March 27 - April 2, 2013
2 | NEWS | financialmirror.com
Anastasiades: Bailout to benefit Cyprus, stronger bank President Nicos Anastasiades was confident that the agreement reached with international lenders was the best possible deal and that it was sustainable, despite efforts to curb the island’s banking sector, a thorn in the side of German politicians. “We have an agreement to the benefit of the people of Cyprus and the EU,” Anastasiades said in a brief statement in Brussels after overnight negotiations with the IMF and EU officials that resulted in approval of a 10 bln euro bailout by the Eurogroup of 17 eurozone finance ministers. The plan will see the second largest lender, Popular Laiki Bank, shutting down and its “good bank” assets and insured
deposits below 100,000 euros transferred to Bank of Cyprus, that will also undertake a debt of 9 bln euros in liquidity assistance provided to Laiki in recent months. The Bank of Cyprus must raise own funds from shareholders for its recapitalisation who will receive equity for a haircut on deposits over 100,000 euros. “The country avoided default and has secured the future of the next generations,” said Finance Minister Michalis Sarris, adding that “we have closed a long period of insecurity for the Cyprus economy.” “We have not only won the battle, but we have also avoided any exit from the Eurozone. Our aim now is macroeconomic stability through a restructured banking sector, fiscal discipline
and reform. We will undergo sacrifices but our economy has the ability to restart.” Anastasiades added in a televised address on Monday evening that he will appoint a public inquiry to investigate the whole crisis and those who caused it, while on an optimistic note he said that after the takeover of Laiki by Bank of Cyprus, the new entity will be stronger. His comments were echoed by Central Bank governor Panicos Demetriades who said that, “after this, Bank of Cyprus will have access from the eurosystem, not ELA but normal financing. The merger with Popular will give us a very strong bank.”
Capital controls to be “loose” but island-wide
Administrator to run B0C, resignations rejected
Swiss regulator doesn’t plan to curb Cyprus fund flows
Capital controls imposed to avert a bank run will be “loose” but will apply to all banks on the island, Central Bank Governor Panicos Demetriades said on Tuesday. “We aim for some restrictions which, in the words of the president, will be loose,” the centralbanker said, adding that the measure would apply to all banks. Demetriades said the restrictions would be “temporary” but would not say how long they would last. He said authorities were doing “all they could” to ensure banks reopen on Thursday after being closed for more than a week.
The Central Bank of Cyprus has appointed a special administrator to run Bank of Cyprus which was saved from collapse by a painful bailout for the island agreed with international lenders on Sunday. Dinos Christofides, an accountant and banker with close to 40 years experience, told Reuters he had been appointed on Monday night, saying he would oversee “the restructuring of the bank and the absorption of part of Cyprus Popular Bank”. Meanwhile, the resignation of Chairman Andreas Artemis was rejected by the rest of the board on Tuesday, as were the resignations of board members Vassilis Rologis, Costas Severis, Anna Diogenous and Takis Arapoglou.
Switzerland’s financial regulator has no plans to impose curbs on possible inflows of money from Cyprus, which is leaking euros even as its banks remain closed. “Currently, we don’t see any special requirements regarding Cyprus or any other country beyond the general rules governing what money Swiss banks are allowed to accept,” said Patrick Raaflaub, head of Swiss financial regulator FINMA. While Cyprus negotiated its EU bailout, large amounts of euros allegedly fled in the form of notes from cash machines and exceptional transfers for “humanitarian supplies”, medicines and fuel, news reports claimed.
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Europe has been condemned to economic disintegration as a result of top policy makers’ “bullying” of Cyprus and “cavalier attitude” towards the expropriation of property, the island’s former central bank governor who oversaw its entry to the euro has warned. “The European project is crashing to earth,” Athanasios Orphanides told the Financial Times in an interview. “This is a fundamental change in the dynamics of Europe towards disintegration and I don’t see how this can be reversed.” His outspoken comments highlighted widespread alarm at eurozone leaders’ handling of the Cyprus crisis – including by the European Central Bank and European Commission. “I would have expected them to support the European project. I would have expected them to protect the citizens of the smallest and weakest member states against discrimination. We have seen a cavalier attitude towards the expropriation of property and the bullying of a people.” This past week’s events had made “a mockery” of EU treaties, he added. “It suggests that in Europe not all people are equal under the law.” Mr Orphanides was governor of Cyprus’s central bank from
2008 until last year, when he was replaced after clashing with the island’s then communist government. As member of the ECB’s governing council, Mr Ophanides’s views were respected because of his background as a senior economist at the US Federal Reserve. He has since returned to academic economics in the US. Mr Orphanides complained: “We have seen other eurozone countries, the Netherlands, for instance, put national interests ahead of the European interest by trying to bring down the economic model of countries such as Cyprus or Luxembourg.” He also called into question the credibility of the ECB’s threat to pull the plug on the Cypriot banking system. On Thursday, the ECB had warned that if an EU-IMF rescue programme was not agreed by Monday, it would ban the use of “emergency liquidity assistance” to html” \o “Q&A: The ECB and Cyprus’s banks - FT.com” \t “_blank” . According to Mr Orphanides, about €10bn of ELA is being provided via Europe’s Target2 payments system used by its central banks. “If you say it is no longer authorised, it would force the Central Bank of Cyprus to default on its Target2 obligations. Cyprus would then have to leave the euro area.” He went on: “The ECB will have forced Cyprus out. This is the one thing Mario Draghi doesn’t want to happen – he does not want to be the ECB president who triggers the break-up of the euro. It is painful to watch.”
Be cool, look after one another, be prepared The old beast’s weapon is fear These past days I have come to realise why the mystics put themselves under extreme physical and emotional stress. It is because they start to make patterns, see things, hear things that make sense in some way that is light years beyond our rational understanding but which speak straight to the core of our very human being. Mystics use starvation, lack of sleep and aloneness. A metaphorical version of the same thing in the modern world is what is happening to us here in Cyprus: starved of cash, lack of sleep, and aloneness from Europe. You will think I have finally gone mad; maybe I have. But here is what, after ten or more days of no sleep, little food and aloneness from Europe, I see. A very profound shift is taking place in Europe. It is said that the island of Cyprus came into being from the collision of continental plates.
The vision of Aphrodite rising from the blue waves is the mystic’s understanding of this. Those plates are now cracking form east to west, from north to south. And the roar that comes from their gape is heard across the globe. The old beast had bared its teeth. And its weapon is fear. Do not be afraid. Stay cool. Stay calm. Look after one another. Be prepared. Fiona Mullen
March 27 - April 2, 2013
financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3
Ten-point plan for euro exit (and Mrs Merkel keeping the currency all to herself) If we fall out of the euro, the Argentina crisis suggests that the new currency will fall by 75%. That means that our personal and state debts will quadruple overnight, the value of our savings will fall to a quarter of what they were, and the price of imports will rocket. It is still the worst of all scenarios. Cyprus depends for over 90% of its electricity on imported fuel oil. We don’t want another summer with electricity cuts. And they would be longer this time. But if the European Central Bank (ECB) and our “friends” in the Union have already decided to kick us out (see other article), we have to throw all rules out of the window and concentrate on survival. Here is my ten-point plan. It will annoy a Hell of a lot of people so I hope it never comes to this. 1. Since the ECB will have hung us out to try, tell the ECB we will pay the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) money back at our own pace and on our own terms. 2. They won’t like it. It will be the first “Official Sector
Involvement (OSI) in the eurozone. They will sue big time. So step 2 is to hire some big shot US lawyers. It is important that they come from the US. They have no political skin in the game
By Fiona Mullen Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd
and they can meet the beast with the Rottweiler. 3. Hire the Icelandic tweeter who knows how this went down in Iceland and has lots of practical advice. 4. Hold a bondholder meeting for a private-sector debt restructuring deal that involves the assets of the banks, the sov-
ereign debt and some clever US/UK private-sector brains. 5. Very important: keep the Europeans and the IMF out of its. If this scenario unfolds they are history (in more ways than one). These are private-sector solutions. No politicians or officials required. 6. Call on Cypriots to exercise restraint with cash withdrawals, buying up food stocks. We will have a much smaller pie to share so we cannot be greedy. 7. Return to the old Cyprus pound (CYP) model: capital controls for locals (residents); capital liberalisation under an offshore model for the rest. 8. Hire the bright young Cypriots, of whom there are plenty, to map out the new growth model that does not depend on money whizzing in and out of Cyprus. 9. Introduce incentives for Israelis to invest in venture capital, high-tech and solar power. 10. Real solar power production in every home. The current system gives no reason to take part.
Capital controls: gushing tap or drip, drip? By Fiona Mullen Director of Sapienta Economics As I write this I do not know when the banks will open again. And from the rapidly changing policies of the past 48 hours it is clear that there is a big debate going on about capital controls and how to handle them. Here I shall examine the arguments for and against. I must attribute many of these points to the twitter-brainstorming economists, mainly academics, who I trust (I do still trust) will come out as the clear heroes of this crisis, as well as other academics at the University of Cyprus. There are many twitter superheroes of the Cyprus crisis. But for crisis management brainstorming, the first three names that come to mind are Alex Apostolides of European University Cyprus (@alexapostolides), Faisal Islam, Economic editor of Channel 4 news (@faisalislam) and Hugo Dixon, “editor at large” of Reuters (@hugodixon). And just in case you think that Cyprus has lost all its friends, if you have a Twitter account, go to #Cyprusheroes. There are many of out there them and my drumbeat of thanks has a long way to go.
showing differences in development will have to sustain for the establishment of the internal market and it may propose appropriate provisions. If these provisions take the form of derogations, they must be of a temporary nature and must cause the least possible disturbance to the functioning of the internal market.” This is EU-speak for imposing capital controls. The key phrases here are: “may propose appropriate
What do we do next?
The argument of principle
The argument in favour of opening some or all of the banks as soon as possible and allowing full free capital has two elements, one of principle and one of psychology. The one of principle is that capital controls breach of the European Union treaties. Article 26(2) of the Treaty on European Union states: “The internal market shall comprise an area without internal frontiers in which the free movement of goods, persons, services and capital is ensured in accordance with the provisions of the Treaties.” So imposing capital controls is a breach of this article. But then there is Article 27, which reads as follows. “When drawing up its proposals with a view to achieving the objectives set out in Article 26, the Commission shall take into account the extent of the effort that certain economies
capital, and you are sending a signal that all is still not well in the financial system. If we had endless Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the European Central Bank (ECB) then that might be the sensible thing to do. But it is not completely clear that we do. Here’s why. The Eurogroup statement on Monday said this: “The Governing Council of the ECB will provide liquidity to the BoC in line with applicable rules.” As Apostolides noted, if “in line with applicable rules” means that the rules on acceptable collateral remain strictly the same as before, then we do not have any more eligible capital left and effectively the ECB has switched off the taps. The only cash left in Cyprus is what is still in the banks and under the mattress. The ECB has been accused of playing politics this week. I suspect that, along with the March 25th deadline for switching off the taps issued last week, the historians will use the “applicable rules” statement as evidence of the same. Even while I write this, there is disagreement from the experts on twitter about whether or not the ECB will provide unlimited assistance or not. As long as the ECB remains equivocal about it, we have to move on the assumption that they will not provide more and therefore we have to impose capital controls.
provisions”, “temporary” and “least possible disturbance”. So they are allowed, but only for short periods and in extreme circumstances. We are already in extreme circumstances, so we have already passed that test. And with the banks closed, we have already imposed de facto capital controls so we have already breached Article 26.
The matter of psychology
Now let’s deal with the matter of psychology. The argument in favour of opening the banks and allowing full free movement of capital is that confidence has already been dealt a blow by the closure of the banks. Open them again, but with strict conditions on the export of
The next step is how to control the inevitable outflow. Given the chance, all of the old “offshore” money will go in 24 hours and we will only be left with the “domestic” currency in circulation. This could cripple the banks. So assuming that there is no unlimited ELA, we have only one choice: let the offshore leave, but let it leave “siga siga”, a little at a time, so that we do not have an immediate cash crunch. There are many ideas for how to do this, which I won’t go into here. I just live in hope that the idea from Alex survives. It is an honourable way to do it, and would send the right message to the people of Europe about how welcoming the Cypriots really are. @FionaMullenCY
March 27 - April 2, 2013
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Cyprus shows trust in ECB is misplaced Ever since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said last July that the bank will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, complacency has pervaded Europe’s single-currency area. Markets have weathered potential crises in Italy and Spain with surprising calm, secure in the knowledge that the ECB will save the day if needed. This was always a false assumption, as events in Cyprus have made clear. There are significant limitations to the support the ECB is willing or able to offer, even to such a tiny island economy whose needs are easily affordable. The ECB relies on two primary mechanisms to help euro-area countries in crisis. The first, emergency liquidity assistance, allows a country’s banks to access cheap funding from their national central bank, even when all they have left is low- quality collateral that doesn’t meet the criteria for the ECB’s standard liquidity operations. This emergency facility has helped a number of countries make it through liquidity squeezes over the past few years, keeping banks in Belgium, Greece and Ireland on life support since the beginning of the crisis in 2008. The ECB has kept Cypriot banks alive in this way, too, providing about 9 bln euros of financing to date. The ECB threatened to cut Cyprus off, however, if a bailout deal wasn’t agreed on with the so-called troika of international creditors — the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission — by March 26.
CAPITAL CONTROLS
In response to the ECB’s threat, the Cypriot parliament passed a bill on March 22, allowing for capital controls. Emergency ECB funding would have plugged the gap in bank balance sheets created by deposit flight. Without this funding, deposit flight would have to be stemmed by force of law to prevent the island’s banks and economy from imploding. This is a serious line for a euro-area country to cross: Capital controls are legal under extraordinary cir-
cumstances, but they go against the notion of freedom of goods, labour and capital that is the principle tenet of the European currency union. The second mechanism the ECB can use to support euro-area countries is outright monetary transactions, the bond-buying program that it detailed in September. This facility has yet to be used, but its mere existence has caused borrowing costs for peripheral euro-area countries to fall significantly. Consequently, these coun-
By Megan Greene tries have already managed to sell 28 bln euros of bonds in 2013, roughly double the figure for the same period in 2012. Despite this renewed confidence in euro-area government debt, recent events in Cyprus have highlighted the bond-buying program’s limitations — it can alleviate stress in the sovereignbond markets, but that’s about it. Even if Cyprus met all the conditions to use the facility, that wouldn’t help the country avoid a banking and economic collapse. Investors should have seen the limitations of the ECB’s intervention tools before the Cyprus bailout disaster. Sovereign borrowing costs have fallen, but as far as the real economy is concerned, most indicators released from a euro-area country in the past six months have been worse than the last. This goes not just for the weak countries but also for core countries, such as Germany. The outright-monetary-transactions program was meant to support the real economies of peripheral countries by allowing borrowing costs for businesses across the euro area to converge. The opposite has happened. In January, borrowing
costs for small- and medium-sized enterprises in Spain and Italy — where such companies form the backbone of the economy — rose to 6% and 5.8%, respectively. At the same time, the cost of borrowing for German small- and medium-sized companies fell, to 3.5%.
POLITICAL RISK
Even if the ECB’s two special rescue mechanisms succeed in improving and stabilizing the financial and economic environment of a euro country in crisis, these tools are powerless to address political risk in the euro area. That’s a significant weakness, because political risk has repeatedly come to the forefront of this crisis, as elected politicians seek to protect their own country’s interests in negotiations over who will end up paying for the imbalances that have developed in a fundamentally flawed monetary union. Whatever happens in Cyprus is unlikely to ring the death knell for the common currency. A chaotic default and exit from the euro area by such a tiny economy would be disruptive, but the rest of the currency union would probably weather it. The Cyprus debacle has revealed, however, that the ECB isn’t a cureall, and that investors’ trust in the willingness and ability of the central bank to “do whatever it takes” may be a big mistake. If the ECB’s toolkit can’t save a country that accounts for 0.2% of the euro area’s gross domestic product, then how will it provide meaningful support when financial or fiscal difficulties emerge in larger countries such as Spain and Italy? This question should be keeping investors up at night, because it’s a given that such difficulties will arise — the only question is when.
Megan Greene is a Bloomberg View columnist and chief economist at Maverick Intelligence. She is also a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Cyprus rescue raises new questions about euro’s long-term survival l
Bailout sets unsettling precedents for bonds, deposits with risk of widening north-south divide over austerity vs solidarity
The messy deal to bail out Cyprus has averted the latest threat to the break-up of the euro but at the cost of raising new questions about the single currency’s long-term viability. Savers in other euro zone banks appear so far to be taking the freezing of balances over 100,000 euros in Cyprus’s two biggest lenders in their stride. Perhaps they judge that events in a tiny, far-away island with outsize banks and a reliance on deposits from Russian oligarchs hold little relevance for them. Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds held broadly on Monday, reflecting a belief that the European Central Bank’s promise to buy struggling euro members’ bonds if need be - a programme known as Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) - will prevent a spillover from Cyprus. “This certainly plays into the hands of northern European creditor countries, who have long taken the view that fears of contagion, in particular post-OMT, are wildly exaggerated,” said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy in London. “For the time being there is no contagion: the markets, rightly or wrongly, still believe in the credibility and effectiveness of this bond-buying scheme.” Although big outflows from Italian or Spanish banks were unlikely, Spiro said the troika of the IMF, the European Commission and the ECB had set a dangerous precedent by initially agreeing to tax Cypriot deposits below the European Union’s 100,000 euro guarantee threshold. European central bankers in private, and German banks in public, expressed confidence that the repercussions of Cyprus’s bailout would be contained. “The banking sector in the country was too large and did not have a sustainable business model. Cyprus should thus be regarded as a one-off case, and is therefore not comparable with other European countries,” said Andreas Schmitz, president of the BdB association of German lenders. But Lena Komileva, who runs the consultancy G+ Economics in London, said the terms of Monday’s early-morning agreement in Brussels sent an unfortunate signal: a euro in a bank in Cyprus is not equal to a euro elsewhere in the euro zone. “This is... a systemically important deal for the future of the euro zone banking union, or rather the lack of it, which carries implications for Spain in 2014,” Komileva said.
BOND BUYERS BEWARE
The bailout is also evidence of an increasingly hard line being taken with bond holders in failed euro zone banks. Weeks after the Irish government agreed to repay guaranteed debt in Anglo Irish Bank when it was liquidated, senior bondholders in Popular Bank of Cyprus, also known as Laiki, will be wiped out, while those in Bank of Cyprus will have to make a contribution, officials said. How big depositors and bond investors in other vulnerable euro zone banks would react post-Cyprus in the
and thus deepening the recession in southern Europe. Speaking in Lisbon last week before the Cyprus deal was struck, Portuguese economists and brokers expressed dismay that euro zone policymakers were gambling with depositor confidence - even if Cyprus’s circumstances were special. “The European Union should be aware of the risks that peripheral countries are facing. Those responsible for decisions like this one on Cyprus should think deeply about the probable consequences,” said Paula Carvalho, chief economist at BPI bank.
GROWTH, AUSTERITY AND SOLIDARITY
By Alan Wheatley Global Economics Correspondent, Reuters event of a new shock thus becomes the latest ‘known unknown’ in the four-year-old euro zone debt drama. The crisis in Greece fanned fears of contagion to the likes of Italy and Spain, touching off a deposit flight to safe-haven banks in Germany and other hard-money northern European states. The result has been a fragmentation of the money and banking markets across the euro zone that the Cyprus bailout can only prolong and possibly intensify. For example, despite the soothing effect of the ECB’s bondbuying pledge, the interest rate in January on new one-year business loans under 1 mln euros was 2.8% in Germany but 6.7% in Portugal. The ECB’s declared priority is to repair the monetary policy transmission mechanism so that its easy-credit stance is diffused to all 17 members of the euro, not just a few. The policy has been working insofar as cash imbalances between the north and the south of the single currency zone have gradually fallen since ECB President Mario Draghi promised last summer to do whatever it takes to save the euro - a pledge that spawned the OMT programme. The danger now is that this process will stall because of the spillover from Cyprus, keeping bank lending interest rates high
Joao de Deus, a senior sales trader with brokers Dif in Lisbon, said there was no guarantee that the crisis in Cyprus would be the last flare-up. For some observers, the Cypriot solution feeds the perception across the periphery that the German-led ‘Northern Alliance’ is determined to keep pressing for discipline and austerity in southern Europe, even at the risk of perpetuating a vicious cycle of recession, missed fiscal targets and more growth-sapping budget cuts. The real contagion risk, therefore, is that the meltdown in Cyprus, which is heading for a deep economic slump because of the destruction of its offshore banking industry, will fan a revolt against the hair-shirt policies demanded by the troika as the price of providing a safety net for euro zone strugglers. With the exception of Greece, protests in southern Europe against high unemployment and pension cuts have so far been peaceful. But resentment at what many see as a lack of solidarity from Germany is growing. As such, Alastair Winter, chief economist at Daniel Stewart, an investment bank in London, said Cyprus might eventually come to be seen as the second big step in the break-up of the euro, the culmination of five decades of ever-closer integration meant to banish the spectre of another war on European soil. The first step, he argued, was the rejection by a majority of Italian voters in last month’s general election of the orthodox prescription of austerity. “They had duly noted that the peoples of Europe, even if they no longer want to kill each other, are unwilling to help each other out in times of distress,” Winter told clients.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
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Crisis could undermine relations with key partners and allies l Russia and Israel may scale back their involvement in the aftermath of the crisis Rarely has a country had a more bruising week than Cyprus. As one commentator, Pawel Morski, memorably put it, ‘No human agency has achieved so much economic destruction in such a short time without the use of weapons.’ However, it was not just the direct financial fallout from the crisis that has shocked Cypriots; it is the way in which the events of the past week have forced them to re-evaluate their understanding of their place in Europe and the world. Much of what they thought they knew about their friends and allies has been fundamentally challenged. Perhaps the biggest shock for ordinary Cypriots has been the way in which the EU – or, perhaps more accurately, the 17-member eurozone – has behaved. Although never perhaps the most enthusiastic supporters of the European Union, polls taken this past week show that their trust in the EU has been shattered. In particular, many in Cyprus were shocked and appalled by what they saw as German intransigence, if not vindictiveness, concerning their financial services sector. No matter what evidence they presented, it seemed as though Berlin was fixed on the idea that Cyprus was a haven for Russian mobsters and was determined either to make them pay to fix the problem, or force the Cypriots to do so. This was unfair. Yes, there was dirty money on the island. However, it was not as much as was being claimed and, as Cypriots were quick to point out, there is a lot elsewhere in the EU. At the same time, a lot of Russian money in the banks also came from legitimate sources. More to the point, it did not seem to matter that the proposals to tax deposits would also do a lot of damage to the many legitimate businesses from other countries, as well as the many EU citizens living on the island. At the same time as being angry about Germany’s behaviour, Greek Cypriots feel very let down by many of the other members of the Eurozone. In some cases, such as Finland, they lined up squarely behind Berlin. Meanwhile, others did not come to their defence or support. It is telling just how many Cypriots seem to feel that Greece should have done more to try to help them, especially as it was the overexposure of Cyprus’s banks to Greece that was at the very heart of the crisis the island faced. To be fair, given the problems Greece faces, there was not a lot that Athens could have done. One of the few countries that did voice support was Luxembourg. Undoubtedly concerned about attention being paid to the relative size of the banking sector to the overall economy in Cyprus, a proportion that is much larger in Luxembourg, Jean Asselborrn, the foreign minister, warned Germany to take a more careful line towards smaller EU members.
ILL-INFORMED ON RUSSIA
Another key actor in this whole affair has been Russia. A lot has been written about the relationship between Nicosia and Moscow. Much of it has been appallingly one sided, if not wholly ill-informed. Yes, it is true that the two countries have traditionally enjoyed warm relations. This is not only based on the Orthodox ties, it is also shaped by the way in which the Greek Cypriots have long seen Russia as a useful counterbalance to what they perceive to be innate US and British favouritism towards Turkey on the Cyprus Problem. This has served the
By James Ker-Lindsay
island well over the years. However, it is easy to make too much of the relationship. It is especially worth remembering that there is also a strong groundswell of support for closer ties to NATO. Nicos Anastasiades, the new president, has spoken about his hope of steering Cyprus into Partnership for Peace (PfP) and, eventually, full membership of the organisation. Meanwhile, wilder predictions that Moscow was preparing to ‘buy out’ Cyprus in order to infiltrate the EU were spectacularly torpedoed when the Russian Government announced that it had no interest in taking over an ailing Cyprus bank, or betting on the island’s as yet unproven energy reserves off its southern coast. Moreover, any support it would give would have to be done in conjunction with the EU. Another significant development that took place last week, but one that probably went largely unnoticed in Cyprus, was Israel’s decision to apologise to Turkey over its May 2010 raid on the Mavi Marmara, a ship that was on its way to deliver aid to Gaza, which left nine Turkish citizens dead. The incident caused outrage in Turkey and led to the freezing of what had once been extremely cordial relations. In the meantime, Israel and Cyprus had been busy building up relations, leading many to argue that a new security axis was emerging in the Eastern Mediterranean around the discovery of deposits of natural gas off the southern coast of Cyprus. That idea also looks to be in tatters now. From initial indications, it seems as though Turkey and Israel, with strong US encouragement, are keen to put their relations back on track as soon as possible. The immediate result of this is that Israel is likely to drop, or at least scale back its willingness to
engage in joint energy exploration and exploitation projects with Cyprus; especially after the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a strong warning to the Cypriot Government about trying to use energy reserves as collateral for any bailout agreement.
U.K. AN UNEXPECTED ALLY?
Interestingly, the one country that comes out of this rather better than many others is the United Kingdom. Relations between Cyprus and Britain have not always been easy, largely as a result of the legacy of British colonial rule over the island, which ended in 1960. Indeed, some Cypriot politicians have even referred to the British as demons. And yet, behind the populist rhetoric, in day-to-day terms the two countries actually enjoy very good working relations. As well as the large number of British expatriates living in Cyprus, and the large Cypriot community in Britain, the two share similar positions on a number key European issues. It is telling that, as the enormity of the situation sank in, the British Government sent a team of senior civil servants with experience in dealing with the UK’s banking crisis to Cyprus to help formulate proposals for restructuring or closing the island’s main banks. This relationship may well have been further cemented by the events of this week; especially if Cyprus becomes more avowedly Eurosceptic in its outlook. The immediate task facing Cyprus is to try to start rebuilding their economy. However, Cypriots will also be asking themselves many questions about the country’s foreign relations in the aftermath of the crisis. The EU may have given them the security versus Turkey that they always wanted, but that support has come at a very high price: perhaps too high in the minds of many. Meanwhile, it has been shown that while Russia has been a useful ally at times, its support is not as certain as many may have once liked to believe. All the while, hopes of developing new relations in the Eastern Mediterranean have been destroyed as Turkey’s sheer size and significance has won out. For Cyprus, it is fair to say that just as their economic situation has changed dramatically over the past ten days, so has their understanding of their place in the geopolitical order of things. James Ker-Lindsay is Eurobank Senior Research Fellow in the Politics of South East Europe at the European Institute, London School of Economics. He has written extensively on Cyprus. His books include The Cyprus Problem: What Everyone Needs to Know (OUP, 2011), The Government and Politics of Cyprus (Peter Lang, 2009, co-edited with Hubert Faustmann), and An Island in Europe: The EU and the Transformation of Cyprus (I.B.Tauris, 2011, co-edited with Fiona Mullen and Hubert Faustmann). He tweets @JamesKerLindsay
A Question of Sovereignty Henry Kissinger once asked : “Who do I call if I want to call Europe”. Today he would find a ready answer, forget the EU and the European Parliament, call Berlin and more specifically Mrs. Merkel and Dr. Schauble. The focus in Cyprus these past few days has understandably been on the economy but events have also highlighted the astonishing loss of sovereignty which characterises the new Europe. Cyprus illustrates how little national governments matter in the Euro zone. Mrs. Merkel and Dr. Schauble decreed that the Cyprus economic model was not acceptable. The Cyprus banking sector was too big and must be reduced (even though Luxembourg’s banking sector with 150 main banks is much bigger and the resident population smaller). This goes way beyond any previous intrusion into national affairs. No other Euro zone country has been required to remodel itself and destroy its main industry. Intervention into national matters has been experienced by much of Southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and now Cyprus. Nothing of economic importance in these countries can be decided without considering if it will be approved by the Troika. These same nations at one time or another fought for their independence. Cyprus illustrates how little of that is left. How did we get here? The European Union began as a
political organisation aimed at securing peace through a partnership of member countries. The Euro zone, comprised of 17 members of the EU, is largely a financial organisation dedicated to the implementation and functioning of a single currency. Even those critical of the single currency concept from its inception did not anticipate its major flaw. As a financial organisation with a financial objective, decision
By Jim Leontiades Cyprus International Institute of Management making power will inevitably gravitate towards the country with the strongest finances. Germany’s financial support is necessary for all major decisions.
