V O L U M E 4 N O. 1 | F E B R U A RY 2 0 1 4
AUTOMATED VEHICLES:
THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY
Inside This Issue: Self-Driving Pods Coming to the UK Google, Automakers Form Alliance Will the Path to Automation be Safe?
V O L U M E 4 N O. 1 | F E B R U A RY 2 0 1 4
CONTENTS 8
4 Essential Components
6
The Latest in Automated Vehicles
Fast Facts A Look at the Stats That Matter With Driverless Vehicles
Automating Main Street Self-Driving Technology Could Shape the Future of Our Cities
16 Q & A
Leidos Connected Vehicle Testing
18 Timeline
Connect the DOT
12
State of the Art
24 Testing, Testing
Automated Driving Around the Globe
Sweden to Embark on Automated Driving Test
15 Technology Gap
28 End Users
Can Your Car be Hacked?
Will Drivers Really Adopt Autonomy?
On the Cover: New vehicle communication technologies and sensors could allow vehicles to talk to each other and their environment, changing the way we live. Photo courtesy U.S. Department of Transportation. Page 8.
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MISSION CRITICAL CONTACTS Michael Toscano President & CEO mtoscano@auvsi.org Gretchen West Executive Vice President gwest@auvsi.org Brett Davis Vice President of Publications and Communications, Editor bdavis@auvsi.org
21 The Car of the Future
And It’s Not So Far Away
Mike Greeson Senior Business Development Manager mgreeson@auvsi.org Ken Burris Sales Manager kburris@auvsi.org Dave Donahoe Sales Manager ddonahoe@auvsi.org
Danielle Lucey Managing Editor dlucey@auvsi.org
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS Gaea L. Honeycutt is chief creative officer at Brazen Maven Marketing Communications and is a freelance writer. Zach Rosenberg is a freelance journalist in Washington, D.C. Jeffrey N. Ross is an automotive journalist who grew up in Detroit and now lives in Jacksonville, Fla.
INDEX OF ADVERTISERS Integrated Microwave Technologies, Inc. (IMT) . . . . . . . . . 11 iRobot. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Inside Front Cover
26 Spotlight
If Automated Vehicles Malfunction, Who is to Blame?
Mission Critical is published four times a year as an official publication of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International. Contents of the articles are the sole opinions of the authors and do not necessarily express the policies or opinion of the publisher, editor, AUVSI or any entity of the U.S. government. Materials may not be reproduced without written permission. All advertising will be subject to publisher’s approval and advertisers will agree to indemnify and relieve publisher of loss or claims resulting from advertising contents. Annual subscription and back issue/ reprint requests may be addressed to AUVSI.
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EDITOR’S MESSAGE
On the Brink of a Revolution With Automated Vehicles? Brett Davis Vice President of Publications and Communications, Editor
‘
Apple’s late CEO Steve Jobs was once shown an invention so amazing that he said cities would be built around it. That was the Segway. It is amazing, but that prediction didn’t quite pan out. With automated vehicles, though, it could be true.
’
This column is one of the last things to be written before this issue of the magazine was finished. It could have been done a lot sooner if I could have worked on it while driving to work, or, rather, while being driven to work by an autonomous vehicle. Here’s one scenario: I pop out of my house, poke a button on my smartphone (or smart watch or a little button implanted in my head) and a minute or two later a car comes trundling down the street. I hop in the car, which is easy, because the seats are comfortable and the steering wheel is recessed into the dashboard, or maybe there’s no steering wheel at all. The car says hello in a voice not unlike Apple’s Siri personal assistant. Maybe it finds my favorite radio station. Maybe it tells me a joke (“Why did the driverless car cross the road? Because it wanted to.”). Then I can plug in my laptop or tablet and work on this column while the car takes me to work. Maybe I’m getting so much work done that I’m surprised when I arrive. Sound farfetched? If you read through this issue, you’ll see that it’s not. We take a look at the future of mobility, and a lot of that future is already in place now. It just hasn’t come together yet. Starting on Page 8 of this issue, writer Jeffrey Ross takes a look at how automated vehicles could change the face of our cities. It has happened before, such as when the transition was made from horses to cars. Apple’s late CEO Steve Jobs was once shown an invention so amazing that he said cities would be built around it. That was the Segway. It is amazing, but that prediction didn’t quite pan out. With automated vehicles, though, it could be true, and Ross describes how this could play out: more urban density without traffic jams, more livable space in cities because parking structures wouldn’t have to be centrally located. Cars themselves could change, shedding much of the bulk currently aimed at keeping their occupants safe. Ditching weight means better fuel economy and smaller size, and cars could even fold up for easy parking. Elsewhere in the issue, we focus on the various technologies required to make this happen, the testing intended to ensure that it’s done safely, and even the philosophical and business hurdles still to be overcome, such as the issue of liability. You won’t see me working on this column on our nation’s highways anytime soon, but that day will come.
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Self-Driving Pods are Coming to the UK
Ann Arbor Predicts Driverless Cars on its Roads by 2021 The Mobility Transformation Center, a cross-campus University of Michigan effort, predicts that driverless cars will be on the Ann Arbor streets by 2021. “Ann Arbor will be seen as the leader in 21st century mobility,” says Peter Sweatman, director of the UM Transportation Research Institute, in a press release. “We want to demonstrate fully driverless vehicles operating within the whole infrastructure of the city within an eight-year timeline and to show that these can be safe, effective and commercially successful.”
Illustrations of what the self-driving pods coming to Milton Keynes might look like. Images courtesy Transport Systems Catapult.
In the beginning of 2015, self-driving pods will be popping up in the town of Milton Keynes in the United Kingdom. There will be a total of 100 pods that will be able to transfer citizens to popular locations such as the train station, shops and office parks. The pods will be able to carry two passengers and their belongings. They will have their own specific lane on the highways and travel at a maximum speed of 12 mph. The pods will be fully electric to achieve the program’s pollution goals. The initial roll out is slated for 2015, but the full plan will be in place by 2017. “Driverless cars are another invention that has the potential to generate the kind of high-skilled jobs we want Britain to be famous for, as well as cutting congestion and pollution and improving road safety,” says Vince Cable, U.K. secretary of state for business, innovation and skills. Passengers will be able to call for the pods from their smartphones through
an app at a cost of two pounds per trip. Using motion detecting cameras and GPS sensors, the pods will be careful to avoid other vehicles and pedestrians. Passengers will have to be aware of their surroundings and have the ability to control the pod with a joystick in case something malfunctions. Cable also recently announced a 1.5 million pound project that will test driverless cars in a pedestrian area for the first time.
Click this QR code to see an animation of how the planned Milton Keynes pods will work.
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The Mobility Transformation Center’s safety pilot demonstration. Photo courtesy the University of Michigan.
