As of this week, the Financial Mirror is more compact, with a fresh design and full of colour. Times are a changing and we have adopted the novel digital printing technology for newspapers at the Milkro plant in Nicosia that allows us to print a full-colour edition with the minimum in paper waste. We’ll be waiting to hear your comments on what you like and what you’d like to see more (or less) in the only business newspaper in Cyprus.
FinancialMirror
€1.00 Issue No. 983 June 6-12, 2012
Spain
shut out
of markets
PAGE 2
PROMETHEUS: Theo Panayotou argues why Cyprus should voluntarily join the EFSF
...give us your budget ...and we’ll give you a solution!
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FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
2 | NEWS
Spain shut out of markets G7 takes no action on Eurozone Spain said on Tuesday that credit markets were closing to the euro zone's fourth biggest economy as finance chiefs of the Group of Seven major economies conferred on the currency bloc's worsening debt crisis but took no joint action. Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro sent out a dramatic distress signal about the impact of his country's banking crisis on government borrowing, saying that at current rates, financial markets were effectively shut to Spain. "The risk premium says Spain doesn't have the market door open," Montoro said on Onda Cero radio. "The risk premium says that as a state we have a problem in accessing markets, when we need to refinance our debt." Spain is beset by bank debts triggered by the bursting of a real estate bubble in 2008, aggravated by overspending by its autonomous regions. The premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year debt rather than safe haven German bonds hit a euro era high of 548 basis points on Friday, on concerns that it will eventually be forced to seek a Greek-style bailout. Montoro said Spanish banks should be recapitalised through European mechanisms, departing from the previous government line that Spain could raise the money on its own and prompting the Madrid stock market to rise. But his comments on Spain's borrowing sent the euro down after the 17-nation European currency earlier hit a one-week high against the dollar on hopes that a conference call of G7 finance ministers and central bankers might hasten action. The U.S. Treasury, which chaired that meeting, said in a statement that the G7 discussed "progress towards a financial and fiscal union in Europe" and agreed to monitor developments closely. But the group made no joint statement and took no immediate action. Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the G7 finance chiefs agreed to work together to deal with the problems facing Spain and Greece, but he gave no details. "I see market anxiety over world economy largely stemming from Europe's problems," Azumi told reporters in Tokyo. "Leaders of major European countries voiced strong comments, saying that they would tackle the problems responsibly, including Spain, so we trust Europe's response. We asked them to take steps one after another to relieve not only us but also markets of anxiety." European leaders, alarmed by the latest turn of events, have begun thinking seriously about the economic union needed to make the single currency project secure. But that end-game is months or years away. "What we have learnt since the weekend is that all the talk about a bigger solution, a bigger response from the politicians is gaining some steam," said Rainer Guntermann, strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "At the same time it doesn't look like they have a quick fix at hand, not a fundamental game changer at this point in time." "EUROPE CLEARLY A RISK" A senior U.S. Treasury official, Mark Sobel, told a seminar in
Washington that all G7 participants - "and in particular Europe" - had been encouraged to address their own problems. "Obviously Europe's problems are first and foremost for Europe to address but clearly we live in an interdependent world and the outlook for the world economy is impacted by Europe," he said. One senior European G7 source, speaking just before the teleconference, said it was set to turn into a "Germany-bashing session", with other partners applying severe pressure on Berlin to do more to stimulate growth and help the euro zone. The source, who requested anonymity due to the confidential nature of the call, confirmed that Germany was pushing Spain to accept an international rescue, as Greece, Ireland and Portugal have done, to help it recapitalise stricken banks. "They don't want to. They are too proud. It's fatal hubris," the source said of the Spanish government. Berlin and the European Central Bank have so far resisted pressure from Madrid to ride to its rescue without forcing Spain into the humiliation of an internationally supervised bailout. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Europe must find a solution to the Spanish banking crisis that did not add to Madrid's already heavy budget deficit. The ECB holds its monthly rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and European Union leaders meet on June 28-29 to discuss a strategy for overcoming the crisis, which began in late 2009 when Greece revealed it had covered up a huge budget deficit. CONTAGION Investors have fled peripheral euro zone sovereign debt amid worries about Spain's banking crisis and fears that a June 17 Greek election could lead to Athens leaving the euro, setting off a wave of contagion around the euro area.
Spain will test the market on Thursday by issuing between 1 bln euros and 2 bln euros in medium- and long-term bonds at auction. Emilio Botin, chairman of the nation's biggest bank, Banco Santander told Reuters Spanish banks needed about 40 bln euros in additional capital, adding that "there is no financial crisis in Spain". Montoro said the bank recapitalisation figures were "perfectly accessible" but analysts were perplexed about his comments on Spain's ability to raise debt. "Announcing that Spain no longer has market access 48 hours before a crucial bond auction hardly inspires confidence," said analyst Nicolas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy. Montoro's comments appeared aimed at pressuring the ECB and EU paymaster Germany to find ways of intervening. But the central bank has so far shunned calls to resume purchases of Spanish government bonds, and Berlin has rejected allowing direct aid from the euro zone's rescue fund to recapitalise Spanish banks without setting conditions for the government. The festering euro zone crisis has sparked mounting concern outside Europe. On Monday, Ottawa and Washington both called for action after a G7 source said fears that capital flight from Spain could escalate into a full-fledged bank run had triggered the emergency talks. Pressure is building in particular on Germany, the biggest contributor to euro zone rescue funds, to back away from its prescription of fiscal austerity for the region's weaker economies and to work harder on fostering growth. Berlin argues it is already doing its share by encouraging generous domestic wage settlements, accepting the prospect of higher-than-usual German inflation and most recently agreeing that Spain should have more time to achieve its fiscal targets. Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the door on Monday to the prospect of a euro zone banking union in the medium term, saying she would consider the idea of putting systemically important cross-border banks under European supervision. However, Berlin is so far resisting a joint deposit guarantee for euro zone banks and a bank resolution fund, both of which would create new liabilities for German taxpayers. A German government strategy paper seen by Reuters showed Berlin does not expect final decisions on strengthening economic policy coordination until March 2013, with only a roadmap being agreed at this month's summit. The ECB could contribute by cutting its main interest rate, lowering its deposit rate to try to shake loose some 700 bln euros parked overnight in its vaults by anxious banks, or by providing a third big liquidity injection to banks. But most analysts it will await the outcome of the Greek election and the EU summit before taking decisive action.
