Existing Conditions Assessment

ILLINOIS ROUTE 53/120 CORRIDOR LAND USE PLAN

EXISTING CONDITIONS ASSESSMENT SUMMARY REPORT September 17, 2014 Prepared for: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning, Illinois Tollway, and Lake County

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Map of Study Area Figure 2: Modes of Transportation Breakdown - 2012 Figure 3: County-level Workplace Flow Figure 4: Grid Comparison Figure 5: Change in AADT 2000 - 2013 Figure 6: Map of Percent Change in Mean Travel Time 2000 - 2010 Figure 7: Existing Transit Figure 8: Number of trains at the Prairie Crossing/Libertyville Stations (representative of rail service in the area) Figure 9: Metra Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings for Study Area Stations by Line Figure 10: Pace Average Weekday Ridership by Line Figure 11: Road Class in the Study Area Figure 12: Existing and Planned Trails Figure 13: Map of Proposed Roadway Modifications Figure 14: Composite Open Space and Natural Resources Figure 15: Pre-settlement Landscapes Figure 16: Natural Resource by Area and Percent in the Corridor Boundary Figure 17: Watershed based Planning Areas Figure 18: Dedicated Open Space by Area and Percent in Corridor Figure 19: Water Bodies and Their Impairments Figure 20: Biologically Significant Streams Figure 21: Area of Impermeable Surface Coverage in the Corridor Figure 22: Map of impermeable surfaces Figure 23: Natural Resources in a protected zone, figures in acres Figure 24: Natural Resources outside protected areas Figure 25: Environmental Protection Ordinances Figure 26: Compound Annual Growth Rate Figure 27: Lake County Population Figure 28: Lake County Employment Figure 29: Share of New County Development Captured in Corridor Figure 30: Historical Office Vacancy Rates Figure 31: Existing Lake County Office Development Figure 32: Historical Industrial Vacancy Rates Figure 33: Existing Lake County Industrial Development Figure 34: Historical Industrial Vacancy Rates Figure 35: Significant Existing Retail Centers Figure 36: Lake County Housing Starts Figure 37: Net Change in Lake County Housing Units, 2000 - 2010 Figure 38: Future Land Use Change Figure 39: Planned Development Estimates Figure 40: Usable Square Footage Per Office Employee Figure 41: Distribution Centers as a Percent of Total New Development (Chicago Region) Figure 42: Retail E-Commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Retail Sales Figure 43: Average Lot Size (acres) Figure 44: 2005 Land Use Area Figure 45: Planned Future Land Use Figure 46: Comparison of 2005 Land Uses with Planned Future Land Use Change Figure 47: Impact of Future Land Use Plans on Agricultural Land Figure 48: Potential for Infill to Reduce Demand on Agriculture and Open Space for Development Figure 49: Land Value Ratio Figure 50: Transit Supportive Density/Intensity per Zoning

6 12 12 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 18 19 21 25 27 28 28 29 31 31 33 34 37 38 39 42 42 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 54 55 55 58 59 60 61 62 63 65

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TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION

5

MOBILITY

11

OPEN SPACE & NATURAL RESOURCES

23

MARKET

41

LAND USE

57

CONCLUSION

67

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INTRODUCTION ASSESSING THE PRESENT, PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE Lake County’s accelerated population growth and development over the last several decades have created acute traffic congestion.

During this time, the extension of Route 53 and improvement of Route 120 have been debated by residents and stakeholders seeking to reduce congestion, limit environmental impacts, and preserve the character and livability of the area.

When the Blue Ribbon Advisory Council (BRAC) recommended a unique roadway designed to meet those goals, it also recognized that the roadway will bring secondary changes – new businesses, stores and homes; impacts on open spaces; and new ways to get around.

Without proper planning, the roadway could cause the fragmentation and loss of natural features, damage to community character, inefficient development of infrastructure and another increase in traffic. The BRAC therefore made creating a Corridor Land Use Plan and Implementation Strategy one of its key recommendations.

If planned for in a balanced and unified way, Route 53/120 has the potential to decrease traffic congestion, help improve access to jobs, education and health care, spur economic development, provide increased access for residents to transit, foster a better range of housing options, and enhance open spaces. In short, the roadway can help make this area a better place to live. These “livability” factors, found in the region’s award-winning GO TO 2040 comprehensive plan and in the Lake County Strategic Plan, are at the heart of the guiding principles contained in the Illinois Route 53/120 Project Blue Ribbon Advisory Council Resolution and Summary Report (2012). Based upon interviews with stakeholders, they are also on the minds of those who live and work in the Corridor.

Through the coordinated planning that the BRAC envisioned for this process, the 53/120 Corridor also has another unique opportunity— an opportunity for its numerous municipalities, agencies and stakeholders to work together to chart a new course of development for the future. Surrounding the new roadway with the same development patterns that have dominated so many suburban areas in the last half of the 20th century is a recipe for trouble, and will likely mean that the potential benefits of the new roadway will not be fully realized or sustained.

This Existing Conditions Assessment

The Existing Conditions Assessment is a necessary first step in developing the Corridor Plan. It is based on information drawn from hundreds of sources, including state, federal and local maps, ordinances and other records, past studies and reports, and over 100 interviews with municipalities, public agencies, environmental groups, planning specialists, businesses, social service agencies, developers and homeowners associations. It seeks to provide a deeper understanding of the current economic, environmental, transportation and land use contexts in the Corridor, to demonstrate the challenges and opportunities created by past development practices and changing conditions, and to serve as the foundation on which to build a strategy that can help ensure the best possible future for the people of central Lake County.

History of the Corridor Project

The Tollway has been studying the potential roadway since the early 1960s. In 2009, residents approved a non-binding referendum in favor of extending Illinois Route 53 north to Illinois Route 120. In 2010, the GO TO 2040 comprehensive plan included the project on its highest priority list, citing performance measures that show this roadway as “ranking highest among all projects in its effect on regionwide congestion.” In 2012, the BRAC recommended creation of the roadways as a 21st Century urban highway. This modern boulevard would have a smaller footprint to minimize potential negative impacts while protecting the natural environment and preserving the character of Lake County.

As recommended by the BRAC, tandem committees have been formed and are underway, working with the full support of Lake County. The Finance Committee is staffed by the Tollway and is examining how the roadway facility would be built and whether it is financially feasible. The Land Use Committee is staffed by CMAP and working to develop a corridor land use plan that will, in the words of the BRAC Report, “balance economic development, open space and community character goals across municipalities to encourage development of vibrant communities in central Lake County.

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Figure 1: Map of Study Area

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ILLINOIS ROUTE 53/120 CORRIDOR LAND USE PLAN

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ABOUT THE CORRIDOR LAND USE PLANNING PROCESS The Blue Ribbon Advisory Council recommended creation of a corridor plan that integrates land use, transportation, economic development, and open space. As the official planning agency for the seven counties of metropolitan Chicago, CMAP is uniquely qualified to lead the land use planning effort, whose Land Use Committee is co-chaired by Aaron Lawlor (Lake County Board Chairman) and George Ranney (Metropolis Strategies President and CEO), with membership drawn from the leaders of municipalities affected by the facility, the Lake County Board, the county’s economic development interests, and the environmental community. To a significant degree, the extent of collaboration between these stakeholders will determine how quickly the proposed project can become reality.

This effort will culminate in mid-2015 with a broad land use strategy for the entire Corridor (See Figure 1: Study Area), along with specific land use plans for approximately 12 areas that are anticipated to undergo significant change as a result of the facility. The committee will be asked to recommend endorsement of the land use plan

by Corridor municipalities and Lake County before making a recommendation to the Illinois Tollway Board of Directors on whether the Illinois Route 53/120 facility should proceed.

BRAC REQUIREMENTS The land use plan will consider a planning corridor within the area roughly bound by Lake Cook Road on the south, I-94 on the east, IL 12 on the west, and the Chain O’ Lakes on the north. The Blue Ribbon Advisory Council provided the following specific guidance for development of the land use plan: >> Utilize a market-driven approach to assess the feasibility of future land use change, including analysis of employment trends, potential commercial and industrial development, and the housing mix that is likely to occur if the proposed Route 53/120 is built. >> Balance economic development, open space, and community character goals across municipalities to encourage development of vibrant communities in central Lake County. >> Formulate a multi-jurisdictional economic development strategy to ensure the best possible economic future for central Lake County. Address planning for development desired by targeted industries as well as business attraction strategies. >> Provide strategies for communities to encourage mixed use, pedestrian-friendly and/or transit-supportive land uses where feasible in order to reduce congestion, air pollution, vehicle miles traveled, and GHG emissions. >> Design the land use and transportation system to facilitate walking and biking, transit, increase local connectivity, and manage the increased local road traffic that will likely follow completion of the road and associated new development. >> Develop an integrated open space system that not only includes the protection and restoration of conservation lands, but also meet residents’ and workers’ needs for recreation and open space in the corridor.

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PROCESS OVERVIEW The Corridor Land Use Plan process is envisioned as a two-year process, divided into five major components.

Outreach & Education

Outreach and education will occur through the project timeline to ensure an inclusive process that engages stakeholders at all levels.

For this portion of the project, the Consultant Team has met with the municipalities located within the Corridor as well as with specific agencies active in the Corridor. The Team has also conducted a series of stakeholder and focus group interviews to help identify critical issues and opportunities facing the Corridor. Further outreach includes a project specific interactive website, workshops held at key milestones in the process and the potential for “pop-up” meetings or educational sessions to address specific issues or opportunities.

Throughout the entire process, the Team will work closely with the Land Use Committee, made up of representatives from the Corridor municipalities and agencies, to solicit input and guidance.

Existing Conditions Assessment

The Consultant Team has assessed the existing conditions in the Corridor, using the BRAC’s work as well many other studies, reports, maps and interviews, to create a foundation of market, environment, land use and transportation information for use in the remainder of the process. The two products of this phase of the work are first, this Existing Conditions Assessment and second, a list of recommended “hot spots” -- locations that appear to have the highest potential for significant land use change -- and “cool spots” -- areas where environmental protection and enhancement should be focused. The intent of this list is not to recommend specific action on specific sites, but to suggest a list of approximately a dozen areas to receive more detailed analysis. The Land Use Committee will review this list of recommended areas and, based on the data as well as its own deep understanding of the Corridor, create a final list of “hot spots” and “cool spots.” This final list will be attached to this Existing Condition Assessment as an addendum.

Detailed Analyses

Following the development of the Existing Conditions Assessment, the Consultant Team will conduct further, more detailed analysis of the market, environment, land use and transportation. This work will include the preparation and testing of land use scenarios for the entire Corridor, as well as development concepts for the Corridor hot spots. The Team will begin to develop environmental enhancement concepts and strategies for cool spots, as well as strategies for land use and transportation.

Draft & Final Corridor Plan

The strategies and plans developed during the detailed analysis phase will inform the creation of a Corridor-wide land use and transportation plan and more detailed plans for the hot spots. The Plan will work to recommend new or modified policies, land use plans and development regulations. The Plan will be vetted with stakeholders as well as the Land Use Committee before it is finalized.

Plan Endorsement & Follow-up

The Final Plan will be presented and discussed with all of the Corridor municipalities. The goal will be to gain endorsement of the Plan by each of the communities.

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CORRIDOR CONTEXT The Corridor, a nearly 70,000 acre area, lies in the heart of Lake County. This size and central location gives the Corridor an important impact on the connections that run through the county (see Figure 2: Study Area Context), including roads, streams, watersheds, and wildlife migration routes. It also touches 20 municipalities and numerous forest preserves.

Central Lake County is proud of its rural, agrarian history and of its natural resources. In talking about quality of life and livability, stakeholders often bring up these features and access to the area’s outdoor recreation opportunities. They enjoy the sight of row crops along the side of the road (something one stakeholder called “borrowed open space” because such land is often not protected and may in fact be held for future development) and feel that despite increased development and traffic, they are still in a somewhat rural area.

Livability

Many key regional, County and Corridor specific documents touch upon factors that impact livability. At a regional scale, CMAP’s GO TO 2040 (2010) focuses recommendations into four categories, the first being Livable Communities. Lake County’s Strategic Plan (2013) is structured around a series of strategic goals, several of which touch on quality of life, and its Regional Framework Plan (2008) explicitly focuses on quality of life issues. Finally, the BRAC Report specifically identifies factors that affect livability in the Corridor, particularly in its six requirements for the Corridor Land Use Plan.

Through these documents run important and common themes: sustainable economic development, environmental protection, and transportation that fosters community. These themes were also voiced by stakeholders in many of our interviews.

