2019_The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia

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The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia

Julian Alexander Bolleter

To cite this article: Julian Alexander Bolleter (2018) The consequences of three urbanisation scenarios for northern Australia, Australian Planner, 55:2, 103-125, DOI: 10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/07293682.2019.1620302

Published online: 04 Jun 2019.

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TheconsequencesofthreeurbanisationscenariosfornorthernAustralia

JulianAlexanderBolleter

AustralianUrbanDesignResearchCentre,UniversityofWesternAustralia,Perth,Australia

ABSTRACT

TheAustralianfederalgovernmentwhitepaper ‘Ournorth,ourfuture’ projectsthatnorthern Australia’spopulationcouldreach5,000,000by2060.Thisrepresentsanalmostfour-fold increaseinpopulation(anadditional3,700,000people)allwithinthenext41years.Given theambiguitiesintheWhitepaperaboutthedistributionofthispopulation,thispaper venturesthreesettlementpatternscenariostoexploretheissuesthesemaypose.Thepaper concludesthatpopulationgrowthofthescaleprojectedwillrequirecomprehensive,long termplanning – withoutsuchplanningthescaleofpopulationgrowthprojectedcouldresult innegativeenvironmentalandsocietalconsequences.Assuch,thedisciplineofplanningin Australiashouldbeawareofthisemergingsituation.

Introduction

ThispaperdefinesnorthernAustraliaastheregion northoftheTropicofCapricorn(23.5′ Slatitude). Thisencompassesanareaof3,500,000squarekilometres,or45%ofAustralia’stotallandmass,yethouses only5%ofitspopulation.Despiteitssparsehabitation, northernAustraliacontainsseveralsmallcities,major towns,andremotecommunities.InWesternAustralia, themajorcentresincludethetouristtownofBroome (population15,000)andtheminingtownsofPort HedlandandKarratha(population15,000and 17,000,respectively).IntheNorthernTerritory, theseincludetheadministrativecityofDarwin (106,000),andinQueensland,thelifestylecitiesof Cairns,TownsvilleandMackay(population140,000, 170,000and115,000,respectively),amongothers (Figure1).

Proponentsofnortherndevelopmentenvisage often-extremepopulationgrowth,inpart,becauseof theregion’sgrowinggeopoliticalimportance.Indeed, northernAustraliasitsattheintersectionofthe ‘two mostimportantglobalaxesofthetwenty firstcentury: Asiaandthetropics’ (Roux,Faubell,andMcGauchie 2014,xi) – tworegionsthatareprojectedtogrowsignificantlyintermsofpopulationandeconomicmight. Nonetheless,northernAustraliacontinuestobeconsidereda ‘frontier’ commensurate,tosomedegree, withhistoricfrontierssuchastheAmericanWest, theCanadianWestandNorth,China’sSinkiangand Manchuria,andtheSouthernAfricanveldt(Cohen 2000,256).Becausehistoricalattemptsatintensive developmenthavebeensporadic,northernAustralia offersthelargestintact ‘savannaremainingonEarth, anextraordinarilyvast,naturallandscapewitha

ARTICLEHISTORY

Received20June2018

Accepted6May2019

KEYWORDS NorthernAustralia; populationgrowth;climate change;settlementpatterns; scenarioplanning

richbiodiversityofinternationalsignificance ’ (Nix etal. 2013,85).Indigenousculturallifeinnorthern Australiaalsoremainsstrong,boundtothelandscapes, rivers,andwildlifethatthesetraditionalownershave managedfortensofthousandsofyears.Nonetheless, indigenouspeopleinnorthernAustraliaalsocontinue toexperience ‘chronicdisadvantage’ (Raupachetal. 2012,29).

Governmentplansfordevelopingnorthern Australia

Currentfederalgovernmentplanningfornorthern Australiaisencapsulatedinthe ‘Ournorth,ourfuture: whitepaperondevelopingNorthernAustralia’ (AustralianGovernment 2015,1).Adoptingagenerally pro-developmentstance,inlinewiththeconceptualisationofthenorthasaplaceofeconomicbountyand opportunity,thewhitepaperdeclaresthatitshould ‘standthetestoftime – itshouldbethe first,and last,whitepaperforthenorth’ (AustralianGovernment 2015,1).Soastofasttrackgrowth,thefederal governmenthascommittedtoprovidinganew$5billionNorthernAustralianInfrastructureFacilitytoprovideconcessionalloansfortheconstructionofmajor infrastructuressuchasports,roads,rail,pipelines, andelectricityandwatersupply(AustralianGovernment 2015, 8).Whilethewhitepaperismuteonissues ofsettlementpatterns,therearegeneralstatementsthat alludetothegovernment’ssupportforsignificant urbanisation.Asthereportdeclares:

Developmentwillrequiremanymorepeoplelivingin thenorth.Transformationwillnothappenifitspopulationinchesupbyafewhundredthousandoverthe next20years.Itwouldremainahighcost,small-

Figure1. NorthernAustraliaexistingtownsandcitiesbypopulation:Despiteitsgenerallysparsehabitation,northernAustralia does,containanumberofsmallcitiesandmajortowns.Planbytheauthor.

scaleeconomy;moreofapilotprojectthanapowerhouse.Weneedtolaythefoundationsforrapidpopulationgrowthandputthenorthonatrajectoryto reachapopulationoffourto fivemillionby2060. (AustralianGovernment 2015,4)

GivennorthernAustralia’scurrentpopulationof 1,3,000,000(AustralianGovernment 2015,134),this representsanalmostfour-foldincreaseinpopulation (anadditional3,700,000people).Thesubsequent expansionintheurbanarearequiredisequivalentto 22newTownsvilles,36newDarwins,or253new Broomes – allwithinthenext43years.Inthisrespect thewhitepaperambiguouslyrefersto ‘thedevelopmentofmajorpopulationcentresofmorethana millionpeople’ (AustralianGovernment 2015,3) –suchcitieswouldbesixtimesthesizeofthecurrentlargestcityTownsville,whichhasapopulationof170,000 people.

