Boletín 255 · 11 - 18 de septiembre de 2013
Quito - Ecuador
artesjournal@hjbecdach.com
Tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil & Power
Documento completo de la solicitud enviada por el Presidente de la República Rafael Correa a la Asamblea Nacional declarando de interés nacional la explotación de los bloques 31 y 43, Parque Nacional Yasuní.
Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías. www.hjbecdach.com
Petróleo artesjounal@hjbecdach.com
I
N
D
I
C
Mes / año
Precio petróleo WTI
Septiembre 2008 Septiembre 2009 Septiembre 2010
$ 103,90 $ 69,46 $ 75,31
A
D
O R E Mes / año
Precio petróleo WTI
$106,86 (+ 0,48%) 11 de septiembre de 2013
S Precio petróleo WTI
Septiembre 2011 Septiembre 2012 Septiembre 2013
$ 85,61 $ 94,72 $ 104,61
Tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil & Power Publicación: 5 de septiembre de 2013
PRECIOS DE LOS PRINCIPALES MINERALES DEL MERCADO COBRE
ORO
PLATA
ALUMINIO
ESTAÑO
MOLIBDENO Fuente: www.cochilco.cl
Representantes de las empresa públicas y privadas que están participando en la Ecuador Oil&Power 2013.
E
n días pasados se realizó el tercer Desayuno de Trabajo del Directorio de Ecuador Oil&Power, para concretar los temas fundamentales que se tratarán y analizarán en el Ciclo de Conferencias Magistrales y Técnicas que se realiza en el marco de la XIV Ecuador Oil&Power 2013, los días 25, 26 y 27 de septiembre, en el Centro de Exposiciones Quito. Después de un profundo análisis, y de acuerdo a la coyuntura nacional con respecto al ITT, uno de los temas que será tratado desde varios puntos de vista, será la inminente explotación de los bloques ITT ubicados en el Parque Nacional Yasuní, y que es de interés nacional. Su explicación técnica estará a cargo de Petroamazonas
2
EP, los ámbitos económicos y sociales serán expuestos por los ministerios vinculados, como el MRNNR, Ministerio de Coordinador de Política Económica, Ministerio del Ambiente, así como las subsecretarías del ramo. También participará la empresa privad, analistas económicos, políticos, ambientales y sociales, así como la opinión pública. Además de este tema importante, tenemos otros temas de mucha relevancia para el desarrollo del Ecuador, como: - Cambios en la matriz energética y eliminación de los subsidios. - Refinación y mejoramiento de producción de combustibles.
- Nuevas Tecnologías para un desarrollo petrolero responsable. - Planificación Hidrocarburífera para el mediano y largo plazo. - Energías Renovables. - El plan de desarrollo de los Bloque ITT. - Responsabilidad Social y Relaciones Comunitarias. - Sistema de almacenamiento, transporte y distribución de GLP - Zona Sur. - Seguridad, salud y ambiente. Este evento constituye hace más de 10 años como el más importante del sector hidrocarburífero ecuatoriano, y en el que este año tomará una relevancia aún mayor por los temas que se tratarán en torno al mismo.
ANALYTICA INVESTMENTS WEEKLYREPORT@ANALYTICAINVESTMENTS.COM
Ramiro Crespo Chairman of the Editorial Board
WWW.ANALYTICA.COM.EC
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ECUADOR WEEKLY REPORT® For the week of September 2 – September 6, 2013
Ecuadorian Global Bonds (September 6, 2013)
Tough Chopsticks Exasperated by tough demands by Chinese
BID
ASK
Global 2015
103.04
104.51
Global 2030
28.13
32.13
negotiators, President Correa in December 2009 angrily said that he would look to Taiwan for funding because the former were “worse than
BCE International Reserves In million US$
the IMF.” But with patience and recognition that
Nov 2012
3,442.96
-29.45%
no other source is willing to provide the amount
Jan 2013
2,827.10
-17.89%
Mar 2013
4,373.03
54.68%
May 2013
4,191.10
-4.16%
23 Aug 2013
5,184.61
23.70%
of cash – albeit at a high interest rate – that China can, Ecuador has entered a series of deals
Inflation August 2013
0.17%
Year to Date
1.10%
Year on Year
2.27%
that have led the Asian giant to be owed 36% of all government foreign debt. The agreed $2 billion investment in copper mine project by Chinese consortium CRCC-Tongguan also marks
Banks – Short and long term Deposits In million US$ April 2013
12,128.3
2,57%
the biggest current foreign direct investment
May 2013
12,139.5
0,09%
(FDI) in Ecuador. Smalltime Chinese investors in
June 2013
12,286.6
1,21%
July 2013
12,201.0
-0,70%
23 Aug 2013
12,403.6
1,66%
years past have set up stores and, of course, restaurants, but these came from different generations, all the way back to immigration that made the Pacific lowlands city of Quevedo a relative hub of Chinese presence in Ecuador decades ago. Aside from this, Chinese FDI shouldn’t be overrated; officially touted Chinese “interest” in Ecuador has largely remained confined to loans, which
to
a
significant
extent
require
the
purchase of Chinese equipment, backed by Ecuadorian oil production, and even the hiring of Chinese workers.