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FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
CYPRUS | 3
Deutsche Bank, AXA eye Eurolife and GIC B a n k o f C y p r u s t o g a i n €2 200 mln from foreign giants considering to invest in its insurance subsidiaries. Deutsche Bank has concluded a due diligence report on Eurolife and General Insurance of Cyprus (GIC), the life insurance and general insurance divisions of the Bank of Cyprus Group, that hopes to benefit from a 200 mln euro windfall from the sale of a 51% stake in both companies. The banking group needs to raise a further 200 mln euros by the end of the month as it fell short of a 600 mln euro target from its recent rights issue and recapitalisation plan. It also needs to raise a cushion twice that amount to support the oneoff contribution of some 430 mln euros into the staff provident fund, as agreed in earlier labour negotiations. Deutsche Bank, possibly acting on behalf of a potential investor, is expected to submit its offer by the end of this week, with French insurer AXA also interested, according to Greek media sources, while local and Middle Eastern investors, possibly from Lebanon, are also keen to join the bandwagon. Insurance industry experts suggest that any deal with a foreign investor such as AXA or any other European insurer would have multiple benefits for the BOC Group, as it would retain a 49% stake in the companies and still cash in on its share of the
nearly 60 mln euros in annual profits, without the burden of operational costs. Both divisions contributed some 16 mln euros in first quarter profits this year, down 5% from the same quarter last year. Profits from insurance in Cyprus dropped 3% in the first quarter to 14 mln euros, while in Greece the division lost 16%, dropping from 3 mln euros to 2 mln. Though the 2011 total contribution to profits amounted to 61 mln euros, it is the synergies between retail banking and insurance that generates greater revenues for the Group. “Our business is reaching saturation point and introducing new products would be good for us as a group as well as for the consumer,” one insurance salesperson told the Financial Mirror. However, the concern among the 300 or so staff at both insurance companies is if they will be laid off and what com-
pensation they will receive, as only a small number would be retained. The bank has already been training one or two bank staff at nearly each of it’s branches to deal with insurance sales, while laid off sales staff may be recruited as agents. The sell-off would also relieve the bank from the Solvency II headache that is an additional burden of liquidity requirements on the already strained financial situation, while the potential investor would only be seeking to maintain or increase its market share in Cyprus and Greece, without having the burden of setting up new operations. The Bank of Cyprus announced last month that it was exploring “prospective strategic cooperation in the insurance sector” similar to successful plans implemented by other international banking groups. French insurer CNP has taken a 51% stake in Laiki Insurances, while Hellenic Bank has a partnership deal with Alico. “These measures will help strengthen the Group’s capital, considering the regulatory requirements by the European Banking Authority and the Basel III (liquidity requirements),” the bank said in an announcement.
Hellenic Bank profits up tenfold to €8 mln Minimal impact from Greece Hellenic Bank, the third largest lender in Cyprus where the Church has a significant stake, reported 8 mln euros in net profits for the first quarter, nearly tenfold its profits in the same quarter last year of just under a million. The bank, widely considered a conservative institution with minimal exposure to Greek sovereign debt, said on Wednesday it reported an increase in recurring operational profits, boosted income and maintained cost levels to end the quarter with a pre-tax profit of 12.7 mln euros, more than double the first quarter 2011 figure of 5.7 mln euros. During the first quarter, the bank said it proceeded with an additional impairment of 7.3 mln euros based on the recalculation of the voluntary participation of private plan (PSI +) on March 12. The total impairment accounted for 77.3% of their nominal value, with the bank saying last year that its exposure to Greek government bonds was 110 mln euros, the bulk of which was written off in the 2011 results. Group income, excluding the impairment cost of GGBs, increased by 21%, while total expenses decreased by 8%, of
which some 4 mln euros in staff savings, generating a cost to income ratio, excluding the impairment cost, of 44% which is far lower and more manageable than the 57.9% ratio in the first quarter last year. Hellenic said advances amounted to 5.6 bln and remained at the same level as in December 2011 and a mere 1% up on the first quarter of 2011. Deposits were up 4% from the previous quarter at 7.4 bln and 7% higher than the first quarter last year resulting in a “satisfactory” net loans to deposits ratio of 67.3%. “The Group maintains comfortable liquidity, benefiting from its high stable deposit base,” the bank said in an announcement, adding that “the absence of financing by the European Central Bank and the non dependence on the interbank market is indicative of the comfortable liquidity of the Group.” The bank said that “in Greece, due to the continuing financial crisis and its negative impact on the real economy and consequently on the quality of the loan portfolio of the branch
Services turnover has mixed record in Q1 Business services up, retail down The services sector had a mixed record in the first quarter of the year according to data on turnover from the Statistical Service. On the positive side, turnover in the sector that represents international business services (professional, scientific and technical activities) rose by 4.2% over the year earlier in the first three months of the year. The business services sector accounts for some 10% of GDP. It now brings in more income from abroad than tourism and employs more people than tourism once financial services are included. Information and communications also rose, rising by 5.4%, while there was a 4.7% increase in administrative and support service activities. On the negative side, services relating to the consumer or tourism fared badly. Accommodation and food service activities fell by 0.6%. As regards transport, turnover in this sector dropped by 15.1%, compared with the corresponding period of 2011. Land transport fell by 10.7%, water tumbled by 55.6% and air transport dropped by 24.1%. Postal and courier activities fell by 4.8%.
network,” the loss before taxation was 7.4 mln euros compared to a loss of 15.4 mln in the first quarter. The reduction of the loss is mainly due to reduction in provisions for impairment of loans and advances. The Group net non performing loans increased by 12% from 720 mln euros in the previous quarter to 804 mln euros in the first quarter of 2012, a figure that is 44% higher from 559 mln euros in the first quarter of last year. Meanwhile, the bank also announced that it is proceeding with a rights issue in order to raise 66 mln euros, offering shareholders one right for every existing share which can be exercised at a rate of two rights per share at a price of 43c each from June 15 to July 6. Shareholders will also receive three bonus shares for every two new shares arising from the exercise. The current stock price is trading at 19c a share. The bank said that after it raises fresh funds, its capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 ratio and the core tier 1 ratio will be 13.9%, 11.2% and 8.3%, respectively, “and as a result the Group exceeds all capital adequacy ratio minimum requirements.”
Population revised up to 862,000 The Statistical Service has made a large upward revision to the population figure following the census conducted in October 2011. The estimated population is now 862,000, compared with a previous official estimate in the national accounts data of 806,800. The population in 2011 was thus 6.8% higher than previously estimated. The figure for 2010 was revised up to 839,800 from 804,200 estimated previously. According to the new data the population has risen at an annual average rate of 2.6% in the past 5 years and 2.0% in the past 10 years. This is a fairly fast growth rate by EU standards and could explain Cyprus’ resistance (until very recently) to recession, as more people create more demand for food, housing and so on. One unfortunate by-product of a larger population is that it implies Cypriots are less well off than they thought. GDP per capita before the newly released estimates was EUR 22,014. With the new figures this drops to EUR 20,605. Fiona Mullen, www.sapientaeconomics.com POPULATION OFFICIAL ESTIMATES in thousands Population before revision Population after revision Source: Statistical Service.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
757.8 744.0
772.6 757.9
784.0 776.4
793.1 796.9
800.1 819.1
804.2 839.8
806.8 862.0
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
4 | CYPRUS
Gov’t does not rule out EU bailout "Western capitalism" and banks to blame for everything… possibly even Mari? President Demetris Christofias has backed down from his over-optimistic view of the economy just eight months away from the next elections and said he would not exclude a bailout to recapitalise the Popular Bank hobbled by exposure to Greek debt, but said it would be "chaotic" if the neighbouring country left the euro zone. The president told reporters during a regular briefing that the prospect of the island entering a financial support mechanism wasn't a foregone conclusion, but one that could not be totally ruled out. He continued with his rhetoric blaming everything on the Cyprus banks' exposure to Greek sovereign debt and the "incompetence" of the former central bank governor to regulate the banks better. He also said "it would not be the end of the world" if Cyprus missed its stated target of a 2.5% deficit this year, and eventually hit 3.0%. However, Christofias reiterated his argument that the "western capitalist" system had failed and did not discuss further austerity in the civil service, without saying how his administration would fund any future growth. The Popular Bank faces the prospect of nationalisation if it does not find new investors by an end-June deadline through its 1.8 bln euro rights issue to meet a core tier 1 capital - an indicator of financial strength - of 9%. The figure is equivalent to about 10% of Cyprus GDP, and an amount the island can ill afford as it runs deficits and is shut out of international financial markets. Economists and some officials have been warning for months that it might be the latest euro zone member to need support due to problems with banking and the costs of an explosion that knocked out main power plant at Vassiliko last year.