ThereisarichhistoryinAustraliaofprojecting over-ambitioustargetsforpopulationgrowth.Onthe 1888centenaryofthearrivaloftheFirstFleetinSydney,acorrespondentforthe Spectator newspaper notedthat ‘Thereiseveryreasonableprobabilitythat in1988AustraliawillbeaFederalRepublic,peopled by50,000,000Englishspeakingmen’ (Soutphommasane 2012,132).Subsequently,othershaveambitiously pitchedAustralia’scarryingcapacityasbeingashighas 500,000,000(Cathcart 2010) – aprojectionmadejust

aftertheFirstWorldWar – dwarfingAustralia’ scurrentpopulationof23,000,000byafactorof20.NorthernAustraliahasbeenthebackdropforsuch projectionsaswell.Inthemid-1980s,theNorthern TerritoryGovernmentestablishedamanufacturing TradeDevelopmentZone(TDZ),inDarwin.The NorthernTerritoryGovernmentinvestedmorethan $26,000,000incapitalworkintheTDZ,hopingto expandDarwininto ‘acityof2,750,000people’ by 2010(WuandWinchester 2015,259) – itscurrent populationbeingjustover100,000.

Thecurrentcity,stateorterritoryplanningofthe northdoesnotcountenancethescaleofpopulation growthprojectedinthegovernment’swhitepaper ‘Ournorth,ourfuture’.Eventhe2017 ‘Ournorth, ourfuture’ Implementationreportreleasedbythe OfficeofNorthernAustraliahasminimalcommentary onnorthernsettlementpatterns(OfficeofNorthern Australia 2017,22).1 TheplanforCairnsandthesurroundingFarNorthQueenslandregionscopesthe periodto2031andanadditionalpopulationinthe Cairnsregionofonly100,000people(Queensland Government 2009,12).Similarly,theplanningscheme forTownsvillehasascopethatextendsto2031anda populationincreaseofonly110,000people(Townsville CityCouncil 2017,3).Moreover,the ‘StrategicPlanfor Darwin’,preparedbytheCityofDarwin,onlyscopesa periodto2020andacomparativelyminorpopulation

increaseof22,000people(CityofDarwin 2012,18) –despitebeingbilledasthe ‘long-termvisionfor Darwin’ (CityofDarwin 2012,22).AswithAustralia generally,planningcontinuestobeorganisedona city-by-cityandstateandterritorybasis(Freestone 2014,7),andassuchisspatiallyfragmented.

Thisresearchpaperisimportantbecausethecoincidenceof(potentially)rapidpopulationgrowth,arelativelackoflong-termplanning,anda ‘natural landscapewitharichbiodiversityofinternationalsignificance ’ (Nixetal. 2013,85)areconcerning.Biodiversitylossesandspeciesextinctionsoverthenext centuryareexpectedtobehigh,driveninpartbyclimatechangeandlandusechangesthatconvertnatural vegetationtourbanuses(Dorningetal. 2015,28;Villarrealetal. 2013,90).Thisisparticularlythecasein relationtourbanisationontheoutskirtsofcitiesthat frequentlyoverlapwithlocationsrichinbiodiversity (Dorningetal. 2015,28),suchasinnorthernAustralia. Moreover,thisresearchisimportantbecausenorthern AustraliancitiessuchasDarwin,andtownssuchas PortHedland,experienceelevatedlevelsofsocioeconomicstratificationbetweencentralandfringing urbanareas.Forreasonsofsocietalinclusivityand cohesiveness,itiscrucialthatpotentiallyrapidlygrowingcitiesinnorthernAustraliadonotcompoundthis issue.

Method

Withtheseissuesinmind,thisresearchpaperexplores thefollowingresearchquestion:

WhatarethepossibleenvironmentalandsocietalconsequencesofdifferentdistributionsofanorthernAustralianpopulationof5,000,000?

Whilethecredibilityofthefederalgovernment’ s populationprojectionsfor2060isdebatable,given thatAustralia’soverallpopulationisofficiallyprojected todoubleto42,400,000inthesametimeperiod – and tripleto70,100,000by21012 (AustralianBureauof Statistics 2013) – suchanapparentlymodestincrease ofpopulationinnorthernAustraliaisconceivable overthelongerterm.Toexploretheimplicationsof thisscaleofpopulationgrowthinnorthernAustralia, thefollowingsectionsetsoutthreescenarios,which distributethispotentialpopulationof5,000,000in differentforms.

This ‘singlethemed’3 scenarioplanningexercise (XiangandClarke 2003,897) – inwhichpopulation distributionformsthedominantdimension – builds onpreviousland-developmentscenarioswhichhave ‘beenintheplanner’stoolkitforseveraldecades’ (Chakrabortyetal. 2011,251;XiangandClarke 2003, 885).Inessence,itprovidesspatialrepresentationsof possiblefutureurbanurbanisationandlandscape change(Villarrealetal. 2013,90),whichcouldresult

fromparticularpopulationdistributions.Itisintended thatthisprocesswillexposedifferentwaysofthinking aboutaccommodatingpopulationgrowthinthenorth, inawaythatcanopenadialoguearoundthisissue,not prescribea ‘correctanswer’ (Logg-Scarvell,Navis,and Patrick 2015,51).

Inansweringthisresearchquestion,weconsider threedifferentscenariosforhowthefederalgovernmentcouldseektodistributethisnorthernAustralian populationof5,000,000by2060(AustralianGovernment 2015) – andwhichwebelieveareplausible (Figure2).Wehaveconstructedscenario1 ‘growth’ ontheassumptionthatpopulationgrowthwillmagnify theexistingdistributionofurbanpopulationinnorthernAustralia,i.e.,thatthefourbiggesturbancentres willcontinuetogetbigger.Inthisscenario,economic andlifestylefactorsconcentratetheincreasedpopulationofnorthernAustralianinthefourdominant northerncitiesDarwin,Cairns,TownsvilleandMackay – allwhichwouldhavepopulationsjustover1,000,000 by2060.

