake ur Earth,theAral ha5shrunkdramahcally rn recentde,ad€s.Effortsto restoreit haveincludedthe corutruction of a dam to seouesterihe smallerbut less-Dollutedand salq?northemAral fiom the southempara.-wold Trcnds & Forccasts, M,tr-Apr2a'Io,p.12

F00B ililrAoilcutIURE a Crops will be genetically modified lo be lmpervious lo climate change. Agrioltural sci€ntists believe they have isoiated the "thermometel' gene in plmts that allows them to senseand adaDt to temDeraturc chmges. Tweaking the g€ne €ould create rcps that would grow in any climate condition. -F l!/e S.ope, Mar-Iuw 2010,p. 4 a Environmenlallsb may embrace genetically modilied crops as a carbon-reduciion technology. Like nuclear power, Senetically modi{ied crops have long been the bane of envircmentalists, but Stewart Brand, aurhotol Wolc Eo'th Di,t rpli{p.a €ues thaI lhereare mynad benefits to them. For exmple, crops modified to grow without being tilled (achievable through the creation of genetically novel crop strains) could prevent

carbon on the soil 6om being released into the atmc .pherc. Struort Bruad.dulnofo/ Whole Edth Discipti^e, rmieued by Anro M. Cahen,Iafl-Feb2010,p. 55 a Indoor verlicallarming willmake cltles mo.6 seltsustaining. "Living" skyscrape$ with entue floo$ dedicated to growing food could soon appee in city skylines. In an increasingly urbanized tutuE, they will bring food Fowers and consumes closer togeiher/ md also extend "farmland" into a third dimension: skyward. A 3o-story skyscraper on one city block could potentialty feed 50,000Manhattaniies, using te.hrologies rvdilrblp now Cyatha C. WagneL'V?th,ol FaMinB: An Llu lwose Tine Has ComeBack" MarApr 201A,pp.

68-69 a The $/orld has entered a new ela of lood insecu. riiy. Higher food pd.es, rapidly growing numbers of hungry people, and intensifying competition for land and water resourcesmem that nations must better manage their Iimited rcsources or face possible food shorta9es--Lester R. B/or,t1, "How to Feed8 Billian People,' lan-Feb2010,p. 28 a A polentlal food collapse may result from aquifer ovorpumping. Water tables are now falling in countries that togethprLontainhal{ the h orld s people.An p+imated 400million people(including 175million in India and 130 million in China) are curr€ntly being fed by farms and processesthat rely on overpumping. Saudi Arabia has announced thal becauseits major aquifer is largelydepleied,it will be phasinSout wheat pmduction entirely by 2016. -lestd R Brcun, 'Haw to FeedI Billion People,"Ian-Eeb2010,p. 3A

IIABIIATS a Redesigning the aulomobile could help crcate morc-sustainable cllles. With 800million carson the planet to serve 7.8 billion people/ pereonal transportation is a dominant force in our lives. But by 2020,we will be shifting from privately owned gas-powered cds to shar€d electric vehicles. By engineenng far smaller, lightea and energy€ffi.ient vehicles for city use and cEating nerwork that male it easier for such vehicles to be shared rather thm owne4 urban design could b€ radically trmsfomed.

RyaflChin, "Sustainabb bbafl Mobility in 2020, ' lulr-Aug 201A,pp. 29-33 a Cilies in developod coonldes could learn sustainability from Informalcities in the developing world. Dwellers in slumr favelas, dd gheitos have lemed to use and reuse rcsources and commodities more efficiendv than then wealthier counterDarts. The neiShborhoodsare hgh-dpnrify and wdllable. mi),ing commercialdd rcsidenlirl d€as ratherthan segrcgdr-

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201| 0uIr00K ins thes€ tunctions. -Patlina IIieLv afld XtaoPaoLlan' "Leaminsfton Infomal Cines,Buildi'| hr contuunities"' Sep-Oct2010,pp 2+26 a Future buildings may bo mo@ convers€llonlrlendly. Architects using sound-maPPing softwsrc de velooedat CaJdiffUnjversitv in Walescan seethe noisy hot joots where conversations in a room might become uninteligible. By altering rcom shapes and materials, they will be able to make meeting sPaces,oPen-plm offices, and even caf€smor€ cornPatibte for convereations' -Future Scope,Iuly-Attg 2010,p 4

to buildlngdesignand landa NewaPproaches Scaplngwill protect homeown€B in fire zones. with indeasins humansettlementin woodlandsand savmnas, architects should use "firewi*"

constmctio& slrch

building materi-

of Wyoming ecologistWillim Baler.Landscap ing th€ building fiee of Ptantsthat tuet and sPread flaru$ -World TendsA Foreusg,Iuly-Aug2010,p. 7 a ln tomorrow's smarl hous€, the walla wlll talk-to each other, and to the wlndows, TV, and frldge. The key to makingthe longjantasizeddreamof a smart housereal is the cr€ationof an Intemetof things-networking mong tle nany devicesthat keepour households running. TheHydra Proiectin Europeis aiminSto €reatean open-sourcemiddlewar€network that would be compatibtewith devicesmanufactur€dby mmy difnom 8ming Plaformsto rerriSeratuFnt comPanies, -World Tiendsft Forccasts, tots.