That bill will likely rise if Greece leaves the euro zone given the massive exposure of Cypriot banks to Greece. The exposure is in the region of 23 bln euros, compared to the size of the Cypriot economy of around 17.3 bln euros. Christofias said technocrats were asked to look at contingency planning to "deal with a chaotic situation" if Greece does leave the euro zone. "It is something I hope will never happen," he said. PLAN B Government officials say external bilateral lending - Cyprus
acquired a 2.5 bln euro loan from Russia last year - is among the options. Christofias declined to disclose who the island was talking to on a bilateral loan, and implied that any help from EU partners, a separate option, would focus on the banking sector itself. "There are support mechanisms and support mechanisms. There is a support mechanism for banks, which does not imply what happened to Greece," he said, referring to stringent austerity measures imposed on the country. "We are fighting so we do not need a support mechanism for banks," he said. The island is trying to curb its deficit from 5.3% of GDP in 2011 to below 3.0%; the finance ministry has set a target of 2.5% this year. "We did say 2.5%, but if 3.0% is reached they (the European Commission) will probably say 'bravo'," Christofias said. Cyprus's economic problems were exclusively due to exposure to Greek debt, he said, and regulatory oversights of the Central Bank, under the then stewardship of former governor Athanasios Orphanides. Orphanides, who has rejected any blame, has said that problems could have been averted had Cyprus negotiated better terms for the Greek debt writedown agreed by European leaders in October 2011. He told parliament on April 30 that he was rarely consulted by Christofias. Christofias, who apppointed a replacement in May, was scathing in his criticism of Orphanides. "No governor of a central bank can impose his will on the executive, elected by the people," he said in his usual tone of any criticism. "My experience (with Orphanides) was traumatic," he said.
Top London lawyer jailed on fraud charges By Petros Mavros A London court last week heard how top lawyer Christopher Grierson, 60, destroyed his personal and professional life after being found guilty of misappropriating 1.2 mln pounds, money cleverly siphoned off over a period of four years from his law firm Hogen Lovells. The court heard how this once brilliant litigator became a ‘whirling dervish’ as his behaviour spiralled out of control with wild spending and credit card bills which saw his monthly outgoings reach 40.000 pounds. He spent the money on the services of call girls, then became infatuated with a Lebanese woman based in New York who went on to receive cash gifts from Grierson amounting to 280,000 pounds, plus an additional 630.000 which went to pay rent for her NYC apartment. As a trusted partner at the law firm, Grierson was able over a four year period to systematically fake 57 documents charged to a dormant client account. In a desperate effort to remain solvent, and to hide his lavish spending from his wife and three children, Grierson began forging massive claims for travel expenses, one instance was a claim for 42.000 pounds submitted by him for travel from Heathrow to Los Angeles.. Defending, Grierson’s lawyer Mark Ellison told the court that his client’s life started to spiral out of control in 2005 after the collapse of the BCCI fraud inquiry on which Grierson had worked for several years. He went on to describe how since 2001 Grierson had suffered from depression and serious mental health issues after developing a severe bipolar condition, “this resulted in a consistent theme of failure, and despite his professional success, led him into committing social, sexual, and financial indiscretions which were bound to be exposed.” Ellison described how during this period his client had occasionally used the services of call girls as a “means of escape and a source of affection”. In January 2006 Grierson became totally infatuated with a Lebanese woman who his lawyer described as “someone who gave the impression of admiring Grierson and was capable of lifting his spirits”. The lawyer further explained that this relation
then led his client into a totally different spending league, “his behaviour was truly bizarre, an indicator of the extent to which he had become derailed. He must have lost all reason because he knew deep down that everything about the relationship was false, he had become a victim of manipulation, and indeed might have been a willing victim”. Grierson’s spending continued to spiral with him doubling his 900.000 pound mortgage to 1.8 mln, he exhausted his overdraft, maximised all his credit cards, and when his monthly outgoings hit 40.000 pounds he was fearful of telling his wife what was going but, in August 2007 she discovered her husband’s transatlantic infidelity and was later granted a divorce. With his home life in ruins and his professional life about to come to an ignominious end, his lawyer described a man clearly heading for disaster saying: “In ruining his life, he was metaphorically sharing the driving seat with a bipolar mental disorder”. During this time he continued as an active partner
within Hogen Lovells where both his declining mental condition and fraudulent activities had as yet gone undetected. Grierson was able to count the Sultan of Brunei’s brother Jefri as a client, while in 2011 he also took on one of the biggest divorce cases in UK history when he represented hedge fund mathematician Dr Martin Coward in his separation from the tycoon Eleni Ambrosiadou, founder of the IKOS hedge fund for which Dr Coward worked. The court heard Grierson was currently under psychiatric care and taking medication for his bipolar condition, he had also been labelled as a “significant” suicide risk. Judge John Price sentenced Grierson to a total of three years in prison for what he described as a “well planned and sophisticated fraud”, with Grierson having “created false documents in order to steal a total of 1.274,414 pounds from his solicitors firm which was then spent on buying sexual favours and affection”. The Judge went on to say that a positive side to the case was Grierson’s reputation as a first class solicitor, also the fact that he had repaid with interest the money stolen. The mitigating circumstances of Grierson’s mental health was also a factor in the judge’s decision to halve his sentence with the second half being suspended.
Cut deficit, reform pensions and health Cyprus should take additional measures to reduce government spending and reform the health and pensions sectors in order to meet a national stability programme and for the economy to return to a path of growth, the European Commission said in its annual economic recommendations to all 27 member states. The European Union’s ruling body said that the objective was to achieve a balanced budget by correcting the excessive deficit by 2012 and reaching the medium-term budgetary
objective (MTO) by 2014, and to stay at MTO in 2015. In its conclusions, the Commission said that Cyprus should “take additional measures to achieve a durable correction of the excessive deficit in 2012, improve tax compliance and fight against tax evasion. It said Cyprus needs to improve competitiveness through the reform of the system of wage indexation to better reflect productivity developments, take steps to diversify the structure of the economy and redress the fiscal balance by restraining expenditure.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
CYPRUS | 5
Prometheus: Cyprus should join EFSF right now If Prometheus was still around he would have advised us to urgently, but voluntarily, join the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Dr THEODORE PANAYOTOU
Cyprus International Institute of Management (CIIM)
We, Cypriots, may be good at many things but one thing we are not particularly good at is in anticipating events, scenario building and assessing and managing risk. Even when we see the writing on the wall we prefer to bury our heads in the sand and pretend it is not there. We knew all along that our banks were getting far too big either to save them or let them fail, were they to get into trouble; we nevertheless allowed them to become 7-8 times our Gross Domestic Product. We knew all along that our banks were heavily invested in Greece beyond prudence but we cheered them along. Not even when the economic situation in Greece was deteriorating by the day did we stop to question the wisdom of our sacred banks continuing to buy virtually worthless Greek bonds and giving loans to borrowers about to default. Their successive downgrading by the rating agencies raised more questions about the agencies than our banks. The deep haircut of the Greek debt that rendered our banks heavily undercapitalised found us in the middle of bragging about our banks having passed their stress tests with flying colours. Even when our banks couldn’t raise the funds to recapitalise themselves we deluded ourselves that Russia, China, private mega-investors and other dei ex machina were lining up to give us billions without even asking how we got into this mess in the first place. Our feathers were not ruffled even by the results of the Greek elections and the prospect of Greece exiting the euro, defaulting on its debts, and rendering our bank’s private loans of 22 bln euros unserviceable, requiring another 5-7 bln for a second recapitalisation. It was in the midst of such denial that Laiki Bank “cried uncle” and begged for help from the state which is itself broke. The state rightly, given the circumstances, lent a helping hand but nobody harbours any illusion that the bill will end up in the hands of the taxpayers many of whom are its customers. But even if the bank, with the state guarantee, manages to raise the funds to recapitalise itself and even if no other bank needs state help, more risks are looming on the horizon, from further haircuts of Greek public debt to the billions of non-performing private debt, from continuing Greek