Wehaveconstructedscenario2 ‘decentralised growth’ ontheassumptionthatfederalplanningfor thedecentralisationofurbanpopulationwillachieve relativepopulation ‘balance’ acrossnorthernAustralia, i.e.federal,stateandterritorygovernmentswilldecant populationgrowthacrosstheeightbiggesturban centresinnorthernAustralia.Inthisscenario,topdowngovernmentplanning – typicaloftheDepartmentofUrbanandRegionalDevelopmentinthe 1970s(Oakley 2004) – seesPortHedland,Broome, Kununurra,Darwin,Cairns,Bowen,Townsvilleand McKayincreaseinpopulationby462,000peopleeach.

Wehaveconstructedscenario3 ‘concentrated growth’ ontheassumptionthattheprimacyofcapital citieswhichcharacterisespopulationdistribution acrosssouthernAustralia(Freestone 2013)willapply innorthernAustralia,i.e.populationgrowthisconcentratedinaprimatecity.Inthisscenarioeconomic opportunitiesseenorthernAustralia’sgrowingpopulationconcentratedinDarwin,the ‘ unofficialcapital ofthenorth’ , whichwouldgrowby1,500,000people by2060,reachingatotalof1,622,000.This figureis commensuratewiththeAustralianfederalgovernment’s2015visionofnortherncitieswith ‘morethan amillionpeople’ by2060(AustralianGovernment 2015,3).Theothercitiesofthenorthwouldaccommodatetheremaining2,200,000peoplecollectively.These threescenariosprovidereasonablecoverageacrossa spectrumoffutures.

Inunderstandingtheenvironmentalconsequences ofthesedifferentscenarioswehaveconducteda McHargianlandscapeanalysis(McHarg 1971)ofthe peri-urbanregionsofthenorthernAustralia’smajor cities(Darwin,Cairns,TownsvilleandMackay)to understandwhatlandcouldbeurbanisedtoaccommodatetheincreasedpopulationofthevariousscenarios

Figure2. Scenariooverview.Inthispaper,weconsiderthreedifferentscenariosforhowthefederalgovernmentcouldseekto distributeanorthernAustralianpopulationof3,700,000additionalpeopleby2060.

(Figure3).Areassuitableforurbanexpansionwehave definedasthosethatdonotcontainremnantvegetation,foreshore flats, flats,watercoursesorexcessivelysteeptopography,arenotpronetobushfires, arenotdesignatedreservesandarewithin50kmof existingcitycentres.Thismethodderivesfromconservationplanninginwhichconservationpriorityareas areprotected,essentiallyremovingthemfromeligibilityfordevelopment(Dorningetal. 2015,29;Forman 2010,200)(Figures4–7).Suchaconservationplanning approachisrelevantinthenorthofAustraliagenerally becausethenorthisan ‘extraordinarilyvast,natural landscapewitharichbiodiversityofinternationalsignificance ’ (Nixetal. 2013,85).

WehaveconductedthisgeospatialanalysisprincipallyusingtheGeoscienceAustralia1:250,000data set(GeoscienceAustralia 2018),aGeoscienceAustralia (1secondSRTM)DigitalElevationmodel(Australia 2010)and firescarmappinginrelationtobush fires (NationalClimateChangeAdaptionResearchFacility 2018).Thislandscapeanalysisleavesuspotentially developableareasthatwemeasuretoestimatetheir capacitytoabsorbtheFederalgovernmentproposed populationgrowth.

Forman’sanalysispointstoaclearorderingofthe urbanisationmodelsfrombesttoworstintermsof theireffectsonbiodiversity:(1)satellitecities;(2)concentriczones;(3)transportationcorridorsand(4)dispersedsites.Urbanisationindispersedsites surroundingametropolitanareacancauseextensive nature-and-humanresourcedegradation,andthus plannersandpolicymakersshouldavoidorminimise thisstrategy.Widestripsofdevelopmentalonghighwaycorridors(3)usuallydegradecreeksandrivers crossingtheregion,andblockmovementpatternsof certainkeywildlifespecies,leavingthemsemi-isolated insmallersectionsoftheregion(Forman 2010,221). WeuseForman’sorderingtoassess,inbroad-brush terms,thepotentialimpactsonbiodiversity.

Inunderstandingthesocietalconsequencesofthe differentscenariosweconsiderthelengthofsprawl oftheurbanformwhichresultsfromthisprocess andreflectontheabilityofgovernmenttoefficiently serviceitwithpublictransportandthusprovide accessforresidentsinnewareastotheemployment opportunities,culturalattractionsandconveniences oftheexistingurbancentres.Wealsoconsiderthe abilityofresidentsofnewurbanareastoaccessthe naturalamenityofthecoastline.Bothofthesecriteria areimportant,andpublictransportandaccessto naturalamenityaredefiningfactorsofacity’sliveability(TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited 2012,8).Moreover,therearenumerousexamples innorthernAustraliawheregovernmentshave

Presumingdevelopersdevelopthisremainingarea, wethenconsidertheimpactsonbiodiversityofthis urbanform.Thebroad-brushanalysisweconductin relationtorenownedurbanecologistRichardForman’ s foururbanmodelsforaccommodatingurbangrowth. The firstis ‘satellitecities’ whichinvolvesfocusing urbanisationconcurrentlyaroundsatellitecitiesinan urbanregiontohelptoprotectthelandnearadominantmetropolitanareawhichmaybeofconsiderable ecologicalimportance(Forman 2010,201).Thesecond is ‘concentriczones’ whichinvolvesconcentricyet compactgrowtharoundanexistingcity(Forman 2010,202).Thethirdis ‘transportationcorridors’ and involvesstripdevelopmentalongamajorradialtransportationcorridorwhichprogressivelysubdividesthe landscape(Forman 2010,201).Thefourthis ‘dispersed sites’ whichinvolvesdisperseddevelopmentandproducesawidezoneofrelativelylow-densitydevelopment,orsprawl,aroundthecity(Forman 2010,202) (Figure8).

