Issue 92 October 2015 Lite by Asian Private Banker

www.asianprivatebanker.com

Independent, Authoritative, Indispensable

ASIAN PRIVATE BANKER OCTOBER 2015 • ISSUE 92

OCTOBER IN NUMBERS

3 or fewer 50% 15-20% 33%

The average size of fund teams at private banks, pg 6 What private banks typically get as rebate from fund management fees, pg 8 Not uncommon for mainland CTA to generate such returns, pg 13 Level that flow volumes of structured products fell to in August, pg 17

RONALD

LEE

“The fee-based portion... has gone from 10% four years ago to about half of our business.”

OCTOBER 2015

CONTENTS 3

Letter from the Editor Full speed ahead

Editorial The Scoop: How UBS conquered Asia and other stories

APB On-the-Spot Online poll results

APB Mandate 6

Crow’s Nest: Asian selection handcuffed

Fund Selection: A hazy trailer-free Asia

12 Fund Selection: Inorganic platform buildout here to stay 13 China: Futures no longer a thing of the past

People Straight Talk: Ronald Lee, head of Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management, Asia Pacific

Structured Products The rise and fall of structured products

Structured Products Can automation replace human experts?

Structured Products FX focus offers alternative route to structured products

Technology Robo-advisers byting on in Asia

People Moves Movers & Shakers

PUBLISHER Andrew Shale EDITOR Shruti Advani ASSOCIATE EDITOR Vince Chong EDITORIAL Richard Otsuki, Priyanka Boghani, Tom Wan, Gregory Taylor (contributor)

MANAGING DIRECTOR Paris Shepherd OPERATIONS

DIGITAL DIRECTOR Tristan Watkins

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT Madhuri Chatterjee, Sonia Lam, Michael Chan

PRODUCTION DG3

Benjamin Yang, Sam Chan

PUBLISHED BY KEY POSITIONING LIMITED 1205 The Dominion Centre, 43-49 Queen’s Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong Tel: +852 2529 5577 Fax: +852 3013 9984 Email: info@asianprivatebanker.com

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DESIGN Simon Kay

ISSN NO. 2076-5320

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

Full speed ahead

he next three months are possibly the busiest period of the year at Asian Private Banker – I will spend most of them cloistered in boardrooms with the CEOs of every significant private bank in the region as they pitch for our Awards for Distinction. We will also host five events in Hong Kong and Singapore while continuing to publish proprietary data products and breaking news. It is heartening then, to see that we are only just keeping pace with the industry – the next three months are a race to the finish for these banks and their managers to meet targets and set new ones. Some banks have shone and some have had to go back to the drawing board. We will spend some time and considerable energy on separating the former from the latter, starting with this month’s analysis in The Scoop as well as Crow’s Nest. Taking the aforementioned focus on data further, we have also taken a close look – by talking to over ten private banks across Asia – at how technology and headcount can co-exist for structured product teams. An understanding of how many people staff these teams is perhaps the best dipstick indicator of how this business is developing. And ever since first Switzerland and then the European Union banned retrocession or trailer fees from mutual fund distribution, speculation has been rife on whether Hong Kong and Singapore would follow suit. In A hazy trailer-free Asia, we talk to gatekeepers at private banks across both jurisdictions on what plans, if any, they have made for a retrocession-free world. Thank you for all the feedback on the last issue, some of it made me smile, some of it didn’t. All of it made me think. For those of you I have met before, it should come as little surprise that every time you make a suggestion, it is keenly debated at our weekly editorial meetings. For the uninitiated, join the debate by mailing your comments to editor@ asianprivatebanker.com. I look forward to hearing from you. Until we meet again,

Shruti Advani Editor Asian Private Banker

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EDITORIAL

How UBS conquered Asia and other stories

hat Kathy wants, Kathy gets. I’m talking of course about Kathy Shih, group managing director and CEO of wealth management Asia Pacific, UBS. Proof of just how much clout the lady wields at the Zurich-based headquarters of the world’s largest private bank, appeared in the form of both Sergio Ermotti and Juerg Zeltner, respectively UBS group CEO and president of wealth management, standing literally, and metaphorically, by her side at events in both Singapore and Hong Kong. It helps that Asia is the single largest contributor to the group’s profits – accounting for between 25-30% – and that the franchise continues to tower over the gaggle of private banks that vie for visibility in Asia. Not surprising then, that nearly

two-thirds of net expenditure for the private bank is made in Asia, with the majority of allocations being made to content, research and asset management. Zeltner himself has confirmed in a previous conversation with this publication that, notwithstanding the investment into Asia, the cost/income ratio is at 60% and “we spin out a profit margin of 30-40%.” If the planeload of senior management flying to Asia at Kathy’s invitation didn’t elicit envy amongst peers, those statistics certainly will.

CHANGING LANES

So much has already been made of investment bankers who change tracks to become private bankers (I am convinced this is not always a matter of choice). I know Credit Suisse, Deut-

UBS global heads and guests at a recent event in Hong Kong (from left): Kathy Shih, head of wealth management, Asia Pacific; Ulrich Körner, president of UBS global asset management and president of Europe, Middle East and Africa; Andrea Orcel, president of the investment bank and chief executive for UBS Ltd and UBS AG London branch; Sergio Ermotti, group CEO, UBS AG; Erwin Lüthi, acting consul-general of Switzerland to Hong Kong; Axel A Weber, chairman of the board of directors UBS AG; Chi-won Yoon, president of UBS APAC; Dr Charles CK Yeung, chairman of The Glorious Sun Holdings Ltd; Juerg Zeltner, president of UBS wealth management; and Amy Lo, head of wealth management, Greater China

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EDITORIAL

sche Bank and a few others pride themselves on the quantity and – one would hope – quality of veteran investment bankers swarming their private banks. It is only fair then, that we acknowledge when the reverse happens – especially if it happens with some degree of success. Stephane Honig, ex-head of wealth management, India, and Non Resident Indian business at BNP Paribas, moved to the investment bank’s global markets arm, where he was made head of sales for wealth management and family offices in Asia Pacific. Since then, he has established credibility with the same investment bankers who decried private bankers as lightweights in expensive suits. Kudos Honig, but could this be the start of a trend? For the sake of an already talent-starved industry, one hopes not. Speaking of BNP Paribas, those of you who thought Michel Longhini and Rajesh Malkani would renew any bond they may have established during their overlapping years at the French bank, would have been piqued by news of Malkani’s resignation from Standard Chartered as the private bank’s regional head of MENAP, Africa and South Asia. But, Standard Chartered’s loss may not yet be UBP’s gain; industry sources insist

