Journal Oil - Mineral Nº 297(26 septiembre)

Boletín 297 · 26 de septiembre de 2014

Quito - Ecuador

artesjournal@hjbecdach.com

La XV Ecuador Oil & Power avanza con éxito

Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías.

www.hjbecdachferias.com

Petróleo artesjounal@hjbecdach.com

Septiembre1969 Septiembre 1979 Septiembre 1989

$ 3,35 $ 28,50 $ 19,59

$ 92,85 (- 0,02%) 25 de septiembre de 2014

Septiembre 1999 Septiembre 2009 Septiembre 2014

$ 23,88 $ 69,46 $ 104.61

La XV Ecuador Oil & Power avanza con éxito Artículo tomado de: María Fernanda Arauz / Journal Oil-Mineral Fotografías: PROIMAGEN Publicación: 26 de septiembre de 2014

E

l segundo día de feria se desarrolló con conferencias magistrales, paneles de debate y conferencias técnicas. Importantes funcionarios de Gobierno asistieron al evento. En la mañana, durante el almuerzo, expusieron representantes de Petroamazonas, del Ministerio de

2

Ambiente, de Coca Codo Sinclair, entre otros.

Entre los invitados internacionales, que aportaron de forma positiva al encuentro petrolero, estuvieron representantes de Argentina, Colombia y Brasil. Al final, de la tarde se realizó

una ronda de preguntas.

Simultáneamente, en otro salón, diversas empresas del sector expusieron temas relacionados a los asistentes. Además, los visitantes de los stands se deleitaron con música, bocaditos y bebidas.

La XV Ecuador Oil & Power en imรกgenes

3

Oportunidades para los negocios petroleros en el Ecuador

23, 24 y 25

Septiembre 2015 Quito - Ecuador Organiza:

Informaci贸n y ventas: Telf.: (593 2) 3324 544 / 2558 382 Emails: ferias@hjbecdach.com ventas@hjbecdach.com

www.hjbecdachferias.com

8ª EXPO-CONFERENCE

EXPOMINAS Maquinaria pesada y CONSTRUCCIÓN TRADE•EXHIBITION

25, 26 y 27

MARZO

2015

Ecuador

hacia una era de mineria responsable

Organiza: Información y ventas Telf.: (593 2) 3324 512 / 3324 544 Emails: ferias@hjbecdach.com ventas@hjbecdach.com

www.hjbecdachferias.com

ANALYTICA INVESTMENTS WEEKLYREPORT@ANALYTICAINVESTMENTS.COM

Ramiro Crespo Chairman of the Editorial Board

WWW.ANALYTICA.COM.EC

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ECUADOR WEEKLY REPORT® For the week of September 15–September 19, 2014

Ecuadorian Global Bonds (September 19, 2014)

After the Alchemists Since 1972, the Amazon northeast has formed the heart of Ecuador's oil industry. From 2016 on, president Rafael Correa's administration plans to

BID

ASK

Global 2015

105.78

106.53

Global 2030

28.13

32.13

BCE International Reserves In million US$ Jan 2014

4,182.73

3.25%

start oil production in the billion-barrel Ishpingo-

Mar 2014

3,976.25

-4.94%

Tambococha-Tiputini (ITT) deposit, very near the

May 2014

4,010.31

0.86%

border with Peru and largely inside the Yasuní

Jul 2014

5,557.39

38.58%

Sept, 12 2014

5,771.32

3.85%

National Park. This has become a politically

Inflation August

species, as well as for Amazon tribes still clinging

1.90%

Year on Year

3.67%

Source: Banco Central del Ecuador

Banks – Short and long term Deposits In million US$

to their ancestral ways. But in the long run, oil

Apr 2014

14,007.15

-0.58%

production may well shift south and west. It's time

May 2014

13,988.28

2.82%

for the administration to lay the groundwork for

Jun, 2014

14,129.60

1.01%

Jul,2014

14,275.83

1.03%

August 31,2014

14,482.90

1.45%

this.

On September 18, Agip, a unit of Italian

Source: Banco Central del Ecuador

energy giant Eni, announced the discovery of a 300-million heavy crude deposit at Oglan in its

Ecuadorian Oil Export Prices (US$ per barrel)

block 10, well to the southwest. This surprising find is the most significant in a generation. It follows news

that

the

administration

has

begun

proceedings to terminate the contract with Ivanhoe Energy, a minor company, that has failed in its promise to develop the giant Pungarayacu field, further north inside block 20.

After the flop of the November 2013 oil tender of most

of

Ecuador's

Amazon

southeast,

government shifted its focus on the ITT. But this

the Source:Banco Central del Ecuador

0.21%

Year to Date

charged issue, given that the area is a refuge for a staggering number of plant and animal

2014

has carried a significant political cost, with

Quito and Guayaquil Stock Exchanges

environmentalists collecting 800,000 signatures to

Equities Most Traded

attempt to block its development. While the politically-influenced electoral board blocked their bid to force a referendum on the ITT, as a political issue, development of the field will continue to simmer.

