2021_Informing future Australian settlement planning using suitability analysis

International Planning Studies

ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/cips20

Julian Bolleter, Bill Grace, Robert Freestone & Paula Hooper

To cite this article: Julian Bolleter, Bill Grace, Robert Freestone & Paula Hooper (2021): Informing future Australian settlement planning through a national-scale suitability analysis, International Planning Studies, DOI: 10.1080/13563475.2021.1899903

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2021.1899903

Published online: 24 Mar 2021.

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INTERNATIONALPLANNINGSTUDIES https://doi.org/10.1080/13563475.2021.1899903

InformingfutureAustraliansettlementplanningthrougha national-scalesuitabilityanalysis

JulianBolleter a,BillGrace a,RobertFreestone b andPaulaHooper a

aAustralianUrbanDesignResearchCentre,UniversityofWesternAustralia,Perth,WA,USA; bBuiltEnvironment, UniversityofNewSouthWales,Sydney,Australia

ABSTRACT

Australia’spopulationisprojectedtotripleby2101,yetthenationlacks coordinatedplanningbasedonsystematicregionalanalysis.Thispaper documentsanovelnational-scalesuitabilityanalysisofAustraliawhich identifiesthemostappropriateregionsforfutureurbandevelopment. Thecentralresearchquestionis ‘WhereshouldAustralianfederaland stategovernmentsencourageurbandevelopmenttomaximiseclimatic liveability,protectnaturalandculturalheritage,capitaliseonprevious infrastructureinvestments,andmaximiseeconomicproductivity?’ The resultsindicatethatthesouth-eastandsouth-westofthecountry,and Tasmania,arepreferred.Thefederalgovernmentisyettopreparea nationalsettlementstrategyandcontemplateslargescaleurban developmentinareastowhichitisnotsuited.Regionalplanning decisionsnotbasedoncomprehensive,evidence-basedanalysisare likelytoincursignificantsocial,economicandenvironmentalcosts.

Introduction

KEYWORDS

Australiancities;urban development;population growth;suitabilityanalysis; multi-criteriaevaluation

By2050demographerspredicttheworld’surbanpopulationwillhavenearlydoubled,making urbanizationoneofthetwenty-firstcentury’smosttransformativetrends(UnitedNationsGeneral Assembly 2016).Today,urbanareasaroundtheworldareexpandingonaveragetwiceasfastthan theirnationalpopulations.Ifcurrenttrendsinpopulationdensitycontinuethenby2030theurban landcoverwillincreaseby1.2millionsquarekilometres,nearlytriplingtheglobalurbanlandarea circa2000(Seto,Guneralp,andHutyra 2012).

Australiaisamicrocosmofthisglobalsituation.Thehigh ‘SeriesA’ populationprojectionsof theAustralianBureauofStatistics(ABS)assessthenationalpopulationincreasingfromthepresent 24.7millionto49.2millionin2066and70.1millionby2101(AustralianBureauofStatistics 2017). TheABSusesthe ‘cohort-componentmethod’ fordevelopingpopulationprojections.Inthis method,assumptionsaboutfuturefertility,mortality,overseasandinternalmigrationlevelsare appliedtoabasepopulationtoproduceaprojected figure(AustralianBureauofStatistics 2017). Theassumptionsapplieddonotallowfornon-demographicfactors(suchasclimatechangeor wars)whichmeansAustralia’spopulationmayreachthehigher figurewellbefore2101(Australian BureauofStatistics 2017).

Australiawillneedappropriateplanningtodealwithsubstantialpopulationgrowthinthiscentury.Nonetheless,ananalysisofthevariouscurrentplansforAustralia’sstateandterritorycapital citieswheretwo-thirdsofthepopulationalreadylives,revealsthattheirplanningstrategiesdonot adequatelydealwithlongtermpopulationgrowth.Assuch,acollectiveshortfallofalmost9million

CONTACT JulianBolleter Julian.bolleter@uwa.edu.au AustralianUrbanDesignResearchCentre,UniversityofWestern

peopleexistsbetweencurrentoverarchingcityplanning1 andtheABSSeriesAprojectionsforthe capitalcitiesin2066(AustralianBureauofStatistics 2017).Moreover,onlyWesternAustralia,New SouthWalesandtheAustralianCapitalTerritoryadditionallyhavestate-orterritory-wideplanningpolicies(InfrastructureNewSouthWales 2018;WesternAustralianPlanningCommission 2012).

PlanningforpopulationgrowthinAustraliaistypicallyfocussedoneithermetropolitaninfill developmentorgreenfielddevelopment.Thelatter,oftenpejorativelyknownassprawl,isregarded asanecessaryevilaccommodatingpopularpreferences.Planningpoliciestoachieveurbaninfill developmentareintendedtosafeguardbothruralandbiodiverselandinperi-urbanzonesand minimizeinfrastructurecosts,commutingtimes,andtheconcentrationofeconomicandsocialvulnerabilitiesonAustraliancities’ fringes(Bolleter 2015;KellyandDonegan 2015).Acrossthenation, StateGovernmentplanningpoliciesforthestatecapitalcities,onaverage,stipulatethat60%ofall newresidentialdevelopmentshouldbeinfilldevelopment(and40%greenfielddevelopment),yet thesecitiestypicallydonotmeettheirinfilltargets(BolleterandWeller 2013;Newton 2010;Randolph 2007).Whathasoftenbeenmissingintheselargelybinarypolicydebatesisthediscussionof athirdway:populationdecentralizationtoregionalcentres.Thissituationis,inpart,duetoneoliberalism,whichhasbeentheprevailingpoliticalorthodoxyfromthe1980s.Inthiscanongovernment-sponsoredpopulationdecentralizationisregardedasineffectiveagainstcentralizing economicforcesanda ‘wasteofexpenditure’ (Painter 1979,344)

GloballywewitnessastrongrecentpushforintegratingtheUnitedNations2030Agendaand theSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)intopolicyframeworksasacatalystforarevivalin nationalurbandevelopmentplanning.InAustralia,FederalGovernmentinterestinurbansystem planninghasbeenonthewanesincethe1970s(Oakley 2004).Intheearly2000swhennational interestinurbanpoliciesresurfaced,thefocuswas firmlyoncommunityprosperityandliveability largelydivorcedfromanynationalpopulationandsettlementframework(AustralianGovernment 2011)andparadoxicallyatatimewhenanationaldebateonAustralia’sfuture ‘bigness’ emerged (AustralianGovernment 2010).However,giventhecontinuinggrowthpressures,Australiais expectedtofaceaftertheCOVID-19interregnum,thereisincreasingrecognitionofthebenefits fromanationalplanforcitiesandregionswhichidentifiesareaswiththehighestcapacityfor urbandevelopmentandpossiblypopulationdecentralization.Subsequentfederal,stateandlocal governmentinvestmentsinenablinginfrastructure,landdevelopmentandemploymentgeneration couldincentivisepopulationtomigrateandrelocatetotheseareas.