As will be explored in the following chapters, existing land use analysis shows the Corridor is a surprisingly developed area—and one poised for substantial further development even without the new 53/120 roadway, due to projected population and traffic forecasts. In fact, population in Lake County grew 60% from 1980 to 2010, when it the reached 703,462, with particularly dramatic increases between 2000 study area is and 2010 in the south and west parts of the Corridor. As pointed out in the market section, the county is expected to add at least 268,000 more residents by 2040. Meanwhile, annual average daily traffic on several of the major roadways in the Corridor grew between 50% and 288% between 2000 and 2013.

Development pressure is increased by the municipalities’ future land use plans, which propose an enormous amount of low-density, autocentric development characteristic of the late 20th century. Even if all planned development does not occur (and the market analysis to follow suggests that it is unrealistic), such development pressure can threaten agriculture and open space in the Corridor and hinder the creation of more livable communities.

Municipalities are the key implementers of land use policies that support community goals. This Existing Condition Assessment will conclude with some analysis of and proposed modifications to municipal policies that can support livable communities through infill development and transit-supportive zoning.

69,740 acres

a quarter of the size of lake county

half the size of the city of chicago

23% 52% 301,200 acres

135,275 acres

10

11

MOBILITY

Mobility is the ability for people and goods to move about freely and easily. Within the study area, most people get around by using their own automobile. In recent decades, this has increased roadway congestion, negatively impacting the area’s quality of life and the economy. As commute times and distances have increased, people are spending more time in their cars, leaving less time for other activities. Similarly, rising congestion increases the delivery time and cost of goods for businesses and their customers.

Lake County has experienced a tremendous amount of growth as the Chicago region’s population has moved outward from the core to lower-density, auto-dependent areas. In parallel, employment centers have also spread throughout the region, making them less accessible by transit and more dependent on a few major roads for access. This has created a gap between where people live and where they work, reducing transit access, contributing to traffic congestion in the region, and increasing household costs related to transportation.

Moving around Lake County, particularly with respect to traffic congestion, is a quality of life issue that impacts those that live and work in the County. The extension of Illinois Route 53 will add a significant amount of capacity to the County’s roadway network, but there is no silver bullet for the issue of congestion. It must be addressed from all aspects, including improved transit, smarter land use patterns, transportation demand management strategies, as well as increased roadway capacity. This combination of approaches will allow the corridor to grow while maintaining the quality of life that makes Lake County so desirable.

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CURRENT COMMUTING BEHAVIOR People choose how they travel based on a number of factors, including time, cost, and convenience. Dispersed development patterns, low residential and employment densities and a poorly connected road network are all contributing factors to an environment in which people will choose to drive. This environment also hinders the type of high quality transit system that is attractive to people who would otherwise drive.

Driving is by far the dominant commuting mode in Lake County.

Residents of the study area drive at a rate that is 7% greater than the Chicagoland region, and took transit 9% less than the region, a reflection of the convenience of available transportation options (Figure 2). The average study area household drove 58 miles per day in 2011, the equivalent of traveling from Lake Forest to the Loop and back every day. That is ten miles more than the average household in the region.

Figure 2: Modes of Transportation Breakdown - 2012

Source: American Community Survey 2012, five-year estimates

Figure 3: County-level Workplace Flow

Source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, 2011

However, most County residents do not travel to the Loop. Half work within Lake County, primarily in manufacturing and retail. And while a quarter of County residents commute to Cook County, over 80,000 Cook County residents make the reverse trip (Figure 3). These intraand inter-county commutes rely most heavily on the arterial and highway networks – whether by driving alone, carpooling or taking the bus – taxing already strained infrastructure. Commuters on Metra reduce the burden on County roads, but those account for less than 4% of trips.

Lake County commuting patterns are a reflection of access to jobs in the region. Just over 7% of the region’s jobs are accessible within a 45-minute drive, compared with an average for the Chicago region of nearly 16%. Similarly, about 9.5% of the region’s jobs are accessible by transit within a 75-minute commute, compared with a regional average of almost 21%1. In order to improve access to regional jobs, the County will have to work to increase mobility by providing a range of viable and attractive transportation alternatives in addition to driving.

1 CMAP, weighted travel model for roadway and public transportation

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ROADWAY NETWORK & CONGESTION The road network is the backbone of the transportation system within the study area. The limited bus and rail options for commuters and freight require that the road network carry the vast majority of travelers, commuters and commerce in the area. As such, the roadway network and its congestion touch all aspects of life in the study area.

The roads within the study area are a network of branching arterials with minimal connections between development and sub-divisions.

This funnels the majority of traffic onto a few main roads, making travel times heavily dependent on the levels of congestion on these arterials. It also creates longer, more circuitous routes as compared with a more traditional grid network, like that in eastern Lake County (Figure 4).

The demand for these limited roadways has continued to rise as population has grown over the last fifteen years. Lake County’s population grew by 9.2% from 2000 to 2010, almost three times faster than the region as a whole (3.5%). Many of these new 60,000 residents live within the study area, whose municipalities, in some cases, have doubled or tripled in population. The municipalities to the west and south have experienced the greatest growth in population, spreading development to some of the most rural parts of the county.

Figure 4:  Grid Comparison

Source: SSE

The traditional suburban grid provides a fairly high level of connectivity, allowing for multiple routes and dispersing traffic volumes throughout the area. However, larger blocks disrupt the grid, creating barriers.

The contemporary suburban grid tends to limit connectivity by creating dead ends and extremely large blocks, reducing route options and increasing volumes on arterials.

Areas without a grid have very limited connectivity, creating a network that is comprised almost exclusively of neighborhood streets and arterials. All vehicles are funneled on to arterials, creating long, cicuitious routes that are very sensitive to congestion.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 14 A growing and spread out population has led to more cars on the road. Average annual daily traffic (AADT) has increased significantly throughout the study area since 2000. Major north-south routes that connect to employment centers in Cook County experienced growth that doubled, tripled, and nearly quadrupled volumes (Figure 5). The Tri-State Tollway and roads closer to the proposed alignment of IL-53 saw some of the greatest growth in traffic. East-west routes that lead Figure 5:  Change in AADT 2000 - 2013

toward employment centers within the County along Lake Michigan also saw double- and triple-digit growth. The impacts of the growth in traffic volumes are particularly acute within the study area because of the limited connectedness of the road network. Large volumes are funneled into the major collectors and arterials, causing delays, especially at major intersections and interchanges.

Source: Illinois Department of Transportation, http://gis.dot.illinois.gov/gist2/, accessed May 28, 2013

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 15 The increased demand on the road network and associated volumes have led to longer travel times for Lake County commuters. Travel times have more than doubled for the communities in the western and southern portions of the study area (Figure 6). These are the same communities that have seen high population growth, are farther from

Figure 6:  Map of Percent Change in Mean Travel Time 2000 - 2010

employment centers, and have no fixed transit service.

Furthermore, there is simply less road capacity and fewer network connections in the more rural parts of the county, further channeling rising car volumes into a limited amount of space.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 3, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2006-2010 Five-year estimates. Special Tabulation: Census Transportation Planning

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TRANSIT Public transportation in the study area is provided by Metra commuter rail and Pace suburban bus. Metra provides trips to Chicago and stops along the way, whereas Pace is more oriented for intra-county travel. In eastern Lake County, the Shuttle Bug program, Figure 7:  Existing Transit

Source: Pace Bus; Metra

run by the TMA of Lake-Cook, provides shuttle service connections between participating businesses and Metra stations.

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The study area is served by the Milwaukee District North (MD-N) and North Central Service (NCS) Metra lines. However, the schedule, frequency and geographic coverage of the trains limits their attractiveness as a mode of choice. On average, there are only one or two trains an hour during peak periods at the Prairie Crossing/ Libertyville station (Figure 8), which is served by both the MD-N and NCS lines. This is representative of service at the other Metra stations in the study area.

Figure 8: Number of trains at the Prairie Crossing/Libertyville Stations (representative of rail service in the area) Source: Metra train schedules

Prairie Crossing/ Libertyville

Inbound 6 - 10 AM

Outbound 4 - 8 PM

Weekend/ Holiday Service

MD - N

6

7

Yes

NCS

5

5

No

Metra service, which is oriented towards Chicago, is most useful to those who live near a station and work in Cook County. However, 50% of Lake County residents work within the county, meaning that Pace is better suited to serve these intra-county commuters.

The study area is served primarily by Pace routes 565, 570, 572 and 574, with more lines on the eastern edge of the study area towards Waukegan. The bus stops with the highest ridership are those next to high concentrations of low-wage jobs (such as Six Flags and Gurnee Mills Mall) and schools (College of Lake County Grayslake Campus).

Pace ridership, which has shadowed economic trends, has shown a marked increase in recent years (Figure 10).

Figure 10: Pace Average Weekday Ridership by Line

Source: RTAMS, http://www.rtams.org/rtams/ridershipDetail.jsp?dataset=paceBus; US Census

Metra ridership is further hampered by station areas that are accessible almost exclusively by private automobile. A number of stations lack safe, connected pedestrian access, and only the Round Lake station has a direct connection to Pace service.

Within the study area, Metra ridership has been increasing since the 1990’s, however data is only available up to 2006, before the recent recession. Based on discussions with Metra as part of this project, current ridership is on par with 2006 volumes; updated ridership numbers will be collected by Metra over the next year. Ridership at the stations within the study area on the M-DN increased 57% between 1991 and 2006, and 117% on N-CS from 1997-2006 (Figure 9). While these are significant gains, Metra’s ability to reduce congestion is limited, especially as development spreads farther west from the stations.

Figure 9: Metra Average Weekday Boardings and Alightings for Study Area Stations by Line Source: RTAMS, http://www.rtams.org/rtams/metraHistoricalRidership.jsp; US Census

Similar to other suburban bus services, Pace faces the dual challenges of a dispersed ridership and a road network that is reliant on heavily used arterials with few connects between developments.

As long as cars are stuck in traffic, so will the buses, unless they are provided with their own dedicated right-of-way.

While transit ridership has been on the rise in the study area, it has not been enough to relieve the increase in traffic volumes. There are major gaps in the transit that serves the study area, especially west of the proposed alignment, which has no fixed route service. Transit ridership will likely increase as population and employment increases, so it is critical that future transit service accurately reflects where people who ride the bus (or might ride the bus) live and work. There are many challenges that must be addressed, from improving existing infrastructure to land use planning, in order for transit to become a more attractive option to the people who live and work in the area.

Note: The most recent ridership data available for Metra is 2006, before the recent recession.

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TRAILS & COMPLETE STREETS The County has almost 500 miles of bikeways, including 130 miles of trails managed by the Forest Preserve District (LCFPD) and over 50 miles managed by LCDOT. Of that, there are approximately 170 miles of trails within the study area. Many of these are local trails in neighborhoods and parks that are mainly intended for recreational use and do not connect to other trails or uses (Figure 12). This lack of connectedness mirrors that of the roadway network and limits people’s ability to travel by walking and biking. Currently, only about 7 miles of on-road bicycle facilities, which are better suited for commuting, exist in Lake County. While there are dozens of miles of bikeways planned for the area, currently there are major gaps between municipalities, especially in the western and southern portions of the study area. When the planned trails are built out, the study area will eventually connect to the system of regional trails, including the Des Planes River Trail and the Skokie Valley Bike Path, among others.

The State and the County control about a fifth of the roads in the study area. This is significant because the State passed complete streets legislation in 2007, which requires bicycle and pedestrian facilities to receive full consideration in the planning and development of state transportation facilities. The Lake County Division of Transportation adopted its own complete streets policy in 2010, called the Policy on Infrastructure Guidelines for Non-Motorized Travel Investments (“Non-Motorized Travel Policy”). The policy mandates County roadway improvements “to provide appropriate accommodation for vehicles, pedestrians, bicyclists, transit users, and persons of all abilities.” The consideration of walking and biking infrastructure in future road improvement and construction projects could help to improve non-motorized connections within the County and make alternatives to driving more attractive.

Figure 11: Road Class in the Study Area Source: SSE based on GIS data from Lake County

Road Class

Miles

Percent

Local Road

714

75%

County Highway

86

9%

State Highway

100

10%

US Highway / Interstate

55

6%

While the State and County have adopted complete streets policies, local municipalities control about three-quarters of the roads in the study area. This means that they have significant influence on the design, implementation, and maintenance of local roads and streets. Encouraging local municipalities to follow the State or County’s policies, or to adopt their own, will further help to create nonmotorized connections.

An expanded network of safe and convenient trails will provide new recreational and commuting choices for residents of Lake County.

New on-road facilities can create direct links to jobs, shopping and schools, reducing the need for short, local trips by car. Bicycle facilities that connect to transit stops and stations provide an alternative for the problem of the last-mile, making transit more attractive while reducing pressure on nearby roads and parking.

