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6 June 2014 Dublin, Ireland!
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SUMMARY REPORT!
The ‘Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table’ (TERT) took place on 6 June 2014, during Asia Business Week Dublin - an initiative of Dublin City Council and Asia Matters with Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) as academic partner.!
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Following on from the success of prior TERT events in Dublin and Tokyo, this flagship event gathered top economists and business leaders from Ireland, Europe and Asia to engage with one another on the latest developments in EU-Asia economic and trade relations.!
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With Ireland and the EU continuing on a modest path to recovery and with many Asian economies performing well, there has never been a better time to explore the huge growth potential in EU-Asia relations. Multiple trade, investment and partnership negotiations are underway between the EU and its partners across Asia, with the potential to unlock vast business opportunities for growth, employment and innovation for both regions.!
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The conference examined the strategic, economic and business perspectives of key trade issues concerning Asian, European and Irish business leaders and policy makers.!
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The Fifth and Sixth TERTs will take place on 14 & 17 November 2014 in Tokyo and Beijing, respectively.
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About The EU Asia Top Economist Round Table !
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The ‘EU Asia Top Economist Round Table (TERT)’ is a flagship event series organised by Asia Matters in cities across Asia and Europe. The event brings together top economists, business leaders and policy makers from Asia and Europe to engage with one another on the latest developments in EU-Asia economic and trade relations.!
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With the EU on the path to recovery and Asian economies continuing to experience growth, the TERT conference series brings key stakeholders together at a pivotal point in EU Asia relations. Multiple trade, investment and partnership negotiations are underway between the EU and its partners across Asia, TERT aims to analyse the business implications of these agreements. !
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The fourth edition of the one-day C-summit style conference followed the success of previous TERTs in Dublin and Tokyo and featured top speakers from the OECD, Mitsubishi, Infosys, as well as the Irish Foreign Minister and Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister. The fifth and sixth TERT conferences will be held in Tokyo and Beijing in November 2014.!
! ! ! ! About Asia Matters ! !
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Asia Matters is an independent, not for profit, educational and non political think tank based in Dublin focused on the EU Asia business relationship. The Chairman is Alan Dukes, former Irish Minister for Finance.!
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It was founded to: promote understanding of EU Asia economic, trade and cultural relations, assist Irish policymakers and co-operate with governments and with like-minded agencies in the EU and in Asia in the further development of business relations. Asia Matters provides impartial thought leadership via discussion panels, events and publications.!
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Stakeholder exchanges that take place at Asia Matters events can help to shape and accelerate these positive developments. Asia Matters works collectively with and complimentarily to Irish government departments, agencies and business organisations for the national benefit and produces the Ireland Asia Business Yearbook with foreword by the Taoiseach.!
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Opening Session! Martin Murray, Executive Director, Asia Matters, opened proceedings by acknowledging the great support of co-organisers Dublin City Council, academic partner Dublin Institute of Technology, sponsors Air France-KLM and PwC, and all the speakers and delegates taking part in the Fourth EU-Asia Top Economist Round Table (TERT). Mr Murray detailed the origins of Asia Matters as an institution set up to promote stronger EU-Asia business relationships and some of the previous initiatives of Asia Matters, including the TERT events held in Tokyo and Dublin in 2013. Mr. Murray outlined the importance of the EU-Asia business relationship and the significant network of Free Trade Agreements under negotiation across Asia. He brought attention to the Asian Development Bank prediction that Asia will increase its share of Global GDP to 52% by 2050, a further sign why ‘Asia Matters’.!
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Lord Mayor Oisin Quinn welcomed speakers and delegates, highlighting the growing importance of Ireland’s connections with Asian countries and the support that Dublin City provides in building connections across Asia. !
! Keynote presentations ! !
Eamon Gilmore TD, Tánaiste (Deputy Prime Minister), Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, outlined how Asia matters to the global economy and how the region’s economic fortune impacts the EU and especially an open economy such as Ireland. The presentation highlighted the common understanding that “this century will be the Asian century”, full of opportunity and challenges. Mr. Gilmore detailed how Ireland is demonstrating its commitment to building stronger relations with Asia through the recent decision to open three new diplomatic
missions in the region, in Indonesia, Thailand and Hong Kong. !