Ecuadorian Oil Export Prices (US$ per barrel)
On the other hand, entering business in
Quito and Guayaquil Stock Exchanges
Ecuador has required some Chinese hiring of local
services, including
of course lawyers.
Participants have met many of the issues reported by companies dealing with Chinese negotiators in other countries, including tediously
Equities: Most Traded Securities Cash Value Issuing Company
(From to Aug 26 to Aug 30) (In Thousands US$)
CORPORACION FAVORITA C.A. MUTUALISTA PICHINCHA BANCO DE GUAYAQUIL
Closing Price
Last Date of Trade
(In US$)
619.57
4.09
05/09/2013
55.30
100.00
05/09/2013
30.90
0.65
05/09/2013
slow, bureaucratic processes and a penchant for
BANCO PICHINCHA
19.39
0.80
30/08/2013
numerical superstition. While an 8 symbolizes
FIDEICOMISO HOTEL CIUDAD DEL RÍO
16.00
3,900.00
27/08/2013
CONCLINA C.A.
10.67
1.90
04/09/2013
8.29
12.00
05/09/2013
5.85
5,850.00
26/08/2013
4.10
4,099.00
05/09/2013
3.50
66.02
05/09/2013
good luck, Chinese avoid ill-omened 4s and, more recognizably, 13s.
Other cultural issues
include never giving out business cards with only one hand, and, importantly, learning which kind of gifts Chinese find acceptable, as well as avoiding
confrontations
and
revealing
LA CUMBRE FORESTAL S.A. (PEAKFOREST) FIDEICOMISO OMNI HOSPITAL FIDEICOMISO GM HOTEL HOLCIM ECUADOR S,A,
Source: Precios máximos y mínimos de acciones & Pulso Bursátil Semanal issued by: Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ).
final
goals. Chinese prefer notably shorter, more
Fixed Income
precise contracts to the sometimes hip-high
Recent Relevant Issuances Structured by Analytica
deals pursued by Anglo-Saxon companies. But these
contracts
have
their
limitations.
Occasionally, Chinese firms have unilaterally reduced promised payments, as Ecuadorian
Issuing Company
Issue Type
Total Amount Issued (In Thousands US$)
Credit Rating
Term (In years)
Yield of Return
FARCOMED FYBECA
Securitization
12,500
AAA
5
7.50%
Corporate Bonds
5
7.75%
5,000
AA+ 3.75
7.50%
5
8.50%
Securitization
6,000
3
7.50%
1
6.00%
8
8.50%
5
7.50%
companies however have sometimes had to find out the hard way, to prove cost-effectiveness to headquarters
back
home.
This
may
CORPORACIÓN AZENDE
be
contributing to the chronic labor disputes at
AA+
Commercial Paper
3,000
AA+
Securitization
15,000
AAA
major Chinese construction sites in Ecuador, and one contractor, Tiesiju, lost its contract for the
EDESA
Chone multipurpose irrigation contract in June.
JAHER
Securitization
13,000
AA+
5
8.50%
While these kinds of issues have also happened
DEXICORPGRUPO KFC
Commercial Paper
7,500
AA+
1
6.00%
elsewhere, as does corruption, initial negotiations in
Ecuador
have
seen
the
Chinese
send
particularly junior negotiators just out of university, likely to gain experience. At the same time, Chinese
interest
does
appear
geared
they have what it takes to make money with Chinese partners. Democracy in Ecuador
at
establishing a long-time presence in Ecuador. For all the difficulties, this means that China’s size and deep pockets matter. Ambitious companies will have to hone their skills and decide whether
Referendums have a dodgy track record among instruments of democracy. The 1945-1951 UK prime minister Clement Attlee (Labour) called them “a device for despots and dictators.” They have not spread very widely beyond Switzerland,
which accounts for more than half of them. Even
official efforts to keep the oil untouched as an
there
ecological scheme.
and
in
the
neighboring
statelet
of
Liechtenstein, they have on occasion been used
Demands for a referendum on the matter
to repress rights, with the canton of Appenzell-
quickly emerged. Leftwing organizations picked
Inerrhoden refusing to give women the right to
a well-regarded lawyer, Julio César Trujillo, to
vote until they were forced to do so in a 1990
lead the effort for a vote. The question Trujillo
federal supreme court order.
asked the constitutional court to approve runs:
Much as in other countries, in Ecuador,
“Are you in agreement with the Ecuadorian
referendums have commonly been a vote on
government maintaining the crude (oil) of the ITT,
the popularity of the incumbent at least as much
known as Block 43, underground indefinitely?”
as on the issue on the ballot. Rulers have tried to
The court, derided by some as the “beer court”
use referendums, as Attlee noted, to rally support
due to an alleged case of corruption involving a
behind
brewing company, has no deadline to approve
them.