instability to Greece exiting the Euro. Shouldn’t we be Prometheus and not Epimetheus for a change? Shouldn’t we anticipate these risks and prepare for them? Shouldn’t we build scenarios about the future and prepare strategic responses for all eventualities? Shouldn’t we anticipate events and pre-empt them or at least take early action to mitigate their effects? Why should we always be behind the curve running after the event to catch up with kneejerk responses? It is quite clear that it is possible and even likely that our banking system would need more support in the very near future, support we cannot provide as taxpayers nor as depositors and investors. What are our options? As members of the Eurozone we should seek help from our partners and the mechanisms of the club to which we belong and we should do this as an act of prudence not as an act of desperation. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) was created two years ago, in May 2010, for exactly situations like this, “to provide loans to countries in financial difficulties and to finance recapitalizations of financial institutions through loans to governments to provide support to financial institutions via their respective states to ensure financial stability”. We may not need the funds right away but since we are likely to need it very soon we should voluntarily apply to ESFS for funds to the order of 5-7 bln euros in the form of a standing facility which we will use only if and to the extent needed. It is in the very mission of the EFSF to “act on the basis of a precautionary programme”. Why haven’t we done it already? First of all, it is not in our DNA and our culture to act proactively. Secondly, we have demonised the EU support mechanisms in light of Greece’s painful experience without bothering to distinguish between the emergency support of a bankrupt state through the “Mnemonium” under the management of the Troika and the precautionary resort of a solvent state to an entirely different mechanism, the EFSF, whose mission is to prop up troubled financial institutions and secure financial stability. True, the request for support must be done by the state, not directly by the banks (although the creation of such a facility is under discussion); therefore, if we end up using the funds, our national debt will increase but it not beyond the EU average. A third and perhaps the most inhibiting reason is our fear that our EU partners are waiting for us to ask for help in order to impose on us what they always wanted: a steep increase of our corporate tax rate. Since our low corporate tax rate has been our only remaining competitive advantage in recent years we are scared that our resort to EFSF will mark the drying up of foreign investment, the departure of foreign companies from Cyprus and the demise of our ailing economy. This fear is both misplaced and exaggerated. First, when you enter a support mechanism voluntarily as a precaution you
have more room to negotiate the terms and to draw red lines; our low corporate tax could and should be one. Second, it is contrary to the mission of the EFSF to destabilise a member state’s economy by imposing burdensome terms in its effort to stabilise its financial system. Third, by joining the EFSF voluntarily and preemptively we reduce the threat to our low corporate tax, especially if we go well before the state itself needs financial support, with a well thought out plan of how to keep our commitment to reducing our budget deficit to 2.5% of GNP. What we need more than anything else now is to regain people’s trust in our banking system, and our EU partners’ trust in our state and its macroeconomic management. However, all scenarios should be studied and alternative responses lined up. What if the EFSF’s terms turn out to be too burdensome to accept. What are our options? One possibility is to mortgage part of the future revenues from the exploitation of our newly found gas deposits for loans from countries like China and Russia. This would be far more preferable than losing the competitive advantage of the low corporate tax. Moreover, having options strengthens our negotiating position with the EFSF. At last, we should recognise that we live in an uncertain world full of risks and we should begin anticipating events, building scenarios and strategic responses, assessing and managing risks. Dr. Theodore Panayotou, is Director of CIIM and Professor of Economics and the Environment at Harvard University, served as consultant to the UN and to governments in the U.S., China, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Cyprus. He has published and was recognized for his contribution to the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.
Cyprus will not abandon MFF targets The Cyprus EU Presidency will act as an honest broker during the negotiation of the Multiannual Financial Framework for the period 2014-2020 and it will not abandon its national targets, a senior official said. Deputy Minister for European Affairs Andreas Mavroyiannis said Cyprus does not expect to get more funding in any area, but aims at retaining the amount of funding it has secured for agriculture during the previous MFF period. According to a European Commission proposal submitted on June 2011, MFF spending is estimated at 1025 bln euros or 1.05% of the EU’s Gross National Income (GNI). It is the biggest issue the Cypriot EU Presidency is called to handle, Mavroyiannis noted, adding that the EU as whole
aspires to finalise negotiations by the end of this year. He also said that according to the proposal, Cyprus is among the member states that risk losing the most from funding and added that “we are trying to find ways to ensure that we are not going to be the victims” and that “funding levels will be retained”. Citing the proposal on the EU cohesion policy, Mavroyiannis said Cyprus is expected to get 130 mln euros, down from 640 mln during the previous seven-year period. There is a safety net, he said, noting a provision in the MFF negotiating box, prepared by the Danish Presidency, that no country can obtain less than 55% of funding, compared to the previous MFF, but added that “there is still a big difference that needs to be covered”.
Mavroyiannis explained that MFF spending is divided in five areas, including the “smart and inclusive growth”, where the Commission proposes the allocation of 48% of the funds. Other areas are “sustainable growth: natural resources” with 37% of the budget, “security and citizenship” with 1.8%, “global Europe” with 6.8%, while administration funds are expected to stand at 6.1%. He said that the informal meting of European Affairs Ministers in Nicosia, on August 30, will exclusively discuss the topic, while President Herman Van Rompuy is expected to engage in discussions from the second half of September onwards, paving the way for the European Council in October.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
6 | OPINION EDITORIAL
Doesn’t he ever give up? Just when we thought that the banking crisis issue had calmed down and that we were all turning a new leaf, looking forward to the next steps that need to be taken to save the economy, President Christofias decided to rekindle the attack on the banking sector, western capitalism and, of course, his pet hate, the former Central Bank governor. His comments were on the wrong track and not well planned, probably on the behest of some of his illinformed advisors. Attacking the western capitalist system will not earn him any points with Francois Hollande, and surely not with Angela Merkel, the EU’s paymaster. On the contrary,
Cyprus will once again be mocked for not being serious at a time when we are desperately trying to preserve our image as an international financial service centre. The only person that was probably delighted by these comments was the swashbuckling Alexis Tsipras of the leftist rejectionist party in Greece. Then again, at a time when we need to reinstate confidence in the Cyprus banking sector, with the hope that shareholders (include stockholders from among the Akel ranks) will some day see their share values and hopefully dividends rise again, restarting the blame-game and saying that the banks were at fault for everything was simply counterproductive.
We all agree that a proper investigation needs to take place to see who is to blame for the decision to buy the rotten Greek government bonds at a time when all else were selling down their portfolios. At the same time, we should also look at the lack of substantial austerity measures that do not seem to have dented the colossal public sector payroll in any way and have caused our public sector deficit to remain high, part of the reason why, together with the absence of reforms, we have been downgraded and subsequently shut out of markets. Perhaps the President, too, should take some of his own medicine and say less on the matter, just as has been the case recently over oil and gas exploration.
