Boletín 297 · 25 de septiembre de 2014
Quito - Ecuador
artesjournal@hjbecdach.com
Éxito total en la inauguración de la Expo-Conference XV Ecuador Oil & Power
Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías. www.hjbecdachferias.com
Petróleo artesjounal@hjbecdach.com
Septiembre1969 Septiembre 1979 Septiembre 1989
$ 3,35 $ 28,50 $ 19,59
$ 92,85 (- 0,02%) 25 de septiembre de 2014
Septiembre 1999 Septiembre 2009 Septiembre 2014
$ 23,88 $ 69,46 $ 104.61
Éxito total en la inauguración de la ExpoConference XV Ecuador Oil & Power Artículo tomado de: María Fernanda Arauz / Journal Oil-Mineral Fotografías: PROIMAGEN Publicación: 25 de septiembre de 2014
C
on la presencia de 400 empresas, más de 600 marcas nacionales e internacionales, y la visita de 4.000 personas, se inauguró la XV Ecuador Oil & Power. La cita, para los interesados en conocer nuevos escenarios petroleros, será hasta el 26 de octubre próximo.
2
Durante el primer día los asistentes pudieron participar en un almuerzo conferencia con la presencia de destacados representantes del sector. Asistieron funcionarios de Gobierno e invitados internacionales. En la tarde, se efectuaron paneles de debate y conferencias magistrales.
Al término de las charlas HJ Becdach, empresa organizadora, realizó el acto de inauguración. Dio la bienvenida a los presentes, agradeció a sus colaboradores y ofreció un cóctel al concluir la noche con todos sus asistentes.
La XV Ecuador Oil & Power en imรกgenes
3
Oportunidades para los negocios petroleros en el Ecuador
23, 24 y 25
Septiembre 2015 Quito - Ecuador Organiza:
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8ª EXPO-CONFERENCE
EXPOMINAS Maquinaria pesada y CONSTRUCCIÓN TRADE•EXHIBITION
25, 26 y 27
MARZO
2015
Ecuador
hacia una era de mineria responsable
Organiza: Información y ventas Telf.: (593 2) 3324 512 / 3324 544 Emails: ferias@hjbecdach.com ventas@hjbecdach.com
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ANALYTICA INVESTMENTS WEEKLYREPORT@ANALYTICAINVESTMENTS.COM
Ramiro Crespo Chairman of the Editorial Board
WWW.ANALYTICA.COM.EC
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ECUADOR WEEKLY REPORT® For the week of September 15–September 19, 2014
Ecuadorian Global Bonds (September 19, 2014)
After the Alchemists Since 1972, the Amazon northeast has formed the heart of Ecuador's oil industry. From 2016 on, president Rafael Correa's administration plans to
BID
ASK
Global 2015
105.78
106.53
Global 2030
28.13
32.13
BCE International Reserves In million US$ Jan 2014
4,182.73
3.25%
start oil production in the billion-barrel Ishpingo-
Mar 2014
3,976.25
-4.94%
Tambococha-Tiputini (ITT) deposit, very near the
May 2014
4,010.31
0.86%
border with Peru and largely inside the Yasuní
Jul 2014
5,557.39
38.58%
Sept, 12 2014
5,771.32
3.85%
National Park. This has become a politically
Inflation August
species, as well as for Amazon tribes still clinging
1.90%
Year on Year
3.67%
Source: Banco Central del Ecuador
Banks – Short and long term Deposits In million US$
to their ancestral ways. But in the long run, oil
Apr 2014
14,007.15
-0.58%
production may well shift south and west. It's time
May 2014
13,988.28
2.82%
for the administration to lay the groundwork for
Jun, 2014
14,129.60
1.01%
Jul,2014
14,275.83
1.03%
August 31,2014
14,482.90
1.45%
this. On September 18, Agip, a unit of Italian
Source: Banco Central del Ecuador
energy giant Eni, announced the discovery of a 300-million heavy crude deposit at Oglan in its
Ecuadorian Oil Export Prices (US$ per barrel)
block 10, well to the southwest. This surprising find is the most significant in a generation. It follows news
that
the
administration
has
begun
proceedings to terminate the contract with Ivanhoe Energy, a minor company, that has failed in its promise to develop the giant Pungarayacu field, further north inside block 20. After the flop of the November 2013 oil tender of most
of
Ecuador's
Amazon
southeast,
government shifted its focus on the ITT. But this
the Source:Banco Central del Ecuador
0.21%
Year to Date
charged issue, given that the area is a refuge for a staggering number of plant and animal
2014
has carried a significant political cost, with
Quito and Guayaquil Stock Exchanges
environmentalists collecting 800,000 signatures to
Equities Most Traded
attempt to block its development. While the politically-influenced electoral board blocked their bid to force a referendum on the ITT, as a political issue, development of the field will continue to simmer.