THE FRENCH CONNECTION
This dominance was initially disguised during the early years which established the European Union by the partnership between France and Germany. Their joint
leadership of the EU was cemented after WWII when De Gaulle was the President of France and the French atomic bomb served as a bulwark against the Soviet Union. Today, the Soviet Union is gone. The French economy is in difficulty and so is the partnership. It is clear that Mr. Hollande, the French president has been marginalised. Germany makes the decisions. Unfortunately, these decisions have had very limited success. The sacrifices demanded of the Southern European countries have been justified on the grounds of future economic improvements if these countries only mend their ways. The improvements have not happened. The Merkel/Schauble brand of austerity economics has brought about the greatest economic decline in Southern Europe since World War II. It has divided Europe into North (the lenders) and South (the borrowers). There is a further growing division between those members of the EU inside the Euro zone and the other 10 EU countries which have not joined. Struggling with recession, the borrower countries have tended to overlook issues of sovereignty, even as their elected political figures plead with the Troika on matters relating to the governance of their own country. As the economic downturn continues, they will increasingly be asking: “Has it been worth it?”
March 27 - April 2, 2013
6 | OPINION | financialmirror.com
With friends like Dijsselbloem, who needs enemies? EDITORIAL A lot has been said about the persona of some of the key figures of the Troika who have “pillaged” our economy and desecrated our sovereignty, but few have had the courage to say that “we had it coming.” It’s been a glorious two weeks of every politician with a chip on his shoulder getting ten minutes of fame on national television, frustrating the public even more with uneducated guesses and vague suggestions. Few have suggested calm. Naturally, everyone in Cyprus suffers from the after-event syndrome, whereby golden theories are now available in abundance, ranging from returning to the good old pound to some more drastic measures such as selling everything to the Russians and becoming a Mediterranean Gulag. Fortunately, what seems to have prevailed among sane citizens has been the composed
views of a handful of academics and some mature politicians, the latter of whom were obliged on several occasions to raise their voice on air with the hope of drowning the insanity of others or making some narrow minded supporters of the disastrous previous administration shut up. Unfortunately, not only did we have it coming to us, we didn’t even see it coming when it was smack in our face. IMF delegations had been telling us for years that we needed to reduce our gross public sector deficit otherwise the state would not be able to support the banking sector in the case of default, one of the key parameters of all rating agencies prior to issuing a downgrade. This has been the main problem, while not a single politician has even mentioned downsizing the civil service (and their wages), with the occasional economist saying that we should perhaps keep pay at current levels in order to encourage growth and competitiveness. This means that everyone in Cyprus is
hoping that we will strike gold with the natural gas explorations as soon as possible so that the public payroll remains intact and damn the people suffering in the private sector. Had we dealt with our oversized public sector deficit, we would not have any problem with our “oversized” banking sector, which is not even a fraction of what Luxembourg has, and yet the GermanoFinDutch alliance does not dare mention the Duchy’s financial successes… for now. On the other hand, had we not rejected the first Eurogroup bailout terms, we would never have heard the Dutch finance minister unveil the dastardly plan to use Cyprus as a template for future bailout of troubled banks and economies, effectively splitting the Eurozone between North and South. At least now, the general public has Jeroen Dijsselbloem to blame for everything (although he deserves to), which takes some of the heat off Angela Merkel.
Déjà vu all over again It has been a truly sad experience for me to watch the dramatic series of events unfolding in the last ten days here in Cyprus. Being Russian and having lived through a number of crises in Russia before I moved to Cyprus eleven years ago, I thought I was well prepared to deal with the economic uncertainties of Europe. After all, I vividly remember the empty shelves of the grocery stores and the endless queues for bread at the end of 1991 – right before the extremely painful transformation of the planned Soviet economy into the equivalent of the wild market capitalism. I have lived through the 1998 default when the Russian government devalued the ruble, refused to pay domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors. For simple Russians it meant losing almost all of our savings due to massive bank closures and severe devaluation. The historical reports may say that Russia bounced back very quickly from the 1998 crisis (largely due to the luck of the growing oil and gas prices), but believe me, the feelings of disappointment, anger, pessimism and negativity have prevailed for years. This (and NOT money laundering!) is the biggest reason why Russians try to get away from their motherland and prefer to keep their money in banks abroad. Sadly, what I have seen in Cyprus in the last ten days felt
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painfully familiar. It is almost incredible how in a matter of a few days the whole Cypriot society has been submerged into the dangerous dark waters of gloom and uncertainty. The fear of the soviet-expropriation-style tax to be imposed even on small/insured depositors destroyed the trust of the locals, while foreign investors are cursing to stay away from our
By Dr Olga Kandinskaia CIIM Business School
banking sector once (or more like IF) they manage to recover their large deposits. Local businesses – both small and large - are outraged by the suddenly imposed deterioration of the economic climate. People are extremely worried about their future. Nothing seems safe and secure anymore. Last Friday, when the tension reached its peak, I witnessed desperate queues at ATMs and angry protests of bank employees. I never thought I’d see such things happening here in Cyprus. Neither could I imagine myself shopping for the double amount of food on Saturday and being approached by an American TV crew asking me why families are storing up on the food essentials and whether we are worried. The torturing uncertainty continued till the early hours of Monday. Finally the Eurogroup reached the agreement with the Cyprus authorities. Now we keep hearing that we should be happy that the immediate catastrophe has been averted, and that the EU will help us through the collapse of our economy. Somehow I don’t see any happy people around… What I find incomprehensible is that this shock therapy is happening in an EU country and it is not a mistake or
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incompetence of local politicians but is a medicine prescribed by the EU, ECB and IMF who are supposed to provide positive advice and whose ultimate mission is to ensure economic stability of the Eurozone. One of my Cypriot students commented last week: “My disappointment is big… how people with MSc, PhDs, Nobel in Economics, made a mess with the Cyprus economy…” There is certainly fault on the Cyprus side. Our politicians ignored the problems for several years. It is obvious that the Cyprus economy has many faults and has been in need of a restructuring for a while, but the barbarian methods of economic destruction and political humiliation, which troika did not hesitate to test out in the case of Cyprus, are really questionable. In the end, these methods defy the whole purpose of what it is all about, and we could even say that they undermine the very basic foundations of the European Union. Last year the EU received the Nobel Peace prize. To quote the Nobel Prize committee, it was awarded to the EU because “for over six decades it contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe”. If there was a prize to the EU for the Cyprus case, it should read: “for the advancement of misery and confrontation, poverty and national humiliation”. However, I do not want to end on a pessimistic note (even that I am allowed because I am Russian). Let us hope that all sides involved in this nasty episode have learned valuable lessons. I believe in the capacity of people in Cyprus (both Cypriots and foreigners like myself who consider this island as their home) to recover and bounce back. I also believe that the Cyprus case will serve as a wakeup call in Europe to signal the inappropriateness of the troika methods – no matter what “greater good” they advocate. Olga Kandinskaia is Assistant Professor of Finance and Director of the MSc in Management Programme at the Cyprus International Institute of Management.
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March 27 - April 2, 2013
financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7
Rolling the Dice in Cyprus PRINCETON – The task was never going to be an easy one: impose losses worth about €5.8 bln ($7.5 bln) on lenders to the Cypriot government and depositors with the country’s banks. And now that effort has led Europe to its latest impasse. In marathon negotiations, the Cypriot government, under the supervision of the troika (the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF), agreed to a one-time “tax” on bank deposits. But, despite an amendment to exempt accounts containing less than €20,000, the Cypriot parliament overwhelmingly rejected the plan, leaving Cyprus – and Europe – in limbo. In fact, large depositors are not unlike senior bondholders, and the proposed haircut was a small but welcome step forward. But, because it did not go far enough, a hole remained. There were other options. Lee Buchheit, the veteran sovereign-debt attorney who should have been in the negotiating room, and Mitu Gulati of Duke University have proposed an elegant “reprofiling” of Cyprus’s €15 bln sovereign debt that would instantly reduce the financing pressure on the country. But such considerations were off the table well before the deliberations began. Instead, the initial decision was to confiscate just under €3 bln from accounts containing less than €100,000 – the cutoff for deposit insurance. Make no mistake: this would have been the greatest policy error since the start of the financial crisis five years ago. Indeed, the proposal amounted to a rupture with the nearuniversal agreement that small depositors should be considered sacrosanct. After all, televised news footage of panicked depositors in long lines outside banks and at ATMs can cause immeasurable financial damage far beyond a country’s borders. Historians will argue whether forcing Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy in September 2008 precipitated the subsequent global financial crisis. Vincent Reinhart, formerly of the US Federal Reserve and now at Morgan Stanley, has argued that the Lehman decision was correct (the error came earlier, with the bailout of Bear Stearns, which created an expectation that all banks would be bailed out). Private risks must be privately borne. By contrast, the proposal to impose losses on small Cypriot
depositors had no redeeming justification whatsoever. As in Ireland, the most vulnerable were being asked to take the hit, while large depositors were let off lightly and other lenders were to be spared. But it gets worse.
By Ashoka Mody Visiting professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University.
There has never been an official explanation of why lenders to a sovereign should not share the pain, despite the “no bailout” principle on which the eurozone was founded. Most observers cite the authorities’ concern that if any sovereign does not honor its debts, all sovereign borrowers will be penalized. But such contagion risk is trivial compared to the wildfire that could be ignited by imposing losses on small depositors. In mid-2007, Cyprus qualified for eurozone membership by meeting the stringent Maastricht criteria, intended to ensure that new entrants would behave responsibly and flourish in the secure environment provided by the currency union. In the months leading up to the decision, the IMF urged Cyprus to take all necessary steps to ensure a favorable outcome. The benefits of Cyprus’s adoption of the euro may never be clear. By 2009, the IMF’s Article IV Staff Report was already ringing the alarm bells. Public debt was still low, but growing rapidly; the current-account deficit was ballooning (reaching 15% of GDP in 2008); and the banks had gone Icelandic, with assets worth more than three times Cyprus’s GDP. As the report noted, the huge and highly concentrated banking sector’s problems could “quickly escalate to systemic proportions with serious economic repercussions.” And so they have. This is a remarkable outcome, given that the risks have been so
well known and understood. Indeed, the Cypriot authorities have been engaged in ongoing discussions with the troika for the past year. And yet, despite all of the preparation, a night of closed-door negotiations led to a stunningly elementary error. Compounding that error was the absence of any substantive decision concerning how to extricate Cyprus from its downward spiral. Cypriot debt, we are told, will rise to 140% of GDP, but will fall to about 100% of GDP in less than a decade. This appears to be another replay of the Greek scenario, with targets for reducing the debt burden repeatedly missed, until more drastic steps become inevitable. Most important, no restructuring of Cypriot banks appears imminent; on the contrary, the intent seems to be to keep large depositors from fleeing and preserve the highly risky system. The Central Bank of Cyprus has provided large loans to Cypriot banks under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance arrangement, implying that the collateral offered did not meet the standards of the ECB. More train wrecks are in the making. The problems in Cyprus now threaten international financial stability. If the idea of a European banking union is serious, now is the moment to advance it. That means reaffirming the commitment to deposit insurance, closing unviable banks, and recapitalizing the rest with European (not Cypriot) funds. The troika’s decision on Cyprus was akin to policymaking by rolling the dice. The coming days will reveal the extent of the immediate damage that it has caused. But, with another display of reactive and ad hoc decision-making, we are no wiser about how Europe intends to resolve its dilemmas. Could the Cypriot setback catalyze a fresh start? Ashoka Mody, a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the IMF, is currently Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. © Project Syndicate, 2013. www.project-syndicate.org
March 27 - April 2, 2013
8 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com
Cyprus should impose “Labour Solidarity Tax” to counter deepening recession Following the Eurogroup agreement paving the way for the brutal and speedy restructuring of Cyprus banks and the economy in general, which in the process averted a catastrophic bankruptcy of the country, the government should immediately proceed to impose a “Labour Solidarity Tax” to counter the impact from the deepening recession. It does not need a genius to realise that the impact from the 15-day bank closure, the freezing and deep haircut of deposits above EUR 100,000 at Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank will have a major negative impact on the economy and the government’s revenue targets will be missed badly. Cyprus’ €17.5 bln economy was officially forecast to shrink 3.5% this year. Everybody will agree that the blow to our financial sector, which accounts for about half of economic activity, combined with an existing credit squeeze, which will have a massive impact on the rest of the economy, will probably force GDP to decline by double the forecast to 7% or even more. We have seen how wrong the IMF has been in forecasting the negative impact on the Greek economy from the austerity packages, which led to more cuts until Greece finally managed to balance its books. Cyprus has already wasted precious time under the previous administration and because of the stupidity of all our public and private sector organisations that, throughout the time when Troika representatives were meeting them to discuss the state of the economy and their particular sectors, all they were doing was drawing stupid “red lines” which crumbled and were erased in seconds.
The fallout from the crisis may lead to a decline in GDP of 10% this year and perhaps another 5%-7% in 2014, which when combined with the decline sustained during the past two years, could take the overall GDP contraction to above 20%. “Weaker GDP performance implies a higher debt-to-GDP burden,” noted ratings firm Standard & Poor’s. Last week, the firm cut Cyprus’s sovereign-debt rating a notch to triple-
By Shavasb Bohdjalian Certified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd. C from triple-C-plus, saying it sees the economy now shrinking 6%, heightening the risk that Cyprus may not be able to meet the terms set for the loan. Similar to Greece, Cyprus is facing massive job losses, rising business bankruptcies and a decline in tax revenue as a result of the contraction. This means the forecasted revenue targets in the budget will be missed and if we don’t take action from now (reduce government expenses) then that would lead to even harsher measures and once again stoke fears about the island’s long-term future inside the euro zone. Let’s not beat around the bush and think that the crisis will somehow go away. The financial model and all our aspirations of becoming a financial centre have been damaged beyond repair and with the deteriorating economic climate,
President Nicos Anastasiades needs to take action now. The most sensible thing would be for Anastasiades to order a 10% additional cut in civil service and semi-government organisation salaries and a cap on pensions to make the extra savings. The President may, however, be reluctant to impose greater pain on the population, which is why I propose calling this a “Labour Solidarity Tax” which could also include all those in the private sector earning more than EUR 2000 monthly. The tax would remain in force for as long as it takes until the country starts growing again and tax revenues climb higher, allowing the government to eventually reduce or remove the tax. But if we don’t take action now, come September or December, the Troika will demand additional cuts, which will only extend the misery into 2014 and beyond. President Anastasiades has shown courage and determination in taking painful measures to restore confidence in the economy and return this country to growth. He needs to take action on the fiscal imbalance now, rather than later. shavasb@eurivex.com (Eurivex is a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized and regulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved by the Cyprus Stock Exchange to act as Nomad and by the Vienna Stock Exchange to act as Listing Agent for listings of shares, bonds and funds. The views expressed above are personal and do not bind the company and are subject to change without notice.)
Only 2180 Certified Public Accountants (from a total of 384,000 CPAs worldwide) have been able to obtain the qualification Certified in Financial Forensics (CFF) and only 19 of them are outside the United States. Rakis Christoforou is the first Cypriot to get the CFF certification which is considered a vital tool for professionals to help in financial investigations and bring those who break the law to justice.
Are YOU certified in Financial Forensics? l
A necessary tool to help conduct proper financial investigations
What’s so special, one may ask, about being the first Cypriot to get the CFF (Certified in Financial Forensics) certification? Well, it is not only important for me but also for our country especially after being accused of money laundering. This qualification gives me the opportunity to participate in conferences in the US and elsewhere where I can meet with world experts and find out about the latest developments in the fields of forensic accounting and Business Valuations. The presence of a Cypriot professional in such conferences is, by itself, very important. For a Cypriot, this certification creates added responsibility as there are many things that need to change so that we (a) enhance controls in order to prevent and/or detect fraud and economic crimes and (b) manage, at last, to bring in front of the justice system those involved in material fraudulent activities. I have always aspired to get into the details of financial problems that companies face and look behind the numbers to find out exactly what really happened. We must always try to stay in touch with new developments if we truly want to be competitive. Forensic accounting, the latest development in the industry, involves the application of specialised knowledge and investigative skills possessed by professional accountants to collect, analyse and evaluate evidential matter and to interpret and communicate findings in the courtroom, boardroom or other legal/administrative venue. The focus of CFF is in the areas of Financial Statement Misrepresentation, Fraud Prevention Detection and Response, Economic Damages Calculations, Business Valuations, Bankruptcy Insolvency and Reorganization, Computer Forensic Analysis and even Family Law. Forensic Accountants work closely with lawyers. It is important for the large companies and organisations to maintain forensic accountants in their workforce in order to apply the proper internal controls and at the same time in case of a fraud instance they know how to react in order to protect evidential matter that may be needed in case of a court proceeding.
PREPARING FOR THE EXAM
A candidate must study for many hours, almost daily, for a
year. I used to wake up at 5 in the morning and study for two hours before going to work and then the same after work, during weekends and holidays. What really helped me pass the CFF exam was my in-depth knowledge of Business Valuation having already spent time preparing for the ABV (Accredited in Business Valuation) exam which was an exhaustive 7-hour exam that I had taken and passed.
By Rakis Christoforou
OBTAINING THE CFF QUALIFICATION
These professional exams are only given in the U.S. and only CPA members of AICPA are allowed to participate in the Credential program. A CFF candidate must also have 5 years’ experience as a CPA, a minimum of 1000 hours of business experience in Forensic Accounting and an additional 75 hours of forensic accounting related CPE (Continuing Professional Education) credits that are gained after passing relevant exams. The final exam is rigorous and lasts four hours. During that time, candidates must answer 180 multiple choice questions and relate to case studies. The CFF Certification was first introduced in 2008 by the AICPA in order to help CPAs specialiSe in the area of forensic accounting that became a hot issue after the economic scandals that shook the world.
THE USE IN CYPRUS
The government, large corporations and organisations need to employ professional accountants holding the CFF certification and/or other experts in this field, including CFEs (Certified Fraud Examiners) and CIAs (Certified Internal Auditors) to apply
the proper internal controls for companies and act as watchdogs against financial crimes. Now is the time to prove to foreign authorities that we have professionals dedicated to fighting fraud and as a nation we are taking steps in that direction. During the last 15 years we have experienced a number of major scandals, but no one has been tried in court. These scandals have drained our economy. Without overseas help it is impossible for our economy to survive. Economic scandals did occur in many countries abroad but those responsible faced the law and most of them were convicted. In government, as well as on the boards and the top management of many organisations, we see people in charge without relevant education or expertise, probably because good corporate governance is not properly applied in most cases. This could be one of the reasons why many public organisations and companies did not properly assess the forthcoming economic recession even when the signs were clearly pointing to that direction. During this period, important and wrong decisions were taken and implemented by many organisations which raises the question whether such decisions were taken due to the greed of some of the leaders in charge of corporations and organisations or simply because of ignorance. Leaders need to have two qualities: ETHOS and KNOWLEDGE. Ethos protects leaders from greediness, abuse of power for personal benefit, and helps them to treat their employees fairly and objectively. Knowledge helps them take the right decision or seek support from those who have the knowledge. Leaders must know that their power is temporary and only if they act fairly and wisely will they have the right to retain it.
SEMINARS On Wednesday, March 27, Rakis Christoforou will be giving an in-house seminar on Forensic Accounting to the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and on Thursday at Cleopatra Hotel for the Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus (ICPAC).
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¡. ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜: ¶∞¡π∫√™ Ì ¶·Ó›ÎÔ Στα άκρα βρίσκονται οι σχέσεισ του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκου Αναστασιάδη και του ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκου ∆ηµητριάδη. Ùπωσ είµαστε σε θέση να γνωρίζουµε ο κ. Αναστασιάδησ δήλωσε σε στενούσ συνεργάτεσ του Þτι νιώθει έντονη απογοήτευση για τουσ χειρισµούσ ∆ηµητριάδη στην κρίση στο χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα αποδίδοντασ του τεράστιεσ ευθύνεσ για την οδυνηρή συµφωνία για την κυπριακή οικονοµία στο τελευταίο Eurogroup. ΑπÞτοκη τησ κακήσ σχέσησ των δύο αντρών ήταν και η απÞφαση του Νίκου Αναστασιάδη να πάρει µαζί του στο Eurogroup τον Γιώργο Συρίχα Ανώτερο ∆ιευθυντή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, στέλεχοσ που αποδυνάµωσε σηµαντικά µε την ανάληψη των καθηκÞντων του ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ. ΚαθÞλου τυχαία δεν ήταν και η απÞφαση του Προέδρου να διορίσει ποινικÞ ανακριτή για το βούρκο που βρέθηκε η κυπριακή οικονοµία, κίνηση που κύκλοι κοντά στο ΠροεδρικÞ την ερµηνεύουν ωσ µοχλÞ πίεσησ προσ το ∆ιοικητή για να υποβάλει την παραίτηση του. Οι ίδιοι κύκλοι µασ ανέφεραν Þτι σκιέσ για διάφορουσ χειρισµούσ του κ. ∆ηµητριάδη άφησε και ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Μιχάλησ Σαρρή µε αποκορύφωµα τουσ πρÞσφατουσ διορισµούσ του Ντίνου Χριστοφίδη και τησ Άντρησ Αντωνιάδου ωσ ειδικούσ διαχειριστέσ στο σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ των Τραπεζών Κύπρου και Λαϊκήσ αντίστοιχα. ∆ηλαδή καλ-
λιεργείται παρÞµοιο κλίµα Þπωσ αυτÞ του τέωσ Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ∆ηµήτρη ΧριστÞφια και του πρώην υπουργού Οικονοµικών Χαρίλαου Σταυράκη µε τον τέωσ ∆ιοικητή Αθανάσιο Ορφανίδη Þπου η έλλειψη συντονισµού και οι κακέσ σχέσεισ
που είχαν έφεραν την κυπριακή οικονοµία στην τραγική εικÞνα του σήµερα. Το σίγουρο είναι Þτι κ. Αναστασιάδησ µε βάση το σύνταγµα δεν µπορεί να παύσει τον κ. ∆ηµητριάδη πριν την ολοκλήρωση τησ θητείασ του, µπορεί ωστÞσο να τον αναγκάσει να υποβάλει
παραίτηση ώστε να διευκολύνει το έργο του. Υπάρχει ωστÞσο η δυνατÞτητα για τροποποίηση του συντάγµατοσ εάν αυτÞ πρώτα εγκριθεί απÞ τη Βουλή, κίνηση ωστÞσο επικίνδυνη καθώσ θα αποδυνάµωνε το θεσµÞ του ∆ιοικητή ωσ ανεξάρτητου. Ο Νίκοσ Αναστασιάδησ εµφανίστηκε ενοχληµένοσ απÞ τη στάση του ∆ιοικητή, ακÞµα και πριν την εκλογή του στην προεδρία µε σηµείο καµπήσ τουσ άγνωστουσ Þρουσ εντολήσ των ερευνών τησ Alvarez & Marsal για τισ ευθύνεσ των τραπεζών. Ασ µην ξεχνάµε Þτι η Κεντρική κατηγορήθηκε επίσησ και για «φούσκωµα» του ποσού που χρειάζονται οι κυπριακέσ τράπεζεσ για την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τουσ. Επίσησ δεν πέρασε απαρατήρητοσ ο διορισµÞσ Σπύρου Σταυρινάκη στην θέση του Υποδιοικητή 13 µέρεσ πριν την λήξη τησ θητείασ του ∆. ΧριστÞφια που είχε προκαλέσει τÞτε τριγµούσ στισ σχέσεισ τησ αντιπολίτευσησ, νυν κυβέρνησησ και τησ ∆ιοίκησησ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ. Πάντωσ η πρÞσφατη απÞφαση του ∆ιοικητή, η οποία τελικά άρθηκε, να επιτρέψει τη λειτουργία των τραπεζών χωρίσ περιοριστικά µέτρα, κατέστη η αιτία τησ νέασ κÞντρασ µεταξύ κυβέρνησησ και Κεντρικήσ. Ο Πανίκοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ διορίστηκε στην θέση του διοικητή τησ Κ.Τ, το Μάιο του 2012, λίγεσ βδοµάδεσ πριν την κρατικοποίηση τησ Λαϊκήσ, απÞ τον τÞτε πρÞεδρο ΧριστÞφια, αντικαθιστώντασ τον Αθανάσιο Ορφανίδη. Το σίγουρο είναι πωσ Þπου υπάρχει καπνÞσ υπάρχει και φωτιά.
∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÙÒÓÔ˘Ó Î·È ÚÔ‚ÏËÌ·Ù›˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ¯ÂÈÚÈÛÌÔ› ¢ËÌËÙÚÈ¿‰Ë Μετά τον επικεφαλή του Eurogroup Γερούν Ντάισελµπλουµ και τισ απειλέσ για χρεοκοπία τησ Κύπρου, έντονη είναι η αναστάτωση που προκάλεσε χθεσ ο ∆ιοικητήσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ. Ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ βρέθηκε στο στÞχαστρο των υπαλλήλων τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, µετά το διάταγµα που εξέδωσε η Κεντρική στο οποίο γινÞταν αναφορά για πώληση τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου και στον διορισµÞ διαχειριστή. Μετά την αναστάτωση που προκλήθηκε ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ δήλωσε πωσ οι ενέργειεσ που κάνει η Κεντρική Τράπεζα αποσκοπούν στη διάσωση τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου. Το επίµαχο διάταγµα προκάλεσε έντονη αναστάτωση ανάµεσα στουσ υπαλλήλουσ τησ Τράπεζασ, οι οποίοι ζήτησαν την άµεση ανάκληση του συγκεκριµένου διατάγµατοσ. Οι διαδηλωτέσ επέδωσαν επιστολή στον διοικητή στην οποία ανέφεραν πωσ, οι οποίεσ διαδικασίεσ γίνονται µε το πρÞσχηµα τησ επαναφοράσ τησ εύρυθµησ λειτουργίασ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, κάθε άλλο παρά αυτÞ εξυπηρετούν. Ùπωσ υπογραµµιζÞταν στην επιστολή, η Τράπεζα Κύπρου οδηγείται στην καταστροφή και αυτÞ θα έχει ωσ αποτέλεσµα την πλήρη κατάρρευση τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Μετά απÞ αυτέσ τισ εξελίξεισ ο Πανίκοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ συγκάλεσε διάσκεψη Τύπου στην οποία τÞνισε πωσ στÞχοσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ είναι η δηµιουργία µιασ πολύ ισχυρήσ τράπεζασ που θα αποκτήσει πρÞσβαση στο ευρωσύστηµα, και Þχι στον ELA. «Η συγχώνευση µε τη Λαϊκή θα µασ δώσει µια πολύ ισχυρή Τράπεζα», τÞνισε. Απαντώντασ σε ερώτηση, είπε Þτι δεν πρÞκειται να παραιτηθεί και να συµβάλει στην επιδείνωση τησ κατάστασησ τησ χώρασ. «Τυγχάνω τησ εµπιστοσύνησ τησ ΕΚΤ», ανέφερε χαρακτηριστικά. Ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ είπε Þτι καταβάλλονται µεγάλεσ προσπάθειεσ να ανοίξουν οι τράπεζεσ αύριο Πέµπτη και υπενθύµισε Þτι το κούρεµα των καταθέσεων στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου
θα είναι γύρω στο 40% ενώ οι περιορισµοί στην διακίνηση κεφαλαίων αναµένεται να είναι προσωρινοί. Ο διοικητήσ, που ανέλαβε το Μάιο του 2012, λίγεσ βδοµάδεσ πριν την κρατικοποίηση τησ Λαϊκήσ, βρίσκεται το τελευταίο διάστηµα στο επίκεντρο των επικρίσεων για την κατάσταση που έχει δηµιουργηθεί. Ο κυβερνητικÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ Χρίστοσ Στυλιανίδησ αρνήθηκε να απαντήσει ευθέωσ αν ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ χαίρει τησ εµπιστοσύνησ του προέδρου, συµπληρώνοντασ πωσ µε βάση την απÞφαση του Eurogroup, η διαδικασία που αφορά στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου είναι εντελώσ διαφορετική απÞ τη διαδικασία που αφορά στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Ο κ. Στυλιανίδησ ανακοίνωσε επίσησ την πρÞθεση του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκου Αναστασιάδη για σύσταση ερευνητικήσ επιτροπήσ, η οποία θα αναζητήσει τυχÞν ποινικέσ, αστικέσ ή πολιτικέσ ευθύνεσ για τη µεγάλη οικονοµική τραγωδία που έπληξε τον τÞπο, Þπωσ είπε. ΤÞνισε, επίσησ, πωσ η Κυβέρνηση «δεν θα αφήσει πέτρα που δεν θα σηκώσει» προκειµένου να εντοπίσει τουσ υπαίτιουσ αυτήσ τησ πρωτοφανούσ τραγωδίασ. Ουσιαστικά η Τράπεζα Κύπρου βρίσκεται πλέον σε µία διαδικασία εξυγίανσησ, η οποία ακυρώνει την ύπαρξη του διοικητικού συµβουλίου και των µετÞχων τησ τράπεζασ. Συνεπώσ, µε το «κούρεµα» των καταθέσεων τησ Τράπεζασ και την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τησ, οι καταθέτεσ οι οποίοι θα πάρουν ωσ αντιστάθµισµα µετοχέσ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, µετατρέπονται στουσ νέουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ τησ τράπεζασ. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Μιχάλησ Σαρρήσ διαβεβαίωσε πάντωσ Þτι η Τράπεζα Κύπρου έχει Þλεσ τισ προϋποθέσεισ, Þχι µÞνο για να επιβιώσει αλλά και για να πάει στα 200 χρÞνια λειτουργίασ, να ενδυναµωθεί και να εξυπηρετήσει τον Κύπριο καταθέτη και τον Κύπριο επιχειρηµατία. Μιλώντασ στην παρουσία του ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκου ∆ηµητριάδη και του Υποδιοικητή τησ ΚΤ
Σπύρου Σταυρινάκη, τÞσο ο ΥΠΟΙΚ Þσο και ο ∆ιοικητήσ τησ ΚΤ ανέφεραν Þτι ο διορισµÞσ διαχειριστή είναι µια ξεχωριστή διαδικασία που ακολουθείται στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου και στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Ο κ. Σταυρινάκησ είπε Þτι ο διορισµÞσ έχει ισχύ στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου και συνίσταται πρώτιστοσ στην διεκπεραίωση ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ τησ τράπεζασ και στην απορρÞφηση των εργασιών τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ. Σε κάθε περίπτωση η διαδικασία τησ εξυγίανσησ είναι πολύ διαφορετική απÞ τη διαδικασία τησ εκκαθάρισησ που ακολουθείται στην Λαϊκή Τράπεζα, πρÞσθεσε.