The ground-breaking goal would completely change how individuals and goods would be transported. It would be the first of many changes for how transportation is seen in today’s society. “We’ve now entered into a period where the technology and the business models are coming together to allow us to break out of this 100-year dependence on what we’ve always known,” says Larry Burns, a professor of practice at Michigan Engineering and former head of research and development for General Motors. Currently, an experiment is underway, which involves 3,000 residents who are interacting in networked vehicles. The center is also working on creating a state-of-the-art testing environment. The environment is near the school’s north campus and is built to simulate a busy city scenario. This site will further allow researchers to better develop driverless car safety and response time in a busy urban setting, according to the university.
ESSENTIAL COMPONENTS Texas Instruments TDA2x Brings CuttingEdge Technology to Driverless Cars Texas Instruments released its new TDA2x, an automotive System-on-Chip visual component that works with the company’s Vision AccelerationPac, to help create advanced driver assistance systems and increase driver safety. The new system will help reduce the amount of collisions that occur and allow the driver to experience autonomous experiences, according to the company. TI has unveiled its TDA2x, incorporating its Vision AccelerationPac, for autonomous driving applica tions. Photo courtesy Texas Instruments Inc. The system is equipped with vision analytics, video, graphics and general processing cores to enable a variety of applications, such as a front-viewing camera, surround view and sensor fusion. The TDA2x family allows the system to interact with other vehicles to be safer on the road. The front camera allows the car to recognize traffic signals, pedestrians and objects and can assist in keeping the vehicle in a lane. It can also detect high beams and sound a warning when there is the possibility of a rear collision. All of these features are programmed so that they may run simultaneously. The system is built to have a low-power footprint. It can adapt to the needs of the consistently changing advanced driver assistance systems market, according to the company. The TDA2x is anticipated to have the highest safety rating certified by the ISO 26262 functional safety standard and will be distributed to high-volume manufacturers, according to a TI press release.
Car Companies, Google Form Connected Vehicle Alliance Audi, GM, Google, Honda, Hyundai and NVIDIA Corp. have formed the Open Automotive Alliance, a collaboration that will see Android platform devices integrated with vehicles starting this year. The effort is aimed at offering connected vehicle technology, a goal that mirrors recent U.S. Department of Transportation work in Michigan with a vehicle-to-vehicle communications test bed. The OAA website says it has been in contact with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration regarding its efforts. The alliance also wants to speed up innovation using a singular software platform that could enable added safety and intuition with changing automotive interfaces, according to a press release. “Millions of people are already familiar with Android and use it every day,” says Sundar Pichai, senior vice president of Android, Chrome and Apps at Google. “The expansion of the Android platform into automo-
tive will allow our industry partners to more easily integrate mobile technology into cars and offer drivers a familiar, seamless experience so they can focus on the road.” The addition of technology company NVIDIA adds a visual computation component to the alliance. “The car is the ultimate mobile computer. With onboard supercomputing chips, futuristic cars of our dreams will no longer be science fiction,” says Jen-Hsun Huang, president and chief executive officer at NVIDIA. “The OAA will enable the car industry to bring these amazing cars to market faster.” The alliance website says it welcomes new members from the automotive and technology communities. The alliance says its formation benefits drivers, who have been unsafely trying to access mobile devices while driving. The release says that while each automaker will have its own timeline for integration, they should all be underway by the end of 2014.
Google Glass to be Offered in Line of Mercedes-Benz Vehicles Google Glass will be available in Mercedes-Benz products as soon as it is released. The company is offering a new Google Glass automotive app in 2014 that will be able to take on autonomous features for the vehicle if needed. The app will be able to guide drivers to their car, transfer an address or location to the vehicle navigation system and then continue to guidance if the driver leaves the vehicle. The new technology will be the first of its kind and will be able to access information via smartphones, computers, tablets and other technology devices. It will also be voice sensitive and can respond to commands.
Speaking to industry journal Automotive News Europe, MercedesBenz North American research and development head Johann Jungwirth said in a news story that the German manufacturer has developed a navigation app that will merge driving with “digital living.” The user will not have to wear Google Glass for it to be integrated into the technology, according to Jungwirth, an act which recently got a woman in California a traffic ticket. The company hopes the app will be able to expand into other areas and be able to assist with traffic updates, social media and music controls inside the vehicle.
Click this QR code to see a video of The Wall Street Journal’s interview with Johann Jungwirth, president and CEO of Mercedes-Benz research and development, on integration with Google Glass.
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Automated Vehicles EFFICIENCY
4.2 BILLION
lost hours (one work week for every traveler) Traffic congestion is an
$87.2 BILLION
annual drain on the U.S. economy
Up to
10%
of police time is spent dealing with traffic
!
automated vehicles ... Follow each other more closely, increasing existing road capacity Reduce car accidents and decrease traffic congestion React faster and together increasing capacity through intersections
automated vehicles ...
SAFETY
Have faster reaction time than a human Can see 360 degrees In 2010
35,000 PEOPLE
lost their lives in crashes in the United States
Cost of crashes to the U.S. economy is more than
$230 BILLION
per year and consumes a greater share of national healthcare costs than any other cause of illness or injury
Are programmed to follow local traffic laws Never get distracted, tired or impaired have the Potential to dramatically reduce crashes and car - related injuries and deaths
FAST FACTS
POLLUTION
22% OF CO2
emissions come from cars and trucks
2.8 BILLION gallons of wasted fuel each year
automated vehicles ... Allow for more efficient and effective use of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles Increase capacity on roads, reduce car accidents, efficiently redirect themselves to reduce backups
ACCESSIBILITY 53.5 MILLION PEOPLE over the age of 65 in the U.S. by 2020
22 MILLION PEOPLE
over the age of 75 in 2020, expected to double by 2050.
65+ 75+
automated vehicles ... Allow for mobility for those who may have difficulty safely driving a vehicle: blind, aging, physically impaired
states that have legalized automated vehicles : California, District of Columbia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada
bills in the works to legalize :
Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin
Volvo’s senior technical leader for safety and driver support says selfparking cars could eliminate the need for centralized parking garages. Photo courtesy Volvo Car Group.
Automating Main Street Self-Driving Vehicle Technology Could Shape the Future of Our Cities By Jeffrey N. Ross
According to the World Health Organization, 60 percent of the world’s population will live in an urban area by 2030 and increase to 70 percent by 2050, up from about 8
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50 percent in 2010. Some large cities are already crippled by congestion, pollution and expandability, but with this kind of population density on the horizon, the problem
is sure to get far more serious and on a much larger scale. Until the day when cars are able to fly high above the clouds or fold up into a briefcase-sized package like on “The Jetsons,” one of the more complicated challenges brought on by this growth will be to urban mobility. Fortunately, companies around the world — including major automakers — are looking to answer these challenges with the development of advanced technologies that will eventually lead us to autonomous vehicles. As it turns out, selfdriving cars will not only produce obvious advantages such as safer roadways with fewer distracted drivers, but they will also help change how the cities of today become the cities of tomorrow.
