Journal Oil - Mineral Nº 255

Boletín 255 · 11 - 18 de septiembre de 2013

Quito - Ecuador

artesjournal@hjbecdach.com

Tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil & Power

Documento completo de la solicitud enviada por el Presidente de la República Rafael Correa a la Asamblea Nacional declarando de interés nacional la explotación de los bloques 31 y 43, Parque Nacional Yasuní.

Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías.

www.hjbecdach.com

Petróleo artesjounal@hjbecdach.com

I

N

D

I

C

Mes / año

Precio petróleo WTI

Septiembre 2008 Septiembre 2009 Septiembre 2010

$ 103,90 $ 69,46 $ 75,31

A

D

O R E Mes / año

Precio petróleo WTI

$106,86 (+ 0,48%) 11 de septiembre de 2013

S Precio petróleo WTI

Septiembre 2011 Septiembre 2012 Septiembre 2013

$ 85,61 $ 94,72 $ 104,61

Tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil & Power Publicación: 5 de septiembre de 2013

PRECIOS DE LOS PRINCIPALES MINERALES DEL MERCADO COBRE

ORO

PLATA

ALUMINIO

ESTAÑO

MOLIBDENO Fuente: www.cochilco.cl

Representantes de las empresa públicas y privadas que están participando en la Ecuador Oil&Power 2013.

E

n días pasados se realizó el tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil&Power, para concretar los temas fundamentales que se tratarán y analizarán en el Ciclo de Conferencias Magistrales y Técnicas que se realiza en el marco de la XIV Ecuador Oil&Power 2013, los días 25, 26 y 27 de septiembre, en el Centro de Exposiciones Quito.

Después de un profundo análisis, y de acuerdo a la coyuntura nacional con respecto al ITT, uno de los temas que será tratado desde varios puntos de vista, será la inminente explotación de los bloques ITT ubicados en el Parque Nacional Yasuní, y que es de interés nacional. Su explicación técnica estará a cargo de Petroamazonas

2

EP, los ámbitos económicos y sociales serán expuestos por los ministerios vinculados, como el MRNNR, Ministerio de Coordinador de Política Económica, Ministerio del Ambiente, así como las subsecretarías del ramo.

También participará la empresa privad, analistas económicos, políticos, ambientales y sociales, así como la opinión pública.

Además de este tema importante, tenemos otros temas de mucha relevancia para el desarrollo del Ecuador, como: - Cambios en la matriz energética y eliminación de los subsidios.

- Refinación y mejoramiento de producción de combustibles.

- Nuevas Tecnologías para un desarrollo petrolero responsable.

- Planificación Hidrocarburífera para el mediano y largo plazo.

- Energías Renovables.

- El plan de desarrollo de los Bloque ITT. - Responsabilidad Social y Relaciones Comunitarias.

- Sistema de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de GLP - Zona Sur. - Seguridad, salud y ambiente.

Este evento constituye hace más de 10 años como el más importante del sector hidrocarburífero ecuatoriano, y en el que este año tomará una relevancia aún mayor por los temas que se tratarán en torno al mismo.

ANALYTICA INVESTMENTS WEEKLYREPORT@ANALYTICAINVESTMENTS.COM

Ramiro Crespo Chairman of the Editorial Board

WWW.ANALYTICA.COM.EC

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ECUADOR WEEKLY REPORT® For the week of September 2 – September 6, 2013

Ecuadorian Global Bonds (September 6, 2013)

Tough Chopsticks Exasperated by tough demands by Chinese

BID

ASK

Global 2015

103.04

104.51

Global 2030

28.13

32.13

negotiators, President Correa in December 2009 angrily said that he would look to Taiwan for funding because the former were “worse than

BCE International Reserves In million US$

the IMF.” But with patience and recognition that

Nov 2012

3,442.96

-29.45%

no other source is willing to provide the amount

Jan 2013

2,827.10

-17.89%

Mar 2013

4,373.03

54.68%

May 2013

4,191.10

-4.16%

23 Aug 2013

5,184.61

23.70%

of cash – albeit at a high interest rate – that China can, Ecuador has entered a series of deals

Inflation August 2013

0.17%

Year to Date

1.10%

Year on Year

2.27%

that have led the Asian giant to be owed 36% of all government foreign debt. The agreed $2 billion investment in copper mine project by Chinese consortium CRCC-Tongguan also marks

Banks – Short and long term Deposits In million US$ April 2013

12,128.3

2,57%

the biggest current foreign direct investment

May 2013

12,139.5

0,09%

(FDI) in Ecuador. Smalltime Chinese investors in

June 2013

12,286.6

1,21%

July 2013

12,201.0

-0,70%

23 Aug 2013

12,403.6

1,66%

years past have set up stores and, of course, restaurants, but these came from different generations, all the way back to immigration that made the Pacific lowlands city of Quevedo a relative hub of Chinese presence in Ecuador decades ago.