ThePlanningInstituteofAustraliaispromotingtheneedforsuchaNationalSettlementStrategy(PlanningInstituteofAustralia 2018),whichcoulddelineatefutureurbangrowthareasand establishspatiallimitsforexistingcities.Thescaleofplanningenvisagedwouldbedependentona renewedfederalgovernmentinvolvementinurbanplanning,reminiscentoftheDepartmentof UrbanandRegionalDevelopmenterafrom1972–1975(Oakley 2004).Theproblemwithperpetuatingaspatiallyfragmented,statebystateapproachisthatstate,territoryandlocalgovernments aretryingtoplanforafuturewherethey ‘allhavedifferentviewsaboutourcommonfuture’ resultingina ‘collective coverageofplanslookinglikeapatchworkquilt’ (PlanningInstituteof Australia 2018,6).

Inthiscenturyofirreversibleclimatechange,andsubstantialpopulationgrowththrough migration,afederallycoordinatedplanwouldbeabletodirectpopulationgrowthawayfromcertainregionswhichmaystruggletoaccommodatepopulationinfluxes.AsLaquian(2005,416) explains, ‘anationalurbanstrategycaneffectivelyreducecity-regionpopulations’ growthrate.It canmakeotherurbannodesmoreattractivetoinvestorsbyprovidinginfrastructure,energy,housing,andotherinputs.’ Onereasonforredirectingpopulationawayfromparticularregionscouldbe theeffectsofclimatechange.Indeed,climatechangewilllikelythreatentheliveability(andperhaps viability)ofnorthernAustralia,renderingitunsuitableformassurbanization(Bolleter 2019). Anotherreasoncouldbesubstantialinfrastructureorhousingdeficitsthatwouldhamperaccommodationofsubstantialpopulationgrowth.Moreover,aNationalSettlementStrategycouldserve

asthebasisfor ‘morelogical,coordinatedinvestmentdecisionsatthenationallevel’ (Beatley 2015, 408).Oneexampleofthiscouldbecoordinationofhigh-speedraillinesconnectingstateorterritorycapitals(Beatley 2015).

AnenforceableNationalSettlementStrategyinAustraliamayproveproblematicforpolitical reasons(e.g.notablybecauseofstategovernments’ powervisavistheCommonwealthunder theAustralianconstitutionalfederation).Nevertheless,policymakersandplannersshould ensurecoordinatedhigh-levelstrategies(atfederal,stateandregionalscales)areinplace basedonacomprehensivesuitabilityanalysisofprevailingclimatic,environmental,economic andinfrastructuralfactors.Suchanalysesarecurrentlymissing – andincriticalplacessuchas thelatestWhitePaperfordevelopingnorthernAustralia(AustralianGovernment 2015).This lacunaiscriticalbecauseurbanizationwithoutappropriateresearch-drivenanalysiscanleadto urbandevelopmentoutcomesthatincurongoingenvironmental,societaloreconomiccosts. Poorlyconceivedplanningcanitselffailtomanifestinpositiveurbanoutcomesyetstill incursignificanteconomiccosts.

Againstthisbackdrop,thispapersetsouttounderstandwhichareasaremostappropriatefor populationgrowthandrelatedurbandevelopmentthroughahigh-levelsuitabilityanalysis.The paperisstructuredinthefollowingway.Firstly,wepresentourconceptualframeworkforthe study.Secondly,weprovidebackgroundonthedevelopmentofsuitabilityanalysismethodsand reviewhowtheyhavebeenappliedintheAustraliancontext.Thirdly,inthemethodssection, wesetouttheclimatic,naturalandculturalheritage,infrastructuralandeconomicfactorsincorporatedintothesuitabilityanalysisexercise.Fourthly,intheresultssection,wedisplaysuitabilitymaps forfoursub-models,andacombined,overallsuitabilitymap.Fifthly,inthediscussionsection,we discusswhatcorrelationexistsbetweenfederalgovernmenturbanandregionalplanningpolicies withoursuitabilityanalysis.Finally,weconcludewithsomereflectionsforfurtherresearchand theimplicationsofthepaper’ s findings.

Conceptualframework

Figure1 displaystheconceptualframeworkforthepaper.PopulationgrowthinAustraliaderives frombothimmigrationandnaturalpopulationincrease.Stateandfederalgovernmentleadurban

planningforaccommodatingpopulationgrowthonaspectrumdefinedbyrelativedegreesofsystematicanalysis.Someplanningoccursintheabsenceofcomprehensiveandsystematicspatial analysisbecausemany ‘websofrelationsaredrawnintotheplanningprocess’ and ‘ encompass thenetworksoflandowners,developers, financiers,end-users,variousthirdparties,differentsectorsofcentralandlocalgovernment,localpolitics,nationalpolitics,pressuregroupsofallkinds’ (GrahamandHealey 1999,633).Inthiscomplexweb,inwhichplannersoftenhavelimitedagency, thedecision-makingprocesscanbedescribedas ‘disjointedincrementalism’ or ‘muddlingthrough’ (Hall 2014,397).Thissituation can leadtourbandevelopmentoutcomesthatincurongoing environmental,societaloreconomiccostsduetoinadequatespatialanalysis.Theresultofpoor spatialplanningforpopulationincreasecanbediminishedliveabilityandsupportforpopulation growth(andinparticularimmigration)becausegrowthisnotbeing ‘well-managed’ (Murray 2017).Giventhissituation,theapproachisfocussedonsystematicallyassessingtheAustralian environmenttounderstandwhereexpandedandfuturesettlementpatternsshouldbelocated, giventheinformationthatiscurrentlyavailable.

Background

Thedevelopmentofsuitabilityanalysis

Theoriginsofsuitabilityanalysislieinhand-draftedcompositeoverlaystodelineatecapacityfor variouslandusespioneeredbyearlylandscapearchitects(Collins,Steiner,andRushman 2001). AseminalapplicationofthistechniquecameinaNewYorkHousingandRegionalPlanningCommissionreportin1926suffusedwiththeprogressivismofRegionalPlanningAssociationofAmericamemberslikeClarenceSteinandHenryWright(Sussman 1976).FellowtravellerLewis MumfordhelpedarticulateaphilosophicalbasisinecologicalregionalismthatchannelledtheholisticassessmentphilosophyofPatrickGeddesandanticipatedthesievingmethodologyofIan McHarg.McHargdevelopedhisecologicalplanningmethodasamanualoverlayprocesssuperimposingfactorsthateitherconstrainormakeopportuneurbandevelopment.AsMcHargimplored ‘Letusaskthelandwherearethebestsites’ (McHarg 1992,197).