SHAPING OUR NEW ROADS It might not be the technology that needs to be developed to get to the point where autonomous vehicles are widespread. Instead, it will be the human aspect that will require the most change, as the people actually buying and operating the vehicles must be more accepting of relinquishing driving duties to a car. Baby steps to get to this point will likely come from vehicleto-vehicle communications and eventually a more in-depth vehicleto-infrastructure technology.
envisions a day where pedestrians and cyclists would have wearable devices — possibly even through their smartphone — that would allow other cars to “see” them and avoid collisions. The cars and the technology are there, he said, but the current infrastructure needs to catch up. Bamonte likened the current automated vehicle technologies to the early days of the car. Just like the Ford Model T had to deal with the primitive muddy
ed, automated vehicles could be programmed for closer following distances and more precise driving, such as less side-to-side motion in the lane, which would allow cities to increase vehicle capacity and reduce the width of traffic lanes. As urban centers grow, it is unlikely roadways will be able to expand much, so it will be necessary for cities to maximize existing space. “Cities could squeeze more cars onto the roads, allowing urban
Mike Shulman, the technical leader at Ford for global driver assistance and active safety, said V2V and V2I initially will focus on improving vehicle safety. Once drivers learn to trust their cars driving themselves, connected automation would be the next step. Ford and a handful of other automakers just wrapped up the testing of 2,700 vehicles in a large-scale V2V test in Ann Arbor, Mich., and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking at whether to regulate V2V in a production vehicle and how it can do so. The devices used in this test were warning systems for drivers, systems that could not actively stop or steer the vehicle. Shulman says half the cars on the road could be equipped with this technology within the next 10 years. Through this step, about 80 percent of all two-vehicle crashes could be “addressed” and possibly even mitigated with the ability to see around corners, over hills and detect if a vehicle might drive through an intersection. This safety wouldn’t just be for motorists either. Thomas Bamonte, the general counsel for transportation agencies for the North Texas Tollway Authority,
V2V communication could allow cars to drive more precisely, maximizing road space and reducing congestion. Image courtesy Department of Transportation.
roads of that era, so too modern automakers and companies — such as Google — must find ways to overcome current obstacles like the undeveloped infrastructure. ADDING TO INFRASTRUCTURE Once the world gets to a point where the technology and infrastructure are in place for cars to drive themselves, that’s when the real change will begin to truly improve urban mobility. Connect-
areas to get denser,” Bamonte says, adding that some changes will be required to fit with how a smart car operates. “Our roadways have stripes and signs that are a certain width and certain reflectivity for humans to see, but we need to start thinking, ‘How does a smart car see?’ so machines can keep cars within lanes more effectively and more safely.” Another element of automated vehicles that many automakers are working on is self-parking vehicles. MISSION CRITICAL
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Volvo’s Drive Me project will test autonomous driving in Gothenburg, one of Sweden’s densely populated cities. Photo courtesy Volvo Car Group.
Just as self-driving cars could create more space on existing roads, self-parking cars would allow parking structures to maximize space as well. Even better, Dr. Erik Coelingh, senior technical leader for safety and driver support at Volvo, said self-parking cars could eliminate the need for centralized parking garages, which would open more livable space in dense urban areas. On this front, Coelingh also mentioned Volvo’s recently announced Drive Me project, which will see 100 autonomous vehicles being tested by the regular drivers on the public roads of Gothenburg, Sweden, by 2017. This densely populated city will play a perfect backdrop for how autonomous vehicles will improve urban mobility. Volvo has been known for its safe cars for some time, and while safety plays a part in this project, it is also looking at ways to ease key prob10
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lems associated with urban driving: traffic congestion and fuel economy. “An autonomous car will be able to smoothen out traffic flow so you will have the potential to make safety, fuel consumption and traffic flow improvements, and together these will make a more sustainable transportation system,” Coelingh said. Joerg Schlinkheider, a senior manager at Volkswagen’s Electronics Research Lab in California, backed up this sentiment about how autonomous vehicles can help the environment, because the technology allows a car to drive in a “smoother, more continuous manner” compared to a human driver. Volkswagen and Audi are developing autonomous technologies for use in near-term production vehicles, offering traffic jam assistance. This lower speed technology, for use at speeds of up to 40 mph, allows the car to brake, steer, and
accelerate in stop-and-go traffic on its own for improved vehicle safety and driver convenience. One of the challenges remains how to keep the systems operational when weather and visibility are poor, and Audi is using a full battery of devices like radar, lasers and cameras to give the car the best information possible, but in heavy snow and ice conditions, it could leave the system unusable — a glaring hurdle standing in the way of fully autonomous vehicles. CHANGING THE CAR ITSELF? Of course, the conversation about the future of urban mobility can’t be complete without talking about the actual vehicles. Audi points out that even when autonomous vehicles do become more prevalent on the roadways, vehicle designs probably won’t be changing anytime soon. Schlinkheider says that the Audi design
give the car a smaller footprint and make parking an easier. At the end of the day, the answer to when this type of technology will become readily available to consumers ultimately comes down to who is willing to take the plunge first. The classic chicken-and-the-egg dilemma has automakers waiting for consumers to be ready to purchase, and the infrastructure and automakers are
Toyota’s e-grus concept contracts into a smaller size to make parking easier. Image courtesy L.A. International Auto Show.
waiting on each other to develop. Bamonte expects a “state of rapid change” to develop in the autonomous vehicle arena over the next three to five years, while Schlinkheider thinks that widespread use of this technology could arrive “within a decade.” Either way, as the technology that surrounds us continues to advance, it’s fascinating to think about exactly how it will all affect the future of mobility for both safety and convenience.
language is just as important to its customers as safety or convenience, so it will look for ways to “seamlessly integrate” the technology into the current designs. Audi spokesperson Brad Stertz added that the automaker isn’t expecting vehicle design to change anytime soon. “There’s been a lot of talk that once fully autonomous cars are in place, there might be less of a need for some of the features that we now have mandated for safety enhancements,” Stertz said. “It’s a long way away from changing the design and the regulations that influence design.” But it doesn’t hurt to imagine. For the last 10 years, the Los Angeles International Auto Show has put on a themed design challenge, and last year’s theme was biomimicry and mobility for the year 2025. While these are simply visions of design studies that have no production implication, some of the entrants last year provided a hopeful glimpse into the future of incorporating vehicles into an urban environment. The winning design was from Chinese automaker SAIC Motor, which featured pod-like cars that could dock with a residence. In a similar idea as “The Jetsons” briefcase car, Toyota dreamed up the e-grus, which is a sleek, normallength car that contracts into a shape more like a high-heel shoe to
n n n n n n
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A UT OMAT ED D RIVING A R O U N D
TAMPA, FLA. The University of South Florida recently announced that its Center for Urban Transportation Research is pioneering the Automated Vehicle Institute, which will help navigate the policy and planning issues automated vehicles present.
T H E
G L O B E
PITTSBURGH, PA. Carnegie Mellon University converted a Cadillac SRX into a self-driving car, outfitting it with an array of sensors and radars. The Caddie took U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Barry Schoch, the state transportation secretary, on a 33-mile ride that gave them a glimpse of the future.