Developing a prevention culture for better results Prevention Doctors advise us to have a healthy diet, exercise, take our medical tests regularly and so forth. What they are in fact telling us is that prevention is the best cure. Prevention, of course, is not desirable only in health matters. It is important in other fields of our personal and professional life. To use a more “business-like” terminology, prevention is similar to risk management, which is of concern for any enterprise, whether public or private. It also has to do with the governmental apparatus, public law organizations, as well as local government. What is “risk management” then? Risk Management Risk management is a process of identifying, evaluating, addressing and monitoring risks, that is to say the occurrence of events that are likely to threaten a corporation’s achievement of its objectives. Risk may originate in the external environment in which a company carries on its activities or they may arise from the activities within the company itself. The risk can also be of a strategic, financial, operational, legal or other nature. The way of handling risks is proportional to their gravity. The degree of risk gravity may, simply speaking, be measured
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By ONISIFOROS A. ONISIFOROU President of the Cyprus Institute of Internal Auditors
on the occurrence probability of various events and the effects they will have if such events actually come about. There are various ways of handling risk. For instance, risk can be transferred to third parties outside the company (e.g. through insurance coverage) or may be avoided altogether (e.g. by refraining to take any action, the negative effects of which might be huge). Moreover, risk may be accepted without taking any further action, provided the possible effects are within the specified acceptable limits. Also, the magnitude of negative effects or the occurrence probability of events can be reduced by adopting suitable measures and strengthening the management and control system. The risk management procedure does not aim to obliterate the risks; for this may cost too much or it may not be either possible or desirable. Without taking risks it is not possible to attain the results pursued through the business activities. However, the taking of risks must be done in a responsible way through the operation of an effective risk management process. Responsibility for an effective risk management process Who has ultimate responsibility for the establishment and effective functioning of such a risk management process? The initial responsibility lies with the current authority, administration, the governing body of a corporation, which must define a risk management policy, prescribe what is and what is not an acceptable level of risk and plan and establish – with the help of experts – a risk management process. Such process must be
adequate and capable of functioning effectively by identifying and addressing all important risks; furthermore the vision, the mission, the values, the objectives, the strategy and the management and control system of an organisation should be aligned to this process. In this way the persons in charge, who make decisions and are the “owners” of any risk, shall have the necessary information and awareness of the risks involved. It follows that they will be in a position to plan the corresponding actions and take proper preventive measures in time. The role of the Internal Auditor Risk management is an issue of direct concern to the professional Internal Auditor. The nature of the Internal Auditor’s work has three basic aspects. One has to do with the corporate governance, the other with the management and control system and the third with the risk management process. The Internal Auditor may advise the administration and the management on the setting up of an adequate risk management process, the adoption and effective functioning of which would be beneficial to the corporation. In corporations where such process is already in place, the Internal Auditor assesses the adequacy and effectiveness of its operation and at the same time makes suggestions for improvement to the administration and management of the corporation. In conclusion The risk management process is an important tool in the hands of those who run a company, private or public corporation, even the state mechanism. Especially in a period of economic crisis when new, changing and interconnected risks are lying in wait, we must escape from the mentality of oversimplifying the risks and their handling by relying mainly on our intuition. It is absolutely necessary to develop a decision making and action promoting culture – not one of procrastination instead – based on the functioning of an effective risk management process that will help us to become less vulnerable and multiply the chances of achieving our objectives.
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KEFEA sounds alarm on pharma The Cyprus Association of Research and Development Pharmaceutical Companies (KEFEA) has been following with great concern the sudden change in policy on behalf of the Ministry of Health, in relation to the application of contracts for the purchase of medications. KEFEA is in favour of adhering to the contracts signed between the pharmaceutical companies and the state, but also believes that the lack of flexibility and the strict adherence to bureaucratic procedures will create serious problems for the uninterrupted supply of medicines to Cypriot patients. The procedures followed previously ensured a steady supply of drugs, and were in no way detrimental to the quality and safety of the pharmaceutical products, nor did they affect prices. Instead, as KEFEA notes, the sudden and inflexible policy change currently being implemented by
the Ministry might force companies to opt out of participating in competitions launched by the state and this can lead to shortages in medications which will have harmful effects on patients. KEFEA considers it its responsibility to appeal to the relevant authorities to heed the calls of the aforementioned companies and above all, KEFEA calls upon the Ministry of Health to engage in a dialogue aimed at solving the problems that have arisen and thus avoiding unpleasant developments in the field of pharmaceuticals. Finally, KEFEA has questioned the purpose of such a sudden policy change, which aims at repeating the worrying events of 2005, when dozens of pharmaceutical products were withdrawn from the Cyprus market, and certainly not at the benefit of patients.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
COMMENT | 7
Smart Taxes Governments throughout the European Union and around the world confront a seeming Catch-22: the millstone of national debt around their necks has required them to reduce deficits through spending cuts and tax increases. But these are impeding the consumer spending needed to boost economic activity and kick-start growth. As the debate shifts from austerity towards measures aimed at stimulating growth, smarter taxation will be essential to getting the balance right. By HANS EICHEL and YANNIS PALAIOKRASSAS Hans Eichel is a former German finance minister. Yannis Palaiokrassas, a former Greek finance minister, was European Commissioner for the Environment and Fisheries.
When governments think about the difficult task of raising taxes, they usually think about income tax, business taxes, and valueadded tax (VAT). But there are other taxes that can raise significant amounts of revenue with a much less negative impact on the economy. These are the taxes that governments already levy on electricity and fossil fuels. Such taxes play a crucial role in cutting the carbon emissions that cause climate change. But recent research shows that they can also play a useful role in raising government revenue at little cost in terms of economic growth. Euro for euro, dollar for dollar, yen for yen: energy and carbon taxes have a lower negative impact on a nation’s economy, consumption, and jobs than income tax and VAT. For example, an increase in direct taxes, such as income tax, can reduce consumption by twice as much as energy and carbon taxes that raise the same amount of revenue. Maintaining consumption at as high a level as possible is vital to reviving economic activity, which means that freeing money for consumers to spend is just as important. Energy and carbon taxes can raise revenue while leaving the economy in a stronger state to sustain a recovery. Conventional taxes raise revenue, but pose a much greater risk of depressing growth in the process. This is not the only reason why looking more closely at energy and carbon taxes makes sense. The current framework for energy taxation, particularly in Europe, is not sustainable. Tax rates on different fuels vary by more than 50% across the EU, causing major distortions in the single market. Creating a level playing field on energy taxation in the EU would harmonize economic incentives, eliminate gas-tank tourism by drivers crossing borders for lower prices, and
improve the business climate in all of Europe’s economies. Rising energy bills, driven by the cost of fossil fuels, are a massive political issue in many countries in Europe and elsewhere, including the United States, where consumer energy prices have become a major issue in the run-up to this year’s presidential election. But, relative to other forms of taxation, energy taxation tends to benefit consumers overall. The gains from avoiding the negative impact of conventional taxes work across the economy, particularly as the least well-off maintain a higher level of disposable household income. Most energy and carbon taxes are levied by national governments. But in Europe there is another option for raising revenues: the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). In terms of the effect on GDP and jobs, the cost of increasing revenue from this source would be as much as one-third less than that of raising the same amount via income taxes or VAT. Given Europe’s fiscal deficits and the economic impact of reducing them, that is a huge potential prize. But, first, the issues depressing the carbon price must be addressed. Taking the massive over-allocation of carbon-emission permits out of the ETS will be vital. Finance ministers everywhere need to think more imaginatively about their fiscal options. Energy and carbon taxes can produce less economic pain and more gain than conventional taxes can. Europe needs fiscal consolidation, reductions in carbon emissions, and a strategy for economic growth. Greater reliance should be placed on energy taxes and an effective ETS to deliver all three. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
8 | CΟΜΜΕΝΤ
Austerity and Debt Realism Many, if not all, of the world’s most pressing macroeconomic problems relate to the massive overhang of all forms of debt. In Europe, a toxic combination of public, bank, and external debt in the periphery threatens to unhinge the eurozone. Across the Atlantic, a standoff between the Democrats, the Tea Party, and old-school Republicans has produced extraordinary uncertainty about how the United States will close its 8%-ofGDP government deficit over the long term. Japan, meanwhile is running a 10%-of-GDP budget deficit, even as growing cohorts of new retirees turn from buying Japanese bonds to selling them. Aside from wringing their hands, what should governments be doing? One extreme is the simplistic Keynesian remedy that assumes that government deficits don’t matter when the economy is in deep recession; indeed, the bigger the better. At the opposite extreme are the debt-ceiling absolutists who want governments to start balancing their budgets tomorrow (if not yesterday). Both are dangerously facile. The debt-ceiling absolutists grossly underestimate the massive adjustment costs of a self-imposed “sudden stop” in debt finance. Such costs are precisely why impecunious countries such as Greece face massive social and economic displacement when financial markets lose confidence and capital flows suddenly dry up. Of course, there is an appealing logic to saying that governments should have to balance their budgets just like the rest of us; unfortunately, it is not so simple. Governments typically have myriad ongoing expenditure commitments related to basic services such as national defense, infrastructure projects, education, and health care, not to mention to retirees. No government can just walk away from these responsibilities overnight. When US President Ronald Reagan took office on January 20, 1981, he retroactively rescinded all civil-service job offers extended by the government during the two and a half months between his election and the inauguration. The signal that he