Malkani is “weighing all his options” and has not signed up with another bank yet. October is bound to be a time of some trepidation at Deutsche Bank – new CEO John Cryan has promised to present the bank’s future strategy by the end of the month. At least two headhunters that I can think of have tried to “reach out to” private bankers at the bank’s asset and wealth Management arm and returned empty handed. Either these would-have-been candidates have very strong nerves or they believe that the recent changes of management at the bank could lead to revived momentum for its wealth management business. My money’s on the latter. It would not surprise me if the wealth management business gets pushed front and centre even as the new CEO quite literally cuts the investment banking business down to size. Routing additional funding to businesses that were the reason behind BaFin’s (Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) recent ire with the bank is probably not great for optics. That money – almost US$900 million of it, according to some news reports – would be much better spent on continuing the technological upgrades already begun on its wealth management platform.

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EDITORIAL

Asian selection handcuffed Fund revenues and penetration rates are rising across Asia’s private banking industry as self-directed trading appetites trend downward. But selectors in the region remain handcuffed in building autonomous fund platforms despite seeing such recurring income rise on the back of some US$15.8 trillion – and growing – in wealth owned by 4.7 million individuals. With the help of APB Mandate research, we look here at the most pressing constraints to building funds catered to Asia’s richest. CONTROL CENTRE RULES

Selection at many fund platforms in Asia – applicable to nearly half of private banks in Hong Kong and Singapore – continue to be driven by colleagues in London, New York, Zurich or other foreign headquarters. In conversations with gatekeepers in the region, effectively 100% believed there was a near-zero chance that Home Base would entertain a fund request due to one, a lack of global scalability or two, skewed bias towards servicing home markets. While bulge bracket foreign private banks in Asia such UBS or Credit Suisse are among the few that have autonomous selection in the region, numerous Asian platforms continue to reflect foreign investor preferences more so than those of locals. While certain families of plain vanilla products on platforms are applicable to most global portfolios, such as a simple long-only US fund, the success of advisory businesses often depend significantly on finding a match for Asian HNW needs. Hence, a foreign-flavoured platform would not suffice. For example, European clients may be satisfied with portfolio yields as low as 3-4% – a significant bump from near-zero or negative yields of the European government bonds – yet this would hardly satisfy

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a Chinese client who could easily find the same 4% in a regular yuan time deposit.

SIBLING INFLUENCE

The picture for autonomous selection is not any more upbeat even for local houses in Asia without foreign home bases. Numerous private banks in the region have a sister consumer bank that both share and compete for resources. The obvious advantage of such a set-up is the sharing or exporting of operational costs, often to the retail arm, in areas such as compliance or selection of basic plain vanilla funds. But similar to some of their foreign counterparts, local private banks lack the scale to justify the selection of products that specifically cater to HNW needs and the last

call often sits with the retail bank, as is the case with almost a third, or 32%, of private banks in the region. Client compatibility is not the only issue in the dilemma. Retail bankers in Hong Kong and Singapore – while expectedly less sophisticated than private bankers – still struggle to build comfort even in products authorised for distribution to the general public. As one Hong Kong-based head of advisory tells us, her bank’s private banking operations were confident that the onboarding of a UCITS III fund or liquid alternative would benefit both retail and HNW portfolios. But this hit a wall when the retail agenda came into play. Bankers from the consumer unit, she says, just did not “get” the sales and marketing of liquid alternatives and so, a decision was made not to onboard a liquid alternative due to risks of limited inflows, poor client perception and compromising service quality. Further, gatekeepers in such setups will often service both the private and retail banks, causing selection to be naturally skewed toward wherever scale lies.

GATEKEEPING OVERLOAD

But even without considering organisational constraints, the reality on the ground is that fund teams are thin and

EDITORIAL

selection often have to take a backseat to revenue generating activities like sales and marketing, even if the product is not a perfect match. In a poll with 28 gatekeepers in Asia, 58% of private bank fund teams said they had three or fewer staff. Within this group of respondents, most don’t expect to add more than one or two individuals within the next year, if at all. For the few sizable players in the market, they have the luxury of hiring for dedicated roles in selection, distribution and platform management. For most though, many wear different hats for different days and when bosses dial up the pressure to boost profits, be it for legitimate or shorttermist reasons, sales overrides all.

ON THE OTHER HAND

Despite the handcuffs however, things could still change to shift foreign-driven selection to Asia. 1. Foremost of these perhaps, lies in the launch of uniquely local products. This is helped by the fact that certain managers covering Asian markets out of foreign bases, be it in Edinburgh or Dublin, perform relatively well against counterparts managing portfolios on the ground. This is particularly the case for portfolios managing blue chip equities, given the relative efficiency and thorough coverage by banks of select markets. But should the shelf expand to include local strategies that can’t be easily replicated – be it due to lack of market access or coverage – such as RMB money market funds or sector-specific funds invested in the region, heads of selection sitting in the west will undoubtedly take notice. If the success of Ant Financial’s launch of its money market fund, Zeng Libao or Yu’E Bao, is any indicator – the fund tripled its assets under management last year to US$93 billion – this is a space that can’t be ignored.

One such catalyst will be the success of various fund passport regimes in the region, such as the Mutual Recognition Fund (MRF) scheme between Hong Kong and mainland China. 2. Also, a shift of retail-driven selection to private banks in Asia, could occur earlier than the aforementioned. Product distributors in the region are already facing cost pressures due to growing spending in compliance and other areas, and the local disposition is that trailer fees is what keeps businesses afloat (read more on page 8). But the banning of such practices in foreign jurisdictions like Australia and the UK is quietly generating noise about similar moves being implemented in Hong Kong and Singapore, albeit at a very gradual pace. Should this occur, the need to make up for lost revenue from rebates will most likely be fulfilled by feebased advice and some believe that these costs may not be affordable for retail clients, which may then drastically shift fund-related resources at banks to their HNW businesses. “Material changes in the distribution chain as a result of regulatory reform may lead to certain distributors not finding distribution

profitable,” said a report by the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) earlier this year. “This may lead them to focus on distributing funds only to more profitable client segments such as high net worth clients who can afford to pay for advice, rather than to less wealthy retail clients who may not want to pay since the fee may appear large compared to their personal income.”