ªË ·Ô‰ÂÎÙ¤˜ 5 ·Ú·ÈÙ‹ÛÂȘ Πέντε µέλη του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µεταξύ των οποίων και ο πρÞεδροσ, υπέβαλαν χθεσ τισ παραιτήσεισ τουσ. Το διοικητικÞ σώµα δεν αποδέχθηκε τισ παραιτήσεισ. Οι πέντε που υπέβαλαν τισ παραιτήσεισ τουσ είναι: Ανδρέασ Αρτέµησ (ΠρÞεδροσ), Βασίλησ Γ. ΡολÞγησ (Μέλοσ), Κώστασ Ζ. Σεβέρησ (Μέλοσ), Άννα ∆ιογένουσ (Μέλοσ) και Τάκησ Αράπογλου (Μέλοσ). Το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο δεν απεδέχθη τισ παραιτήσεισ. Σύµφωνα µε το ΚαταστατικÞ τησ εταιρείασ οι παραιτήσεισ θα ισχύουν µÞνο εφ’ Þσον δεν αποσυρθούν εντÞσ µίασ εβδοµάδασ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
π‰Ô‡ Ù· ÂÚÈÔÚÈÛÙÈο ̤ÙÚ· ÁÈ· Û˘Ó·ÏÏ·Á¤˜ To πλαίσιο του περί τησ επιβολήσ προσωρινών περιοριστικών µέτρων στισ συναλλαγέσ σε περίπτωση έκτακτησ ανάγκησ νÞµο του 2013 δηµοσιεύει σήµερα η Financial Mirror. Το διάταγµα προβλέπει µέγιστο ποσÞ ανάληψησ εβδοµαδιαίωσ σε κάθε πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα ή το ισÞποσο σε ξένο συνάλλαγµα. Νοείται Þτι οποιοδήποτε ποσÞ απÞ το µέγιστο επιτρεπÞµενο δεν αποσυρθεί κατά τη διάρκεια εφαρµογήσ του διατάγµατοσ µπορεί να αποσυρθεί ανά πάσα στιγµή αργÞτερα. Το διάταγµα απαγορεύει επίσησ ρητά την ανάληψη µετρητών απÞ νοµικά πρÞσωπα και την εξαργύρωση επιταγών αφού για τισ επιταγέσ θα επιτρέπεται µÞνο κατάθεση σε ειδικÞ λογαριασµÞ. Απαγορεύεται επίσησ κάθε πληρωµή ή και µεταφορά χρηµάτων µέσω χρεωστικήσ κάρτασ ή και πιστωτικήσ ή και προπληρωµένησ κάρτασ µε εξαίρεση αν γίνεται προσ λογαριασµÞ στο ίδιο πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα. Η πιο σηµαντική απαγÞρευση αφορά τισ
χωρίσ µετρητά πληρωµέσ ή µεταφορά χρηµάτων εκτÞσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ εκτÞσ και αν δώσει εξαίρεση η Επιτροπή που έχει συσταθεί µε βάση το άρθρο 9 του νÞµου. Εξαίρεση µε βάση το διάταγµα γιατί είναι κάτι που ενδιαφέρει χιλιάδεσ πολίτεσ δίδεται για συναλλαγέσ που αφορούν λογικέσ πληρωµέσ για τρÞφιµα, καύσιµα, φαρµακευτικά προϊÞντα καθώσ και δίδακτρα και έξοδα διαµονήσ συγγενών πρώτου βαθµού κατοίκων ∆ηµοκρατίασ και οποιεσδήποτε άλλεσ επείγουσεσ και απαραίτητεσ πληρωµέσ. Τώρα απÞ εκεί και πέρα το διάταγµα προβλέπει απαγÞρευση του τερµατισµού κατάθεσησ προθεσµίασ πριν την καθορισµένη ηµεροµηνία λήξησ. ΩστÞσο ποσÞ το οποίο θα καθοριστεί µεταφέρεται κατά την επιλογή του καταθέτη σε τρεχούµενο λογαριασµÞ ή Þψεωσ ή σε νέα κατάθεση προθεσµίασ του καταθέτη στο ίδιο πιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα. Για το υπÞλοιπο ποσÞ η ηµεροµηνία λήξησ τησ κατάθεσησ
προθεσµίασ µπορεί να επεκταθεί απÞ 3-12 µήνεσ. Απαγορεύεται επίσησ η οποιαδήποτε συναλλαγή, πληρωµή ή και µεταφορά µεταξύ ενÞσ πιστωτικού ιδρύµατοσ και οποιασδήποτε οντÞτητασ ανήκει στον ίδιο Ùµιλο εκτÞσ και αν εξασφαλιστεί προηγούµενη έγκριση τησ Επιτροπήσ. Άλλο σηµείο που αφορά επίσησ αρκετÞ κÞσµο είναι η επιβολή πλαφÞν για µεταφορά χαρτονοµισµάτων σε ευρώ ή και σε ξένο συνάλλαγµα ανά φυσικÞ πρÞσωπο ανά ταξίδι στο εξωτερικÞ εκτÞσ και αν εξασφαλιστεί ειδική εξαίρεση απÞ την Επιτροπή. Μάλιστα διορίζεται ο ∆ιευθυντήσ Τελωνείων ωσ υπεύθυνοσ για την υλοποίηση του µέτρου. Σχετικά µε τισ συναλλαγέσ που εξαιρούνται των περιοριστικών µέτρων αφορούν Þλα τα χρήµατα που µεταφέρονται απÞ το εξωτερικÞ στην Κύπρο εκτÞσ εάν αφορά µεταφορά χρηµάτων απÞ τα υποκαταστήµα-
£¤ÏÔ˘Ó ÙËÓ Ï›ÛÙ· Ì ÙȘ ÂÎÚÔ¤˜ Â‰Ò Î·È ÙÒÚ· Επιστολέσ στον ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκο ∆ηµητριάδη αλλά και στην ∆ιαχειρίστρια τησ Λαϊκήσ Αντρη Αντωνίου, αποστέλλονται απÞ την Επιτροπή Θεσµών τησ Βουλήσ ώστε να δοθούν στοιχεία για τα άτοµα που προχώρησαν στην εκροή καταθέσεων απÞ Κύπρο και Ελλάδα. Σε δηλώσεισ µετά το πέρασ τησ χθεσινήσ συνεδρίασ τησ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών που κράτησε πέραν των πέντε ωρών, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµήτρησ Συλλούρησ είπε Þτι «η Επιτροπή εξετάζοντασ το θέµα, έχει δηµιουργήσει µια εικÞνα που χρήζει περισσÞτερησ πληροφÞρησησ και σε βάθοσ απÞ την Κυβέρνηση αλλά και ταυτÞχρονα διερεύνησησ κατά πÞσον η Κυβέρνηση ήταν πληροφορηµένη - και η προηγούµενη και η τωρινή - για πολλά πράγµατα τα οποία ήταν σηµαντικά και δηµιούργησαν το πρÞβληµα στο τραπεζιτικÞ σύστηµα και ιδιαίτερα στην Λαϊκή». Σε αυτÞ το στάδιο, σηµείωσε, για να γίνει σωστά η δουλειά µασ δεν πρέπει να πούµε περισσÞτερα ούτε να υποσχεθούµε τίποτα πέραν του Þτι θα προσπαθήσουµε να βρούµε την πραγµατική αλήθεια έστω και εκ των υστέρων. Με την επιστολή προσ το ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ
Τράπεζασ, η Επιτροπή Θεσµών ζητά Þπωσ τεθεί ο κατάλογοσ των προσώπων που έχουν µεταφέρει χρήµατα εκτÞσ Κύπρου τη χρονική περίοδο πριν τισ 15 Μαρτίου. Ο Επίτροποσ Προστασίασ Προσωπικών ∆εδοµένων Γιάννησ ∆ανιηλίδησ, ερωτούµενοσ σχετικά απÞ τα µέλη τησ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών, είπε πωσ η δηµοσιοποίηση του καταλÞγου των προσώπων αυτών είναι θέµα του ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ να αποφασίσει αλλά έχει υποχρέωση να τον στείλει στην Βουλή, η οποία θα τα διαχειριστεί Þπωσ νοµίζει καλύτερα. Ο κ. Συλλούρησ ζήτησε Þπωσ τα στοιχεία απÞ τον ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ σταλούν επειγÞντωσ. ΑυτÞ που έκανε ιδιαίτερη αίσθηση στα µέλη τησ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών, ήταν η αποκάλυψη απÞ τον ΠρÞεδρο του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Λαϊκήσ Ανδρέα Φιλίππου, Þτι αν δεν γινÞταν αποθυγατροποίηση των Ελλαδικών εργασιών – που ενέκρινε και η Κεντρική Τράπεζα - η Λαϊκή θα γλύτωνε 5 δισ. ευρώ. Είπε ακÞµη Þτι στοιχεία υπάρχουν και στην Κύπρο και Ελλάδα, αλλά αν η Τράπεζα πωληθεί δεν θα µπορούν να δοθούν.
ŸÏ· ÛÙËÓ ¶ÂÈÚ·ÈÒ˜ Ì €5 525 ÂÎ. Την υπογραφή συµφωνίασ για την απÞκτηση Þλων των καταθέσεων, δανείων και καταστηµάτων στην Ελλάδα τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, τησ Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) και τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των δανείων και καταθέσεων των θυγατρικών τουσ στην Ελλάδα (leasing, factoring και Επενδυτική Τράπεζα Ελλάδοσ-IBG), έναντι συνολικού τιµήµατοσ 524 εκ. ευρώ, ανακοίνωσε χθεσ η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ. Η συµφωνία καταρτίσθηκε σε συνέχεια πρÞτασησ που υπέβαλε η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ για την εξαγορά του δικτύου καταστηµάτων και των δραστηριοτήτων των τριών κυπριακών τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα, στο πλαίσιο σχετικήσ πρÞσκλησησ που απηύθυναν προσ τισ ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ η ελληνική κυβέρνηση, η Τράπεζα τησ Ελλάδοσ και το Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ (ΤΧΣ). Η συµφωνία διασφαλίζει τη σταθερÞτητα του ελληνικού τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ, συνδράµει την Κύπρο στην αντιµε-
τώπιση τησ κρίσησ και εξασφαλίζει τουσ καταθέτεσ, πελάτεσ και υπαλλήλουσ των τριών κυπριακών τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα µετά τισ πρÞσφατεσ εξελίξεισ. Με την ενσωµάτωση των δραστηριοτήτων αυτών, το συνολικÞ ενεργητικÞ του Οµίλου τησ Τράπεζασ Πειραιώσ ανέρχεται σε 95 δισ ευρώ µε 1.660 καταστήµατα και 24.000 υπαλλήλουσ. Με αυτή την εξέλιξη τα καταστήµατα των τριών κυπριακών τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα θα επαναλειτουργήσουν απÞ σήµερα Τετάρτη, 27 Μαρτίου 2013 και Þλεσ οι συναλλαγέσ θα διενεργούνται κανονικά. Υπενθυµίζεται τέλοσ Þτι καταθέσεισ πελατών των ελληνικών καταστηµάτων τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, τησ Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) και τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ δεν υπÞκεινται σε οποιαδήποτε έκτακτη εισφορά ή “κούρεµα” που έχει αποφασισθεί στην Κύπρο.
™ÂÓ¿ÚÈÔ ÌÂÙ·ÊÔÚ¿˜ ÙˆÓ Ù·Ì›ˆÓ ÚÔÓÔ›·˜ Η µεταφορά των ταµείων προνοίασ στην «καλή Λαϊκή» και µετέπειτα στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου ώστε να διασωθούν, είναι ένα εκ των σεναρίων που µελετάει η Κυβέρνηση Þπωσ αναφέρει δηµοσίευµα του ΚΥΠΕ. Ùπωσ αναφέρθηκε στο ΚΥΠΕ απÞ αξιÞπιστη πηγή, τα ταµεία προνοίασ µπορεί τÞτε να χρειαστεί να λάβουν κάποιεσ µετοχέσ σε αντάλλαγµα για µέροσ των κεφαλαίων τουσ, αλλά τουλάχιστον δεν θα παραµείνουν στην «κακή Λαϊκή». Απαντώντασ σε ερώτηση κατά πÞσο η ΤρÞικα, υπÞ την αίρεση τησ οποίασ θα ήταν η οποιαδήποτε διευθέτηση, θα µπορούσε να αποδεχθεί κάτι τέτοιο, η ίδια πηγή, ήταν καταφατική, λέγοντασ Þτι είναι απÞ τα σενάρια που βρίσκονται στο τραπέζι. «Είναι απÞλυτα εφικτÞ», πρÞσθεσε.
Ùσον αφορά στο προσωπικÞ τησ Λαϊκήσ, Þπωσ αναφέρθηκε στο ΚΥΠΕ, απÞ τÞτε που η Κυβέρνηση προχώρησε στη διάσωση τησ Λαϊκήσ το καλοκαίρι του 2012, θα έπρεπε να είχε υπάρξει σχεδιασµÞσ για µείωση του προσωπικού τησ τράπεζασ, πράγµα που δεν έγινε. Σύµφωνα µε την ίδια πηγή, το προσωπικÞ τησ Λαϊκήσ που θα ενσωµατωθεί στην ‘καλή Λαϊκή’ θα καταβληθεί προσπάθεια να ενσωµατωθεί στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου. ΑπÞ την άλλη, εκφράστηκε η εκτίµηση, πωσ το προσωπικÞ που θα παραµείνει στην ‘κακή Λαϊκή’, µπορεί να έχει µια προοπτική να συνεχιστεί η εργοδÞτησή του για τουλάχιστον µερικά χρÞνια ωσÞτου η ‘κακή Λαϊκή’ κλείσει εν τέλει τισ πÞρτεσ τησ, Þπωσ έχει γίνει σε παρÞµοιεσ περιπτώσεισ σε Ελλάδα και Βρετανία.
τα των τραπεζών στο εξωτερικÞ. Επιτρέπεται επίσησ η ανάληψη µετρητών απÞ λογαριασµÞ που βρίσκεται στο εξωτερικÞ µέσω πιστωτικήσ ή χρεωστικήσ κάρτασ που εκδÞθηκε απÞ ξένο ίδρυµα και η εξαργύρωση επιταγών που εκδίδονται επί λογαριασµών που βρίσκονται σε ξένα ιδρύµατα του εξωτερικού. Το διάταγµα προβλέπει επίσησ την υποχρέωση κάθε φυσικού προσώπου που έχει τη συνήθη κατοικία στην Κύπρο και κάθε νοµικού προσώπου που έχει εγγεγραµµένο γραφείο στην Κύπρο να µεταφέρει στην Κύπρο εντÞσ δύο εβδοµάδων Þλα τα χρήµατα που αποκτά απÞ εξαγωγέσ ή και απÞ την πώληση περιουσιακών στοιχείων που βρίσκονται εντÞσ Κύπρου εκτÞσ και εάν εξασφαλίσει προηγουµένωσ έγκριση απÞ την Επιτροπή. Το διάταγµα θα έχει ισχύ µιασ εβδοµάδασ µε δικαίωµα ανανέωσησ απÞ τον ΥπουργÞ Οικονοµικών Μιχάλη Σαρρή.
ŒÚ¯ÂÙ·È ÙÔ ¢¡∆ ÁÈ· ÙÔ Í¤Ï˘Ì· Eικοσαµελέσ κλιµάκιο του ∆ΝΤ βρίσκεται απÞ χθεσ το απÞγευµα στην Κύπρο µε στÞχο να αξιολογήσει τα πορίσµατα των εκθέσεων τησ Moneyval και τησ KPMG Λονδίνου Þσον αφορά στο ξέπλυµα µαύρου χρήµατοσ στην Κύπρο. Μoneyval και KPMG θα υποβάλουν να σηµειωθεί ξεχωριστέσ εκθέσεισ. Κυβέρνηση και εποπτικέσ αρχέσ εκφράζουν πεποίθηση Þτι οι έρευνεσ θα καταδείξουν Þτι κακώσ έβαλλαν κατά την Κύπρου οι Ευρωπαίοι εταίροι τησ αφού εφαρµÞζεται πλήρωσ η νοµοθεσίασ στη χώρα στα πρÞτυπα διεθνών κανονισµών.
A·ڈÛË Ù˘ ¤ÎıÂÛ˘ Savenergy ΛÞγω των τελευταίων εξελίξεων και του αρνητικού κλίµατοσ που επικρατεί στην αγορά η ΟΕΒ αποφάσισε Þπωσ οι εκθέσεισ SAVENERGY & ENVIROTEC 2013 που ήταν προγραµµατισµένεσ για τισ 5-7 Απριλίου ακυρώνονται. Νέα ηµεροµηνία πραγµατοποίησησ των εκθέσεων καθορίστηκε το Σαββατοκύριακο 20-22 Σεπτεµβρίου 2013.
∫ÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÔÈ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ Με απÞφαση τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ τησ Κύπρου Þλα τα τραπεζικά ιδρύµατα του νησιού θα παραµείνουν κλειστά και σήµερα Τετάρτη 27 Μαρτίου 2013. Η Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου αναίρεσε την τελευταία στιγµή απÞφασή τησ, η οποία έλεγε Þτι οι περισσÞτερεσ τράπεζεσ θα άνοιγαν εκ νέου την Τρίτη 26 Μαρτίου, Η Κεντρική Τράπεζα δήλωσε Þτι η απÞφαση αυτή ελήφθη για να διασφαλιστεί η «οµαλή λειτουργία του συνÞλου του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ». Οι τράπεζεσ που παραµένουν κλειστέσ απÞ τισ 15 Μαρτίου αναµένεται να ανοίξουν αύριο.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3
∫Ù›ÚÈÔ Ì ÈÛÙÔÚ›· = ÀÂÚ·Í›·; ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘
Επ’ ευκαιρίασ τησ επετείου του θανάτου του ΕυαγÞρα Παλληκαρίδη και σε σχέση µε την κατοικία που γεννήθηκε και µεγάλωσε, βρεθήκαµε προ διλήµµατοσ στην απαλλοτρίωση αυτήσ τησ κατοικίασ (για µετατροπή τησ σε Μουσείο) σε δικαστική διαµάχη που αφορούσε την αξία τησ. Η δική µασ θέση Þσον αφορά το ύψοσ τησ αποζηµίωσησ δεν διέφερε ουσιαστικά απÞ εκείνη τησ προσφοράσ του Κτηµατολογίου ωσ γη και κτίρια. Στην δική µασ Þµωσ εκτίµηση προσθέσαµε και ένα ελάχιστο ποσοστÞ 20% επαύξηση/υπεραξία λÞγω τησ ιστορικήσ σηµασίασ του κτιρίου. Θέσαµε λοιπÞν το ερώτηµα στο ∆ικαστήριο εάν ιστορικά κτίρια ή κτίρια µε ιστορία έχουν µια υπεραξία. Ωσ παράδειγµα παραθέσαµε το ερώτηµα τι είναι η αξία τησ κατοικίασ του Μακαρίου στην Παναγιά; Θα το προσέγγιζε κάποιοσ ωσ µια «σκέτη» κατοικία του χωριού ή µήπωσ κάποιοσ τρίτοσ είτε ιδιώτησ είτε σωµατεία/οργανώσεισ θα ήταν διατεθειµένοι να αυξήσουν την τιµή προσφοράσ λÞγω αυτού του δεδοµένου; Θέσαµε επίσησ το ερώτηµα γιατί η σουίτα του Churchill στο ξενοδοχείο Claridge Þπου ζούσε εκεί κατά την διάρκεια του Β’ παγκοσµίου πολέ-
µου, έχει µια εξαιρετικά ψηλή ζήτηση και µάλιστα λειτουργεί και ωσ µουσείο για τουρίστεσ/επισκέπτεσ µε ανάλογη χρέωση; Θέσαµε επίσησ το ερώτηµα γιατί ένα αρχαίο «αγγείο» να έχει µια αξία πέραν ενÞσ αγγείου που θα µπορούσε να αγοράσει κάποιοσ απÞ ένα σύνηθεσ εργαστήριο αγγειοπλαστικήσ; Υποβάλαµε επίσησ εάν π.χ. ο Κούλασ (το Κάστρο στο ΚολÞσσι) επωλείτο και δίπλα υπήρχε ένα νεÞκτιστο παρÞµοιο κάστρο πωλείτο, ποιο θα έχει την πιο ψηλή ζήτηση; Εκεί που είδαµε κάποιο φωσ στην σήραγγα να πείσουµε το ∆ικαστήριο για τισ δικέσ µασ θέσεισ, ξαφνικά και τελείωσ αψυχολÞγητα, οι νέοι ιδιοκτήτεσ τησ κατοικίασ (Þχι τησ οικογένειασ Παλληκαρίδη), αναφέρθηκαν στην δική τουσ µαρτυρία Þτι η «κατοικία είναι ένα παλιÞπραµα». Στο τέλοσ συµβιβαστήκαµε, αλλά χάθηκε η ευκαιρία να παρθεί µια απÞφαση επί τέτοιου ενδιαφέροντοσ θέµατοσ, έστω και εάν αυτή η απÞφαση θα ήταν σε ΕπαρχιακÞ ∆ικαστήριο. Κρίµα. Το θέµα Þµωσ παραµένει και είναι ιδιαίτερα ενδιαφέρον διÞτι άπτεται και πολλών άλλων θεµάτων που αφορούν κτίρια µε ιστορία, είτε προσωπική, είτε αρχιτεκτονική είτε άλλωσ πωσ. Επίσησ το ερώτηµα που τίθεται είναι τι ποσοστÞ υπεραξίασ θα πρέπει να υιοθετηθεί εάν ένα ∆ικαστήριο αποδεχθεί την πιο πάνω βάση (Þτι δηλαδή κτίρια µε ιστορία έχουν µια υπεραξία); Είναι θέµα γνώµησ και επιχειρηµατικÞτητασ µε ιδιαίτερη βαρύτητα ασφαλώσ στην άποψη του ∆ικαστηρίου. Είµεθα τησ άποψησ Þτι δεν µπορεί να υπάρξει ένα σταθερÞ ποσοστÞ υπεραξίασ και αυτÞ θα πρέπει να αντιµετωπίζεται ανάλογα µε την «ιστορικÞτητα» του κτιρίου. ΄Ισωσ στο πιο πάνω παράδειγµα
τησ κατοικίασ Μακαρίου το ποσοστÞ να είναι +100%, η άποψη µασ για την κατοικία Παλληκαρίδη 20% και ο αχερώνασ του Λιοπετρίου 50% κλπ. ΑπÞ την άλλη, γιατί το αρχαίο αγγείο να πωλείται έστω 20 φορέσ πιο ψηλά απÞ το κÞστοσ ενÞσ καινούργιου (δεν είναι ο µÞνοσ λÞγοσ, η ιστορικÞτητα του, που του προσθέτει µια υπεραξία;). Ασφαλώσ στο τέλοσ τησ ηµέρασ είναι το θέµα προσφοράσ και ζήτησησ και τούτο Þχι διÞτι υπάρχει υπέρµετρη ή ακÞµα ελάχιστη προσφορά τέτοιων κτιρίων Þπωσ είναι και η περιορισµένη µεν αλλά υπαρκτή ζήτηση. Πιστεύουµε Þτι στο στάδιο αυτÞ που υπάρχουν κάποιοι ενδιαφερÞµενοι τησ γενιάσ του 1950-1960 και/ή λάτρεισ τησ αρχαιολογίασ µε τα ανάλογα σωµατεία, η ζήτηση είναι υπαρκτή. ∆ύσκολο το εγχείρηµα τησ υποστήριξησ ή τησ απÞρριψησ τέτοιασ προσέγγισησ διÞτι, ίσωσ, η βάση να είναι µάλλον θεωρητική/ προσωπική απÞ την ευρύτερη ζήτηση τησ αγοράσ.
Ανταλλαγή Εκκλησιαστικήσ Γησ Σε ένα τελείωσ διαφορετικÞ θέµα πληροφορηθήκαµε µέσω του τύπου Þτι θα γίνει µεταβίβαση εκκλησιαστικήσ γησ στο Κράτοσ για µια συµφωνία που έγινε προ ετών για την πληρωµή των ιερέων. Είµεθα τησ άποψησ Þτι, ωσ έχει σήµερα το σύνταγµα, δεν µπορεί να απαλλοτριωθεί εκκλησιαστική γη (Þπωσ ούτε γη του Εφκαφ). Ωσ εκ τούτου και εάν γίνει αυτή η µεταβίβαση στισ Τ/Κ περιοχέσ, οι κατοχικέσ δυνάµεισ δεν θα έχουν καν αυτÞ τον περιορισµÞ στην κατάσχεση/απαλλοτρίωση τησ µέχρι τώρα εκκλησιαστικήσ γησ.
ÃÚÈÛÙÔÊ›‰Ë˜ Î·È ∞ÓÙˆÓÈ¿‰Ô˘ ÂȉÈÎÔ› ‰È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ÁÈ· ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Î·È §·˚΋ Η Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε στα πλαίσια των αρµοδιοτήτων τησ ωσ Αρχή Εξυγίανσησ, προχώρησε στον διορισµÞ του Ντίνο Χριστοφίδη ωσ Ειδικού ∆ιαχειριστή για την εκτέλεση των µέτρων εξυγίανσησ στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου. Ο κ. Χριστοφίδησ είναι Fellow Member του Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales και Fellow
Member του Chartered Institute of Bankers, µε 9 χρÞνια εµπειρίασ σε διεθνείσ εταιρείεσ λογιστών και 32 χρÞνια εµπειρίασ σε δύο διεθνείσ τράπεζεσ στην Κύπρο. Στο µεταξύ, η Κεντρική Τράπεζα είχε, επίσησ, ανακοινώσει, Þτι, στο πλαίσιο των αρµοδιοτήτων τησ ωσ Αρχή Εξυγίανσησ, έχει διορίσει την Άντρη Αντωνιάδου ωσ την Ειδική ∆ιαχειρίστρια για την εκτέλεση των µέτρων εξυγίανσησ στη
Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Η κ. Αντωνιάδου είναι µέλοσ του Ινστιτούτου Ορκωτών Λογιστών (Institute of Certified Chartered Accountants) µε 28 χρÞνια εµπειρία στον τραπεζικÞ τοµέα, εκ των οποίων 25 χρÞνια στην HSBC, τα τελευταία πέντε χρÞνια ωσ ∆ιευθύνοντασ Σύµβουλοσ και τρία χρÞνια ωσ Γενική ∆ιευθύντρια στην Εθνική Τράπεζα τησ Ελλάδοσ (Κύπρου).
∏¶∞: ™ËÌ·ÓÙÈ΋ Ë ÚÔÛÙ·Û›· ÙˆÓ ·ÛÊ·ÏÈÛÌ¤ÓˆÓ Î·Ù·ıÂÙÒÓ Είναι σηµαντικÞ το Þτι η συµφωνία για την Κύπρο «προστατεύει πλήρωσ τουσ ασφαλισµένουσ καταθέτεσ και ανακεφαλαιοποιεί τισ τράπεζεσ που αντιµετωπίζουν προβλήµατα», ανέφερε ο εκπρÞσωποσ το Λευκού Οίκου, Τζοσ Έρνεστ, Þταν ρωτήθηκε για τη θέση τησ αµερικανικήσ Κυβέρνησησ στο κούρεµα καταθετών µε χρήµατα άνω των 100.000 ευρώ. Ο εκπρÞσωποσ είπε Þτι καθώσ η αµερικανική Κυβέρνηση
στάθηκε στο πλευρÞ των εταίρων στην Ευρώπη, οι οποίοι διαχειρίζονταν τα θέµατα χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ αστάθειασ, «οι ανώτεροι αξιωµατούχοι του αµερικανικού υπουργείου Οικονοµικών ήταν το σηµείο αναφοράσ των επαφών των συναδέλφων τουσ». «Ο ΠρÞεδροσ µίλησε για τισ επιπτώσεισ που είχε αυτή η αστάθεια του χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατοσ τησ Ευρώπησ στην Αµερικανική οικονοµία. Για το λÞγο
∂ÓÙÔÏ‹ ÁÈ· ·Ó·‰È¿ÚıÚˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ‰·Ó›Ԣ ¤‰ˆÛÂ Ô ¶Ô‡ÙÈÓ Ο Ρώσοσ ΠρÞεδροσ Βλαντιµίρ Πούτιν έδωσε εντολή στην κυβέρνησή του να διαπραγµατευτεί την αναδιάρθρωση του υφιστάµενου ρωσικού δανείου διάσωσησ προσ την Κύπρο, δήλωσε ο εκπρÞσωποσ του Ρώσου Προέδρου Ντµίτρι ΠεσκÞφ H δήλωση αυτή σηµατοδοτεί την υποστήριξη τησ ΜÞσχασ στην ευρωπαϊκή συµφωνία διάσωσησ των 10 δισ ευρώ για την Κύπρο που επιτεύχθηκε κατά τη διάρκεια του Σαββατοκύριακου, παρά τισ ανησυχίεσ Þτι οι Ρώσοι καταθέτεσ στην Κύπρο θα υποστούν ζηµιέσ ωσ αποτέλεσµα αυτήσ τησ συµφωνίασ. Η Κύπροσ είχε ζητήσει την επιµήκυνση του υφιστάµενου ρωσικού δανείου ύψουσ 2,5 δισ ευρώ και µείωση του επιτοκίου σε 2,5% απÞ 4,5%. Οι συνοµιλίεσ την περασµένη εβδοµάδα δεν κατέστη δυνατÞν να οδηγηθούν σε συµφωνία Þσον αφορά την αναδιάρθρωση του δανείου.