Iuly'Aug 2010,P.10

climate-Elated impacts, wans Physi.ist David Colev of th€ University ofExeter. WotldTrends A Forccasts,SeP' Oct 2010,p. 11

ltHllll All0lltlllcll|E a Top-otthe-line m€dlcal diagnostic equlpment wlll b6 availablo on your phone. A new aPPlication uses an iPhonds buitt-in microPhone io collect clear signats or a user's heart beat, which can then be transmitted in r€al time to a @rdiologist. Peter Bentley, inventor of the seesdidgnostic.Pplicahont becoming iStethoscope, mor€ Dowertul and cheaper than traditional medical equip;enf eventually putting an afiay of instruments in everyone's pockets. - ?ends in Bti', Ian'F& 20'10'p 8 a Ciliz€n 3cientbb may play as big a role in curlng bresst cancer es muliibilliondollar drug companles.

Voluteers all over the world will .omect online to work on a single problem, revolutionizing drug develoDment. Open accesswitl make it easier to share ideas, D;btish protocols and tools, verify results, rule out bad iesiens, communicate best practices, md more.

- Aituru Hessel,"Plim)mtin| the Pharn^ceuticallndustry WithoutthzIndustry,'lan-Feb2010,p 19 a Genetlcally indivldualized medlcines wlll lower the cosl ol drug development. Synthetic biology, a 8eneticengineeringrechnologyfouded on DNAsynthe\is that amouts towritins softwr for cells willdroP the cost of doing bioengin;ering by several orde$ of maenitude. -,4tdled, Hessel,"Reiwenting the PhttntceuiicalIndllsbr witholtt thz lndushy," Ian-Feb2010,p 20 a A vscclnation may vanqulsh phobi$. In tests wiih goldfish at the University of Hnoshina, iniections of th€ anesthetic lidocaine werc found to temPorarily steady heart rates, ofGring hope for helPing humans ovenome their iirationat fea$. - Tomorlou in Btief, IulV'Aug 2010' p-2

a "Smart citie6" may soon 6merge.*nsor dust,€mbeddedcomputing,augmentedreality,and a host of otheremergingtechnologieshold the potentialto "awaken" citiesasdigital €nvironments -.ltntts Cas.to, Maf-lune "Th?PotentitlMd Ristj ol Geoeflgineeftq," 2010,w. 27-28

a Cllnlcal treatmont using advanced ntnorobotic medlclne could b€gin somellme durlng the 20203.

Ratherlhan pFscribmBdru8s lhathave the same8eneric efiects, docto6 in th€ tuture will Prescdbe lworobotic treatments that act with digital precisioo hav€ no side eftects, and can i€Port exactly what they did back to the Dhvsician. -Robdt A Frcitaslr., "The Eutne of Nanonediitg," Ian-Feb201.0,p. 22

a Archltectsmay needlo considercllmalemodels in lheh buildlngdesigm. Mostbuildings@ onshuctedaccodine to a locatiorfs historicweathercondi' tion6.Howwer, a; cfimatechanSeis Proiectedto make pldceslike lhe Uniled Kingdomhofter by mid-rentury alterd Lujldingswillned to adaPtto dramatica-lly needsfor energyconsumPtion,flood detunseand other

a Providlng more sels places to play could rcveBe chlldhood oh€sity tren*. A lack of playgrounds within walking distance is Pan of the reason that twofiirds of American children now fal short of th€ recommend€d 60 minutes a day of physical activity, ac€ording to the nonprofit organization KaBOOM! The $ouP F

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cently laun hed a cdpaign to honor imagimtive ways that local groups have promored play. wo dTrcnds & Farccosts, Ian-Feb2010,p. 16 a Psychiatrists wlll treel character deticiency and acule lack ol self-dlrectedneSsInstead of deoression. Mental-health docto$ have plied patients with psychotropic drugs for decadesto litde effect, says Robert Cloninger of Washington University in St. Louis.