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Figure 12:  Existing and Planned Trails Source: Lake County Department of Transportation

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PROPOSED ROADWAY MODIFICATIONS Roadway widening and interchange/intersection improvements are proposed for many of the main roads in the study area (Figure 13).

These changes will increase roadway capacity, and in some cases make new connections in the road network. These improvements, including the extension of Illinois 53, will help to alleviate congestion and reduce travel times in the near term. However, as new peak capacity becomes available, people who would have commuted on alternate routes, at different times, or on other modes will be drawn to the faster, more convenient option, causing congestion anew in

short order. New roads and more lane miles will also encourage new development, which if built in current patterns, will help to exacerbate many of the existing problems with the arterial dependent road network. It is critical that Lake County and its municipalities recognize and address these issues before planning and building new roadway capacity. While growth is desirable, without careful planning, Lake County will continue to face many of the same traffic and mobility challenges that it does today.

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Figure 13:  Map of Proposed Roadway Modifications Source: Lake County Transportation Plan, 2013

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KEY MOBILITY FINDINGS >> Central Lake County faces many transportation and mobility challenges as it continues its transition from a mostly rural community to a suburban one. The transportation network provides few alternatives to the congested roadways, which are the cause of long commute times and increasing travel costs. >> Transit ridership has been on the rise, but its attractiveness as an alternative to driving is limited by infrequent service and a narrow geographic range. These factors have contributed to a high driving mode share as commuters travel farther and farther to reach employment centers. >> Walking and biking have not been a significant mode of choice, but this could change as new trails are built and new development better accommodates non-motorized transportation. >> There is no one solution to the area’s mobility challenges.

Planning land use and transportation jointly will help support a more robust transportation network with improved capacity and viable, attractive alternatives to driving.

Moving forward, this will go a long way in helping Lake County grow while maintaining the quality of life its residents enjoy.

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OPEN SPACE & NATURAL RESOURCES

Lake County is blessed with an abundance of open space and natural resources, most of which abuts and overlaps one another to create an intricate web of connections for people, flora, and fauna. Within this Corridor, open space and natural resources cover 40,594 acres or 53.2% of the entire Corridorencompassing miles of lakes, rivers, and streams, hundreds upon hundreds of acres of highly prized open space and parks, land that produces locally fresh food, and culturally rich agricultural landscapes- all of which provide a quality of life valued by residents and visitors alike.

Unfortunately, many of these resources are being impaired and even lost to current land uses. Woodlands, prairies, and wetlands have been fragmented into small isolated pockets.

Lakes, rivers, and streams no longer support a diversity of fish, mussels, and plants once prevalent. Agricultural landscapes are being transformed into residential and commercial developments, ending a cultural bucolic aesthetic.

This environmental analysis discusses the natural resources in the Corridor and the challenges they face if conventional development patterns continue in this part of Lake County.

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Natural communities and the species within them are the basis of the region’s environmental health. They provide ecological services that help maintain water quality, abate the impact of floods, support pollination of crops, and control outbreaks of pests. Biodiversity also contributes immeasurably to the quality of life the citizens of the region enjoy and to the region’s long-term economic vitality by drawing visitors that enjoy miles of trials, access to open water, and thousands of acres of open space.

Within this Corridor is an equally varied landscape comprised of rich environmental resources - prairies, woodlands, lakes, wetlands, parks, and open space. When these features abut and overlap one another an intricate web of life is created that connects the flora and fauna so unique to Lake County. There is also a rich cultural heritage seen in the agricultural fields and historic farm buildings scattered throughout the area. Together, all of these items are intricately woven into a web of life, one that is well connected and reliant on each natural resource.

But this web of life does not live in a vacuum, it shares resources with a vast array of people and development types, all of whom make decisions that affect the environment in this corridor, and beyond. As noted in Lake County’s Regional Framework Plan Environmental resources and open space were among the most frequent topics sited by participants at the Regional Framework Plan Public Forums. “Green space” was identified as the third most important quality of life factor (after “quality schools” and “less traffic congestion”) in the Lake County Resident Transportation Survey (Lake County Department of Communications, 2000).

Figure 14 depicts an environmental inventory that includes Open Space and Natural Resources within the Corridor. As you see, the map portrays a compelling image of the total resources in this Corridor. Many of the resources and open spaces overlap one another, where this happens they have been shown as one Natural Resources Composite; they also carry across the Corridor and continue for miles, such as the Des Plaines River Trail.

Yet, there is overwhelming evidence that development patterns within the Corridor are diminishing and degrading these natural resources and the services Lake County derives from them.

Understanding the location of these resources will be needed to protect them from direct and in-direct impacts. This will, in turn, help prevent severe environmental problems that may be difficult or costly to correct in the future. Maintenance of these natural features is also important for community appearance and the functions they perform. Adjusting and rewriting ordinances to support and mandate green infrastructure and open space enhancement is important, it can steer future land development patterns and help inform future acquisition and preservation strategies to improve open space and existing environmental resources. And, they will ensure that the natural resources continue to function to their fullest potential for future generations.

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Figure 14:  Composite Open Space and Natural Resources

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2, David Holman, Lake County SMC, USDA/NRC, ACOE (web search), Lake County Forest Preserve District

COMPOSITE INCLUDES: Adid Wetlands Lake County Wetlands Floodplains Hydric Soils Threatened & Endangered Species Boundaries Forest Preserves, Park Easements & Open Space Mitigation Wetland Important Bird Areas of Illinois Core Prairie, Savanna & Grassland Habitat Forest Habitat

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PRE-SETTLEMENT LANDSCAPES The places we live and work all were wilderness at one time. Today, nature preserves often protect and restore areas intended to represent the landscape as it was before large scale agriculture began the sequence of alterations that have brought us to the present day. A number of studies have produced maps showing, in some detail, what the counties of northeast Illinois looked like 200 years ago. Public Land Survey records are an important source of information on the character of the vegetation in Illinois prior to European Settlement. These records have been used to reconstruct pre-European settlement (or native) vegetation, in Illinois, Anderson (1970) used land survey records to map the location of prairies and forests in the state in the early 1800’s. Other studies include those by Kilburn (1959), who used land survey records to map the prairie-forest border in Northeastern Illinois, and Moran (1978), who described the pre-settlement vegetation of Lake County, using land survey records made from 1837 to 1840.

Figure 15 depicts a landscape that was once dominated by forest and prairie with intermittent water and water-based landscapes across the Corridor. Typically, a consistent landscape gradient was comprised of prairie in the most fire prone habitats with forest and fire-sensitive trees occurring in fire protected habitat along water corridors; savanna occurred in intermediate habitats as a transition zone between the prairie and forest.

Due to the loss of pre-settlement habitats in the Corridor, it is extremely important to identify and protect what some consider as “remnant landscapes� - sites where both the topography and plant communities are largely intact and are similar to the forest preserve holdings at Rollins Savanna and Middlefork Savanna. Since most of the Corridor has been altered throughout the decades by development, the presence of original unaltered topography is worth noting. It is also worth noting that most if not all of the savanna landscape is missing from the Corridor. Since the basis of this ecosystem is century old oaks, it should be a priority to protect them at all cost.

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Figure 15:  Pre-settlement Landscapes Source: Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2.

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EXISTING LANDSCAPES Throughout this Corridor, there are significant landscapes and natural resources (Figure 16). Many of these resources – open space, parks, woodlands, prairies, wetlands, and open water, are easily discernible to people and often receive the greatest amount of attention. They are also great assets for recreational venues. Others – floodplains and hydric soils, are not as easily discernible and as such do not receive as much or the appropriate attention. Luckily, many of the floodplains and hydric soils overlap with open space, wetlands and woodlands, and as such receive indirect attention by supporting these resources. The inventory that follows is based on existing data sources that have been provided by local, state, and federal agencies.

Figure 16: Natural Resource by Area and Percent in the Corridor Boundary

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2, David Holman, Lake County SMC, USDA/NRC, ACOE (web search), Lake County Forest Preserve District

chance to infiltrate into the ground feeding local waterways with clean cool water that is a resource for flora and fauna. When moved through a pipe, rain is divested of its chance to move slowly through the environment and too often carries pollutants harmful to receiving water bodies.

To help understand the implications of improper water management, watershed-level planning groups have been instrumental in developing plans that show what can be accomplished through collaboration and positive water management. These efforts are typically at the grass roots level but can expand to be powerful proponents for the municipalities they cover. Beginning in 2004 when the first watershed based plan was adopted for Squaw Creek, continued efforts have helped develop Watershed Management Plans that cover the entire Corridor, many of which have been adopted

by Lake County Stormwater Management Commission (SMC) and the County Board (Figure 17). What is important and needs more attention is that watershed-level planning considers protecting land and water resources beyond jurisdictional boundaries in order to reduce negative impacts of land development such as flood damage, soil erosion, habitat loss, and water pollution. As growth in the corridor continues, which inevitably it will, there needs to be protection in place that helps manage rain water. Watershed-based planning and the groups that contribute to their development need to inform the planning process and how land use changes will affect the natural hydrologic system of streams, lakes, and wetlands and the high quality habitats and environmental resources they connect.

Figure 17: Watershed based Planning Areas

Sources: Lake County SMC.

Watersheds

In Lake County, the four major watersheds are the Lake Michigan Watershed, the North Branch of the Chicago River Watershed, the Des Plaines River Watershed, and the Fox River Watershed. These watersheds are divided into 26 smaller areas known as subwatersheds. Within this Corridor there are 11 sub-watersheds. Each sub-watershed is a unique geographical area that is typically defined by topography, which in turn tells us where rain will travel to enter local water bodies – lakes, rivers, and streams. Sometimes this water moves west to east or south to north, counterintuitive to what most people would think. In times past, water moved naturally through the watershed, today it is often forced to move through a labyrinth of pipes below ground. When it moves naturally, it is afforded the

* Watershed Plan is in process of being adopted by SMC ** No information available

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Dedicated Open Space

The Corridor currently contains 25,753 acres of dedicated open space or 33.7% of the 76,337 acres within the Corridor (Figure 18). Open space is any public or private land, park, or natural area dedicated, deeded, or held in easements as open space. All of these lands contain important natural communities or else serve as buffers, protecting and supporting the natural areas. The highest level of protection is provided by the Illinois Nature Preserves Commission to parcels dedicated as Illinois Nature Preserves. Lands in this program can only be sold with the consent of the governor. Parcels owned by park districts, forest preserve districts, the Libertyville Township Open Space District, and land trusts also have substantial protection, since these organizations have the preservation of open space as their central mission.

Of significance are the 11,093 acres of combined land dedicated to Lake County Forest Preserve District (LCFPD), Illinois Nature Preserves Commission (INPC), and Illinois Natural Areas Inventory (INAI) or 43.07% of all the dedicated open space in the corridor.

These areas often contain exceptional or unique environmental resources, in particular, threatened and endangered (T&E) species.

Figure 18: Dedicated Open Space by Area and Percent in Corridor

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2, David Holman, Lake County SMC, USDA/NRC, ACOE (web search), Lake County Forest Preserve District

Also important are the small parks that serve recreational needs for neighborhoods such as Tooterville Park in Grayslake, Leo Leathers Park in Mundelein, and Old Mill Grove Park in Lake Zurich. Coupled with the larger regional parks and preserves noted above, this collection of land creates an interconnected system of open space, or green infrastructure that supports surrounding community’s while preserving natural resources and assets that provide innumerable benefits to residents.

Woodlands/Forest

For this study, woodlands / forests are defined as areas greater than 50% tree canopy cover, which includes upland forest and floodplain forest, flatwoods, and woodlands (50-80% canopy cover) (Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.1). There were no savannas identified within the corridor so they are not included in this analysis.

Tracts of woodland/forest area were recorded in two size ranges – less than 50 acres in size and greater than 50 acres in size. What was found is that tracts less than 50 acres in size cover 5,237 acres or 6.9% of the entire corridor while tracts greater than 50 acres cover 2,820 acres or 3.7% of the entire corridor. Within all data sets, tracts ranged from less than one acre to over 400 acres.

The woodlands occur fairly uniformly across the corridor with the highest concentrations of larger tracts in Almond Marsh Forest Preserve, along the Des Plaines River Trail, around St. Mary’s Lake, and near the southern end of the corridor adjacent to Royal Melbourne Country Club, Twin Orchard Country Club, and Hill Crest Country Club. We know there are tracts of woodlands in Rollins Savanna but they have not been mapped into data sets and thus are not included in this analysis.