∫ÏÂÈÛÙfi ·Ú·Ì¤ÓÂÈ ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Την αναστολή τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ και για σήµερα αποφάσισε το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο του Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου για σκοπούσ διασφάλισησ τησ καλήσ λειτουργίασ τησ αγοράσ του Χρηµατιστηρίου και για προστασία των επενδυτών. “Το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου (XAK), σε συνέχεια των ανακοινώσεων του µε ηµεροµηνία 19 και 21 Μαρτίου 2013, ανακοινώνει Þτι µε απÞφαση του Προέδρου του Συµβουλίου και του Γενικού ∆ιευθυντή του ΧΑΚ, που λήφθηκε σύµφωνα µε το άρθρο 183 των περί Αξιών και Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου ΝÞµων και η οποία επικυρώθηκε απÞ το Συµβούλιο του Χρηµατιστηρίου σε σηµερινή έκτακτη συνεδρία του, σύµ-
φωνα µε το άρθρο 184 του ΝÞµου και ενÞψει των εξελίξεων στην οικονοµία και τη συνέχιση τησ Τραπεζικήσ Αργίασ και για τισ 26 και 27/3/13, αποφασίστηκε η συνέχιση τησ αναστολήσ τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ Þλων των κινητών αξιών που είναι εισηγµένεσ στο Χρηµατιστήριο, για σκοπούσ διασφάλισησ τησ καλήσ λειτουργίασ τησ αγοράσ του Χρηµατιστηρίου και για προστασία των επενδυτών. Η απÞφαση αυτή λήφθηκε για τουσ ίδιουσ λÞγουσ οι οποίοι αναφέρονται αναλυτικά στισ ανακοινώσεισ του ΧΑΚ ηµεροµηνίασ 19 και 21 Μαρτίου 2013”, αναφέρεται σε σχετική ανακοίνωση του Χρηµατιστηρίου. Το Χρηµατιστήριο παρέµεινε και χθεσ Τρίτη κλειστÞ.
αυτÞ είχαµε εµπλοκή, επιχειρώντασ να βοηθήσουµε τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ να το λύσουν». Ο κ. Έρνεστ είπε Þτι δεν είχε να αναφέρει κάποιεσ τηλεφωνικέσ επικοινωνίεσ του Προέδρου Οµπάµα µε Ευρωπαίουσ ηγέτεσ, µετά τη συµφωνία, ωστÞσο γνωρίζει Þτι αριθµÞσ αξιωµατούχων του υπουργείου Οικονοµικών ήλθαν σε επαφή µε οµολÞγουσ τουσ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
™ÙÔ ·ÎÔ˘ÛÙÈÎfi ÔÈ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎÔ› ˘¿ÏÏËÏÔÈ √È ÂÏ¿Ù˜ ÛÙ· ÁÎÈÛ¤ ÌfiÓÔ ÁÈ· Ù· ··Ú·›ÙËÙ· Στο ακουστικÞ βρίσκονται οι τραπεζικοί υπάλληλοι αναµένοντασ εντολή για να επιστρέψουν στισ εργασίεσ τουσ µετά το κλείσιµο των τραπεζών απÞ την Παρασκευή 15 Μαρτίου. Η Ένωση Τραπεζικών Υπαλλήλων Κύπρου κάλεσε Þλουσ τουσ τραπεζικούσ υπάλληλουσ να είναι έτοιµοι να παρουσιασθούν στισ εργασίεσ τουσ µÞλισ αποφασισθεί το άνοιγµα των Τραπεζών ύστερα απÞ απÞφαση του ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ. Παράλληλα, απευθύνεται στουσ πολίτεσ που είναι πελάτεσ των Τραπεζών και να τουσ παρακαλεί µÞλισ ανοίξουν οι Τράπεζεσ να επιδείξουν κατανÞηση και υποµονή και να περιορίσουν την εξυπηρέτηση που θα ζητήσουν στα απαραίτητα αναγκαία, διÞτι έτσι θα διευκολυνθούν Þχι µÞνο οι ίδιοι αλλά και οι άλλοι πελάτεσ δίνοντασ την ευκαιρία στουσ υπαλλήλουσ να ανταποκριθούν στον υπερβολικÞ φÞρτο εργασίασ που θα παρουσιασθεί τισ πρώτεσ µέρεσ ανοίγµατοσ των Τραπεζών. Ανακοίνωση τησ ΕΤΥΚ αναφέρει Þτι «βρισκÞµαστε µπροστά στον οδυνηρÞ συµβιβασµÞ των Βρυξελλών προσθέτοντασ Þτι η αποξένωση των εργασιών των κυπριακών Τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα µε ένα κύκλο εργασιών ίδιο περίπου µε τησ Κύπρου, σηµαίνει Þτι περιορίζει το τραπεζικÞ µασ σύστηµα σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ, που ήταν εξ’ αρχήσ στÞχοσ τησ ΤρÞικασ. Σύµφωνα µε την ανακοίνωση, η Τράπεζα Κύπρου θα προχωρήσει σε κούρεµα Þλων των καταθέσεών τησ άνω των 100.000 ευρώ κατά 30% και αυτÞ δηµιουργεί συνθήκεσ επι-
ªÔ˘‰È·Ṳ̂ÓË Ë Î›ÓËÛË ÛÙ· Ú·Ù‹ÚÈ· η˘Û›ÌˆÓ Πεσµένη είναι η κίνηση στα πρατήρια καυσίµων απÞ το πρωί τησ ∆ευτέρασ, µε τον ΠρÞεδρο του Παγκυπρίου Συνδέσµου Πρατηριούχων Πετρελαιοειδών Κύπρου Στέφανο Στεφάνου να κάνει λÞγο για «µούδιασµα στην αγορά». O κ. Στεφάνου είπε επίσησ Þτι δεν υπάρχει θέµα έλλειψησ αποθεµάτων καυσίµων στα πρατήρια, καθώσ η προµήθεια απÞ τισ εταιρείεσ συνεχίζεται απρÞσκοπτα, Þµωσ γίνεται τοισ µετρητοίσ. Ο κÞσµοσ, είπε ο κ. Στεφάνου, έχει προµηθευτεί καύσιµα απÞ το Σαββατοκύριακο, και έχει περιορίσει τισ κινήσεισ του, ενώ παραµένει προβληµατισµένοσ, ενÞψει τησ επαναλειτουργίασ των τραπεζών, την Πέµπτη.
βίωσησ. Ùσον αφορά τη Λαϊκή, αναφέρει Þτι δυστυχώσ η Τράπεζα µέσα απÞ τη συµφωνία και κάτω απÞ το βάροσ των 9 δισ του ELA δεν έγινε κατορθωτÞ να συνεχίσει τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ τησ µε τη µέχρι τώρα µορφή τησ και θα µετατραπεί σε ΚΑΛΗ και ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεζα. “Η Οργάνωσή µασ θέλει να πληροφορήσει Þλουσ τουσ συναδέλφουσ τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ Þτι οφείλουν στο σύνολο τουσ, Þπωσ και οι συνάδελφοι των άλλων Τραπεζών, µÞλισ ανοίξουν οι Τράπεζεσ, να προσέλθουν στισ εργασίεσ τουσ. Κανένασ υπάλληλοσ δεν έχει απολυθεί επειδή δηµιουργήθηκε και ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεζα” προσθέτει. Σηµειώνει ακÞµη Þτι σε παρÞµοιεσ πρÞσφατεσ περιπτώσεισ που η ΤρÞικα επέβαλε ΚΑΛΗ και ΚΑΚΗ Τράπεζα, κανένασ συνάδελφοσ δεν απολύθηκε, π.χ. στην Ελλάδα η Αγροτική Τράπεζα µετατράπηκε σε ΚΑΚΗ και ΚΑΛΗ Τράπεζα και η ΚΑΛΗ ενσωµατώθηκε στην Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ. Το ίδιο έγινε και µε το ΤαχυδροµικÞ Ταµιευτήριο. Ùπωσ δήλωσε χθεσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ΕΤΥΚ Λοϊζοσ Χατζηκωστήσ, οι ανησυχίεσ των τραπεζικών υπαλλήλων για το θέµα των Ταµείων Προνοίασ έχουν καταλαγιάσει, µετά το διάγγελµα του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκου Αναστασιάδη. «Νοµίζω Þτι έχουν καταλαγιάσει» οι ανησυχίεσ, δήλωσε ο κ. Χατζηκωστήσ, ενώ επανέλαβε Þτι δεν θα επιτρέψουν να γίνουν απολύσεισ. Ερωτηθείσ αν θα έχουν ωσ ΕΤΥΚ οποιεσδήποτε επαφέσ,
ακÞµη, και µε τον ΠρÞεδρο Αναστασιάδη, ο κ. Χατζηκωστήσ είπε πωσ προβαίνουν σε επαφέσ. «Πιστεύουµε Þτι δεν θα γίνουν απολύσεισ. Και δεν θα επιτρέψουµε να γίνουν απολύσεισ», συµπλήρωσε. ∆ήλωσε, παράλληλα, Þτι στην περίπτωση που ανακοινωθούν απολύσεισ οι τραπεζοϋπάλληλοι θα προχωρήσουν σε απεργία. Κληθείσ να σχολιάσει δηµοσιεύµατα Þτι γίνονταν αναλήψεισ κεφαλαίων, ενώ ήταν κλειστέσ οι τράπεζεσ, ο κ. Χατζηκωστήσ είπε Þτι αν έχουν γίνει τέτοιεσ µεταφορέσ, απÞ την στιγµή που είχαν µπλοκαριστεί οι λογαριασµοί στισ Τράπεζεσ, τÞτε να ερευνηθεί και το θέµα αυτÞ. Τέλοσ, ο κ. Χατζηκωστήσ συνέστησε υποµονή σε Þλουσ «για να ξεφύγουµε απÞ αυτÞ το αδιέξοδο», Þπωσ είπε.
KÚÔ˘·˙ÈÂÚfiÏÔÈ· ·fi ÙÔ πÛÚ·‹Ï ÛÙËÓ §¿Úӷη O ∆ήµοσ Λάρνακασ και η Εταιρεία Τουριστικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ Λάρνακασ χαιρετίζουν την προσθήκη καινούριου δροµολογίου απÞ την αεροπορική εταιρεία EasyJet απÞ το Μιλάνο προσ το αεροδρÞµιο Λάρνακασ. Η νέα απευθείασ πτήση αρχίζει στισ 27 Μαρτίου 2013 και θα πραγµατοποιείται δύο φορέσ την εβδοµάδα. Η εξέλιξη αυτή διανοίγει νέεσ προοπτικέσ για αύξηση του τουριστικού ρεύµατοσ απÞ την Ιταλία προσ την πÞλη του Ζήνωνα και προσ την Κύπρο γενικÞτερα. ΣυγχρÞνωσ, νέα δροµολÞγια αναµένονται το προσεχέσ διάστηµα προσ το αεροδρÞµιο Λάρνακασ απÞ προορισµούσ τησ Ανατολικήσ Ευρώπησ και αυτÞ οφείλεται κυρίωσ στισ προσπάθειεσ τησ Hermes Airports για προσέλκυση νέων αερογραµµών, τουσ οποίουσ και συγχαίρουµε για τισ στοχευµένεσ πολιτικέσ που εφαρµÞζουν και που φαίνεται να αποφέρουν απτά αποτελέσµατα. Παράλληλα, θετική εξέλιξη αποτελεί και η έναρξη αφίξε-
ων κρουαζιεροπλοίων απÞ το Ισραήλ προσ το Λιµάνι Λάρνακασ. Τα υπÞ αναφορά δροµολÞγια θα πραγµατοποιούνται απÞ το τέλοσ Μαρτίου µέχρι το τέλοσ Οκτωβρίου 2013 σε εβδοµαδιαία βάση ενώ ορισµένα δροµολÞγια περιλαµβάνουν και διανυκτέρευση στη Λάρνακα. ΤÞσο ο ∆ήµοσ Λάρνακασ Þσο και η Εταιρεία Τουριστικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ Λάρνακασ είναι σε επαφή µε τισ αρχέσ του Λιµανιού Λάρνακασ ώστε να υπάρχει συντονισµÞσ για την καλύτερη δυνατή εξυπηρέτηση των τουριστών µε την παροχή ενηµερωτικού υλικού καθώσ µε την διευθέτηση τησ µεταφοράσ τουσ προσ το κέντρο τησ πÞλησ µε αστικά λεωφορεία. Σ’ αυτέσ τισ πολύ δύσκολεσ οικονοµικέσ συνθήκεσ που διανύουµε αναµένεται Þτι ο τουρισµÞσ θα βοηθήσει σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ στη στήριξη τησ τοπικήσ οικονοµίασ και γι’ αυτÞ ιδιαίτερη έµφαση θα πρέπει να δοθεί στον εν λÞγω τοµέα απÞ το κράτοσ και απÞ Þλουσ τουσ υπÞλοιπουσ εµπλεκÞµενουσ φορείσ.
ªÂÙ¿ ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Ë ™ÏÔ‚ÂÓ›·; Η Σλοβενία µπορεί να είναι η επÞµενη χώρα στη σειρά που θα αποταθεί στην ΕΕ για διάσωση, µετά την Κύπρο, σύµφωνα µε δηµοσίευµα του ιταλικού πρακτορείου ειδήσεων ANSAmed, επικαλούµενο πρÞσφατη έκθεση τησ Επιτροπήσ κατά τησ ∆ιαφθοράσ τησ Σλοβενίασ. «Κατά την τελευταία δεκαετία, κορυφαίεσ τράπεζεσ τησ Σλοβενίασ παρείχαν τεράστια ποσά σε πιστώσεισ που τώρα
είναι τοξικέσ και οι οποίεσ αντιστοιχούν στο ένα πέµπτο του εθνικού ΑΕΠ» αναφέρεται στην έκθεση. Προστίθεται Þτι οι σχετικέσ αποφάσεισ λήφθηκαν «στη βάση πολιτικών και προσωπικών σχέσεων, εν µέσω ενÞσ περιβάλλοντοσ διαρθρωτικήσ πολιτικήσ διαφθοράσ». Οι περισσÞτερεσ τράπεζεσ στη Σλοβενία είναι κρατικήσ ιδιοκτησίασ, προστίθεται στην ανταπÞκριση του ANSAmed,
µÁÂÓfiÔ˘ÏÔ˜: §¿ıÔ˜ ÁÈÁ·ÓÙÈ·›ˆÓ ‰È·ÛÙ¿ÛÂˆÓ Ë ‰È¿Û·ÛË Ù˘ §·˚΋˜ «Η διάσπαση τησ Λαϊκήσ ώστε να προστατευθούν για µια ακÞµη φορά τα τεράστια συµφέροντα που κρύβονται πίσω απÞ την Τράπεζα Κύπρου είναι ένα λάθοσ γιγαντιαίων διαστάσεων που θα πλήξει βάναυσα την κυπριακή οικονοµία και κοινωνία», σύµφωνα µε τον πρώην µη εκτελεστικÞ πρÞεδροσ τησ Marfin - Λαϊκή Ανδρέα ΒγενÞπουλο. Ο κ. ΒγενÞπουλοσ µίλησε «για παράνοµεσ ενέργειεσ και ευθύνεσ ενÞσ διαπλεκÞµενου πολιτικοοικονοµικού κατεστηµένου που πολέµησε λυσσαλέα την εξυγίανση, διαφάνεια και ισονοµία που προσπάθησε να φέρει η Marfin Populal Bank στην Κύπρο». Ο κ. ΒγενÞπουλοσ αναφέρει στην ανακοίνωση του Þτι «πριν απÞ 17 περίπου µήνεσ αντικαταστάθηκε βίαια και παράνοµα η ∆ιοίκηση τησ Marfin Populal Bank, η οποία είχε εκλεγεί απÞ τουσ ιδιώτεσ µετÞχουσ
τησ. την περίοδο που ακολούθησε, την Τράπεζα, που µε δηµÞσιουσ πανηγυρισµούσ ‘ξανάγινε κυπριακή’ και µετονοµάσθηκε σε Λαϊκή, διοίκησαν οι εκλεκτοί τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ οι οποίοι και µε τισ αντιεπαγγελµατικέσ πράξεισ και παραλείψεισ τουσ τη διέλυσαν». Αναφέρει Þτι «η ∆ιοίκηση, τησ οποίασ υπήρξα µη ΕκτελεστικÞσ ΠρÞεδροσ παρέδωσε µια υγιή Τράπεζα µε καταθέσεισ 20,2 δισ ευρώ, επιτοκιακά έσοδα 799 εκ. ευρώ, οργανική προ προβλέψεων κερδοφορία 388 εκ. ευρώ (2011) και ELA περίπου 3 δισ ευρώ. Μέσα σε 17 µήνεσ η κρατική πλέον Λαϊκή επιδείνωσε δραµατικά τα αποτελέσµατά τησ και παρά την υποτιθέµενη «σιγουριά» του κρατικού τησ χαρακτήρα µείωσε ραγδαία τισ καταθέσεισ τησ και ανέβασε τη χρήση του ELA σε πάνω απÞ 9 δισ. ευρώ».
ενώ αναφέρεται Þτι το τοξικÞ χρέοσ που έχει συσσωρευτεί, υπολογίζεται σε 7 δισ ευρώ, ή ποσοστÞ 20% του συνÞλου των δανείων. Ο πρώην ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τησ χώρασ Janez Sustercic δήλωσε Þτι η Σλοβενία θα αναγκαστεί πιθανÞτατα να προσφύγει για διεθνή βοήθεια, εκτÞσ και αν υλοποιηθεί το σχέδιο διάσωσησ για τισ τράπεζεσ.
√ÈÎÔÓÔÌÈ΋ ·ÛÊ˘Í›· Ï‹ÙÙÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜ ¢‹ÌÔ˘˜ Ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Λευκωσίασ Κωνσταντίνοσ Γιωρκάτζησ καλεί την Κυβέρνηση και την Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου να εξαιρέσουν απÞ το κούρεµα των καταθετών τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ και τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, τουσ ∆ήµουσ. Το µεγαλύτερο µερίδιο των καταθέσεων του ∆ήµου Λευκωσίασ βρίσκονται στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα και την Τράπεζα Κύπρου ανέφερε, και αφού πρÞσθεσε Þτι η απÞφαση του Eurogroup οδηγεί σε οικονοµική ασφυξία το ∆ήµο τησ Πρωτεύουσασ, ανακοίνωσε Þτι ο ∆ήµοσ προετοιµάζει Έκτακτο Σχέδιο ∆ράσησ και ΡευστÞτητασ για περίοδο ενÞσ µηνÞσ. Ο κ. Γιωρκάτζησ τÞνισε Þτι τυχÞν αντιµετώπιση των ∆ήµων ωσ απλών καταθετώνεπενδυτών και τυχÞν άρνηση ή καθυστέρηση να διασφαλιστεί η ρευστÞτητα τουσ θα
έχει ωσ αποτέλεσµα την πιθανή θυµατοποίηση των εργαζοµένων στο ∆ήµο λÞγω τησ µη έγκαιρησ καταβολήσ τησ µισθοδοσίασ. ΠρÞσθεσε Þτι επιπλέον θα τεθεί σε κίνδυνο η ασφάλεια και η υγεία των δηµοτών λÞγω τησ αδυναµίασ να καλυφθούν τα λειτουργικά έξοδα των συνεργείων αποκοµιδήσ σκυβάλων και τησ διαχείρισησ του σκυβαλÞτοπου Κοτσιάτη, επειδή η συντήρηση δρÞµων, φώτων τροχαίασ ανά το παγκύπριο αλλά και η άρση επικινδυνÞτητασ ετοιµÞρροπων οικοδοµών καθίσταται πλέον εξαιρετικά δύσκολη και αµφίβολη. Ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Λευκωσίασ ανέφερε ακÞµα Þτι τα αναπτυξιακά έργα απειλούνται µε ακύρωση, αφού η συνεισφορά του ∆ήµου στα έργα έχει σήµερα παγοποιηθεί και µεγάλο µέροσ τησ κινδυνεύει να απολεσθεί.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5
¶ÔÈÓÈÎÔ‡˜ ·Ó·ÎÚÈÙ¤˜ ı· ‰ÈÔÚ›ÛÂÈ Ô ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜ Η διασφάλιση των ταµείων προνοίασ στισ τράπεζεσ, αλλά και ο διορισµÞσ ποινικών ανακριτών τισ αµέσωσ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ για αναζήτηση και απονοµή ευθυνών, σχετικά µε την κατάσταση στην οποία περιήλθε η Κύπροσ, ήταν τα δύο βασικά µηνύµατα του προέδρου Νίκου Αναστασιάδη στο διάγγελµα του προσ τον κυπριακÞ λαÞ. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ εξήγγειλε, Þτι το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο θα διορίσει ποινικούσ ανακριτέσ για αναζήτηση και απονοµή ευθυνών, ενώ περιγράφοντασ τισ «δραµατικέσ ώρεσ» στισ Βρυξέλλεσ, είπε Þτι η Κύπροσ «βρέθηκε µια ανάσα πριν απÞ την οικονοµική κατάρρευση». Παράλληλα δεσµεύτηκε πωσ η Κυβέρνηση θα προχωρήσει άµεσα σε εκείνεσ τησ ενέργειεσ προκειµένου να διασφαλιστούν τα Ταµεία Προνοίασ των επηρεαζÞµενων τραπεζών (Κύπρου και Λαικήσ). Οι επιλογέσ µασ δεν ήταν εύκολεσ, ούτε το περιβάλλον το ιδανικÞτερο. Ùµωσ µε σκληρή διαπραγµάτευση, µε επιµονή, αλλά και µε συναίσθηµα ευθύνησ φτάσαµε σε ένα αποτέλεσµα που διασφαλίζει τισ προοπτικέσ τησ χώρασ, τÞνισε. Τισ τελευταίεσ µέρεσ, είπε, η κατάσταση τησ οικονοµίασ και του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ επιδεινώθηκε δραµατικά µε αποτέλεσµα
τη σύγκληση στισ Βρυξέλλεσ του έκτακτου Eurogroup, µε απώτερο στÞχο την επίτευξη δανειακήσ σύµβασησ και την έγκριση προγράµµατοσ διάσωσησ. «Σε αντίθετη περίπτωση θα οδηγούµασταν στην κατάρρευση και τη χρεοκοπία του κράτουσ», σηµείωσε. «Η συµφωνία στην οποία καταλήξαµε είναι οδυνηρή, αλλά υπÞ τισ περιστάσεισ η καλύτερη που θα µπορούσαµε να εξασφαλίσουµε», τÞνισε και επεσήµανε Þτι µε τη συµφωνία ξεπερνιέται οριστικά ο κίνδυνοσ χρεοκοπίασ τησ Κύπρου και αποτρέπονται οι τραγικέσ συνέπειεσ στην οικονοµία και την κοινωνία. Το τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα θα σταθεροποιηθεί. Ùπωσ τÞνισε ο ΠρÞεδροσ Αναστασιάδησ, αρχίζει µια νέα περίοδοσ για την Κύπρο, προειδοποιώντασ παράλληλα Þτι «τισ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ θα αρχίσουν να εφαρµÞζονται δύσκολεσ αποφάσεισ. Στην κατάσταση που βρεθήκαµε δεν υπήρχαν και δεν υπάρχουν εύκολεσ λύσεισ. Ήµουν υποχρεωµένοσ να πάρω δύσκολεσ, οδυνηρέσ αλλά και τολµηρέσ αποφάσεισ προκειµένου να διασφαλίσω ένα διαχειρίσιµο αύριο». Ανέφερε Þτι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα διασφαλίζει πλέον τη ρευστÞτητα του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ και Þτι µέσα απÞ τη δανειακή σύµβαση επιτυγχάνουµε την
√ ¶Úfi‰ÚÔ˜ Ù˘ ¢ËÌÔÎÚ·Ù›·˜ ‰ÂÛ̇ÙËΠˆ˜ Ë ∫˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË ı· ÚÔ¯ˆÚ‹ÛÂÈ ¿ÌÂÛ· Û ÂΛӘ Ù˘ ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂȘ ÚÔÎÂÈ̤ÓÔ˘ Ó· ‰È·ÛÊ·ÏÈÛÙÔ‡Ó Ù· ∆·Ì›· ¶ÚÔÓÔ›·˜ ÙˆÓ ÂËÚ·˙fiÌÂÓˆÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Î·È §·˚΋˜ άντληση δέκα δισεκατοµµυρίων ευρώ, γεγονÞσ που αποδεικνύει Þτι αποκαθιστούµε την αξιοπιστία µασ, αλλά και αποτελεί έµπρακτη
απÞδειξη Þτι οι δανειστέσ µασ εµπιστεύονται τη δηµιουργικÞτητα του λαού µασ και τισ προοπτικέσ τησ οικονοµίασ µασ.
ºÚ¤ÓÔ ÛÙËÓ ¯Ú‹ÛË ÈÛÙˆÙÈÎÒÓ Î·ÚÙÒÓ ‚¿˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ÂȯÂÈÚ‹ÛÂȘ ∆εν µπορούν να γίνουν οι πληρωµέσ των επιχειρήσεων ούτε και οι πληρωµέσ προσ τουσ εργαζÞµενουσ στο τέλοσ του µήνα λÞγω του κλεισίµατοσ των τραπεζών, δηλώνει η Οργάνωση Εργοδοτών και Βιοµηχάνων (ΟΕΒ), καλώντασ Κυβέρνηση και Κεντρική να ανοίξει τισ τράπεζεσ, αφού κάθε µέρα που περνά η ζηµιά στισ επιχειρήσεισ και την οικονοµία αυξάνεται. Την ίδια ώρα συστήνει στουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ να λάβουν τα µέτρα τουσ προσ αντιµετώπιση τησ νέασ κατάστασησ πραγµάτων και στον κÞσµο να είναι ψύχραιµοσ και να κάνει υποµονή. Σε δηλώσεισ του ο ΒοηθÞσ ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ ΟΕΒ Κωνσταντίνοσ Χριστοφίδησ
και ερωτηθείσ πώσ θα επηρεάσει το κλείσιµο των τραπεζών την πληρωµή µισθών και υποχρεώσεων απÞ επιχειρήσεισ στο τέλοσ του µήνα, είπε Þτι «σίγουρα οι πληρωµέσ των επιχειρήσεων δεν µπορούν να γίνουν, ούτε βέβαια και οι πληρωµέσ στουσ εργαζÞµενουσ και αυτÞ δηµιουργεί πολλά άλλα προβλήµατα στην κοινωνία και στην οικονοµία». Ανέφερε ακÞµη Þτι γίνονται συνεχείσ συσκέψεισ για το πώσ θα αντιµετωπιστεί η κατάσταση που επικρατεί. «Ετοιµάζουµε τώρα άλλη µια σύσκεψη για να δούµε τισ διαδικασίεσ που αναµένουµε να καθορίσει η Κεντρική Τράπεζα», είπε. Ερωτηθείσ ο κ. Χριστοφίδησ είπε Þτι η ΟΕΒ έχει επικοινωνήσει µε την Κεντρική,
Moody’s: ∂‡ıÚ·˘ÛÙË Ë ÂÌÈÛÙÔÛ‡ÓË ÙˆÓ Î·Ù·ıÂÙÒÓ Σηµαντική συρρίκνωση του κυπριακού τραπεζικού τοµέα αναµένει ο οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ Moody’s, σύµφωνα µε έκθεση του µε τίτλο «Η κρίση τησ Κύπρου είναι αρνητική πιστωτικά για τα κράτη τησ Ευρωζώνησ». H Κύπροσ µετά το τέλοσ των διαπραγµατεύσεων για το πακέτο στήριξησ απÞ τα κράτη τησ Ευρωζώνησ (ΤρÞικα), θα συνεχίσει να αντιµετωπίζει σηµαντική πίεση στην ποιÞτητα του ενεργητικού του τραπεζικού τοµέα και τησ ρευστÞτητασ, καθώσ η οικονοµία συνεχίζει να συρρικνώνεται και η εµπιστοσύνη των καταθετών παραµένει εύθραυστη. Επιπλέον, το τραπεζικÞ επιχειρηµατικÞ µοντέλο και το προφίλ του κυπριακού συστήµατοσ, ωσ κέντρο υπεράκτιων εταιρειών, είναι απίθανο να επιβιώσει απÞ την κρίση», σηµειώνει. «Αναµένουµε το µέγεθοσ του τραπεζικού τοµέα τησ Κύπρου να συρρικνωθεί σηµαντικά.Το σύνολο του τραπεζικού τοµέα τησ Κύπρου ανερχÞταν στο 697% του ΑΕΠ στο τέλοσ του 2011, σε σύγκριση µε µέσο Þρο 354% στην ΕΕ», προσθέτει. Οι Moody’s αναφέρουν επίσησ Þτι «η προθυµία των πολιτικών να επιβάλουν απώλειεσ στουσ καταθέτεσ και ο κίνδυνοσ διακοπήσ τησ χρηµατοδÞτησησ του συστήµατοσ, προκειµένου να περιοριστεί το συνολικÞ κÞστοσ διάσωσησ για µια κυβέρνηση που το χρέοσ τησ θεωρείται µη βιώσιµο, είναι πιστωτικά αρνητικά για τα ανώτερα πιστωτικά ιδρύµατα σε ολÞκληρη τη ζώνη του ευρώ».