PROSPECTS STILL BRIGHT

As it is, improved financial sophistication and product knowledge has helped private banks increase fund penetration rates to as high as 20+% at certain private banks in Asia. It really wasn’t until 2000 that the concept of diversification through funds took off with the launch of retirement schemes such as Hong Kong’s mandatory provident fund. Fund penetration rates then, said an Asia head of a global asset manager recently, was a mere 2-5%. Clearly, proven scale is the only viable justification for ramping up Asia-based selection and the players that qualify are far and few between: only 17 private banks have Asia AUMs of US$20 billion or more, the approximate break-even point.

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A hazy trailer-free Asia Private banks insist that they can’t just absorb a banned trailer but a sure solution is far from being found.

nboarding new products at a private bank can take anywhere between three to six months, not to mention the subsequent process of marketing them to relationship managers and clients, making it imperative to contemplate long and hard to avoid new launches that result in meagre inflows. And should regulators abolish trailer fees, this prudent mentality will be furthered magnified. While it may still be early days to sound the alarms and fully tackle the ramifications of abolished retrocession fees in Hong Kong and Singapore, private banks in the region ponder about the implications of a trailer-free future.

REPRICING REVOLUTION?

on whether or not clients would be willing to pay higher transaction-based fees instead. And luring distributors and investors may not be the only motivation for fee adjustments. Closet trackers, too, will face pressures as management fee scrutiny exposes their lack of active management.

The majority of private banks in the region (54%) receive approximately half of a typical fund’s management fee as rebate

According to the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), trailer fees paid to distributors range between 40-70% of management fees in Hong Kong and 45-65% in Singapore. A poll done by “The most difficult transition (from a trailer-free environment) this publication with 38 Asia-based gatekeepers revealed that will be for semi-active funds as their lower active management on average, the majority of private banks in the region (54%) does not generally justify their higher management fees compared receive approximately half of a typical fund’s management fee to ETFs,” said Rodolphe Larqué, head of funds and ETFs at Credit as rebate. Suisse’s private banking arm in Asia, earlier this year. Banning trailer fees would result in a 50-odd basis point “These semi-active strategies will face serious obstacles, but allocation that could either be retained as revenue by fund I believe it is all about pricing. Managers will need to find the houses or exported as saved costs to end-investors. Private equilibrium between the 10bps of passive funds and the 100+ banks insist on the latter. bps of active funds.” “When trailer fees become banned in Hong Kong one day, it will be on the fund house to adjust their subscription AVERAGE MANAGEMENT FEE PAID AS TRAILER FEE fee and management fee models because it is unlikely to make clients pay more 50% Private banks in Asia [for advisory],” says Belle Liang, head of investment advisory at Hang Seng. “The purpose is more about investor Distributors in Singapore 45% 65% protection and asset managers will have to work with distributors to decide on a new fee structure.” Other gatekeepers have expressed simDistributors in Hong Kong 30% 70% ilar views calling upon asset managers to restructure their fees given the 50bps leeway they can afford, without banking

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FUND SELECTION

NOT ALL ROSY FOR INVESTORS EITHER Although the abolishment of retrocession fees is meant to benefit investors via cheaper fees and more independent advice, it might just not turn out that way. For one, onlookers lament about the concentration of different private bank’s client assets in the same few funds due to the pricing advantage larger asset managers have when distributing rebates. Though it remains to be seen how price-sensitive Asian clients are and the boost in volumes that would result from a fee cut, a trailer-free future would merely shift pricing wars from rebate negotiations to management fee negotiations, giving the same advantage to bulge bracket asset managers. Secondly, fund teams at private banks will be further strapped for resources, which could impact the quality (or quantity) of platforms and selection by straining the already scant teams of gatekeepers in the industry. Nearly 60% of private banks in Asia currently house three or less gatekeepers, according to APB Mandate research, with a good number of platforms run by a single individual covering a multitude of product types and asset classes. As for private banks depending on selection driven by a foreign headquarter, they may well kiss goodbyes to their wishes to shift autonomy into Asia as bosses abroad will not take the haircut lightly and their clients in the region can continue to expect local demand to be neglected.

Nearly 60% of private banks in Asia currently house three or less gatekeepers

may not be applicable in profile mandates for a broader client base, such as niche country-specific funds that are unlikely to appeal to the wider regional market. In response, private banks are either strengthening or considering launching active advisory offerings in Asia. In March 2014, UBS launched its flat-fee portfolio screening system in the region, UBS Advice, which monitors portfolios and proposes investment advice based on a client’s chosen strategy and the UBS house view. In the two years since launching in Zurich, the offering has raised US$22 billion globally. “One of the ways to make up for lost revenue should trailer fees be abolished is to grow flat-fee businesses, keeping in mind how hands-on clients can be in Asia,” said Jaye Chiu, head of investments at EFGAM, in a recent conversation with this publication. “In light of this, EFG is looking to launch a new active advisory offering.”

OFFSETTING TRAILER FEES WITH FLAT FEES

The standard motivations for building a fee-based business – generating stable and recurring income, mitigating compliance risks and strengthening relationships – are on their own already sufficient. Abolished trailer fees will just add to the list. Private banks have already been working long and hard to bolster their discretionary assets in Asia with many claiming double-digit growth. Both Crédit Agricole Private Banking and Credit Suisse told this publication that their discretionary assets have increased 20% year-on-year, while DPM penetration rates at pure plays in Asia, such as Pictet, have reached as high as 20%. But aside from the still gradual growth of DPM in Asia – APB Mandate estimates an average penetration rate of 7% in the region – banks will still need to consider satellite trades that

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FUND SELECTION

THE UNAPPARENT WINNERS In conversations with gatekeepers at Asia’s private banks, there is a sort of weariness that comes with talking about banning inducements. The current state of growing, but still limited, willingness to pay for advice amid high costs of distribution is gloomy enough a matter to consider. But there is a positive post-ban scenario for private banks that has gone unnoticed by many. “Material changes in the distribution chain as a result of regulatory reform may lead to certain distributors not finding distribution profitable,” said the SFC in a report earlier this year. “This may lead them to focus on distributing funds only to more profitable client segments such as high net worth clients who can afford to pay for advice, rather than to less