Ahead
of
the
May
2011
referendum, populist president Rafael Correa
such
told them to “trust” him. Meanwhile, several of
question, the national elections council (CNE) will
the 10 questions, particularly those allowing the
approve and review efforts to collect the around
government to “temporarily” take control of the
600,000 signatures required to call a referendum.
judiciary,
Meanwhile, Correa has asked congress, which
specialists
were in
too law
complicated to
for
understand,
non-
severely
his
questions. If the court
party
dominates,
to
approves the
approve
the
undermining the democratic nature of that vote.
development of the field. Former environment
Now, a referendum could emerge from civil
minister Marcela Aguiñaga, now a pro-Correa
society. Several groups have begun to organize
legislator, has said that it could take only a
a referendum to avoid the development of the
month for the congress to rubber-stamp its
Ishpingo-Tambococha-Tiputini (ITT) oil field inside
approval.
the Yasuní National Park. Holding some 840
Correa has already challenged opponents to
million recoverable barrels of heavy crude,
dare to try beating him in a referendum. To hold
Ecuador’s biggest known undeveloped field
a referendum would thus already be a victory for
represents around a fifth of the OPEC member’s
the “Yasuní defenders,” coming against the
remaining reserves. When he on August 15
concentrated might of the executive. Correa
announced his decision to develop the field,
has scoffed at them, saying the demonstrations
Correa pledged that state-owned oil company
have drawn an average of just 26 protestors,
Petroecuador’s upstream unit, Petroamazonas,
leading people on social networks to label
would use state-of-the-art technology to extract
themselves “I am #27,” mimicking one of the
the oil, affecting only slivers of the Amazon rain
main controversies of the Mexican presidential
forest under which it lies. The decision however
campaign. To force a referendum would be a
triggered
by
major sign of resilience for a civil society pushed
groups,
to the margins by a government seeking to
shocked by the decision as it came after years of
disarm media, non-governmental organizations,
immediate
environmentalists
and
protests indigenous
and practically any private foundation. What to
wants to control. During protests so far, police
do with ITT alone is a huge issue for Ecuador,
have already cordoned off the presidential
considering the field’s potential value both
palace to allow the perhaps 50 pro-Correa
below and above ground. But it would also test
demonstrators
40 years of an oil-led development model and
Independence Square. Correa also said that
not least the health of Ecuadorian democracy in
students caught protesting the decision to
general. The emergence of environmentalism
develop ITT could be kicked out of school. With
here leaves behind many stereotypes of the
both the constitutional court and the CNE in his
“tiny, impoverished” nation so unfairly and
pocket, the referendum will face a steep uphill
superficially mentioned by the Washington Post
battle.
to
have
their
run
of
earlier this year. The ITT issue thus also poses an opportunity for those economic liberals who
The editorial board of Analytica Investment's
might favor oil development but flinch at the
Ecuador Weekly Report publishes information
thought of it being carried out by Petroecuador,
obtained from expert sources, public information
whose SOTE pipeline popped in June while the
and media reports, and documents. Anonymity
parallel privately-held OCP continued moving
of interviewed sources is protected.
crude unscathed (albeit after a much smaller spill in April). It also challenges the binge spending and subsidies the Correa administration has embarked on amid its singular luck of receiving high oil earnings as parts of the Middle East remain engulfed by crisis. Correa, meanwhile, can hardly be expected to act with political maturity in the face of the referendum. Last week, he once again became involved in an incident with a private citizen allegedly making an “obscene gesture” to the presidential motorcade. In this case, the person in question was singer-songwriter Jaime Guevara, for
decades
feared
by
politicians
for
his
irreverence. Correa in his Saturday nationwide radio and television address accused him of being drunk in the street early in the morning and of
carrying
meanwhile
“a is
whole known
drugstore.” for
being
Guevara “the
only
teetotaler of Quito’s Bohème” and the event again led to anger about the president’s abuses on the social networks the government has said it
Una producción de:
Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías. www.hjbecdach.com