∂Ú·ÛÈÙ¯ÓÈΤ˜ ÎÈÓ‹ÛÂȘ ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ Â˘Úˆ·›Ô˘˜ ËÁ¤Ù˜ Ùπωσ και µετά την πρώτη απορριφθείσα συµφωνία του Eurogroup έτσι και τώρα στη Βρετανία, µετά τισ πρώτεσ αντιδράσεισ και έντονεσ επικρίσεισ κατά τησ ευρωζώνησ και τησ τρÞικα για τισ εξελίξεισ στην Κύπρο, εµφανίζονται αναλυτέσ που υπερασπίζονται τη συµφωνία, έστω και αν παραµένουν η µειοψηφία. Μετά τον πρωθυπουργÞ Ντέιβιντ Κάµερον που χαρακτήρισε καλή εξέλιξη την επίτευξη συµφωνίασ για την Κύπρο, εκφράζοντασ τη χαρά του για την εξαίρεση των µικροκαταθετών, υπάρχουν αναλυτέσ που σχολιάζουν χαρακτηριστικά Þτι η κατάσταση στην οποία έχει περιέλθει το νησί δεν οφείλεται στη γερµανική «βαρβαρÞτητα», αλλά «στην ανευθυνÞτητα των ηγεσιών του». Στο κύριο άρθρο τουσ οι Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµσ, που έχουν τηρήσει εξαιρετικά επικριτική στάση απέναντι στουσ Ευρωπαίουσ εταίρουσ, σχολιάζουν Þτι «αν και λίγοι θα συµφωνήσουν στην Κύπρο, το νησί πήρε την καλύτερη συµφωνία που δικαιούταν να περιµένει». Το άρθρο εξηγεί Þτι η Κύπροσ επέλεξε την υψηλού ρίσκου στρατηγική να ζει εξαρτώµενο απÞ έναν τραπεζιτικÞ τοµέα πολύ µεγαλύτερο απÞ Þσο µπορούσε να στηρίξει το κράτοσ.
απÞ την οποία έλαβαν την απάντηση Þτι προετοιµάζονται τα τελικά σηµεία των διαδικασιών. ΠιθανÞν, ανέφερε, «να έχουµε µια συνάντηση µαζί τουσ αύριο το απÞγευµα, για να δούµε τι τελικά θα έχουν καθορίσει τÞσο για τισ δύο τράπεζεσ – Κύπρου και Λαϊκή – Þσο και για τα άλλα τραπεζικά ιδρύµατα». Ερωτηθείσ κατά πÞσο είναι υπÞψη του πληροφορίεσ Þτι αριθµÞσ εµπορευÞµενων δεν αποδέχεται πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ, ο κ. Χριστοφίδησ παραδέχθηκε Þτι «αυξάνεται ο αριθµÞσ των επιχειρήσεων που δεν δέχονται τισ πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ», προσθέτοντασ ωστÞσο Þτι «δεν είναι Þλοι, είναι ένασ µικρÞσ αριθµÞσ επιχειρήσεων που δεν δέχονται πλέον πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ και ο λÞγοσ είναι
Þτι οι προµηθευτέσ τουσ, τούσ ζητούν πλέον µετρητά». Ωσ προσ τισ επιχειρήσεισ, τισ κάλεσε «να λάβουν άµεσα τα µέτρα που χρειάζονται για να µπορέσουν να αντιµετωπίσουν τα νέα δεδοµένα». Κληθείσ να είναι πιο συγκεκριµένοσ, έκανε λÞγο για περισυλλογή, σωστέσ και έξυπνεσ επενδύσεισ και τη διερεύνηση στρατηγικών συνεργασιών. Τέλοσ, συνέστησε στουσ πολίτεσ να είναι ψύχραιµοι και να κάνουν υποµονή.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
6 | EI∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
∏ ‰È¿Û·ÛË Ù˘ Â˘Úˆ˙ÒÓ˘ ÏËÛÈ¿˙ÂÈ ... Κατά την διάρκεια των τελευταίων οκτώ µηνών προτού ξεσπάσει πλήρωσ η κρίση στην Κύπρο, διάφοροι άνθρωποι µου υπενθύµιζαν διαρκώσ, συχνά µε ένα χαµÞγελο, τισ προβλέψεισ που είχα κάνει στα τέλη Νοεµβρίου του 2011. Είχα δηλώσει, Þτι οι ηγέτεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ είχαν 10 µέρεσ για να σώσουν το ευρώ. Είχα κάνει και µία παρÞµοια, αν και λιγÞτερο δραµατική, πρÞβλεψη το 2006 Þταν είχα γράψει Þτι η κυβέρνηση του Ροµάνο ΠρÞντι ήταν η τελευταία ευκαιρία τησ Ιταλίασ να επιτύχει µία βιώσιµη θέση στην ευρωζώνη. Η κυβέρνηση του κ. ΠρÞντι δεν το πέτυχε αυτÞ. Σήµερα, το 2013, το ευρώ είναι ακÞµα εδώ, η Ιταλία είναι ακÞµα στο ευρώ –και εγώ εξακολουθώ να κάνω προβλέψεισ. Θα συνεχίσω να ρισκάρω απτÞητοσ και πάλι. Μια ευρωζώνη που αποτελείται απÞ χώρεσ τÞσο διαφορετικέσ Þσο η Γερµανία και η Κύπροσ δεν είναι βιώσιµη, ακÞµα και αν η ΕΕ και η Κύπροσ καταφέρουν να καταλήξουν σε συµβιβασµÞ τησ τελευταίασ στιγµήσ. Μία λειτουργική τραπεζική ένωση που θα περιλάµβανε την κοινή εποπτεία, την ασφάλεια καταθέσεων και ένα µηχανισµÞ συντεταγµένησ διάλυσησ τραπεζών, θα πληρούσε τισ ελάχιστεσ προϋποθέσεισ για τη διάσωση ενÞσ νοµισµατικού συστήµατοσ ενάντια στισ πιθανÞτητεσ. Σίγουρα, θα έλυνε τα προβλήµατα των κυπριακών τραπεζών. Ùµωσ η ευρωζώνη δεν διαθέτει µία τέτοια τραπεζική ένωση. Και δεν πρÞκειται να διαθέτει µία τέτοια τραπεζική ένωση ούτε σε πέντε χρÞνια. Η Γερµανία την απορρίπτει εξ’ ολοκλήρου µε την αιτιολογία Þτι είναι πολύ ακριβή για το γερµανÞ φορολογούµενο. Κατά ειρωνικÞ τρÞπο, η Κύπροσ θα την απέρριπτε επίσησ καθώσ θα κατέστρεφε το επιχειρηµατικÞ τησ µοντέλο
ωσ offshore κέντρο για ξένεσ καταθέσεισ. Ùποιο είδοσ τραπεζικήσ ένωσησ και αν προκύψει στο τέλοσ, σίγουρα δεν θα έχει σχέση µε την παρούσα κρίση. Τα Þσα συνέβησαν στην Κύπρο την τελευταία βδοµάδα δεν προκλήθηκαν εξ’ ολοκλήρου απÞ κάτι συγκεκριµένο. Αποτελούν ωστÞσο το τέλειο παράδειγµα του προβλήµατοσ συλλογικήσ δράσησ τησ ευρωζώνησ. Αυτή η τελευταία κλιµάκωση, ξεκίνησε µε την επικίνδυνη συµφωνία διάσωσησ (bail-in) στουσ ασφαλισµένουσ καταθέτεσ. Οι αξιωµατούχοι τησ ευρωζώνησ είναι τÞσο νοµικά Þσο και οικονοµικά αµÞρφωτοι. Η λαµπρή τουσ ιδέα δεν ήταν για κούρεµα των ασφαλισµένων καταθέσεων κάτω των 100.000 ευρώ , αλλά ουσιαστικά για επιβολή φÞρου σε αυτέσ τισ καταθέσεισ. ∆εν συνειδητοποίησαν Þτι αν πάρουν πίσω την υπÞσχεση που εµπεριέχεται στην ασφάλιση των καταθέσεων, αυτÞ αποτελεί αθέτηση, και διακινδυνεύουν να ξεκινήσουν τραπεζικÞ πανικÞ. Το κυπριακÞ κοινοβούλιο είχε φυσικά κάθε δικαίωµα να απορρίψει αυτή την τρελή συµφωνία. ΩστÞσο, η κυπριακή κυβέρνηση πραγµατοποίησε στη συνέχεια τρεισ διαδοχικέσ γκάφεσ. Η πρώτη ήταν η απÞφαση του Προέδρου Νίκου Αναστασιάδη να ζητήσει βοήθεια απÞ τη Ρωσία. Αντί να συνεργαστεί µε την ευρωζώνη, εργάστηκε εναντίον τησ. Οι Γερµανοί, ειδικÞτερα, το εξέλαβαν αυτÞ ωσ µία απροκάλυπτα εχθρική κίνηση. Αποδείχθηκε επίσησ επιπÞλαια, καθώσ οι Ρώσοι απέρριψαν την προσφορά. Η δεύτερη γκάφα ήταν η απÞφαση να µην επικοινωνήσουν µε τουσ υπουργούσ Οικονοµικών τησ Ευρώπησ και του Eurogroup για τρεισ κρίσιµεσ ηµέρεσ την περασµένη εβδοµάδα. Η
τρίτη γκάφα ήταν η πρÞταση τησ κυπριακήσ κυβέρνηση την Πέµπτη για τη δηµιουργία ενÞσ κρατικού επενδυτικού ταµείου που θα στηριζÞταν απÞ επιδροµέσ στο ταµείο συντάξεων και άλλα κρατικά περιουσιακά στοιχεία. Η πρÞταση αυτή απορρίφθηκε ταχύτατα απÞ την Άνγκελα Μέρκελ την Παρασκευή. ΑυτÞ που συνέβη την περασµένη εβδοµάδα είναι ένα ταιριαστÞ παράδειγµα των Ευρωπαίων πολιτικών ηγετών και τησ πραγµατικά αντιεπαγγελµατικήσ επιδίωξησ των στενών εθνικών συµφερÞντων τουσ, αποτυγχάνοντασ να υπερασπιστούν το κοινÞ καλÞ. Ο κύριοσ κίνδυνοσ που θέλω να τονίσω, ωστÞσο, δεν είναι ο κίνδυνοσ κάποιου µεγάλου «ατυχήµατοσ». ΑυτÞ µπορεί να συµβεί φυσικά. Αλλά υποψιάζοµαι Þτι ο µεγαλύτεροσ κίνδυνοσ προέρχεται τελικά απÞ τα επανειληµµένα λάθη πολιτικήσ τησ ευρωζώνησ. Οι επιπτώσεισ τουσ είναι αργέσ, αλλά αθροιστικέσ. ΑπÞ αυτέσ τισ πολιτικέσ, η πιο καταστροφική ήταν η πολιτική τησ ασύµµετρησ ρύθµισησ µέσω τησ λιτÞτητασ. Οι τράπεζεσ στην Κύπρο χρεοκοπούν τώρα, µετά τα προβλήµατα των ελληνικών τραπεζών και του ελληνικού κράτουσ, και επειδή η ευρωζώνη εξανάγκασε τη συµµετοχή του ιδιωτικού τοµέα. Στην Ιταλία, η λιτÞτητα ήταν αυτή που µετέτρεψε την κρίση σε µεγάλη ύφεση. Στη συνέχεια, αυτÞ οδήγησε στο να µετατραπεί ένα κίνηµα ενάντια στο κατεστηµένο και στο ευρώ, σε ένα απÞ τα µεγαλύτερα πολιτικά κÞµµατα στο ιταλικÞ κοινοβούλιο κατά τισ τελευταίεσ εκλογέσ. Κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα, ο ηγέτησ του κÞµµατοσ, Μπέπε Γκρίλο, θα µπορούσε να καταλήξει µε την απÞλυτη πλειοψηφία, αν υπάρξει επÞµενοσ γύροσ εκλογών µέσα στο 2013.
Αν τουλάχιστον η λιτÞτητα στο νÞτο είχε αντισταθµιστεί απÞ τη δηµοσιονοµική επέκταση στο βορρά, η συνολική δηµοσιονοµική προοπτική τησ ευρωζώνησ θα ήταν µακροοικονοµικά ουδέτερη. Αλλά, δεδοµένου Þτι και ο βορράσ προχώρησε σε λιτÞτητα, η ευρωζώνη κατέληξε µε πρωτογενέσ δηµοσιονοµικÞ πλεÞνασµα σε ύφεση. Σε ένα τέτοιο περιβάλλον, απλά δε γίνεται να λάβει χώρα η οικονοµική αναπροσαρµογή. ∆ίχωσ αυτήν δε µπορεί να υπάρξει λύση στην κρίση. Πιστεύω εδώ και καιρÞ, Þτι δεν είναι εφικτÞ η Γερµανία, η Φινλανδία και η Ολλανδία να βρίσκονται στην ίδια νοµισµατική ένωση µε την Κύπρο, την Ελλάδα και την Πορτογαλία. Θα πρέπει οι δύο πλευρέσ είτε να συµφωνήσουν να προσαρµοστούν πιο συµµετρικά, απÞ πολιτικήσ και οικονοµικήσ άποψησ, είτε αυτÞ το πείραµα θα πρέπει να τελειώσει. Η πρÞβλεψη που έκανα το Νοέµβριο του 2011, και την οποία επαναλαµβάνω σήµερα, είναι Þτι η ευρωζώνη θα τελειώσει κάποια στιγµή, αν και αυτή η στιγµή µπορεί να είναι ακÞµα πολύ µακριά. ∆ε µπορώ φυσικά να αποκλείσω το ενδεχÞµενο Þτι οι διάφορεσ κυβερνήσεισ θα κάνουν σωστέσ κινήσεισ, αλλά τα τρία τελευταία χρÞνια διαχείρισησ κρίσεων µασ δείχνουν ακριβώσ το αντίθετο. Μέσω τησ τρέχουσασ πολιτικήσ, θα χρειαστεί στο τέλοσ να καταφύγουν στη βία για να συνεχίσουν να δρουν απερίσκεπτα, ενάντια στα συµφέροντα του λαού. ∆ε χρειάζεται να είναι κανείσ ευρωσκεπτικιστήσ για να καταλήξει στο συµπέρασµα Þτι µία τέτοιου είδουσ νοµισµατική ένωση είναι βαθιά ανήθικη. ¶ËÁ‹: www.sofokleous10.gr
∆Ô (ÌË) ¯Â›ÚÔÓ ‚¤ÏÙÈÛÙÔÓ; ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Σε ακÞµα µια συνεδρίαση «παρωδία» του Eurogroup Þπου οι 17 ευρωπαίοι υπουργοί οικονοµικών τησ Ευρωζώνησ κλήθηκαν να λύσουν το κυπριακÞ πρÞβληµα έδωσαν την χαριστική βουλή στην χώρα µασ µε µια απÞφαση κÞλαφοσ για το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ µασ σύστηµα. Η κρίσιµη συνεδρίαση του Eurogroup ξεκίνησε µε έξι ώρεσ καθυστέρηση, αφού ακολουθήθηκε µια παράδοξη διαδικασία, καθώσ οι υπουργοί Οικονοµικών τησ ευρωζώνησ λίγο πριν απÞ τισ 11 το βράδυ ξεκίνησαν µια άτυπη συνεδρίαση, δηλαδή µία ανεπίσηµη προ-συνάντηση, απÞ την οποία απείχαν οι εκπρÞσωποι τησ κυπριακήσ πλευράσ! Βασικά την απÞφαση πήραν ωσ είθισται οι Γερµανοί και την σέρβιραν στουσ υπÞλοιπουσ 16 που για ακÞµα µια φορά παρίσταναν τα διακοσµητικά στοιχεία σε ακÞµα µια συνεδρία παρωδία Þπου το τρίο τησ αλαζονείασ (Lagarde, Νταισελµπλούµ και Σοιµπλε) µε εκβιασµούσ απειλέσ και πρωτοφανή επιθετικÞτητα πέτυχαν αυτÞ που ήθελαν. Πρακτικά, κλείνει η δεύτερη µεγαλύτερη τράπεζα, η Λαϊκή, η οποία θα σπάσει σε «καλή» και «κακή» τράπεζα επιβάλλοντασ πολύ µεγάλεσ απώλειεσ σε καταθέτεσ µε περισσÞτερα απÞ 100.000 ευρώ, είτε είναι ξένοι είτε Kύπριοι. ΑπÞ την κίνηση αυτή πλήττονται εκτÞσ απÞ τουσ καταθέτεσ µε περισσÞτερα απÞ 100.000 ευρώ και οι οµολογιούχοι καθώσ Þλοι χάνουν σχεδÞν Þλεσ τουσ τισ επενδύσεισ –αν και µένει ακÞµη να ξεκαθαριστεί µε ποιουσ Þρουσ θα γίνει αυτÞ. Το «καλÞ» κοµµάτι τησ Λαϊκήσ θα µεταφερθεί στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου. Οι καταθέτεσ
τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, που έχουν περισσÞτερα απÞ 100.000 ευρώ, θα υποστούν κι αυτοί απώλειεσ, οι οποίεσ σύµφωνα µε πηγέσ, αναµένεται να ανέλθουν, κατά µέσο Þρο, σε περίπου 30%, ενώ σε ορισµένεσ ακραίεσ περιπτώσεισ, ενδέχεται να φτάσει και το 40%. Επίσησ επιβάλλονται πολύ αυστηροί Þροι στη διακίνηση κεφαλαίων για να µην υπάρξει µαζική εκροή χρηµάτων απÞ τισ τράπεζεσ. Μια απÞφαση ταφÞπλακα Þχι µÞνο για το χρηµατοοικονοµικÞ τοµέα τησ Κύπρου αλλά και για ολÞκληρη την οικονοµία. Το κυπριακÞ ΑΕΠ απειλείται πλέον µε πραγµατική κατάρρευση, ενώ παράλληλα οι ασφυκτικοί έλεγχοι στη διακίνηση των κεφαλαίων θα βάλουν φρένο στην οµαλή λειτουργία τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Με το πακέτο διάσωσησ των 10 δισ. ευρώ το κυπριακÞ χρέοσ θα σκαρφαλώσει στο 140% του ΑΕΠ ενώ τα ποσά που θα λάβει απÞ την Ευρωζώνη η Λευκωσία θα οδηγήσουν σε δυσθεώρητα ύψη το κυπριακÞ χρέοσ, καθιστώντασ το σταδιακά µη βιώσιµο. Η αυστηρή λιτÞτητα θα εκτινάξει στα ύψη την ανεργία στη χώρα, αυξάνοντασ τον κίνδυνο για κοινωνική έκρηξη. Η κυπριακή οικονοµία κινδυνεύει να καταστεί µια οικονοµία - ζÞµπι, πλήρωσ εξαρτηµένη απÞ την Ευρωζώνη και χωρίσ πολλέσ ελπίδεσ για ανάπτυξη. Η επίτευξη συµφωνίασ για την Κύπρο αναδεικνύει και κάτι ακÞµη, επίσησ πολύ σοβαρÞ: Για µια ακÞµη φορά, οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ δεν συνοδεύθηκαν απÞ καµία δηµοκρατική διαδικασία. Ο νέοσ πρÞεδροσ του Eurogroup δεν είναι τίποτα περισσÞτερο απÞ ένα ακÞµα πιÞνι του ΣÞιµπλε ο οποίοσ πατώντασ πάνω στην προεκλογική εκστρατεία τησ Μέρκελ δείχνει τα δÞντια του σε µια µικρή χώρα µε φτηνά επιχειρήµατα περί ξεπλύµατοσ µαύρου χρήµατοσ. Είναι πράγµατι άξιο απορίασ πÞσο εύκολα ενσωµατώθηκε η προπαγάνδα των Γερµανών και λοιπών δυνάµεων
ÿıËÎÂ Ë §·˚΋, ÎÏÈÓÈο ÓÂÎÚ‹ Ë ∆Ú¿Â˙· ∫‡ÚÔ˘, Û ÎÚ›ÛÈÌË Î·Ù¿ÛÙ·ÛË ÔÈ ˘fiÏÔȘ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜, ÛÙËÓ ÂÓÙ·ÙÈ΋ ÔÏfiÎÏËÚÔ˜ Ô ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎfi˜ ÙÔ̤·˜ Î·È ÙÔ Ì¤Á· ÂÚÒÙËÌ· Ô˘ ÁÂÓÓȤٷÈ: ÂÓÙfi˜ Ë ÂÎÙfi˜ ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓ˘ Ë ¯ÒÚ·; σχετικά µε τα «µαύρο χρήµα», το πλυντήριο και το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα και άλλα επιχειρήµατα άνευ ουσίασ. ∆ηλαδή το Λουξεµβούργο ή ακÞµα και οι Γερµανικέσ τράπεζεσ δεν ξέρουν τίποτα για το «βρώµικο χρήµα» που ξεπλένεται στην επικράτεια τουσ, το χρήµα τησ Στάζι και των Ναζί που ξεπλύθηκε; Θέλουν να µασ πείσουν Þτι για 5-6 δισ ευρώ απειλούν να τινάξουν στον αέρα ολÞκληρο το οικοδÞµηµα του Ευρώ. Σε καµία περίπτωση! Υπάρχει οργανωµένο σχέδιο αποδÞµησησ του κυπριακού τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ αλλά και του ρÞλου τησ Κύπρου ωσ χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ κέντρο διακίνησησ κεφαλαίων απÞ τη Μέση Ανατολή, τη Ρωσία, την Κίνα και την Αµερική. Και Þλα αυτά στην κρισιµÞτερη φάση τησ εκµετάλλευσησ του φυσικού πλούτου τησ. Η διψασµένη για ενέργεια Γερµανία που αιµατοκύλησε τουλάχιστον δύο φορέσ την Ευρώπη συνεχίζει ακάθεκτη το έργο σε µια νέα προσπάθεια, µÞνο που αυτή τη φÞρα είναι το Ευρώ κι ο τρÞποσ που το χρησιµοποιεί, αυτÞ είναι το ισχυρÞτερο Þπλο µαζικήσ καταστροφήσ των οικονο-
µιών. Μια µατιά µÞνο στον χάρτη τησ ανατολικήσ Μεσογείου δείχνει την τεραστία γεωπολιτική θέση τησ Κύπρου και τη µεγίστη στρατηγική τησ αξία. Η Κύπροσ είναι το µπαλκÞνι τησ νοτιοανατολικήσ Μεσογείου. Η Κύπροσ είναι η «πÞρτα» απÞ την οποία µπαίνεισ στην ευρύτερη αφρικανική και ασιατική περιοχή. Η µαρτυρική Κύπροσ –δεν είναι η πρώτη φορά – γίνεται πεδίο µιασ άγριασ, ίσωσ τησ µεγαλύτερησ σύγκρουσησ για τον έλεγχο των γεωπολιτικών σφαιρών. Πλέον το µέγα ερώτηµα που πλανάται στην χώρα µασ είναι το τι µέλλει γενέσθαι. Μπορεί η χώρα µασ να ξεφύγει απÞ αυτή την θηλιά που τισ έχουν δέσει στον λαιµÞ οι «εταίροι» τησ; Μπορούµε να το κάνουµε εντÞσ ή εκτÞσ Ευρώ»; Είναι δυνατÞν να απεµπλακούµε απÞ το βάσανο τησ τρÞικασ την οποία θα έχουµε στο σβέρκο µασ επί καθηµερινήσ βάσησ µε τισ παράλογεσ απαιτήσεισ τουσ; Σε αυτά και άλλα ερωτήµατα θα επιχειρήσουµε να δώσουµε ρεαλιστικέσ και πάνω απÞ Þλα εφικτέσ απαντήσεισ στο επÞµενο µασ άρθρο.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 MAΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 7
¢È·ÚÚÔ¤˜ ÂηÙÔÌÌ˘Ú›ˆÓ Ì ÎÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÙȘ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Τεράστια ποσά έφυγαν απÞ τισ κυπριακέσ τράπεζεσ, την ώρα που αυτέσ ήταν κλειστέσ, οι πολίτεσ έκαναν ουρέσ στα ATM και ο Νίκοσ Αναστασιάδησ ήταν σε διαπραγµατεύσεισ για να βρεθεί λύση, αναφέρει σε δηµοσίευµα του το πρακτορείο Reuters. Συγκεκριµένα αναφέρεται Þτι έγιναν αναλήψεισ απÞ υποκαταστήµατα του εξωτερικού, µεταφορέσ κεφαλαίων µε το αιτιολογικÞ Þτι προορίζονται για «ανθρωπιστική βοή-
θεια», αγορά φαρµάκων ή ακÞµη και καυσίµων αεροσκαφών ήταν µερικά απÞ τα τεχνάσµατα που χρησιµοποίησαν µεγάλοι πελάτεσ τραπεζών τησ Κύπρου για να σηκώσουν Þσο περισσÞτερα χρήµατα µπορούσαν. Σύµφωνα µε Þσα αποκαλύπτει το πρακτορείο µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ έφυγαν απÞ το νησί δεκάδεσ ή ίσωσ εκατοντάδεσ εκατοµµύρια ευρώ Þσο ήταν κλειστέσ οι τράπεζεσ και λίγο πριν ληφθεί η απÞφαση για την αναδιάρ-
θρωσή τουσ. Τα στελέχη τησ ΕΕ κατάλαβαν Þτι κάτι δεν πήγαινε καλά Þταν η Κεντρική Τράπεζα Κύπρου άρχισε να ζητάει περισσÞτερα χαρτονοµίσµατα απÞ Þσα δήλωνε στα κεντρικά τησ ΕΚΤ στη Φρανκφούρτη και Þτι έκαναν αναλήψεισ πελάτεσ τραπεζών τησ Κύπρου, αναφέρουν πηγέσ του Reuters. Η αποκάλυψη προκαλεί αίσθηση αφού την ώρα που πολλοί µικροκαταθέτεσ Κύπριοι έκαναν ουρέσ στα ΑΤΜ για να πάρουν µερι-
κέσ µÞνο εκατοντάδεσ ευρώ, άλλοι που είχαν πρÞσβαση κυρίωσ σε εταιρείεσ χρησιµοποίησαν τεχνάσµατα για να σηκώσουν ρευστÞ. Εταιρείεσ έπαιρναν πράσινο φωσ για αναλήψεισ δηλώνοντασ Þτι έπρεπε να καλύψουν επενδυτικά ανοίγµατα ενώ επιτράπηκαν ακÞµη και µεταφορέσ κεφαλαίων για Þσουσ τισ ζητούσαν µε αιτιολογικÞ την αγορά ανθρωπιστικήσ βοήθειασ, φαρµάκων ή καυσίµων για αεροσκάφη.
Fitch: “Default” Ë §·˚΋, “Restricted Default” Ë ∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Σε υποβάθµιση των µακροπρÞθεσµων και βραχυπρÞθεσµων IDRs τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ στην τελευταία βαθµίδα αξιολÞγησησ “D”, δηλαδή σε Default, και των IDRs τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου σε “RD”, δηλαδή Restricted Default, απÞ “B”, αντίστοιχα, προχώρησε ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ Fitch Ratings, µετά τη συµφωνία του Eurogroup µε τισ κυπριακέσ αρχέσ για παραχώρηση στην Κύπρο οικονοµικήσ βοήθειασ ύψουσ 10 δισ ευρώ. Σύµφωνα µε τον οίκο, η διαφορά στην αξιολÞγηση των δύο τραπεζών έγκειται στο γεγονÞσ Þτι η Τράπεζα Κύπρου συνεχίζει τισ
εργασίεσ τησ στην Κύπρο, ενώ η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα θα διασπαστεί σε “καλή” και “κακή” τράπεζα. Επίσησ, ο Fitch διατήρησε σε αρνητικÞ ορίζοντα για πιθανή υποβάθµιση την αξιολÞγηση τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ. ΕιδικÞτερα, ο οίκοσ διατήρησε την αξιολÞγηση των µακροπροθέσµων IDR και SRF τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ σε “Β” και των SR στη βαθµίδα “4”, καθώσ δεν έχουν επιβληθεί απώλειεσ στουσ ανασφάλιστουσ καταθέτεσ µέχρι σήµερα, ενώ η Τράπεζα συνεχίζει να λαµβάνει ρευστÞτητα απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα, ωσ
αποτέλεσµα τησ δήλωσησ του Eurogroup. Ο οίκοσ Fitch αφού αναφέρεται στισ αποφάσεισ που λήφθηκαν στο Eurogroup για τισ δύο τράπεζεσ, αναφέρει Þτι αναµένει τÞσο την ανάκληση τησ τραπεζικήσ άδειασ τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ Þσο και την επιβολή σηµαντικών ζηµιών απÞ τισ “κακέσ τραπεζικέσ υποχρεώσεισ”. Σε σχέση µε την Τράπεζα Κύπρου, ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ αναµένει την επιβολή σηµαντικών ζηµιών στουσ ανασφάλιστουσ καταθέτεσ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου καθώσ η τράπεζα δεν θα έχει πρÞσβαση σε κρατική ενίσχυση σύµφωνα
µε το πακέτο διάσωσησ ύψουσ 10 δισ. ευρώ. Ùσον αφορά την πώληση του ελληνικού δικτύου καταστηµάτων τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, που θα έχει αποτέλεσµα µια ενδεχÞµενη µείωση των ριψοκίνδυνων στοιχείων ενεργητικού, ο οίκοσ Fitch σηµειώνει Þτι αυτέσ οι εξελίξεισ µπορούν να στηρίξουν την κεφαλαιακή θέση τησ τράπεζασ, ενώ οι καταθέτεσ µπορεί να είναι κάπωσ πιο πρÞθυµοι να συνεχίσουν τη χρηµατοδÞτηση τησ τράπεζασ, ωσ αποτέλεσµα του γεγονÞτοσ Þτι η Ελληνική Τράπεζα δεν περιλαµβάνεται µέχρι σήµερα σε οποιαδήποτε µέτρα εξυγίανσησ.