Cash Value Issuing Company
Closing Price
(From September 8 to September 12, 2014)
Last Date of Trade
(In US$)
(In Thousands US$)
CORPORACIÓNFAVORITA C.A.
3,300.40
4.14
19/09/2014
MUTUALISTA PICHINCHA
77.90
100.00
19/09/2014
HOLCIM ECUADOR S.A.
40.42
71.50
17/09/2014
CERVECERIA NACIONAL
30.76
51.27
18/09/2014
FIDEICOMISO OMNI HOSPITAL
23.90
6,000
18/09/2014
LA VANGUARDIA FORESTAL (VANGUARFOREST)
25.93
2.10
19/09/214
HOLDING TONICORP S.A.
22.37
5.50
19/09/2014
BANCO GUAYAQUIL
22.02
0.71
12/09/214
With Agip's Oglan find accounting for a similar quality of oil and a full third of the ITT's reserves, the administration's focus is bound to change, beginning soon. Oglan suprisingly holds as much as some of the more optimistic estimates for the whole of the Amazon Southeast, and provides more evidence of the prime potential for oil reserves piedmont.
offered It
by
also
the
eastern
shows
that,
Andean
Source: Precios máximos y mínimos de acciones & Pulso Bursátil Semanal issued by: Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ).
regarding
Fixed Income
Ecuadorian oil, "the low-hanging fruit has been
Securities lead by Analytica
picked," as some analysts say. Agip will likely take the
administration
by
its
word
that
new
investments in Oglan, given their higher risk, will guarantee higher possibilities for returns. Given
its
track
record,
the
Correa
administration will likely seek to maximize state revenue. It should consider treading more softly however. A revolutionary option would be to make local communities, particularly indigenous
Issuing Company
Issue Type
Total Amount Issued (In Thousand US$)
ECONOFARM SANA SANA
Securitization
12,500
AAA
5
7.25%
FARCOMED FYBECA
Securitization
12,500
AAA
5
7.50%
EDESA
Commercial Paper
10,000
AAA
1
5.25%
DEXICORP-GRUPO KFC
Commercial Paper
7,500
AA+
1
6.00%
3
7.50%
URBANO EXPRESS
Securitization
5
8.00%
Credit Rating
Term (In years)
Yield of Return
4,000 AAA5,000
groups, stakeholders, beyond strict observance of consultation rules. This would mark a major change from its previous track record, where it
from 4.3 to 12.1 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately,
has construed superficial events that failed to
the company has failed to meet the pledges
convince
including
stated in its 2008 contract, which included
indigenous organizations as well as potential
producing 30,000 to 60,000 barrels a day of light
investors. The emphasis on speed has only served
crude oil, thanks to a transformation of the tar-
to delay development.
like ultra-heavy oil of the deposit on site through
anyone
of
sincerity,
Pungarayacu is the best example for this. As
a unique technology. Correa may have truly
Ivanhoe Energy, the small oil firm that Correa in
believed in the appealing promises Ivanhoe
2007 picked to develop the field, it's a world class
officials
deposit due to its sheer size, holding anywhere
actually pull it off.
made
that
the
technology
would
Major
oil
however
Pungarayacu would have by now emerged as
completely ignored Ivanhoe in similar deposits in
an alternative to the much smaller ITT deposit,
Alberta, Canada, and North Dakota, US, instead
which has cost Correa a painful amount of
using other techniques to extract millions of
political
barrels
other
approves a dramatic shift to reduce public
unconventional deposits. Correa imposed the
spending, which he can't be expected to do
contract despite opposition from government oil
unless a major economic crisis were to force him
officials,
2008
to do so, he has no choice but to continue the
Petroecuador meeting have long made plain.
plan to exploit ITT. Ecuador has clearly suffered
Private oil executives have remained skeptical,
an opportunity cost from Correa's personal
while Ecuador's judiciary has ignored legal
choice of Ivanhoe.
of
as
companies
oil
from
tar
minutes
have
sands
from
a
and
May,
capital
to
develop. Unless
Correa
complaints over the president's decision to hand
Pungarayacu will pose a challenge to anyone
out the field without a tender, which is not legally
who desires to develop it. Questions remain as to
possible for companies in the private sector.