McHarg’sapproachledtheregionalplanningof ‘TheValleys’ urbandevelopmentonthe edgeofBaltimoreintheUSA,andtheprojectexemplifieshismethod.TheplanfortheValleysemployed ‘physiographicdeterminism’ torevealtheoptimumpatternofdevelopment (McHarg 1992).Heidentifiedthattherankedsuitabilityoflandscapesforurbandevelopment, indecreasingorder,was: flatland,forestandwoodlands,steepslopes,aquifers,aquifer rechargeareas, floodplains,marshes,andsurfacewater(McHarg 1992).McHarg’smethod remainscapableofdeterminingwhereurbandevelopment,onalargescale,shouldnot occurgivenlandscapeconditions;however,itisnotsousefulintermsoftellingplanners wheredevelopmentshouldoccur(Weller 2009).CurrentMulti-FactorsEvaluationapproaches thatintegratewithGeographicInformationSystemsrespondtothisweakness.Multi-Factors Evaluationisaprocessthatcombinesandtransformsevaluationdata(input)intoaresultant decision(output)(Zhangetal. 2013).

Over thelastfortyyearsorso,suitabilityanalyseshaveincreasinglybecomeintegralcomponents ofurban,regionalandenvironmentalplanningactivities(Zhangetal. 2013)andsuitabilityanalysis isoneofthe ‘mostuseful’ applicationsofGeographicInformationSystemsforurbanandregional planning(Pettitetal. 2015,94).Thereisalsoaplethoraofacademicliteratureconcerningsuitability analysesrelatingtodifferentgeographiccontextsincludingChina(Liuetal. 2014;Wangetal. 2017; Zhangetal. 2013),India(KumarandShaikh 2013),Iran(Lotfi,Habibi,andKoohsari 2009),and Spain(Criadoetal. 2017).

Australiananalyses

SpatialmappingofgrowthpotentialinAustraliahassimilarlydeeproots.ThediagramsofgeographerGriffithTaylorinthe1920sthatdepictedmuchofthecontinentas ‘almostuseless’ witha

populationcarryingcapacityaslimitedas20millionprovedhighlycontroversialinadecadewhen thedominantpoliticalmoodwasboosterism(StrangeandBashford 2008).Harnessingsophisticatedmultivariatetechniques,alatergenerationofresearchershasconductedseveralmetropolitan anddistrictscalesuitabilityanalyses(Chen 2016;Pettitetal. 2015).Rudimentarynationalscale analysishasbeenconductedhoweverthisomittedthesystematicweightingofdifferentsuitability factors(BolleterandWeller 2013).Toourknowledge,the firstrigorousnationalscaleanalysiswas carriedoutbyaCommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisation(CSIRO)research teamintheearly1980s(Armanetal. 1981)andreportedmorewidelybyteammemberDougCocks adecadelater(1992).ThiswasanearlyapplicationofGISatanationalscaleexploringthepotentialitiesofthenewAustralianResourcesInformationSystem,acomputerizedspatialsystemcapable ofmappingbio-physicalandsocio-economicdataonarangeofdigitaldatabases(Walkerand Cocks 1984).

TheCSIROdemonstrationcombinedthreesetsofexclusion(e.g.waterscarcity),preference(e.g. economichotspotsandcoastalareas)andavoidancecriteria(e.g.environmentalfragility,natural hazards,populationconcentrationandhighinfrastructurecosts)intoanoveralldesignationof ‘promisingareas’ (Figure2).IncontrasttoMcHarg,thisexercisegavespecialweighttomapping ofpolicy-relatedfactors.Theresultwastopredominantlyidentifyprospectivelocationsin ‘the coastalrimoftheEcumene’ (Cocks 1992).ThemostfavouredwereonthecentralQueensland coastsouthofMackay,GeraldtoninWesternAustralia,andlocalitiesclosetoMelbourneand Sydney.

WhiletheCSIROoverlaymappinganalysis – undertakenfourdecadesago – wasinnovativeata nationalscale,itcannotbeconsideredafullsuitabilityanalysisbecausetherewasnoweightingof thefactorsorformalsub-modelsthatconstitutetheanalysis;calculationswhicharemadepossible throughcontemporarydigitalprocessing.Thesemethodologicalissuesaside,theanalysisalsoneeds updatingtoincludeadditionalsignificantconsiderations(suchasheatstressandnativetitle).

Inresponsetotheseneeds,wesetouttoconductacontemporarynational-scalesuitabilityanalysis – basedonclimatic,naturalandculturalheritage,infrastructuralandeconomicfactors – to locatepotentialregionswherepolicymakersshouldguidefutureurbandevelopment.Thisanalysis

Figure2. CommonwealthScientificandIndustrialResearchOrganisationdeterminationofattractivenessformajorfutureurbanization,1981.MapfromCocks(1992).Usewithcare.Sydney:NewSouthWalesUniversityPress.Reproducedwithpermission fromNewSouthWalesUniversityPress.

isimportantbecauseexistingandfuturepopulationswilllivewiththeregionalplanningdecisions wemakenowastwenty-first-centurypopulation,biodiversityandclimatechallengesunfold(Gleeson 2015).

Toengagewiththiscomplexsetofissues,theresearchquestionthatstructuredourenquirywas: WhereshouldAustralianfederalandstategovernmentsencourageurbandevelopmenttomaximiseclimatic liveability,protectnaturalandculturalheritage,capitaliseonpreviousinfrastructureinvestments,andmaximiseeconomicproductivity?

Methods

Toprovideananswertoourresearchquestion,weconductedasuitabilityanalysisoftheAustralian continentandTasmaniausingtheArcMap10.5 ‘overlayanalysis’ tool(Esri 2020b).Userstypically applythistoolinoptimalsiteselectionasatechniqueforapplyingastandardscaleofvaluesto diverseanddissimilarinputstocreatean ‘integratedanalysis’ (Esri 2020b).Giventhecomplexity ofthissuitabilityanalysis,forclaritywebrokeitdownintofoursub-models:(1)climate,(2)natural andculturalheritage,(3)infrastructureand(4)economics.Subsequently,weemployedM-Macbeth softwaretoweightboththesub-modelsandthefactors(BanaeCosta,DeCorte,andVansnick 2020).WethenutilizedArcMap10.5toreclassifythefactormapsintoastandardpreference scaleonetoeight,withascoreofonedenotingverylowsuitability,fourmediumsuitabilityand eightveryhighsuitability.Thepreferencevalueswereonarelativescale,meaningapreference ofeightistwiceaspreferredasapreferenceoffour(Esri 2020a).Finally,weappliedtheweighted multipliersalgorithmtoallgridcellstocreatesuitabilityanalysismapsforeachsub-model,andan overallsuitabilityanalysismapincorporatingeachsub-model.Weprovidefurthertechnicaldetails belowindescribingthestagesintheanalysis.