OXFORDSHIRE, UK The University of Oxford and Nissan have been working on the Robotcar project at the Begbroke Science Park. The low-cost vehicle modification adds 5,000 pounds to a typical vehicle price.
Sﾃグ PAULO An institute at Sﾃ｣o Paulo University is working on CaRINA, a self-driving car that uses GPS, cameras and lasers to intelligently navigate.
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RAMNICU VALCEA, ROMANIA High school student Ionut Budisteanu won the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair with his design for a self-driving car that would require only $4,000 worth of components.
STATE OF THE ART
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS Delft University and the TNO research institute, which are working on the Dutch Automated Vehicle Initiative, recently took Transport Minister Melanie Schultz for a spin in an automated vehicle on Amsterdam’s A10 ring road.
Just as cars have come to dominate transportation around the world, now many places are catching automated vehicle fever, investing in the technology, projecting its success and creating new ways to use it. Here is a look at current activities from every corner of the Earth.
MUNICH/HANOVER, GERMANY BMW and automotive component supplier Continental announced they have signed an agreement to jointly develop an electronic copilot system that can support highly automated driving. The goal is to have such systems in place by 2020.
TOKYO, JAPAN At an industry conference in late 2013, automakers GM and Toyota executives both touted the benefits that automated driving could have on the country’s aging population. According to the National Police Agency, of the 4,411 people who died in Japan in 2012, 2,264 of them were 65 or older.
YOKOHAMA, JAPAN Nissan Motor Co. took the Grand Prix, or top prize, in the CEATEC Innovation Awards competition with its Autonomous Drive technology, which it installed in a Nissan Leaf automobile demonstrated at the show. EVELEIGH, AUSTRALIA New South Wales company Emotiv is developing an interface that measures driver attention that would slow the vehicle if the person’s brain registered the proper distraction signals.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA Local officials from the Motor Trade Association of Western Australia, bolstered by a U.S. Center for Automotive Research report on the future of driving autonomy, said the region needs to take action to plan for these futuristic cars’ presence on the road.
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TECHNOLOGY GAP
Can Your Car be Hacked? Safety and cost — these are the main factors that feed consumers’ desire to adopt a self-driving car according to a recent survey by CarInsurance. com. One in five consumers would switch to a driverless option today. If that increased safety also came with an 80 percent car insurance discount, the number jumps to 34 percent of those polled that would be “very likely” to buy now. These two issues are big factors for consumers right now, but what about privacy? It’s an issue that has gained a lot of public attention recently, including high-profile data collection by the National Security Administration and frequent headlines on unmanned aerial vehicle technology and spying. With automated vehicles in their infancy, privacy has not been thoroughly addressed in a public way. And with GM and Nissan both predicting the sale of autonomous vehicles by 2020, the time to do so may be ticking away. HACKING NOW Hacking into a modern car isn’t only possible; it’s already been done. In 2011, researchers from the University of Washington and the University of California San Diego both successfully hacked into the control systems of an unnamed brand of car to takeover features such as the computerized display and the vehicle’s brakes. This code cracking was possible because many modern vehicles use Bluetooth wireless technology and cellular connections. And hacking isn’t necessary for people outside of a car to know where it’s going and what it’s doing. Electric car manufacturer Tesla recently pulled the plug on a negative review in The New York Times. The
Tesla was able to remotely tap into information from one of its cars to disprove claims from The New York Times. Photo courtesy Tesla Motors.
writer claimed his Model S quickly had its maximum driving range drop after a full charge, and after he followed the company’s instructions, including adjusting temperature control, to maximize the juice left, the car eventually “limped along at 45 mph” and ran out of power on the highway, leaving him stranded. Company founder Elon Musk quickly dismissed the paper’s claims and pulled the vehicle’s logs, which showed the car was never fully charged, that it was driven faster than claimed in the article, that the heat was on and the driver took a lengthy detour — quite a bit of information on the actions and whereabouts of a driver the span of a continent away. WHITE-HAT HACKERS In August 2013, two white-hat hackers — coders that break into systems with the intent to expose weak points before others can do so maliciously — released a report that exposed that hackers can go far beyond controlling only a car’s brakes and electronic display. Dr. Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, in their paper “Adventures in Automotive Networks and Control Units,” discuss how they took complete almost control over a Ford Escape and a Toyota Prius, two car
models that have been used in highprofile driverless car demonstrations. The pair were able to manipulate the cars, which have features such as active park assist, lane keeping and a pre-collision system, by tapping into their electronic control units (ECUs). Those units are networked together on a minimum of one computing bus on the car’s controller area network (CAN). Spoofing data packets that were interpreted by the vehicles controlled things like the speedometer, odometer, fuel gauge, onboard navigation, steering, braking, acceleration, lights, horn and engine. Many of these hacks were possible via the computational components already in the cars because of their driver-assist features. The good news is, the paper says it is straightforward to detect the attacks they made by running vehicle diagnostics. The authors say they hope the paper leads to more discussion on how car hacking may become a reality so electronic control units can be made in a more secure way. “Automobiles have been designed with safety in mind. However, you cannot have safety without security,” the paper says. “If an attacker (or even a corrupted ECU) can send CAN packets, these might affect the safety of the vehicle.” MISSION CRITICAL
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LEIDOS CONNECTED VEHICLE TESTING Leidos’ connected vehicle team coordinates with multiple agencies to test and implement safety and mobility solutions through vehicle wireless communications. Greg Kruger is the connected vehicle program manager, Jeremy Durst Sr. is the network engineer and Frank Perry is the senior systems engineer at the company. The facts, views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the respondents and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Leidos, the U.S. Department of Transportation or any agency of the U.S. government. Q: What are the basics of testing connected vehicle technology? What scenarios has Leidos worked on? Greg Kruger: Because connected vehicle systems and applications, especially V2V [vehicle-to-vehicle] and V2I [vehicle-to-infrastructure] using 5.9-gigahertz DSRC [dedicated short-range communications] technology, are in their infancy, a significant amount of testing is necessary. The Leidos team is currently testing virtually every component in the chain, including the over-the-air messages, the backhaul necessary to support applications and central systems necessary to process applications and make decisions, which includes security — both network security and the security required to enable trust between those communicating with one another. A successful deployment requires a complete system, and the Leidos team is currently the only organization testing as much of the system as is possible/developed at this time. Jeremy Durst Sr.: Leidos’ primary role resides in the support and maintenance of the U.S. DOT [Department of Transportation] Connected Vehicle Test Bed in Novi, Mich. In this role, Leidos maintains the hardware and software required to facilitate vehicular communications within the test bed. The test bed allows users 16