how near deposits are to the surface, which
According to oil consultants, Ivanhoe's activity
could impose at least partial oil mining as a
has gone nowhere, with results from exploratory
requirement. Huge quantities of dust would likely
wells only confirming what was already known. In
be ejected into the vicinity. The developer would
fact, the deposit has probably been known for
need to pick the right technology. Working with
centuries, given its name, which in Quichua
the administration, it would have to work hard to
means "tar water." At present, the government
gain the trust of stakeholders, above all, the
has
Rukullacta
started
talks
with
the
China
National
Quichua
community,
but
also
Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), a shareholder of Andes
companies that have made the area a hub for
Petroleum and PetroOriental, which operate
Amazon tourism (Correa himself likes to visit the
several oil blocks in Ecuador, regarding a
Belgian-run Hakuna Matata lodge in the area).
possible development of the field. It is also
Ivanhoe has failed here too, and to gain
working on cancelling Ivanhoe's contract. Given
Rukullacta's trust will be a delicate challenge (in
the tiny company's track record of failing to
Ecuador, the state owns oil resources, despite
meet promises, it would appear illogical for the
the land having been recognized as owned by
government or the Chinese to agree to stay on
the native community). For the administration, it
as a junior partner with CNPC in Pungarayacu, as
would be wiser to avoid the maximization of
it desires.
profits that has driven it to rush development
CNPC is one option. At this stage however, the administration has the opportunity to review
projects, triggering indigenous resistance in a number of areas.
its options and cut losses. Correa says that the
Proper development of Pungarayacu would
Ivanhoe adventure didn't cost Ecuador anything
also force the government to give up on another
since it was the company that put up the
costly pipe dream, the Pacific Coast Refinery, in
money. This is only part of the matter however.
which it has already sunk near $1 billion. It was to
Done
have begun working last year, but despite
properly,
with
a
real
oil
major,
downsizing of the plant's planned capacity by a
Featuring the likeness of early 20th-century liberal
third to 200,000 barrels a day, the government
president Eloy Alfaro, the eponymous Twitter
has yet to secure the $9 billion it had said it
distributed "troll" attacks on critics of the Correa
would receive by the end of this month thanks to
administration in viciously foul, below-the-belt
an entry of CNPC into the project as a minority
language. Following the release of the video on
shareholder. CNPC would require Pungarayacu's
YouTube, Ximah's owner, Juan Carlos Vรกscones,
oil for the new refinery to avoid ending up as a
acknowledged that his company had launched
white elephant. To drop the refinery would free
a "fan page" for El Patriota to capture interest
the government to shop around Pungarayacu to
even in the face of the Twitter accounts
additional major oil companies, with the proven
"unscrupulous
ability to develop the field, also pushing CNPC to
media reports, Ximah's client list, which now only
demonstrate that it may be the best choice. For
mentions the government, as well as a series of
the government, it would help it show foreign
private
investors a willingness to work hard at following
government offices, including the presidency
the trajectory it has undertaken in attracting
and vice presidency, police and interior ministry,
buyers in its return to international bond markets.
as well as a government-sponsored tourism
management."
customers,
has
According
included
to
many
campaign. This raised suspicion that the El Tweets and Trolls
Patriota account receives government funding as a so-called "troll center." Vรกscones has
Nobody advertises more on social micro-
refused to answer further media questions,
blogging service Twitter in Ecuador than the
attacking
administration, we have been told by a well-
"there's absolutely no reason for these journalistic
informed source. With newspapers' Web pages
inquiries." After the outcry on social networks,
and internet media platforms obliged by law to
marketing company IMS, the company that
force
personal
represents Twitter in Latin America, announced
information of commenters, including addresses,
that it would open an office in Ecuador;
under the media law whose constitutionality the
previously, it worked through Ximah.
commenters
to
disclose
Constitutional Court upheld this week, social networking
sites
have
concentrated
public
newspaper
Separately, public
late
relations
firm
El
Universo
filings
from
because
controversial
MCSquared
(based
in
debate in recent months. Mysterious accounts
Brooklyn and Quito) with the US government also
have emerged to blast opponents or individuals,
triggered social-network ire. The documents
including companies like Chevron.
showed that $500,000 of $1.9 million went to pay
Members of the public have long suspected
for visits of celebrities to an Amazon oil well with
that these might be receiving public money.
pollution the government blames on Chevron,
Proof of this emerged in a video revealed earlier
but where documents point to Petroecuador's
this month, showing that an Internet marketing
responsibility.
company called Ximah Digital had managed at
acknowledged that she was paid a speaker's
least
fee, but far less than the $180,391 claimed by
a
site called
"El
Patriota."
US
actor
Mia
Farrow
MCSquared. This and the lack of accounting for another $4.5 million has raised further questions – and criticism – about the use of taxpayers' money.
The editorial board of Analytica Investment's Ecuador Weekly Report publishes information obtained from expert sources, public information and media reports, and documents. Anonymity of interviewed sources is protected.
Una producción de:
Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías. www.hjbecdachferias.com