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Asia is rising. Over the past 20 years, China and India have almost tripled their share of the global economy and increased their absolute economic size almost six times over. Urbanization is continuing apace, currently nine of the ten fastest-growing mega-cities in the world are in Asia. Despite economic challenges over the past decade, the region has been resilient with consistent average annual GDP growth rates in the range of 5pc to 8pc. Asia is not just experiencing economic progress; today, four of the world’s five highest performing education systems are now in Asia, in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and South Korea.!
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The presentation outlined many of the opportunities that lie ahead in EU Asia and Ireland Asia engagement, citing the network of Free Trade Agreements under negotiation, as well as how Irish talent and ‘know how’ may offer solutions to shared challenges. Ireland exported over €15 billion in goods and services to Asia in 2012 and imported close to €8 billion. These figures form a crucial part of an overall export performance that has underpinned Ireland’s economic recovery, and laid the basis for sustained employment growth over the past two years. Asia has much to offer its partners in the EU and Ireland especially, and, equally, Ireland has a huge amount to offer to Asia as economic shifts occur in terms of consumption, key business sector reforms and educational demand rises:!
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“Ireland can offer first class food and agri-products and services, leading financial and legal services, excellent education programmes, world-class high-tech companies, the best location for inward investment in Europe” !
H.E. Bui Thanh Son, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vietnam, opened his presentation by outlining the rising role of Asia in the global economy as it leads the world in terms of economic growth, and accounts for 65% of global foreign reserves and 30% of global GDP.! The presentation outlined the integration of Asia as
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a region with numerous international agreements and forums in which Vietnam plays a pro-active role. Vice Minister Bui stressed the very active role of Vietnam in the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) dialogue process, as it sees it as a valuable platform to engage with partners in Europe.!
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The presentation went on to outline three key shifts taking place across the region (i) reforms are taking place in Vietnam and many Asian economies in order to build the business, human and financial infrastructure and environment for sustainable growth (ii) a vast network of agreements to deepen economic integration are underway across the region including the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), the network of EU FTAs, the Chinese led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the US led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) (iii) the push for greater peace and security across the region as connecting business communities can play a role in sharing expertise, promoting stability and encouraging a stable environment for business to thrive in and a path to sustainable growth. !
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Economic Perspective!
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Session 1 outlined the many economic challenges and opportunities facing the EU and Asia in their interaction with one another. In addition, the session featured analysis of shifting economic power with emerging economies like Indonesia and India playing a greater role in the global economy. !
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Rintaro Tamaki, Deputy Secretary General & Acting Chief Economist, OECD, delivered a presentation on the economic outlook across Asia and the impact that it may have for Europe. His presentation outlined that global growth is rebounding and how trade is picking up in advanced economies, with Asia being a central driver of global growth as real GDP growth continues to outperform the EU average of 1.3%. !
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The presentation highlighted some of the economic challenges facing Europeans such as high unemployment, credit contraction and deflation risk. In addition, Mr Tamaki highlighted the challenges that exist in Asia such as increased financial vulnerability (e.g. credit growth to the private sectors, shadow banking in China). Focusing in on the economic situation in Japan, Mr Tamaki looked at the challenges facing the economy such as deflation, fiscal sustainability, core inflation and the increase of government debt. The presentation emphasised that boosting potential output growth should be a major priority of the global economy as medium and long term projections predict a sharp contraction.!
Figure 1: Contrasting Performances - Real GDP Growth performance in Asia and Europe
Asian Economies
European Economies 12 10 8 6
10 8 6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4 2010
Source: OECD May 2014 Economic Outlook Database
*EMEs = Emerging Middle-Income Economies
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Japan Korea China Other Asian EMEs*
12
Germany France Italy Ireland Euro area
2011
2012
2013
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Dan O’ Brien, Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs, presented on the role of Asia in the global economy highlighting a rebalancing to reflect population distribution. The presentation illustrated some of the major economic shifts in terms of GDP growth with western economies slowing and Asia’s share of global trade and investment growing. Currently, developing Asia represents over 13% of global outward FDI stock. !
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Mr O’Brien outlined some of the strengths and challenges facing Asia in its rapid economic development. In terms of strengths, he listed the regions catch up potential, the opportunity associated with integration, the high savings and investment rate across Asian economies and the rising role played by Asian multi-nationals in the region’s growth. Of the challenges, Mr O’Brien recognized numerous risks including the collapsing of the property bubble in China, vulnerabilities of rapid reform projects under both Prime Minister Abe in Japan and Prime Minister Modi in India, and finally the security issues facing the region with territorial disputes ongoing with actors in North East Asia and South East Asia.!