MÂÙ¿ ·fi ÂÈÚ·Ì·Ùfi˙ˆÔ Ë ∫‡ÚÔ˜ ¤ÁÈÓ ÚfiÙ˘Ô Πολλοί είναι αυτοί που είπαν Þτι η Κύπροσ χρησιµοποιήθηκε ωσ πειραµατÞζωο απÞ την Ευρωζώνη µέχρι την οριστική συµφωνία για την οικονοµική στήριξη τησ. ΩστÞσο ο επικεφαλήσ του Eurogroup Γερούν Ντάισελµπλουµ, φαίνεται να έχει άλλη άποψη. Ùπωσ δήλωσε το πρÞγραµµα διάσωσησ που συµφωνήθηκε για την Κύπρο συνιστά ένα νέο πρÞτυπο για την επίλυση τραπεζικών προβληµάτων στην ευρωζώνη και άλλεσ χώρεσ µπορεί να χρειαστεί να αναδιαρθρώσουν τουσ τραπεζικούσ τοµείσ τουσ. “ΑυτÞ που κάναµε είναι αυτÞ που αποκαλώ απώθηση κινδύνων”, δήλωσε ο ΟλλανδÞσ ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Γερούν Ντάισελµπλουµ, ο οποίοσ ηγείται του Συµβουλίου των Υπουργών Οικονοµικών τησ Ευρωζώνησ, µετά που επιτεύχθηκε η συµφωνία για την Κύπρο. «Αν υπάρχει κίνδυνοσ σε µια τράπεζα, η πρώτη µασ ερώτηση θα πρέπει να είναι, τι θα κάνετε εσείσ στην τράπεζα γι` αυτÞ;Τι µπορείτε να κάνετε για να ανακεφαλαιοποιθείτε µÞνοι σασ;» Αν η τράπεζα δεν µπορεί να το
καταφέρει, τÞτε θα µιλήσουµε στουσ κατÞχουσ µετοχών και τουσ κατÞχουσ οµολÞγων, θα τουσ ζητήσουµε να συµβάλουν στην ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τησ τράπεζασ, και αν είναι απαραίτητο θα το ζητήσουµε και απÞ τουσ κατÞχουσ ανασφάλιστων καταθέσεων” άνω των 100.000 ευρώ. «Αν θέλουµε να έχουµε έναν υγιή χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ τοµέα, ο µÞνοσ τρÞποσ είναι να πούµε, οίτα, εκεί Þπου αναλαµβάνεισ κινδύνουσ, πρέπει και να τουσ αντιµετωπίζεισ και, αν δεν µπορείσ να τουσ αντιµετωπίσεισ, τÞτε δεν θα έπρεπε να τουσ είχεσ αναλάβει», δήλωσε ο Ντάισελµπλουµ. “Αυτή είναι µια προσέγγιση που πιστεύω Þτι τώρα που βγήκαµε απÞ την αιχµή τησ κρίσησ, θα πρέπει να υιοθετήσουµε”. Ερωτηθείσ τι σηµαίνει αυτή η νέα προσέγγιση για χώρεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ που έχουν τραπεζικούσ τοµείσ µε υψηλή µÞχλευση, Þπωσ το Λουξεµβούργο και η Μάλτα, καθώσ και για άλλεσ χώρεσ µε τραπεζικά προβλήµατα, Þπωσ η Σλοβενία, ο Ντάισελµπλουµ είπε πωσ θα πρέπει να συρρικνώσουν τισ τράπεζεσ. “Σηµαίνει, αντιµετώπισε το θέµα πριν σου
δηµιουργήσει πρÞβληµα. Ενίσχυσε τισ τράπεζέσ σου, ρύθµισε τα ισοζύγιά σου και συνειδητοποίησε πωσ, αν µια τράπεζα έχει πρÞβληµα, η απάντηση δεν θα είναι πλέον αυτοµάτωσ Þτι θα έρθουµε να εξαφανίσουµε το πρÞβληµά σου. Εσύ είσαι που θα πρέπει να το αντιµετωπίσεισ”. Αυτή η αξιοσηµείωτη αλλαγή στάσησ, για την οποία ο Ντάισελµπλουµ συµφώνησε πωσ πρÞκειται για µια στρατηγική στροφή εκ µέρουσ αυτών που αποφασίζουν την πολιτική στην ΕΕ, έχει συνέπειεσ στο πώσ θα ανακεφαλαιοποιούνται οι τράπεζεσ και στο
∂Ú·ÛÈÙ¯ÓÈΤ˜ ÎÈÓ‹ÛÂȘ ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ ËÁ¤Ù˜ Ù˘ Â˘Úˆ˙ÒÓ˘ Ùπωσ και µετά την πρώτη απορριφθείσα συµφωνία του Eurogroup έτσι και τώρα στη Βρετανία, µετά τισ πρώτεσ αντιδράσεισ και έντονεσ επικρίσεισ κατά τησ ευρωζώνησ και τησ τρÞικα για τισ εξελίξεισ στην Κύπρο, εµφανίζονται αναλυτέσ που υπερασπίζονται τη συµφωνία, έστω και αν παραµένουν η µειοψηφία. Μετά τον πρωθυπουργÞ Ντέιβιντ Κάµερον που χαρακτήρισε καλή εξέλιξη την επίτευξη συµφωνίασ για την Κύπρο, εκφράζοντασ τη χαρά του για την εξαίρεση των µικροκαταθετών, υπάρχουν αναλυτέσ που σχολιάζουν χαρακτηριστικά Þτι η κατάσταση στην οποία έχει περιέλθει το νησί δεν οφείλεται στη γερµανική «βαρβαρÞτητα», αλλά «στην ανευθυνÞτητα των ηγεσιών του».
Στο κύριο άρθρο τουσ οι Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµσ, που έχουν τηρήσει εξαιρετικά επικριτική στάση απέναντι στουσ Ευρωπαίουσ εταίρουσ, σχολιάζουν Þτι «αν και λίγοι θα συµφωνήσουν στην Κύπρο, το νησί πήρε την καλύτερη συµφωνία που δικαιούταν να περιµένει». Το άρθρο εξηγεί Þτι η Κύπροσ επέλεξε την υψηλού ρίσκου στρατηγική να ζει εξαρτώµενο απÞ έναν τραπεζιτικÞ τοµέα πολύ µεγαλύτερο απÞ Þσο µπορούσε να στηρίξει το κράτοσ. ΣυχνÞτερεσ και εντονÞτερεσ είναι πάντωσ οι επικρίσεισ κατά τησ ευρωζώνησ και η διατύπωση αµφιβολιών για το µέλλον του εγχειρήµατοσ του ενιαίου νοµίσµατοσ. Το ίδιο άρθρο τησ βρετανικήσ οικονοµικήσ εφηµερίδασ καταλήγει αναφέροντασ Þτι οι ελπίδεσ να
ξεπεράσει το ευρώ µε επιτυχία την κρίση χρέουσ υπέστησαν βαρύ πλήγµα λÞγω του «ερασιτεχνισµού που κÞβει την ανάσα» τον οποίο επέδειξαν οι ηγέτεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ. Ο Τζέρεµι ΓουÞρνερ στην Ντέιλι Τέλεγκραφ προειδοποιεί τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ εταίρουσ Þτι θα µετανιώσουν για τη σκληρή τιµωρία που επέβαλαν στην Κύπρο, καθώσ η έλλειψη αλληλεγγύησ υπονοµεύει την ουσία τησ ευρωζώνησ. Στο κύριο άρθρο τησ η εφηµερίδα Ιντιπέντεντ τονίζει Þτι οι ενέργειεσ των ηγετών τησ ευρωζώνησ στην Κύπρο άφησαν άθικτο τον «τοξικÞ» δεσµÞ µεταξύ τραπεζών και κυβερνήσεων, αποδεικνύοντασ Þτι «έχουν µάθει πολύ λίγα» απÞ τα προηγούµενα χρÞνια τησ κρίσησ.
πώσ θα αντιδρούν οι αγορέσ. Ένα απÞ τα σηµαντικÞτερα βήµατα που έχει κάνει τα τρία τελευταία χρÞνια η ζώνη του ευρώ ήταν η ίδρυση ενÞσ µηχανισµού διάσωσησ µε εγγυήσεισ και κεφάλαιο 700 δισ. ευρώ - του Ευρωπαϊκού Μηχανισµού ΣταθερÞτητασ. Η προσδοκία ήταν Þτι ο ΕΜΣ θα µπορεί να ανακεφαλαιοποιεί άµεσα απÞ τα µέσα του 2014 τισ τράπεζεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Τώρα ο κ. Ντάισελµπλουµ λέει πωσ ο στÞχοσ είναι να µην χρειαστεί να χρησιµοποιηθεί ποτέ ο ΕΜΣ. “Θα πρέπει να επιτύχουµε µια κατάσταση Þπου δεν θα χρειαστεί ποτέ ούτε να σκεφτούµε καν την άµεση ανακεφαλαιοποίηση”, δήλωσε. “Πιστεύω πωσ η προσέγγιση πρέπει να είναι, να αντιµετωπίσουµε τα προβλήµατα των τραπεζών πρώτα µέσα στισ τράπεζεσ, πριν αναζητήσουµε δηµÞσια χρήµατα ή οποιοδήποτε άλλο εργαλείο απÞ την πλευρά του δηµοσίου. Οι τράπεζεσ θα πρέπει βασικά να είναι ικανέσ να σώζουν τον εαυτÞ τουσ ή τουλάχιστον να αναδιαρθρώνονται ή να ανακεφαλαιοποιούνται Þσο το δυνατÞν περισσÞτερο”.
∞‡ÍËÛË ÙˆÓ ·ÈÙ‹ÛÂˆÓ ÛÙ· ÎÔÈÓˆÓÈο ·ÓÙԈϛ· Η ΜητρÞπολη Ταµασού και Ορεινήσ και ο ∆ήµοσ Λακατάµιασ δέχθηκαν περίπου 30 νέεσ αιτήσεισ για παροχή δεµάτων µε τρÞφιµα απÞ το κοινωνικÞ παντοπωλείο, το οποίο απευθύνει έκκληση για την προσφορά κυρίωσ παιδικών τροφών, απÞ εκείνουσ οι οποίοι βρίσκονται σε καλύτερη οικονοµική κατάσταση απÞ άλλουσ συµπολίτεσ µασ. «Πέραν απÞ τισ οικογένειεσ που είναι στουσ αυτέσ τισ λίγεσ µέρεσ επικοινωνούν µαζί µασ και άλλεσ οικογένειεσ για να τουσ δώσουµε κάτι να πορευτούν και δεν θα χρειαστούν ξανά την βοήθειά µασ, εφÞσον λειτουργήσει το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα Þπωσ οι ίδιοι µασ λένε», είπε ο Γεώργιοσ Κουννούσιησ, ∆ιευθυντήσ Κοινωνικήσ Αλληλεγγύησ τησ ΜητρÞπολησ Ταµασού και Ορεινήσ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
27 MAΡΤΙΟΥ, 2013
8 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
µ·Ú‡ Ù›ÌËÌ· ı· ÏËÚÒÛÂÈ Ë §ÂÌÂÛfi˜ Τη δυσκολÞτερη ίσωσ περίοδο τησ θα βιώσει η ΛεµεσÞσ, ωσ το κατεξοχήν κέντρο ξένων επιχειρήσεων στην Κύπρο, πληρώνοντασ το µεγαλύτερο κÞστοσ τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ, δήλωσε ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Ανδρέασ Χρίστου, ενώ την ίδια ώρα διαµηνύει πωσ, δεν θα πρέπει να σκύψουµε τα κεφάλια, αλλά να εργαστούµε για να επαναφέρουµε τον τÞπο σε καλύτερεσ µέρεσ και να επανακτήσουµε τη χαµένη εµπιστοσύνη των επενδυτών µασ. Σύµφωνα µε τον κ. Χρίστου, το τίµηµα απÞ τη συµφωνία που επιτεύχθηκε στο Eurogroup και την αναµενÞµενη εφαρµογή του µνηµονίου, θα πλήξει ιδιαίτερα τη ΛεµεσÞ, καθώσ αναµένεται Þτι µερίδα ξένων εταιρειών θα εγκαταλείψουν τη χώρα, σηµειώνοντασ πωσ, ήδη γίνονται δελεαστικέσ προτάσεισ προσ τισ επιχειρήσεισ αυτέσ «απÞ αυτούσ που µασ κατηγορούν για ξέπλυµα βρώµικου χρήµατοσ». «Αναµένουµε Þτι θα υπάρξει αύξηση τησ ανεργίασ, µεί-
ωση στην επιχειρηµατική δραστηριÞτητα, περαιτέρω µείωση στην οικοδοµική βιοµηχανία και άλλα», είπε ο Ανδρέασ Χρίστου, προσθέτοντασ Þτι οι εξελίξεισ αποτελούν πλήγµα και για τη µεγάλη ρωσική κοινÞτητα που για χρÞνια δραστηριοποιείται στην πÞλη και έχει αφήσει έντονα το στίγµα τησ στα κοινωνικά και πολιτιστικά δρώµενα. Το κούρεµα των καταθέσεων, συνέχισε, επηρεάζει και τον προγραµµατισµÞ του Συµβουλίου Αποχετεύσεωσ Λεµεσού-Αµαθούντασ (ΣΑΛΑ), αφού υπολογίζεται Þτι, έργα ύψουσ 30 εκ. ευρώ, δεν θα υλοποιηθούν σε αυτÞ στάδιο και θα πρέπει να γίνει επανασχεδιασµÞσ. Στο πλαίσιο των προσπαθειών περισυλλογήσ και εξοικονÞµησησ πÞρων, ο ∆ήµοσ Λεµεσού προγραµµατίζει να πάρει ακÞµη αυστηρÞτερα µέτρα, τα οποία θα συζητηθούν σε προσεχείσ συνεδρίεσ του δηµοτικού συµβουλίου, ενώ Þπωσ χαρακτηριστικά ανέφερε ο κ.Χρίστου, τα µέτρα αυτά θα
είναι «µÞνο για να αναπνέουµε πλέον, να δούµε πωσ θα κρατηθούµε στη ζωή και πωσ πάει η κατάσταση και µετά, ανάλογα µε τισ δυνατÞτητεσ µασ, θα κάνουµε αυτÞ που µπορούµε». Ο Ανδρέασ Χρίστου κάλεσε τουσ Λεµεσιανούσ να αντιληφθούν Þτι «οι λογικέσ και αναµενÞµενεσ προσδοκίεσ απÞ το ∆ήµο δεν µπορούν να υλοποιηθούν για ένα µεγάλο διάστηµα» υποδεικνύοντασ, πωσ αυτÞ δεν πρέπει να χρησιµοποιηθεί ωσ πρÞσχηµα για να σταµατήσουν και οι δηµÞτεσ να ανταποκρίνονται στισ υποχρεώσεισ τουσ προσ το ∆ήµο. Παράλληλα, συµπλήρωσε, θα πρέπει ο καθένασ να φροντίσει να λιγοστέψει τα βάρη πάνω στο δηµÞσιο τοµέα και αντιστρÞφωσ, ενώ τÞνισε πωσ και οι ποιο µικρέσ ατοµικέσ ενέργειεσ µπορούν να κάνουν τη διαφορά, φέρνοντασ ωσ παράδειγµα την περαιτέρω ευαισθητοποίηση σε θέµατα καθαριÞτητασ και ανακύκλωσησ.
¢È·Û˘ÓÔÚȷο ‰¿ÓÂÈ· $59,2 ‰È˜ ÚÔ˜ ΢ÚȷΤ˜ ÂÙ·ÈÚ›˜ ∆ιασυνοριακοί δανειστέσ, µε εξαίρεση αυτούσ απÞ τη Ρωσία, είχαν 59,2 δισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια εκκρεµών δανείων προσ εταιρείεσ στην Κύπρο στο τέλοσ Σεπτεµβρίου, σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία τησ Τράπεζασ ∆ιεθνών ∆ιακανονισµών (BIS). Στα στατιστικά στοιχεία τησ BIS, που είναι η µÞνη που καταγράφει το διασυνοριακÞ δανεισµÞ σε Þλο τον κÞσµο, δεν περιλαµβάνονται δάνεια απÞ τη Ρωσία. Ο οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ Moody’s εκτιµά Þτι τα δάνεια που παραχώρησαν ρωσικέσ τράπεζεσ σε ρωσικέσ εταιρείεσ που εδρεύουν στην Κύπρο ανέρχονταν στα 30-40 δισ. δολάρια. Τα στοιχεία τησ BIS δείχνουν Þτι δανειστέσ απÞ την Ελλάδα και τη Γερµανία έχουν τη µεγαλύτερη έκθεση στην Κύπρο, απÞ τισ χώρεσ που υπέβαλαν εκθέσεισ.
Μερικέσ τράπεζεσ δεν αποκάλυψαν τα δάνειά τουσ στην Κύπρο, αλλά η Ευρωπαϊκή Τραπεζική Αρχή δεν έχει υποχρεώσει τισ τράπεζεσ να ανακοινώσουν µια ανάλυση των στοιχείων µε αφορµή το τεστ αντοχήσ που διενήργησε το 2011 στισ ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ. Το τεστ αντοχήσ έδειξε Þτι η Alpha Bank στην Ελλάδα είχε έκθεση 4,8 δισ ευρώ στο τέλοσ του 2010, η οποία διαµορφώθηκε στα 4,6 δισ ευρώ στο τέλοσ Σεπτεµβρίου. Η γερµανική HSH Nordbank είχε περίπου 6,1 δισ ευρώ σε επιχειρηµατικά δάνεια προσ την Κύπρο στο τέλοσ Σεπτεµβρίου, κυρίωσ για πλοία που ανήκουν σε γερµανικέσ και διεθνείσ επιχειρήσεισ που έχουν εγγραφεί στην Κύπρο. Ο ολλανδικÞσ Þµιλο ING είχε περίπου 900 εκ. ευρώ έκθεση του στο τέλοσ του περασµένου έτουσ σε εταιρείεσ
που είναι εγγεγραµµένεσ στην Κύπρο. Η ιταλική Intesa Sanpaolo ανακοίνωσε Þτι η έκθεση τησ σε δάνεια ήταν 138 εκ. ευρώ. Η βρετανική τράπεζα HSBC είχε µια καθαρή έκθεση περίπου 400 εκ. δολάρια προσ την Κύπρο στα τέλη του 2012, η Barclays ανακοίνωσε Þτι η καθαρή έκθεση τησ ήταν 323 εκ. στερλίνεσ και η RBS είχε δάνεια ύψουσ 377 εκ. στερλίνεσ, ωσ επί το πλείστον επιχειρηµατικά δάνεια. Τα ακÞλουθα στοιχεία δείχνουν την έκθεση χωρών σε δάνεια προσ την Κύπρο στο τέλοσ Σεπτεµβρίου (σε δισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια) Ρωσία 30-40, Ελλάδα 16,4, Γερµανία 7,6, Γαλλία 2,5, Ελβετία 2,2, Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο 2,2, Ολλανδία 1,9, Αυστρία 1,7, Ηνωµένεσ Πολιτείεσ 1,7, Ιταλία 1,6, Σουηδία 1,4
∞گțÛÎÔÔ˜: ∫¿ÔÈÔÈ Ú¤ÂÈ Ó· οÙÛÔ˘Ó ÛÙÔ ÛηÌÓ› Την πεποίθηση Þτι «κάποιοι πρέπει να κάτσουν στο σκαµνί» και να λογοδοτήσουν για το οικονοµικÞ σοκ που υπέστη η Κύπροσ εξέφρασε ο Αρχιεπίσκοποσ Κύπρου ΧρυσÞστοµοσ διαβεβαιώνοντασ παράλληλα Þτι η Εκκλησία θα σταθεί δίπλα στο λαÞ αυτέσ τισ δύσκολεσ για τον τÞπο ώρεσ. Ερωτηθείσ πωσ θα επηρεαστεί η Εκκλησία απÞ τισ µετοχέσ που έχει στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου, ο Αρχιεπίσκοποσ εξέφρασε την πεποίθηση Þτι το κεφάλαιο που είχε η Εκκλησία και που ήταν, Þπωσ ανέφερε, πάνω απÞ 100 εκ. ευρώ, έχει χαθεί. «Αλλά θα επιβιώσουµε, η Εκκλησία πολλέσ φορέσ πώλησε και τα καντήλια τησ, έβαλε ενέχυρο και τα δισκοπÞτηρα και Þµωσ επέζησε. ∆εν φοβάται η Εκκλησία, Þ,τι και να χάσει έχει το λαÞ που την αγαπά και την στηρίζει» είπε και τÞνισε πωσ η Εκκλησία θα σταθεί κοντά στο λαÞ, Þπωσ και ο λαÞσ κοντά στην Εκκλησία, «και θα υπερβούµε τισ δυσκολίεσ που αντιµετωπίζει αυτή τη στιγµή η πατρίδα µασ». Κληθείσ να σχολιάσει τη στάση των Ευρωπαίων εταίρων τησ Κύπρου, ο Αρχιεπίσκοποσ εξέφρασε την πεποίθηση πωσ
«δεν είναι η Ευρώπη που πιστέψαµε και µπήκαµε µέσα Þτι θα τυγχάναµε κάποιασ βοήθειασ, κάποιασ στήριξησ» αλλά και πωσ «φαίνεται Þτι τα συµφέροντα των µεγάλων θα παραµείνουν συµφέροντα». Ανέφερε ακÞµη Þτι το ποσÞ το οποίο χρειαζÞταν η Κύπροσ, έναντι του µεγάλου προϋπολογισµού τησ µεγάλησ Ευρώπησ ήταν ψίχουλα και η Κύπροσ δεν έπρεπε να τύχει τέτοιασ συµπεριφοράσ. Κληθείσ να σχολιάσει το ενδεχÞµενο κάποιοι να γνώριζαν και να µην µίλησαν ή και το ενδεχÞµενο κάποιοι να πιάστηκαν αδιάβαστοι, ο Αρχιεπίσκοποσ εξέφρασε την πεποίθηση Þτι «κάποιοι πρέπει να κάτσουν στο σκαµνί» προσθέτοντασ Þτι δεν µπορεί να ταλαιπωρείται ο λαÞσ και κανείσ να µην παθαίνει τίποτα και να µην υπάρχουν επιπτώσεισ για κανένα. «Επιτέλουσ πρέπει να γίνει µια αρχή, Þσοι φταίνε πρέπει να κάτσουν στο σκαµνί και δεν είναι εκδικητικÞ αλλά να τιµωρούµε τουσ άτακτουσ ‘ίνα και οι λοιποί φÞβον έχοσιν’. Ùταν δεν τιµωρούµε κανένα το έγκληµα και η αδικία θα συνεχίζονται» είπε.
§·ÎÎÔÙڇ˘: K·ÓÔÓÈο Ô ÚÔÁÚ·ÌÌ·ÙÈÛÌfi˜ ÁÈ· Ê˘ÛÈÎfi ·¤ÚÈÔ Ωσ τη µεγάλη προοπτική για το αύριο χαρακτήρισε το φυσικÞ αέριο ο ΥπουργÞσ Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού Γιώργοσ Λακκοτρύπησ, υποδεικνύοντασ πωσ αυτή η προοπτική θα πρέπει να διασφαλιστεί µε σύµπνοια και οµÞνοια. ∆ιαβεβαίωσε παράλληλα πωσ κανένασ σχεδιασµÞσ δεν έχει αλλάξει Þσον αφορά την εκµετάλλευση των ενεργειακών πÞρων τησ Κύπρου. Ερωτηθείσ κατά πÞσο έχει αλλάξει κάτι σε σχέση µε την 2η επιβεβαιωτική γεώτρηση η οποία αναµένεται εντÞσ Ιουνίου, ο κ. Λακκοτρύπησ ξεκαθάρισε Þτι «δεν έχει αλλάξει τίποτα, δεν έχει αλλάξει κανένα σχεδιασµÞσ µε τισ εταιρείεσ µε τισ οποίεσ έχουν υπογραφεί συµβÞλαια» και πωσ ο ίδιοσ έχει συναντηθεί µε εκπροσώπουσ Þλων των εταιρειών την περασµένη βδοµάδα «και επιβεβαιώνουν τα θετικά τουσ σχέδια». Ο ΥπουργÞσ Εµπορίου ζήτησε απÞ τον κÞσµο να ακολουθήσει τισ οδηγίεσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ και απηύθυνε έκκληση τÞσο προσ τουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ Þσο και προσ τουσ ιδιώτεσ για ψυχραιµία. ∆ιαβεβαίωσε παράλληλα Þτι το Υπουργείο θα εξετάσει µε την ΡΑΕΚ και την ΑΗΚ τρÞπουσ µείωσησ τησ τιµήσ του ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ και πωσ για το σκοπÞ αυτÞ έχει ήδη ζητήσει απÞ την ΡΑΕΚ να του ετοιµάσει µια σχετική µελέτη έτσι ώστε να µειωθεί το κÞστοσ για επιχειρήσεισ αλλά και για ευάλωτεσ οµάδεσ. Είπε ακÞµη Þτι εξετάζονται κάποια προγράµµατα για µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ και άλλα προγράµµατα που να προωθούν την νεανική και γυναικεία επιχειρηµατικÞτητα.
°. ∫Ú¤ÌÂÚ: ªÂ›ˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ΢ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡ ∞∂¶ ηٿ 10% Το ΑΕΠ τησ Κύπρου ενδέχεται να µειωθεί κατά 10% στα επÞµενα δύο µε τρία χρÞνια, εκτιµά ο επικεφαλήσ οικονοµολÞγοσ τησ Commetzbank Γεργκ Κρέµερ, προσθέτοντασ παράλληλα Þτι είναι ικανοποιηµένοσ απÞ τη συµφωνία για την Κύπρο. Θεωρεί απίθανο η Κύπροσ να χρειαστεί και άλλη βοήθεια, συµπληρώνει Þµωσ Þτι δεν το αποκλείει τελείωσ. Σε δηλώσεισ του ο κ. Κρέµερ είπε Þτι «ο οικονοµικÞσ τοµέασ τησ Κύπρου είναι υπερδιογκωµένοσ», προσθέτοντασ Þτι «µε τισ ριζικέσ αλλαγέσ στισ δύο µεγαλύτερεσ τράπεζεσ ο τοµέασ επανέρχεται σε ένα πλαίσιο και αυτÞ σηµαίνει δυστυχώσ Þτι θα χαθούν µαζικά θέσεισ εργασίασ». Εννοείται, συνέχισε, «Þτι η κυπριακή οικονοµία δεν θα καταρρεύσει, Þπωσ θα συνέβαινε αν δεν είχε επιτευχθεί συµφωνία στισ Βρυξέλλεσ. Και µÞνο Þµωσ µε την απώλεια θέσεων εργασίασ στον οικονοµικÞ και τραπεζικÞ τοµέα, η κυπριακή οικονοµία θα συρρικνωθεί σηµαντικά». «ΑυτÞ µπορεί να σηµαίνει για τα επÞµενα δύο µε τρία χρÞνια ακÞµα και συνολική συρρίκνωση του ΑΕΠ κατά 10%» είπε. Παράλληλα, ο επικεφαλήσ οικονοµολÞγοσ τησ δεύτερησ σε µέγεθοσ γερµανικήσ τράπεζασ, κάνοντασ έναν απολογισµÞ για την συµφωνία για την Κύπρο ανέφερε Þτι είναι θετικÞ Þτι η Λευκωσία κατέληξε σε συµφωνία µε τουσ εταίρουσ «αποτρέποντασ έτσι µια χρεοκοπία και την κατάρρευση του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ, που θα οδηγούσε σε έξοδο απÞ το ευρώ».