By KENNETH ROGOFF Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF. intended to slow down government spending was a powerful one, but the immediate effect on the budget was negligible. Of course, a government can also close a budget gap by raising taxes, but any sudden shift can significantly magnify the distortions that taxes cause. If the debt-ceiling absolutists are naïve, so, too, are simplistic Keynesians. They see lingering post-financial-crisis unemployment as a compelling justification for much more aggressive fiscal expansion, even in countries already running massive deficits, such as the US and the United Kingdom. People who disagree with them are said to favor “austerity” at a time when hyper-low interest rates mean that governments can borrow for almost nothing. But who is being naïve? It is quite right to argue that governments should aim only to balance their budgets over the business cycle, running surpluses during booms and deficits when economic activity is weak. But it is wrong to think that massive accumulation of debt is a free lunch. In a series of academic papers with Carmen Reinhart – including, most recently, joint work with Vincent Reinhart (“Debt Overhangs: Past and Present”) – we find that very high debt levels of 90% of GDP are a long-term secular drag on economic growth that often lasts for two decades or more. The cumulative costs can be stunning. The average high-debt
episodes since 1800 last 23 years and are associated with a growth rate more than one percentage point below the rate typical for periods of lower debt levels. That is, after a quarter-century of high debt, income can be 25% lower than it would have been at normal growth rates. Of course, there is two-way feedback between debt and growth, but normal recessions last only a year and cannot explain a two-decade period of malaise. The drag on growth is more likely to come from the eventual need for the government to raise taxes, as well as from lower investment spending. So, yes, government spending provides a short-term boost, but there is a trade-off with long-run secular decline. It is sobering to note that almost half of high-debt episodes since 1800 are associated with low or normal real (inflationadjusted) interest rates. Japan’s slow growth and low interest rates over the past two decades are emblematic. Moreover, carrying a huge debt burden runs the risk that global interest rates will rise in the future, even absent a Greek-style meltdown. This is particularly the case today, when, after sustained massive “quantitative easing” by major central banks, many governments have exceptionally short maturity structures for their debt. Thus, they run the risk that a spike in interest rates would feed back relatively quickly into higher borrowing costs. With many of today’s advanced economies near or approaching the 90%-of-GDP level that loosely marks high-debt periods, expanding today’s already large deficits is a risky proposition, not the cost-free strategy that simplistic Keynesians advocate. I will focus in the coming months on the related problems of high private debt and external debts, and I will also return to the theme of why this is a time when elevated inflation is not so naïve. Above all, voters and politicians must beware of seductively simple approaches to today’s debt problems. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org
The Broken Legs of Global Trade The Doha Round, the latest phase of multilateral trade negotiations, failed in November 2011, after ten years of talks, despite official efforts by many countries, including the United Kingdom and Germany, and by nearly all eminent trade scholars today. While trade officials in the United States and the European Union blamed the G-22 developing countries’ excessive demands for the failure of earlier negotiations in Cancún in 2003, there is general agreement that this time it was the US whose unwarranted (and unyielding) demands killed the talks. So, now what? The failure to achieve multilateral trade liberalization by concluding the Doha Round means that the world lost the gains from trade that a successful treaty would have brought. But that is hardly the end of the matter: the failure of Doha will virtually halt multilateral trade liberalization for years to come. Of course, multilateral trade negotiations are only one of three legs on which the World Trade Organization stands. But breaking that leg adversely affects the functioning of the other two: the WTO’s rule-making authority and its dispute-settlement mechanism. The costs here may also be large. Until now, preferential trade agreements (PTAs) among small groups of countries co-existed with multilateral, nondiscriminatory trade-liberalization rounds. As a result, the rules that govern trade, such as anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties to offset illegal subsidies, were in the domain of both the WTO and the PTAs. But, when there was a conflict, WTO rules prevailed, because they conferred enforceable rights that extended to all WTO members, whereas PTA-defined rights extended only to the PTA’s few members. So, while powerful, “hegemonic” countries like the US managed to impose their own rules on weaker partners in the PTAs that they helped to proliferate, big emerging economies
By JAGDISH BHAGWATI Jagdish Bhagwati, Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University and Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, was the Co-Chair of the High-Level Trade Experts Group appointed by the British, German, Indonesian, and Turkish governments. like India, Brazil, China, and South Africa insisted on rejecting such demands when made as part of multilateral trade rounds like Doha. Now, however, with the era of multilateral trade rounds and system-wide rules behind us, the PTAs are the only game in town, and the templates established by the hegemonic powers in unequal trade treaties with economically weaker countries will increasingly carry the day. In fact, such templates now extend beyond conventional trade issues (for example, agricultural protection) to vast numbers of areas unrelated to trade, including labor standards, environmental rules, policies on expropriation, and the ability to impose capital-account controls in financial crises. The US-led public-relations blitzkrieg of euphemism has already begun, with US Assistant Trade Representative Wendy Cutler describing the latest PTA, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, as a “high standard” agreement. Other American officials have taken to calling PTA’s “trade agreements for the twenty-first century.” Who could possibly be against the twenty-first century? What is disturbing is the way in which some trade econ-
omists in Geneva and in Washington have capitulated to such propaganda, and regard capitulation by the WTO as a way to “salvage” and reshape the organization. The WTO, like a village during the Vietnam War, must be destroyed in order to be saved. Unfortunately, this insidious attack on the second leg of the WTO also extends to the third leg, the dispute-settlement mechanism. The DSM is the pride of the WTO: it is the only impartial and binding mechanism for adjudicating and enforcing contractual obligations defined by the WTO and accepted by its members. It gives every member, big or small, a platform and a voice. Once PTA-based DSMs are established, however, adjudication of disputes will reflect asymmetries of power, benefiting the stronger trade partner. Moreover, third countries will have little scope for input into PTA-based DSMs, though their interests may very well be affected by how adjudication is structured. Given that the US has abandoned any pretense of leadership on world trade, it is up to major emerging economies and likeminded developed countries to establish their own template, one that adheres to trade objectives and discards what specialinterest lobbies in hegemons like the US seek to foist on PTAs. This is exactly what India has done with the EU, which is now stripping such features out of its proposed PTA. Other countries – Brazil, South Africa, and China among the major emerging economies, and Japan and Australia among the developed countries – should back such “garbagefree” PTAs as well. That just might be an adequate rebuff to the rise of PTAs whose main objective is to serve hegemonic interests alone – perhaps even sufficient to get the multilateral approach back on track. © Project Syndicate, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
COMMENT | 9
Is Global Financial Reform Possible? Nowadays there is ample evidence that financial systems, whether in Asia in the 1990’s or a decade later in the United States and Europe, are vulnerable to breakdowns. The cost in interrupted growth and unemployment ha s been intolerably large. Nowadays there is ample evidence that financial systems, whether in Asia in the 1990’s or a decade later in the United States and Europe, are vulnerable to breakdowns. The cost in interrupted growth and unemployment has been intolerably large. But, in the absence of international consensus on some key points, reform will be greatly weakened, if not aborted. The freedom of money, financial markets, and people to move – and thus to escape regulation and taxation – might be an acceptable, even constructive, brake on excessive official intervention, but not if a deregulatory race to the bottom prevents adoption of needed ethical and prudential standards. Perhaps most important is a coherent, consistent approach to dealing with the imminent failure of “systemically important” institutions. Taxpayers and governments alike are tired of bailing out creditors for fear of the destructive contagious effects of failure – even as bailouts encourage excessive risk taking. By law in the US, new approaches superseding established bankruptcy procedures dictate the demise rather than the rescue of failing firms, whether by sale, merger, or liquidation. But such efforts’ success will depend on complementary approaches elsewhere, most importantly in the United Kingdom and other key financial centers. Strict uniformity of regulatory practices may not be necessary. For example, the UK and the US may be adopting approaches that differ with respect to protecting commercial banks from more speculative, proprietary trading, but the policy concerns are broadly similar – and may not be so pressing elsewhere, where banking traditions are different and trading is more restrained. But other jurisdictions should not act to undercut the restrictions imposed by home authorities. Closely related to these reforms is reform of the international monetary system. Indeed, one might legitimately question whether we have a “system” at all, at least compared to the Bretton Woods arrangements and, before that, the seeming simplicity of the gold standard. No one today has been able to exert authority systematically and consistently, and there is no officially sanctified and controlled international currency. Arguably, the ideal of a well-defined and effective international monetary regime has become more difficult to
By PAUL VOLCKER Paul Volcker is a former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board.