Themethodologicalinnovationthatouranalysisembodiesisapplicationatacontinentalscale. Mostsuitabilityanalyseshavebeenconductedatthescaleofmunicipalities(Musselman 2003), cities(Zhangetal. 2013)orregions(Myagmartseren,Buyandelger,andBrandt 2017).Theabsence ofmodernnationalscalesuitabilityanalysis,inAustraliaandelsewhere,isnoteworthywhenthe needforurbanandregionalplanningatthisoverarchingscaleisconsistentlyidentified(Beatley 2015;Laquian 2005;PlanningInstituteofAustralia 2018).

Sub-modelsandfactors

Belowwedescribeandexplainthefactorsappliedineachofthefoursub-models.Foreachsubmodel,weidentifyasetoffactorsthatpresenteitherconstraintsoropportunitiesforurbandevelopment.Allfactorsfortheevaluationofland-usesuitabilityfallwithinthesetwocategories.However,mostphysicalandsocioeconomicfactorshavebothconstrainingandpermissivefeaturesfora givenland-use,forexample ‘slope,’ withahighgradientislocationrestrictive,andalowgradient locationpermissive,forurbanization(Liuetal. 2014).

Climate

Suitabilityanalysestypicallyrefertoclimaticfactorssuchastemperature,humidity,rainfall (Wangetal. 2017)andinsomecases,prevailingwinds(Lotfi,Habibi,andKoohsari 2009). Undertheclimatesub-model,weidentifythreefactorsthatconstrainfutureurbandevelopmentinAustralia(Figure3).The firstoftheconstrainingfactorsis heatstress whichderives fromheatandhumidity(Davidson 2007).Wehaveincludedthisbecausehighenvironmental temperaturescanbedangeroustohumans.Extremedry-bulbtemperatureincreasestheriskof heatillnessandcanexacerbatepre-existingillnessessuchasheartandkidneyconditions(Bi etal. 2011).Intherangeof32°to40°Chumanscanexperienceheatcrampsandexhaustion whilebetween40°and54°C,heatexhaustionismorelikely(Luo 2017).However,theeffectsof

Figure3. Geospatiallayersincludedintheclimaticsub-model.Mapsbytheauthors.

themostlethalheatwavesareduetoelevatedtemperaturesandtheeffectsofhumidity.Extremelyhighheatcombinedwithhighhumiditydiminishesthehumanbody’sabilitytoregulate itstemperaturebysweating.Hence,hotandhumidconditionscanbemoredangerousthan equivalentlyhotbutdryconditions(Steadman 1979).Forthisreason,wehaveemployed theheatstressdatasetandnotthedry-bulbtemperatureinisolation.

Thesecondoftheconstrainingfactorsis annualrainfall (BureauofMeteorology 2020).Australia’sdriestcapitalcityAdelaidecurrentlyreceivesameanannualrainfallofjustover500mm (BureauofMeteorology 2019)andareasforfutureurbandevelopmentcouldstruggleiftheyreceive lessthanthis figure.Manythrivingcitiesworldwideexperiencelessrainfallthanthis – Dubaiisone suchexample – butinAustralia,citieshavecoalescedinareasthatreceivereasonablerainfall,and weexpectthistrendwillcontinueinthefuture.Moreover,whiledesalinationtechnologyisavailable,itislessfeasibleawayfromthecoast,reasonablyexpensiveandhasenvironmentalimplicationsinenergyusageandhypersalinereceivingwaters(Waugh 2011).

Finally,wehaveincludedareasthatcurrentlyexperience cyclonerisk (BureauofMeteorology 2020).MostclimatechangemodelsfornorthernAustraliaprojectthattherewillbeapossible decreaseinthetotalnumberofcyclonesbutanincreaseintheproportionoftropicalcyclones inthemoreintensecategories(Hugo 2012).Indeed,thenumberofcategory3–5cyclonesareforecasttoincrease,andby2070therecouldbeanaccompanying140%increaseintheintensityofthe mostseverestorms(DCCEEinHugo 2012).Ourmappingassumesmoreintensecycloneswill occurincurrenthighincidencelocations.Theseseverecyclonesshouldconstrainlarge-scale urbandevelopmentintheaffectedregions.

Naturalandculturalheritage

Althoughmanynaturalfactorsinfluencehumansettlements,themostfundamentalareterrain,climate,hydrologicalconditions,andlandcover,which ‘playleadingroles’ innaturalsuitabilityevaluation(Wangetal. 2017,2).Indeed,suitabilityanalysestypicallyincorporatetopographicfactors suchaselevationandslope(Criadoetal. 2017;KumarandShaikh 2013;Lotfi,Habibi,andKoohsari 2009;Myagmartseren,Buyandelger,andBrandt 2017;Parketal. 2011).Hydrologicalfactorsgenerallyincludesurfacewater,e.g.rivers,lakesandreservoirs,adjacent flood-proneland,groundwaterrechargeandwatercatchmentareas(Criadoetal. 2017;Liuetal. 2014;Lotfi,Habibi,and Koohsari 2009;McHarg 1992;Myagmartseren,Buyandelger,andBrandt 2017).Naturalfactors alsoincludeareasofecologicalvalue,vegetationcover,soiltype,geotechnicalriskareas,andagriculturalandculturalheritagevalue(Criadoetal. 2017;Liuetal. 2014;Myagmartseren,Buyandelger,andBrandt 2017).SeaLevelRiseisalsoafactorformanycoastalregions,butasonlyarelatively narrowcoastalzonewillbeaffectedinthenext100years,wehavenotincludedit,forourscaleof analysis.Fromthisrangeofpossibilities,forournaturalandculturalheritagesub-model,wehave selectedfourrepresentativenaturalandculturalheritagefactorsthatconstrainurbandevelopment: significantnativevegetation,hydrologicalfeatures,slope,conservationreserves (GeoscienceAustralia 2018) and nativetitledeterminations2 (NationalNativeTitleTribunal 2019)(Figure4).

