Playing in an Unpredictable Environment BY RYAN BLYTHE
September brings college football and the optimism So, where do we go from here? Most economists expect that team weaknesses have become strengths during an increase in hiring as federal benefits expire, and early an offseason dedicated to training and learning from results seem to confirm that. Most job openings in the experience. Considering this special time of year, especially service sector should be fillable, but there still will be in the deep South, how can we evaluate the state of significant challenges for skilled labor. However, the our economy and small businesses 18 months into the service sector once again could see its recovery stalled by pandemic? It’s important to the raging delta variant. Therefore, separate the real economy that many employers are considering most people experience from Wall either vaccination mandates or Street. encouraging vaccinations through Much like our favorite college incentive programs. football teams beginning this It’s likely we will see more season with high expectations, businesses close, events canceled many of us have similar and travel reduced until this expectations for American variant is under control. economic recovery. Businesses have Consumer spending comprises adjusted to the challenges that the 70% of the U.S. gross domestic pandemic has presented. Execution product, so a healthy retail and is better, and many business service sector is critical. Goldman owners have reduced self-inflicted Sachs recently cut its expectations mistakes. But, challenges remain. of economic expansion to 8.5% in For many Americans, the the third quarter and 5% in the unemployment rate matters most. fourth quarter of this year. The The service sector has experienced company expects a return to 2% the most challenges, as 50 million growth in the second half of 2022. jobs were lost over the course of the A major concern, in addition pandemic, according to Armada to the virus, is that the longer Corporate Intelligence. Shutdowns we work remotely, the longer the were expected to be temporary, and recovery of the service sector will while Georgia may have reopened be. Unfortunately, the pandemic partially last summer, many states has become so politicized and did not. In some cases, states lost polarized at this point, there is a essentially a year of productivity limited amount the government According to Yahoo Finance, it takes 30 days, on and growth. can do. Our country has borrowed average, to fill a skilled trades job, such as welding. The uneven recovery has been at record levels, and Congress exacerbated by the billions spent on must wrestle with a contentious extended unemployment benefits, debt ceiling increase that could which made sense when jobs were scarce, and Americans lead to a government shutdown. had limited social opportunities. But, as the economy Just like football teams facing strong headwinds improved, 23 states, including Georgia, opted out early. from elite competition, businesses are playing in an A positive sign, according to Forbes, is the more than unpredictable environment. The government has tried for 800,000 who were newly hired nationwide in July, and the more than a year and a half to manage the pandemic. But, expectation that the trend will continue. the increased unemployment program did not incentivize Since the partial reopening began, businesses have Americans into training and education for new struggled to find labor. For some industries, including employment opportunities. We may well have reached a manufacturing, construction, transportation and health point where businesses will need to finish the job. care, this is nothing new. Unfortunately, many who lost their jobs do not have the skills to take on jobs in those industries. In addition to government benefits, moving education to a virtual format required millions of parents Ryan Blythe is the founder of Georgia Trade School, which for the sixth consecutive year, was to stay at home. And, as mature citizens left retirement named one of the Cobb Chamber Top 25 Small communities, they required additional care from their adult Businesses of the Year. children, too. 34
AROUND KENNESAW | September 2021