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to test their developed connected vehicle hardware and software on live roads. These products are passive in nature, and therefore do not pose a liability to the public. Leidos has also been involved in connected vehicle technology through various contracts and subcontracts, which include development and maintenance of the Security Credential Management System design and deployment of connected vehicle infrastructure for ITS World Congress 2011 and 2014 and vendor interoperability testing. SCMS is utilized by the U.S. DOT Safety Pilot Model Deployment, led by the University of Michigan, which equipped approximately 3,000 passenger vehicles with connected vehicle technology. Vendor interoperability testing has helped to ensure that different equipment manufacturers interpret and implement the standards that govern connected vehicle communications correctly. How much of a factor are the vehicles themselves in having a successful vehicleto-vehicle interaction versus the communications devices used between cars? Durst: When considering vehicle communication for safety applications, the biggest factor is ensuring the communication device is aware of the vehicle’s attributes. A small passenger car requires less
stopping distance and less room on the road than a semi truck. An additional factor that can limit or extend the capabilities of safety applications is the amount and accuracy of information provided by the vehicle’s internal systems. Since this varies widely amongst vehicle manufacturers, the most basic safety applications do not rely on this information to function correctly. Frank Perry: At this stage in the development, the vehicle itself is not as important as the communication/interaction between the vehicles. The vehicle manufactures are the experts for their products and will adapt the technology for use in all of their product lines. The U.S. DOT, with technical assistance from Leidos, focuses on developing and verifying the technology. What kind of spectrum issues can you test for when dealing with connected vehicles? Durst: While Leidos has not been heavily involved in the testing of the 5.9-gigahertz DSRC spectrum, it is a primary consideration in the design and deployment of roadside infrastructure that supports connected vehicle communication. Interference, line-of-site and multipath issues are all taken into consideration when deploying roadside infrastructure. How would vehicle-to-infrastructure testing vary from vehicle-to-vehicle tests? Kruger: V2I testing requires a significant investment in infrastructure as the testing requires roadside devices, backhaul communications systems, central data processing, storage and man-
Q&A intelligent cruise control systems that minimize accordion effects. Likewise, for V2I safety applications, they are 100 percent effective for all equipped vehicles. For V2V applications, the saturation needs to be higher for the safety applications to be effective. Durst: In my mind, even if only 5 percent of vehicles have this technology, but it still saves a life, then it was effective. The higher the saturation, the more effective the technology. How do you determine which scenarios are critical and need intervention versus less serious driving situations?
A connected vehicle test bed. Photo courtesy Leidos.
agement systems, and network security. These components are not required for V2V testing. Durst: Vehicle-to-infrastructure testing usually involves the successful transfer of information relevant to the driver or vehicle. This information can potentially augment safety systems; however, they are not reliant on it to function. Testing in this case is feasible on the road, since we are not recreating crash scenarios on live roads. Vehicle-to-vehicle testing, on the other hand, is more limited on the open road, and a majority of testing would be accomplished on a closed course.
dor of 22 continuous intersections that broadcast the current state of the traffic signals. Reproducing a stretch of more than a couple of intersections within a lab or on a closed course is cost prohibitive. How much V2V saturation does there need to be in the fleet for the technology to be effective?
How does this kind of testing translate to real-world driving conditions?
Perry: It’s difficult to give an exact number, but the U.S. DOT safety pilot has collected roughly 12 million vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle interactions, not including duplicates, with just 26 roadside units and approximately 3,000 vehicles in a small city. That seems to indicate that the penetration rate required to provide noticeable benefit would be relatively low.
Durst: Many vehicle-to-infrastructure applications provide useful information to a vehicle or driver. For example, on Telegraph Road in Southfield, Mich., there is a corri-
Kruger: It really depends on the application. Some applications can have a huge impact with a very small penetration simply because of car-following models, such as
Durst: These algorithms are application specific and specific to the application developers. In general, any event that occurs in the hyperlocal area of a vehicle would be considered critical. Which active safety features show the most promise when coupled with V2V technology? Durst: It seems to me that any additional information that can be gained through the use of V2V technology will enhance the capabilities of active safety features. They all show promise. Perry: One of the critical safety objectives of the technology and the most promising is collision avoidance. When vehicles refuse to crash, tens of thousands of lives will be saved every year. With radar/lidar, vehicles have to detect and predict the behavior of the other vehicles around them. With V2V technology, vehicles will announce their presence and inform other vehicles of their intent. V2V technology provides vehicles and drivers more time to react/respond to potential threats. MISSION CRITICAL
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Connect the Since the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Transportation has been planning the road ahead for connected vehicle technology, which could transform driving into a safer experience. It has also been focusing on connecting these
DOT vehicles to the infrastructure around them, creating intelligent roadways that could better handle traffic and urban density. Here is a look at DOT’s path toward a connected vehicle future since that time.
2000 U.S. Transportation Secretary Rodney E. Slater announced the debut of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), a digital sensor network that would use communications and computer technology to ease congestion and aid traffic mobility.
2002 The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) began studying connected cars with DSRC technology.
1999 In 1999, the Federal Communications Commission set aside part of the wireless spectrum, in the 5.9-gigahertz range, for Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC), which was designed to allow vehicles and related infrastructure to transfer information to each other.
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2008 The U.S. DOT announced that it was seeking business models for vehicle-to-infrastructure communications networks.
TIMELINE 2011 The DOT’s Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA) announced the Connected Vehicle Technology Challenge. The competition sought ideas on how to use wireless technology between vehicles. The challenge also ended in the same year and went onto fund six
The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute gained funding from DOT to move forward with connected vehicle technology tests.
research concepts on V2V technology.
2013
2015
DOT announced that, through
The DOT projects that
RITA, it would enter into eight
FHWA will release early
test bed agreements to test
deployment guidelines of
vehicle communications.
V2V technology around this timeframe.
2014 The Michigan test bed will operate, in collaboration with the University of Michigan, beginning in September,
2012 The ITS Joint Program Office
according to projections. This will be in time for the 2014 World Congress on ITS in Detroit.
released three reports on connected vehicle policies, relating concepts of governance for
The United States and European
the integration of V2V and V2I
Union worked together to release a
technology.
report on how the two would work together to develop connected vehicle standards. The DOT and Europe’s Commission Directorate General for Communication Networks, Content and Technology displayed their efforts at the ITS World Congress in Vienna.
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Self-Driving Benefits are Clear, but Will They be Embraced? vehicle and maintains full awareness of what the system is doing,” it says. LIKELY SUSPECTS Will people like self-driving cars? It depends. Engineering and Technology magazine recently commissioned a point-counterpoint debate on the issue of whether a future with driverless cars is one to embrace. Taking the “no” side was Marek Reichman, director of design at British luxury sportscar maker Aston Martin.
Google’s self-driving Lexus, which could help lead to more automated vehicles. Photo courtesy Google.