“…world’s most stable economy of the past 5 years”. Furthermore, the economy is becoming more stable and resilient. Currently, noncommodity exports have a lower share of GDP in Indonesia than in its ASEAN neighbours Malaysia or Thailand. The resource sector’s share of the economy has fallen since 2000 as the country has become less reliant on mining, quarrying, oil, gas and agriculture. Indonesia’s recent growth has been driven in part by productivity increases. In addition, FDI has increased considerably in recent years: in Q1 of 2010 FDI was worth USD$4 billion, while in Q1 of 2014 FDI was worth USD$10.6 billion. !
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Ambassador Havas went on to outline the bright future for the Indonesian economy, citing some predictions from McKinsey & Co. on Indonesia’s economy in 2030. McKinsey predict that by 2030 Indonesia will be the 7th largest economy in the world with a consuming class of 135 million, an urbanised population of 71% producing 86% of GDP and a USD$1.8 trillion opportunity in consumer services, agriculture, fisheries, resources and education. To reach these goals Indonesia will require 113 million skilled workers, which is a key priority of the government in up-skilling the nation’s young population. !
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H.E. Arif Havas Oegroseno, Ambassador of Indonesia to the European Union, opened his presentation by detailing the remarkable scale of the Indonesian economy. Indonesia has a population of 240 million, 90 million of whom are middle class citizens and the average age is 28. It is the largest Muslim democracy with 185 million registered voters and an average turn out of 70%. In 2013, Indonesia’s GDP grew 6% to reach US$1.2 trillion to become the 16 th largest G20 member economy in the world. The ‘Economist’ has dubbed Indonesia the
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“ McKinsey predict that by 2030
Indonesia will be the 7th largest economy in the world with a consuming class of 135 million, an urbanised population of 71% producing 86% of GDP and a USD$1.8 trillion opportunity in consumer services, agriculture, fisheries, resources and education. ”!
H.E. Manjeev Singh Puri, Ambassador of India to the European Union, offered some very interesting insights into the current shifts taking place in India and their implications for India EU Economic Relations. The presentation began by outlining the victory of the new Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and the major impact this had over the Indian economy with major upward shifts occurring in the Indian stock exchange, the value of the Rupee against the dollar, and FDI inflows. The new government is
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working along the mantra of ‘less government, more governance’ and aims ‘to be more result-oriented, target driven and accountable, with no complacency for corruption’.!
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Ambassador Singh began the second section of his presentation by stating that the EU needs to be “a valued and valuable Strategic Partner for India” and detailed the recent history of India EU relations with the summit level meetings beginning in 2000 and this year marking ten years of strategic partnership. He also detailed the dialogue processes covering collaboration in sectors ranging from foreign policy and security, to trade and finance, energy and environment, migration and mobility, research and innovation, education and culture. !
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The EU has long been and remains India’s largest trading partner, while India is the EU’s tenth largest trading partner. Annual trade amounts to nearly €100 billion (goods: €72.70 billion (2013); services: €22.8 billion (2012). The balance of trade is more or less equitable, and was marginally in India’s favour last year (2013). The EU was India’s largest source of FDI equity inflows last year with over US$ 9 billion, while cumulative EU FDI into India is approximately US$ 57 billion for the period 2000-2014, a 25% share of all FDI flows into India in that period. With this level of trade and investment, Ambassador Singh called on both sides to make the most highvisibility and high-impact move to give a final push to the Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement that has been under negotiation since 2007.!
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Ambassador Singh outlined the huge potential economic growth in India with it’s urban population projected to reach 500 million by 2017 and an almost limitless demand for infrastructure in roads, ports, railways, airports and the energy sector
marking it as a clear destination for the global economy. This coupled with the positive shift with Prime Minister Modi’s new government, provides a great opportunity for any serious European player to try and gain “first mover” advantage. !
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“ The EU has long been and remains India’s largest trading partner, while India is the EU’s tenth largest trading partner. Annual trade amounts to nearly €100 billion (goods: €72.70 billion (2013); services: €22.8 billion (2012)” !