Aside from this, Chinese FDI shouldn’t be overrated; officially touted Chinese “interest” in Ecuador has largely remained confined to loans, which

to

a

significant

extent

require

the

purchase of Chinese equipment, backed by Ecuadorian oil production, and even the hiring of Chinese workers.

Ecuadorian Oil Export Prices (US$ per barrel)

On the other hand, entering business in

Quito and Guayaquil Stock Exchanges

Ecuador has required some Chinese hiring of local

services, including

of course lawyers.

Participants have met many of the issues reported by companies dealing with Chinese negotiators in other countries, including tediously

Equities: Most Traded Securities Cash Value Issuing Company

(From to Aug 26 to Aug 30) (In Thousands US$)

CORPORACION FAVORITA C.A. MUTUALISTA PICHINCHA BANCO DE GUAYAQUIL

Closing Price

Last Date of Trade

(In US$)

619.57

4.09

05/09/2013

55.30

100.00

05/09/2013

30.90

0.65

05/09/2013

slow, bureaucratic processes and a penchant for

BANCO PICHINCHA

19.39

0.80

30/08/2013

numerical superstition. While an 8 symbolizes

FIDEICOMISO HOTEL CIUDAD DEL RÍO

16.00

3,900.00

27/08/2013

CONCLINA C.A.

10.67

1.90

04/09/2013

8.29

12.00

05/09/2013

5.85

5,850.00

26/08/2013

4.10

4,099.00

05/09/2013

3.50

66.02

05/09/2013

good luck, Chinese avoid ill-omened 4s and, more recognizably, 13s.

Other cultural issues

include never giving out business cards with only one hand, and, importantly, learning which kind of gifts Chinese find acceptable, as well as avoiding

confrontations

and

revealing

LA CUMBRE FORESTAL S.A. (PEAKFOREST) FIDEICOMISO OMNI HOSPITAL FIDEICOMISO GM HOTEL HOLCIM ECUADOR S,A,

Source: Precios máximos y mínimos de acciones & Pulso Bursátil Semanal issued by: Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ).

final

goals. Chinese prefer notably shorter, more

Fixed Income

precise contracts to the sometimes hip-high

Recent Relevant Issuances Structured by Analytica

deals pursued by Anglo-Saxon companies. But these

contracts

have

their

limitations.

Occasionally, Chinese firms have unilaterally reduced promised payments, as Ecuadorian

Issuing Company

Issue Type

Total Amount Issued (In Thousands US$)

Credit Rating

Term (In years)

Yield of Return

FARCOMED FYBECA

Securitization

12,500

AAA

5

7.50%

Corporate Bonds

5

7.75%

5,000

AA+ 3.75

7.50%

5

8.50%

Securitization

6,000

3

7.50%

1

6.00%

8

8.50%

5

7.50%

companies however have sometimes had to find out the hard way, to prove cost-effectiveness to headquarters

back

home.

This

may

CORPORACIÓN AZENDE

be

contributing to the chronic labor disputes at

AA+

Commercial Paper

3,000

AA+

Securitization

15,000

AAA

major Chinese construction sites in Ecuador, and one contractor, Tiesiju, lost its contract for the

EDESA

Chone multipurpose irrigation contract in June.

JAHER

Securitization

13,000

AA+

5

8.50%

While these kinds of issues have also happened

DEXICORPGRUPO KFC

Commercial Paper

7,500

AA+

1

6.00%

elsewhere, as does corruption, initial negotiations in

Ecuador

have

seen

the

Chinese

send

particularly junior negotiators just out of university, likely to gain experience. At the same time, Chinese

interest

does

appear

geared

they have what it takes to make money with Chinese partners.

Democracy in Ecuador

at

establishing a long-time presence in Ecuador. For all the difficulties, this means that China’s size and deep pockets matter. Ambitious companies will have to hone their skills and decide whether

Referendums have a dodgy track record among instruments of democracy. The 1945-1951 UK prime minister Clement Attlee (Labour) called them “a device for despots and dictators.” They have not spread very widely beyond Switzerland,

which accounts for more than half of them. Even

official efforts to keep the oil untouched as an

there

ecological scheme.

and

in

the

neighboring

statelet

of

Liechtenstein, they have on occasion been used

Demands for a referendum on the matter

to repress rights, with the canton of Appenzell-

quickly emerged. Leftwing organizations picked

Inerrhoden refusing to give women the right to

a well-regarded lawyer, Julio César Trujillo, to

vote until they were forced to do so in a 1990

lead the effort for a vote. The question Trujillo

federal supreme court order.