Cash Value Issuing Company

Closing Price

(From September 8 to September 12, 2014)

Last Date of Trade

(In US$)

(In Thousands US$)

CORPORACIÓNFAVORITA C.A.

3,300.40

4.14

19/09/2014

MUTUALISTA PICHINCHA

77.90

100.00

19/09/2014

HOLCIM ECUADOR S.A.

40.42

71.50

17/09/2014

CERVECERIA NACIONAL

30.76

51.27

18/09/2014

FIDEICOMISO OMNI HOSPITAL

23.90

6,000

18/09/2014

LA VANGUARDIA FORESTAL (VANGUARFOREST)

25.93

2.10

19/09/214

HOLDING TONICORP S.A.

22.37

5.50

19/09/2014

BANCO GUAYAQUIL

22.02

0.71

12/09/214

With Agip's Oglan find accounting for a similar quality of oil and a full third of the ITT's reserves, the administration's focus is bound to change, beginning soon. Oglan suprisingly holds as much as some of the more optimistic estimates for the whole of the Amazon Southeast, and provides more evidence of the prime potential for oil reserves piedmont.

offered It

by

also

the

eastern

shows

that,

Andean

Source: Precios máximos y mínimos de acciones & Pulso Bursátil Semanal issued by: Bolsa de Valores de Quito (BVQ).

regarding

Fixed Income

Ecuadorian oil, "the low-hanging fruit has been

Securities lead by Analytica

picked," as some analysts say. Agip will likely take the

administration

by

its

word

that

new

investments in Oglan, given their higher risk, will guarantee higher possibilities for returns.

Given

its

track

record,

the

Correa

administration will likely seek to maximize state revenue. It should consider treading more softly however. A revolutionary option would be to make local communities, particularly indigenous

Issuing Company

Issue Type

Total Amount Issued (In Thousand US$)

ECONOFARM SANA SANA

Securitization

12,500

AAA

5

7.25%

FARCOMED FYBECA

Securitization

12,500

AAA

5

7.50%

EDESA

Commercial Paper

10,000

AAA

1

5.25%

DEXICORP-GRUPO KFC

Commercial Paper

7,500

AA+

1

6.00%

3

7.50%

URBANO EXPRESS

Securitization

5

8.00%

Credit Rating

Term (In years)

Yield of Return

4,000 AAA5,000

groups, stakeholders, beyond strict observance of consultation rules. This would mark a major change from its previous track record, where it

from 4.3 to 12.1 billion barrels of oil. Unfortunately,

has construed superficial events that failed to

the company has failed to meet the pledges

convince

including

stated in its 2008 contract, which included

indigenous organizations as well as potential

producing 30,000 to 60,000 barrels a day of light

investors. The emphasis on speed has only served

crude oil, thanks to a transformation of the tar-

to delay development.

like ultra-heavy oil of the deposit on site through

anyone

of

sincerity,

Pungarayacu is the best example for this. As

a unique technology. Correa may have truly

Ivanhoe Energy, the small oil firm that Correa in

believed in the appealing promises Ivanhoe

2007 picked to develop the field, it's a world class

officials

deposit due to its sheer size, holding anywhere

actually pull it off.

made

that

the

technology

would

Major

oil

however

Pungarayacu would have by now emerged as

completely ignored Ivanhoe in similar deposits in

an alternative to the much smaller ITT deposit,

Alberta, Canada, and North Dakota, US, instead

which has cost Correa a painful amount of

using other techniques to extract millions of

political

barrels

other

approves a dramatic shift to reduce public

unconventional deposits. Correa imposed the

spending, which he can't be expected to do

contract despite opposition from government oil

unless a major economic crisis were to force him

officials,

2008

to do so, he has no choice but to continue the

Petroecuador meeting have long made plain.

plan to exploit ITT. Ecuador has clearly suffered

Private oil executives have remained skeptical,

an opportunity cost from Correa's personal

while Ecuador's judiciary has ignored legal

choice of Ivanhoe.

of

as

companies

oil

from

tar

minutes

have

sands

from

a

and

May,

capital

to

develop. Unless

Correa

complaints over the president's decision to hand

Pungarayacu will pose a challenge to anyone

out the field without a tender, which is not legally

who desires to develop it. Questions remain as to

possible for companies in the private sector.

how near deposits are to the surface, which

According to oil consultants, Ivanhoe's activity

could impose at least partial oil mining as a

has gone nowhere, with results from exploratory

requirement. Huge quantities of dust would likely

wells only confirming what was already known. In

be ejected into the vicinity. The developer would

fact, the deposit has probably been known for

need to pick the right technology. Working with

centuries, given its name, which in Quichua

the administration, it would have to work hard to

means "tar water." At present, the government

gain the trust of stakeholders, above all, the

has

Rukullacta

started

talks

with

the

China

National

Quichua

community,

but

also

Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), a shareholder of Andes

companies that have made the area a hub for

Petroleum and PetroOriental, which operate

Amazon tourism (Correa himself likes to visit the

several oil blocks in Ecuador, regarding a

Belgian-run Hakuna Matata lodge in the area).