Some people may just be genetically predisposed toward greater haPPiness.WheE clini.al tEatment.d male a diffeEne, he says, is in e.hecing patients' character development ed self-directednessto achieve better overall life satisfaction. -Toftomu in Brief, lanFeb2410,p.2

lllt0RilAll0ll S0GIITY a No more digitaltrails? Communicationstechnologies make it ea6y to blurt out wor& you immediately r€8ret, so computer Ecientisrsat the univeFity of washington have created a way to put expiration dates on e-mail, chat messages/and Facebook postings. The system, dubbed Vanistr encrypts messaSesmd spreads the data mong differ€nt computers on 6le6haring networks. As tumover o@re in the networlg urrs take their portion of the enqypted key with them, r€ndenng the messageudecipherable. -Tonomn in Brief, NooDec2009,p.2 a The written word could become obsolete by 2050.

The growth of Web surfing, Intemet video, computer gamet textin& and Twitier will lead to a significant global decline in text literacy/ a.cording to futurist William Crossman. This tEnd away from traditional .€adin& thinkin& and r€s€dh skills is likely to causea shifi loward mor€ qsually bdsedmedia in the.oming decades.Youngergenerationsof uselswillbe jncr€asingly inclined to abmdon older information technotogies, including the written wor4 as new media ar€ developed. -Pataick Tuckfr, "The Dawn of thePostliterate Age,' Nop-Dec2n9, p. 4s

a S€archengineswill soonInclud€spokenrcsulls, not iu€t lorl. Television broadcasts and other Ecordings could be .ompiled and converted using programs developedby the Fraunhoferlnstituteforlntelligenl Amlysis. As more p€ople spend moE time sder the lenses of camerasand in the ples€ne of midophonet and aBmor€ footage from thos€ devi€es goes or De, a spoken-word edh engine could allow someone with a smart phone to look up dy recorded conversation between two P€oPlettut's ocored anywher€ a microphone was pr€sent. - Wol d Treflds& Foreusts, Ian-Feb 2 0 1 0p, . 1 2

a N€w lype6 ol cfimes willemerge aswe spend mor€ ol oor lives online. Social networkins sites and other online ommunities pemit people to behav€ and misbehavein wdys that mirror rcal liJe.Harassment, fraud and other crimes that .ause harm, wh€ther physical, financial, or €motional will proliferate online.

Society &d law enforcement will be forced to bmaden the understanding of personal and instihtional Esponsibility md of what are consid€r€d criminal acts. -E c Meade, 'Scanningthe Eut rc oJLaw Enhrcenent: ATtend A a\sis," luly-Aug 2010,p. 23 a Heavy end prolonged reliance on the Int€fistlor communlcation may degrade our ability lo thlnk.

Web surfing dd "googling" are having neurolo8ical imPactsihat ar€ obsesabl€ and measurable according to critic Nicholas Ca . While we may be more adept at finding what we r€ looking for, we are less able to reflect, synthesize and analyz€ the content md its deeper neminS. "The more we use the Web, the more we train our brains to be distracted/" he chalges. NicholasCan, quthot ofThe Sha\lows, t@iaMd by Patick TuckeLlulyAug 24fi, p.61

lttEslYlts A[0UAtUtS a More aihektg will "come oul of the closet" as societyincrcaslnglyr€cognlzescoftmon valueslhat transcend religion. In 2020,mostpeoplewill no longer regardreligiousideasasbeyondcriticism.Respectror variousgodswill diminish but r€spectfor parents, teachers,and otherswho've ac$mulated knowledge shouldincrease.As mor€of the 10%to 1570of the U.S. populationwho ar€atheistsand agnosticsconJess their lack of Eligious beliefsto their friends,fmily, ar|d neighbors,it will be difficult to hold to the claimthat so many lack the ability to Ieadproductive,moral lives.

-Rof Specwnrdt,"FindinsFaithin Hunalknd," MarApr 2010,p. 37 O Rellglouspraclitioneas urillpreferto connectwith ono anotherin person,ratherlhanlust online.Religiousleaderewill increasinglyutilize the Internetmd socialneh{orking technologyto connectwith peoplein n€edof spiritual counseling.However,moremd mor€ peoplewiil visittheiJpnesls,rabbis,andpdsror\in peF sonbecaus€the technologywill not be ableto replace w:'m Sesturesfrom real,liv€ hme beings. /yyt Gotant,Dr. Re1r.

PlemSufrsawat, "Ntrtwi g th! Spirit in thzAgeof theWeb,"MarAr 201A,pp. 38-39 a Communitiesmay build s betterlorm ol capltalism lhan corporatlonG.Ite growth of corporations ed their power over the marketeconomymay haveleft peopletuelinghelplessin the faceof the rec€ntfinhcial meltdoM. In the future, communitiescould cr€ateth€ir

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2011 0uil.00K own meket economies and even their owll currenciet such as "Life Dollds," io strengthen local resoures.

