Industry Briefing The Power of International Travel
International Travel Update The Importance of International Tourism – and Why You Should Care
Presented by: julie heizer National Travel & Tourism Office International Trade Administration U.S. Department of Commerce
National Travel & Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Visitor Volume 2018 (millions)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Visitor Volume Percent Change 2017 to 2018
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Visitor Volume Change 2017 to 2018
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Visitor Percent Change 2019 YTD vs. 2018 YTD January-August (Canada Jan-Jul; Total/Mexico Jan-Jun)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Visitor Spending 2018 ($billions) June 2019 release
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Visitor Spending Percent Change 2017 to 2018 (%) June 2019 release
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Visitor Spending Change 2017 to 2018 ($billions) June 2019 release
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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U.S. Visitor and Spending Trends (millions / $billions)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Top Ten Country Rankings of Global Receipts and Visitors (excludes passenger fare exports)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
(billions / $millions)
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Trends We Watch Miscellaneous
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UNWTO in/out—Global inbound growth continues, ahead of UNWTO schedule of declining growth rates to 2030.
2016:+3.6%; 2017: +7.0%; 2018: +5.6%. 2019 forecast is return to more typical +3% to +4%. Two-year lag in country-level outbound volumes. 2018 total outbound spending (in own country currency) was up for most top USA origin countries (not Brazil, Argentina).
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USA Arrivals—up 0.7% in 2017; Up 3.5% in 2018. Uneven performance across the top origin markets for both years. 2019 is off to a very uneven start. Overseas up, Canada and Mexico both down big.
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Airline Capacity—Very uneven expectations for first half of 2020.
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APIS—a citizenship-based census count of all persons entering the USA via air
USA outbound visitor volume was up 9% in 2018, nearly as much YTD 2019....and thus using seats. This combined with key countries with major transit hubs makes this data less useful when updating the travel forecast. regardless of residence or purpose. The non-USA citizen count was consistently up 3.5% to 4.5% throughout 2018. Softer start to 2019. Note: includes U.S. non-citizen residents returning home, and foreign travelers in transit through the U.S. to other country destinations.
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Trends We Watch continued
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Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA): Interest in visiting the U.S. from VWP countries is flat over the past 12 months; 2018 ended up 1.8%. 2019 up 0.6% through June.
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BrandUSA—The USG match of up to $100M is capable of being fully funded moving
forward based on ESTA fee collections. Excess of about $52M on 12-month moving sum.
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IMF country-level forecasts—semi-annual database release.
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U.S. visa issuance—FY18 (Oct-Sep) U.S. Department of State visa issuance was
April 2019 release basically the same as October 2018 release. Probably same for upcoming October 2019 release. down -9%...and is down -21% over the past three FYs.
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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The NTTO Travel Forecast Update 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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International Visitors to the U.S. and Projections (2000-2024) 2019 Forecast (October 2019)
millions of international visitors
Sources:
U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, National Travel and Tourism Office; INEGI (Mexico); Statistics Canada. -- 2019 Travel Forecast (October 2019)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Hotel-Motel Room Nights (millions) assumes 1 room/party
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Sooooooo … what ABOUT Atlanta?
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H/M room-night AtlantaHow anddid International Travel volume decline? I thought U.K. volume went up in 2018?...
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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International volume— annual data
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International share— annual data
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International top markets— 2016-2018 combined data
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International traveler profile— Atlanta based on 2016-2018 combined data; Overseas based on 2018 data.
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How didVOLUME H/M room-night International to Atlantavolume decline? I thought U.K. volume went up in 2018?...
thousands of visitors
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International volume to Atlanta –
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
Mexico (air) available starting 2004, since then... • 485,000 2003 •
892,000
2015
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744,000
2018
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Mexico (land) not available, but would be negligible.
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Canada (also 1+ nights) not available at city level, but was 408,000 to Georgia in 2015. Likely about same level in 2018 given overall volume trends.
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did H/M room-nightVolume volume decline? AtlantaHow SHARE of International I thought U.K. volume went up in 2018?...
