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Galveston: A Fact-base for the Future
http://www.flickr.com/photos/galvestonisland/3290032089/
Texas A&M University Master of Urban Planning Program Applied Planning Studio
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Comprehensive Planning
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Purpose Existing Land Use Map Land use map shows the activity occurring on each parcel of land A land use database and map created to provide City of Galveston baseline data for land use analyses Land use policies can be developed
Demographic Estimates Vital for developing effective plans and policies, guiding decision makers Useful for determining where resources and services should be distributed
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EXISTING LAND USE MAP Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Why Make a Land Use Map? Understand existing conditions and make effective planning decisions Store, analyze and view data that can be used to assess policy choices and future conditions Monitor, record, and interpret changes Identify issues, create visions, formulate goals and compare scenarios Understand land use patterns and risk zones Identify compatibilities and incompatibilities Locate conformity issues
Comprehensive plan implications
Land Use Map Creation  Geographic information system (GIS) technology used to create current land use map. - Baseline data 2009 Galveston County Appraisal District data - Additional layers of data overlaid for comparison - Cemeteries, churches, etc.
- Aerial image used to identify parcels which had limited information - Additional sources used to identify unknown parcels – Google Maps, Earth, and Street View. - Quality control through spot-checks
Land Use Map Creation
Land Use Classification Single-Family Residential
Single-family detached
Multi-Family Residential
Three/fourplex Apartment/condo
Residential Other
Commercial
Heavy Industrial
Light Industrial
Mobile Retirement Group quarters
Retail and general merchandise Apparel and accessories Furniture and home furnishings Grocery and food sales Eating and drinking Heavy manufacturing Port activities Refining activities Light manufacturing Warehousing Equipment sales and service Recycling
Auto related Entertainment Personal services Lodgings Building services
Land Use Classification School
Elementary schools Middle schools High schools Colleges and universities
Cemetery
Transportation
Government
Hospital Religious
Vacant
Public buildings Fire/police stations Libraries
Airport Railway Roads
Open Space
Conservation Pasture
Agricultural
Farming Ranching
Hospital Churches or other religious buildings
Recreation/Parks Undeveloped land
Cemetery
Playground Dog park Public park
Land Use Analyses • Identify areas of compatible and incompatible land uses • Incompatible • Heavy industrial adjacent to residential • Heavy industrial adjacent to schools
• Compatible • Residential adjacent to schools, parks, and commercial areas
• Hazards Vulnerability Analysis • Identify uses located in sensitive areas
• Measures of accessibility • Ex: Residential uses near parks and recreational areas or number of residential parcels within a certain distance of a transit stop.
Recommendations The land use map: Serves as a foundation for on-going monitoring and evaluation Needs regular updating by using building permit data or spot checks Allows planners to observe and analyze the growth trends exhibited by map Supports the development of land use policies based on observed growth trends and objectives set forth in the comprehensive plan
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POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC ESTIMATES Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Goal To provide an estimate of Galveston‘s population size and distribution since Hurricane Ike
Source: http://www.scu.edu/provost/diversity/faculty_staff/
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Demographic Estimates Primary Data Sources
TAMU Hazard Reduction & Recovery Damage Assessment, December 2008 and January 2010 (NSF funded) TAMU Multi-Family Housing Assessment, January-April 2010 Secondary Data Sources
Galveston County Appraisal District (CAD): Parcel Data, September 2009 Galveston Independent School District (GISD) PEIMS data US Postal Service Data on Housing, thru December 2009 US Census American Community Survey Estimates, 20062008 Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Population: Creating the Estimate A formula for creating a population count: Housing Units (HU) – separate living quarters, such as a house, apartment, mobile home Occupancy Rates (Occ) – percent of occupied housing units Household Size or Persons Per Household (PPH) – number of persons per housing unit