While the societal benefits of automated driving may be clear — fewer accidents, more efficient driving — one question remains. Will people be willing to give up control of their cars? People love driving, and the romance of the open road is found in many countries. However, consumers have also been willing to hand over vehicle control when it makes sense. Antilock brake systems began appearing on automobiles in the 1970s, becoming standard equipment in the decades that followed. More recently, vehicles have been equipped with technology that helps keep drivers in their lanes or parks the car. Adding vehicle automation via these driver-assist features is likely to be the way much of this technology comes to market, at least initially. CoverHound, an online insurance broker, was quoted by The Economist magazine as noting 20
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that insurance companies are offering premium discounts for vehicles with driver-assist features. Eventually, manual driving will essentially be penalized by costing more. However, the interface between people and their ever-more-helpful cars needs to be thought through, according to a research paper from MIT’s Humans and Automation Laboratory (which has since moved to Duke University). “While ultimately in the future the driver won’t be needed, these systems currently require a human to be in the driver’s seat and allow (and in some cases, expect) the driver to assume control at specific points in time. It is here that the problem lies: As long as a human operator has some expectation of shared authority, either primary or secondary, the design of the automation must be such that they operator fully understands the capabilities and limitations of the
“The idea that the brand would create a sports car in which the driver was required to offer minimal or no input into the process of driving — beyond the requirement of actually being present in the car — simply does not accord with the Aston Martin ethos,” he wrote. For new generations, however, the answer is likely to be yes. A recent Virginia Tech Transportation Institute driving study concluded that reaching for a phone, dialing or texting increases the risk of getting into an accident by three times. For many, however, the texting isn’t the real distraction — driving is the distraction. Others who would likely benefit from autonomous vehicles are the disabled and the elderly. The Hartford and MIT AgeLab tallied the top technology breakthroughs that benefit older drivers in a 2012 study, and most of them were of the driver-assist variety, including blind spot warning systems, lane departure warnings, vehicle stability control, assistive parking and drowsy driver alerts.
Nissan’s planned autonomous driving technology is an extension of its Safety Shield, which monitors a 360-degree view around a vehicle for risks, offers warnings to the driver and takes action if necessary. Image courtesy Nissan Motor Co.
The Car of the Future And It’s Not So Far Away By Zach Rosenberg
There is no longer any real question that self-driving cars will be part of the future. Already several manufacturers — Nissan and Mercedes among them — have pledged to bring self-driving technology to market by 2020 or sooner, and while that deadline may slip, it is a concrete indicator that the technology is coming. Major manufacturers and academic researchers have been toying with sensors and computer logic for years, with limited self-driving capabilities deployed incrementally. Following the first DARPA Challenge in 2004, investment increased exponentially, as did development.
Self-driving technology is
already in the marketplace in limited ways, restricted largely to low-speed situations like traffic jams or places where variables are limited, such as highways. That is changing as each year more and more technology is refined and introduced into the marketplace and the computers that allow autonomy are allowed more authority. The future of automation and the future of locomotion increasingly appear inseparably intertwined. And yet the systems for consideration are very much experimental, and when introduced to market they are sure to be in the same quirky, frustrating, possibly dangerous molds of any
first-generation technology. It will be very different once the problems and quirks are largely worked out and consumer-grade autonomous systems reach real technical maturity and market acceptance. What the autonomous car of the future looks like is, of course, unpredictable, but given current trends there are a few safe bets to be made. “The big themes are improving fuel economy and energy efficiency, connectivity and active safety. Those are the three biggest themes that exist,” says Ron Lache, an automotive industry analyst for Deutsche Bank. “And in some ways autonomous driving is connected to all three of them.” ENERGY Power is one of the largest issues in the industry today, and battery technology appears to be a clear winner, although alternatives like hydrogen fuel cells and compressed natural gas are still viable. The drawbacks of using batteries — limited range, lengthy recharge times — make them unappealing to consumers, but sales of hybrid-powered vehicles are MISSION CRITICAL
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likely to soar. By 2040, one of every two cars will run on alternate fuels, according to one Exxon Mobile study, with gasoline-electric hybrids comprising the vast majority. To get maximum range, those hybrid vehicles will need to set a premium on drawing energy from as many sources as possible. Many hybrid and electric vehicles now generate a little power through regenerative braking, substituting conventional brake pads for tiny generators to charge the battery using the kinetic energy of the slowing car, but this is just the beginning. There are many incremental sources of energy now wasted that can be captured, from engine heat and hot exhaust fumes to the sunlight that hits the car and the wind flowing around it. Combined with lighter materials and more efficient engines, future vehicles will not only capture much more wasted energy but require less of it to move. Self-driving cars can contribute in unique ways, letting the onboard computer decide which energy sources to use and when, and also allowing vehicles to switch between them within microseconds. Letting the computer figure things out also means adaptive consumption, allowing the car to weigh variables that people cannot readily see (such as wind or road traction) and choosing its route and driving style accordingly. The car could even adjust exterior panels for optimum aerodynamic performance. But this pales in comparison to when selfdriving cars can collaborate. That requires communications. CONNECTIVITY Vehicles have lagged behind the era of the information superhighway, but the question now is not when it starts but where it ends. 22
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There are essentially two communications methods, and cars will handle both depending on the data needed. The first is vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, or V2I, which is useful for centralized data. The second is vehicle-to-vehicle communications, or V2V, allowing your car to communicate with other cars in its vicinity. V2I communications will allow a wealth of data to be transmitted to each car individually, including real-time traffic congestion, signal light timing, parking availability by individual space and flight delays. “Imagine a city like Washington, D.C., or Northern Virginia having complete awareness of all the cars on the road, all the density and bottlenecks, and from a central place issuing advisories that go straight to the driver’s throttle control,” says Richard Bishop, an industry consultant. “That’s how traffic gets smoothed out. Traffic jams are much more unusual in that scenario.” V2V is equally promising, allowing the computers of each car to work together, removing the guesswork and surprise of driving. Each car could broadcast its intentions in advance, allowing vehicles around it to account for exactly what will happen, leading to seamless highway lane merges and cooperative split-second responses to problems and accidents. Vehicles could cooperate to reduce fuel consumption on long journeys, tying themselves closely together in columns with minimal separation, allowing each car to draft behind the one in front to reducing wind resistance. The cars could segregate themselves by model to eke out even the smallest efficiencies. Vehicles could even inform one another of sudden problems ahead: Imagine a deer jumping into the
road, with at least one car sensing and predicting its trajectory and broadcasting it, allowing approaching cars in opposing highway lanes to flow smoothly around it as it continues to the opposite side but pre-adapting to its unpredictable behavior. HOW WILL THEY LOOK? Almost all of the experimental self-driving vehicles today are modified from conventional cars, lending some of them — those with roof-mounted lidar in particular — a somewhat clunky feel. But the closer self-driving cars get to production, the more emphasis
Rinspeed’s XchangE concept would move the pesky steering wheel out of the way of vital coffee mugs. Image courtesy Rinspeed.