DetailedgeospatialmappingofAustralia’sdevastatingrecentbushfireswasnotyetavailable. Nonetheless,significantnativevegetationlayerisasatisfactorilyproxyforsuchbushfireprone areas.Thehydrologicalfeaturesincludelakes,foreshore flats, flatsandwatercourseareas.Formappingboththesefactors,wehaveutilizedGeoscienceAustralia1:250,000datasets(2018).Wehave identifiedareaswithasignificantslopeasconstrained,particularlywhentheyhaveagradientofsix percentorover.WehavecalculatedtheslopeusingaGeoscienceAustraliaDigitalElevationModel (2018).

Infrastructure

Suitabilityanalysestypicallyincorporateinfrastructure-relatedfactorssuchasdistancetoraillines, majorroadnetworks,existingurbancentres,waterandenergynetworksandeducationalandmedicalfacilities(Criadoetal. 2017;KumarandShaikh 2013;Lotfi,Habibi,andKoohsari 2009;Myagmartseren,Buyandelger,andBrandt 2017;Wangetal. 2017).Undertheinfrastructuresub-model, wehaveidentifiedsevenmajorinfrastructuresthatpresentopportunitiesforurbandevelopment (Figure5).Thesearetheproximityto majorports,airports,regionalrailwaylines,waterpipelines,majorpowerlines,telecommunications (capturedbytheNationalBroadbandNetwork, NBN)and principalroads (GeoscienceAustralia 2018).Urbandevelopmentcan,andwillto

Figure4. Geospatiallayersincludedinthenaturalandculturalheritagesub-model.Mapsbytheauthors.

Continued

somedegree,occurintheabsenceofexistinginfrastructurecapacity.Nonetheless,itwillbeacomparativelyexpensiveexercise,particularlygivenconstrainedgovernmentbudgets,andassuch,this willcurtaillarge-scaleurbandevelopmentopportunitiesinmanylocations,asrecognizedinthe CSIROstudy(Armanetal. 1981).Moreover,werecognizethatmappingthepresenceofinfrastructurecanoverstatetheactualcapacityofthatinfrastructuretoservicepopulationgrowth.

Economics

Suitabilityanalysestypicallyincorporateeconomic-relatedfactorssuchaspercapitaGDP,per capitaincomeoflocal finance,andpercapitainvestmentin fixedassets(Wangetal. 2017). Undertheeconomicssub-model,wehavemapped averageweeklyhouseholdincomes (AUD$) (AustralianBureauofStatistics 2016)and proximitytothecapitalcities,whichareAustralia’ s majorpopulationandemploymentnodes(Figure6).Inthisinstance,householdincomesserve asaproxyforthepresenceofwell-enumeratedemploymentopportunities.Wehaveincludedcities because80percentofAustralia’seconomicactivityoccursinAustralia’slargecities.AsKellyand Donegan(2015,23)explain, ‘theyarethebackboneofoureconomy’ andtheirCentralBusinessDistrictsare ‘criticallyimportanttothenation’sprosperity.’3

Figure4

Figure5. Geospatiallayersintheinfrastructuresub-model.Mapsbytheauthors.

Continued

Figure5

Figure6. Geospatiallayersshowingthefactorsincludedintheeconomicssub-model.Mapsbytheauthors.

Weightingthesuitabilityfactors

Thereisaconsensusintheliteraturethatweightingofthesuitabilityfactorspresentsdifficultiesasit ‘introducessubjectivityintothedecision-makingprocesssincetheweightis[often]assignedarbitrarilytoeachsetoffactors’ (Chen 2016,50).Thissituationcanleadtoconsiderablevariationsin

Table1. Theseven-pointintensityofrelativeimportancescale. IntensityofimportanceDefinition

1Equalimportance

2Veryweakimportance

3Weakimportance

4Moderateimportance

5Strongimportance

6Verystrongimportance

7Extremeimportance

TablebyBanaeCosta,DeCorte,andVansnick(2020).

Table2. Sub-models,geospatiallayers,classificationsandpreferencescores.

GeospatiallayerClassification

Climatesub-model

HeatstressVeryhotveryhumid10.58Davidson(2007)

Veryhotnot necessarilyhumid 2

Hotveryhumid3

Hotnotnecessarily humid 4

Warmveryhumid5

Warmnotnecessarily humid 6

Mildveryhumid7

Mildhumid8

Mildnothumid8

Annualaveragerainfall(mm)0–24810.33Bureauof Meteorology (2020) 248–5032 503–8153 815–11384 1138–14585 1458–18176 1817–22987 2298–42278

Meteorology (2020)

Naturalandculturalheritage sub-model

NativevegetationMangrove10.10GeoscienceAustralia (2018) Forest/shrub1 Rainforest1 Nodata8

Hydrology(lakes,foreshore flats, flats, watercourse areas)

Lakes10.42GeoscienceAustralia (2018) Watercourseareas1 Nodata8

Slope(%)14.7–26.110.17GeoscienceAustralia (2018)

0.25GeoscienceAustralia (2018) Reserve 3 ForestryReserve 2 WaterSupplyReserve2 IndigenousReserve8 NoData NativetitledeterminationsNativetitleexistsinall ofthereserve 1

0.04NationalNativeTitle Tribunal(2019)

0.11GeoscienceAustralia (2018)

Table2. Continued.

GeospatiallayerClassification

Preference score Sub-model weighting Factor weightingDataset

<508

Airports(km)>10010.15GeoscienceAustralia (2018) 50–1004.

<508

Regionalrail(km)>10010.29GeoscienceAustralia (2018) 50–1004

<508

Waterpipelines(km)>10010.02GeoscienceAustralia (2018) 50–1002

<508

Majorpowerlines(km)>10010.05GeoscienceAustralia (2018) 50–1002

<508

NationalBroadbandNetwork>10010.08NBNco.(2020) 50–1002

<508

Principalroads>10010.29GeoscienceAustralia (2018) 50–1004

<508

Economicsub-model0.25

Capitalcities(km)>80010.83GeoscienceAustralia (2018)

600–8002

400–6004

200–4006

100–2008

Averagehouseholdweekly income($) 0–40810.17AustralianBureauof Statistics(2016) 408–9332 933–11453 1145–13224 1322–15395

resultsdependingonexpertopinion(Flitteretal. 2013).Acommonchallengeis ‘howtoestablish weightsforasetofactivitiesaccordingtoimportance’ (Al-Shalabietal. 2006,5).