March 27 - April 2, 2013
financialmirror.com | PROPERTY | 17
Li Ka-shing sounds warning over volatile Hong Kong property A series of tightening measures have put the brakes on Hong Kong’s overheated property sector, forcing developers to cut prices and prompting a warning from Asia’s richest man Li Kashing: speculators stay away. Developers say a sixth round of cooling measures imposed last month to rein in prices and to avoid an asset bubble are now having an impact on sales. “If you are speculating, I would suggest that you stay away in such a volatile market because no one knows what will happen next,” Li told a news conference after his company Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd announced its first annual decline in net profit in five years. “Look at your pocket first and don’t take risks,” Li said. In late February, Financial Secretary John Tsang imposed a new round of steps to curb prices that have doubled since 2008, saying they were needed to keep the potential economic risk from spreading in the financial hub. The new measures included higher stamp duties and home loan curbs on property transactions. In the first three weeks of March, second-home transactions plunged to their lowest since the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, when Hong Kong’s real estate market hit an all-time low, according to data from property agent Midland Realty. “We only recorded two deals from the ten large-scale residential estates during the past two weeks,” said Wong Leung Sing, analyst at Centaline Property Agency. “It has never been so bad. “The market might head in two different directions: Prices
stay the same with a plunge in transactions, or prices will just collapse,” Wong said, adding that home prices may drop as much as 20% in the second quarter. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd, the world’s No.2 property company by market value, has also cautioned about the impact of the tightening measures and lowered its sales target for this financial year by 9%. Analysts say Cheung Kong has been forced to cut prices to boost sales in a lethargic market. Cheung Kong, Hong Kong’s second-largest property developer after Sun Hung Kai Properties, cut the price of a new project in the city by 6 to 17%, according to Macquarie Equities Research. Cheung Kong on Tuesday logged a 30% fall in 2012 net profit from a year earlier, although the total net profit of HK$32.2 bln ($4.1 bln) beat analysts’ expectations. Over the past three years, property prices have surged in Hong Kong, one of the world’s most expensive property markets, on ultra-low interest rates, tight supply and abundant liquidity.
CORRECTION ON THE CARDS
Along with government tightening, a number of banks raised mortgage rates by 25 basis points earlier this month. “We think the rate hike has psychological impact more than actual impact to buyers,” Dennis Wu, research analyst at Phillip Securities, wrote in a note last week.
Wu said a big drop in property prices in the past was only triggered by major events, such as the financial crisis in 1997 and the SARS outbreak in 2003. “But in view of property prices at historically high levels, government damping non-user demand and some property developers offering a price discount, we maintain a 5 to 10% reasonable correction forecast for 2013 property prices.” Despite signs of slowdown, the Centa-City Leading Index, a widely used indicator of the city’s residential price trends, is now at a record 123.7. That’s 1.7% higher than mid-February. Property developers in the Chinese special administrative region have so far seen limited impact from ongoing government tightening. On Monday, Henderson Land Development Co Ltd recorded a 28% year-on-year rise for 2012 underlying profit, while Agile Property Holdings Ltd’s net profit rose 22% during the same period. Henderson said in statement the cooling measures had resulted in a moderate downtrend in property prices and a drastic drop in property transactions.
Global real estate to grow in Americas, EMEA The general mood of investors for global commercial real estate market is more risk-averse than it once was, according to an industry survey by Colliers International. A year ago, investors were more optimistic about the European economy and not so preoccupied with the American fiscal cliff. Yet, despite this mood swing, Colliers backs this sentiment expecting positive news to take place in the coming year. For the commercial property sector, beneficiaries of the current environment will include office properties in global safehaven cities such as London and New York and industrial properties in global transportation centers that have enacted infrastructure investments, such as U.S East Coast ports including Baltimore, Charleston and Miami, which have invested the capital to prepare for the widening of the Panama Canal. Colliers’ key Global predictions for 2013 include: U.S. GDP Growth Will Stumble, then Recover: 2013 will be the third consecutive year of 2-2.5 per cent GDP growth. The majority of growth will occur in the second half of the year when the fiscal cliff threat and ILA East Coast port strike are in our rear-view mirrors. Labor Disputes Will Cause Trade Disruptions: Disagreement between management and labor, for a variety of causes, will affect economic growth in the coming year. Across the globe there are a number of issues in ports, the most high profile of which can be seen in the US, China and the Panama Canal. Europe can also expect labor flare ups in struggling Spain and Greece. In France, new austerity measures could also spark public sector strikes. India’s GDP Will Beat Forecaster Expectations: India’s GDP growth will reach 6.5% in 2013. Past growth forecasts have suffered from downward revision owing to the lack of implemented reform measures expected from the current government. However, the Indian government has recently displayed a keen resolve to introduce numerous fiscal and economic meas-
ures. India’s central bank is expected to slash bank rates in Q1 2013, which will further foster growth. China Will See Rising Demand for Warehouse Distribution Space: Relatively little land in China has been designated for development into warehouse property. This constrained new supply, combined with several demand side factors, primarily a growth in China’s logistics market, will make Chinese warehouses a star performer in 2013. Mexican Economic Growth Will Outpace U.S. and Canada: Mexico has seen three years of continuous growth and we expect this emerging market to beat its northern neighbours in terms of percentage of GDP growth in 2013. Mexico’s GDP is expected to grow by more than 3%, with economic stability through President Enrique Pena Nieto’s transition into power. In EMEA specifically, Colliers has uncovered several key findings including: European Bifurcation: Euro Area will see a further
North/South Split: Northern countries in the eurozone will continue to see stronger economic growth than their southern and peripheral counterparts, which will remain weak with local recessions. The eurozone as a whole will post marginal 0.25% GDP growth in 2013, with business investment and occupier demand gaining traction in the second half of the year. EMEA Property Transactions will Grow by up to 10%: We expect transaction velocity to struggle in early 2013, but again momentum through a modest economic recovery in the second half of the year. New lending sources such as insurance companies and mezzanine funds will continue to develop and partly ease the challenging lending environment. The year will end with transaction volume as much as 10% greater than in 2012. European Elections will not Threaten the Eurozone: While upcoming elections in Germany and Italy will prolong uncertainty and potentially create volatility in investment markets, they do not pose a true threat. Germany’s support of the eurozone will continue post-election. The risk that Italy’s April elections will fail to produce a government willing to continue on the reform path is also low. Mario Monti has brought stability and confidence back to Italy and it is unlikely that Berlusconi will return to power. We expect a center-left government in Italy’s future and with it a continuation on the reform path. Capital will Seek Safety in London: Colliers’s 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Survey reported that more than half (56%) of EMEA investors surveyed think it a good time to invest in the region and 59% plan to expand theur portfolios. For most of these investors Paris, German core cities and especially London are safe havens they will choose for capital protection. EMEA investors seek liquid and transparent markets with a quality stock of investment properties. Because London is ouside the eurozone, it is especially attractive in these times of euro uncertainty. Investors are willing to trade relative security for lower yields.
UK March house prices see rise biggest in 3 years House prices in England and Wales posted their biggest month-on-month gain in three years in March, driven by increases in London. Prices rose 0.3% from February, the biggest increase since March 2010, according to a survey by Hometrack, a property analysis firm. In year-on-year terms house prices were flat, the first time they have not fallen since September 2010. Britain’s housing market has been given a boost by the launch last year of the Funding for Lending Scheme under which the Bank of England provides banks with cheap funding to increase
loans for homebuyers and businesses. Last week, finance minister George Osborne announced further measures, including government guarantees for up to 130 bln pounds’ worth of mortgages. In London, prices jumped 0.7% in March from February and in the rest of England and Wales they rose in a fifth of postcode areas, the highest percentage for three years, according to Hometrack’s survey. Prices fell in only one region, the north east. Driving up prices was a 19% increase in demand - as meas-
ured by the number of potential buyers registering with estate agents - in the past two months while the number of homes for sale rose 13% in the same period, Hometrack said. Its survey is based on responses from estate agents and surveyors across England and Wales. Other house price measures have shown signs of a recovery. Mortgage lender Halifax said earlier this month that in the three months to February, house prices were 1.9% higher than a year ago, the third successive increase in this measure.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com
Watching the German economy By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary
I’ve expressed on many occasions in this column how closely connected 21st century economies are. The Eurozone normally supports my argument, with the continent serving as clear example of intertwined economies impacting on one another. I still stand by my assertion. Countries today are as interdependent as they have ever been. However, multiple recent events serve as reminders that despite all our common ties, different countries in the EU are experiencing the recession and recovery very differently. German investor confidence climbed unexpectedly last week to its highest point in three years, a possible indicator that Europe’s largest single economy is returning to growth. The ZEW Centre for European Economic Research revealed that its monthly index of investor and analyst expectations increased to 48.5, the highest level since April 2010, surprising economists who had predicted its fall. This is not stand-alone good news for the
country. The Bundesbank predicts that the economy will expand in this first quarter of 2013, reversing the trend of its 0.6pc contraction in the final quarter of 2012. Business confidence improved too in February, and unemployment fell. Elsewhere in the EU, it was announced that Switzerland’s economy enjoyed 0.2pc growth in the fourth quarter, boosted by consumer spending. Yet, in stark contrast, multiple Eurozone economies are on very shaky ground. The positive trends observed in the financial markets, which have been played up by Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, have not yet filtered down to citizens and businesses. At the same time as political turmoil in Italy, Cyprus banks have been discussing a bailout, sending the euro to its lowest level of the year so far. In the Netherlands, unemployment is at a peak and house prices have experienced the greatest annual drop since 1995. French unemployment is at a 13-year high. According to the latest PMI survey, the gap between the continent’s two biggest economies, Germany and France, is at its widest since the surveys began in 1998. It is for the rest of Europe to look to Germany for inspiration, scrutinise its economic policies, pinpoint exactly what works, and apply what’s applicable. Yet it is also important to consider Germany’s current
strength lies largely in factors that existed prior to the recession, and also in its immediate response to the fiscal situation in early 2009. Let me elaborate. The country has long had relatively low levels of private debt. The rest of the continent may have taken advantage of cheap credit throughout the 1990s and 2000s, but Germans are culturally uneasy with the concept of borrowing money. Companies and individuals lived and spent within their means, and so did not need to cut spending to reduce debt levels when banks stopped lending in the aftermath of the recession. Turn to exporting, and a German strongpoint, and it has certainly benefitted from the Euro’s weaknesses. Its products are now cheaper and more attractive to overseas consumers than if it were still using the deutschmark. The country also profits from better exposure to the emerging Asian economies than its major European counterparts, and will continue to benefit from increased demand there. A great credit to the German educational system, and something worth adopting, is the way it attaches less stigma to vocational and technical training than in many other countries. As a result, young adults have a breadth of talents when they enter the workplace, and have the skills needed to meet the country’s well established manu-
facturing sector. Its attitude to employment is also mature, with strong relationships and levels of trust in place between employers and their workers. As the recession hit, the Government made great efforts to maintain employment levels, and were highly successful in doing so, despite a reduction in hours for many workers. As Cyprus, and Europe as a whole, rushes to find solutions to its current debt crisis, and evaluate the successes of various policies, there is a great focus on the present. That is undeniably important. But there’s a bigger picture and a long-term lesson here. As integrated as EU economies are, and Draghi’s vision for a single supervisor across the continent would further this, we don’t all have to fall together. Individual countries also have a responsibility to start implementing policies that will create stability and protection for themselves.
www.bbinary.com
Euro steady as Cyprus deal stings The euro languished near four-month lows against the dollar on Tuesday, held back by fears that future euro zone bank rescues could impose a burden on depositors, while the yen struggled after Japan’s central bank chief reaffirmed a commitment to bold easing. The common currency rose 0.2% to $1.2873 after having hit a low near $1.2829 on Monday, its lowest level since November 22. On Monday, the euro tumbled after the head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said the rescue plan agreed for Cyprus will serve as a model for dealing with future banking crises. He later appeared to backtrack, saying Cyprus was a specific case with exceptional challenges. “While these comments were partly retracted, markets have interpreted the message as an indication that private sector
bail-ins will need to play a greater role in any future bail outs,” said Vassili Serebriakov, strategist at BNP Paribas. The euro’s sharp falls against the yen, sterling, Swiss franc and Australian dollar on Monday were exacerbated by speculation of a credit rating downgrade for Italy,
Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, reaffirmed his commitment to bold monetary easing to achieve 2 percent inflation. The yen is still searching for fresh impetus to weaken after reaching a 3-1/2-year low of 96.71 against the dollar on March 12. A near-term focal point is the BOJ’s next
FOREX COMMENTARY & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
which is struggling to form a government after an inconclusive election last month. On Tuesday, the euro saw lackluster gains against the dollar and the yen. The single currency rose 0.2% to 121.29 yen, staying above Monday’s one-month low of 120.08 yen. The dollar held steady at 94.20 yen, finding some support after the new
policy meeting on April 3-4. Many expect the bank will expand its stimulus programme at the next scheduled meeting on April 3-4, or even earlier, and will be keenly watching new BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s parliamentary testimony.
Meanwhile gold inched down on Tuesday toward a key resistance level of $1,600 per ounce as safe-haven demand ebbed after Cyprus clinched a last-ditch rescue deal, but lingering concerns about the health of euro zone’s banking system checked losses. While Cyprus’ deal with international lenders to shut down the country’s second largest bank in return for 10 billion euros in rescue funds removed the immediate risk of a financial meltdown, investors were worried this could set a new precedent in restructuring the euro zone banking sector. Gold, which typically benefits from economic uncertainty, pushed to a three-week high above $1,616 an ounce last week amid worries around the Cyprus bailout. It dropped to a 1-1/2 week low of $1,589.49 on Monday after Cyprus’ 11th-hour deal.
Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19
Who Pays The Piper? Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research One of the many unanswered questions surrounding the eurozone has always been—who would pay for systemic large losses in a banking system? In the US, we always knew that the federal government, through the insurance payments levied via the FDIC, would guarantee all small depositors. In Europe meanwhile the eurocrats issued a post-crisis pan-European promise that every deposit up to €100,000 was guaranteed; even if it was left unclear who would pay for that guarantee in a time of crisis. Then the Cyprus crisis occurred and on first attempt the eurocrats tried to backtrack on the €100,000 promise. Given the uproar, they backtracked again (the eurocrats are nothing if not flexible with the rules) and came up with a very European solution: soak the rich! So we now know that, in Europe, big depositors are the first in the line of fire to ensure that small depositors do not suffer losses. Needless to say, this raises the question of who wants to be a big depositor in a weak bank in a country undergoing a secondary depression This “soak the rich” option also makes one wonder whether the EU is now blatantly against the financial industry? This is a very important question for, in any country, the banks and the government are de facto joined at the hip, dependent on one another to deliver a stable outcome for the underlying economy. However, in the past month, it seems that the EU has opened a multi-front attack on the financial industry. First, there was the EU laws against bank bonuses. Then came the proposals to also cap the bonuses of UCITS fund managers (as everyone remembers the 2008 crisis was triggered by all the cowboy unit-trust managers, doing such things as buying and selling stocks and bonds!) And now, in the past week, EU policymakers have cheerily taken down an offshore banking centre? This is not a comforting pattern. EU policymakers are probably not evil henchmen set on destroying the financial industry (even if it often looks that way from the City of London). The more likely explanation is that EU policymakers are simply ignorant of how financial markets work. For example, the fact that the two largest
Cypriot banks’ London branches have remained opened through the past week, allowing large depositors to take out millions of euros, hints that Europe’s policymakers are simply clueless when it comes to how financial markets work. This also means that whatever pound of flesh the EU thinks it will be getting by wiping out the large depositors could turn out to be on the light side. Or, for a second example of cluelessness, what could rival Monday’s declarations by the Dutch finance minister that the Cyprus bailout set a new “template” on how to deal with bust banks, namely make the rich depositors pay for the little depositors? What large depositor in a troubled bank in a country going through a secondary depression will want to stick around for that deal? We would venture that the next time that “solution” is applied, the eurocrats will find that the large depositors will not have waited around to get fleeced. In fact, as mentioned above, it might not even work this time (i.e., Cyprus), let alone the next one. Going one step beyond the ignorance of how financial markets work, what seems profoundly shocking is the lack of recognition of this ignorance. Place yourself back in the fall of 2008. As the financial crisis was unfolding, the likes of John Mack, Jamie Dimon, John Thane and other banking heads were asked to meet at the New York Fed, the US Treasury or even the US Congress on a regular basis to explain what was unfolding (and what they planned to do about it). Meanwhile, how many times have the heads of Santander, Intesa, SocGen, Deutsche Bank, etc., been called in to explain what was going on, or for them to give their views on what should be done? If asked, perhaps these CEOs would have said that: a) European banks are much more dependent on deposits then their US counterparts. b) Owners of large deposits are likely to be more risk averse and much more active in moving their money than small retail savers (for whom moving money from one country to the next presents high costs and almost insurmountable hurdles). And this for obvious reasons: a 40% haircut on $1,000 is unpleasant but it’s not going to change anyone’s life. But a 40% haircut on a pensioner’s life savings of $500,000 will have a huge impact—and a 40% haircut on any middle-sized company’s $10mn payroll will be enough to bankrupt the business. In fact, this simple reality brings us
back to Mark Twain’s advice that it is always better to tax poor people as there are so much more of them—unfortunately, Europe keeps going the other way, with devastating consequences. c) For these reasons, regulators and governments have never in living memory allowed big banks to default on their depositors, regardless of the wording of formal deposit insurance contracts. If this implicit guarantee is now removed in Europe (and it sure looks like it has been), then we should expect a big shift of large deposits out of the banks and into government bonds or credit market instruments. d) This will prove very problematic, especially given the new Basel III regulations which encouraged a funding model whereby banks should rely more on deposits and less on bonds. e) As savings shift out of banks and into credit markets, the “German bank” model based on bank-financing of industrial companies and long-term creditor-debtor relationships will inevitably erode, to be replaced by the Anglo-Saxon model credit-market financing along with the short-termism which it implies. In other words, the law of unintended consequences is at work: the eurocrats will end up with exactly the opposite of the financial system they wanted. Either that, or the European banks will end up having to be nationalized in great numbers. These two possible outcomes seem to be the logical consequence of the EU’s very unfriendly financial sector policies.
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US wage growth is back! Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research Yesterday investors were pleasantly surprised by a retail sales report that showed a 1.1% MoM increase in the headline number, better than the expected 0.5% gain and the best reading since September of last year. This is especially heartening since many analysts feared consumption would weaken in the first quarter, what with all the tax increases and the ongoing sequester process. So how can we explain this resilience? First, as we highlighted earlier, the positive wealth effect of rising asset values may be helping to boost spending prowess. But recently there is another, and perhaps far more interesting, development: the fact that US wage growth turned a corner and is moving higher. Indeed, US hourly earnings are growing at a pace of 2% YoY and have been rising for four consecutive months—such an acceleration has not been seen since late 2005. Now granted, this wage growth is hardly breathtaking, but nevertheless we believe this is an important trend to follow. After all, as the chart makes clear, wages trends tend to move in long cycles and do not swing around very much. As such, we could be at the start of a larger move. If sustained, this could have a number of important implications: - There’s less slack in the US economy than commonly assumed. If we were truly facing the tremendous deflationary forces that the Krugmanites out there keep warning us about, would wage growth be accelerating? To us, there is a better explanation for rising wages even in the face of still fairly high unemployment. The natural unemployment rate was likely kept artificially low in the boom years, by negative real rates
and an obscenely leveraged housing bonanza. Today, things to triple from here on. Only that it may be a mistake to autoare very different and as such the natural rate of unemploy- matically assume weaker earnings growth at this point in the ment is likely to be higher. It therefore follows that the slack cycle. in the job market may be less than anticipated—and thus - Inflation, Fed policy and the US dollar. It is much too accelerating wage growth is not that surprising. This is anoth- soon to speak of a potentially inflationary impact of wage er way to say that we have had a permanent loss of GDP and growth. At just 2%, this simply is not an issue yet. Having the “output gap” is not as wide as some would have it. said that, the US dollar jumped by almost +0.5% after yester- Support for consumption. Obviously, decent wage day’s retail sales data. At the very least, we would expect that growth should boost consumption. So if this trend is sus- if wage growth continues to pick up, then the Fed is likely to tained, consumer discretionary stocks should benefit. It move away from extremely easy policy settings, to just very would also make us more comfortable with the current hous- very easy. And this should be bullish for the US dollar going ing recovery, since it would then be supported by rising forward. incomes and not just easy money. - A potential margin squeeze. Weekly Economic Calendar Rising wages are not good news for Date Country Detail Forecast Previous corporate margins. But this does MAR 27 EUR German Gfk Consumer Climate due 9.00am 5.9 5.9 not necessarily mean weaker earnMAR 27 GBP Current Account due 11.30am in Sterling pound -12.8B -12.8B ings trends. If consumption picks MAR 27 GBP Final GDP growth Q/Q due 11.30am -0.3% -0.3% up, then we should see stronger MAR 27 EUR Italian 10-year bond auction 4.83/1.7 top-line growth, which could very MAR 27 US Pending Home Sales M/M due 4.00pm -0.30% 4.50% well overwhelm any margin comMAR 28 EUR German Retail Sales M/M due 9.00am -0.50% 3.00% pression from a higher wage bill. MAR 28 EUR German Unemployment Change due 10.55am -2k -3k From 1994 to 1998, wage growth MAR 28 US Weekly Unemployment Claims due 3.30pm 340k 336k rose from 2.4% YoY to 4.5% YoY. MAR 28 US Final GDP growth Q/Q due 3.30pm 0.50% 0.10% Meanwhile, during that same periMAR 28 US Final GDP Price Index Q/Q due 3.30pm 0.90% 0.90% MAR 28 US Chicago PMI due 4.45pm 56.5 56.8 od, US corporate profits doubled MAR 29 EUR Good Friday - Banks closed in Europe and the S&P 500 tripled. MAR 29 US Core PCE Index M/M due 3.30pm 0.10% 0.10% Incidentally, that burst of wage MAR 29 US Personal Spending M/M due 3.30pm 0.60% 0.20% growth came as the US economy MAR 29 US Personal Income M/M due 3.30pm 1.00% -3.60% had started to heal after the savings MAR 29 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment due 4.55pm 73.2 71.8 and loan crisis, another very severe MAR 31 EUR Daylight Saving Time Shift balance sheet recession. We are not Indicated times are Cyprus time Source: Eurivex saying that stock markets are going
March 27 - April 2, 2013
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Sitting on too much money, Norway risks going off course ANALYSIS Middle East-style oil wealth combined with a generous Nordic welfare model is slowly throttling big chunks of Norway’s economy, threatening western Europe’s biggest success story. On the surface, Norway is the envy of the world: growth is strong, per capita GDP has exceeded $100,000 and the nation sits on a $700 bln rainy day cash reserve, or $140,000 per man, woman and child. But it may just be too much money as Norwegians, more keen on leisure and family life are working less and less. Immigration is not filling the gap in the skilled part of the workforce, so productivity is stagnating, wages are surging and firms are pricing themselves out of their own market. “Oil is a metaphor for winning the lottery,” said Ivar Froeness, a sociology professor at the University of Oslo. “Affluence has slowly crept into society... people just don’t really notice it because it’s been so gradual.” “These days more people leave Oslo on Thursday afternoon than on Friday, taking long weekends,” he said. “We may take for granted that we have a house and a cabin in the mountain, and maybe another house on the beach.” Wage costs are up 63% since 2000, about six times more than in Germany or Sweden, while the employment rate, adjusted for part time work, is 61%, below rates anywhere in the Nordics and even below Greece, the central bank says. Still, unemployment is a barely visible 3% as more prefer part time work. “Why should I work more when I don’t have to?” said Elise Bakke, 36, who recently cut her work day at a major telecom firm to 6 hours. “Maybe it’s luck, maybe we earned it, it doesn’t really matter. We have the money to live the Nordic life: go to the cabin, ski, bike, spend time with the children.”
The government recently warned that unless working hours are increased by 10% over time, the state will eventually start eating into its savings. The central bank also warned that the welfare model is simply encouraging people to leave the labour market. “The number of working hours for full time employees in Norway have fallen by 270 hours a year since 1974,” says Jostein Hansen, director of employment policies at Norwegian Hospitality Association. “Norwegians should follow Iceland’s example and work 100 hours more a year.”
OIL UNDER THREAT
The oil sector, the source of the problem, is also becoming a victim of its own success. Aker Solutions, the nation’s top oil services firm, will hire 4,000 engineers this year but only a third will be Norwegians. A study commissioned by the government showed that by 2016, the country will have a shortage of 6,000 engineers as oil investment hits new records and oil firms tap reserves in areas once thought close to depleted. Costs have risen so much, some oil services firms cannot compete at home. Kvaerner, which builds heavy equipment like oil platforms, recently lost a key contract from state-controlled Statoil to Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering because it was too expensive. It was a just the latest of many setbacks for the firm. “The Norwegian cost level is our challenge,” Jan Arve Haugan, its chief executive said. “High (quality) cannot outweigh that price difference,” he said, adding its prices are 7-15% higher than its competitors’. Norwegian Air Shuttle has threatened to move aircraft to Thailand and operate to Europe with an Asian crew because it says it can’t afford the Nordic costs. Norway’s problems are not unique: Australia’s once-in-a150-year mining boom has also skewed the economy, raising
wages, fuelling immigration and lowering work hours to a 30year low as wealth grows. Still, an average Australian works 19% more than a Norwegian, the OECD estimates. And Norway’s oil sector accounts for a fifth of the economy, three times as much as mining in Australia, generating a quarter of state the revenues. Business groups say work hours have to be raised through government incentives, and benefits, particularly involving various leaves, need to be reduced. Though political parties generally agree, the topic is low on the agenda, especially with elections looming in September.
IMMIGRATION
Norway has embraced immigration as a stop-gap measure but it is only masking the problem, the central bank says. “Measured per capita, we do not generate more value today than we did five years ago,” Norges Bank Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a speech recently. Norway, with a population of 5 mln, attracts around 50,000 immigrants each year, but productivity is not improving. Norway’s egalitarian wage distribution pays low-skilled workers well above the European average but pays the higherskilled at, or even a touch below, international norms.
Quitting the Quota HONG KONG – On March 1, China’s State Council announced a new batch of restrictions aimed at reining in property prices by curbing speculative demand. The measures include tighter limits on home purchases by nonlocals in cities with excessive price gains, a reinforced 20% capital-gains tax, mandatory 70% down payments, and a 30% benchmark interest-rate premium for second mortgages. While the previous round of housing-sector restrictions, implemented less than two years ago, dampened market sentiment temporarily, it failed to curb rising property prices. Likewise, although the latest measures might have some impact, cooling China’s turbulent property market – which relies on cheap credit – in the long term will require addressing underlying monetary-policy weaknesses. In order to control the money supply, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has long used credit quotas as “window guidance” to banks. The policy is rooted in central planning, which, three decades ago, led to artificially low prices and, in turn, to shortages of basic necessities and key production inputs, such as grain and steel. As the free market developed, a dual-price system emerged, in which those with access to quota-allocated goods paid less. As a result, the government was compelled to grant subsidies to the system’s “losers” – such as urban residents and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) – until strong supply responses to rising market prices eliminated the need for quotas on manufactured products. A decade later, in response to the global financial crisis, China loosened credit quotas and planning controls on SOErun local-government infrastructure projects. Between November 2008 and June 2009, China’s banks issued more than ¥8.6 trillion ($1.3 trillion) in new loans. As a result, the rate of credit growth increased from 14% in September 2008 to 35% a year later, and property prices more than doubled in many cities. Excessively low interest rates have generated a mismatch between housing prices and the available supply, because they serve as hidden subsidies for those who can borrow – for example, the rich and SOEs – and thus stimulate demand for luxury property. In order to curb this trend, policymakers have reverted to the quota as a macroeconomic tool, but this time for housing credit. Like quotas on manufactured products, these new quotas
are generating a dual-price allocation system, in which SOEs can borrow at significantly lower interest rates than small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), which must rely on the informal market at interest rates as high as 2% monthly. But eliminating quotas in order to allow prices to reach marketclearing levels is not an option this time, owing to the complexity and competitiveness of the real-estate and bankcredit markets. Three major factors are impeding policymakers from raising interest rates to market-clearing levels. First, the domestic interest groups that benefit from low borrowing costs have become a barrier to their liberalization. There is a
By Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng “common-sense consensus” among borrowers – in China, as well as in highly indebted advanced economies – that raising interest rates would undermine GDP growth, employment, and asset prices. Second, many argue that raising interest rates would trigger a flood of speculative capital from low-yielding advanced economies. With the PBOC unable to sterilize the inflows, upward pressure on the renminbi’s exchange rate would threaten competitiveness. Finally, an inadequate understanding of structural inflation (the growth in prices for non-tradable assets) has generated the false belief that China can maintain similar levels of inflation and exchange-rate stability as the OECD economies. As a result, over the last decade, the Chinese authorities’ implicit target for annual inflation and currency appreciation has been only about 3%. But China has attained much higher GDP growth than the OECD economies, driven largely by the rapid productivity gains that characterize the initial “catch up” phase of emerging-market development. As China continues to implement market-oriented reforms, the prices of non-
tradable assets – such as property, natural resources, utilities, services, and wages – will continue to rise much faster than in the OECD countries, until they eventually converge. This process will inevitably lead to higher structural inflation and currency appreciation in China. If nominal interest rates are lower than the real return on investment – associated with GDP growth – the result is financial repression and increased income and wealth inequality. To avoid this outcome, as long as China’s GDP growth exceeds that of OECD economies, its nominal interest rates must also be higher, its exchange rate must be more flexible, and it must tolerate higher structural inflation. Indeed, despite domestic resistance, the PBOC must raise nominal interest rates so that they are in line with structural inflation. Such a move would deter excessive investment in productive capacity, and ease the implementation of a more flexible exchange-rate regime. At the same time, one need only recall the damage that unregulated carry trades wrought on Asian economies in the 1990’s to understand why China must erect barriers to protect its domestic markets from inflows of hot money. The alternative to this price-oriented approach – continued dependence on the quota system – would incur considerable administrative expenses, efficiency losses, and social costs stemming from rent-seeking and corruption. Much like the quota system of 30 years ago, the current reliance on quotas is unsustainable in the long term. To manage exorbitant demand for financial and physical assets, China’s leaders must address its root cause: the low cost of capital. Doing so will require maintaining some capital-account control, while raising interest rates to market-clearing levels. This, not the unsustainable imposition of quotas, is the real monetary-policy challenge facing China today. Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2013.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
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Easy Fed softens fiscal policy punch on U.S. ANALYSIS The Federal Reserve’s aggressive easing of monetary policy is proving surprisingly effective at blunting the blow to the U.S. economy from tighter fiscal policy, according to economists who have been scrambling to raise their growth forecasts. Economists had feared higher taxes and deep government spending cuts would stunt growth in the first quarter, but a string of strong economic data has so far proven them wrong. And they mostly blame the Fed. “Monetary policy is beginning to gain some traction here,” said Tom Higgins, global macro strategist at Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston. According to Higgins, if it were not for the monetary stimulus, the economy would probably be facing growth of a 1% annual rate or less. As it is, he expects growth to come in at a 2.5% pace in the first quarter. The U.S. central bank has held overnight interest rates near zero since December 2008 and has pumped about $2.5 trln into the economy by purchasing Treasury debt and mortgagebacked bonds in a bid to foster faster growth and lower unemployment. On Wednesday, it recommitted to plans to buy $85 bln worth of bonds each month and said it would keep buying assets until it sees a significant improvement in the labor market. Those actions have helped put the economy in better shape to deal with the end of a 2% payroll tax cut, higher tax rates for wealthy Americans and $85 bln in across-the-board government spending cuts known as the “sequester.” The easy money stance has given a boost to interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, such as autos and housing. The commitment to easy policy also appears to be lifting business confidence, which in turn is underpinning job growth and the stock market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 236,000 in February and the jobless rate fell to a four-year low of 7.7%. “The message from the data is that in the battle between
fiscal drag and monetary stimulus, the Fed is winning,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. Stunned by a surprisingly strong report on retail sales last week, most economists rushed to raise first-quarter growth estimates. JPMorgan pushed theirs up by an eye-catching eight-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, while Goldman Sachs increased theirs by three-tenths of a point to 2.9%. Economic activity expanded at a meager 0.1% rate in the last three months of last year, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2011.