asked the constitutional court to approve runs:

Much as in other countries, in Ecuador,

“Are you in agreement with the Ecuadorian

referendums have commonly been a vote on

government maintaining the crude (oil) of the ITT,

the popularity of the incumbent at least as much

known as Block 43, underground indefinitely?”

as on the issue on the ballot. Rulers have tried to

The court, derided by some as the “beer court”

use referendums, as Attlee noted, to rally support

due to an alleged case of corruption involving a

behind

brewing company, has no deadline to approve

them.

Ahead

of

the

May

2011

referendum, populist president Rafael Correa

such

told them to “trust” him. Meanwhile, several of

question, the national elections council (CNE) will

the 10 questions, particularly those allowing the

approve and review efforts to collect the around

government to “temporarily” take control of the

600,000 signatures required to call a referendum.

judiciary,

Meanwhile, Correa has asked congress, which

specialists

were in

too law

complicated to

for

understand,

non-

severely

his

questions. If the court

party

dominates,

to

approves the

approve

the

undermining the democratic nature of that vote.

development of the field. Former environment

Now, a referendum could emerge from civil

minister Marcela Aguiñaga, now a pro-Correa

society. Several groups have begun to organize

legislator, has said that it could take only a

a referendum to avoid the development of the

month for the congress to rubber-stamp its

Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini (ITT) oil field inside

approval.

the Yasuní National Park. Holding some 840

Correa has already challenged opponents to

million recoverable barrels of heavy crude,

dare to try beating him in a referendum. To hold

Ecuador’s biggest known undeveloped field

a referendum would thus already be a victory for

represents around a fifth of the OPEC member’s

the “Yasuní defenders,” coming against the

remaining reserves. When he on August 15

concentrated might of the executive. Correa

announced his decision to develop the field,

has scoffed at them, saying the demonstrations

Correa pledged that state-owned oil company

have drawn an average of just 26 protestors,

Petroecuador’s upstream unit, Petroamazonas,

leading people on social networks to label

would use state-of-the-art technology to extract

themselves “I am #27,” mimicking one of the

the oil, affecting only slivers of the Amazon rain

main controversies of the Mexican presidential

forest under which it lies. The decision however

campaign. To force a referendum would be a

triggered

by

major sign of resilience for a civil society pushed

groups,

to the margins by a government seeking to

shocked by the decision as it came after years of

disarm media, non-governmental organizations,

immediate

environmentalists

and

protests indigenous

and practically any private foundation. What to

wants to control. During protests so far, police

do with ITT alone is a huge issue for Ecuador,

have already cordoned off the presidential

considering the field’s potential value both

palace to allow the perhaps 50 pro-Correa

below and above ground. But it would also test

demonstrators

40 years of an oil-led development model and

Independence Square. Correa also said that

not least the health of Ecuadorian democracy in

students caught protesting the decision to

general. The emergence of environmentalism

develop ITT could be kicked out of school. With

here leaves behind many stereotypes of the

both the constitutional court and the CNE in his

“tiny, impoverished” nation so unfairly and

pocket, the referendum will face a steep uphill

superficially mentioned by the Washington Post

battle.

to

have

their

run

of

earlier this year. The ITT issue thus also poses an opportunity for those economic liberals who

The editorial board of Analytica Investment's

might favor oil development but flinch at the

Ecuador Weekly Report publishes information

thought of it being carried out by Petroecuador,

obtained from expert sources, public information

whose SOTE pipeline popped in June while the

and media reports, and documents. Anonymity

parallel privately-held OCP continued moving

of interviewed sources is protected.

crude unscathed (albeit after a much smaller spill in April). It also challenges the binge spending and subsidies the Correa administration has embarked on amid its singular luck of receiving high oil earnings as parts of the Middle East remain engulfed by crisis.

Correa, meanwhile, can hardly be expected to act with political maturity in the face of the referendum. Last week, he once again became involved in an incident with a private citizen allegedly making an “obscene gesture” to the presidential motorcade. In this case, the person in question was singer-songwriter Jaime Guevara, for

decades

feared

by

politicians

for

his

irreverence. Correa in his Saturday nationwide radio and television address accused him of being drunk in the street early in the morning and of

carrying

meanwhile

“a is

whole known

drugstore.” for

being

Guevara “the

only

teetotaler of Quito’s Bohème” and the event again led to anger about the president’s abuses on the social networks the government has said it

Una producción de:

Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías.

www.hjbecdach.com