MARKET INSIGHTS Q1/Q2 2021
CONTENTS A note from our Chief Performance Officer.....................................................4 - 5 Insights - Property.............................................................................................. 6 - 13 Insights - Finance............................................................................................. 14 - 19 Insights - Investment...................................................................................... 20 - 21 Local Market Insights - Brisbane................................................................... 22 - 24 Top Performers - Houses....................................................................................... 25 Top Performers - Units................................................................................... 26 - 27 Inspiration - Styling..........................................................................................28 - 31
A NOTE FROM OUR CHIEF PERFORMANCE OFFICER Welcome to Atlas’ inaugural Market Report, which will provide valuable insights to guide you on your selling or buying journey. But before you flick forward to what the property market has in store for 2021, I want to share with you the Atlas story. When the world paused last year, we used the time to rethink and develop how we could revolutionise the way people buy, sell and market property. We concluded to deliver the best outcomes for you, our client, we needed to use global insights, and local expertise, and realised by pairing this with cutting-edge technology we can deliver the best outcomes for all involved. Fast forward to 2021, and Atlas was founded as a fresh and modern agency that’s backed by LJ Hooker, Australia’s most iconic brand for over 90 years. Our high-performing agents are the best in the business with world-class industry experience and stellar reputations. We are authentic, transparent and client-centric, meaning the service and results you receive are second to none. So, talking about results, what can you expect in 2021? We partnered with CoreLogic to bring you the most comprehensive market report available. We look at how 2020 has changed the way we live, work and make lifestyle decisions, and what this means for real estate today, and in the months and years ahead.
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In a world of uncertainty brought upon by a global pandemic, Australia’s property market continues to stand strong. However, undoubtedly 2021 will be a pivotal time in history. Not only is there a shift towards lowdensity housing, but the newfound popularity of remote working is encouraging buyers to look to regional areas, where lifestyle factors rate higher and property prices are lower. Thanks in particular to record-low interest rates and government incentives, buyer demand is also on the rise. And so are prices, which are expected to continue climbing at pace this year, the fastest since 2003. This growth is fuelled by improving economic conditions and a limited supply of property. In Sydney, the number of suburbs that hit a median sale price of $3 million doubled through 2020. This number is expected to double yet again in 2021. Because of increased competition, buyers are willing to pay premiums to secure properties. A testament to this is auction clearance rates, which are averaging more than 75 per cent each week across the city.
In Brisbane, housing values are rising faster than most other capital cities. Many factors are contributing to this but, put most simply, it’s affordability. Brisbane house prices are, on average, $440,000 less than in Sydney, or roughly half. Income gaps between the two cities are not as large as this figure, meaning that property is more affordable. Brisbane has also benefited from a positive rate of interstate migration, also contributing to more people moving to the river city than leaving. This is all putting upward pressure on house prices. Further south, the Byron Bay boom is having a ripple effect onto surrounding areas like Brunswick Heads and the hinterland. What was once a pipe dream for Sydney-siders to reside in the sleepy surf town has now become a viable reality for many, with four in 10 buyers coming from the harbour city. These are just some of the insights you will find in our report which, like an atlas, will guide you on your real estate journey this year.
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INSIGHTS PROPERTY
What can we expect from the Brisbane property market in 2021? In a world of uncertainty brought upon us by a global pandemic, Australia’s property market continues to stand strong, in comparison to other markets around the world. The team at Atlas were fortunate enough to spend time with Tim Lawless, Head of Research for CoreLogic Asia Pacific, Australia’s leading property data provider, to discuss insights and trends he’s observing in the current property market. 6
How is the Brisbane property market performing? Brisbane housing values are rising faster than most other capital cities. For example, in the last three months Brisbane housing values are up 2.5% compared to only a 1.6% rise in Sydney. Many factors flow into the stronger performance, the first and most simple being affordability. Brisbane house prices are on average, $440,000 less than in Sydney, or roughly half. Income gaps between the two cities are not as large as this figure, meaning that property is more affordable. Towards a demographic perspective, South East Queensland has been almost entirely insulated against a downturn in overseas migration, as it does not have as much exposure to overseas migrants as Sydney does. Further, the whole state of Queensland is benefiting from a positive rate of interstate migration, with more people arriving in Queensland than leaving. For comparison, this rate is negative in New South Wales.