DouglatR",hkof. l te Dotta,,:FndtngCu,-aQ in CannLnity," Sep-Oct2410,pp.21'23 a The mlllennial generation's attltudesloward privacy and security wlll altet lau/ ontorcemenl's slrategl€. In the Uniied States,the millennial generahon (those bom approximately 1983-2002)are r€cePtive to new technologies and have relatively tuw concems about privacy issues. Law enforcement and security strategies using social networking or other ie€hniques that others consider invasions of Privacy may be more commonly accepted among this cohott. - E/id Meada ,Scanninx the Futne ol lrlt' Enlorcetnet: ATrdd 2014,p.23 Aflallsis,"Iuly-A119 a Expoct growing rcsentment toward a new clsss of genetlc elites, or "genobles." The use of genetic technolosies could destabilize human civilization as ihe wealthy ;se enhancements to increasetheir advaniages over have-nots, says medicine law r€searcherMaxwell J Mehlman. The rise of genobility-i e., genetic nobilitys ill requircso.iehesto serboudariec tor emerging society-altering tedmologies. -lnnaftow in Briet lan' Feb2010.p.2

a BreaKhroughs in datastorage could glve music lovers24t access

a The science ol tlpping poinE wlllshow strange similarllies betweon the funclioning ofthe stock market,lhe Arctic, and the brsin. Many comPlexsystems-including mark€texchdges, anjmal Populations, rdentifidble"edrlv waming" and eco-y.leru<$rbrl shifts like crashes,acprior to big dis.uptive behaviors cordingto a 2009paper publishedin the journal N,1,/..

The authors.ontend that the study of corollary waming signals acrosssystems would benefit rrom nore rcliable statistrcal tools. World Treflds& Forecasts, Ian-Feb2UA,

a Auto pans that store and releaseelect clty could keep cars running continuously, The Proiotypesare made of a lightweight comPositematerialthat.ould make hybrid gasoline/ €lechic vehicleslighter and more energy efficient, allowing notorisis to tlavel longer distances betw€en recharges. -Fut re Scope,Mar-Iune 2410,p.4 a New transportatlon systems ale emerging that wllllessen t€fflc congestion and accident risks.Interstate highways will feaiure lanes for cars and trucks .ontrolled by computers. Robo-cars (smalt vehicles completely controlled by built-in artificial intetligence) wiu pick up elderly and disabled people in .esideniial areas and take then to nearby supermarkets, do.tor's appointments, and wherever else they might like to go.

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thid-party seFerslike Pandorawill be comPlicatedby an assortmentof tricky economicand copynghtissues -wotld Trcnds Sep-Ox2014,p. 6 8 Forccosts,

SGITIIGT IIIOITGHIIIIII|GY a Ouanlum computing could make networks imper_ vlous to cyberattacks---or rcndet them defenseless.

The race to be the first to build a large quantum comDuter, or quantum network, is a matter of national secuilty, according to computer scientist Dave Bacon of the University of Washington. The goal is to hamess the belevel to enable faster havior of paiticl€s at the quatm compuiation. Thi6 could allow govemments (or other use$) to break otherwise imperious encryption codet as well as to reverse the prccess and €reateessentially unbreakable codes. world Trcnds& Forccl|ts, lutV-Aug 2010.o.6

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a Future leader3 will be asked to manage 6uperperforming, technologicslly €nhanced employ€es.

Leaders will b€ar much of the burden of social evolution when rhe "Enlan€ed Singular Individuals" (ESls) of the Singularity Era enter the general population of "Noms" (those without techrological enhancemenis). -Balron Kuistle/, "The Singuklirr's I pacton BusiflessLeadels:A Senatio,"Mar-Apt 2014,p. 17 a SupeFautomation may soon bring super-unemployment.The gmwing us of artificialintelliSenceio increase produchvity in offices all acioss the develoPed world could rcsult in dramaticallyincreasedunemploy' meni. rrlling.onsumer demdd, dd a Iinancial.ri.i' surpassing the Great Depression, wams Silicon Valiey enhepreneurMariin Ford. Marrin Eod, authorolThe Lights in ihe Tunnel, /eoiru ed bv PtrtrickTuckq, SeP'Oct 2414,p.51 a Middle skills will rise in impodance. Middle-skill workers ranginB from carpenters to radiology technic i a n ,w i l l b e n € € o e di _ L h " l e ) r n d u ) t ' i e \ b e n e f i h n g frorn U.S. federal tundin& such as construction, health

care, manufacturing, and trdsportation. In Rhode Is' land" more ihan a2% of iob openings between 2006 and 2016aE prcjected to be middle-skill jobs, conpared *i'h 2baofor low{Ulldnd r2'" for hiCh*Ulljob:.