MADE A MISTAKE
Economists also said they had been mistaken to believe that businesses would retrench if it became clear deep government spending cuts were going to take hold. They said they had simply been drawing on lessons learned during the acrimonious fight in 2011 to raise the government’s borrowing limit, a battle that hit confidence hard. “The chance we decided to take was for a more upfront impact from sequestration; in reality that is not what we are seeing,” said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist, Mesirow Financial in Chicago. “Businesses have taken it at a more leisurely pace.” Indeed, a Deloitte Growth Enterprise Services survey of about 1,000 mid-market executives this month found little evidence the spending cuts were worrying businesses. About 72% of respondents said sequestration would not affect their businesses and 91% said they had not put off hiring because of the cuts. That could be an indication of the confidence generated by the Fed’s willingness to aid the economy, economists say. Also helping the economy is the fact that banks are starting to ease lending standards and household balance sheets have improved after being ravaged by the housing market’s collapse. “What we have been seeing for a while is households have worked down their debt loads and they are now starting to expand their borrowing and, across the board, bank lending is increasing,” said Steve Cunningham, head of research at the
American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, Massachusetts. “So monetary policy is becoming effective in that respect.” Fed data this month showed household debt in the fourth quarter grew at its fastest pace since early 2008, while a measure of the burden of carrying debt sank to a record low. In addition, consumer credit has increased solidly from last year through January of this year and banks in January reported stronger loan demand and easier credit standards. Still, the economy is not out of the woods by any means. Part of the expected bounce back in growth this quarter will come from a buildup in business inventories, which means second quarter growth could fall short of the January-March rate. As a result of the economy’s firmer underlying strength, many analysts now estimate government budget cuts could shave off about 0.3 percentage point from GDP this year, half of what was predicted by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. “The drag from sequestration is probably a little bit smaller than we thought a month ago,” said Mesirow Financial’s Laurenti. “We have a better economy that is in a better position to absorb a negative shock.”
Global Markets’ Time Factor BARCELONA – In recent months, the dichotomy between booming financial markets, on the one hand, and sluggish economies and dysfunctional politics, on the other, has loomed large. Yet insufficient attention is being devoted to a critical factor – time, and who controls it – that could well mean the difference between an orderly global resolution of today’s growing inconsistencies and a return to a more troubled phase. Markets have been understandably buoyant in the first quarter of 2013. Most economic data confirm that, after the trauma caused by the global financial crisis, the United States’ economy is healing, and doing so in an accelerated fashion. The sequence is now well established. It started with large multinational companies, which are on as solid a financial footing as I can remember. Smaller firms are gradually recuperating; banks have rebuilt their capital cushions and reduced their dubious assets; the housing sector has stabilized; and a growing number of households are reestablishing healthier balance sheets, especially as employment gradually picks up. This private-sector recovery is helping government finances. The US budget deficit has been on a downward trend for now, helped by both higher revenues and lower pressure on spending (for example, payments to the unemployed have fallen as joblessness has declined). The healing process is also evident in Europe, though, unfortunately, it is effectively limited only to sovereign-bond markets. The real economy remains under enormous pressure in several countries, as economies contract and unemployment remains alarmingly high. After flirting with disaster last July, interest-rate spreads for eurozone bonds have generally been subdued, and financial segmentation has been slowly reversed (that is, at least before European officials embarked on the controversial path of trying to impose losses on guaranteed bank deposits in Cyprus). Moreover, as Ireland’s highly successful ?5 billion ten-year bond issue in mid-March demonstrated, some countries are in the process of restoring normal access to capital markets. The impact on markets of these trends has been turbocharged by central banks, which are risk markets’ best friends. This is not because they wish to play that role; rather, it is because higher asset prices are essential if central bankers stand any chance of delivering the desired economic outcomes
of higher growth and stronger job creation. This is most evident in the US, where markets love the Federal Reserve’s trifecta of near-zero policy interest rates (negative in real terms), aggressive forward policy guidance, and asset purchases – all of which push investors to take more risk. Markets also welcome the fact that the Fed’s hyperactive experimentation is forcing other central banks around the world to pursue more expansionary policies. Indeed, from the Bank of Japan’s dramatic policy U-turn to the Bank of Mexico’s surprise interest-rate cuts, the Fed’s approach is affecting central banks in a growing number of
By Mohamed A. El-Erian
countries. Pushed further away from best-case scenarios, they are unable to ignore the global liquidity impact of the Fed’s policies, yet they lack the right policy tools to address it. The mix of endogenous healing and strong central-bank tailwinds, including from a “whatever it takes” European Central Bank, has also helped markets shrug off troubling political uncertainties. Be it the US Congress’s paralyzing polarization or Italy’s protest vote against the established political order, politicians are being given time to overcome their dysfunction, thereby minimizing any immediate disruptive impact. Understandably, investors have interpreted all of this as a green light to take more risk. And with the hype this month over eight successive records for the Dow Jones index (and many other records around the world), excitement induces more investors to enter riskier asset markets. The excitement is not anxiety-free, however, and rightly so. Investors worry about the longer-term consequences of political dysfunction, another year of European economic contraction, disastrously high unemployment, unprecedented – and thus untested – central bank policies, and increasing global ten-
sions. And the recent bungling of the Cyprus rescue does not help. No wonder some have called the recent market rally “one of the most unloved” in history. This mix of excitement and anxiety is, in fact, a sign of the looming crossroads that faces investors. One road, involving a relatively orderly handoff from policy-assisted recovery to selfsustaining growth, offers the possibility of even greater financial rewards, as rapidly improving economic and political conditions validate current artificial pricing and drive it higher. The other road is a lot less attractive. With insufficient endogenous healing and no economic escape velocity, the effectiveness of central banks’ policies wanes and political dysfunction increases, leading to financial losses, volatility spikes, and huge risk-management challenges. Given current policy and political uncertainties – and the multiple equilibria that they entail – it is difficult to predict with a high degree of confidence which road eventually will be taken and when. Those who claim otherwise may well fail to appreciate fully the exceptional nature of the current situation. In these circumstances, timing may not be everything, but it may prove to be a key determinant of the probabilities. If the journey to the crossroads is accelerated by a large geopolitical shock (originating in, say, the Middle East or North Korea) and/or a serious political breakdown in Europe (for example, a meltdown in Cyprus or prolonged political paralysis in Italy), the probability of taking the adverse path rises to an uncomfortably high level. If, however, central banks can contain domestic and global inconsistencies long enough, the combination of endogenous healing and eventual political progress would significantly improve the probability distribution. Have no doubt: today’s markets rely heavily on the old adage that “time heals all wounds.” The timekeepers are central banks. But their control of the clock is less than perfect; and it will become increasingly ineffective if economic improvement faces additional political headwinds in the months ahead. Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and the author of When Markets Collide. © Project Syndicate, 2013. www.project-syndicate.org
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Second “Shareholder Spring” unlikely to bloom in Europe l
New UK law to give binding say on pay ANALYSIS
While politicians and public have fulminated against lottery-sized pay awards in Europe’s boardrooms, fund firms, which wield the real power, are less concerned by such excesses and unlikely to use new powers to revolt on remuneration. Last year’s so-called “Shareholder Spring” against bosses’ salaries in Britain toppled few CEOs, and institutional investors typically prefer to keep battles with boards private. “Generally there is a reluctance among UK and European shareholders to vote against management,” said Louise Rouse, director of engagement with lobby group ShareAction. A rapid rise in boardroom pay at a time of dwindling average incomes and soaring unemployment has made remuneration a hot political topic, particularly in Europe, where taxpayers face years of austerity to help pay for bank bailouts. Germany’s ruling coalition, facing an election in September, recently agreed to give shareholders binding votes on bosses’ pay at listed companies, following the example of Britain and Switzerland, whose citizens this month forced public companies to give shareholders veto rights over executive salaries. EU member states and the bloc’s parliament, meanwhile, have finished draft legislation that will impose the world’s toughest limits on bankers’ bonuses. Unlike the U.S., where the law limits investor access to top executives and therefore encourages public spats at AGMs, European investors can - and prefer to - voice their opposition behind closed doors. And while the size of salaries and bonus packages paid to some executives has horrified the general public, investors are more concerned the award is in proportion with their returns. “Our job as asset managers is not to serve as arbiters on what is fair and not fair in a societal context,” said George Dallas, corporate governance director at F&C Investments.
SCRUTINY OF VOTES
Last year, a number of high-profile shareholder votes against pay forced the departures of some well-rewarded CEOs, including Sly Bailey of British newspaper group Trinity Mirror
and Andrew Moss of British insurer Aviva. But these were isolated revolts. Analysing 300 AGMs from 2012, shareholder advisory firm PIRC said the average level of dissent against remuneration reports was 7.64%, compared with 6.4% in 2011. Shareholders were also inconsistent in their attacks. WPP, the world’s biggest advertising company, suffered defeat over its pay policy in part because CEO Martin Sorrell was in line for a bonus of up to 500% of pay. But only 11.8% of shareholders voted against oil firm BP’s remuneration report, despite a maximum potential award for CEO Bob Dudley of 923% of base salary. In Switzerland, where over two thirds of voters backed the referendum on executive pay - often referred to as “the Minder Initiative” because it was the brainchild of local businessman Thomas Minder - investors have traditionally shied away from taking on the “fat cat” issue. Of the top 100 Swiss companies, 49 already gave shareholders a non-binding vote on the pay of executives, but investors there have not been eager to vote remuneration reports down. No fewer than 99.6% of shareholders approved Roche’s pay plans at this month’s AGM, even though shareholder group Ethos said it was too lucrative and urged its rejection. Some shareholder activists in Switzerland are doubtful that much will change even with the referendum. Under the proposals, Swiss pension funds will be forced to vote on pay and publish how they voted, but other managers of bundled investors’ assets will not have to declare how they vote. Under legislation to be implemented this year, British investors can choose to keep their votes private, stirring concerns that popular anger over high pay is less likely to be translated into action in Europe’s largest equity market. “We’re in favour of giving more power to shareholders, but we think it is essential those powers are used, and there is nothing in the package to ensure that they are used,” said Rouse. The European Commission is planning to introduce legislation this year giving shareholders a mandatory say on corporate pay in all 27 countries of the European Union.
REPUTATION
Under the new law, UK companies will have to give a single figure of total pay for each director to make comparison easier. “The key point is remuneration reports are now exceedingly long, and I’m not sure, at the end of it, shareholders come away with any greater clarity on whether the incentive schemes are an effective alignment and accountability mechanism,” said Simon Wong, partner at Investor Governance for Owners. To improve their focus on corporate governance, more fund firms are starting to collaborate, giving votes more weight. “Shareholders are more aware of each others’ views so our thinking is more aligned. Once that happens, you have more power behind you. We always did exchange views, but we are now much more aware of the need to flag concerns to one another if we want to see change,” said Anita Skipper, corporate governance adviser at Aviva Investors Global Responsible Investment team. Veteran businessman Mike Darrington, who ran British bakery chain Greggs for almost 25 years and now heads pressure group “Pro Business Against Greed” believes one of the best opportunities to cut CEO pay is when new people are hired. “It is got to be a change in attitudes that gradually brings things down,” he said. So far, evidence of a revolution is patchy. Man Group, the world’s second largest hedge fund, is limiting cash bonuses to 250% of salary for top executives as part of a change in policy under new CEO Emmanuel Roman. Swiss bank UBS, meanwhile, gave its new investment bank chief a $26 mln golden hello even as it cuts 10,000 jobs. At Barclays, while Antony Jenkins’s annual base CEO salary of 1.1 mln pounds is nearly 20% less than predecessor Bob Diamond’s 2011 equivalent, he could still earn 6.5 times that in bonuses and long-term awards.
Britain eases rules for start-up banks Smarter regulatory reform l
Could begin trading within 6 months, with reduced capital requirements for first 3-5 years
Start-up banks in Britain will not need as much capital as their established rivals starting from April, Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) said, in a move to boost competition. Under pressure from MPs to increase choice in a sector dominated by four banks, the FSA unveiled sweeping changes to authorise new entrants within six months, a process that currently takes a year or more. Capital requirements will be lighter for the first three to five years as long as a new bank can show deposits are insured and that it can be wound up easily without destabilising markets. A new bank will need a core capital buffer equivalent to only 4.5% of its risk-weighted assets, a level that will be increased as the bank expands. This is well below the 7 to 9.5% that applies to Britain’s “big five” lenders with 83% of retail accounts - HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, RBS and Santander UK. There will also be reduced liquidity requirements, the FSA said. “This has been a comprehensive review and we have made some bold changes, ones that respond to the difficulties faced by applicant firms,” FSA Chairman Adair Turner said in a statement. New entrants have already begun to surface in the
wake of the 2008 financial crisis, looking to fill the gap as the big banks focus on shrinking their balance sheets and building up capital reserves to meet new regulations. Metro Bank became the first new high street lender to emerge for over 100 years when it was granted a banking licence in 2010. Other new challengers such as Aldermore and Shawbrook have also emerged but have opted not to open branches. Aldermore was founded in 2009 with backing from private equity firms AnaCap and Morgan Stanley Alternative Investment Partners. Its loan book now totals over 2 bln pounds, and it is the sixthlargest lender in the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), which provides cheap funds for lending to small firms and households. New entrants still face a big challenge in taking on existing lenders, which have branches across the country and whose payment systems the start-ups still have to use. The Bank of England’s director of financial stability, Andrew Haldane, has mooted a common payment systems platform that all banks could use to level the playing field for entrants. The changes are among the FSA’s last policy announcements before the regulator is scrapped on March 31.
could save banks 24% of costs New research from PwC has found that if banks adopted a smarter approach to their regulatory reform programmes, they could save 24% of the costs of their implementation programmes. Banks face a number of challenges as the unprecedented wave of regulatory demands is continuing to gather force. Looking ahead, conditions are expected to remain challenging over a long period. Consideration of the continuous stream of regulatory announcements, consultation papers and reviews highlights the fact that this is set to get even more complex over the next few years. More agile, proactive and coordinated planning and execution will allow banks to: - Improve on poor delivery quality. The vast majority of organisations not employing portfolio management reported that less than 10% of projects met the key performance indicators. This phenomenon was even starker for more complex portfolios. - Reduce financial costs associated with programme overrun. The average project overrun is 24% of budget and schedule, although this number increases by a factor of ten in many of the larger, more complex projects facing ‘black swan’ risk events. “Banks have always faced regulatory-driven change. What sets the current environment apart is the sheer volume of significant new regulation being introduced,” said Stelios Constantinou, Partner in charge of the banking industry at PwC Cyprus. “Factors complicating the volume of work to be done include tight timelines, the degree of uncertainty around interpretation and inconsistency between regulators – all of which aggravate the delivery risk. Plus, the regulations require banks to fundamentally address the way they do business and so command a significant part of their annual change budgets,” Constantinou added.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
financialmirror.com | GREECE | 23
Piraeus buys Cyprus bank units for €524 mln l Signs deal to buy all 3 Cypriot banks which will make it Greece’s second-largest by assets Piraeus Bank has agreed to buy the operations of stricken Cypriot banks in Greece for 524 mln euros in a deal hastily cobbled together to protect the Greek banking sector from the island’s debt crisis. The deal, funded by Greece’s bank bailout fund HFSF, means 312 local branches of the three Cypriot banks will reopen on Wednesday after being shut since March 19 as Cyprus scrambled to strike a bailout deal to prevent an economic meltdown. The transfer of the branches, which represent about a tenth of Greece’s banking market, was part of the international bailout to help shield Greek lenders from the island’s crisis and allow Cyprus to shrink its bloated banking sector. Piraeus, with a market cap of 265 mln euros, beat out rival Alpha Bank to acquire the Greek operations of Bank of Cyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank and Hellenic Bank. “Customer deposits with the Greek branches of Bank of Cyprus, Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB) and Hellenic Bank are not subject to any bank levy or haircut that has been agreed in Cyprus,” Piraeus said.
The deal will make Piraeus Greece’s second-largest bank with combined assets of 95 bln euros, overtaking current number two Alpha Bank, and a network of 1,660 branches and 24,000 employees. It will have deposits of 50 bln euros and net loans of 74 bln, meaning a loans-to-deposits ratio of 120%. A bank source with direct knowledge of the deal said the enlarged Piraeus would have too many branches and could achieve synergies by closing as many as 500 over the next three years. “The message is, yes, there are going to be branch closures, that will clearly affect headcount, but headcount will be rationalized in a socially responsible manner,” the source said. Piraeus, which was advised by Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Lazard on the deal, said its ratio of non-performing loans will rise to 26% from 21% after the takeover. Greek banks including Piraeus will themselves be recapitalised to shore up their solvency ratios. Most of the cash injection will be provided by a state bank bailout fund - the
Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF). Piraeus’s capital needs have been estimated by Greece’s central bank at 7.3 bln euros. The 524 mln euros for the Cypriot acquisitions will be supplied by the HFSF in exchange for shares, an official at the fund told Reuters. The deal will increase the group’s market share in deposits to 27% from 19% and its share of loans to 28 from 18%. Piraeus has already taken over the healthy part of state lender ATEbank and French lender Societe Generale’s Geniki as part of a wave of consolidation in the sector to cope with the debt crisis and a deep recession. The group is also in talks to acquire the Greek unit of Portugal’s biggest bank Millennium BCP. “The transaction represents another important step towards the restructuring of the Greek banking system in which Piraeus has participated from the very beginning as a core pillar,” the bank said. Piraeus shares, which had rallied 20% on Friday when it was picked as a buyer by Greece’s bank bailout fund, were down 1.7% on Tuesday.
OPAP sale at risk of legal challenge The flagship sale of the Greek government’s stake in betting monopoly OPAP is being challenged by two of the potential buyers, who say the sale is not being run fairly. Two of the eight initial suitors for the 33% stake have independently written to OPAP and the Greek privatisation agency HRADF complaining the process is not being run in a transparent and objective way. Both suitors - a bid vehicle called Emma Delta backed by Greek shipping tycoon George Melisanidis and Czech investor Jiri Smejc, and a consortium led by gaming equipment company Gauselmann and gaming software group Playtech - threaten to take legal action if necessary. Any setback to the sale could have broader economic implications for Greece, given that the stake in OPAP, worth around 660 mln euros at current share prices, is being sold by Athens under privatisation plans which were a key part of the country’s EU/IMF bailout. The government expects to raise 11 bln euros from privatisations by 2016. “Our company certainly reserves any and all of its rights to use any legal possible means, including the possibility of submission of indictments and notices for the investigation of possible punitive acts,” said the letter from Emma Delta. Among the complaints in the letters, dated earlier this month and seen by Reuters, is a decision by OPAP to renew an IT services contract with local gaming software firm Intralot, one of the other potential bidders.
BOUND FOR THE FUTURE
Intralot, one of the world’s biggest gaming software providers, has been OPAP’s IT contractor since at least 2001, when OPAP was listed on the Athens bourse. Its latest contract expires in July and OPAP considers its renewal, which it said would cost 109 mln euros for services and capital expenditure plus at least 46 mln euros for maintenance, is vital for its smooth operation. The Gauselmann letter said the contract, for the provision and maintenance of a new central hardware and software system, would involve OPAP paying more than it had stated,
and the buyer of the government’s stake should have a say in it. Both letters also said potential buyers had not been provided with details of the contract, despite the successful bidder being bound to it for as long as five years. In its letter, Emma Delta also calls on the privatisation agency to investigate the legality of the participation of companies linked to Intralot in the OPAP privatisation process. “OPAP, which is the target company, ‘gives a bonus’ to the technical provider by a new agreement and reinforces the financial and cash liquidity of the group and the related group companies, giving in such a way an advantage in the competition process,” the letter said. OPAP holds monopolies in Greek sports betting and lotteries until 2020 and 2030 respectively. It also holds an exclusive 10-year licence for video lottery terminals and a 12year licence to offer scratch cards. Final bids for OPAP are due in the second half of April, but contenders must state the final composition of their
consortiums by March 28. Private equity firms TPG Capital and BC Partners, activist investor fund Third Point, Triple Five World Group Properties and a unit of Chinese conglomerate Fosun, also responded to a November 9 deadline for expressions of interest, along with Intralot, Gauselmann-Playtech and Emma Delta.
OPAP postpones EGM to April 6 Betting monopoly OPAP, one of Europe’s biggest gambling firms, has postponed a shareholder meeting to discuss the renewal of a key IT services contract to give Greece’s privatisation agency HRADF more time to study the agenda. The agency is selling all but 1% of the government’s 34% stake in OPAP, which wanted shareholder approval on Tuesday to renew a deal with local gaming software provider Intralot. Analysts said deferring the meeting, rescheduled for April 6, would not delay the sale which is expected to go ahead in the next few weeks as part of Greece’s bailout programme. HRADF said in a statement its newly appointed board of directors needed more time to study the meeting’s agenda.
Intralot, one of the world’s biggest gaming software providers, has been OPAP’s IT contractor since at least 2001, when OPAP was listed on the Athens bourse. Their latest contract expires in July and OPAP considers its renewal, worth 109 million euros, vital for its smooth operation. OPAP has annual sales of about 4 bln euros and a 33% stake would be worth nearly 715 mln, based on the company’s current market capitalisation on the Athens Stock Exchange. The company, in which big U.S. hedge and investment funds including Baupost Group own a stake, holds a national monopoly on sports gambling until 2020 and on lotteries until 2030. It also has the exclusive licence to launch video lotto terminals in the country.
Aegean offers concessions for Olympic deal, EU decision by April 23 Aegean Airlines has offered concessions to try to win approval for its second bid for rival Olympic Air, EU antitrust regulators said, extending their review of the takeover deal to April 23. Aegean has said the 72-mln-euro bid is key to its survival in Greece’s shrinking air transport market, as the bailed-out country suffers a protracted recession. The European Commission announced the new deadline for a decision on its website, but did not give details of the concessions offered, in line with its standard policy. Aegean agreed to buy Olympic from Marfin Investment Group (MIG) in October.
Some antitrust experts said its chances of winning clearance may have improved due to its shrinking market share and the recent addition of Cyprus Airways routes into Greece. But that argument might be undermined by an investigation opened by competition regulators earlier this month into state aid granted to the Cypriot airline. The Commission blocked Aegean’s 170-mln-euro first bid two years ago to buy debt-ridden Olympic, because of the dominance the group would have had on the domestic market. And the Commission, which acts as competition regulator in the 27-country European Union, last month rejected a
third attempt by Ryanair to buy Aer Lingus, again citing the merged company’s market dominance. The only time the Commission has cleared a deal after blocking it the first time was when packaging firm Tetra Laval and rival Sidel won approval in 2003 after a court challenge. Olympic, founded in 1957 by the late shipping magnate Aristotle Onassis, went into a steady decline after being operated for decades by the Greek government, saddling the state budget with losses. The tourism industry accounts for about one in five jobs in Greece, making it a key part of economic recovery.
March 27 - April 2, 2013
24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com
GLOBAL ECONOMY
As euro zone suffers, emerging markets thrive l
BRICS quintet to bask in South Africa summit spotlight; Emerging markets’ growth good for West, but not cost-free
No matter how Cyprus’s financial drama ends, its troubles show yet again that rich countries enfeebled by the great financial crisis remain a weak link in the world economy. By comparison, emerging markets are not only looking stronger but are also contributing more consistently to global growth. At worst, if Cyprus has to abandon the euro, fragmentation of the single-currency bloc would chill investment and could reduce trend growth in the euro zone’s four major economies by a full percentage point on average in the period 2015-2020, according to economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Under that scenario, trend growth in Germany could fall to zero, they said. Even if a solution is found that keeps the tiny Mediterranean island afloat, the inept handling of the crisis has revived political risk. Confidence in the euro zone economy, already relapsing after a fairly bright start to the year, can only suffer. Several banks lowered their forecasts for the bloc on the heels of grim purchasing managers’ surveys, and a clutch of sentiment indicators and money supply figures this week are likely to further underscore the economy’s precarious position. While policy makers in the euro zone struggle to keep the single currency together, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) will meet this week in Durban, South Africa, to strengthen the foundations of emerging markets’ growth. The summit is expected to give the go-ahead for a joint foreign exchange reserves pool as well as an infrastructure bank. The initiative is being hatched partly out of frustration with international financial institutions that they judge to primarily reflect the interests of industrialised countries. Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset
Management, noted that, for all the havoc that Cyprus can potentially cause, its annual output of $22 bln is no more than China produces in a week.
By Alan Wheatley Global Economics Correspondent, Reuters “For the Cyprus fiasco week to be followed by a BRICS summit week sums up the changing fortunes of global economic development,” O’Neill, who coined the BRICS acronym in 2001, said.
SOURCE OF STRENGTH
Portugal, mired in recession due to austerity measures demanded by international lenders, provides a vivid illustration of the growing importance of emerging markets. The number of Brazilians visiting Portugal has been growing by double digits for more than five years, according to Francisco Calheiros, president of the Portuguese Tourism Confederation. Sales to China from Volkswagen’s factory outside Lisbon, the country’s second-largest exporter, jumped 54% in 2012 even though the plant’s total output fell 15%. Angola is now Portugal’s fourth-largest market, accounting for 6.6% of its exports - more than the United States. “This is how we’ve been able to grow our exports, which is the only component in our GDP which is going up,” said Joao Leite, an economist with Banco Carregosa in Lisbon. Global figures illustrate the relative vigour of developing
countries. Trade in goods between advanced economies is down by 6% over the past four years whereas trade among emerging markets is up by 38%, according to Ebrahim Rahbari and Deimante Kupciuniene, economists at Citi. “Trade transformation towards emerging markets has a long way to go,” they said in a report.
EYE ON EMERGING MARKETS
A stronger net export performance is one reason why the United States grew modestly in the fourth quarter 2012 after a preliminary report that the economy shrank. Thursday’s final revision for GDP for the October-December period is likely to show a 0.5% rate of growth, according to economists polled by Reuters. Among the week’s other data highlights, U.S. durable goods orders and personal income are both expected to have rebounded in February from a swoon in January induced in part by an increase in payroll taxes. The debate in the United States on whether free trade is to blame for the stagnation of middle-class incomes and rising inequality is likely to heat up as talks over transatlantic and transpacific market-opening deals gather momentum. In a study for the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, Lawrence Edwards and Robert Lawrence acknowledge that some of the public’s fears are well founded because free trade can cause short-term job losses that put communities under strain. But they conclude that rapid growth in emerging markets is part of the solution to America’s problems, not their source, because a rising tide lifts all boats. “Developing country growth has therefore contributed toward faster U.S. export growth, an increase in the variety of imports available to Americans, and higher terms of trade associated with any given trade balance,” they wrote.