Figure3. McHargianlandscapeanalysis.Inthispaper,wehaveusedaMcHargiananalysistodeterminethecapacityoftheperiurbanregionsofnorthernAustralia’scitiestoaccommodateurbanexpansion.

struggledtoconnectfar-flungsuburbswithdominant citycentres,andthishasresultedinelevatedlevelsof socio-economicdisadvantagebeingconcentredin outersuburbs.ExamplesincludetheDarwinsuburb ofPalmerston,theRadburn-plannedsuburbofPort Hedland,SouthHedland(Neilson 1983,91),and theHeavitreeGapsuburbofAliceSprings(Carter 2016,94).

Inestimatingthedegreeof ‘sprawl ’ ineachscenario,wehaveusedapopulationdensityof1000

Figure4. Darwinconstraints.AMcHargianlandscapeanalysisoftheperi-urbanareasofDarwinrevealssubstantialconstraintsto urbanisationsuchaslowlying flatsandforeshore flatsandremnantvegetation:Key1.Darwinbuiltuparea;2.ShoalBayCoastal Reserve;3.MelaccaSwampConservationArea;4.MantonDam;5.LitchfieldNationalPark.

Figure5. Cairnsconstraints.AMcHargianlandscapeanalysisoftheperi-urbanareasofCairnsrevealssubstantialconstraintsto urbanisationsuchasdesignatedreserves,forestsandsignificanttopographicfeatures:Key1.LittleMulgraveNationalPark;2.KurandaNationalPark;3.BilwonForestReserve;4.BaldyMountain.

Figure6. TownsvilleConstraints.AMcHargianlandscapeanalysisoftheperi-urbanareasofTownsvillerevealssubstantialconstraintstourbanisationsuchaslowlyingforeshore flats,designatedreserves,forestsandsigni ficanttopographicfeatures:Key 1.MountSurroundShirbourne;2.MountCateract;3.MingelaStateForest.

Figure7. Mackayconstraints.AMcHargianlandscapeanalysisoftheperi-urbanareasofMackayrevealsthatithassubstantial reservesoflandforpotentialurbanisation:Key1.CapePalmerston;2.BenMohrStateForest;3.MountCharlton.

peoplepersquarekilometretohousetheincreased populationsinthethreescenarios.Thisdensityis broadlycommensuratewithAustraliancitiessuchas Townsville,Brisbane,PerthandtheGoldCoast, whichareamongsttheleastdenselysettledinthe world(Hunn 2017 ).

Figure8. Modelsofurbanexpansion.Thisdiagramshows RichardTForman’smodelsforurbanexpansion.Forman’s analysispointstoaclearorderingoftheurbanisationmodels frombesttoworstintermsoftheireffectsonbiodiversity: (1)satellitecities;(2)concentriczones;(3)transportationcorridorsand(4)dispersedsites.

Results

Scenario1:Growth

Inthisscenario,earlytwenty-first-centurytrends towardseconomiccentralisationandprimacy4 inAustraliancitiescontinue,andthereforenorthernpopulationgrowthprincipallyoccursinthenorth’sfour majorcities.ThisresultsinasituationwherethedominantnortherncitiesDarwin,Cairns,Townsvilleand Mackayallhavepopulationsoverjustover1,000,000 by2060.Suchdominantgatewaycities,by2060,are commensurateinpopulationsizewiththeAustralian federalgovernment’s2015visionofnortherncities with ‘morethanamillionpeople’ (AustralianGovernment 2015,3).Asagateway, ‘beta’ globalcities,these centrescouldbecomeinstrumentalinlinkingtheir respectiveterritoriesintotheworldeconomy(Gussen 2017,27)(Figure9).

ThisadditionalpopulationforDarwin,Cairns, TownsvilleandMackayrequires925km2 ofurban expansionineachcityregion.Atthesametimethe amountofunconstrainedlandinDarwin,Cairns, TownsvilleandMackayis296,1798,957and 2303km2,respectively(withina50kmradiusofthe existingcitycentres).Thispointstoobviousgrowth capacityissuesinDarwinandTownsville(Figure10).

Thisextremegrowthinthemajorcitiesofthe north – a900%increaseintheirexistingpopulation sizeinfourdecades – isconcerningparticularlyif policymakersandplannersdonotcomprehensively planforitduetothespatialfragmentationofplanning,limitedtimeframesandalackofbipartisan agreementbetweenopposingfederalandstategovernments.Asaresult,itcouldleadtoseveralnegativeoutcomes.

Environmentalandsocietalimplicationsfor Darwin

TheaddedpopulationforDarwinrequires925km2 of urbanexpansion,atthesametimeDarwinhasonly 296km2 ofnon-constrainedland(withina50km radiusoftheexistingcitycentre)(Figure11).Theresult ofthiscouldbethatdevelopersconductlarge-scale clearingofremnantvegetationtocreatetherequired areaofurbanisation.Darwinwouldalsosprawlinthe formofForman’ s ‘transportationcorridor’ model whichwouldlikelydegradecreeksandriverscrossing theregionandblockmovementpatternsofcertain keywildlifespecies(Forman 2010,221).

Thesocietalimplicationsofthislevelofgrowth couldbenegative.Ifforestedorwaterloggedlandscapes wererespectedDarwinwouldsprawlintheformofa longcorridorvirtuallyconnectingDarwintoHumpty DooandAcaciaHills.Thissprawlwouldbedifficult toservewithpublictransport(duetothelengthofthe corridorform)andwouldofferpooraccesstothe coastandtheculturalamenityandjobswhichDarwin’ s citycentreoffers,aswellaspotentiallyconcentrating socio-economicdeprivationinfar-flunginlandsuburbs.