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Session 2 focused on the EU Asia relationship from a business perspective, highlighting the experience of global Japanese and Indian giants Mitsubishi and Infosys respectively. The session also featured insights into the Irish economy in comparison to the EU 28 and some of the advantages that Ireland holds for greater trade and investment with Asia. !
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Shinji Kowase, Director, Chief Administration Officer, Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc., shared his considerable experience and expertise with delegates on why Japanese companies continue to invest in Europe. Mr. Kowase presented the overview of Mitsubishi Corporation International and their interests across Europe, where many of the Corporations’ 196 overseas subsidiaries and operations are based. One such subsidiary – Diamond Generating Europe Ltd. – is working on a number of large-scale renewable energy projects with wind farms across France and offshore farms planned for the Netherlands. They also have an extensive network of Photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated (CSP) solar power projects in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy. !
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Other subsidiaries are working on numerous other energy projects such as sub marine power transmission in Germany and the UK, while another subsidiary is developing lithium ion batteries in partnership with Robert Bosch GmbH in Germany. Other operations where
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Figure 2: Mitsubishi has more than 200 Offices & Subsidiaries; over 600 group companies in approximately 90 countries around the world.
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&Head Office: Tokyo! &Number of Offices & Subsidiaries in Japan: 29 (including 17 Annexed Offices)! &Number of Offices & Subsidiaries Overseas: 196 (including 31 Project Offices)
Source: Mitsubishi Corporation, 2013
Mitsubishi is working in Europe relate to core expertise in Bio-technology and Bio-pharmaceuticals in the UK. Further areas where Mitsubishi is looking for opportunities to invest in mature European markets include aviation leasing, an area where Ireland has core expertise. In fact, the Dublin-based MC aviation currently manage 90 aircraft. !
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Mr. Kowase outlined acquisition opportunities in Europe which provide a positive space for investment. Mitsubishi regularly invests in acquiring established brands such as foods, daily necessities, healthcare products, which provide established products and supply chains for potential investors. !
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Fergal O’Brien, Chief Economist & Head of Policy, Ibec, focused his presentation on the opportunities and advantages for potential investors in the Irish economy. He began by providing a very interesting analysis of Ireland’s demographic advantage, citing that Ireland is the only country on earth that has a smaller population now than it had 200 years ago. This unprecedented demographic anomaly is shifting as Ireland is predicted to have the fastest growing population in the EU over the next decade with
double the average EU birth rates and a young population. According to Mr. O’Brien, by 2060 the Irish population will be 50% larger than 2014, while Germany’s population will be 20% smaller and Japan’s will be 33% smaller. This demographic shift will help to underpin Ireland’s economic recovery. !
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In the medium term Mr. O’Brien projected an average growth rate of 3-4%, double the EU average. This growth, coupled with the demographic shifts, will bring great opportunities for Asian capital investment in Ireland. ! Since the downturn, infrastructure investment has slowed considerably in the Irish economy and investment will be required over the medium term. According to Mr. O’Brien, Ireland needs to spend 4% of its GDP on capital investment in infrastructure to prepare Ireland for future growth. This means investment in water Figure 3: Projected population growth in selected EU countries EU27 Ireland UK Germany France
2010 2035 2060 2010 2035 2060 2010 2035 2060 2010 2035 2060 2010 2035 2060
501044000 524537000 3% 516940000 4468000 46.5% 5512000 6545000 62008000 71874000 27.3% 78925000 81743000 23.2% 76478000 66360000 64714000 71345000 13.9% 73724000
Population Growth Source: Eurostat Population Projections 2010-2060
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m a n a g e m e n t , e n e r g y, r o a d infrastructure, education and skills and the health sector. This investment will see a greater focus on Public Private Partnerships, opening up opportunities for investment in Ireland. !
Tactical greenfield investments, landmark acquisitions and steadfast dedication through uncertain 1 economic cycles- key ingredients of the success of European firms in India
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Mr. O’Brien detailed two major growth stories for Ireland:! (i) intensive growth – business b e c o m e s s m a r t e r, productivity rises! (ii) extensive growth – more people, more consumers, more market opportunities.!
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In addition to capital investment, Mr. O’Brien outlined his view that SMEs will be the real driver of economic growth over the next ten years, increasing their linkages across the globe and in key economies in Asia. The SME sector has huge potential and if the right funding and support is made available for SMEs to scale up and develop, Irish SMEs can grow into global players and increase Ireland’s reach in key Asian markets. !