ALREADY IN PLAY

Some private banks have already made quiet efforts to be retrocession-free. DPM is undoubtedly one such offering where the move is plausible, given the relative size of pooled assets. For example, UBS Wealth Management’s discretionary mandates only use retrocession-free institutional share classes of funds. “[T]his addresses concerns over instrument conflicts of interest and concerns over instrument cost differences,” says Sean Cochrane, UBS managing director and head of portfolio specialists, Asia Pacific. Elsewhere, such as at Crédit Agricole Private Banking, trailer fees have been ditched altogether. The bank decided two years ago to make “a strict decision at the group level not to negotiate trailer fees with fund houses any more.” “In Asia, the business of trailer fees is still quite large but this may create a conflict of interest,” notes Pascal Meilland, head of discretion portfolio management, Asia, at the French private bank.

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wealthy retail clients who may not want to pay since the fee may appear large compared to their personal income.” By the SFC’s hypothesis, private banks that share fund distribution costs with a sister consumer bank, such as Standard Chartered Private Bank or DBS Private Bank, could receive a larger chunk from the respective banking groups’ war chests. Efforts made by banks with a strong local retail presence to make paid advice the new norm will naturally benefit the region’s private banking industry. In addition, asset managers may be incentivised (and loaded with an extra 50bps) to focus on developing servicing platforms that specifically cater to private banks and HNWIs, rather than mass retail distribution, be it in training, aftersales support or research.

Private banks that share fund distribution costs with a sister consumer bank, such as Standard Chartered Private Bank or DBS Private Bank, could receive a larger chunk from the respective banking groups’ war chests

“Our job as wealth managers should be to manage the portfolios in the best interest of our clients and not to shop around for the best trailer fee arrangement. Our view is that this practice will disappear and Asia will adapt the same standard as jurisdictions in the west.”

FUND SELECTION

Inorganic platform buildout here to stay Although private banks in the region are ramping up efforts to boost their fund businesses, full suite organic buildouts are far and few between and it does not seem likely to change anytime soon.

und businesses at private banks in Asia have experienced stellar growth in recent years and in select cases, penetration rates have exceeded 20%. But yet to be achieved is the critical mass required to justify material growth in product or asset class coverage, especially in light of other growing overhead costs most notably in compliance. The use of external providers appears to be more than just a short-term fix to expediently meet growing demand.

THREE’S NOT A CROWD

Currently, an estimated 62% of private banks in Asia use third party providers in some shape or form for their funds businesses in addition to products. Be it in research, advisory, asset allocation or even just to conduct operational due diligence on a single product, private banks are increasingly turning to external providers for requests that can’t be handled internally either due to lack of capabilities or resource constraints.

For example, private banks in Asia that lack in-house hedge fund capabilities are turning outwards for help to launch offerings as Asian HNWIs warm up to the product, due to improved perception about transparency and global market volatility. In the first seven months of the year, Lyxor’s Asia business added three private banks to its platform in addition to the 50% growth in hedge fund inflows sourced from HNWIs in the region. The French hedge fund platform aims to add an additional five distributors including potential newcomers from China. “Historically, it was mostly global players which have had hedge fund offerings but we are increasingly witnessing Asia-headquartered wealth managers looking to introduce alternatives for the first time,” says Andrew Au, head of Asia ex-Japan, Lyxor. “Many of these banks have a strong local consumer banking base and with the wealth growth accelerating the way it is, these banks want to have a more comprehensive offering for accounts that are newly upgraded to the private bank.” And in mutual funds, the needs of Asia-based private banks stretch beyond conducting due diligence, to expanding fund recommendation lists, outsourcing monitoring of broader coverage lists, building fund of funds strategies for discretionary offerings and more.

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“We expect the partial or the fully outsourced models to supporting fund research, due diligence and advisory to continue to grow; driven mainly by regulatory oversight, increased need for efficient allocation of resourcing, and adaption of technology,” says Shihan Abeyguna, head of business development, Southeast Asia, Morningstar, who adds that private banks are even beginning to request for expert insights on onshore fund markets like China, Korea or India. Steven Seow, head of wealth management, Asia, at Mercer says that as more banks turn toward forward-looking qualitative analysis, “it makes sense to subscribe to our research as it is very time-consuming, hence costly to build this out in-house.” “[Also], regulatory spotlight on how banks risk profile their clients and recommend the right investment products has led to more banks engaging us to review, validate and enhance their existing frameworks in client risk profiling and product risk rating,” he adds.

NOT JUST COSTS

The bottom line is not the only consideration that is preventing in-house buildouts. Staff turnover poses a legitimate threat to private banks that might be relying on one or a few specialists to cover an asset class like hedge funds, not only due to the potential volume of queries directed to remaining staff but also due to the specificity of expertise in certain asset classes. Both gatekeepers and search consultants say that the two-to-three year mark is fair timing for staff to start looking around. And with asset and wealth management growing as it is, the opportunities extend beyond just moving from one private bank to another, and to fund houses or external asset managers. For example, UBS Securities’ former China head of wealth management, Kueh Tan-Yuan moved to BlackRock in August last year as its head of private banking business and strategic client development for Asia ex-Japan. One month later, the ex-Asia head of investments at EFGAM, Harmen Overdijk, left to set up Caidao Wealth in partnership with Caidao Capital, a Hong Kong-based private equity firm. Banks founded in the region have long focused on brokering plain vanilla local offerings, with a focus on pricing, says one veteran banker. But given the current market dynamics - low yields, political reforms and structural changes in global economies - portfolios will not be able to replicate the same past scenario whereby a client could beat the house view with just five stocks, he notes. But regardless of whether infrastructure is engineered in-house or externally, global diversification is now a requirement more than an option, necessitating even local players to build asset allocation, product platforms and advice with a global perspective.

CHINA

Futures no longer a thing of the past CTA strategies – or managed futures strategies – are gaining momentum among Chinese high net worth individuals and private banks in the country, says the general manager of fund manager Fortune SG’s Hong Kong business.