realize as markets and capital flows have become vastly larger and more capricious. Indeed, the global economy, it is said, has grown – and emerging countries have flourished – without a more organized system. But what is too often overlooked is that international monetary disorder lay at the root of the successive financial crises of the 1990’s, and played an even more striking role in the crisis that erupted in 2008. The sustained and, in a sense, complementary imbalances in the US and Asia stand out. From 2000 to 2007, the US ran a cumulative currentaccount deficit of roughly $5.5 trillion, with nearly symmetrical offsetting increases in reserves in China and Japan. China found it useful to run a large trade surplus, using a very high rate of internal savings and inward foreign investment to support its industrialization and rapid growth. By contrast, the US, in the face of slow growth, was content to sustain exceptionally high levels of consumption at the expense of personal savings, inflating a massive housing bubble that burst with a very large and deeply disturbing bang. The practical and inescapable lesson is that when any country is left to its own policy devices, its preferences may lead to prolonged and ultimately unsustainable imbalances. Sooner or later, adjustment will be necessary – if not by considered domestic policy or a well-functioning international monetary system, then by financial crisis. Not so long ago, we were comforted by theorizing that floating exchange rates would mediate international adjustments in a timely and orderly way. But, in the real world, many countries, particularly but not limited to small, open economies, simply find it impractical or undesirable to permit their currency to float. We are left with the certainty, however awkward, that
active participation in an open world economy requires some surrender of economic sovereignty. Or, to put the point more positively, it requires a willingness to coordinate policies more effectively. The possibilities include: • Stronger surveillance by the International Monetary Fund and a firmer commitment by countries to abide by “best practices” and agreed norms. • Direct and public recommendations by the IMF, the G-20, or others, following mandatory consultation. • Qualification or disqualification with respect to the use of IMF or other credit facilities (for example, central banks’ swap lines). • Interest or other financial penalties or incentives along the lines under consideration in Europe. But, if approaches that build on past failure do not seem sufficiently effective, perhaps a new approach toward currency fluctuations would be more promising. That would require some agreement about appropriate “equilibrium” exchange rates, with a fairly wide band that would allow for uncertainty and permit the market to exert its own discipline. But individual countries would orient intervention and economic policies toward defending the equilibrium rate, or, more radically, an international authority might authorize aggressive intervention by trading partners to promote consistency. An appropriate reserve currency and adequate international liquidity represent another central concern. For years, the pragmatic answer has been the dollar, and to some extent other national currencies, giving rise to complaints of an “inordinate privilege” for the US. But it is not in America’s interest to accentuate and extend its payment deficits at the expense of an internationally competitive economy with strong industry and restrained consumption. And the rest of the world wants the flexibility afforded by the currency of the largest, strongest, and most stable economy. A useful reserve currency must be limited in supply, but have sufficient elasticity to satisfy the large, unpredictable needs that may arise in a turbulent financial world. Above all, confidence in its stability and availability must be maintained, which highlights the practicality of a national currency, or perhaps a variety of national currencies. © Project Syndicate/Fung Global Institute, 2012. www.project-syndicate.org
Executives don’t value their pay plans Incentives have become so complex and volatile that they no longer motivate the executives they are aimed at, according to new PwC research. Incentives have become so complex and volatile that they no longer motivate the executives they are aimed at, according to new PwC research. The study, in conjunction with the London School of Economics and Political Science, found that many features of current pay packages mean that the value executives place on them is materially lower than the cost to companies of providing them. In many cases executives would be happier being paid a smaller salary in a less complex and less volatile form. The “Psychology of Incentives” study of over 1,100 participants reveals that executives are risk-averse, don’t like complexity and discount deferred pay. According to the research, deferred bonuses hold little incentive, with the majority of executives valuing a GBP 100 of bonus in a typical deferral plan at only half its value (GBP 50). This
discount is massively in excess of economic discount rates and the perceived value drops to as low as GBP 33 for younger employees (those under the age of 39). Discounts also vary significantly in different regions of the world, showing that “one-size fits all” pay packages may be ineffective. “These findings place a major question mark over the effectiveness of deferred bonuses, which have been championed by shareholders, regulators and corporate governance bodies as a powerful way of influencing behaviour while at the same time encouraging prudent risktaking,” said Tom Gosling, head of PwC’s reward practice. “It is difficult to see how a form of pay that has such low perceived value can have a significant influence on behaviour. A very real consequence is that as deferral increases, we would expect there to be pressure to increase
pay levels.” Complex and uncertain incentives are also revealed as a massive turn-off for most people. The research reveals that two thirds more respondents (51% versus 27%) favoured a cash plan based on profit targets that they understand over a more ambiguous share plan based on their share price relative to other companies. The more complicated the reward, the more likely participants were to choose the smaller but more certain reward. “UK executive pay is based on the motivational theory that loading executives up with large amounts of incentive pay with complex performance conditions means that they’ll perform better for shareholders. Unfortunately this isn’t supported by our study, which shows that complex pay plans are a motivation killer. The more complex the pay, the lower the value in executives’ eyes,” Gosling added.