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Dennis Gada, Global Head of Client Services for Financial Services, Infosys, opened his presentation by detailing some of the key points that Figure 4: Why European firms invest in India
Why European firms invest in India
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EU firms are optimistic about the next 5 years, encouraging them to adapt their products and services to the mass market and take a long term view of India
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European firms spent USD 198 bn in India during the last 10 years, making them the largest investors in the same period, Japanese & US firms channelized USD 138 bn & USD 50.7 bn resp. into their India units
make India an attractive investment destination including its strong basic fundamentals, high rate of savings, skilled labour force and its highly dynamic and competitive private sector. !
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He also went on to detail some of the growing export opportunities due to India’s burgeoning middle class, growing domestic consumption levels and skilled workforce. Focusing in on the ICT sector, Mr. Gada highlighted India’s role in the global technology industry, whereby 25 years of outsourcing experience has transformed India from a vendor to a partner role, with key expertise across the sector. !
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The presentation discussed at length some of the key reforms underway to build India’s physical infrastructure and build its reputation as a centre for innovation. India aims to spend over $1 trillion dollars from 2012-2017 on infrastructure to better connect the majorly industrial regions and build 100 smart cities. In addition, 2010-2020 has been dubbed the ‘decade of innovation’ with plans to invest over $1billion in grant schemes and build over 100 innovation hubs across the sub-continent.!
! Domestic market growth potential
Proximity to markets or customer
Skilled workforce availability
The presentation moved its focus onto the linkages between EU/ Irish businesses and India, citing that European firms invest in India to avail of high domestic market potential, the proximity to markets and customers and the availability of skilled labour. In addition, EU firms are optimistic about future growth and are the largest investor in India with USD$198 billion invested over the past 10 years. In the case of Ireland – India business relations, there are over
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30 Irish companies with established offices in India and 100+ companies with substantial and growing interest in the Indian market in areas ranging from IT, Engineering, Construction and Real Estate, agri-business, medical devices, pharmaceuticals and renewable and energy-efficient equipment. A number of MOUs and investment proposals were announced in Nov 2013, many of them in the field of education where Ireland and India have substantial connections. Mr. Gada highlighted that Mr. Narayana Murthy (Infosys Founder and Chairman) is being awarded an honorary degree from Queen’s University Belfast. !
! Trade and Investment Perspective! !
Session 3 outlined the trade and investment perspectives of the EUAsia business relationship. Focusing on the broad network of FTAs and other agreements, the session closely examined the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). It also highlighted the importance of greater political engagement on issues to support a conducive relationship for trade and investment. !
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Gerard Monks, Director - Trade Policy, Department of Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation, opened his presentations by highlighting the significance of Asia to the Irish economy, adding that in 2007 there was one Irish trade mission to Asia, in 2014 there will be 6 or 7 trade missions. He went on to add that the EU FTAs should underpin Irish expansion into Asia. Mr. Monks discussed at length the positive results and prospective outcomes of the network of FTAs currently under negotiation between the EU and its partners in Asia. He highlighted the introduction of investment protection provisions in the agreements with Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam,
Thailand, which will provide a greater impetus for European investors to enter these markets. Mr. Monks focused on the new EU-China Investment Agreement as a key step forward in relations with China, with the considerable reduction of restrictions allowing investors greater control over their finances in their dealings in China. !
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The broader aspect of these agreements, according to Mr. Monks, is the enormous value in tapping into the global value chains that exist in today’s interconnected economies. With the rise of emerging economies, increased transport links and trade agreements, goods are now transferred between multiple points of entry, whereby each point contributes in terms of innovation, manufacturing and services to the product. FTAs such as those between the EU and its partners in Asia encourage global value chains and investment. They are a public policy instrument to wipe away barriers for exporters and allow SMEs a point of entry to global value chains. !
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“ The broader aspect of Free Trade Agreements, is the enormous value in tapping into the global value chains that exist in today’s interconnected economies. ”!