“

With return/return profile matching investors’ appetite, they are getting more and more enthusiastic about these products,” Stephane Roger tells Asian Private Banker. “Since the beginning of the year, as of August, CTA strategies in China have recorded a compounded performance in the 7-8% range, while other CTA markets have either recorded neutral or negative performances.” Fortune SG, a joint venture between Chinese conglomerate Baosteel Group and French asset management house Lyxor Asset Management (AM), is seeing increasing interest from HNWIs for its onshore CTA trend-following strategies, hedge fund strategies that invest in China’s listed futures market using quantitative models. While the last two months have somehow muddied the picture with the country’s equity market rout spooking investors and spurring a flight to safety, demand for these strategies has been on a steady rise over the past three years, adds Roger, who took charge of Fortune SG Hong Kong a year ago while heading quantitative asset management in Asia for Lyxor, a position that he still occupies to this day. The Hong Kong arm does not manage or market CTA on the mainland, which are spearheaded by the group’s Chinese operations. The CTA strategies managed by Fortune SG have raked in CNY2.3 billion in assets under management since their launch in 2012. In 2015 alone, Fortune SG secured six new CTA mandates, although it does not split them into client or bank types.

GREATER RETURNS

What is clear is that these strategies have been well received by Chinese clients

keen to add an alternative investment component to their investment portfolios often dominated by equity holdings, Roger says. Fortune SG secured earlier this year a mandate with a city investment fund, he adds, a development that speaks to how these strategies are gaining traction in China even among institutions with historically a very traditional investment approach. “Chinese investors appear to have, as a whole, a bigger risk appetite than investors in other parts of the world,” says Roger. “A 5-6% performance objective is not attractive to a Chinese investor.” That bodes well for onshore CTA strategies. “These strategies are more volatile than other hedge fund strategies, but, on the flip side, they are able to generate greater returns than most,” he adds “It is not uncommon for CTA strategies to generate returns in the 15-20% range.” Investing in managed futures provides an additional degree of “decorrelation” compared to other hedge fund strategies, he adds. If all alternative investment strategies pride themselves on delivering “absolute performance”, not all exhibit the same level of “decorrelation” with equity and bond markets. “Long Short Equity funds, for instance, remain highly correlated to equity markets, and have a tendency to move in lockstep with them,” says Roger. CTAs, on the other hand, “exhibit low to negative correlations with other traditional asset classes in particular,” he continues. These managed future strategies have also proved attractive to clients Stephane Roger, Fortune SG because they offer a gateway to

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CHINA

otherwise-difficult-to-access asset classes. Apart from investing across a range of traditional asset classes – commodities, indexes, bonds – these strategies have the ability to invest in a wide array of lesser-known asset classes, including steel rebars, eggs, or rice futures. That has struck a chord with investors. “It allows them to invest in some asset classes they would not invest by themselves simply because they don’t know them,” Roger says. Also underpinning the growing popularity of these CTA strategies among the wealthy and private banks has been the high liquidity of these strategies. Because CTAs invest exclusively in listed futures traded on exchanges rather than in obscure derivatives, these strategies are extremely liquid, challenging the widespread belief that hedge funds are necessarily opaque and illiquid. CTA funds remain amongst the most liquid alternative investment funds, and investors are able to redeem their investments, Roger says.

GLOBAL POTENTIAL

The mainland CTA market seems to be charting its own course, as if operating in a vacuum. In sharp contrast to its global counterparts, the mainland listed futures market is heavily skewed toward commodities. Commodity futures accounted for 85% of the overall volume of contracts traded on mainland exchanges in July 2015, according to China Insurance Regulatory Commission statistics.

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While pension funds, endowments, and other institutions the world over took years to warm up to the idea of investing into these strategies, Chinese institutions and high net worth individuals have been relatively quick to jump on the CTA bandwagon, Roger says, adding however that they were still on an “educational curve.”

It’s not uncommon for CTA strategies to generate returns in the 15-20% range

While the onshore CTA market remains nascent in China, with Chinese investors just starting to show interest in CTAs investments, some offshore investors, including global CTA managers themselves, have been looking into ways to enter this market for quite some time now, Roger notes. It remains still to this day, however, off-limits to them. Their interest is understandable. Not only does the fledgling CTA market offer solid performance opportunities, it also brings an additional layer of diversification to those already invested into global CTA strategies, he notes.

PEOPLE

Straight Talk:

Ronald Lee, head of Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management, Asia Pacific Four years into the job, Ronald Lee, the 47-year-old head of Goldman Sachs’ regional private wealth management business tells Asian Private Banker how the bank is dealing with changing mindsets among its ultra high net worth-only clientele, how it chooses its hires and if China’s current volatility is here to stay. APB: Growth in China is slowing, the stock market’s taken a hit and the yuan currency is becoming more flexible and hence more volatile. What kind of advice are you giving clients these days? RL: Be diversified, be liquid, be consistent and don’t try to time the market. Be very patient and think of returns in the long run. It is a new way of looking at things for many of our Chinese clients because the macro environment has changed. APB: Consequently, asset allocations must have changed, or is in the process of changing. RL: Today, we see more client demand in discretionary type mandates and wealth management. When I joined the business four years ago, traditional wealth management, diversified portfolios and balanced asset allocation strategies were not very compelling to Chinese clients. When clients asked about the rates of return from a diversified portfolio and we said 6-8%, they’d tell us they got over 30% returns from their business. They also didn’t see the reason to invest in dollar assets. Just four years ago, compared with the US and Europe, China seemed like a very safe place. Fast forward to today and growth in our clients’ businesses has slowed. The convergence of all these factors have made clients and prospective clients much more open to engage with us on conversa-

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PEOPLE

If you look at longer-term trends of higher quality but slower economic growth, more currency flexibility and demographic changes, these factors could impact our clients and prospective clients for a long time, at least five to 10 years

tions about wealth preservation, family planning and succession planning. APB: How has the discretionary mandate part of the business changed? RL: Our business is divided into brokerage and the more discretionary fee-based assets. The fee-based portion, under a broad definition, has gone from 10% four years ago to about half of our business. Overall, our business has been expanding but the feebased part has been growing more significantly. APB: Are these factors linked to slowing growth and volatility here to stay, or is this simply a blip on China’s growth path? RL: If you look at longer-term trends of higher quality but slower economic growth, more currency flexibility and demographic changes, these factors could impact our clients and prospective clients for a long time, at least five to 10 years. It is easier now to get Chinese clients to have a conversation about this changing mindset. APB: Your clients are UHNWIs with more than US$100 million in investible assets and an average account size of US$50 million. What are your targets in growing the business in terms of AUM and headcount? RL: We will continue to grow our mindshare and wallet share among the ultra-high-worth. We don’t have a target for the number of bankers and that has to do with our business model. We are exclusively focused on UHNW clients and the quality of the client relationship is the most important.