Atlanta share of overseas visitors
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International share to Atlanta – highest in early 00s – higher for repeat (1.8%) than 1st-time (1.5%) – higher for business (net) (3.6%) and convention (net) (3.0%) than for leisure/VFR (net) (1.4%) and vacation (net) 1.1%) – higher for India (4.4%),
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Atlanta Top International Markets (all other countries <2%)
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Trip Planning and Decision Timing
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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Selected Key Traveler Characteristics
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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USA Port of Entry (all other ports <1%)
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Transportation Modes
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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States Visited
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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States Visited (continued) (all other states <1%)
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Activities in USA During Trip (not collected at a state level)
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Activities in USA During Trip (continued) (not collected at a state level)
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Key Takeaways... 1) Global travel remains robust based on the sum of country arrivals and 2019 outbound spending. Growth in 2019 may be lower, but lower from higher-than-originally-forecasted levels. 2) USA volume increased in 2018 to a record level, but country performances were uneven. 2019 change metrics through August are very uneven...including many declines. 3) NTTO forecast calls for a new volume record in 2020...and growth to continue through 2024. Five countries will account for nearly 58% of the growth over the forecast period—Canada, Mexico, U.K., China, and India. 4) As with all destinations, the Atlanta visitor profile shows similarities and differences versus the national averages. -- Atlanta’s top origin markets are the U.S.’s top markets, but Germany and India higher. ----
Don’t forget about Canada, for which NTTO does not have city-level data. ATL the POE for half of Atlanta overseas visitors...it ISN’T for half. Atlanta visitors visit elsewhere, confirmed by higher use of air travel within the USA.
National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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How to Find Us
https://travel.trade.gov julie heizer National Travel & Tourism Office U.S. Department of Commerce Phone: 202 482 4904 julie.heizer@trade.gov Find emails for each NTTO staff member at: https://travel.trade.gov/about/overview.asp National Travel and Tourism Office, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce
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DELTA AIR LINES, INC. Brad Sill General Manager, APAC Strategy
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Delta Uniquely Placed to Meet Growing Demand Consumers increasingly look for connections to other people, places, and cultures Consumer shift from goods to services continues to grow Share of Personal Consumption Expenditures (1980-2018)
69%
Experiential services are driving growth â&#x20AC;&#x201C; particularly air & foreign travel Growth in Personal Consumption Expenditures (2007-2017) GDP: +35% Overall PCE: +37%
+54%
54% +45%
46% 31%
1980
+63%
1989
1998 Goods
2007 Services
2018 YTD
+48%
+23%
Goods
Services
Experiential Services
Air Travel
Foreign Travel
From #1 Airline to Beloved Brand #1 U.S. Carrier
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APAC
1,111
17%
2,671
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42%
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LAC
2,612
Atlanta a Key Destination for Travel and Cargo − 15% of DL capacity from ATL is international, with +90 departures per day − 25% of DL passengers on our international flights originate and disembark in ATL − DL carries 105M tons of cargo business between ATL and international destinations
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The All-Feather Association
ACVB Industry Briefing The Power of International Travel
October 15, 2019
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IPPE Overview IPPE has 72 years of history in Atlanta, currently utilizing all buildings of Georgia World Congress Center. 2019 had 600,732 sq. ft. 1,426 exhibitors and 56,000 sq. ft. of additional floor space for food courts, lounges, onfloor meeting space and activity areas. 32,645 Attendees – 8,830 internationals from 133 countries; 23,815 represented by all 50 states & DC 13,932 guests in hotel room blocks (plus 1000 rooms for students and NPFDA) 53 Hotels in block, downtown, midtown, airport, Buckhead and Galleria area $46.3m economic impact
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2019 IPPE International Attendee Breakout 4.54% 1.11%
5.49%
South America Central America/Caribbean
24.87%
11.94%
Mexico Canada Europe 7.13%
Asia
Latin AmericaOceana 42.1% Middle East
19.72%
10.06%
Africa
15.14%
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Top Countries Represented
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10 Year Attendee Trend 40000 35000
32,64 5
30000 25000
5448
20000 15000
2010; 3866
4371
4142
2011
2012
7245
7280
2015
2016
8018
7093
2017
2018
8830
5456
10000 5000 0 2010
2013
Domestic
2014
2019
International 55
International Visitors
1,300 part of the U.S. Department of Trade & Commerce International Buyers Program Easy transportation through Atlanta Shopping, culture and entertainment Hospitality and welcoming environment Welcome reception at Georgia Aquarium New attendee first time to Atlanta or even U.S.
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Thank you to our Sponsors! Fox Theatre
Kilgore Music Entertainment
Adult Big Wheel Group
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12 Mile Company