Environmentalandsocietalimplicationsfor Cairns

TheaddedpopulationforCairnsrequires925km2 of urbanexpansionandCairnshas1798km2 ofnonconstrainedland(withina50kmradiusoftheexistingcitycentre)(Figure12).Nonetheless,ifplanning andconstraintsprotectedforested, flood-proneand steeplandscapesfromurbandevelopmentCairns wouldrequirethedevelopmentofinlandareas(in thevicinityofMareeba,AthertonandGordonvale) intheformofForman’s(4)dispersedsitesmodel (4)andurbandevelopmentwouldalsosprawlina ‘transportationcorridor’ model(3)alongthecoastal striptoBabinda,

Thiscorridordevelopmentalongthecoastwould degradecreeksandriverscrossingtheregion,and blockmovementpatternsofcertainkeywildlifespecies (Forman 2010,221).Thedispersedsuburbsinlandof Cairn’sexistingcitycentrewouldbedifficulttoserve witheffectivepublictransportandwouldofferpoor accesstothejobsofthecitycentreandthenatural amenityofthecoastandinlandareas.

Environmentalandsocietalimplicationsfor Townsville

TheadditionalpopulationforTownsvillerequires 925km2 ofurbanexpansionwhichisroughlycommensuratewithTownsville’s957km2 ofnon-constrainedland(withina50kmradiusoftheexisting citycentre)(Figure13).Theadditional925km2 of urbanisationrequiredinthisscenariowouldmean Townsvillewouldsprawl,tosomedegree,intheform

Figure9. Scenario1:Growth.Inthisscenario,northernpopulationgrowthprincipallyoccursinthenorth’sfourmajorcities.This resultsinasituationwherethedominantnortherncitiesDarwin,Cairns,TownsvilleandMackay(andadjacenttowns)allhavepopulationsoverjustover1,000,000by2060Planbytheauthor.

Figure10. Scenario1:Growth.Thisgraphshowsthecapacityforurbanexpansionbycity:thisgraphshowsgrowthcapacityissues inDarwinandTownsville.

ofForman’ s ‘transportationcorridors’ modelalongthe coastandina ‘dispersedsites’ modelaroundtheexistingcentresofGiruandWoodstock,totheeastand westofMountSurround.Thesedispersedsuburbs (nearGiruandWoodstock)couldsuffermanyofthe sameaccessibilityofthosesurroundingCairnsand accordingtoFormancouldcauseextensivenatureand-humanresourcedegradation(Forman 2010,221).

Figure11. Scenario1:Growth – Darwin.Theadditional925km2 ofurbanisationrequiredinthisscenariowouldmeanDarwin wouldsprawlintheformofaForman’s ‘transportationcorridor’ modelasfarasHumptyDoo(1)andAcaciaHills(2).

Figure12. Scenario1:Growth – Cairns.Theadditional925km2 ofurbanisationrequiredinthisscenariowouldmeanCairnswould sprawlintheformofaForman’s ‘transportationcorridors ’ modelasfarasBabinda(4)andina ‘dispersedsites’ modelaroundthe existingcentresofMareeba(1),Atherton(2)andMalanda(3).

Figure13. Scenario1:Growth – Townsville.Theadditional925km2 ofurbanisationrequiredinthisscenariowouldmeanCairns wouldsprawl,tosomedegree,inForman’s ‘transportationcorridors’ modelalongthecoastandina ‘dispersedsites’ modelaround theexistingcentresofGiru(1)andWoodstock(2),totheeastandwestofMountSurround(3).

Figure14. Scenario1:Growth – Mackay.TheadditionalpopulationforMackayrequires925km2 howeverMackayshouldbeableto easilyaccommodatesuchgrowth.ThisgrowthcouldseetheareasaroundMarian(1)andAlligatorCreek(2)urbanisedinwhat Formandescribesasthe ‘concentriczones’ model.

Environmentalandsocietalimplicationsfor Mackay

TheadditionalpopulationforMackayrequires 925km2 ofurbandevelopment;however,Mackay shouldbeabletoeasilyaccommodatesuchgrowthin thesubstantialamountofunconstrainedlandwithin a50kmradiusoftheexistingurbancentre(Figure14). Populationgrowthofthisscalecouldseetheareas aroundMarian(1)andAlligatorCreek(2)urbanised inwhatFormandescribesasthe ‘concentriczones’ model(Forman 2010,202)whichgovernmentscould fairlyeasilyservicewithpublictransportandwhich shouldnotcausesubstantialenvironmental degradation.

Summationofscenario1implications

ExceptforMackay,theprevalenceofForman’ s ‘transportationcorridors’ and ‘dispersedsites’ modelin Darwin,MackayandTownsvilleisconcerningfrom anenvironmentalandsocietalperspective.Inthis scenario,theriskisthatultimatelythegrowthofDarwin,CairnsandTownsville,inparticular,could degradethenaturalamenitywhichatcurrentisthe region’stourismandmigrationdrawcard(Bohnet andPert 2010,239).Moreover,thisextremepopulationgrowthcouldleadtoresentmentfromexisting residentstowardsbothoverseasandAustralianimmigrantsthattheyregardasthreateningtheaccessthe relaxedlifestyleandaccesstonatureoriginally offeredbythesecomparativelysmallcities(Bohnet andPert 2010,246).Thesecitiescouldalsobecome heavilystratifiedbetweenthosewhocanaffordhousinginconvenientandamenableinnerandmiddle areasandthoseconsignedtopoorlyconnected outersuburbs.