Jun Arima, Director General, JETRO – London, began by detailing Japan’s economic fundamentals, its 8.3% share of global GDP and 4.6% of global trade. The presentation also detailed Japan’s recent economic recovery with GDP growth rising (4.9% in Q1 2014), private consumption rising and a high rate of productivity. Mr. Arima moved on to discuss the fundamentals of the relationship between the EU and Japan with the EU having a trade surplus with Japan. In terms of investment, the EU is currently the top investor in Japan with €68 billion in 2012, while Japan is the third largest investor in the EU, having invested €144 billion in 2011. Remarkably, Japanese firms employ over 465,000 across the EU, with 140,705 employed in the UK alone. ! Mr. Arima expanded on the EU Japan relationship by detailing the major motivations for entering into the EU Japan Economic
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Partnership Agreement (EPA). The EU and Japan have many shared economic values (e.g. market based economy, push for sustainable development), while they also have common challenges (e.g. slow growth, rise of competition in emerging economies, fiscal constraints). The presentation detailed the success of the JapanSwiss EPA as a benchmark citing that investment between both countries has more than tripled in 4 years from 2008-2012.!
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In addition to projected increases in trade and investment, the EPA is seen as offering EU firms greater access to Japan as a gateway to Asia-Pacific markets as Japan will be entering the US-backed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The EPA looks to eliminate non-tariff measures (NTMs) in key sectors (e.g. Automobile, Pharmaceutical/Medical Devices, Food safety), open up government procurement for European companies (following the lead of Veolia, GSK and Siemens who have won large government contracts) and address regulatory issues on both sides. The Japanese government aims to have a basic agreement in place by 2015.! Figure 5: Employment by Japanese companies in Europe UK
140,705
Germany
59,304
Netherlands
58,227
Belgium
38,226
France
25,319
Italy
21,545
Spain
12,848
Others
108,826
Total
465,000
Gerhard Sabathil, Director, North East Asia and the Pacific, European External Action Service, began his presentation by outlining the major challenge that the EU is facing in competing and engaging with 16 countries across Asia – many of them emerging global powers. Dr. Sabathil detailed the recent successful visits to Brussels of Prime Minister Abe and the ambitious targets to reach an agreement. The presentation focused in on the scale of trade relations with China, where more than €1 billion is traded with China everyday mostly in goods with services trade at a very low level. An EU China Investment Agreement is underway and is seen as a key gateway to further engagement and a possible Free Trade Agreement. !
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Dr. Sabhatil detailed the proliferation of FTAs across Asia, calling it a spaghetti bowl of trade connections and agreements. Major shifts are occurring in global trade over the last 10 years – with Asia taking a larger share, currently 10 of the EU’s top 25 trade partners are in Asia – with Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia closing in on the top 25. The EU has very close trade relationships with its 4 strategic partners (China, India, Japan, South Korea) in Asia, as well as ASEAN, a key regional partner. Currently the EU has trade surpluses with developed Asian economies of Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, South Korea. Remarkably, it has a major trade imbalance with China of €131.8 billion and an internal anomaly with 38% of combined EU exports to China coming from Germany alone. Other trade imbalances exist with Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia.! Dr. Sabhatil detailed the current trade developments with 16 separate countries across the Asia-Pacific region. In addition to trade, Dr. Sabhatil outlined the broader approach to promote political stability, regulatory frameworks, rule of law, non-tariff barriers, environmental legislation, human rights and democratic issues across the wider region.
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Partnership and Cooperation Agreements (PCA), Framework Agreements (FA), Free Trade Agreements (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific region Country
State of negotiations
Brunei Darussalam
PCA negotiations launched on 26 April 2012. November 2013. Brunei is interested in a bilateral FTA.
China
PCA negotiations launched in 2007, stalled in 2011. Investment agreement negotiations launched at the EU-China Summit on 21 November 2013.
Indonesia
PCA signed in November 2009 entered into force on 1 May 2014. Preparatory work to define the scope and level of a FTA started.
India
FTA negotiations since 2008, perspectives clearer after the recent elections.
Japan
FA and FTA negotiations were launched on March 2013. 5 round held in June 2014.
Republic of Korea
FA signed on 10 May 2010 and entered fully in force on 1 FTA was signed on 6 October 2010 and applied since 1 July 2011.
Malaysia
PCA negotiations began in 2010. 7th round of negotiations was held in April 2014. FTA negotiations launched in 2010; 7
Mongolia
PCA signed in April 2013, ratification underway.
Philippines
PCA signed on 11 July 2012.Ratification underway. Philippines applied for GSP+ treatment.
Singapore
FTA initialled on 20 September 2013, negotiations on investment protection are on-going.