Based on driving surveys of the corridor and knowledge of the area, the larger trees in these woodland tracts are oaks (Quercus spp.) with other trees being cherry (Prunus spp.), maple (Acer spp.), elm (Ulmus spp.), and ash (Fraxinus spp). In all tracts it was also noted that invasives such as European buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica) and honeysuckle (Lonicera spp.) are present and are having a negative impact on the native flora by shading it out. In the tracts less than 50 acres in size, this can be even more damaging to the ecosystem.

The value of these woodland tracts can be seen in innumerable ways.

They provide structure, food, and habitat for migratory birds, including Neotropical migrants and short distance (temperate) migrants. The trees also absorb airborne particles, clean the air, provide shade, support passive recreation, and provide scenic beauty.

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Prairie

For this study, prairie and grassland were included together and are defined as a composition of grasses, herbs, and shrubs, rather than trees, as the dominant vegetation type.

Tracts of prairie identified cover 4,026 acres or 5.3% of the entire Corridor. This number again does not include Rollins Savanna, which is only included in the Open Space calculations since it does not have independent figures for on-site prairie.

The majority of prairie tracts identified occur north of Route 60, south of Route 120, and west of Alleghany Road. The next largest set of tracts occurs in Almond Marsh Forest Preserve while small fragments occur in isolated areas throughout the Corridor.

It has been said that one-tenth of one percent of the prairies of Illinois remain today. This major loss is due primarily to conversion to rowcrop agriculture. Today, woody plant expansion has been seen as one of the greatest contemporary threats to mesic grasslands (Briggs et al. 2005), which is why it is so important to recognize and preserve these ecosystems.

Numerous studies have shown that prairie provides invaluable wildlife habitat and food sources for birds, mammals, reptiles, and insects.

In fact, every plant in a prairie is pollinated by an insect, which is why they teem with incredible amounts of flying, crawling, and buzzing insects. It has also been shown that prairies sequester and retain large amounts of soil carbon (C) (Amthor et al. 1998), and thus are an important component of the global C cycle (Schimel et al. 1994). As there are so few land areas with prairie on them, all remaining tracts should be protected and improved where possible.

Wetlands

For this study, all wetlands have been included together despite the variety of wetland types in the area – fens, sedge meadows, pannes, seeps, and bogs. Typically, wetlands are inundated or saturated by surface or groundwater at a frequency and duration sufficient to support hydrophytic vegetation, which is adapted for life in saturated soil.

Within the Corridor there are a total of 17,028 acres of wetlands or 22.4% of the entire corridor. This amount falls within three wetland categories - The Lake County Wetland Inventory, 13,216 acres or 17.3% of the corridor, ADID wetlands – 3,317 acres or 4.3% of the corridor, and wetland banks – 495 acres or 0.6% of the corridor.

Whether natural or man-made, wetlands provide habitat for fish and wildlife and store and filter pollution from stormwater run-off, thereby reducing flooding and protecting water quality.

The first category, The Lake County Wetland Inventory (LCWI), is maintained by the Lake County Department of Management Services, GIS Division and includes a range of mapped wetland and non-wetland categories, including artificial and farmed

wetlands and urban converted wetlands. The second, ADID (Advanced Identification Study) wetlands, are identified by The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as certain wetlands within Lake County and have exceptional functional values. The third, wetland banks, are wetlands, streams, or other aquatic resource areas that have been restored, established, enhanced, or (in certain circumstances) preserved for the purpose of providing compensation for unavoidable impacts to aquatic resources permitted under Section 404 or a similar state or local wetland regulation. These wetlands in particular are extremely important to protect since they have been installed for regulatory purposes and are replacing wetlands that have been filled due to some level of development in the area.

Surface Water

Lakes, ponds, rivers, and streams are important as a functional asset to store and convey water from rainfall and snowmelt. They also serve as habitats for plants, aquatic life, and animals, while providing many passive and active recreational activities and scenic beauty.

The Chain-O-Lakes, in the northwest portion of the County, contain a concentration of lakes that attract tourist revenues to Lake County.

Within the Corridor lakes and ponds ranged in size from less than one acre to over 200 acres. Some of the larger lakes in the corridor include Third Lake (162 acres), Countryside Lake (142 acres), Round Lake (228 acres), Gages Lake (139 acres), St. Mary’s Lake (105 acres), and Diamond Lake (154 acres). When combined, all lakes and ponds cover 3,797 acres or 5% of the corridor. Of those, 1,805 are less than six acres in size covering 1,114 acres or 1.5% of the corridor while 87 are equal to or greater than six acres covering 2,683 acres or 3.5% of the Corridor.

The major rivers flowing through Lake County include the Fox River, the North Branch of the Chicago River, and the Des Plaines River, which flows through the corridor. Streams and rivers in the corridor ranged in length and width so were aggregated into two size ranges, less than five foot width and greater than five foot width. Those being less than five foot in width cover 74 acres or 0.097% of the corridor; those being equal to or greater than five foot width cover 216 acres or 0.283% of the corridor.

When all surface water is combined (lakes, ponds, rivers, streams), there are 4,087 acres of surface water in the corridor, or 5.4% of the Corridor. Unfortunately, of the 4,087 acres 2,254 acres, or 55% of the lakes, ponds, rivers, and streams are deemed ‘impaired’ by the USEPA and have been listed on the 303(d) list of impairment (Figure 19). The term “303(d) list” is short for the list of impaired and threatened waters (stream/river segments, lakes) that the Clean Water Act considers polluted. The federal Clean Water Act, adopted in 1972, requires that all states restore these waters to be “fishable and swimmable” within 8 to 13 years from first listing the water body.

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Figure 19: Water Bodies and Their Impairments Source: USEPA website for 303(d) listed impaired waterways

Streams in the corridor have also been rated for their quality using the Illinois Natural History Survey’s (INHS) Biologically Significant Streams (BSS) system that incorporates data on fish, mussel communities, and rare species (endangered, threatened, watch list) of crustaceans, fish, mussels, and aquatic plants in addition to stream segments ratings (A, B, C, D, E) by the initial Biological Stream Characterization (BSC) Work Group from 1984 (Page et al. 1992). Using the BSS system, it was found that Lake County has no Class A, Unique Aquatic Resources stream segments. It does have 33.6 miles of Class B, High Value Aquatic Resource streams, 51.7 miles of Class C, Moderate Aquatic Resource streams, and 74.3 miles of Class D, Limited Aquatic Resource streams.

Waterbody Name and Segment

Impaired Uses

Causes

Grays Lake, IL_RGK

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous

Round Lake, ILRTF _RTH

Cause unknown

Cause Unknown

Diamond Lake, ILRTF _RTH

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Fish Lake, IL_VTK

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Squaw Creek at Long Lake

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Hidden Lake, IL_WGZR

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Diamond Lake, ILGU02 _RGB

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Countryside Lake, IL_RGQ

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Indian Creek, ILGU02 _GU 02

Aesthetic Quality

Nutrients, Endrin, Methoxychlor, Nitrogen

Sylvan Lake, IL_RGZF

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids and Fecal Coliform

Pond-A-Rudy, IL_UGP

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Bresen Lake, IL_UGN

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Forest Lake, IL_RGZG

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Salem-Reed Lake, IL_WGK

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Lake Naomi, IL_UGM

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

DesPlaines River, ILG30_G26

"Fish Consumption, Aesthetic Quality

Mercury, PCBs

Valley Lake, IL_RGZM

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous

Source: USEPA

Butler Lake, IL_RGJ

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous

Waterbody

Liberty Lake, IL_RGT

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

In 2006, the IDNR initiated an effort to combine and update the BSS stream rating into a single rating system. The purpose behind the project was not only to update outdated information, which was 15 years old, but to create a rating system that would help resource manger’s in implementing the aquatic goals of the Illinois Wildlife Action Plan (State of Illinois 2005). This new rating system classified streams into two categories: >> Diversity - the number of different kinds of things (Angermeier and Karr 1994) or the variety of life and its processes (Hughes and Noss 1992). >> Integrity - a system’s wholeness (Angermeier and Karr 1994) and the ability of a system to support organisms and processes comparable to natural habitat of the region (Hughes and Noss 1992).

Following this system, there are 13.56 miles of streams with Diversity ratings and 11.82 miles of streams with Integrity ratings (Figure 20) in the Corridor.

Based on the fact that most of the streams studied have ratings starting with C, steps need to be taken to protect Lake County’s vast water resources from impairments. In most cases, these impairments are caused by agricultural and urban runoff, industrial waste, and sewage overflows.

Figure 20: Biologically Significant Streams Segment length (ft)

Integrity Class Rating

Diversity Class Rating

Bull Creek

102.33

E

E

3148.66

D

C

St. Marys Lake, IL_UGF

Aesthetic Quality

Phosphorous and Total Suspended Solids

Des Plaines River Des Plaines River

3493.48

D

D

Druce Lake

Fish Consumption, Aesthetic Quality

Fecal Coliform

Squaw Creek

3755.79

A

C

West Branch of Bull Creek

4960.93

E

E

Middle Fork North Brach Chicago River

Fish Consumption, Aesthetic Quality

Sedimentation, Siltation, Fecal Coliform

Bull Creek

5394.65

C

C

West Branch of Bull Creek

9200.82

--

D

Middle Fork North Brach Chicago River

Fish Consumption, Aesthetic Quality

Sedimentation, Siltation, Fecal Coliform

Indian Creek

11994.26

E

E

Indian Creek

29565.51

D

D

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Hydric Soils

Hydric soils are not one of those natural resources that receive a lot of attention or draw visitors to sit next to them. However, they are important assets in the corridor, especially when they retain water and support rich biological communities. Hydric soils are formed under conditions of saturation, flooding, or ponding long enough during the growing season to develop anaerobic conditions in the upper portion, which is why they are most often associated with surface water and wetlands. They have poor drainage, complicating the construction of basements, roads, and septic fields. As identified in the Soil Survey Lake County, Illinois (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1970), hydric soils cover an area of 90,145 acres within the County. Of this area, approximately 22,648 acres have been developed, based on the 2000 Land Use Inventory, and an additional 16,436 acres are located under surface water bodies. Thus, there are approximately 51,061 acres of remaining hydric soils in Lake County.

Within the Corridor hydric soils are distributed fairly uniformly across the entire area. There are 18,318 total acres or 24% of the Corridor.

In other words, this is 36% of all remaining hydric soils in Lake County.

Due to this amount and realities of development, it’s not feasible to think they could all be saved from development pressures. But, they should be looked at when in proximity to other water resources so that these areas are protected in order to support water quality hydrophytic flora associated with streams, rivers, and lakes. They also offer opportunities for wetland restoration and/or wetland bank development since they provide a main ingredient for success – saturated soils during the growing season.

Floodplains

Floodplains are another one of those natural resources that are not readily acknowledged or recognized by residents of Lake County. One reason may be that too often they are lost to development and are not allowed to remain in place. Yet, when there is too much rain, they are invaluable, allowing floodwater to slow down, sediments to settle out, and helping to maintain water quality. When portions of floodplains are restored to their natural state and work in conjunction with adjacent waters they can help form complex, dynamic physical and biological systems found nowhere else in the Corridor.

In the Corridor there are 10,172 acres of floodplain or 13.3% of the Corridor. Similar to hydric soils, floodplains occur fairly uniformly across the Corridor. However, unlike hydric soils, floodplains are more important for flood control and should be protected and preserved when possible.

Agriculture

Farming is a part of the local heritage of Lake County. It is also a way of life for some residents in the Corridor. For many the agricultural landscape represents an aesthetic appeal, along with the iconic farm buildings that dot their landscapes. The seasonal changes of growing crops, the colors and textures of farm fields, and architecturally and culturally significant farm buildings all contribute to a rural character known in the Corridor.

In 2001, the Lake County Board identified farmland protection as a high priority target issue. The County retained the services of the American Farmland Trust (AFT) to assist with development of an analysis that was reported within the Regional Framework Plan. The data and policy analysis they created is largely derived from a report entitled, On Thin Soil: The Uncertain Future of Agriculture in Lake County (AFT, 2001). AFT concluded that saving farmland in Lake County will be a challenge, but it is possible. The report contains policy options and possibilities for protecting farmland as a resource (AFT,2001:15-22) and farming as an economic activity and way of life (AFT, 2001:22-27).

In discussions with Liberty Prairie Reserve and LCFPD, both felt that preservation of an agricultural component in the Corridor would add value to historic and cultural resources, aesthetic resources, components of the local economy, or simply to preserve high quality, productive soils. It was also noted that local food production is a regional priority and can be a viable economic model. Small agricultural operations, on 25 acres +/-, may not be viable for commodity row crops but can be viable as organic or local food/ farmstead sources. Prairie Crossing Farm and Casey Farm are good examples of this type of food production model.

