Industry Insight with John Yoswick
—John Yoswick is a freelance writer based in Portland, Oregon who has been writing about the automotive industry since 1988. He is the editor of the weekly CRASH Network (for a free 4-week trial subscription, visit www.CrashNetwork.com). Contact him by email at jyoswick@SpiritOne.com.
Fully Automated AI Collision Repair Estimating ‘Not There Yet’
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A panel discussion at the Collision procedures for the specific vehicle. Industry Conference (CIC) in Las “So not everything is AI. We comVegas in November included repre- bine it with the OEM procedures with Ed Attanasio sentatives from a number of technol- and our editorial data to produce that ogy companies touting the potential specific accurate estimate.” benefits—for auto body shops and In discussing what AI estimatinsurers—of artificial intelligence ing offers shops specifically, the (AI) estimating, but also acknowl- panelists noted the wide variance edging some of its current limita- in estimates often seen even when tions. with Ed Attanasio different estimators look at the same “We’re not there yet, 100%, vehicle. AI can help collision repair with straight-through processing,” businesses increase consistency in said Dune Pagaduan of Mitchell their estimating, Pagaduan said. International, referring to AI being Panelist Jason Verlen of CCC capable of completing all estimates Intelligent Solutions said it also offers shops access to photos and inwith Ed Attanasio formation even before the customer arrives.
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“So there’s huge increases and improvements in cycle time” and the customer experience, Verlen said. “But it’s not like AI solves all the world’s problems.” He noted the panel moderator talked about recently watching an estimating contest at a Texas trade show in which 16 estimators writing for a quarter panel replacement on a mainstream vehicle came up with 16 different estimates, ranging from 130 lines to 400 lines. “So someone may ask me: ‘Is your AI accurate? Does it match what a human would do?’ My answer is: Which one of those [16] guys do you want me to match,” Verlen said. “That’s why I say AI is no magical bullet. That’s why we combine AI with build sheet data, with business rules, with insurer guidelines, and that’s how we come up with an estimate that’s reasonable to the situation.” He suggested to “reduce skepticism” among new users, the systems’ thresholds should be set high at first so “virtually everything the AI generates on an estimate a human will agree to.” Then gradually loosen the thresholds to get more
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Dune Pagaduan of Mitchell International said AI can help collision repair businesses increase consistency in their estimating
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Jason Verlen of CCC Intelligent Solutions said without human interaction. “So is about 22% of repairable claims are currently AI real? Sure, it assists us in making processed through AI photo-estimating and automating decisions, thousands at a time…more quickly so that we He noted as recently as three shrink cycle time. But you still need years ago, fewer than 1% of vehicle experts, humans, to complete the claims involved photo-estimating. with Stacey Phillips whole process.” “As of today, roughly 22% of He said AI systems can cur- repairable claims go through the rently write accurate estimates on process,” he said. “And we have “low-severity collisions.” some carriers on our system where “But when you get to higher over 70% of their repairable claims severity type collisions—more com- go through photo AI.” with Stacey Phillips CCC offers a product, Estiplex, more parts—then that’s the journey we have to go to get to that mate-STP, which, Verlen said, on 100%,” he said. “I think in the next low-impact collisions can write a two to three years, we’ll get there.” complete estimate with no needed The panelists were asked if any review or changes by a human. BeAI system built on historical data yond that, he acknowledged, it’s still can identify substrates, systems and “a joint process between the human with Stacey Phillips OEM procedures for nearly new ve- and the AI.” hicles often involved in collisions. But the AI does “make the pro “That is the challenge,” Pagad- cess much more efficient,” he said, uan said, noting historical data ide- in part by getting a consumer an esally needs to be paired with other in- timate faster, which in turn speeds formation in the system, like OEM their decision-making about choosbuild sheet data and OEM repair ing a shop and scheduling repairs.
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Jimmy Spears of Tractable said his company’s AI estimating system has become adept at quickly determining from photos if a vehicle is a total loss
complete estimates, he said, after skeptics have “been trained to see that it does work” even if there are at times a “difference in opinion.” Jimmy Spears of Tractable said his company’s artificial intelligence estimating system has become adept at quickly determining
from photos if a vehicle is a total loss. “One of things that AI does a wonderful job on is triage,” Spears said. “We’re in the high 90s of calling balls and strikes: Is this car repairable or is this car not repairable.” For insurers, he said, the system can produce 40% of initial estimates “without any further line items” needing to be added. An equal percentage require review of one or two line items—with the estimate annotated as to what an appraiser needs to review—while the balance will require being handled “old school: have it towed, take the car apart and go classic blueprinting.” Moving beyond that 40% of initial estimates “without any further line items” needing to be added will require greater access to vehicle-specific OEM build sheet data, he said. “If we get that, we’re going to have a greater understanding of that vehicle, the DNA of that car,” Spears said. “And then we’re going to have a much better understanding of what this car really needs, its repair process. We have got to solve the problem of build sheet data, and we’re in the right room for that.” In the interim, he said, AI estimating offers benefits to more than just insurers. Tractable has a test going with LKQ Corp., he said, using the technology in a bit of a reverse way: helping determine which parts are not damaged on salvage vehicles. It could also help collision repairers with the customer sales process, Spears said. Currently, estimators point a potential customer to a waiting area while preparing an estimate. “Instead, they’re going to be able to quickly take some images of the car, and then while the images are being processed, they can take the customer around the shop and show the investment that you have” in equipment, training and certifications, Spears suggested. “When they get back to the desk, here’s the estimate.”
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