Queensland’s economic environment is very conducive to a boom, with an increase in population, increased labour force and affordable housing, which is a great recipe for upwards pressure on house prices. How are regional markets performing? Byron Bay is becoming an extremely expensive and exclusive market, attracting lots of people from capital cities. I look at this market and think “how much further can it go?” It has already seen extraordinary value gains and affordability constraints will mean that we might see surrounding areas increase in value. For example, Brunswick Heads, Ballina and the Hinterland areas are all becoming extremely popular. No doubt this ripple of demand will take place in metro markets as well as things normalise and employers start to embark on “work from work” programs instead of work from home. There is likely to be a lot of bounce back demand towards metro areas. If they haven’t seen values rising as quickly as regional markets, then at least the temporary affordability will attract buyers back. Previously regional markets
and metro areas had a huge affordability gap, so I think this will equalise after a period of stronger performance outside of capitals. How is property supply trending at the moment? Inventory levels are at extreme lows for this time of the year. Selling conditions are excellent and auction clearance rates are high, but we are not seeing many vendors. There are a few possible explanations, one being that more people are choosing to renovate instead of moving. Another reason could be that more properties are selling off-market, so sales are strong but not all sales are coming from listed properties. Real estate agents have been reporting a rise in off-market sales, so this is likely. This drop could also reflect that we are amid a global pandemic, and despite confidence bouncing back rapidly, there is still reticence towards making a high commitment decision. This trend is expected to change through 2021, as there are already more properties coming to the market.
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Another factor in this change is the newfound popularity of remote working, which encourages buyers to look to outer fringes where supply of property is high, and prices are lower. This shift in the market will result in many looking for property on the fringes. However, this will most likely result in the “ripple effect” as capital gains in one suburb move on to others. As people purchase fringe properties for an increased price, the sellers of these properties will have received large capital gains and may choose to purchase property in metro areas. This will then increase metro prices and so on. Even though outer suburbs are increasingly popular at the moment, the metro regions are highly connected to activity on the outskirts and will increase property prices overall. What is going to happen when pandemic-specific government subsidies and concessions end? There will undoubtedly be some headwinds as this fiscal support phases out, but if we look back through 2020, we encountered these same challenges at the end of the year. Jobkeeper started winding down and banks were moving through the 6-month mortgage deferral plans. However, we got through this first “fiscal cliff” relatively unscathed as unemployment trended lower and jobs growth higher. It’s likely we will continue to see the economy improving as the second “fiscal cliff” approaches, but we are likely to see a slow down as a recovery. JobKeeper was a critical supporting factor of economic resilience in Australia, and the key reason it is tapering off from March is because the economy has almost returned to normal conditions. In fact, I believe that if we started to see the economy falter in reaction to less fiscal support, then we would see its reimplementation. It’ll be a case of watch and see but I think if past performance is
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anything to go by, there will not be a great deal of economic disruption. I’m expecting after March we will see the rate of jobs growth slow down temporary, and unemployment may creep up for a little while, but I doubt this will be permanent. As long as we see the economic recovery continue, jobs will be created, and unemployment will trend lower. Either way, this will be a very gradual process. How have immigration rates impacted the market? Borders have closed, but there is still substantial demand from buyers internationally. One of the largest segments is expats who are looking to return home, often looking in premium areas in capital cities. It is hard to measure if expats have impacted the market, but from anecdotal evidence I believe they have. Returning expats fly under the radar in migration data, so it is difficult to see what the demand impacts are. However, real estate professionals state that this is a factor in the marketplace. This makes sense that we would see more people returning to Australia, as we have broadly done a good job at managing the virus and keeping outbreaks contained.
What impact, if any has the pandemic had on housing preferences? There has been a shift in the market towards low density housing. In Brisbane, the distribution of house purchases and unit purchases has a decade average of roughly 71% of purchases being of houses. In January 2021, the distribution changed to 77% of activity being house purchases. A 6% jump may not seem important upon first inspection, but it increased so rapidly that it is indicative of a change in preferences for buyers. This is largely driven by first home buyers as they are often the most reactive to government stimuli. The change to the stimulus in 2020 which meant that stamp duty is now exempt for properties up to $750,000 compared to $650,000 previously now means that first home buyers can purchase above the Brisbane median property price of $720,000 without stamp duty. This opens up many more low-density options, which may have spurred the shift to houses.
