Diario de aceite - mineral Nº 377 by Artes JOURNAL

Boletín 377 · 20 de Abril del 2017

Quito - Ecuador

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ÉXITO TOTAL EN LA INAUGURACIÓN DE LA “10º EXPO CONFERENCE EXPOMINAS 2017”

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03 de Marzo del 2017)

2,54(USD/lb)

1,285,30 (USD/onz)

18,45 (USD/onz

9,120(USD/lb)

1,8889,75(USD/TM 14,750 $ / Tonelada

ÉXITO TOTAL EN LA INAUGURACIÓN DE LA “10º EXPO CONFERENCE EXPOMINAS 2017”

iez ediciones consecutivas de EXPOMINAS nos ha convertido en el evento imprescindible del sector minero, cada año se ha organizado y trabajado junto al sector con el fin de integrar a los diferentes actores, buscando siempre una perspectiva que beneficie a todos los ecuatorianos, demostrando de esta manera, que la minería es el eje fundamental para el cambio de matriz productiva.

El evento abre un espacio de diálogo, entendimiento y comunicación a través de sus conferencias y exposiciones en donde se exponen los diferentes puntos de vista de las autoridades, de los empresarios, de la sociedad civil y las diferente comunidades involucradas. La 10º EXPO CONFERENCE EXPOMINAS 2017 se llevará acabo los días 19, 20 y 21 de abril de 2017 en el CENTRO DE EXPOSICIONES QUITO.

Minería GALERÍA “10º EXPO CONFERENCE EXPOMINAS 2017”

Presentado por:

Auspiciante PLATINUM

Auspiciante ORO

Auspiciante PLATA

Media Partner

Agencia Oficial:

Hotel Oficial

Con el respaldo de:

Expositores:

Minería GALERÍA “10º EXPO CONFERENCE EXPOMINAS 2017”

AN ALYTICA INVESTMENT S

Ramiro Crespo Chairman of the Editorial Board WEEKLYREPORT@ANALYTICAINVESTMENTS.COM

WWW.ANALYTICA.COM.EC

ECUADOR WEEKLY REPORT®

KEY INDICATORS

For the week of Apr 3 – Apr 7, 2017

Ecuador's Global Bond Prices

Pride and Protest Official results of the April 2 election show Lenin Moreno, candidate of the governing Alianza Pais (sic) gaining a slim victory over conservative Guillermo Lasso (CREO), winning by 51.14% to 48.86%, or 226,417 votes. Like in the first round of voting, on

Last Price Feb 110.18 111.82 100.41 108.65

Bond 7-Apr Mar Global 2020 105.91 106.65 Global 2022 106.14 106.66 Global 2024 92.93 94.57 Global 2026 100.63 103.92 Source: Bloomberg and Analytica

(end of the month) Jan Dec 109.52 107.89 112.25 108.81 99.07 95.92 105.96 102.50

Nov 105.54 104.94 92.15 N/A

Oct 106.13 106.11 94.55 N/A

EMBIG Spread (bp)

EMBIG Latin America

EMBIG Ecuador

1,600 1,400 1,200

600 400

fourth straight night, the government caved in and conceded that it would approve some form of recount, although with a confusing message that leaves room for improvement, interpretation, and, in the meantime,

Aug-16

8- Apr -17 Apr-17

streets in protest. When demonstrations reached their

Dec-16

200

thousands of Ecuadorians agreed, taking to the

Apr-16

refused to concede because of signs of fraud, and

800

Dec-15

under an even greater shadow of suspicion. Lasso

1,000

Aug-15

(CNE) days to proclaim him the winner, this time

Apr-15

February 19, it took the National Electoral Council

Source: JP Morgan and Analytica

Bond Yields vs. WTI in 2017 (%) 12

Global24

Global20

WTI (RHS)

($/b) 60

unnecessary uncertainty detrimental to the economy. Before the close of this edition, the CNE still hadn’t counted all the votes, thanks to ballots yet to be

Peru, for example, where Pedro Pablo Kuczynski won by only 50,000 votes last year. Numerous heads of state from the region congratulated him, including Kuczynski and embattled Nicolás Maduro, Ecuador’s

congress

whose

building

Apr-17

Mar-17

Feb-17

4000

Asunción after he had gotten senators to vote to allow him to stand for reelection, changing the constitution. The quick recognition came perhaps to avoid yet another crisis in the region (Brazil’s government isn’t

2000

Source: BCE and Analytica

31-Mar-17 Mar-17

the

Cartes,

6000

Sep-16

torched

Horacio

($m) 8000

Mar-16

constituents

Paraguay’s

International Reserves

Sep-15

and

Source: Bloomberg and Analytica

Mar-15

ally,

Jan-17

narrow but relatively clear victory, compared with

Dec-16

A total of more than 225,000 votes gives Moreno a

Nov-16

Oct-16

delivered from overseas, it says.