For this study, agricultural land does not include sod farms, nurseries, or a business that is on land zoned agriculture. It is based on arable land that is currently under agricultural production (Figure 16). Within the corridor there are 7,396 acres of agricultural land or 9.7% of the corridor. Consideration for a high level of protection should be given to parcels that are in unincorporated areas since they may be seen as opportunities for annexation and subdivision into development lots.

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Impermeable Surfaces

Within the corridor, there are varying degrees of impermeable surfaces that include roof tops, parking lots, roads, sidewalks, and even bike trails (Figure 22). Due to the type of data collected that represents this information, it is not a simple calculation to separate permeable from non-permeable since many of the impermeable surfaces are covered with vegetation, covering and ‘hiding’ it from satellite imagery. To help quantify the amount of surface area, it has been estimated as a percent of cover per acre (Figure 21).

Within the Corridor’s 76,337 total acres, 36,073 acres contain impermeable surfaces that range between 0 and 10% of each acre, this is almost half (47.26%) of the entire Corridor. Another 39.52% of the Corridor contains acreage ranging between 11 and 50% impermeable within each acre. This is important when compared to research that shows impervious surfaces approaching 10% of an acre has a negative impact on ecosystems. A study entitled Impacts of new highways and subsequent landscape urbanization on stream habitat and biota, 2005, in Fisheries Science 13:141-164 revealed that landscape urbanization with even low levels (< 10%) of watershed urban development is the greatest threat to stream habitat and biota. There are also numerous studies by the USEPA, IDNR, and private consulting firms extolling the negative impacts from urban runoff through increased nutrients, toxins, heavy metals, pesticides, and other chemicals found in urban runoff with such long names that we commonly refer to them by their initials.

But the negative impacts from impermeable surfaces affect more than water quality, it causes: >> >> >> >>

Urban heat island Habitat fragmentation Flooding Fauna mortality

These items are discussed in more detail in the following section.

Figure 21: Area of Impermeable Surface Coverage in the Corridor Sources: USGS National Land Cover Database.

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Figure 22:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Map of impermeable surfaces

Sources: USGS National Land Cover Database.

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CURRENT IMPAIRMENTS It goes without saying that land development often has substantial negative impacts on the quality and quantity of a community’s natural resources; yet, economic development often takes precedence over environmental protection. The benefits of economic development are often more immediate, important, and obvious to community members and local officials: the creation of good-paying jobs; provision of affordable housing; and diverse shopping opportunities satisfy many of the priority needs and desires of local consumers.

The benefits of environmental protection are often less evident and immediate, but are nonetheless important as natural resources continue to become scarce and threats to environmental and human health are ever-present.

The following discussion highlights many of the impairments currently degrading natural resources in the Corridor. These impairments can be either direct or in-direct, depending on the circumstance.

Regardless, they can and will have negative impacts on natural resources.

Development

The most direct threat to many natural communities remains the common bulldozer. While many of the remaining natural communities are located on protected lands, others are still subject to development and typically lack adequate protection, whether by cooperative agreements or by local, state, or federal authority. The identification of still-unprotected natural communities and arrangements to protect them are work in progress. Once identified, the preservation of unprotected sites will merit very high priority.

Fragmentation

The size of available habitat is an essential factor for long term health and survival of species and ecological communities. The many aspects of habitat size are encapsulated within the concept of island biogeography, a theory coined by E.O. Wilson of Harvard University.

In general, the theory states that the smaller an area of habitat becomes, the fewer species it can support. Fragmentation can also lead to reductions in biodiversity, connectivity between habitats, genetic flow between species, migration, dispersal, and survival of keystone species.

This can be seen in many of the natural areas that are bisected by roads or downsized to make room for homes, businesses, and parking lots. Many aspects of island biogeography apply not only to a physical separation of terrestrial habitat it also applies to aquatic habitats.

Although water connects stream habitats, both physical and chemical changes can act as barriers that divide streams into smaller pieces of habitat.

Urban Runoff

As watersheds become urbanized, the increased amounts of impervious surface (roofs, parking lots, and roads) and added drainage facilities (point discharge) make water flows “flashier”, hotter, and more polluted, all results of urban runoff that negatively impact flora and fauna. Urban runoff also adds to peak storm flows that increase erosive energy, which changes the physical form of the stream and its suitability as habitat and prevents natural infiltration that reduces groundwater recharge while increasing stream volumes.

Flooding

Flooding is often considered a natural disaster, statements such as “Flooding causes more property damage every year in the United States than any other type of natural disaster” are misleading and do not identify the true culprit – ourselves. The reoccurring floods that plague Lake County and so many other counties in the area are most often attributed to human intervention and impermeable surfaces.

Soil Erosion

Eroded soil causes major problems for downstream recipients, where it causes water turbidity and settles as sediment in wetlands, ponds, and rivers. Sedimentation is a major cause of habitat degradation in streams and wetlands as well, clogging and burying essential habitats. Also, invasive aquatic plants often move into aquatic systems as a result of increased sedimentation that compromises the system.

Pollution

Pollution is a well-documented, major stressor of aquatic systems in the form of sediment, excess nutrients, and toxic substances.

Sediments can create problems such as burying spawning areas, choking small organisms, interfering with feeding, and blocking light from aquatic plants. Excess nutrients can cause excess plant growth, followed by oxygen depletion when algae or plants decay. Toxic substances can have both acute and chronic effects ranging from poisoning to long-term endocrine disruption including feminization of male organisms. Improved sewage treatment has greatly reduced acute affects, but many chronic effects linger and storm water still washes toxins into our streams.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 36

De-icer

Roadway salt spray and salt runoff have significant impacts on structures, especially metal structures, and can require millions of dollars each year to protect and replace them. In conversations with the LCFPD, they stated that road de-icer is one of the most harmful items to flora and fauna in the area. Two studies conducted by independent parties (Williams et. al 2000 and Kelsey et. al 1992) found that atmospheric transport of road salt in the form of sodium chloride (NaCl) applied to highways as a deicing material could travel significant distances when dry. In the Williams et. al 2000 study they specifically found that aerial deposition traveled 1,640 feet from the road. The data was gathered from two sites located southeast of I-55 in the prevailing downwind direction. As airborne salt adheres to plants it desiccates the buds and retards new growth in the spring, often times killing outright the tree or plant it lands on.

De-watering

Draining the land for both agricultural and urban purposes resulted in vast changes to the landscape. Draining the land has lowered water tables and eliminated wetlands, ephemeral ponds, sedge meadows, and wet prairies. The amount of groundwater available, its depth, and the timing of moisture cycles have also changed, altering both soil moisture and the flow of groundwater into streams. These changes have impacted and reduced the diversity of both terrestrial and aquatic habitats throughout the Corridor.

Invasive Species

Invasive species, many of them exotic, are having a huge adverse impact on native flora and fauna in both unprotected and protected areas. In many cases, the effect is magnified by the disruption of natural processes, but some exotic species successfully invade even in the absence of major disruption, e.g., wood-boring beetles, Dutch elm disease, and carp. The short-term need is to control and eliminate invasive exotics before they become widespread. The long-term need is to prevent future introductions of new exotic species and to take quick action to control any new invasions.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 37

PROTECTING THE LANDSCAPE What’s Protected

As previously discussed there are tremendous environmental resources in the Corridor, covering 40,594 acres or 53.2% of the entire Corridor. However, of that amount, 25,405 acres or 63% of the environmental resources are NOT under direct protection of a local, state, federal, or private deed restriction/easement of any kind (Figure 23 and 24). This means that many of the resources within the Corridor are “at risk” since they currently have no protection and may be developed at any time based on underlying zoning.

Unfortunately, even certain public and quasi-public bodies — private golf courses, school districts, churches, hospitals, and other institutions that own open space can, and do, dispose of these lands for other purposes. For example, Thorngate Country Club, located at Riverwoods and Deerfield Roads had been in business for decades and generally taken for granted as permanent open space — until 1991, when it was developed with over 200 houses.

While development has had widespread adverse impact on natural communities and biodiversity, it has also provided the financial and human resources for protecting and restoring what remains. The question is whether the people and institutions of the Corridor will take the needed action to protect open space and natural resources.

There are reasonable yet powerful ways of getting this done and below are just a few of the many ways to get this accomplished.

In particular, county and municipal governments can use their development review and implementation processes to limit impacts of development on the natural habitats needed to sustain biological health.

Figure 23: Natural Resources in a protected zone, figures in acres

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2, David Holman, Lake County SMC, USDA/NRC, ACOE (web search), Lake County Forest Preserve District

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 38

Figure 24:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Natural Resources outside protected areas

Sources: Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Chicago Wilderness GIV 2.2, David Holman, Lake County SMC, USDA/NRC, ACOE (web search), Lake County Forest Preserve District

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 39

Ordinances

In the course of regulating private development and expanding the public infrastructure in the Corridor, public officials have an opportunity to preserve and enhance biodiversity. This can be accomplished through the inclusion of biodiversity objectives within laws or ordinances governing the development process.

To understand what protections are currently in place, a search of each municipality’s ordinances and municipal codes was conducted (Figure 25). The following ordinances were found that would help offset or curb direct impacts from conventional development patterns.

However, even these were fairly generic and did not respond directly to the preservation and enhancement of biodiversity.

Figure 25: Environmental Protection Ordinances Source: WRD

their development laws to remove barriers, create incentives and fill regulatory gaps based on a core set of sustainability objectives. Unlike most one-size-fits-all approaches, the Code Framework is contextual and place-based, enabling communities to customize their land use and development rules according to their own particular political, economic, and environmental circumstances. They also can provide key information on and access to best-in-class models from other jurisdictions to help position communities for success in their race toward environmental stewardship.

Other resources include: >> The Sustainable Sites Initiative™ (SITES™) an interdisciplinary partnership led by the American Society of Landscape Architects (ASLA), the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the United States Botanic Garden – This report shows how to transform land development and management practices through the nation’s first voluntary guidelines and rating system for sustainable landscapes, with or without buildings. >> Sustainable Cities Institute’s Model Ordinances & Guidelines for Sustainable Development - This report provides model ordinances and guidance on a variety of sustainable policies including growth management, managing of community resources, neighborhood design and infrastructure.

In regards to stormwater management, all Villages and Municipalities have a Watershed Protection Ordinance in place. Effective June 11, 2013, SMC issued the Watershed Development Ordinance (WDO).

This document allows 40 of the 52 municipalities in the county, which are Certified Communities, to enforce WDO standards within their own jurisdictions, except for isolated wetlands; these are still under the jurisdiction of SMC. The goal of the WDO is to ensure that new development does not increase existing stormwater problems or create new ones. The WDO establishes minimum county wide standards for stormwater management, including floodplains, detention, soil erosion/sediment control, water quality treatment, and wetland protection.

Enacting ordinances that support Smart Growth, Sustainable Design, and/or New Urbanism principles should be considered to preserve open space, install green infrastructure, and enhance existing natural areas. A resource that would help municipalities understand where and how to improve their ordinances can be found through the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). RMI has developed a Code Framework that shows municipalities how to embed the best sustainability ideas in to actual land use laws. The Code Framework is an informative and evaluative framework that aligns means with ends. It allows municipalities, regions and states to seamlessly audit and upgrade

With a bit of dedication to fostering a transformation in land design and development practices, municipalities in the corridor, Lake County, and beyond, could bring the essential importance of ecosystem services to the forefront of decision-making and implementation. Current growth predictions and economic analyses should not impede environmental stability; it should and can support it.

40

KEY OPEN SPACE & NATURAL RESOURCES FINDINGS >> Pre-settlement landscapes are extremely rare in the County and the Corridor, and wherever found, should be afforded the highest level of protection and enhancement. >> Open space and natural resources cover 40,594 acres or 53.2% of the entire Corridor. However, of that amount, 25,405 acres or 63% of the environmental resources are NOT under direct protection of a local, state, federal agency, or protected by private deed restriction/easement of any kind. >> Current land development patterns are impacting, both directly and in-directly, all of the natural resources within the Corridor, regardless of their protection status. >> Municipalities have an opportunity to amend their comprehensive plans, zoning ordinances, and other regulations to incorporate relevant recommendations that protect and enhance natural resources in the Corridor. >> Key decision-makers such as elected officials and their staff need to improve their current state of biodiversity knowledge.

41

MARKET

While Lake County is projected to grow in both population and employment through 2040, growth will come at a slower pace than over the past 30 years. Significant new development across all market-driven land uses â&#x20AC;&#x201C; industrial, office, retail and residential â&#x20AC;&#x201C; has occurred over the past 15 years, and the Corridor is already capturing a significant percentage of development in the County.