Total Population = (HU x Occ x PPH) Recognizing differences between the Urban Core and West End Understanding how single-family and multi-family Occupancy Rates and Household Size varies Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Population Estimates: Overview Housing Units HU
Number of Single-Family Housing Units
Number of Multi-Family Housing Units
West End
Urban Core
HU
HU
Occupancy Rate Occ
x Occ
x Occ
x Occ
Persons Per Household - PPH
x PPH
x PPH
x PPH
Single-Family Population
Multi-Family Population
Estimate of Current Population in Galveston
Understanding Galveston’s Geography
West End In 2000, contained less than 10% of population 6,551 (18%) of the island’s housing units Occupancy Rate = 47%
Persons Per Household (PPH) = 2.22
Urban Core Considerably more multi-family housing
25,375 housing units Occupancy Rate = 85% PPH = 2.34
SINGLE-FAMILY POPULATION ASSESSMENT Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Single-Family Assessment Housing Units The most recent count of housing units provided by the U.S. Postal Service, 4Q 2009 (around December, 2009)
USPS 4Q 2009 0
25,375 n/a
27,858
Average of USPS 1990 Census, 2000 ACS, 2006Census, 27,752 2008 Quarters, since Ike
4,412
5,473 n/a
4,041 USPS, 4Q 3,937 2009
Citywide 31,689
27,270
West End 33,439
ACS 2006-2008 10,000
30,848
Census 20,000 2000
32,510
Census 30,000 1990
Urban Core
31,899
40,000 Data Sources
32,510
30,848 33,439
31,899 USPS, post-Ike 31,689 average
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Single-Family Assessment Occupancy Rates Most recent occupancy rate from the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center (HRRC) Damage Assessment, January 2010 Data 100%Sources 75% 1990 Census
76% 50% Census 2000 25% ACS0% 2006-2008
Urban Core
76%
82% 85% 68%
n/a
HRRC, 12/2008 Census, 1990 Census, 2000 49% ACS, 2006HRRC, 01/2010 71% 2008
West End
Citywide
44% 47% 46% n/a 38% HRRC, 12/2008 58%
76% 67%
76%
68% HRRC, 46% 01/2010 67%
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Single-Family Assessment Persons Per Household (PPH) Most recent PPH from the Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center (HRRC) Household Survey, January 2010 2.60 Data Sources
Urban Core
2.40 Census 1990 2.20 Census 20002.32
ACS 2006-2008 2.00 Census, 1990 HRRC, 12/2008
HRRC, 01/2010
West End 2.53
2.38 2.28
2.34
Citywide
2.25
2.21
n/a Census, 2000 2.57 ACS, 20062008 2.37
2.22
2.32 2.33
2.28
n/a 2.21 HRRC, 2.41 12/2008 HRRC, 01/2010 2.53 2.16
2.33
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
MULTI-FAMILY POPULATION ASSESSMENT Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Multi-Family Assessment Data: Listed and mapped properties with Multi-Family Housing Units of Galveston based upon property records Method: Physically visited and surveyed 292 properties, followed-up by phone Result: Count of currently existing Housing Units and their Occupancy Rates from January to April 2010
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Multi-Family Assessment Results of the Survey Data Collected for... 7,421 units including their Occupancy Rate 1,045 units with an unknown Occupancy Rate, and 1,030 units in institutional housing, including Texas A&M Galveston dorms UTMB housing, and Galveston College
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Texas Planning A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Multi-Family Assessment Calculate Average Occupancy Rates Housing Unit Categories
Units with known Occupancy
Occupied Units
Average Occupancy Rate
3 or 4
143
104
73%
5-9
310
182
59%
10 - 19
363
203
56%
6,579
4,900
74%
20 or more
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Population Estimate
Population Estimate HU – 4Q, 2009 USPS count
20,559 Single-Family Housing Units West End
Urban Core
5,526
15,033
Occ – 2010 HRRC survey
58.0%
70.6%
PPH – 2010 HRRC survey
2.16
2.37
Single-Family Estimated Population:
32,059 Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Population Estimate *HU - 2006-08 ACS estimate
Occ – 2010 TAMU Survey PPH - 2006-08 ACS Estimate
11,962 Multi-Family Housing Units 3 or 4
5 to 9
10 to 19
20+
1,779
2,062
4,230
3,892
72.7%
58.7%
55.9%
74.5%
2.10 Multi-Family Estimated Population: 16,314 Single-Family Estimated Population: 32,059
Population Estimate *HU - 2006-08 ACS estimate
Occ – 2010 TAMU Survey PPH - 2006-08 ACS Estimate
11,962 Multi-Family Housing Units 3 or 4
5 to 9
10 to 19
20+
1,779
2,062
4,230
3,892
72.7%
58.7%
55.9%
74.5%
2.10 Multi-Family Estimated Population: 16,314 Total Population Estimate:
48,373
Single-Family Estimated Population: 32,059