Although there is optimism from overseas buyers, the rental market is suffering due to closed borders. 60% of Australia’s population growth comes from overseas migration, including temporary migrants such as students, and permanent migrants. All migrants tend to rent when they first arrive in Australia, which has strongly impacted inner-city apartment rental demand.
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However, Queensland has seen a different type of increased migration throughout the pandemic – interstate migration. They have outpaced every other state, seeing migration at 90% above the decade average. This has made the state relatively insulated to a lack of international buyers and has even grown their economy. How is investor participation trending? In Queensland, investors only made up 22% of mortgage demand, whereas usually we would expect about a third of the demand to come from investors. However, this figure has been proportionally rising since September 2020. In my opinion, Queensland is providing investors with better market fundamentals in the sense that it’s cheaper with high rental yield and strong renter demand. When these factors combine, it’s no wonder we are seeing investors more active in South East Queensland than Sydney. Owner occupiers have risen through the ranks to be one of the most active segments in the market, obviously taking advantage of government schemes like the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, Stamp Duty Concessions, Home Builder and state specific concessions. There is a lot on offer and when combined with super low interest rates, it highlights the number of incentives available for first home buyers.
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What are the key risks to the market right now? Although across Australia, there are mostly positive signs for the property market, there is still risk involved in recovering from a pandemic. The primary, and most obvious, risk is the virus. We know from previous outbreaks that if there is another outbreak of COVID-19 and we see extended periods of lockdown, that’s extremely disruptive to our economy. For example, when Melbourne went through its second wave of lockdowns, there was a more significant impact on housing market activity than we saw in the first round. Even a regionalised period of lockdown impacts on national confidence, so the virus is a risk to what’s been a strong recovery period. However, with the COVID-19 vaccine already being rolled out across the country, another outbreak is less certain. Therefore, all the new confidence the market is generating is justified and likely to sustain excellent levels of activity.
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INSIGHTS FINANCE What does property finance look like in a historically low interest rate environment? With the cash rate at a historic 0.1% low, and the big banks following suit with rates as low as 2% there appears to be plenty of opportunity to borrow in the current market. Theo Chambers, Chief Executive Officer of Shore Financial, discusses the mortgage market landscape and the bank’s approach to lending in the current market.
What are the big banks’ approach to lending in the current market? Big banks’ have come a long way since their risk averse policies during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. They were far stricter on mortgage repayments and foreclosed on houses where borrowers were in extended periods of mortgage arears fairly quickly. However, the precedent has now been changed due to the pandemic. This approach has mostly been established by the Government setting a new attitude for the banks when dealing with financially distressed borrowers. Instead of being risk averse and foreclosing on houses in arears sooner rather than later, all the banks simply offered to pause repayments and help coach borrowers through financially difficult times. Means testing for applying to pause your repayments was also fairly easy with little to no verification of financial difficulty needing to be proved evident. Separate to this in July 2019, APRA adjusted lending policies where the assessment rate, or the rate used for the bank to calculate whether you can afford
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a loan, is scaled based on a margin above the current interest rates. Previously, this was a firm 7.25%. But now, as interest rates decreases, it is easier for consumers to borrow money as the assessment rate subsequently reduces as well. Since the introduction of this new policy in 2019, there have been six RBA cash rate cuts, which means six instances where borrowing power potentially became stronger depending on each banks lending policy. This has made home loans more accessible and affordable than they have ever been for most buyers, which sets the foundation for more buyers to compete in the market and drive prices higher. With regards to assessment, Banks are really scrutinising over borrowers who received a cash boost or job keeper during the pandemic, which doesn’t necessarily impact your ability to get loan approval, but the bank will deduct this out of your revenue. However, if banks see that you deferred your home loan repayments, ironically a service that they readily offered, they will be more apprehensive to approve your loan.