Growth in population and employment, in addition to broader economic trends, will continue to drive new development in the future. However, communities are planning for significant non-residential development in the Corridor that is unlikely to be realized through 2040, even if the future development pace mirrored the past. At the same time, Corridor communities are planning for far less residential development than might be expected. Understanding market constraints and opportunities will help to effectively plan for the Corridorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future.

The market, demographic and economic data presented in this section provide insight into recent development trends and an initial idea of future market potential within the County and Corridor. Broader real estate market trends provide insight into how future development may differ from the past, even while core real estate location preferences remain unchanged. Key findings from the existing conditions market assessment are presented here, with more detailed market data and methodology provided in the Appendix. The next phase of work will build on this market data and provide projections of future market potential by land use within the Corridor.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 42

LAKE COUNTY PROJECTED TO GROW IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT BUT AT A SLOWER PACE THAN HISTORICAL TRENDS Population and employment growth impact real estate demand, land use, transportation systems and the natural environment. Relatively high growth rates of both population and employment in Lake County during the past 30 years are expected to temper somewhat over the next 30 years. According to the most recent projections, Lake County is projected to add over 268,000 new residents and 112,000 new jobs through 2040. While this level of growth will present opportunities for new development, careful planning will be required to ensure land use, transportation and environmental impacts are taken into consideration, maintaining the high quality of life in Lake County that has led to strong population growth in the past.

Figure 27: Lake County Population Source: US Census Bureau, Woods and Poole, CMAP, SB Friedman

Countywide population increased by approximately 261,000 from 1980 to 2010, resulting in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of population was 1.6%. CMAP and Woods & Poole suggest that population growth rate is expected to moderate from 2010 to 2040, with a CAGR of 1.08% to 1.15%, respectively². Despite the moderating growth rate, population growth will likely match or exceed growth over the past 30 years, with between 267,000 and 288,000 new residents added. The increased population will provide demand for new residential and retail development, as well as providing a local workforce for existing and new businesses in the County.

Over the past 30 years, Lake County employment grew at a faster rate than population. The number of employees working in Lake County nearly doubled from 162,000 employees in 1980 to 323,000 employees in 2010, resulting in a CAGR of 2.0% over the period.

Following the onset of the Great Recession, employment in Lake County declined, falling approximately 7% from a peak of 347,000 jobs in 2008. Employment has rebounded since 2010, and by 2013, employment reached 335,000, recovering approximately half of the jobs lost during the recession. Moody’s and CMAP project that 112,000 to 149,000 jobs will be added in Lake County, respectively, from 2010 to 20402. While significant growth is expected over the period, job creation is projected to occur at a slower pace than historically, with CAGR ranging from 1.0% (Moody’s) to 1.3% (CMAP).

Figure 26: Compound Annual Growth Rate

Source: US Census Bureau, Moody’s, Woods and Poole, CMAP, SB Friedman

1980-2010

2010-2040

POPULATION

1.6%

1.08% - 1.15%

EMPLOYMENT

2.0%

1.0 - 1.3%

2 A description of the differences in projection methodologies and the rationale for including multiple projections are included in the Appendix.

Figure 28: Lake County Employment Source: US Census Bureau, Moody’s, CMAP, SB Friedman

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 43

HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS SHOW THE CORRIDOR IS ALREADY CAPTURING A SIGNIFICANT SHARE OF NEW COUNTY DEVELOPMENT Projected population and employment in Lake County are key factors in determining future development potential within the Corridor.

Historical development patterns and current market conditions within the Corridor and County provide information on market opportunities and constraints, setting the stage for estimating development potential following construction of the IL 53/120 facility.

As shown in Figure 29, the Corridor is already capturing a significant amount of development in the County. Historically, development was focused around the I-94 corridor, east of Milwaukee Avenue. As land along I-94 is increasingly built out, development has moved westward, resulting in the Corridor already capturing a significant share of

County development. In fact, all land uses except office captured more than a “fair share” of development: the Corridor includes about 23% of land in the County; all else being equal, a fair share of development would therefore be about 23% of development in the County.

The following pages provide a summary of recent development patterns and current market conditions. More detailed data for each land use is provided in the Appendix to this document.

Figure 29: Share of New County Development Captured in Corridor Source: CoStar, US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

Non-Residential 1998 - 2013

Residential 2000 - 2010

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 44

OFFICE

In recent years, office development has been impacted by the recession, and relatively high office vacancy continued through 2013 in both Lake County (13.7%) and the region (14.4%). Office vacancy within the Corridor has tended to be higher than in the County overall, though Corridor vacancy fell to 12.6% in 2013, with the lease up of close to 500,000 square feet of office space in Long Grove and Vernon Hills. Lake County contains only about 8% of the regional office inventory, though there is a significant concentration of Class A multi-tenant and corporate office space along I-94.

Corporate office typically consists of single-tenant headquarter buildings or larger multi-tenant Class A and B space, generally concentrated along major interstates and interchanges, with locations accessible to corporate executives. Such office tends to be highly visible from the interstate. As of 2013, 62% of the existing office development in Lake County can be characterized as corporate office 3, and the majority of new development in the County is corporate office.

Non-corporate office serves a wide variety of smaller tenants with limited need for direct highway visibility or regional access, including professional firms and medical uses. While only 38% of existing office square footage in Lake County is of the non-corporate type, the vast majority of office buildings (89%) are non-corporate. Such development will continue to located throughout the County and Corridor in the future.

Over the past 15 years, the Corridor has captured 19% of new office development in the County, primarily within existing office clusters that overlap the Corridor. With few remaining corporate office sites along I-94, the Corridor’s potential will increase, although existing clusters will continue to be competitive. The currently vacant space in existing buildings will need to be leased before significant new corporate development occurs in Lake County.

Figure 30: Historical Office Vacancy Rates Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

3 Corporate office has been defined for the purposes of this assessment as Class A/B office over 100,000 square feet and some smaller office developments in selected business parks along I-94 and Milwaukee Avenue.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 45

TOTAL OFFICE INVENTORY, 2013 Figure 31:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Existing Lake County Office Development

36.7 MILLION SQUARE FEET

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

1. Abbott Park 2. Lincolnshire North Center 3. Parkway North Center,

1

Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Hyatt Deerfield Campus 4. Kemper Lakes Business Park 5. Conway Park, Woodland Falls, Lake Forest 6. Corporate 500 Centre 7. Former Motorola Mobility 8. Tri-State International Office 9. Continental Executive Park 10. Deer Park Office Center

7

5

4

10

9

8

2 3

6

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 46

INDUSTRIAL

Industrial vacancy in Lake County is relatively low (9.1%) and similar to the regional vacancy rate (8.7%), as of 2013. Industrial development in the Corridor was better occupied than both the County and region, with just 7.2% vacancy in 2013. Industrial inventory within the County has grown by 11.9 million square feet over the past 15 years, and the Corridor has captured a significant amount (53%) of the new development, with Waukegan, Lake Zurich, Gurnee and Libertyville adding the most industrial space within the Corridor.

Industrial real estate location decisions are typically driven by accessibility to transportation and an appropriate labor force, clusters of similar companies, location of major manufacturers, relatively inexpensive land and low property taxes. Large warehouse and distribution facilities greater than 500,000 square feet that serve a national distribution market are generally located at or near intermodal hubs at the confluence of Class I railroads, major highways and air or water ports. In the Chicagoland region, Will County, South Suburbs and the Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Hare area are the national freight and distribution hubs. Lake County has no intermodal facilities and distribution facilities in the County serve a more regional market, so tend to be smaller.

Kenosha County in Wisconsin, just north of Lake County, has been increasingly attractive to warehouse and distribution facilities due, in part, to lower effective property tax rates than many Lake County communities. Initial conversations with developers and economic development experts suggest that Kenosha County is less able to attract the types of manufacturing and high-tech industrial firms that require a highly-trained workforce. Lake County has a highly-educated workforce and is likely to continue to attract industrial firms requiring more advanced skills.

Industrial is currently the strongest real estate market in Lake County, with relatively low vacancies and strong recent absorption, suggesting near-term development potential. Future competitiveness of the Corridor for industrial development will require adequate transportation flow so that traffic delays do not increase business costs.

Figure 32:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Historical Industrial Vacancy Rates Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 47

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL INVENTORY, 2013 Figure 33:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Existing Lake County Industrial Development

73 MILLION SQUARE FEET

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

2

1 4 3

5

12

6

7

8 9 10

11

1. Lake Villa 2. Zion 3. Gurnee 4. Waukegan 5. Grayslake 6. Libertyville 7. North Chicago 8. Vernon Hills 9. Lake Zurich 10. Lake Barrington 11. Buffalo Grove 12. Volo

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 48

RETAIL

The County currently has 35.6 million square feet of retail space, with 7.2 million square feet added since 1998. The Corridor captured approximately 36% of new retail development in the past 15 years.

Retail vacancy has trended upward in both the County and Corridor since 2006, and in 2013 the Corridor vacancy rate (14.3%) exceeded that of both the County (11.5%) and region (9.4%).

The remaining 24.5 million square feet of retail in the County consists of downtown shopping centers and many smaller community, neighborhood and convenience centers, as well as freestanding stores such as gas stations or restaurants. These local retailers are located throughout the County, with additional space developed with local population or employment growth.

Retail development is primarily driven by household demand. Major destination retail centers such as super regional malls serve a broad regional consumer base, so tend to prefer highway locations providing access to the greatest number of consumers. Other retail centers, such as power centers and community-oriented retail centers, tend to locate on primary arterials, and are spatially distributed to serve the existing population in a particular area. Figure 35 on the following page shows the spatial distribution of existing power centers, lifestyle centers and regional malls in Lake County. These are the most significant retail centers serving existing residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; and workersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; needs, and contain approximately 11.1 million square feet of space, or about one third of the total retail space in the County.

Major existing retail centers are likely to attract complementary retail and entertainment uses in the future, as demand increases with countywide population and employment growth. New retail centers will also be developed, dependent on local population, employment and tourism growth.

Figure 34:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Historical Retail Vacancy Rates Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 49

TOTAL RETAIL INVENTORY, 2013 Figure 35: Significant Existing Retail Centers Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

35.6 MILLION SQUARE FEET

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 50

RESIDENTIAL

From 2000 to 2010, approximately 34,000 residential units were constructed in Lake County, significantly exceeding the 25,000 new households formed over the same period. This mismatch between new home development and household formation was a result of overbuilding that occurred during the housing boom, when low interest rates and loose underwriting standards inflated new residential construction beyond fundamental demand drivers such as household growth.

From the beginning of the economic downturn in 2008 through early 2014, quarterly construction starts for new housing units in the County have averaged just 15% of pre-recession levels (2000 to 2007), according to Metrostudy data. Housing vacancy levels have also increased from 4.3% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2010, according to US Census data. Despite increased vacancy in the wake of the recession, housing was better occupied in the County in 2010 than in the Chicago region overall, where the vacancy level was 8.4%.

The residential market within the Corridor has performed better than the County as a whole, with only 5.3% vacancy in 2010. Additionally, from 2011 to early 2014, 62% of housing starts in the County have occurred in the Corridor, suggesting that the housing market within the Corridor is recovering faster than the County as a whole.

While single-family home development on relatively large lots have been the common development typology in Lake County historically, several communities noted during interviews that developers have recently been pursuing smaller-lot, attached housing and multifamily rental options. Continued population growth in Lake County will present opportunities for increasing occupancy of existing residential development, completing unfinished subdivisions and developing new areas, and enhancing the diversity of residential product.

Figure 36:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Lake County Housing Starts Source: Metrostudy, SB Friedman

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 51

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS, 2013 Single Family: 207,000 Figure 37:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Net Change in Lake County Housing Units, 2000 - 2010 Source: US Census Bureau, SB Friedman

Multi-Family: 49,000

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 52

COMMUNITIES WILL NOT ACHIEVE THE FULL BUILD-OUT DEPICTED IN THEIR MUNICIPAL FUTURE LAND USE PLANS WITHIN THE NEXT 30 YEARS Figure 38:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Future Land Use Change

Sources: Lake County Future Land Use Plan: Lake County Planning, Building and Development Department- Revised November 2012; 2011 Village of Mundelein Comprehensive Plan 2013 Village of Volo Comprehensive Plan; 2013 Village of Lakemoor Comprehensive Plan

Future Added Acres by Land Use

Planned Development Estimate

Residential*

7,278

12,000 Units

Retail/ Commercial*

3,296

35 M SF

Industrial

2,679

48 M SF

Office

1,064

18 M SF

224

3 M SF

1,387

1,400 Acres

LAND USE

Government & Institutional Open Space

* Includes mixed-use development

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 53

Development of the limited-access IL 53/120 facility is expected to unlock development potential along the Corridor, though initial analysis suggests Corridor communities are planning for significantly more non-residential development over the next 30 years than might be expected based on historical trends. At the same time, it appears communities are planning for far less residential development than might be expected, based on Corridor communities’ future land use plans and development densities specified in local regulations.