Thailand
FTA Negotiations launched in March 2013. 4th round took in April 2014.
Vietnam
PCA signed in June 2012.Ratification underway. FTA negotiations launched on 26 June 2012. 8
! ! Conclusion by Conference Chair, Alan Dukes, Chairman, Asia Matters! !
In his concluding remarks, Mr. Dukes thanked the co-organisers – Asia Matters and Dublin City Council, academic partner Dublin Institute of Technology, the sponsors – Air France-KLM and PwC, the affiliated partners, and the excellent speakers for their roles in supporting the success of the Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table and Asia Business Week Dublin. ! He especially thanked the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation and all the supporting government agencies in attendance. !
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Finally, Mr. Dukes reflected on the wealth of knowledge shared during the sessions and encouraged delegates to use these insights to build a better understanding of Asian markets and the developing trends in the EU Asia business relationship. He highlighted the incredible value that a deeper understanding of the business, political and cultural environment can hold for business connectivity between the EU and Asia. Mr. Dukes closed by highlighting the upcoming Asia Matters TERT events in Beijing and Tokyo in November this year.
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Key Points ! Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table!
Network of Free Trade Agreements – it was agreed across the board that the Free Trade Agreements between the EU and its key partners in Asia should underpin a strengthening of business relationships between both sides. It was generally held that ambitious targets for the completion of these agreements should be set and the direct benefits for business should be highlighted. !
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Reforms across Asia – Abe, Vietnam, Modi et al – Asian economies are undergoing key economic reforms with Japan experiencing the impact of Abenomics, India’s new pro-business Prime Minister Modi boosting economic optimism and Vietnam undergoing key infrastructural and policy reforms. With China setting out to reform its financial sector, coupled with the EUChina investment agreement entering negotiations, there are considerable changes happening across Asia to boost growth and business connectivity. !
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Indonesia’s rise – the session heard about the significant rise of Indonesia’s economy, as well as the many opportunities that this holds for potential investors. Currently, there is major potential to boost EU Indonesia trade and investment and, with the Indonesian economy projected to continue growing, opportunities will evolve. In the education sector, Indonesia’s young population and projected skilled labour shortage opens up unique opportunities.!
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Ireland’s opportunity – the session heard of the demographic and economic conditions supporting Ireland’s economic recovery. Ireland holds a positive advantage over many of its EU partners as it is projected for medium term growth twice that of the EU average. Increased investment in infrastructure and SME support should encourage greater capital investment from Asian economies and greater business connectivity across Asia. !
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European recovery and Asia’s rise – an overall trend discussed during the sessions was the need for European economies to continue on their path to recovery and the potential role that a rising Asia could play in this recovery. Europe presents a solid investment for Asian companies and countries, the EU is a mature market in which to test products, build solid partnerships and acquire established companies. Asia on the other hand presents new growth markets for greater trade and investment linkages. The network of FTAs will provide the framework for better business relationships but an understanding of key markets and how to unlock their potential is an essential component to improve EU Asia business connectivity.
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Asia Matters Contacts!
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Martin Murray! Executive Director,! Asia Matters! E: martin.murray@asiamatters.biz! T: +353 87 268 8805!
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Rónán Lenihan ! Director of Operations and Development,! Asia Matters! E: ronan.lenihan@asiamatters.biz! T +353 87 799 2913!
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Stephanie FitzGerald-Smith! Deputy Director of Marketing and Communications, ! Asia Matters,! E: stephanie@asiamatters.biz! T: +353 87 771 4317!
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This document is a summary of the discussions from the “Fourth EU Asia Top Economist Round Table”. The insights shared by speakers at the event are summarised in this report in good faith and accurately reflect the key topics, quotes, facts, figures and charts presented during the conference. This is not investment advice or an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase any financial instruments shares or products. The author and partners to this publication expressly disclaim all liability to any person or corporation in respect of any losses or other claims, whether direct, indirect, incidental, and consequential or otherwise arising in relation to the use of this report as the basis for any investment or other decision or in connection with any advice given to third parties.!
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Special thanks to ! Alan Dukes, Chairman, Asia Matters! Tom Hardiman, Chairman, Chester Beatty Library! PwC and Air France KLM! Members of the Asia Business Week Dublin Advisory Group ! Dublin City Council ! Dublin Institute of Technology! All Associate Partners!
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