ZAPAD 2017
A Guide to Russia’s Largest Military Exercise What is Zapad 2017? Zapad 2017 is a joint strategic exercise involving Russian and Belarusian military forces that is expected to take place September 14–20, 2017, in Russia’s western military district, the Kaliningrad exclave, and across Belarus. The Zapad (West) exercise series began in 1973 and is a multi-force exercise, which will include ground, naval, and air forces, logistics support, and troops from the Ministry for Internal Affairs. Unlike Russia’s recent snap exercises, the Zapad exercises are scheduled and announced in advance, although the exact size and scope of Zapad 2017 remains undisclosed. Indicators suggest it will be substantial: the Ministry of Defense has ordered a vast number of train transports for forces involved in the exercise. Some observers, among them former Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO General Philip Breedlove, have suggested that Zapad 2017 could be the largest Russian exercise since the end of the Cold War.
Russian president Vladimir Putin at the Gozhsky test ground during the final stage of the Zapad-2013 Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercises.” Photo credit: Kremlin.
The final stage of the Zapad-2013 Russian-Belarusian strategic military exercises. Photo credit: Kremlin.
Why does Zapad 2017 matter? Military exercises do not exist in a vacuum and must be understood in their broader strategic context; Zapad 2017 is no exception. Zapad 2017 comes at a time of nearly unprecedented levels of military activity in Northern Europe. Rising tensions in the region create a sense of instability and insecurity, making the plans for a largescale military exercise such as Zapad 2017 much more than just a routine matter. Zapad 2017 can also provide valuable insight into Russia’s defense planning and military thinking for both NATO and the United States. The exercises can reveal insights into what Russia intends to prioritize through its military modernization, the current state of Russia’s force posture, its threat perceptions, and the political messages it wants to convey.
What can we expect? Indications point to an extensive and large-scale set of exercises. Russia and Belarus have vehemently rejected claims that the number of troops participating in Zapad 2017 will exceed 13,000. Yet, preparations, in particular the vast train transport component required to move the forces, points to a much larger exercise, perhaps upwards of 80,000 soldiers. During Zapad 2017, the Russian and Belarusian militaries will be able to assess the readiness of their forces, strengthen interoperability, and test their command and control systems. The exercises will likely include a nuclear element as well, given that Russia has vowed to move toward integration of its nuclear and conventional forces.
Zapad-2013 The most recent Zapad exercise took place in September 2013, in the western parts of Russia, Kaliningrad, and western Belarus. The exercise included, among other things, airborne and amphibious assaults, long-range strikes from the sea, test firings of Russia’s Iskander-M missile system, and trials of Russia’s evolving command and control systems. Zapad-2013 involved many more troops than were originally declared by Russia to the OSCE. Russia manipulated the numbers by discounting the naval, air, and logistical forces, as well as railroad troops, that took part in the exercise, and treated drills that were part of Zapad-2013 as separate exercises.
Military parade on the Red Square in Moscow, Russia, September 5, 2016. Photo credit: Kremlin.
As of July 2017, Russia and Belarus have neither notified the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) of the exercises, nor formally invited NATO to observe the drills. This means that Moscow and Minsk are currently in violation of the 2011 Vienna Document, an OSCE resolution aimed at strengthening confidence and security-building measures and increasing military transparency. The two countries have also failed to announce the exercise scenario, but considering the character of past Zapad exercises, it is likely that Zapad 2017 will simulate a conflict involving NATO.
What is the role of the United States? Recognizing the rapidly evolving security situation in northeastern Europe, the United States has taken steps to reaffirm its commitment to European security and increase its presence in the region. Through the European Reassurance Initiative (now the European Deterrence Initiative) the United States provides an increased rotational presence of US air, ground, and sea forces for exercises throughout Europe, improvements to infrastructure and forward logistical arrangements, and intensified capacity-building efforts for allies and partners in the region. The United States also leads the multinational battalion in Poland as a part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP). NATO’s eFP, established at the 2016 Warsaw Summit, has dedicated four multinational battalions to bolster collective defense and deterrence in the key frontline states of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland along NATO’s eastern flank. The United States dispatched a battery of Patriot long-range surface-to-air missiles to Lithuania for a NATO air defense exercise in August 2017. During Zapad 2017, the United States will be responsible for an enhanced NATO air policing mission over the Baltic States, and is likely to also increase the presence of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets in the region.
What might Zapad 2017 mean for the United States and NATO? While it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will use Zapad 2017 as a way to disguise a mass mobilization, the significance of Zapad 2017 should not be underestimated. By conducting frequent and comprehensive exercises, Russia is improving the readiness and effectiveness of its military forces. The exercise will also provide important clues to the future trajectory of Russia’s military strategy—ensuring that NATO, its member states, and partners will be paying close attention. Continued Russian assertiveness, through large exercises close to NATO’s borders and other measures, further heightens the insecurity in Europe, in particular in the north and east. Finally, if Russia ultimately chooses to disregard the Vienna guidelines ahead of the exercise, Russia and Belarus will be eroding norms that form a critical foundation for risk reduction in Europe.