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Radical Scenarios for the Future of Sport Business
The global esports market is expected to reach US$5.7 billion by 2030.
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Hans Westerbeek and Adam Karg suggest fi ve scenarios for the future of sport
Against a background of globalisation, disruption and social change, the global sport industry is developing and commercialising at lightning speed pace. Not only sport’s governance, but also the social role of sport, how value is (re)created through the increasing importance of data and digital technology and how this affects the need for strong and innovative leadership in sport are issues that require careful consideration. One way of preparing for the future, is to systematically extrapolate megatrends, and interpret and assess their impact on the world that we will live in in years to come. In this article, we look ahead, imagining potential scenarios for the future of sport. These scenarios are based on what are the most likely global geopolitical, demographic, technological and economic trends to eventuate in the coming decades.
The future of sport business is all about a changing network of business settings that provide scope for old players to either co-exist or perish in new or emerging sport systems. In light of innovation and entrepreneurship, the sport business network or ecosystem of the future should evolve to maximise the value created. It is in that light that we aim to consider the future of sport business.
We have used five perspectives to elaborate on what we feel are possible futures for sport business. Our expansion is founded on future thinking principles, based on evidence where available, and (naively?) imagined in regard to what we believe remains sport’s massive potential to contribute to society.
In our recently published book International Sport Business: current issues, future perspectives, we have more elaborately outlined future global megatrends and scenarios, that the sport scenarios are based on.
Here, we move directly to the five scenarios that we have developed for the future of sport. Our scenarios for the future of sport business are: Sport for all, Winners are grinners, the Sporting arms race, a Fractured sport ecosystem and Back to basics. We will now briefly elaborate on each of these sport business scenarios.
Scenario 1: Sport for all In a world where democracy seems to have recovered from the assault on its defining principles during the 2010s and 2020s, it only seems logical that
“sport will both be a platform for community participation and elite excellence”
sport also has been rediscovered as a universal right to play and participate. Although the US might be leading the resurgence of open democracies, it probably will be the EU leading the advance of sport as a human right, and also as a tool for advancing health and building social capital. On the back of economic prosperity and hundreds of millions of lives improving to well above the poverty line, sport will both be a platform for community participation and elite excellence (mostly as a means to entertain).
It would be naïve however, not to think that autocratic regimes would not continue to see sport, also, as a means to justify ideology and express superiority. However, with sport being such an important (potential) expression of community, equality, health and social connection, governments and also socially engaged corporations will invest significantly in community sport. Sport will also be developed as an important communication platform for advancing health and maintaining an active lifestyle. Scenario 2: ‘Winners are Grinners’ The ugly reality of the winner takes all principle takes shape in this rather grim scenario for the future of sport business. With an international system that is on the brink of collapse in which the rulings of previously respected institutions such as the United Nations in New York or the International Court of Justice in The Hague in the Netherlands are ignored, we can see the most powerful sport organisations align with those countries (or companies!) that exude most power and influence.
This may well lead to a return to male-dominated dictator driven governance of the most powerful international sporting bodies, as they join forces with equally dictatorial leaders of countries or companies. Those sports that best express dominance and importance on the world stage, will also (continue to) thrive in the ‘winners are grinners’ scenario, as they will be appealing platforms for leaders to shine in the sport’s reflected glory.
In this scenario the rapid growth of esports may even further accelerate as the universal digital reach and massive popularity of esports among younger generations will be politically salivating and commercially incontestable. In this scenario, the top-end of sport may well become the playground of the rich and famous, unaffordable for the millions of people who can only just get by. Benefits of sport investment will be limited to (and protected by) a small selection of global sports and their corporate supporters and masters.
Scenario 3: Sporting arms race In a race to build the best high performance and talent identification systems, governments will focus on using sport as a major battlefield of diplomacy and international standing. Dominating on the field of play and in international medal rankings is deemed important to express economic, ideological, technological and strategic superiority. In many ways, this scenario partly is a continuation of how the world was in 2020, when placing on the Olympic medal rankings and positions on the FIFA world ranking list were still a badge of international honour, pride and prestige.