Scenario2:Decentralisedgrowth

Inthisscenariofederal,stateandterritorygovernments distributetheincreasedpopulationofnorthernAustralianintotheeightmostsignificanturbancentres.Asa result,PortHedland,Broome,Kununurra,Darwin, Cairns,Bowen,TownsvilleandMcKaywouldincrease inpopulationby462,000peopleeach(Figure15).The urbanexpansion – percentre – requiredtocontainthis additionalpopulationwouldbe462km2.Againthese projectionsarebasedonalowpopulationdensityof 1000peoplepersquarekilometrefoundinAustralian citiessuchasBrisbane,PerthandtheGoldCoast (Hunn 2017).

Afederalgovernment-driven ‘NorthernCities’ taskforcecoulddeliversuchapatternofpopulationdistributionifitwasauthorisedtodelineatefutureurban growthareas,establishspatiallimitsforexisting centres,andcoordinatecityinfrastructurespending (Haratsis 2010,248)inamannerthatisreminiscent oftheDepartmentofUrbanandRegional

Developmentfromthe1970s(Oakley 2004,299).The delineationoffuturegrowthareaswouldneedtobe determinedbyasystematicanalysisofenablinginfrastructuresuchasexistingportsandinternationalairports,securewatersupplies,economicdevelopment prospects,climate,distancefromcoast,presentpopulation,environmentalfragility,andhumancarrying capacity5 (Cocks 1992,216).

Significantfederalgovernmentinvestmentininfrastructurewouldassistinenablingthedecentralisation ofpopulationgrowth.Suchinvestmentscouldinclude theforgingofapassengerandfreightrailnetwork betweenBroomeandKarrathaonthewestcoast(connectionthe ‘lifestylecity’ ofBroometotheeconomic powerhouseofthePilbaraandthedeep-waterportat PortHedland6)andanupgradedpassengerandfreight linebetweenCairnsandRockhampton(reflectinga similarlifestyletoeconomicpowerhousedynamic). AnefficientregionalrailservicefromPortHedland toBroometripwouldtake3hoursandtheCairnsto Rockhampton5hours.Complementingtheserailconnectionscouldbearegionalrailspurlinefromthe AdelaidetoDarwinraillinetoWyndhamandKununurratoDarwin.ThiscouldconnectthecityofDarwin withthesignificantlyexpandedOrdRiverIrrigation areathatprovidesthecitywithmuchofitsfood.

Environmentalandsocietalimplications

Theurbanexpansion – percentre – requiredtocontain theadditionalpopulationinthisscenariowouldbe 462km2.Thisamountofurbanexpansionposesissues forDarwin(themostconstrainedofthenortherncities withonly296km2 ofdevelopableland)butcouldcomfortablybeaccommodatedinCairns(1798km2), Townsville(957km2)andMackay(2303km2)which allhavesubstantialreservesofnon-constrainedland (withina50kmradiusoftheexistingcitycentres)for thisexpansiontooccur(Figure16).WhileDarwin wouldsprawlinatransportationcorridorswhich degradescreeksandriverscrossingtheregion,and blocksmovementpatternsofcertainkeywildlifespecies – Cairns,TownsvilleandMackayshouldbeableto accommodatethisgrowthinForman’sconcentric zonesmodelwhichinvolvesconcentricyetcompact growtharoundanexistingcity(2010,202)and shouldn’tleadtoextensiveenvironmentaldegradation.

Moreover,themoderatesizeofthesecitiesthat resultfromthisscenariocouldbeoptimalfornorthern Australiainthattheypotentiallyofferaccesstonatural amenityaswellasabalanceofjobopportunities,housingaffordability,income,schoolsizes,healthservices andlowcrimerates(MacDonald 2017).Moreover, thismodelofcompact,concentricsmall-sizedcities shouldbecomparativelyeasytoservewithpublic transportandshouldnotentrenchmajorsocio-economicdivisionsbetweencitycentreandperipheral suburbs.

Figure15. Scenario2:Decentralisedgrowth.Inthisscenariofederal,stateandterritorygovernmentsdistributetheincreasedpopulationofnorthernAustralianintotheeightmostsignificanturbancentres.Asaresult,PortHedland,Broome,Kununurra,Darwin, Cairns,Bowen,TownsvilleandMcKaywouldincreaseinpopulationby462,000peopleeach.

Importantlythroughestablishingsuchanetworked regionalstructureofeightcities,governmentscould foster ‘anurbanandruraldynamic’ whichisableto both ‘maintainhome-growncapacitylocallyand

attracthumancapitalfromelsewhere’ (Dale 2014, 139).Moreover,suchconnectionscouldbeofvital importancetoindigenousyouthandyoungadultsin remotecommunitieswhomsometimesareindesperate

Figure16. Scenario2:Decentralisedgrowth.Thisgraphshowsthecapacityforurbanexpansionbycity.Inthisscenario,thegraph revealscapacityissuesonlyinDarwin – theothercitieshavingcomparativelyhigheramountsofnon-constrainedlandforpotential urbanisation.

needofanescaperoutefromchronicdisadvantage (Raupachetal. 2012,29).

Scenario3:Concentratedgrowth

Inthisthirdscenario,thepresenceofeconomicopportunitiesconcentratesnorthernAustralia’sgrowing populationinDarwin,the ‘ unofficialcapitalofthe north’,whichwouldgrowby1,500,000peopleby 2060,reachingatotalof1,622,000(Figure17).This figureiscommensuratewiththeAustralianfederal government’s2015visionofnortherncitieswith ‘morethanamillionpeople’ by2060(AustralianGovernment 2015,3).Theothercitiesofthenorthwould accommodatetheremaining2,200,000people.This growthofpopulationinDarwincouldreflectthe ‘balanceandorientation’ ofthenationshiftingnorthwards (Carroll 2005,178).Moreover,itcouldbe,inpart,precipitatedbybuildingahigh-speedraillinkconnection Darwintothesoutherncities(Carroll 2005,178).