Totacklethisproblem,wehaveemployedtheAnalyticHierarchyProcess,a ‘theoryofmeasurementthroughpairwisecomparisons’ toderivepriorityscales(Saaty 2008,83).Inconstructingaset ofpairwisecomparisonmatrices,weusedM-Macbethsoftware4 (BanaeCosta,DeCorte,and Vansnick 2020)tocompareallpossiblepairsofsuitabilityanalysiscriteriawithinasub-model (e.g.roadaccesstorailaccess,roadaccesstoairportaccess)andtoweighttherelativeimportance ofonecriterionoveranother(Saaty 2008). Table1 belowsetsoutthepairwisecomparisonmatrix. Oncethisprocesshasbeencarriedoutinthesub-models,wethencarriedoutthesameprocessof weightingthemodelsthemselves(e.g.climaticconditionsrelativetoinfrastructureprovision).

Table2 setsoutthesub-modelandfactorweightings(derivedfromthepairwisecomparison process),classificationsandassociatedpreferencescores.Thesub-modelweightingsreflectthe importanceofclimateandeconomicconsiderations.Fortheformer,the ‘pleasantness’ ofaclimate hasproventobeasignificantdriverofpopulationgrowth(DurantonandPuga 2013,804).This dynamicislikelytoincreaseasclimatechangecompoundsclimatecomfortissues(AustralianGovernment 2017).Theweightingsalsoreflecttheimportanceofeconomicopportunities.Forthelatter,failedattemptsatpopulationdecentralizationinAustraliaintheearlytomid-twentiethcentury clearlyshowthatwithoutconvincingeconomicdrivers,neworexpandedsettlementswillstruggle (Bolleter 2018).Naturalandculturalheritageconsiderationsrankthirdinimportancecapturing Australia’sbiodiversityparticularlythenorthernhalfofthecontinentwith ‘anextraordinarily vast,naturallandscapewitharichbiodiversityofinternationalsignificance ’ (Woinarskietal.

Figure7. Climaticsub-modelsuitabilityanalysisresults.

2007,85).Thepresenceofexistinginfrastructureranksfourth,whichremainsimportantregionally, despiterecentinnovationsindecentralizedneighbourhood-basedinfrastructure(Newman,Beatley, andBoyer 2009).

Figure8. Naturalandculturalheritagesub-modelsuitabilityanalysisresults.

Results

HerewepresenttheresultsofouranalysisofAustralianregionsmostsuitedtopopulationgrowth andconsequentialurbandevelopment.Thisanalysisisbasedonclimatic,naturalandculturalheritage,infrastructuralandeconomicfactors,andoverallsuitability.

Theclimatesub-modelmap(Figure7)revealsthatmostofthenorth,north-west,andinteriorof theAustraliancontinentisbroadlyunsuitableformassurbandevelopmentduetothecombined effectsofextremelyhighsummermaximumtemperaturesandhumidity,andpossiblydecreasing rainfall(BureauofMeteorology 2020)aswellashightoveryhighcyclonerisk(BureauofMeteorology 2020).Thesouth-east,south(particularlyTasmania)and,tosomedegree,thesouth-west appearmostappropriateforfutureurbandevelopmentonthiscriterion.

Thenaturalandculturalheritagesub-modelmap(Figure8)illustratesthatsomeofthecapital citiessuchasPerthareconstrainedbysubstantialnativevegetationandtopographicfeatureswitha significantslope,andinsomecasesconservationreserves(GeoscienceAustralia 2018).The flatness andgenerallackofsubstantialnativevegetationinsomeinteriorregionsmeantheseregistermoderatesuitabilityforurbandevelopment.Whilethisiscounterintuitive,readersshouldbeawarethat thearidityofthesedesertandsemi-desertareasisregisteredintheclimatesub-modelthroughthe averagerainfallcriterion.

Theinfrastructuresub-modelmap(Figure9)showsthatareasadjacentto,andoncorridors inter-connecting,existingmajorpopulationcentresarethebestservedbyexistinginfrastructure. AreasinthePilbaraalsoregisterhighlybecauseofinvestmentsininfrastructuremadebyprivate miningcompanies.Therelativelackofexistinginfrastructureinthenorthandinteriorofthecontinentreflectsasparsepopulationandthelackofotherinfrastructureprovisiondrivers.

Theeconomicssub-modelmap(Figure10)revealstheeconomicopportunities(KellyandDonegan 2015)presentedbythecapitalcities(federal,stateandterritory)whicharereflectedinaverage weeklyhouseholdincomes(AustralianBureauofStatistics 2016).Thissituationisacontinuationof Australia’sperceived ‘territorialimbalance.’ Thispatternhascompoundedsincethe1980sdueto Figure9.

population flowsfromtheinlandagriculturalregionstotheexpandingcoastalurbancentres,creatingwhatSalttermsthe ‘empty-islandsyndrome’ (InKullmann 2013,243).

Theoverallsuitabilityanalysismapwasgeneratedfromaweightedcombinationoftheclimate, naturalandculturalheritage,infrastructureandeconomicssub-modelmaps(Figure11).Thismap revealsthat fiveprincipalregionsaremostsuitablefortwenty-first-centuryAustralianurban

Figure10. Economicssub-modelsuitabilityanalysisresults.

Figure11. Overallsuitabilityanalysismap.

development.StartingfromthewestisaregionsurroundingPerthandextendingsouthwardstothe coastaltownofBusselton,northwardstothecoastaltownofCervantesandsouth-eastwardsto Wagin.ThesecondregionsurroundsAdelaideandextendstotheYorkePeninsulatothewest. AthirdregiontotheeastformsanalmostcontiguousareaextendingfromMelbourne,through Canberra,Wollongong,andSydneytoNewcastle.AfourthregionencompassesTasmania.A fifthregionsurroundsBrisbaneandextendstoBundaberginthenorthandCoffsHarbourin thesouth.

Thesebroadregionstypicallyoffersomeproximitytothecapitalcities – thepowerhousesofthe Australianeconomy – andreflectproximitytoemploymentbutalsoexistinginfrastructuresuchas majorportsandinternationalairports.Centresonrailnetworksandothermajorinfrastructures connectingMelbourneandSydneyarealsowell-placedforfutureurbandevelopment.Finally,a temperateclimateandreasonablerainfallcharacterizetheregionssuitedtourbangrowth.However muchoftheeasterncoastalregionsareconstrainedbyexistingremnantvegetationandinsome casessteepslopes.