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APB: That brings us naturally to your business model in Asia. Where is your key focus and how are you going about it? RL: We are focused on Greater China, which is consistent with the opportunities in the region and also with the firm’s strategy. We have an integrated, global approach to private wealth management. The clients that we target tend to have interests that are of relevance to the other parts of the firm, and we connect them with people in other divisions when appropriate. We also want to be as close to the market as possible. We have increased the number of bankers in Shanghai and Beijing to ensure that we’re more local than our global competitors. We’ve also hired more people in Southeast Asia. APB: How do you pick your bankers? RL: We view people as our greatest asset and take special care in selecting them and investing in their professional development. In Asia, our new hires are currently about 60% lateral and 40% from schools. Over the next five years that will reverse to 30-40% from other firms, and 60-70% from schools.

In Asia, our new hires are currently about 60% lateral and 40% from schools. Over the next five years that will reverse to 3040% from other firms, and 60-70% from schools

APB: How do you bring in lateral hires? How much business should they bring over? RL: We have a different approach to selecting bankers. The traditional way is to look at their books and how much they can bring over. We look at that only as a metric that the banker was able to do it at another bank. But we assume that the banker is coming over with zero, and from that we ask if the person has the skills to build the business on our platform, with our approach.

STRUCTURED PRODUCTS

The rise and fall of structured products After what was a bumper year for structured products in Asia with sales surging by 13% in 2013 and 2014, the market has had to withstand undulating macroeconomic conditions this year. We take a look at this trajectory.

eads of structured products at private banks and investment banks have been kept on their toes this year. Milestones like Grexit, the Hang Seng Index hitting a seven-year high, the more recent Asia market volatility and the impending US Federal Reserve rate hike have seen to that. It started well enough. “The first half of 2015 was excellent for structured products,” says Roger Meier, head of structured products sales Asia, Julius Baer, citing the then-strong performance of the European market as well as forecast euro depreciation (the euro hit an 11-year low against the dollar after the European Central Bank unleashed a huge bond-buying programme). Investors were also shifting focus to European underliers from traditional US equities. Krisztina Anspach, head of cross asset solutions Asia, ex Japan, at BNP Paribas concurs on the distribution end. Traditionally low allocations to European equity-linked notes (ELNs) also picked up at the start of 2015, growing by a third from below 10% in recent years, she notes. Further, oil-linked notes were boosted as the 30-day historical volatility of the BCOM index rose from 6% to 8% last year, with oil price volatility shooting up from 15% to 50% in the past six months. In addition, positive sentiment from the launch of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect and the substantial A-shares rally at the end of 2014 also spilled over into 2015. Clients were showing interest in thematic baskets in China and CNY-related products, bankers say. Chinese HNW clients were also pumped up by the loosening of the 20,000 yuan daily conversion cap, which was seen as a step towards the internationalisation of the currency. “Chinese clients are more receptive to CNY and can have 20-30% of their portfolio in CNY products, while overseas investors may have 5-10%,” Rocky Cheung, DBS Private Bank’s head of investment advisory, Hong Kong told this publication in February. Volumes of structured products reached its zenith in April and May along with the Hang Seng Index soaring by 707.53 points, or 2.7%, to a seven-year high. The last time it surged like this was in 2007 – just before capital markets crashed in the global financial crisis of 2008. “In light of the Hong Kong and Chinese markets rally between end of March and May, clients started to focus on those markets (even though they were still bullish on European equities),” says Anspach, adding that “volumes in structured products were at least up by 30% due to the strong sales in April and May.”

Accumulators, a highly leveraged yet powerful strategy for risk-takers, were actively traded as the market was fertile for knocking out positions. This turned out to be a lead profit-maker for structured products. Average volumes of structured product holdings hit US$200-US$250 million in Asia during these months, industry sources say, citing their internal notes.

PARTIAL UNWINDING

As the year slipped into the second half, Grexit – the looming likelihood of Greece leaving the eurozone – began to feed into fears. Private bankers in Asia saw a flurry of activity from HNW clients holding European activities. “The Greek debt crisis and its potential exit is one of the more concerning topics among our clients,” Min Lan Tan, head of CIO Asia Pacific Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, noted previously. Julius Baer’s Meier adds that while structured product volumes remain “very healthy”, there was “a dip from the very high volumes we saw in April and May.” But one man’s poison is another man’s meat, with the Grexit fallout helping grow demand for FX-related structured products as Asian investors switched to more defensive strategies like DCIs (dual currency investments) and DCNs (dual currency notes). “FX activity remained stronger since August with clients still putting on large volumes of short dated transactions (mostly around the USD, AUD and to some extent JPY, CNH, GBP),” says BNP’s Anspach. “DCIs remain to be the most popular FX structures but more exotic structures are also actively traded,” says BNP’s Anspach. Meier adds that there was increased demand for hedging through outright forwards, a contract with a lock-in exchange rate and delivery date that allows an investor to buy or sell a currency on a specific date or within a range of dates. Equity and FX derivatives “make up the majority of the structured products flow at Julius Baer in Asia”, he says.