As shown in Figure 39 below, about 22 million square feet of office, industrial and retail development would be expected in the Corridor over the next 30 years, based on historic development trends.

However, Corridor communities are planning for approximately 101 million square feet of non-residential development, close to five times the development quantity that would be realized if future development over the next 30 years mirrored the historic development pace over the past 15 years. In fact, planned development within the Corridor exceeds potential development (based on historic trends) for the entire County, by a factor of almost two.

Non-Residential Development

planned Corridor development 4.5 times MORE than historical trends

While Corridor communities have planned for far more non-residential development than is possible over the next 30 years, communities are planning for less residential development than would be expected based on recent trends. Communities are planning for 12,000 residential units in the Corridor, just one third of the 34,000 units that would be expected over the next 30 years based on historic trends.

While the potential development figures for each land uses will be revised during the next phase of work through a more detailed market analysis, the historic trends provide an initial framework for considering future market potential. Historic information indicates that available land planned for development within the Corridor is unlikely to be the primary constraint on future development. While changes in development patterns, as discussed in the next section, will impact 30-year development potential, planned non-residential development within the Corridor will continue to exceed demand.

Residential Development

planned Corridor development LESS than 1/3 of historical trends

Figure 39: Planned Development Estimates Source: CoStar, US Census Bureau, CMAP, The Lakota Group, SB Friedman.

Planned Development estimates based on future land use changes identified in Corridor communities’ future land use plans and communities’ development regulations. Thirty-year non-residential development estimates for the corridor were estimated assuming the pace of future non-residential development for each land use mirrors the 15-year historical development pace. Future residential development estimates were assumed to mirror the residential development pace from 2000 to 2010.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 54

REAL ESTATE MARKETS ARE ON THE PATH OF RECOVERY, BUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO DIFFER FROM THE PAST

OFFICE

With current vacancies higher than the average for the past 15 years, the Lake County office market has yet to recover from the effects of the recession. Corridor vacancy has historically been higher than regional and County vacancy, though leasing of over 500,000 square feet in 2013 alone reduced Corridor vacancy to 12.6% in 2013, lower than the 13.7% County vacancy and 14.4% regional vacancy. Continued growth in office sector jobs will bring down vacancy rates in the County, making way for more substantial new Class A multi-tenant or corporate office development. However, potential relocation of large corporate headquarters to downtown Chicago or abroad could pose a challenge to the market, such as Motorola Mobility Inc.’s recent vacation of its 1 million square foot campus in Libertyville.

INDUSTRIAL

Overall, the regional industrial market has recovered from the recession. Prior to the recession, Lake County and Corridor industrial product had lower vacancy than the region overall, but both were impacted by the recession to a greater extent than the region. While the County and Corridor have largely recovered, the Corridor has done so more quickly, with lower vacancy in 2012 and 2013 than both the County and Region.

The Chicago region’s continued prominence as a major distribution and logistics hub is expected to continue, and growth in e-commerce will present new opportunities for growth in warehousing, transportation, and distribution. An increasing proportion of new industrial development is distribution centers, as new space is brought online to meet the In the future, the Corridor will compete with existing Class A office growing needs of e-commerce firms. While major distribution centers clusters, primarily located along I-94, to attract new development. are likely to continue to locate near intermodal hubs and in relatively Medical and professional office development will continue to locate low-property tax counties such as Kenosha County in Wisconsin, throughout the County. Several Class A office development trends will smaller warehousing and distribution firms often need to locate nearer likely impact Corridor development potential, including: to population centers to provide same-day, or next-day deliveries.

Competitive office centers of the future are likely to be integrated mixeduse centers, providing workers with access to retail, entertainment and housing opportunities in a more walkable environment than traditional suburban office centers.

Furthermore, the increasing importance of advanced manufacturing may drive demand for light industrial space in Lake County.

Advanced manufacturing often requires a highly-trained workforce with specialized skills, presenting opportunities in sectors such as biopharma and medical instrument machinery and tooling, sectors in New office centers will often offer multimodal accessibility in order which Lake County already maintains a competitive advantage. to attract a young, skilled workforce. Interviews with local developers and businesses suggest that many younger employees commute from outside Lake County and seek alternatives to driving.

The amount of office floor space per employee is expected to continue to decline, facilitated in part by an increasing use of collaborative space and flexible office formats. Advances in technology also allow for increased telecommuting, further reducing the need for office space.

Figure 40: Usable Square Footage Per Office Employee

Source: CoreNet Global. Usable SF consists of the space the tenant actually occupies in a building, net of common areas such as lobbies, corridors and bathrooms.

Figure 41: Distribution Centers as a Percent of Total New Development (Chicago Region) Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 55

RETAIL

While retail vacancy within the Corridor and County was similar to the region in 2006, vacancy was increasing in both geographies even before the recession. Lake County experienced an overbuilding of retail space over the past decade as retailers sought to establish a market presence in anticipation of new residential development. Many of these new retail centers continue to have high vacancies, as stores have never moved in or closed following the economic downturn. In addition, the recession impacted sales performance of many large retailers, causing several national chains, such as Borders, Linen n Things, and CompUSA, to close. The recovery is currently benefitting more urban locations with an existing population base. Retailers today are more cautious about opening new stores on the promise of future residential development. In 2013, Corridor and County vacancy rates were 14.3% and 11.5%, respectively, both substantially higher than regional retail vacancy of 9.4%. Improvements in the retail market will depend on increasing consumer demand, driven by new households, employment, tourism and/or increasing incomes.

RESIDENTIAL

The quality of place is increasingly important to residents, with mixedused housing developments, transit accessibility, walkability and amenity-rich neighborhoods in increasing demand. A growing number of households also seek to live near where they work, decreasing commute times and increasing quality of life. Recent trends have already resulted in increased residential density, driven by a slow job recovery, changing housing and neighborhood preferences, more multi-family housing, and smaller lot sizes.

Residential development of the future will need to account for these dynamics and housing preferences, as well as demographic shifts.

The high-growth senior population, in particular may require a range of housing products, including single-family homes that allow seniors to age in place, active retirement communities, and a range of assisted living options. There may also be more multigenerational households as elderly move in with relatives. Increasing numbers of young professionals may lead to an increase in demand for rental units and smaller, more affordable single-family homes. Interviews Future retail development patterns will be impacted by a divergence in with Lake County employers and developers suggest there may already retail typologies and the increasing importance of retail e-commerce. unmet demand for high-amenity, transit-friendly housing attractive to the younger generations. At least one company is reacting to a The two distinct retail typologies are as follows: need for a young, educated workforce by running private buses to shuttle Millennial employees from downtown Chicago to Lake County. >> Experience-focused retail consists of high-end and lifestyle Therefore, providing rental and ownership housing in an amenityretail centers offering a mix of uses, including dining and rich environment that attracts young professionals will be critical to entertainment. Such retail may be found in new construction maintaining Lake Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s competitive position for office, industrial shopping centers or walkable downtown districts. and retail uses. >> Convenience- and/or value-focused retail is developed in power, community and convenience retail centers that sell basic goods and services, including grocery. The purpose of such centers is to provide convenient access to a range of goods and services, without as much concern for the ambience and experience.

Retail e-commerce is expected to continue to grow substantially, impacting the amount of physical retail space required by tenants.

In the future, some stores will function as showrooms and service centers, as well as retail space. Web and in-store shopping platforms are expected increase, reducing physical retail square footage.

Figure 42:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Retail E-Commerce Sales as a Percent of Total Retail Sales Figure 43:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Average Lot Size (acres) Source: Deloitte, Dematic

Source: CoStar, SB Friedman

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KEY MARKET FINDINGS >> Lake County is projected to grow in population and employment through 2040, but at a slower pace than historical trends. Population and employment growth will present opportunities for new development. >> Historical development patterns show the Corridor is already capturing a significant portion of new County development. >> Communities will not achieve the full build-out depicted in their municipal future land use plans within the next 30 years. Planned development within the Corridor significantly exceeds development potential for office, retail and industrial uses, based on historic development trends, while planned residential development appears insufficient to accommodate historic residential development trends, even with a lower rate of population growth. >> While the industrial market is strong, the local office and retail markets have not yet recovered from the recession.

The continued recovery and improving real estate conditions will result in new development opportunities in the Corridor . >> Future real estate development patterns are likely to differ from the past, with e-commerce impacting both retail and industrial development, and demographic changes and preferences impacting residential and office development.

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LAND USE Lake County has developed at a rapid pace, leaving many stakeholders remembering a less congested, more open and more livable area. Meanwhile, rapid development is projected to continue. The municipalities in the Corridor, working independently and without the benefit of a comprehensive planning effort, have proposed through their future land use plans another 10,000 acres of residential development, another 6,500 acres of commercial development, and the loss of 6,800 acres of farmland. These future land use plans, together with other existing policies, encourage a continuation of the low-density development that is expensive to maintain, harmful to the environment, and challenging for the livability of those who make the area their home.

DRAFT: SEPTEMBER 17, 2014 58 The Existing Land Use Map (Figure 44) presents an inventory of existing land uses by parcel, as collected by Lake County in 2005.

The Planned Future Land Use Map (Figure 45) presents a composite of the future land use plans for each of the municipalities as well as for Lake County. The County prepared the base map in development Figure 44:â&#x20AC;&#x192; 2005 Land Use Area

Source: Lake County

of the Lake County Regional Framework Plan (2008), and has periodically updated it, with the most recent version in 2012. For this study, future land use plans that were completed after the Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most recent update were used to modify the exhibit.

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Figure 45:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Planned Future Land Use

Sources: Lake County Future Land Use Plan: Lake County Planning, Building and Development Department- Revised November 2012; 2011 Village of Mundelein Comprehensive Plan 2013 Village of Volo Comprehensive Plan; 2013 Village of Lakemoor Comprehensive Plan

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The largest area of increase in acreage within the Corridor between the Existing Land Use inventory and the Planned Land Use is within the category of residential. These uses represent about 19% of existing land uses within the Corridor, but are planned to increase about 10,000 acres, growing to occupy about 35% of the Corridor in the future land use. This increase is comparable to the amount of change anticipated in the Lake County Regional Framework Plan, which showed residential uses increasing from 25% to 40% of the County’s land uses.

What is interesting to note is that although residential uses represent the largest increase in land coverage as a percentage of Corridor land uses, the number of residential units planned for is still less than historical trends would require. This implies that the average planned densities may not be appropriate and may not be in balance with demand and Corridor capacity. This will be further explored and tested in future phases of this process once the market demand has been modeled.

The Lake County Regional Framework Plan (2008) also forecasted that by 2020 the county would see an increase in retail/commercial land use from 7,077 acres (2.4%) to 13,209 acres (4.4%). Similarly, it forecasted office/research increases from 2,241 acres (0.7%) to 7,505 acres (2.5%) and industrial increases from 5,478 acres (1.8%) to 11,070 acres (3.7%).

These large increases are mirrored within the Corridor. The future land use shows retail/commercial increasing from 1,590 acres (2.1%) to 4,234 acres (5.5%), office/research from 388 acres (0.5%) to 1,997 acres (2.6%), and industrial from 2,018 acres (2.6%) to 4,286 acres (5.6%). As shown in the market assessment section of this report, these increases exceed the development potential of the next 30 years, and future land use plans should be modified to consolidate the amount of land planned for commercial, office and industrial uses.

The establishment of sewer agreements between Lake County and several municipalities within the Corridor in the last decade has also impacted the types of land uses planned for within the Corridor.

These agreements are a reaction to significant residential growth in the early 2000’s that, in many cases, create a burden on school districts and do not provide enough tax revenue to support the installation and maintenance of infrastructure. Therefore, the sewer agreements require additional non-residential land uses that will help with tax generation before new residential development is allowed.

The large amount of land dedicated to non-residential uses within the future land use plans can partially be attributed to these agreements.

With these increases in development, there is a decrease in natural areas and agriculture. Potential changes in open space are difficult to calculate, as the municipal future land use plans do not all classify these areas in the same way. Additionally, the mapping of other developed land uses is usually conveyed on a parcel level in these maps and does not detail wetlands or other natural features that may be preserved, or does not define dedicated open spaces that may well be part of the development. However, the future land use plans do identify development on a large amount of greenfield sites, which would result in a loss of currently undeveloped area.

Existing and planned amount of agriculture land easier to calculate.

The Lake County Regional Framework Plan specifically points out for the entire County that its future land use map “designates nearly 20,000 acres for continued agricultural use. This represents a decrease of over 50% from the 43,500 acres identified in the 2000 Land Use Inventory.”