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How has the property investment market been impacted in the last 12 months? Mortgage demand from investors has dropped off substantially across Australia. It usually sits at a third of all mortgage approvals but is now at 23% nationally. Investors are sitting on the fence at the moment. Right now, you would be lucky to find an investment apartment giving you 3% gross rental yield which is not that attractive. It is likely that investors are also putting their funds into improving their primary residence. Especially as work-from-home arrangements has increased in popularity, homeowners are placing more importance on their family home. And this is a great idea as it’s one of the only tax-free wealth generation strategies available in Australia, as there are capital gains exemptions on primary residences. Although property investment is not as attractive as usual, it is still holding far stronger than other investments such as stocks, which have been volatile throughout last year. Australians are still keen to invest their money in bricks and mortar, something tangible. It’s far safer and more predictable than other investments.
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What is happening with first home buyers? First home buyers are an extremely active segment of the market right now. With assistance from the government, this sector has never been more empowered to take out a home loan. Shore Financial mostly sees first home buyers who have assistance from the government or even another source, sometimes with a third party acting as a loan guarantor. These people often cosign as a couple and look for houses over units.
Looking to the future what do you think we can expect? With such a low cost of funding, due to low interest rates, it will be difficult for the property market not to take off. I’m very optimistic about the growth we will see over the coming years. Shore Financial equips their clients with the tools to best maximise these capital gains, helping experienced and inexperienced buyers structure their borrowing to optimise returns especially when a consumer has multiple properties and negative gearing and ideal tax structuring becomes more relevant. Where possible, it is a good time to invest in property as growth will skyrocket with the impending economic growth Australia will see as buyer confidence returns to the market.
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INSIGHTS INVESTMENT
Tenant demand for properties skyrockets as Brisbane rental market tightens Brisbane’s rental market is experiencing an extraordinary level of demand from tenants. Supply of rental properties is incredibly low, and these two factors have combined to create one of the tightest rental markets in Brisbane in 10 years. Atlas discussed these new trends and the impact for buyers and sellers with LJ Hooker’s Queensland Head of Property Management Stepfanie Regan. She provides insights into the best next step for investors, tenants and potential buyers. What rental market trends do you expect to see in Brisbane over 2021? The Brisbane rental market is experiencing a tightening of supply, as the vacancy rate sits at 1.8% and this is likely to continue throughout the course of 2021. The main contributing factor to this lack of rental supply is other states COVID-19 outbreaks and restrictions as well as border closures. We experienced huge migration in 2020, with interstate migration at 90% above the decade average and although the data is yet to be released for Q1 in 2021,
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we are likely to see similar trends. As long as this continues, we are likely to see an influx of new demand for rental properties. In recent memory, there has been no evidence of a property market so tight. We are experiencing huge demand for rental properties, with up to 87 tenant applications on a single property and this is likely to continue to increase through the year. How is investor participation trending? Investor participation is trending slightly lower than usual, as there is strong incentive for people to become owner occupiers at the moment. With incredibly low interest rates, the high likelihood of rapid capital gains and government concessions readily available now, it is more likely people will want to be owner occupiers over investors. In fact, Brisbane prices are expected to surge 20% by 2023, indicating that Brisbane will be the country’s best performing market over the next few years.
How are rental returns performing in Brisbane? Rental returns and yields have both dramatically increased in Brisbane. Rents are increasing anywhere from 5% through to 15% in some cases, which definitely results in an increase in returns. Brisbane’s gross rental yield for houses is 4%, and for units is 5.2%, which is much higher than other capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne.
In fact, the government is currently encouraging first home buyers specifically to purchase a home. The state and federal governments have huge incentives for first home buyers right now including the first home buyer deposit scheme, which can be added on to other concessions such as HomeBuilder. With so many additional grants, many people are choosing to move from tenanted properties and purchase their own homes which they will occupy. With such low interest rates, it is a particularly attractive time for people to buy their own homes. Many investors are also selling their homes who were previously investors due to excellent capital gains. People are then purchasing these investment properties and living in them as owner occupiers, contributing to the tight rental market. What advice would you give to people thinking of investing right now? Do not hesitate to invest, as it’s a fantastic market with opportunities for great returns and capital gains over time. Put your best offers in as soon as you can. Returns are going to continue to increase at least throughout 2021, so before the borders open and international buyers begin to snap up property, definitely look to a strong investment opportunity.