Another redering of Rinspeed’s interior concept.
will be placed on how the cars look. Lidar units are getting smaller — Google is about to equip a car with one the size of a soda can — but incorporating some of the unit’s
Nissan announced in the summer of 2013 that the company will be ready with multiple commercially viable Autonomous Drive vehicles by 2020. Such future cars probably won’t look like this current Leaf. Image courtesy Nissan Motor Co.
guts into the car itself would allow even smaller production, perhaps not much larger than the size of the lenses themselves. Nor, for that matter, do they necessarily have to stay rotating atop the vehicle. As lasers get less expensive, they could be distributed in large sensor banks throughout the car’s exterior, allowing designers more leeway. Of course, the major concern for the now-relieved driver, free to roam within the car, is the interior — an idea that most designers have yet to practically approach. Rinspeed’s recently unveiled XchangE concept shows what might be. It has a steering wheel mounted on a rail so that it can be moved out of the way and seats that swivel and recline fully. Entertainment systems are already set to become vastly more capable and interconnected, and removing the number one distraction — the need to pay attention to the road — sets the stage for cars to become nothing less than relatively small, mobile rooms.
With the introduction of full autonomy, even windows could be optional, allowing them to transform into screens for teleconferences or video games, or be eliminated altogether. Many future-gazers are predicting vastly increased car-sharing, in which case fully customizing your shared car might be as simple as saving preferences on your phone and plugging it in. Cars could also do away with today’s bulky, heavy safety systems. If they don’t crash, they don’t need crash protection, making them lighter and giving them better fuel efficiency. General Motors and Chinese automaker SAIC Motor, for instance, have shown concepts that would be smaller than golf carts but with creature comforts. Self-driving cars are without doubt the next big step in transportation; it is only a question of when and what obstacles will emerge along the way. A glimpse into the future of self-driving vehicles themselves is one thing, but how they impact the
society around them does not bear such clear possibilities. Some experts predict car sharing will become the norm, largely ending the waste of parked cars. Others predict massive suburban sprawl when commutes turn from wasted to useful time. The trucking and taxicab industries are worried about irrelevance, and rightfully so. How can insurance companies possibly adjust? The societal questions remain open and subject to increasingly feverish speculation and business model experimentation. The only thing clear is that the cars described above will likely be a part of it. “By 2050, I’d bet almost every vehicle in the Western world will have autonomous driving capability, and people will use them just like pilots use autopilots today,” says Deutsche Bank’s Lache. “… On a long trip, a majority of the time will be operated autonomously, and it’s only during landing or takeoff — the exceptions — when they’re actually hand-driving the car.” MISSION CRITICAL
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In Gothenburg, Sweden, in 2017, testers will be able to do this in self-driving cars. All photos courtesy Volvo.
Sweden to Embark on Automated Driving Test Starting this year, Sweden’s Volvo Car Group plans to embark on an ambitious program that could see 100 self-driving cars on the busy streets of Gothenburg. Customer research and technology development for what Volvo is calling the Drive Me program begins this year, with actual cars appearing on public roads in 2017. The effort is a joint venture between Volvo, the Swedish Transport 24
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Agency, Lindholmen Science Park and the city of Gothenburg, Sweden’s second largest and home to about one million residents in the metro area. The cars will eventually appear on 50 kilometers of selected roads in and around the city. The move is driven by Volvo’s vision of zero traffic fatalities, says Hakan Samuelsson, president and CEO, and will “give us an insight into the technological challenge at
the same time as we get valuable feedback from real customers driving on public roads.” The cars to be involved in the program will be new ones, including the XC90, which is to be introduced this year. They will be built on what Volvo calls the Scalable Product Architecture, which will allow the company to continuously introduce new support and safety systems, “all the way to technologies that enable highly autonomous drive,” the company says in a press release. The cars will be capable of autonomous driving, but drivers can take control at any time as needed. The cars will also be able to park themselves without the driver being in the car at all, allowing them to get out at a parking garage while the car finds a spot and parks. Part of the technology includes developing a user interface and cloud functionality, according
TESTING, TESTING to the company. In response to questions from Mission Critical, Volvo responded that the cloud functionality will be used to pass information to and from the traffic administration center on areas such as road conditions and accidents that could affect traffic. Part of the early customer research revolves around customer acceptance as well as ways to make it efficient to hand control from driver to car and back. Use of cloud data storage could raise issues of privacy. Volvo said that is included in the research project, but wouldn’t comment on it just yet.
sleep). The car needs to be able to come to a safe stop.”
stands for Safe Road Trains for the Environment.
The three-year demonstration is intended to help Volvo understand the benefits of adding autonomous vehicles into a trafficked environment, and it won’t hurt the bottom line, either.
The idea for that project, which was a joint venture between Volvo and United Kingdom and German researchers, was to show how cars outfitted with automated driving technology could move in
“We will also look into reactions from surrounding traffic,” the company said in an email responding to questions. “The consumer part of the project is very important for us to understand customer needs and how we can develop a technical solution that really is designed around the customer.” Incorporating self-driving vehicles into urban settings will help drive future urban planning, the company says, including by reducing some infrastructure and allowing for more efficient land use. “Self-driving vehicles can also enrich city life in other ways, such as by lowering emissions and thus improving air quality and traffic safety,” the company said in a press release. Volvo also said that the safety features in the upcoming cars will be based on current systems, “but there will be additional development too. “It is too early to go into detail, but one thing we know for sure is we need some kind of safe harbor if the car is not able to take over the [driving] when the possibility for autonomous driving is finished (e.g., due to illness or
Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd, Swedish minister for infrastructure, and Håkan Samuelsson, president and CEO of Volvo Car Group, at the press event for Drive Me in Stockholm, Sweden.
“Sweden has developed unique cooperation between the authorities, the industry and then academic community,” says Catharina Elmsater-Svard, Sweden’s minister for infrastructure, in a statement from Volvo. “This has resulted in a world-leading position in traffic safety. Autonomous vehicles and a smarter infrastructure will bring us another step toward even safer traffic and an improved environment. It will also contribute to new jobs and new opportunities in Sweden.” PRIOR EXPERIENCE Volvo has some prior experience with on-road testing of automated driving technology. It was a partner in the SARTRE effort, which
and out of a “road train” led by a front vehicle that would essentially take over driving duties for a time. Drivers could pull into the train, let the lead vehicle take over while they relaxed, read a book or eat lunch, then take control of their vehicle again and exit the train once their destination was reached. SARTRE demonstrated this on a motorway outside Barcelona in the summer of 2012, when four vehicles — a Volvo truck, an S60, a V60 and an XC60 — drove at 85 kph (53 mph) while maintaining a 6-meter (20-foot) gap between each vehicle.
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The Google car that enabled Steve Mahan to acquire a taco, even though he can’t drive. Photos courtesy Google.
If Automated Vehicles Malfunction, Who’s to Blame? By Gaea Honeycutt
Steve Mahan is chipper as he hops into one of Google’s driverless cars. The conversation between riders and videographers is upbeat, punctuated periodically by Mahan’s clear delight as the vehicle drives local roads, stopping at a fast food restaurant. His hands don’t touch the wheel. There’s a somewhat disturbing external shot through an open driver window of Mahan grubbing down on his taco as the car speeds efficiently down a street — no hands, no napkin, no attention. The big reveal? Mahan is legally blind. 26
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His ride was pre-programmed and a Google representative was in the seat next to him. So, ideally, if anything had gone wrong, there’s someone in the front to take the wheel. But, despite the persuasively cool technological achievement, is the autonomous motor vehicle practical enough to be a truly feasible driving alternative for the future? Or will driverless cars remain one of those quirky curiosities? Just look at the electric car, which took nearly two centuries to gain enough popularity to build a modest following.