The battle between the USA and China, to top these rankings will have further pushed out smaller nations, and the concentration of international sporting successes will become greater, befalling to an ever-smaller set of nations.
However, with sport being such a visible and public arena of advancement, it will also lead to significant investment and innovations in sport technology and sport science. Forbidden performance enhancement will extend way beyond doping as we know it when advancements in biomedical engineering and DNA manipulation change the field of play dramatically. Ironically, these developments will also offer niche opportunities for smaller but smarter operators - both sporting bodies themselves or commercial organisations.
Financial investments will certainly extend to and multiply in esports, as its development of elite players mirrors all the characteristics of what it takes to be an elite sport athlete.
Scenario 4: Fractured sport ecosystem In a world in which several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength herald a return to the days of the Cold War, sport will also return to a more cocooned existence. In a fractured sport ecosystem, growth of nationally popular and/or indigenously relevant sports will be strong. This may be advocated by those who are in charge of the power blocs, and keen to appeal to strong nationalistic, regional, religious or ideological sentiments.
As the focus will be on the prosperity and sustainability of the power blocs, not the whole of the world, the economics of sport business will largely play out within closed ecosystems. Ironically this will also apply to esports as cyberspace - as it already is in China - will also be controlled and limited to those who are within the power enclaves.
Sport has the ability to “bring people together, to bond, and to relate to and appreciate each other.”
Of course, this also means that information flows are restricted, and that what people can or cannot read, say or play, will be heavily biased.
International sport business trade will decline, with only global sports being able to maintain a level of international commerce and governance across the power blocs. In a way, some parts of the sporting arms race scenario may apply here, not to countries, but to blocks of countries.
Scenario 5: Back to basics In many ways the Back to basics scenario mirrors the Sport for all scenario, but from a much darker place. Where in the Sport for all scenario it seems that humans have come to their senses, and rediscovered their purpose and origins, the Back to basics scenario is founded on disaster, and the realisation that we may have only one more chance to make things right.
In Back to basics we return to the foundations of sport, and the foundations of sport business, realising why it was that we played sport in the first place. A nostalgic return to what were good old times, but in a way that reflect the modern possibilities.
As the world is forced to come together under the leadership of the EU and China, with the USA and India and many multilateral institutions also taking on leadership, the potential of sport to assist with massive global challenges is recognised. In this scenario universal access to sporting opportunities is also facilitated, but now more to bring communities together during and after times of devastation and disaster.
Never before has sport delivered on its latent ability to generate and grow social capital, to bring people together, to bond, and to relate to and appreciate each other. In a way, back to the basics of sport mirrors the need for humans to return to their small community origins, and find ways to co-exist in and create low carbon, high yield, sustainable congregations.
Technology will play a substantial role in creating such communities, and digitally facilitated sport in that regard, will provide sustainable, low impact alternatives - esports will thrive. Artificial intelligence will assist in developing sport experiences that seem real, but are experienced in virtual environments, without stressing the natural world, and without being stressed by the impact of dangerous environmental conditions.
While we have presented five possible sport business scenarios towards 2040, within these scenarios it is important to identify what are the opportunities that each of these scenarios contain for sport business leaders.
In International Sport Business: current issues, future perspectives such opportunities are comprehensively considered. Suffice to say that irrespective of some of the doom and gloom predicted for the world into the future, opportunities will always be there, especially in an industry that continues to deliver billions of people a relief from the challenges of our times. Hans Westerbeek is Professor of International Sport Business and Director of PASI (Physical Activity & Sport Insights) at Victoria University. Adam Karg is Associate Professor and Director of the Sport Innovation Research Group at Swinburne University. International Sport Business: Current Issues, Future Directions (ISBN 9780367312824) is published by Routledge.