Discussion

OursuitabilityanalysisresultsrevealthatcomparativelylittleofAustralia’slandmassissuitedtolargescalepopulationgrowthandaccompanyingurbandevelopment.Thisassessmentreflectstheenduringnotionthatthe ‘Australianlandscape,beyonditsfewfertileclefts,tendstomocktheveryideaof settlement’ (BolleterandWeller 2013,33).Theeconomicopportunitiesandinfrastructureprovision ofregionsadjacenttoexistingcitiesandmajortownspresentmajorurbanizationincentives.This situationsuggeststhatfutureurbanizationshouldbegraftedonto,orrestructuring,existingsettlementpatternsratherthanforgingmajornewcentresinareaswherenonecurrentlyexist.These findingshavesubstantialimplicationsforAustralianregionalplanningexercises.

OurresultshavesomecorrelationwiththeCSIRO’sanalysisconductedinthelatetwentiethcentury(Cocks 1992).Regardlessoftheenhancedtechnicalsophisticationofourstudy,bothidentify areasinthesouth-westandsouth-eastofthecontinent – andTasmania – assuitableforurban growth.TheearlierstudydiffersinidentifyingareasinnorthernQueensland,particularlythe Mackayregion,as ‘preferred’ forurbandevelopment.Thiscameatatimewhenasurgeofprosperitywasevidentonthebackofexpansionintheminingindustry(MackayRegionalCouncil 2020). Bycontrast,inouranalysis,thisregionscoredcomparativelymodestlyduetoclimaticandenvironment-relatedconstraints,combinedwiththedistancefromthestatecapitalofBrisbane,nearly 1,000kmtothesouthbyroad.

Readersshouldnotethelimitationsofourstudy.Likeallsuitabilityanalyses,oursrelieson weightingswhichconsiderablyaffectthespatialdistributionofsuitabilityscores.Weacceptthat thereremainsadegreeofsubjectivityaboutsuchweightingsandproceededwithamethodthat makesdecisionsaroundweightingtransparent.AsSaaty(2008,85)implores: ‘evenwhennumbers areobtainedfromastandardscale[suchasinourweightingmethodology],theirinterpretationis always,Irepeat,always,subjective.’

Secondly,ourstudyislimitedtoareasoutsideoftheexistingurbanfootprintsofthestate,territoryandfederalcapitalcities.Indeed,thepaperhasnotscopedthepotentialofinfilldevelopment toaccommodatepopulationgrowthwithinexistingurbanareas.Thislimitationisnotintendedto denigratetheimportanceofbrownfielddevelopment,andwerecognizethatpoorlyplanned greenfieldexpansionischaracterizedastypicallyunhealthy,socio-economicallystratified,unsustainableandunproductive(Bolleter 2017;KellyandDonegan 2015).Nonetheless,wedonote thattheprojectedtriplingofAustralia’spopulationfrom25to70millionby2100willbeunlikely tobeaccommodatedwithinexistingurbanareas.EvidenceofthisistheconsistentfailureofAustraliancitiestomeettheirtargetsforinfilldevelopment.Thirdly,whilethepaperidentifiesgreenfielddevelopmentareas,itdoesnotaddresstheappropriatepatterns,densitiesorissuesencountered (Bolleter 2017).

Inthepenultimatesectionofthepaper,wediscussthealignmentoftheresultsofoursuitability analysiswithtwocurrentfederalspatialpolicyinitiatives.

Federalgovernmentplanningfor ‘Australia’sFuturePopulation’

ThecurrentFederalGovernment’ssettlementpolicyisvaguebutappearstocoalescearoundinvestments(confirmedorspeculative)infastrailprojectsthataimtoimproveregionalconnectivityto thecapitalcities(particularlyMelbourneandSydney).Bywayofexample,theMorrisonGovernment(2018-)haspromised$2billionforafastrailupgradebetweenMelbourneandtheregional centreofGeelong80kmdistanttotravelatanaveragespeedof160km/h(AustralianGovernment 2019)(Figure12).OthercurrentbusinesscasesforfastrailincludeBrisbanetotheSunshineCoast, BrisbanetotheGoldCoast,MelbournetoGreaterShepparton,MelbournetoAlbury-Wodonga, MelbournetoTraralgon,SydneytoNewcastle,SydneytoWollongong,andSydneytoParkesvia BathurstandOrange.Coincidentallyorotherwise,mostofthesecentresareinareasourmapping hasshowntobemostconducivetofurtherurbandevelopment(withscoresof6andabove).These relativelyhighscoresareprimarilyduetoexistingregionalrailandroadlinks,proximitytomajor capitalcities,andarelativelybenignclimate.TheGovernment’ s ‘citydeals’ programmetoaccelerategrowththroughemploymentcreationhasbenefittedGeelongasaregionalcentrealongside TownsvilleinnorthernQueensland,LauncestoninTasmania,andDarwinintheNorthernTerritorybutalsomajormetropolitancentres:westernSydney,South-eastQueensland,Perth,Adelaide andHobart.

WhitepaperondevelopingNorthernAustralia

AttheFederalgovernmentlevel,planningtopopulate ‘thenorth’5 isencapsulatedintheWhite PaperondevelopingNorthernAustralia: Ournorth,ourfuture (AustralianGovernment 2015). Thispaperadoptsagenerallypro-developmentstance,inlinewiththenorth’sconceptualization

Figure12. TheMorrisonFederalGovernment’sdecentralizationprogrammecentresoverlainonoursuitabilityanalysis.

asaplaceofeconomicbountyandopportunity.WhiletheWhitePaperismuteonsettlementpatterns,somestatementssuggestthegovernment’ssupportformassurbandevelopment.Asthe reportimplores:

Developmentwillrequiremanymorepeoplelivinginthenorth … Weneedtolaythefoundationsforrapid populationgrowthandputthenorthonatrajectorytoreachapopulationoffourto fivemillionby2060. (AustralianGovernment 2015,4)

GivennorthernAustralia’scurrentpopulationof1.3millionthisaspirationrepresentsanalmost four-foldincrease(anadditional3.7millionpeople).Tofasttrackgrowth,thefederalgovernment hascommittedtoprovidinganew$5billionNorthernAustralianInfrastructureFacilityprogramme toprovideconcessionalloansfortheconstructionofsignificantinfrastructuressuchasports,roads, rail,pipelines,andelectricityandwatersupply(AustralianGovernment 2015).ADesignatedArea MigrationAgreementfortheNorthernTerritoryhasalsorecentlybeenintroduced.