ADarwinof1,622,000wouldprobablyfunctionasa betalevelcityandwouldlikelybeinstrumentalinlinkingtheNorthernTerritoryintotheworldeconomy (Gussen 2017,27).Whilenotafullalphaglobalcity, itwould,tosomedegree,competeforglobalcapital andworkerswithothersmallercitiesintheadjacent region(Gussen 2017,26).ReflectingthisDarwin’ s

economycouldbepartlydrivenby ‘advancedproducer services’ includeaccounting,advertising, finance, insurance,andlawdeliveredtotheregion(Gussen 2017,26).ComplimentingtheserolescouldbeDarwin’sprominenceasanAustralianhubforglobaltertiaryeducationprovision(BolleterandWeller 2013) aswellasahubforadministeringresourceextraction operations.Reflectingthesedrivers,Darwin’ spopulationcouldcontinuetoberichlymulti-culturaland thecityagatewaytothe ‘AsianCentury’

Environmentalandsocietalimplications

Theurbanexpansionrequiredtocontainthisadditional populationforDarwinis1500km2 whichwoulddwarf Darwin’s296km2 ofdevelopablelandwithin50kmof theexistingcitycentre – butwouldcertainlytakethe pressureoff theothercities(Figure18).Nonetheless, Darwinwouldsprawlinatransportationcorridors model.Thisispotentiallyamajorissuefromabiodiversityperspectivebecausewidestripsofdevelopment alonghighwaycorridorsdegradecreeksandriverscrossingtheregion,andblockmovementpatternsofcertain keywildlifespecies(Forman 2010,221),moreoverthe citywouldinevitablysprawlintoareasofremnantvegetationandlowlying, flood-proneland – bothwhich wouldcauseextensiveenvironmentaldegradation (Figure19).

Figure17. Scenario3:Concentratedgrowth.Inthisthirdscenario,thepresenceofeconomicopportunitiesconcentratesnorthern Australia’sgrowingpopulationinDarwin,the ‘unofficialcapitalofthenorth’,whichwouldgrowby1,500,000peopleby2060, reachingatotalof1,622,000.

Figure18. Scenario3:Concentratedgrowth.Thisgraphshowsthecapacityforurbanexpansionbycity:thisgraphshowsgrowth capacityissuesinonlyinDarwinduetothelimitedavailabilityofunconstrainedland.Whilethisscenariowouldcausesignificant issuesforDarwinitcouldcertainlytakethepressureoff theothercities.

Givenitsconstrainedsite,theurbanexpansion requiredtocontainthisgrowthcouldoccurmuch furtherthan50kmfromtheexistingcentreofDarwin whenwemeasurethisdistancealongtheroadnetwork. Thistenuousconnectionbetweenoutersuburbsand citycentrecouldleadtosocio-economicstratification, asitwouldbedifficulttoservethesefringingsuburbs witheffectivepublictransportandassuchprovide theirresidentswithaccesstotheculturalamenity andjobopportunitiesofDarwin’scitycentre.While Darwin’sextremelyrapidgrowthcouldtakethe pressureoff othercitiesinthenorth,itcouldhowever alsotendtotrapmostfederalandinternationalinvestmentintheregion,andassuchlittleinvestmentwould makeitswaytoregionalareasofthenorth – possibly leadingtosomeresentmentfromotherpopulation centresandregions.

Discussion

Thereisnoone ‘correct’ settlementpatternfornorthernAustralia(Logg-Scarvell,Navis,andPatrick 2015, 51).Indeed,overthelongerterm,theanswerliesina hybridisedapproachthatutilisesthebestaspectsof thescenarios1and2inrelationtochangingconditions – suchasclimatechange,economicfortunes,governance,geopoliticsanddisruptivetransporttechnologies, amongstothers.

However,givenwhatwecurrentlyknow – inthe shortterm,buildingontheexistingstrengthsofthe majornortherncitiesmakesmuchsense(scenario1) – ifweemployaconcentriczonesmodel(Forman 2010,221).Thesecitiesarewheresubstantialinvestmentininfrastructurehasoccurredtodateand,ashis-

torytellsus,weshouldfullyutilisetheseinvestments beforelaunchingoff intotheregionsinregionalcity buildingexercises(Lonsdale 1972).Withprudentplanningofthesecitiesusingaconcentriczonesmodel, thereisalsonoreasontheliveability,economicviability,andvibrancyofthesecitiescannot flourish,at leastwithmeasuredincreasesinpopulation.

Overthelongerterm,giventheconstrainedsitesof citiessuchasDarwin,CairnsandTownsville,andlikely communityresistancetodramaticpopulation increases,therewillbespatialandsocietallimitsto theirpotentialgrowth,andassuchopportunitiesfor boostingotherregionalcentrestocitystatus(scenario 2) – inForman’ssatellitecitiesmodel(Forman 2010, 221).Anticipatingthetimingofthesetippingpoints – wheredecentralisationfromthenorth’slargercities toregionalcentreswillbecomefeasible – isnotoriously difficult.Nonetheless,itmaybethatthetippingpoints fornortherncitiesarearrivedatmuchearlierthanhas beenthecaseinthesouth;assuch,thismayoccurwell beforethenorth’scitiesreachapopulationofjustover amillionpeople(asdiscussedinrelationtoscenario1). Ofcourse,thedecentralisationofpopulationfrom thesedominantnortherncitieswillalsorequirea strongideallynationalplanningframeworkstocoordinatethispopulationdistributioninamannerwhichis efficientandequitable(Haratsis 2010,218).

Irrespectiveofthesettlementpatternscenario,withoutoverarching,longtermplanningframeworksto steerurbanisationinthenorth,populationgrowth willyieldnegativeenvironmentalandsocietaloutcomes(asscenarios1and3highlight).Boththe ‘Our north,ourfuture’ whitepaper,andtherelated implementationreport(OfficeofNorthernAustralia

Figure19. Scenario3 – Darwin.Inthisscenario,theurbanexpansionrequiredtocontainthisadditionalpopulationforDarwinis 1500km2 whichwoulddwarfDarwin’s296km2 ofdevelopablelandwithin50kmoftheexistingcitycentre.Ifplannersrespected theareasexistingvegetationandforeshore flatsthecitywouldsprawlinatransportationcorridorsmodelasfarasHumptyDoo(1) andAcaciaHills(2).