However, this is causing a lot of stress to tenants as affordability is decreasing rapidly. Many investors rely on rent as their only source of income, so are of course, very keen to increase rent. Experienced property managers are trying to encourage an increase of rent in accordance with the market value and are advising landlords not too raise prices too high, especially if the tenants have been good. Rental returns are definitely increasing, but I would warn landlords against hiking up prices if they have current tenants who are respectful of their property.
What advice would you give to current landlords? If you have good, respectful long-term tenants, negotiate a reasonable rent increase with them so that your rent price is meeting market value. This way, you can increase your returns in good conscience and keep your current tenants. Speak to your property manager when it is time for your lease to be renewed and see if there is room to warrant an increase on your property. They can advise you on the best next step.
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10KM RING
5KM RING
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LOCAL MARKET INSIGHTS BRISBANE
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MARKET INSIGHTS Inner South
Inner North
Mid South
Mid North
Sales (Past 12 months)
2,877
4,147
2,990
3,222
Median days on market (Past 12 months)
41
37
29
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16 Days - Atlas’s Median Days on Market Median sale price (Past 12 months)
$728,086
$776,175
$622,902
$630,590
Median price growth (3 months)
0.81%
1.19%
0.2%
1.29%
Median price growth (12 months)
5.02%
4.8%
4.54%
3.23%
Median price growth (5 years)
5.99%
7.44%
8.69%
8.39%
High
High
High
High
22% fewer days on market than the Brisbane average
29% fewer days on market than the Brisbane average
45% fewer days on market than the Brisbane average
41% fewer days on market than the Brisbane average
Low
Low
Low
Low
11% less stock on market than Brisbane’s average
13% less stock on market than Brisbane’s average
18% less stock on market than Brisbane’s average.
15% less stock on market than Brisbane’s average
Buyer Demand
Property Supply
Source: CoreLogic
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TOP PERFORMERS - HOUSES 12 month median sale price growth (houses) Inner South
Inner North
Mid South
Mid North
Yeronga
27.6%
St Lucia
31.9%
Tennyson
36.1%
Enoggera
10.5%
Highgate Hill
17.2%
Spring Hill
20.6%
Corinda
17.6%
Chermside
9.7%
Woolloongabba
15.1%
Bardon
18%
Carina Heights
15%
Chapel Hill
9.1%
Top performers rental yield (houses) Inner South
Inner North
Morningside
3.7%
Brisbane City
Mid South
Mid North
3.7%
Archerfield
5.6%
Enoggera Reservoir
5.5%
East Brisbane
3.5%
Wooloowin
3.5%
Tingalpa
4.4%
Keperra
4.3%
Fairfield
3.5%
Alderley
3.5%
Nathan
4.2%
Mcdowall
4.3%
Annerley
3.5%
Kelvin Grove
3.5%
Murarrie
4.2%
Days on market (houses) Inner South
Inner North
Mid South
Mid North
Fairfield
23
Herston
15
Tingalpa
16
Keperra
13
Annerley
24
Lutwyche
19
Carina Heights
16
Chapel Hill
14
Morningside
25
Wooloowin
21
Tarragindi
18
Chermside West
15
Source: CoreLogic
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TOP PERFORMERS - UNITS 12 month median sale price growth (units) Inner South
Inner North
Mid South
Mid North
Annerley
19.7%
Herston
33.8%
Graceville
11.4%
Enoggera
12.3%
Fairfield
13.9%
Bardon
15.3%
Holland Park West
10.8%
Gordon Park
7.2%
Balmoral
12.7%
Paddington
14.9%
Moorooka
5.2%
Indooroopilly
7.1%
Top performers rental yield (units) Inner South
Inner North
Mid South
Mid North 6%
Chermside West
6.6%
Woolloongabba
5.7%
Spring Hill
6.2%
Upper Mount Gravatt
Dutton Park
5.3%
Fortitude Valley
5.7%
Tingalpa
6%
Mcdowall
5.8%
South Brisbane
5.2%
Kelvin Grove
5.6%
Mansfield
5.6%
Stafford
5.6%
Fairfield
5.2%
Archerfield
5.6%
Everton Park
5.6%
Coorparoo
5.2%
Days on market (units) Inner South
Mid South
Mid North 11.4%
Gaythorne
22
Greenslopes
24
Red Hill
17
Carina Heights
Coorparoo
28
Newmarket
24
Holland Park
10.8%
Enoggera
25
Morningside
35
Alderley
26
Tingalpa
5.2%
Indooroopilly
26
Yeerongpilly
22
Source: CoreLogic
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Inner North
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INSPIRATION STYLING
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How property styling will elevate your home Styling your home professionally can help your property campaign stand out in the market against other listings. Charlotte Dub, National Commercial Manager for Coco Republic, says that for almost all properties, styling reduces time on market and improves profitability. We sat down with Dub to gain her insights on property styling and its impact on sales. What is the difference in styling a home for sale and furnishing a home to live in? What is the difference in styling a home for sale and furnishing a home to live in?