possible development of the field. It is also

Ivanhoe has failed here too, and to gain

working on cancelling Ivanhoe's contract. Given

Rukullacta's trust will be a delicate challenge (in

the tiny company's track record of failing to

Ecuador, the state owns oil resources, despite

meet promises, it would appear illogical for the

the land having been recognized as owned by

government or the Chinese to agree to stay on

the native community). For the administration, it

as a junior partner with CNPC in Pungarayacu, as

would be wiser to avoid the maximization of

it desires.

profits that has driven it to rush development

CNPC is one option. At this stage however, the administration has the opportunity to review

projects, triggering indigenous resistance in a number of areas.

its options and cut losses. Correa says that the

Proper development of Pungarayacu would

Ivanhoe adventure didn't cost Ecuador anything

also force the government to give up on another

since it was the company that put up the

costly pipe dream, the Pacific Coast Refinery, in

money. This is only part of the matter however.

which it has already sunk near $1 billion. It was to

Done

have begun working last year, but despite

properly,

with

a

real

oil

major,

downsizing of the plant's planned capacity by a

Featuring the likeness of early 20th-century liberal

third to 200,000 barrels a day, the government

president Eloy Alfaro, the eponymous Twitter

has yet to secure the $9 billion it had said it

distributed "troll" attacks on critics of the Correa

would receive by the end of this month thanks to

administration in viciously foul, below-the-belt

an entry of CNPC into the project as a minority

language. Following the release of the video on

shareholder. CNPC would require Pungarayacu's

YouTube, Ximah's owner, Juan Carlos Vรกscones,

oil for the new refinery to avoid ending up as a

acknowledged that his company had launched

white elephant. To drop the refinery would free

a "fan page" for El Patriota to capture interest

the government to shop around Pungarayacu to

even in the face of the Twitter accounts

additional major oil companies, with the proven

"unscrupulous

ability to develop the field, also pushing CNPC to

media reports, Ximah's client list, which now only

demonstrate that it may be the best choice. For

mentions the government, as well as a series of

the government, it would help it show foreign

private

investors a willingness to work hard at following

government offices, including the presidency

the trajectory it has undertaken in attracting

and vice presidency, police and interior ministry,

buyers in its return to international bond markets.

as well as a government-sponsored tourism

management."

customers,

has

According

included

to

many

campaign. This raised suspicion that the El Tweets and Trolls

Patriota account receives government funding as a so-called "troll center." Vรกscones has

Nobody advertises more on social micro-

refused to answer further media questions,

blogging service Twitter in Ecuador than the

attacking

administration, we have been told by a well-

"there's absolutely no reason for these journalistic

informed source. With newspapers' Web pages

inquiries." After the outcry on social networks,

and internet media platforms obliged by law to

marketing company IMS, the company that

force

personal

represents Twitter in Latin America, announced

information of commenters, including addresses,

that it would open an office in Ecuador;

under the media law whose constitutionality the

previously, it worked through Ximah.

commenters

to

disclose

Constitutional Court upheld this week, social networking

sites

have

concentrated

public

newspaper

Separately, public

late

relations

firm

El

Universo

filings

from

because

controversial

MCSquared

(based

in

debate in recent months. Mysterious accounts

Brooklyn and Quito) with the US government also

have emerged to blast opponents or individuals,

triggered social-network ire. The documents

including companies like Chevron.

showed that $500,000 of $1.9 million went to pay

Members of the public have long suspected

for visits of celebrities to an Amazon oil well with

that these might be receiving public money.

pollution the government blames on Chevron,

Proof of this emerged in a video revealed earlier

but where documents point to Petroecuador's

this month, showing that an Internet marketing

responsibility.

company called Ximah Digital had managed at

acknowledged that she was paid a speaker's

least

fee, but far less than the $180,391 claimed by

a

Facebook

site called

"El

Patriota."

US

actor

Mia

Farrow

MCSquared. This and the lack of accounting for another $4.5 million has raised further questions – and criticism – about the use of taxpayers' money.

The editorial board of Analytica Investment's Ecuador Weekly Report publishes information obtained from expert sources, public information and media reports, and documents. Anonymity of interviewed sources is protected.

Una producción de:

Una producción de HJ BECDACH. Presidente Ejecutivo: Hassan Becdach M. Dirección de arte, diseño y diagramación: Paulina Enríquez M. Publicidad y ventas: Elizabeth Lema - ferias@hjbecdach.com / 0998577288. Todos los artículos expuestos en la publicación tienen su respectiva fuente, así como las fotografías e infografías.

www.hjbecdachferias.com