World Tte ds & Forccasts,Ian-Feb2010,p. 15 a The U.S. Hkpanlc population faces a retirement crisls. Hispanic md Latino Americms have saved l€ss for their tutur€ and are less likely to be covered by employer-sponsored retirement plG than their white counterparts, a€cording to the Hispanic Institute. Hispanics are Iargely employed in the serice-related fields that do not provide r€hrement plans or enough income for workers to save on thet own. -Warld Tends I Forccasts,lt1fl-Feb 2010,p.17

a The ri6e ofreorkshoD desk3 and "acllve work envlaonments" will keeo oflice wo*ers healthler.The InJomation Age has created an epidemic of slothful of fice workers. The A€tive Desk (a workpace incorporaF ing a headmill) and similar inventioc aim to createa more physically demmdin8 work environment that doesn't detract from knowledSe workers productivity.

-Tonoftou in Bnef MatApr 2010,p. 2

ible outcomes.-.iamatsCos.io,"The Pote tial and Risks of Geaensineering," May-lufle2010,pp.27-28 a Wlllthere be garbagewars in the luture? lncreasing consumption in ihe developing world is Ieading to increasing waste, leaving less room for trash producers in the developed world to s€nd their debris. After about 2025,developing counkies will likely close iheir doors to foreign waste/ forcing th€ d€veloped world to refine waste+o-ener8ydd recycli.g technologies.-Maruifl /.

Cetrcn afld Ouen Daties, 'TfendsShapi g Totnono@'s World: Forcesin the NaturcI a d lnstitutioflal Efloitunne11ts," Iulr-Aug 2010,p.43 a Equipment donations may unlnlenlionally in" crease pollution in tho developing world. Recycling old equipmeni by sending it to the developing world can be bad for the enviroment in the r€ceiving coubies. These older techrologies tend to be more polluting thannewer, more+fficient nmufacluringequipmeni.

- FutureScope, Mdr lu e 2010,p.4 a Untangling the legallssues related to the environment will fall to speclallzed lawyers, iudges, and courls. Air and water pollution md other environmental issues cross inlemational borders compli.atinS the regulatoly and enJorcementlandscape. Enviromental courti could help countries ensurc healthier social md environmental tutures, according to University of Denver law professor George Prj^8. wolld Tten^ e Faftcasts,Sep-Oct 2a10,p.I0

a Fighting lhe global thrcat of cllmate changecould unile countraes--or Inflame rivalries. Nationswith more sophisticated envircmental monitoringsystems could u.e datd to theiradvdrdgp. perhapswealeninS an enemy by failing to warn it of an oncoming storm or other catastrophe. -Roger Htua , "The Politicsol Clinate Cht ge," NoL'-Dec2009,p. 2s

a Globalyoulh populatlon willgrowfrom 3 billion now to 3.5 billion by 2020. Halfa billion of the world's population under age 25 live on less than $2 a day, according to the United Nations. As growing numbers of youth are "at nsk" in some way whether joininS Smgtbecoming addictedto drugr or ralling pEy io the sex trade-new approaches will be needed to ensul€ better tutures. Leading law enforcement expe.ts r€commend pro8rams\uch a5 parenieducation.mentorin& nonviolent connict resolution, character education, and community-school partnerships, as well as supporting the UNICEF sponsored lntemational Convention on the Rights of the Child. GeneStephefls,'youth at Risk:A Neu Planhr Saoingthe lryorV's M6t hecious Resawce," luly-Aug 2A10,pp. 16-21

a Future Intemational diplomacy may increaslngly focus on howto controlthe climate. Someadvocates beii€ve geoengineeringmay be.one imperative by 2015.However, the deliberatemanipulation ofthe Earth's natural systens in order to mitigate the effects ofclimate changeis very difficult, and could carry dangerousunintended side effects.One.esult may be proteststhat lead to violence,especiallyif different regionshave divergent results or demand incompac

a The balance ol economic power b shlltlng from West to Easl. If Asim economic growth leads to more people pursuing the Wesfs consumerist lifestylet strains on global resolrces and the envircment will ac, celerate, a diplomat and scholar wams. A more,sustainable tuture may be found in a retum io iraditional Asian values that eschew materi alism. - loelgenOdshoen MaelleL Asia Ret aws theMap of Progess," Sep-Oct2010, w.14-19

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