Longterm,theresultofsucheffortscouldbetocompoundpopulationgrowthinaregiontowhich itisnotsuited,theupshotofwhichwillbeamassivedrainonresourcesandlimitedprogressonthe ground.Indeed,significanturbandevelopmentinthenorthwillneedtoovercomemanybarriersthat ourmappingreveals,suchasalackofexistinginfrastructure,aninhospitableclimateandarelative lackofeconomicopportunity(Figure13).Indeed,existingnortherncities,especiallythoseinthe north-westreceivedmodestsuitabilityscoresinouranalysis – Gladstone(6),Rockhampton(6) Mackay(6),Townsville(5),Cairns(5),Darwin(6),Broome(5),PortHedland(4)andKarratha (3).ReasonsforthesemodestscoresincludeNativeTitleDeterminationAreaswhichcovermore than30%oftheAustraliancontinentandasubstantial50%oftheNorthernTerritory(Pearson andGorman 2010).Particularlyincoastalareas,constraintsincludeclimatechangeimpacts –increasingtemperatures(AustralianGovernment 2017),andincreasingintensitycyclones(McMichaelinHugo 2012) – andecologicalconstraints(mangroveforeshoresandriverine flats).

Moreover,ifsignificanturbandevelopmentdoesoccuritcouldhaveadamagingeffectonremnantvegetationwhichunderpinsthemostsignificanttractofsavannawoodlandintheworld: ‘ an extraordinarilyvast,naturallandscapewitharichbiodiversityofinternationalsignificance ’ (Woinarskietal. 2007,85).Ourconclusionisthusambivalent.Ontheonehand,whileevidencing necessarylargerscalenationalthinkingonurbansettlement,theterritorybeingenthusiastically surveyedlackshighsuitabilityforurbandevelopment.

Figure13. NorthernAustralia’smajorcentresoverlainoveronsuitabilityanalysis.

Conclusion

Attheoutset,weposedthequestion:WhereshouldAustralianfederalandstategovernments encourageurbandevelopmenttomaximizeclimaticliveability,preserveandprotecttheenvironment,capitalizeonpreviousinfrastructureinvestmentsandmaximizeeconomicproductivity? Toanswerthis,wehavesystematicallyconductedasuitabilityanalysisoftheAustraliancontinent todiscern,againstasetofclimatic,naturalandculturalheritage,infrastructuralandeconomicfactors,whichregionsaremostfertile,feasibleandappropriateforurbandevelopmenttoaccommodatefuturepopulationgrowth.AdvancingbeyondtheCSIROmappinganalysiswhichlackeda weightingofsuitabilityfactorsorseparatelyidentifiedsub-models(Cocks 1992),thisisthe first timeacomprehensivesuitabilityanalysishasbeenconductedoftheAustraliancontinent.This analysisissignificantbecausecommentatorsbelieveanationalscaleoverviewconcerningsettlementpatternsiscritical,giventhechallengesofthiscentury(Beatley 2015;Laquian 2005;Planning InstituteofAustralia 2018) Itconcludesthatthesouth-west,eastandsouth-eastfringesofthecontinentandTasmaniaarefertileforurbandevelopment – ascurrentsettlementpatternsevidence. Thissituationhasnotchangedsignificantlysincethe1980s.

However,astheprevioussectionofthepaperindicated,stepshavebeentakentointegrate urbanplanningpolicyatanationalscale.In2018theHouseofRepresentativesStandingCommitteeonInfrastructure,TransportandCitiescompletedaninquiryintoleveragingplanning interventionforthenation’scities’ orderlylong-termdevelopment(AustralianGovernment 2018a).Themajorfocuswasonpathwaysandneedsforsecuringsustainableurbandevelopmentforbothexistingcitiesandregionalcentres.InMay2020theFederalGovernment acceptedinprincipletheCommittee’smajorrecommendationtodevelopanationalplanof settlement ‘providinganationalvisionforcitiesandregionsacrossthenext fiftyyears’ (AustralianGovernment 2020).Covid-19hasstymiedprogressonthisundertakingandamorevigoroustake-upoftheSDGgoalsintonationalpolicy(AustralianGovernment 2018b).The Governmentisnonethelessabletopointtoexistinginitiativessuchasdeliveringfastrailconnectionsbetweenregionalandcapitalcities(AustralianGovernment 2019)andasprinkleof ‘citydeals.’ Thissituationsuggeststhetypicallybinaryplanningdiscourseregardinginfillversusgreenfielddevelopmentcouldbeexpandedtocountenanceregionaldecentralizationto appropriatelocations.Theinterestoffederal(andalsostateandterritory)policymakersfor ambitiousnortherndevelopmentismoreequivocalwithconstraintsfacedthatclimatechange islikelytocompoundovertime.Theseareconcerningissueswhichhighlighttheneedfor urbanandpopulationplanningtobebasedoncomprehensivesuitabilityanalysis.

Whiletheanalysiswehavesetoutissubstantial,giventhebreadthofthegeographicscopeultimately,appropriatelyauthorized,federalandstategovernmentdepartmentsshouldundertake similarifmoredetailedstudies.Thispaperpresentsamodelofanalysisthatfederalorstategovernmentcouldtakeupaspartofanationalsettlementstrategyplanningprocess.Thisfutureanalysis couldincludeemployingvariousweightingsofthesub-modelstoproducedifferentsuitabilityscenariosthatresearcherscould,inturn,ground-truthwithsiteconditions,andtestwithexpertsina targetedDelphimethodorwiththebroaderAustraliancommunitythroughtraditionalsurvey methods.Futureresearchcouldfurtherstudytherelationshipsbetweenpopulationplanningata finerscaleandconformitywithour findings.

Notes

1.Thetimeframesofthismetropolitanplanningvariesfromstatetostate.Themostlongrangeplanningisfor Sydneyto2056(GreaterSydneyCommission 2018)andtheshortestforHobartto2029(CityofHobart 2019).

2.Inadditionto ‘determinations’ therearecurrently128outstandingnativetitle ‘claims.’ Manyifnotmostwill leadto ‘determinations’ soouranalysissomewhatunderestimatesaboriginalclaimstonativetitle.

3.Nonetheless,thecitiesthemselvesareexcludedfromoursuitabilityanalysis.

4.TheAnalyticHierarchyProcess(AHP)andMacbethapproachesareslightlydifferent.AHPuses9-pointfundamentalscales(ratioscale),whereasMACBETHusessevensemanticscales(ordinalscale).Inaddition,for calculatingweightandscale,MACBETHuseslinearprogramingmethod,whereasAHPusestheeigenvalue method(Rietkötter 2014).

5.NorthernAustraliaistheregionnorthoftheTropicofCapricorn(23.5’ Slatitude).

Disclosurestatement

Nopotentialconflictofinterestwasreportedbytheauthors.

Funding

ThisworkwassupportedbyAustralianResearchCouncil[grantnumberDP190101093].

ORCID

JulianBolleter http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1514-2007

BillGrace http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1305-7466

RobertFreestone http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4265-5059

PaulaHooper http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4459-2901

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