However, within the Corridor Study Area, the decrease is more dramatic. In the 2005 Land Use Inventory, 11,058 acres are identified as agricultural use, but in the Planned Land Use Map, this quantity decreases 62% to 4,210 acres.

Figure 46: Comparison of 2005 Land Uses with Planned Future Land Use Change

Sources: Lake County Future Land Use Plan: Lake County Planning, Building and Development Department- Revised November 2012; 2011 Village of Mundelein Comprehensive Plan 2013 Village of Volo Comprehensive Plan; 2013 Village of Lakemoor Comprehensive Plan

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More detailed records of farm land (Holman, 2008) show 7,394 acres of active farmland within the Corridor. Based on the 2004 USDA Soil Survey, 4,859 acres of this is Prime Agricultural Land, with the remaining 2,535 acres being Non-Prime Agricultural Land. The Planned Land Use Map shows 5,211 acres (70%) of agriculture land reclassified as either development (2,700 acres) or public/private open space (2,511 acres). (See Figure 47) As discussed in detail in Lake County Sustainable Food Systems Report (2013), there is a local trend towards a growing number of smaller farms moving towards sustainable farming practices and local food production. This was also a priority for a number of stakeholders such as the College of Lake County, which is training veterans in local food production, and Mano a Mano, where immigrants are using their agricultural experience to earn money and feed their community.

However, the demand for locally grown food sources exceeds the supply within Lake County4. The preservation of agricultural land and the support of local sustainable food production have also been shown to contribute significant benefits to the local economy.

4 Meter, Ken. “Local Food as Economic Development.” Crossroads Resource Center. October 2008.

Figure 47: Impact of Future Land Use Plans on Agricultural Land Sources: USDA Soil Survey, 2014; Holman, 2008

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OPPORTUNITIES FOR INFILL WITHIN THE CORRIDOR As a result of their focus on greenfield sites, the Future Land Use Plans have the potential to lose sight of the development opportunities that can be achieved through infill. Infill is the redevelopment of existing underutilized sites. This type of development has the potential to address a portion of the market demand without additional disturbances to the natural environment or the loss of additional open space or agricultural land.

Additionally, there are many benefits to infill development. As noted in CMAP’s Regional Snapshot on Infill (2008): Redeveloping infill sites can offer substantial benefits. It can revitalize stressed communities, increase tax revenues, provide opportunities to create affordable housing, preserve natural resources in undeveloped areas, and effectively use existing infrastructure and services. From an economic perspective, infill development can be a win-win strategy. Added residents and businesses contribute to tax revenue without creating much additional demand for new municipal infrastructure such as roads, sewers, or electrical lines.

While infill sites need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, this study uses a mechanism for identifying potential underutilized sites. The mechanism is “Improvement Value to Land Value Ratio,” a process described in the same CMAP document. This I/L ratio relationship uses County Assessor’s data to calculate the total value of improvements against the value of land. If the ratio is 1.0, the improvements and land are of equal value. Ratios of more than 1.0 indicate that improvements have a higher value than the land and the land itself is being used in an economically effective manner.

Assuming that land value is, in part, determined by the potential income stream generated if the property is used to its fullest extent, a ratio of less than 1.0 indicates that the land is worth more than the improvements made on it and that the land is not being used to its economic potential. This ratio applies to single-family residential sites. For multi-family residential sites and non-residential uses, the ratio of less than 0.5 is used as a threshold for identifying sites with untapped economic potential.

These ratios were mapped for the Corridor, and all sites meeting the threshold were then reviewed and compared against aerial maps and the Planned Land Use Map to further refine the potential infill sites.

In many cases, due to the way land is classified in the Planned Land Use Map, open space and detention features within developments appeared as having a low ratio. These sites were removed from consideration and the map shown in Figure 49: Land Value Ratio was prepared.

This approach helps identify the existing potential within the Corridor, but it is not intended to recommend redevelopment of any of the specific parcels. Each site would need further in-depth study. For example, in some cases the parcels identified for infill are platted lots that are part of an unfinished single-family residential development, where the possible redevelopment options are limited. Still, some residential market demand can still be met by such infill sites, rather than entirely by development on greenfield sites.

After the underutilized sites were identified, the Planned Land Use Map was used to first classify those sites according to land use, and then to identify how many acres of greenfield land those infill sites could potentially save from development in the Corridor.

Figure 48 shows the amount of acres identified per land use category generated by the land value ratio analysis. If these infill sites were used to address future market demands, it would represent the preservation of 3,878 acres of agriculture and open space lands shown replaced by development.

Figure 48: Potential for Infill to Reduce Demand on Agriculture and Open Space for Development

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Figure 49:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Land Value Ratio

Source: Lake County Assessor Data, 2013

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TRANSIT SUPPORTIVE ZONING Through these documents run important and common themes: sustainable economic development, environmental protection, and transportation that fosters community. These themes were also voiced by stakeholders in many of our interviews. Specific attention was paid to supportive zoning for transit. As indicated previously in the discussions on mobility, the Corridor is currently underserved by transit. Zoning and future planning for development will need to consider higher densities that are supportive of transit if this is to change. The exhibit below provides average minimum dwelling units and employees per acre needed to support various transit types:

Additional density will need to be permitted through local zoning ordinances if existing transit networks are to be expanded, or new transit networks are to be created.

As a further part of the zoning analysis, existing zoning districts that appeared transit-supportive were identified. Generally, these transitsupportive districts provide higher levels of density, have small or no front-yard setbacks, encourage mixed-uses, require sidewalks, and are located near existing walkable development. While not comprehensive, the following list provides a few examples of districts within the Corridor that are positive examples for fostering a transitsupportive character.

Mode

Frequency

Minimum Dwelling Units per Acre

Minimum Employees per Acre

Local Bus

1 bus/hour

3.5 to 6

50 to 80

Local Bus

1 bus/30 minutes

7

80 to 200

Local Bus

1 bus/10 minutes

15

200 to 500

Express Bus

1 bus/20 to 30 minutes

15

>> Grayslake’s CB Central Business District: Established to provide pedestrian-oriented areas for commercial development.

Rapid Transit

Every 5 minutes during peak periods

12

>> Grayslake’s R6 Residential District: Established to provide high density urban living.

Light Rail

Every 5 minutes during peak periods

9

Commuter Rail

20 trains/day

1 to 2

500+

Sources: Pushkarev and Zupan (1977). Public Transportation and Land Use Policy. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN. and Victoria Transport Policy Institute (2011), Transit Oriented Development: Using Public Transit to Create More Accessible and Livable Neighborhoods, accessed at http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm45.htm

In order to understand how the Corridor’s actual densities correlate with transit options, the maximum dwelling units per acre were first mapped for all of the residential districts within the Corridor.

For zoning ordinances where the dwelling units per acre were not expressly provided, a theoretical maximum was developed based on the minimum lot size.

Additionally, for non-residential uses, a maximum F.A.R. (floor area ratio) was mapped either using the quantity provided, or by calculating a theoretical maximum using maximum coverage and building heights. This maximum F.A.R. was then used, along with average square feet per employee amounts per use, to calculate a theoretical maximum number of employees per acre for each zoning district.

The resulting exhibit (See Figure 50: Transit Supportive Density/ Intensity per Zoning) displays these densities and organizes them according to the minimums needed to support the different modes of transit. As can be seen in the exhibit, large amounts of the Corridor are only able to provide densities that, at a maximum, support commuter rail. In fact, almost 85% of the Corridor’s land area is zoned for densities that will not support even the lowest frequencies of local bus. There are some centralized areas, generally around existing downtowns and Metra stations, that provide for densities that would support some type of fixed route bus service. When compared to Figure 7 on page 16 of this report showing Metra and Pace transit routes, these area are generally served by Pace Bus already.

>> Mundelein’s C-5 Downtown Zoning District: Comprised of four subdistricts, the Downtown Zoning is intended to facilitate redevelopment within the downtown that creates a mixed-use, pedestrian and transit-oriented character.

TRANSPORTATION AFFORDABILITY As described above, because public transit requires minimum supportive densities and nearby land uses, development patterns and zoning ordinances can limit transportation options. Conversely, the presence of quality transportation options is often a determining factor when people choose where to live, both in terms of livability and affordability. Unfortunately, the increase in congestion, travel times, and travel distances, coupled with rising gas prices, have resulted in increased transportation costs in Lake County.

Housing and transportation costs are the two largest expenses for most households. To understand the effect of location on housing and transportation costs, the Housing + Transportation (H+T) Affordability Index looks at the percent of household income that an average household in the region would spend on housing and transportation if they lived in a particular area. The standard threshold of affordability is equal to 30% for housing costs and 45% for housing and transportation costs combined.

Residents in Lake County spend, on average, nearly 25% of their income on transportation, while the affordability threshold would be 15%. Residents of Chicago spend 16.9% and the regional average is 21.5%. Typically, households closer to transit and employment centers have lower transportation costs, although their homes may also be more desirable and cost more. In central Lake County, transportation costs can be so high that they outweigh the advantages of less expensive housing.

Note: The H+T Index is based on the income of an average household in the region and does not necessarily reflect local differences in income.

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Figure 50:â&#x20AC;&#x192; Transit Supportive Density/Intensity per Zoning

Sources: Unincorporated Lake County- Lake County, 2014; Municipal Zoning- Various

Supporting Transit Services NO SERVICE

LOCAL BUS - 1 per 1 hr LOCAL BUS - 1 per 30 min LIGHT RAIL

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KEY LAND USE FINDINGS >> A significant portion of the Corridor area is already developed and is poised for substantial further development. >> Development pressure is increased by the municipalitiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; future land use plans, which propose a substantial amount of low-density, auto-centric development that is likely not appropriate to address the changing development patterns. >> Even if all planned development does not occur, the expectations for development created by these plans can threaten agriculture and open space in the corridor and hinder the creation of more livable communities. >> Currently there is a disconnect between livability goals and existing plans and policies throughout much of the Corridor, where zoning ordinances do not permit compact and sustainable transit-supportive development. >> While the goal of livable communities is emphasized in a variety of regional planning documents, the strongest ability to positively impact livability will be through appropriately-scaled new municipal plans and policies. >> Lake County has higher transportation costs, calculated as a percentage of average household income, than Chicago or the region as a whole.

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ECA CONCLUSION

The Existing Conditions Assessment shows a number of challenges currently affecting livability in central Lake County.

Environmental resources, open areas and agricultural lands are impacted and threatened by development. Population, which has grown dramatically in the last decade, will continue to grow, adding to traffic congestion that delays commuters, diverts traffic and impedes economic growth. As the local regulations and ordinances, are developed independently, without coordination among jurisdictions and without the benefits of a comprehensive coordinated planning, they often encourage more commercial, industrial and retail development than is remotely feasible, prevent the density necessary to support transit, fail to protect natural resources, and encourage unfocused, low-density auto-centric development.

These challenges also impose long term financial costs.

Inefficient infrastructure, including extensive roadways and sewer and utility lines, must be maintained. Stormwater runoff caused in part by the growing amount of impermeable surfaces flood basements and pollutes the groundwater, rivers and streams. Municipal services such as fire, police and emergency services cost taxpayers more when they have to cover large geographic areas. More importantly, public safety can even be affected when those services are delayed by inefficient and congested roadways.

Finally, these challenges impose societal costs. Without livable communities the area may have difficulty retaining its senior citizens as they age in a car-dependent society with a limited range of housing options. Millennials may be more difficult to attract to an area without pedestrian-friendly

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mixed use downtown areas. And the impacts—particularly the environmental impacts--go beyond the Corridor, and affect the whole county, the region and even the country.

“Knowing there is a world that will outlive you, there are people whose well-being depends on how you live your life, affects the way you live your life, whether or not you directly experience those effects. You want to be the kind of person who has the larger view, who takes other people’s interests into account, who’s dedicated to the principles that you can justify, like justice, knowledge, truth, beauty and morality.”

– Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist Although many of these challenges could be made worse by the Route 53/120 roadway, the BRAC Report establishes a unique opportunity to chart a new path for central Lake County. A Corridor Land Use Plan that integrates land use, transportation, economic development and open space can do much to maximize livability in the area. With thoughtful planning, a willingness to carefully balance mobility, land use and environmental issues, and courage to acknowledge and embrace changing realities, the residents of Lake County can confidently look forward to a bright future.

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NEXT STEPS: The analysis process will identify key sites for environmental protection, conservation and enhancement along with sites most likely to undergo significant land use change as a result of the new facility. These sites will inform the selection of Priority Sites by the Land Use Committee. The Priority Sites will be used for further detailed planning and analysis.

This analysis process will be added to the Existing Conditions Assessment document once it is completed.