government

congratulate

first

compound in Quito surrounded by police, closing off

congratulated the people for going to vote (an

nearby streets and snarling traffic. Ironically, this

obligation in Ecuador), then Moreno, but adding a

helped

however: “we do note the concerns about the

demonstrators were able to block of three key Quito

electoral process and expect that they will be fully

intersections. In February, they had only cut off traffic

considered and resolved in a legal and transparent

in one section of Av. 6 de Diciembre. Now, traffic was

manner”. In its report, government web site El

interrupted to the north and south and partially limited

Ciudadano ommitted this little part of the statement.

in the case of the Guayasamín tunnel, the main artery

Similarly,

him,

but

Canada’s

very

weakly:

part,

its

ambassador

congratulated the people first and then the presidentelect, without naming him.

the

duly

had

protest’s

the

CNE

headquarters’

exactly popular, either). The U.S., meanwhile, did

impact

increase

since

connecting the center-north with the Cumbayá and Tumbaco suburbs and the airport. Elsewhere, protests were very large, particularly in

The U.S. statement lends support to the Lasso

Guayaquil. There, on April 3, protestors seized the

campaign a day after it presented the results of

large National Unity bridge from northern Guayaquil

CREO’s review of raw electoral data to the public to

to the suburb of Samborondón. People from both the

make its case for a recount. The results, presented by

city and the suburb converged on the bridge from

CREO president César Monge, revealed two key

both sides in an unheard of demonstration of

issues. First, Monge showcased 4.7%, geographically

strength. A day later, people marched from the CNE

referenced voting precincts in rural areas that had

compound to central Av. 9 de Octubre, forcing the

returns in which Moreno defeated Lasso by 8:1.

closure

These individual precincts that showed odd pockets

unprecedented event. As a result, the government

of morenismo were completely anomalous compared

blinked:

with others down to the very parish in which they

demonstrations were shrinking, it said that it would

were located - hence statistically improbable - and

agree to a recount, which some have already called

accounted for 276,469 votes, enough to swing the

the third round of the vote. Parts of the wording not

election. Additionally, he presented results from close

picked up in media reports show recognition of the

to 18,000 precinct reports that had numerous formal

risk that Moreno has of being considered an

errors, with a total of 592,000 votes, Monge said.

illegitimate president, but also vindictiveness against

the

April

Santa

Ana

amid

tunnel,

signs

another

that

the

Meanwhile, citizens didn’t take the matter lightly.

open society and, of course, private media. AP called

The CNE’s closeness to the government had already

for the recount “to demonstrate once and for all that

very much undermined its prestige, as did its

they lied to the country, betrayed the public faith,

complete blindness towards the obvious use of

generated violence and that they tried to seed chaos

government

and

government

media

notably

the

in our beloved Ecuador.” Later in the document, they

radio

and

said that the recount would prove Moreno’s victory

television networks, newspapers, and ministry web

but also permit them to sue Cedatos, television

sites to promote Moreno’s campaign. Days before the

broadcaster Ecuavisa, Canal1, “and other media that

election, Andrés Páez, Lasso’s running mate, had

proclaimed a false result” for “an attack on the public

called on people to congregate at CNE offices as they

faith.” They would also demand that Lasso apologize.

had after February 19’s first round, from which

AP thus wants to criminalize normal practice in

Moreno and Lasso emerged as the leaders pitted

journalism, surveys, and democracy for daring to

against each other in the second-round runoff. The

seek the legally permissible route of questioning

state

property,

conglomerate

electoral rights. One shouldn’t forget that, since 2014, the CNE worked with the controversial Constitutional Court to block referendum efforts to stop oil development in the Yasuní National Park and against the removal of term limits. Beyond calling for the recount, the message from AP is anything but clear. Defense minister Ricardo Patiño ridiculed CREO’s demand for a full recount of every vote; but after the first round of the election saw Moreno’s victory in the first round slip from his grasp, Correa himself had demanded a full recount. At the close of this edition, Cedatos was being searched by police; the warning could thus also be an outline for coming repression. If AP hoped to deflate the protest this way, it was wrong, as it grew. Once again, the demonstrations have been remarkably peaceful. Young protestors burned tires at the intersection of Av. Shyris and Av. Eloy Alfaro, and a few blocks away, the driver of a garbage truck was forced to dump his insalubrious load onto the street, which AP is hyper-dramatizing as evidence

massive

violence.

fact,

the

demonstrations, as has been the case for years now, have been almost devoid of violence, with minimal exceptions. Whether a recount will happen and under which conditions this may go ahead remains a mystery, as well as whether the strength of the demonstrators holds up. Next week is a holiday week, which imposes both tight legal deadlines on the ability to formally file for the recount, as well as possibly motivating people to take a break. But despite a steep uphill incline against Lasso, the last word may not have been spoken.

The editorial board of Analytica Investment's Ecuador Weekly Report publishes information obtained from expert sources, public information and media reports, and documents. Anonymity of interviewed sources is protected.