Why should sellers get their properties styled?
Styling a home for sale requires a completely different approach from furnishing a home to live in. When styling a home to live in, we take a brief from the owner and find out what they enjoy doing in the house and how we can design to make their space more conducive to their hobbies. We need to identify practical uses of the space before we even think of furniture.
Most people do not have an interior designed home, because it can be difficult to actually live in. That’s where a property stylist can step in and curate spaces in the home to give it a better chance of selling.
Contrastingly, the goal of styling for sale is to appeal to the widest range of buyers. This means decorating the property in the way that most people will want to live in it. Property styling can also help to compose perfect photography and emphasise the space in the home. There’s also the question of how the agent will take potential purchasers through the property, and how the furniture is conducive to this flow. Also, it’s about how many potential buyers will come through. If there are expected to be over 6 groups of buyers inspecting the property at a time, then it is likely that there will need to be less furniture in the property so that it doesn’t feel cramped.
By having a property styled, you can be assured that you have put your best foot forward and are enabling purchasers to see your property presented at its absolute maximum. From anecdotal evidence, I often experience that styled homes sell more quickly and more profitably. In fact, recently some of our styled homes in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney sold in just 6 days. Another important reason to get your property styled is that almost all Australian homeowners highly value interior design. I would go as far as saying that interior design is at the forefront of Australian home living. We have bestselling publications and prime time television shows all based around the importance of home styling and the impact that it can make. Having a beautifully decorated home is clearly a goal of Australian homeowners, so it’s important to appeal to this.
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What target market do you style the property for?
What design trends are you seeing in homes this year?
Although we try to appeal to the widest range of buyers possible, we still need some direction, so our target market completely depends on the property. We often break down the target market by location, demographic and expected purchaser profile.
Of course, people are opting for more home offices due to increased working from home. But more interestingly, we are seeing lots of warm tones being brought into the colour palette. Grey had its time in the sun, but now we are being bolder with our colour choices. Often, people are choosing a cool palette with accents of warmer tones. A balance is always a great option. Also indoor and outdoor living is a continuous trend but has been brought to a peak as people are starting to entertain at home far more instead of going out.
Our stylists also have strong relationships with the agents who sell the premium properties that we style. This allows them to have a frank chat with the agent about who they think this home will sell to and who the styling should be geared towards. When you style a property, where do sellers live? This answer strongly depends on the seller’s personal situation. It is, of course, most ideal when they have already found another property and have moved their furniture into the new property. However, this is seldom the situation as not many people can buy a home without selling their current one. Styling the property when it is empty is clearly the easiest way to do things, but more often than not we practice “integration”. When the person is still living in the home with their furniture, we recommend they put some or all their furniture in storage and continue to live at the property with the styled furniture. If they have some good pieces to include, we will often keep them in the house and style around these pieces, otherwise known as “integration”. This is the most common way of styling.
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What can homeowners do before they get their home styled? After our initial consultation at Coco Republic we do give some advice specific to the property. But overall, our main piece of advice is to declutter, as purchasers won’t buy a house that they can’t see. Take most personal clutter down because it makes it difficult for potential buyers to attach themselves to the property, although a few tasteful family portraits are usually ok. Another tip is to give everything a fresh coat of paint, especially to any loudly coloured feature walls. It’s important to appeal to a mass market so neutral walls are key. It’s also important to freshen up the outside of your property with some paint as well as tidying the outside. It’s also crucial to use each space as it’s intuitively meant to be used. For example, if you’ve made a dining room into a bedroom, it just wont feel right and buyers might be confused. Make sure to return to the traditional way your house was laid out.
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atlas.com.au Atlas by LJ Hooker