Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering Department of Mechanical Engineering Aristotle University Thessaloniki, Greece
ENERGY SUPPLY IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC DOWNTURN: A QUEST FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Agis M. Papadopoulos Professor Dr. – Ing. agis@eng.auth.gr
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Energy policy: A delicate and dynamic balance
Security of Energy Supply
Energy Policy
Competitive Energy Prices
Environment and Sustainability
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Energy Policy, Engineering and Energy Economics
Providing answers to a series of questions:
• • • • • • •
Which energy resource to use For which end use With what sort of energy conversion systems At which financial cost With what environmental consequences On what time scale for the effectuation of decisions At which political cost In other words: Long-term Energy Planning
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Energy investments: Treat them with care
Main characteristics of Energy Investments: 1. Capital intensive investments: Power generation plants are two to three times
more intensive than manufacturing industries. 2. Asset specific investments: They cannot be used for anything else than they are
planned. 3. Long life of the investment plan: A humble solar collector field lasts 15 years, a
gas-fired power plant 25, a hydro power plant 50 years. 4. Long lead times: A gas fired power plant needs 2-3 years, a nuclear plant 8-10
years. 5. Big size: Economies of scale lead to “Big is beautiful�.
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Energy investments: Treat them with care
Questions that have to be answered 1.
Whether the project will be undertaken by the public or private sector.
2.
The fiscal impact of the project.
3.
The return and equity of cost recovery.
4.
The environmental impact of the project.
5.
The political and geopolitical uncertainty factors
6.
The risk of technological obsolesce
7.
The societal attitudes
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The energy system of the 20th century
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The oil system 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Pumping (88 mn bbl/d oil, Nov. 2011) Transport with pipelines to harbors. Storage in harbors Transport by ship to oil-refineries Storage in oil-refineries Processing in oil-refineries (4.600 mn t, Nov.2011) Storage of final products Transport to wholesale-dealer Storage Transport to petrol stations Storage Retail selling to the final user
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The oil system
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The oil system: Political and geopolitical risks
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Power generation
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The natural gas system
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics The oil and the natural gas system: Political and geopolitical risks
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Renewable Energy Sources: Transmission on a big scale
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Renewable Energy Sources: Transmission on a regional scale
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Renewable Energy Sources: Transmission on a local scale
Windfarm Felixstowe, England E.ON (D), Dong Energy (DK) Masdar (Abu Dhabi)
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Renewable Energy Sources: Application on a local scale
SEPEDIC, Sustainable Energy Project for the Economic Development of Isolated Communities
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Energy systems, energy sources and logistics Renewable Energy Sources: On the smallest scale
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The application
Biomass fireplace: •
Efficiency 70%
Storage tank for hot water: •
9.000 lt
•
Used also for washing machines
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The application
PVs and accumulators: •
For residential use of up to one week
•
Small vehicles
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The application
The cost factor: 365.000 € 160 m2 2.280 € / m2 With basic interior equipment
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Sustainability The «Shots» by PACALA & SOCOLOW (2004) 14
850
7 «Shots» 1. Energy conservation 2. Change of fuels
Carbon emissions (Bn tonnes / year)
3. Carbon storage 4. Renewables 5. Nuclear power 380
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470
6. Forests’ management 7. CH4 management
Reaction
500 2
500 320
1950
2000
2050
2100 Source: L.Papagiannakis, 2006
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Security of energy supply: Energy dependency Denmark Poland United Kingdom Romania France EU27 Finland Germany Hungary Latvia Greece Austria Belgium Spain Portugal Italy Ireland Cyprus -40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
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Security of energy supply: Energy poverty
In the UK the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act 2000 stated that fuel poverty should be eradicated "as far as reasonably practicable" by 2016. Fuel poverty fell from 5.1 million households to 1.2 million households between 1996 and 2004. It has more than trebled since and the "fuel poverty gap“ increased by 50% to ÂŁ1.1bn as a result of rising fuel prices. Commissioned by the government, the Hills Fuel Poverty Review found that by the end of 2011, 4.1 million households are expected to be in fuel poverty. 2,700 people will perish this winter as a direct result of being fuel poor.
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Concluding remarks
• We need less and cleaner energy; there are limits to taxation as an energy policy tool. • Decisions made now will have a full impact by 2020. • Investments in energy systems are capital intensive ones, tying down precious funds for decades. • International energy trade has growing significance. • International and national infrastructure is getting more and more sophisticated. • Transport, transmission and storage is playing a crucial role in terms of time, space and versatility.
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Energy & Logistics
Working on a pipeline Taking from the greedy, giving to the needy Depeche Mode, Pipeline, 1983