SWITCHING STRATEGIES… AGAIN

In August, investors and their bankers had to move fast when the central People’s Bank of China moved to lift the USD/CNY exchange rate fixing by 1,136 bps to 6.2298. This effectively meant a devaluation of 1.86% – the largest drop in the history of the yuan –

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STRUCTURED PRODUCTS

which was followed the next day by another 1.6% devaluation. The currency was now back at levels last seen in August 2011. Clients who held short dated fixed income instruments in CNH/ CNY (sometime with leverage) to benefit from the high interest rates/positive carry are the ones that got the most affected by the currency move, says Anspach. “Structured products that were popular before the yuan depreciation included TARN (targeted accrual redemption note) and TRF (targeted redemption forward),” says a global markets head at a private bank, on condition of anonymity. For TARN products, where the tenure is one to two years’ long, banks offer investors steady cash flow as long as the CNY spot is stronger that the knockout rate. “The impact is bigger when the FX moves slightly so we saw the most margin calls here,” says Anspach. More clients, she adds, held positions pegged to the US dollar depreciating versus the yen, the euro and the Australian dollar. The battering continued and intensified for those holding Asialinked investments as Asian stock exchanges hit multi-year lows surrounding deepened fears of the health of China’s economy. The Shanghai Composite shed as much as 8.5% in afternoon trading, while the Shenzhen Composite also dipped by more than 7.5%. Unsurprisingly, traders say the slump created panic and clients with highly leveraged positions looked to exit fast. “In August, volumes of flow structured products dropped to a third of what it was,” says the unnamed structured products specialist. “Volatility and uncertainty have created private banking clients to wait and watch on the sidelines.” But notwithstanding the recent bad news, bankers insist that volumes of structured products have still increased year-on-year, thanks to proceeds logged in April and May.

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EUROPE, US BACK IN PLAY

Clients breathed a sigh of relief following the Fed’s recent decision not to hike rate, and as tremors from the Asian market tanking continue to play out, some see European and Japanese equities as common underliers going forward. “We are seeing clients bullish on European and Japanese underliers due to the quantitative easing programmes. After China’s volatility, we will see allocations to European and US assets becoming a stronger trend of diversification outside the emerging world,” notes Anspach. “We predict that a large portion of Asian investors will look at structured product investments in these markets in the next few years...The emerging market is bound to undergo massive pressure.” Simon Grose-Hodge, managing director, head of investment advisory, South Asia, LGT, adds that this might just be a time for clients to pick up “summer sale” bargains. “This is a buying opportunity in the markets despite the huge focus on the Fed rate hike,” Grose-Hodge says, noting that optimistic US GDP numbers and the European purchasing manager’s index’s fouryear high have convinced some clients to opt for ELNs and FCNs. “The underliers are in the developed market including the US, Europe and Japan looking at the healthcare and IT sectors. Yield have been in the high teens to low 20s,” he continues. Three months ago, returns for these structured products were “in high single digits.” Another veteran banker adds that when credit tightens amid elevated volatility, the cost of derivatives rises and the reputation and service standards of the institution becomes even more important to clients. “It is now more expensive to buy an option on an underlying asset than it was before and investors become sensitive to their perception of their banker,” he says, declining to be named. Market neutral and volatility-capped strategies will become more popular with investors, he adds.

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STRUCTURED PRODUCTS

Can automation replace human experts? Multi-dealer platforms continue to jostle for the tag of Asia’s top structured products technology provider for private banks. As vendors attempt to plant their flags with promises of streamlining high volumes of trading, we ask if automation will impact growing headcount of structured products teams at private banks.

echnology providers are entering a time reminiscent of “Taking into account the large volumes of structured products the FX world in the late 90s. Then, big FX houses such as that are traded by Asian private banks, the automation process is Citi and Deutsche Bank made handsome sums off their there to stay and will develop further with the aim of having full FX transactions until such trades became commoditised straight-through processing from the product provider all the way through electronic platforms. to the private bank and eventually the end investor,” she says. Now structured products is heading in the same direction with However for private banks to gain scale while maintaining their flow products such as equity-linked notes (ELNs), accumulators cost-income ratios, Aditya Laroia, head of APAC institutional busiand dual currency notes (DCNs) – thanks to technology. But like ness, at Saxo Capital Markets Singapore says private banks will have in any other industry, this also introduces the issue of human to rethink their headcount strategies. resources versus newly invested digital ones. Asian Private Banker’s table of structured products team headcount shows a gradual rise at all tier 1, tier 2 and tier 3 private banks in Asia. According to over ten structured prodAverage Size Private Bank ucts heads in the region, private banks are still 2015 2014 hiring for this department – albeit at a slow rate Tier 1 6 5 – alongside increasing technology budgets. Many structured products heads say that Tier 2 5 4 headcounts have been healthy but they are resolute in that distribution space is in dire need of Tier 3 4 3 automation. The two seem mutually exclusive. Tier 1: Private banks with AUM of US$100 billion and above “The trend is to make the best use of the Tier 2: Private banks with AUM of US$50-US$100 billion latest technology in structured product disTier 3: Private banks with AUM of US$5-US$50 billion tribution and execution. There is no question about it as the benefits are clear. Automation tools allow us to focus on customised solutions, where most of the “Private banks are looking to grow and gain scale. They have travalue-add lies,” says Roger Meier, head of structured products sales ditionally done this through increasing headcount, however, this Asia, Julius Baer. affects their costs disproportionately. This is where technology can The Swiss pure-play is the first buy-side client to sit on Contigreatly help out,” he explains. neo, the multi-dealer platform and hub for structured products that Most recently, Saxo Bank launched its OpenAPI product that connects investment banks to private banks. Meier also adds that helps clients access its trading infrastructure. The next natural step technology helps the bank concentrate on non-flow products as it for Saxo Bank would be to enter the structured products space, “frees up resources for bespoke ideas.” Laroia says. The investment into technology will undoubtedly follow, given the sheer volume of structured products traded in Asia, Krisztina SIT AND BE DIVIDED Anspach, head of cross asset solutions Asia ex. Japan, BNP Paribas OR STAND UNITED says, adding that this will attract more technology players to the As competition increases in the structured products technology market. platform space, a resounding 80% of structured products providers

STRUCTURED PRODUCTS HEADCOUNT TABLE

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STRUCTURED PRODUCTS

polled in early March believe the industry will move towards consolidation. And private banks will wait eagerly for such platforms to develop and push innovative boundaries. “A successful platform / provider will need to offer a broad spectrum of services covering the entire sales and execution process,” Meier says.

As for headcount, many believe this will remain steady. “While asset sizes have grown for structured products, headcount has not grown quite as much. Technology will also not affect headcount. This is mostly market driven,” notes an unnamed structured products team head.