Population Estimate 70,000 60,000 50,000
58,700
57,714
52,821
40,000
48,373
30,000 20,000 10,000 0
Census, 1990
Census, 2000
ACS 2006-2008 Estimate
TAMU Estimate
Population Characteristics
Purpose To understand the distribution and composition of Galveston’s population, and how it may have been affected by Ike
Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Population Characteristics: Estimates & Analysis Data: Records acquired for students enrolled in GISD schools in February 2010, which contain: Locations Race/ethnicity Economic status
Method: Trends for race/ethnicity and economic status calculated for enrolled students in the district, shown at the neighborhood scale Results: A comparison of demographics between the 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10 academic enrollment in the Island’s neighborhoods Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
GISD Total Student Enrollment 10,000
7,500
7,903
5,000
5,591
6,358
2,500
0
2007-08 School Year
2008-09
2009-10 Change
2007-08 to 2008-09
29% decrease
2008-09 to 2009-10
14% increase
Overall Change (since 2007-2008)
20% decrease
Total GISD Enrollment Demographics Pre-Ike
Current Enrollment
3% 24%
5%
25%
30%
24%
43%
46%
Pre-Ike
2,393
3,422
1,894
194
Current
1,557
2,893
1,568
340
Change
-35%
-15%
-17%
75%
Source: GISD PEIMS Enrollment data
Distribution of Enrolled Students
* Unable to map around 10% of the enrollment
Distribution of Enrolled Students Bolivar
Galveston 5%
9% 1% 25% 39%
4% 46%
51% 25%
Location
Bolivar
Mainland
35% 42% 19%
Number of Students Students that Qualify for Free Enrolled (Percent) or Reduced Lunch (Percent) 896 (15%)
748 (17%)
Galveston
4,670 (80%)
3,569 (79%)
Mainland
283 (5%)
174 (4%)
5,849*
4,491
Total
* Unable to map around 10% of the enrollment
Students Qualifying for Free or Reduced Lunch
Percent Hispanic, 2009-2010 School2000 Enrollment Census
Percent Hispanic, 2009-2010 School Enrollment
Percent African-American, 2009-2010 School2000 Enrollment Census
Percent African-American, 2009-2010 School Enrollment
Percent White, 2009-2010 School2000 Enrollment Census
Percent White, 2009-2010 School Enrollment
Population and Demographics: Findings, Implications, Opportunities
Findings Most recent population estimate is 48,373, or 8% less than the pre-Ike Census estimate Disproportionate loss of African American households, likely due to a loss of public housing No major change in the spatial distribution of the population
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Implications and Opportunities Implications Potentially Lose U.S. Census Urbanized area (UA) designation Used by other Federal agencies Loss of detailed information Concentration of socially vulnerable households in higher risk areas Displaced households, particularly African American, may be located on the mainland
Opportunities Very close to 50,000 population threshold, with people returning regularly Nearly 20% of students reside off island Households that could potentially return to Galveston Texas A&M Master of Urban Planning Applied Planning
Participation Rate
In 2010, (so far)
In 2000
Nationwide
71%
72%
Texas
67%
68%
Galveston, County
64%
63%
Galveston, City
52%
56%
2000 Census Participation, 2010 Percent of Homes that Mailed Survey back (excluding those returned as undeliverable)
Sources: 2010.census.gov/2010census/take10map/, www.censushardtocountmaps.org
Participation Rate
In 2010, (so far)
In 2000
Nationwide
71%
72%
Texas
67%
68%
Galveston, County
64%
63%
Galveston, City
52%
56%
Census Participation, 2010 Percent of Homes that Mailed Survey back (excluding those returned as undeliverable)
Sources: 2010.census.gov/2010census/take10map/, www.censushardtocountmaps.org
Acknowledgements City of Galveston - Wendy O’Donohoe, Lori Feild Schwarz, Catherine Tinnemeyer, Berry Smith, Athena Petty GISD PEIMS Coordinator – Patti Youngblood UTMB - Bruno Cristelli, Mike Cromie, John Prochaska TAMU Galveston - Todd Sutherland Galveston Historical Foundation – Denise Alexander Galveston County Appraisal District All Property Owners and Managers that participated our Survey of Multi-Family Properties
Acknowledgements Texas A&M University Applied Planning Students Demographics Team
Land Use Team
Design Team
Anita Hollmann Dustin Henry Courtney Payne
Wenhao Li Uttara Nilawar Matt Sandidge Travis Scott Avinash Shrivastava Yi Zhang
Nick Creevy Aatmaja Desai Meng Xue Yin Yun
Josh Shane Martin Siwek Susan White Sonja Willems
Texas A&M University Faculty Dr. Shannon Van Zandt & Dr. Walter Gillis Peacock Resources Texas A&M Hazard Reduction & Recovery Center - http://hrrc.tamu.edu/ Texas Coastal Atlas - http://coastalatlas.tamug.edu/atlas.htm/