&AustralianGovernmentDepartmentofIndustry 2017) – lackthislong-term,holisticspatialplanning offuturesettlementpatterns.

Suchanoverarchingplanningframeworkrequiresa partnershipbetweenfederal,state/territory,andlocal governmentstodeviseandimplementabipartisan settlementstrategytosteertheurbanisationofnorthernAustralia.Policymakersandplannersshould developthisplaninrelationtoacomprehensivelandscapeanalysisofnorthernAustraliatounderstand whichspatialareashavethehighestcarryingcapacity, securewatersupplies,economicopportunity,and existinginfrastructuresuchasportsandairportsas wellasenvironmentalfragility – ananalysissimilar tothatwhichCSIROscientistDougCockscarried outin1992(Cocks 1992,216).

BrendanGleesonentitlessuchanoverarchingplanningframework,an ‘AustraliaPlan’ (2010,133),and BrianHaratsisproposesitcoulddelineatefuture urbangrowthareas,establishspatiallimitsforexisting cities,andbecoordinatedwithaninfrastructureplan directingnationalandglobalinfrastructurespending (2010,248).Onekeyaspectofsuchaplanshouldbe tolaythegroundworkforthedecentralisationofpopulationfromthedominantcitiesinthenorth – forwhen thetimeisright(scenario2).Thisdecentralisationis likelytobethemostopportuneintermsofmaintaining theliveabilityofexistingcitiesbutalsocausetheleast environmentaldegradation(Forman 2010,218).The scaleofplanning,asembodiedbyanAustraliaPlan (orsimilar),wouldbedependentonarenewedfederal governmentinvolvementinurbanmatters,reminiscentoftheDepartmentofUrbanandRegionalDevelopmentfromthe1970s(Oakley 2004,299).Whilean AustraliaPlanhasobviousvirtues,itissomething thatwouldbeextremelydifficulttoreconcilewiththe currentpoliticalclimate.Nonetheless,theneedfor thisscaleofplanningremains.

Regardlessofthepatternofpopulationdistribution inthenorth,apopulationof5,000,000coulddramaticallyoutstripthecarryingcapacityoftheland(Lane 2017).In2017,researchbyLanerevealedthateven thecurrentmeagrepopulationsoftheNorthernTerritoryandthenorthofWesternAustraliahavealready significantlyexceededthelandscape’scarrying capacity.Infact,theonlyareaofnorthernAustralia thathasn’toutstrippeditscarryingcapacityisthe ‘NorthernGulf’ regioneastofCairns(Lane 2017). WhilesouthernAustraliaalsohasissuesinthisrespect, particularlyalongtheeasternseaboard,theseissues paleincomparisontothoseinnorthernAustralia. Fromapopulationcarryingcapacityperspective,the federalgovernmentshoulddecidewhetherapopulationof5,000,000inthenorthissomethingthatwe shouldaspiretoatall.7 Moreover,inthelongerterm, iftheworstclimatechangeprojectionsareborneout, somedirectedmigrationfromfarnortherncities

suchasDarwintocitiesfurthersouthorindeedthe southernstatesmaybenecessary.Ofcourse,thisall dependsonourabilitytoreducecarbonemissions andlimitglobaltemperaturerise,forwhichthereexists amultitudeofprojectionsandopinions(Climate HomeNews 2017).

Thispaperhasadvancedthreepotentialscenarios foranorthernAustralianpopulationofupto 5,000,000,asprojectedinthe ‘Ournorth,ourfuture’ report(AustralianGovernment 2015,4).Thesescenariosraisethepossibledetrimentalsocietaland environmentaleffectsofthisscaleofpopulation growth,particularlyifnotplannedforinaholistic, long-termmanner.Wehaveintendedthispaperto actasabriefingtothedisciplineofplanninginAustralia – whichshouldbeconcernedwiththeseevolving issuesandlobbyinggovernmentthroughtheinstitute.

Notes

1.Itdoes,however,referto ‘CityDeals’ policy(recently establishedbytheAustralianGovernment)inwhich ‘thethreelevelsofgovernment,thecommunityand privateenterprise … worktoaligntheplanning, investmentandgovernancenecessarytoaccelerate growthandjobcreation,stimulateurbanrenewal anddriveeconomicreforms.’ Whileamuch-needed initiative,thispolicyiscity-speci ficandnotgeared todeliveringbroaderregionalsettlementpatterns (DepartmentofthePrimeMinisterandCabinet 2017).

2.Theseare ‘seriesA’ projectionsandarethehighestof thethreesetsofprojectionstheAustralianBureauof Statisticsproduces.

3.Usually,asingle-themedscenariosetcomprisestwoor threescenarios(XiangandClarke 2003,898).

4.Primacyreferstotheconcentrationofpopulationin thecapitalcities.Australiagenerallyexhibitsavery highdegreeofprimacywith64%ofAustraliansliving inthestatecapitalcities(Hugo 2012,18).

5.SuchacomprehensiveanalysiswasconductedbywellrespectedCSIROscientistDougCocksin1992(Cocks 1992,216).Cocks’ mappingandselectionofsitefor futureurbangrowthunderpinthis ‘decentralised growth’ scenario.

6.OnlyPortHeadlandandTownsvillehavesignificant deepwaterports(ProjectGutenberg 2017).

7.Thecurrentlimitedcarryingcapacityofthenorth meansthatDarwinhasAustralia’shighestecological footprintperperson(7.1hectares)comparedto southerncitiessuchasMelbourne(6.4hectares)or Hobart(5.7hectares)(TurnerandForan 2008,36).

Disclosurestatement

Nopotentialconflictofinterestwasreportedbytheauthor.

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