FX focus offers alternative route to structured products The recent market volatility has created more need for structured products that offer diversification. With the rise of external asset managers (EAMs), structured products sales and technology initiatives in the region, it is little surprise that the market has come together to offer one such product.

his summer of 2015, EAMs Caidao Wealth and Veco Invest Asia individually partnered with Citigroup and structured products technology platform Leonteq to roll out an actively managed, multi-manager FX strategy – one that is more usually available to institutional clients – for their high net worth clients. The product uses Citi’s FX/Macro multi-asset manager platform – with its access to 40 hedge fund managers – to create a diversified and uncorrelated portfolio.The EAM or family office acts as the asset allocator, selecting the allocation to and between the managers and rebalancing as needed. It also includes a stop-loss level on the portfolio. Leonteq’s role is to wrap the exposure into an actively managed certificate format which also allows for smaller ticket sizes. The minimum investment is typically US$50 million. While Citi established the multi-manager platform four years ago, reaching a peak assets under management (AUM) of around US$1 billion globally in 2014, it remains rather new to Asia. The platform gives clients the opportunity to invest in structured products in a “fund format” that is perceived to be safer, explains Peter Lee, managing director of Veco Invest Asia. “There was a period where people were skeptical of structured products post the financial crisis. Now the product is more transparent. With an actively managed certificate, high net worth clients are offered an attractive alternative to a fund. It’s also cheaper and offers more flexibility than a fund,” he tells Asian Private Banker. It also gives clients a way to invest in an asset class that is decorrelated from the financial markets through FX-related structured products, adds Harmen Overdijk, managing partner and CIO at Hong Kong-based Caiado Wealth.

“Currency strategies have been out of favour of late however its value as a portfolio diversification is high as it does not react in the same way to the same economic drivers as equities and bonds,” he notes. Bernard Wai, managing director and APAC head of private client solutions sales, Citi Markets and Securities Services, agrees, adding that Citi has been strong in the FX space with macro/FX managers to support the alliance. “The global FX business has historically been very transactional but we want to move away from that and into a product like this which concentrates on asset allocation and alpha generation,” he says. The note seeks to offer alpha, liquidity and asset allocation transparency and this differentiates the structured product from the rest, Wai says: “A particularly powerful feature of this product is the daily liquidity feature which gives incomparable flexibility to the discretionary portfolio manager (DPM) to change the weighting and allocation to the 40 hedge fund managers who are selected onto this platform.” Currently, gross inflow AUM for the product in Asia is around US$200 million and Wai observes that clients are showing more interest in gaining exposure to a product offering “relatively lower volatility and steady returns versus other asset classes as there’s uncorrelated risk and return.” As financial markets continue to play out in unexpected ways in 2015, investors will seek to hedge their investments through ones that are risk-reducing while enhancing returns. The industry has already seen a number of fortified unions between the multi-dealer technology platforms and various structured product houses such as the likes of Contineo, AG Delta, FinIQ and IPDS. As the number of EAMs grow in the region, they will undoubtedly look at different ways to enter the playing field.

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TECHNOLOGY

Robo-advisers byting on in Asia With their propensity to reduce cost-income ratios and improve productivity, robo-advisers – or robos – have already started to play an important role at private banks in Asia, says Standard Chartered’s (StanChart) head of private banking engineering.

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The adoption of robo-advisers in Asia has already begun, as service/product providers quickly expand their reach to the more exciting and lucrative Asian market,” says Marcel Fuerst, noting that while markets such as the US and Europe are more mature in this aspect, Asia is not as far as off as many believe. “The US private banking market is more standardised and by consequence more prone to adopt new technologies, in particular these days if these can contribute to lower cost-income ratios and hence improve productivity.” Robos are defined as automated wealth management services that provide advice on standardised calculations and algorithms. Much hype has surrounded the advent and arrival of robos in Asia, with some seeing the technology as a threat to private banking’s high touch and personal service model.

THREAT OR TREAT?

Fuerst dismisses such fears. Such technology will compliment relationship managers instead of replacing them, he predicts: “Ideally, relationship managers will identify routine tasks that can be automated and delegated to robo-advisers.” This, he continues, does not significantly impact the technology budgets of private banks and if they do, it is often subsidised by growth in the business. “As significant as an investment in robo-advisors may be, it must eventually provide a positive business case, that is, costs must be amortised by productivity increase or business growth within a relative short window of time,” he explains. But while robos alone will not significantly affect budgets, “having a platform that can efficiently support them however does”, though he declines to set a figure at this early stage. Janos Barberis, the founder of industry association Fintech Hong Kong, says robo advisers will change the game for Hong Kong’s wealth management industry. “This makes the location of the startup obsolete,” he says. “The private banking space will be democratised as the need for a large portfolio will diminish as robo advisors bridge the gap between the investor and the investments.”

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REGULATORY RESTRAINTS

As with most algorithm-based solutions and advice, a grey area as to where liability resides is set to keep regulatory bodies on their toes. “If there’s a mis-selling - who is accountable if robo-advisers are used, especially in jurisdictions with full disclosure regimes in place?” asks Barberis. Markus Gnick, co-founder of Startupbootcamp in Singapore agrees, adding that the fintech space is already facing hurdles in this space when it comes to getting off the ground. He thinks that while finance robotics will eventually make its way to Asia, it will be in a bifurcated manner that differs from the US: “I rather see banks in Asia playing around with a few robo advisory elements to offer new solutions to their existing customers.”

BANKING ON ROBOTICS

Indeed banks are taking notice. DBS Bank rolled out its IBM Watson solution to power the bank’s relationship managers with the DBS Wealth Advisor at the start of 2015. StanChart Private Bank too, has plans in the pipeline, Fuerst tells this publication. Globally, financial advisers are starting to warm to the idea of “robo counterparts.” As consultancy Corporate Insight notes, online financial advisers have increased their total assets under management by 11% in the first half of 2015 to US$21 billion. Assets that clients give robos discretionary control over also rose 57% over the last six months and 116% year-on-year to US$8 billion - a further sign of a growing comfort by investors to cede asset control to a digital portfolio manager. In Asia, Hong Kong-based brokerage 8 Securities launched its version of a robo-adviser called “8Now!” targeting retail investors with a minimum of US$10,000 in assets. The platform assesses the investor’s risk profile through a series of questions to build a customised portfolio of up to 15 ETFs investing in bonds, stocks and cash. Robos, Fuerst adds, are quite simply the next logical step in the “unstoppable development of digital banking across the industry.” “It’s thus a global trend that will involve Asia as with any other geography or region,” he says.

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