PRACTICAL MATTERS The driverless car could be the epitome of the vehicle many drivers will love to hate — the perfect, ultimate defensive driver that follows all the laws to the letter. On the other hand, humans are hopelessly flawed when it comes to operating this machinery. According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the rate of driver responsibility for accidents remained consistent from 1979 to 2008, with approximately nine out of 10 accidents attributable to drivers. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports that highway fatalities increased by 3.3 percent in 2012 and alcohol-related fatalities increased by 4.6 percent the same year. While distracted driving fatalities decreased by just under 1 percent, injuries increased by 9 percent. And, for some reason, people seem more likely to forego the security of a safety belt at night. Brad Ryant Sr., owner of a Nationwide insurance agency in
SPOTLIGHT Washington, D.C., puts automated features into a bottom-line perspective. “It all comes down to whether it makes the car safer,” he says. When Ryant goes to bat for a customer with an underwriter, he’s focused on what reduces risk. The things that reduce risk, such as driver assistance systems, can reduce insurance rates. “If the research shows that the technology saves lives, then it can be a good thing,” he says. According to NHTSA, seatbelts reduce the rate of injury anywhere from 45-65 percent, depending upon severity and vehicle type. Things like cruise control, antilock
prove true, who is liable if the vehicle goes rogue? At the moment, the answer’s not clear. Mahan rode handsfree in the specially orchestrated local California car ride. However, California, Nevada and Florida — states with laws on the books — require one hand on the wheel. The one-hand policy seems to makes it clear where the buck stops: If you drive it, you’re liable. But automakers aren’t quite ready to jump on board completely. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, an association of 12 vehicle manufacturers, is focused on four key considerations as they chime in on state policy debates across the country: How are autonomous vehicles defined? Can the state law
POLICY MATTERS But 20 years from now, or even five years from now, if some predictions
The current cost of a driverless car is also quite steep for a consumer market. “That piece on top of the Google car that links to the satellite is a $30,000-$40,000 expense,” notes Dan Gage, director of public relations and public affairs at the alliance. Research from the alliance paints a picture of a populace that’s not ready to give up control, much less give up the cash, although other studies have indicated people favor technology if it means reduced insurance rates. Yet, without broad testing, the liability discussion is just talk. In December, Volvo announced a partnership with the Swedish government, the city of Gothenburg and a group of researchers for a pilot program that will allow the manufacturer to test a fleet of 100 cars to evaluate the impact of driverless cars on society, requirements for a driverless community, and identify the benefits (for more on that project, see Page 24).
Steven Mahan in the Google car.
brakes, crash avoidance systems and other driver assistance systems are the precursors of autonomous driving. The Highway Loss Data Institute reports that crash avoidance systems such as forward collision avoidance and adaptive headlights have reduced insurance claims by as much as 10-14 percent, depending upon the system and the automaker.
ton, D.C., restricts altering older vehicles to create a driverless car. Several other states are considering bills. Those state laws assume a driver is present and involved in the operation and will be present to supervise.
accommodate federal preemption? Do the laws provide automakers with liability protection for thirdparty alterations or unintended uses? Who’s responsible for traffic infractions? All of these questions point to the fact that there’s no standardization. In Nevada, a driverless car must pass the driving test required of new drivers. Florida and California law says anyone who can legally drive isn’t prohibited from operating a driverless vehicle. Washing-
Until more is known about the capacity, limitations and impacts of autonomous motor vehicles, drivers will have to control their cars and remain alert. And, maybe, they want to do that anyway.
Click on this QR code to see Mahan’s ride in the Google car.
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END USERS
Eyes on the Road Ahead Will Drivers Really Adopt the Autonomy Being Thrown at Them?
If a car can essentially drive itself, what are the odds that you will keep your eyes on the road? The answer lies inside something called the Yerkes-Dodson Law, which suggests that an appropriate amount of demand is necessary to maintain vigilance while performing a task and drivers will seek to fill spare attention with other activities. It is already common knowledge that driving is often a monotonous activity and behaviors like texting while driving have infiltrated the roadways while vehicle operators are using cars with low levels of autonomy, if any at all. Bryan Reimer, research scientist at MIT’s Age Lab and the associate director of the New England University Transportation Center, studies how vehicles can be engineered to optimize driver attention and maximize usability or friendliness of interfaces, and often those two things are not aligned. On top of that, car companies are getting pushed by tech firms to advance their autonomous systems quicker and quicker, but that could come at a high price if the user doesn’t employ them properly. “Unfortunately, we have a tendency to engineer from the technology side and not the human systems side,” he says. Over the past few years, Reimer has studied voice command systems in vehicles that have been promoted as a method of allowing drivers to interact with their cars in a handsfree, eyes-free way. But Reimer has found that these systems don’t hold up to expectations. 28
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“What we discovered is that while the cognitive demands of the system were lower than expectations, there are high visual demands associated with the use of systems,” says Reimer. “In particular what people are doing is speak to the car and then looking to see if the car’s system heard what they said and made the changes they expect.”
gies owners aren’t deriving all the potential benefits.” Another compounding issue with automated vehicles is that as the population becomes more reliant on vehicles that can drive themselves, the average driver will begin to have less experience. And these drivers may not have the skills to maneuver out of situations as well as drivers of today when they need to actually physically drive. “As we look to taking more control and, hence, experience away from the driver, we really need to understand the potential costs,” says Reimer. It’s also possible that the times when drivers will want the most autonomy, such as in bad weather or moments of extreme fatigue, will also be the conditions an autonomous vehicle is the least equipped to handle without oversight.
Reimer says the answer to ensure automated driving efficacy is to have industry and federal policies Reimer said the behaviors are aligned to develop guidelines on even more pronounced in older driv- how to best transition to cars more ers, who will turn to face the system capable of driving themselves over as if they are speaking with a person. the next few decades and beyond. “Here we are, five years later, And these policies will also have to just starting to understand how address the fact that some people people are behaving with these will always want to drive. technologies,” he says. “At some point in the future, we
Brian Reimer.
Findings like this need to be translated to how drivers use other kinds of technologies such as added autonomy in the vehicle fleet.
“The real question of all these advanced driver features is how and where people are using them,” he says. “There is some evidence to suggest that with some technolo-
may not be able to drive new cars, but we will still have to deal with cars on the road that have human drivers for hundreds of years,” Reimer says. “And the automation folks say, why? There is somebody out there with a Model T that’s not going to give up their right any time soon to drive on public roads.”
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Each is an in-depth focus on one particular issue with information on the defense, civil and commercial applications of the technology as well as new developments and what the future may hold.
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