Atlantic Council RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
ISSUE BRIEF
The New Turkey: Making Sense of Turkish Decision-Making APRIL 2018
AARON STEIN
T
he erosion of democratic institutions in Turkey has prompted quiet discussion in many Western countries about Ankara’s place in the transatlantic community and the future of Turkish policy making. There is little debate about Turkey’s importance for projecting power into the Black Sea and for helping to contain a revanchist Russia, but Ankara’s poor relations with the United States and many European countries, combined with close cooperation with Moscow in Syria, have raised questions about the drivers of Turkish decision-making. Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has pursued a balanced foreign policy premised on a sustained effort to deepen Turkish ties with regional countries while preserving relations with the transatlantic community and powers in Turkey’s near abroad. The challenge for Western governments does not stem from Turkey’s efforts to deepen relations with its neighbors. Instead, the issue for the United States and Europe is how Turkish politicians are using foreign policy as a tool for populist political gain—and how this trend could erode domestic support for Turkey’s alliance with Europe and the United States.
The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East studies political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and recommends US, European, and regional policies to encourage effective governance, political legitimacy, and stability.
This trend in Turkish politics is linked to the collapse of Turkey’s democratic institutions, following a failed coup attempt in July 2016, and a concurrent wave of terrorist attacks linked to the civil war in Syria. In the wake of the coup attempt, for example, Ankara has demonized the United States for refusing to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the exiled imam blamed for planning the putsch attempt, and for US military support given to a Syrian Kurdish militia, linked to the insurgent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). In parallel, Turkish relations with different European countries have deteriorated amid disputes about PKK-linked activities,1 AKP campaign rallies in different 1
“Erdogan Says Europe Aiding Terrorism with Support for Kurdish Militants,” Reuters, November 6, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-kurdserdogan/erdogan-says-europe-aiding-terrorism-with-support-for-kurdish-militantsidUSKBN1310NW.