June 6 - 12, 2012
FinancialMirror.com
10 GOOD LIVING
Editor: Matthew Stowell
The Elysium - A Happy Refuge The Elysium in Paphos is a hotel that is truly worthy of its five-star status. If a sixth star were available, this happy refuge would certainly be the first to earn it. What makes this hotel so special? First of all, it is isolated from the glut of hotels along the main sea road of Paphos. If you seek peace and quiet, as I do when I venture away from home, this is an important factor. Secondly, it is situated directly on the beach and features a simple, tranquil strand in front of enormous well-manicured gardens that provide a picture-perfect view from your balcony or restaurant table. These royal gardens include a large outdoor pool that meanders lagoon-style under bridges and around date palm trees, encompassing plenty of shallow areas for children and long uninterrupted stretches for the serious lap swimmer. And there are two well-kept tennis courts, though they are of the hard carpet variety, as found all over Cyprus. The structure of the building is itself impressive. The mixed architecture is palatial, reportedly influenced by the Byzantine era (think Ayia Sophia in Istanbul), but to my mind it most resembles a colonial Spanish mission in Mexico with squared-off corner towers, gentle arches, beige-tiled roof and light ochre colours throughout. The interior lobby is grandiose with vaulted ceilings, expansive marble flooring, plush sofas and easy chairs, majestic staircases leading down to restaurant and spa areas and wide, arched windows looking out to the sea. The well-executed murals depicting characters and scenes from Greek mythology, the artful
mosaics and many Doric columns create a strong sense of Hellenic tradition. The rooms—there are at least 12 different categories—are all first class, all with balconies, high quality beds and linens, roomy desks, wifi availability, intelligently designed bathrooms and showers, plenty of closet space and thick walls that eliminate peripheral noise. Most rooms face the sea, but there are some on the backside of the hotel that do not, so it’s best to request a sea view. The Opium Health Spa is reputedly one of the best in Europe. It is large enough to contain a long indoor pool and Jacuzzi plus several rooms for massage, exercise and other health treatments. If you book a massage with them, I guarantee you will get your money’s worth, as it is thorough, expertly performed and never rushed. Then there is the matter of the food. The breakfast buffet at the Elysium is a marvel, and except for what is available on a Cunard luxury oceanliner, there is nothing to which it compares. There are more varieties of breads, rolls, toasts, buns and croissants than you’d find in most bakeries. There are mountains of fresh fruit, nuts, and dried fruit; piles of high quality cold cuts, cheeses, smoked herring and salmon; a wide assortment of cereals and beverages; steam tables with all the makings of the full English Breakfast (if you must); grilled halloumi, scrambled eggs, bacon, and potatoes; plus live cooking sta-
tions that prepare custom-made omelets. If you awake in a feisty sort of mood, there are even ice-filled buckets with bottles of sparkling wine. In addition, there are six different restaurants on site, the Bacco being the most well-known and consistently awarded. The Epicurean Restaurant specializes in Mediterranean fish and meat dishes, the Brasserie Messina offers authentic French cuisine, the Mediterraneo focuses on Cypriot and Mediterranean specialities, O’Shin is a popular sushi restaurant and the Lemonia Piazza, using an international menu, is open for al fresco dining. If you can only visit one of these, I would recommend the Bacco for its genuine Northern Italian cuisine, its superior wine list and first class service (see sidebar). In the end, however, it is the people who work in a hotel that really make the difference, and the Elysium is blessed with a staff of competent, well-trained, considerate employees who go out of their way to accommodate. The staffs at most of the other fivestar hotels in Cyprus are equally competent and friendly but at the Elysium, employees seem to actually enjoy going the extra distance to please. The Elysium is an exceptionally sophisticated hotel with a staff that is more than serious about its profession. They are quite in love with it. By Matthew Stowell
Ristorante Bacco The Ristorante Bacco at the Elysium hotel is one of a very few fine dining establishments in Cyprus that never disappoints. The décor is not only elegant, it also inspires in its well-thought-out, simple but sophisticated beauty. Service is friendly, considerate and very efficient. The sommelier is a pleasant young man with great enthusiasm as well as the necessary skills and knowledge we would expect in a top tier restaurant. His passion almost palpable, it’s clear that he loves his job. The wine list itself has been wisely assembled and although not inexpensive, prices are not off the charts either (unless you insist on Petrus or Laffite-Rothschild). It includes— not counting the excellent selection of Champagnes and sparkling wines—38 labels from Italy (among them Masi and Angelo Gaja), 30 from France (Guigal, and the great Bordeaux houses), 15 from Cyprus (8 different estates), and 22 from Greece (Hadjimichalis, Nico Lazarides). Bacco is part of a small luxury restaurant chain from Tuscany so its menu naturally focuses on Italian cuisine. Appetizers use genuine aged Parmesan, fresh Buffalo mozzarella, Sicilian tuna and homemade crostini. Salads feature wonderful mascarpone and gorgonzola cheeses, while pastas of tagliolini, pappardelle and linguine are homemade and cooked to al dente perfection. There is also, of course, rich, meticulously made risotto, the true test of an Italian kitchen. The fish, meat and poultry are all first class. We can personally attest to the excellence of the Grilled Marinated Beef Rib Eye, which was presented in hearty but tenderly juicy slices, along with green beans and potato salad, and the Slow-Braised Veal Shank (Ossobuco alla Milanese), the intense flavours of which (due in large part to the combination of bone marrow and gremolada) sent us straight back to the fragrant streets of Milan. Desserts include a choice of ice creams, strawberry salad, lemon panacotta with Amarena cherries and tiramisu, among other sweets. Prices are €43 for two courses, €52 for three, and €61 for four. The Elysium has several other dining venues from casual to luxury, but for that night out when you and/or a loved one want to experience something special, Bacco is your best bet. Bacco at the Elysium Hotel-Resort. Tel. 2684 4444. Monday-Saturday, 7.30 – 10.30pm.
June 6 - 12, 2012
FinancialMirror.com
GOOD LIVING
11
World Chefs:
Anthony Cumberbatch at Bubbas in London Anthony Cumberbatch is setting new standards for Caribbean food at the newly opened Bubba’s Restaurant in Tulse Hill. Named the ‘Best Caribbean Chef in the UK’ in 2006, Cumberbatch has trained at the Savoy and the Ivy, and he’s also cooked for Mick Jagger and George Clooney. Combining his Michelin-star training with the tricks he learned growing up on a farm in Barbados, Cumberbatch is spicing up the Caribbean food scene in London.
Why have you chosen to specialize in Caribbean food?
I’ve always looked at Caribbean cuisine and you mainly get takeaways. They do good food but to me, Caribbean chefs aren’t really put on the map properly for their food, so I wanted to do something different. I worked at the Caribbean Scene in the Docklands and from there I opened up my own place called Bamboo Grove in Croydon but that was always a bit rocky because we opened during the recession so we had to close. Caribbean food has to done in a certain way. You’ve got famous Italian food, you’ve got the French but not Caribbean.
What’s your experience with Caribbean food?
I was born in Dulwich and I got sent to Barbados when I was one. I grew up with my grandparents and my grandmother used to cook your sweetbreads, cakes, jerk chicken - she used to cook all of the different dishes; how they cook in Barbados is different from the Jamaican style. My granddad as well, he had a farm so we used to have cows, pigs, chickens, rabbits, goats, sheep. He also used to be a butcher - he did his butchering on the weekend and he’d sell the meat to the locals and then we’d go to church. I was bought up on fresh food so I was always around good cooking.
How do you bring your training in Michelin-starred restaurants to your cooking?
My food is a Caribbean cuisine but I’ve mixed it up with French. At the end of the day it’s all about presentation – the food needs to look good, it needs to look like art. So I’ve mixed and matched certain flavours and styles. For example I’ve got jerk pork which I’ve mixed with beetroot ravioli and a dash of trout roe vinaigrette which no one would
think about putting together. Normally if you go to Caribbean restaurants you get rice and beans which go on the same plate and then a salad. I hate flat food. I like to work up and across the place and serve sides in separate dishes.
Bubbas Restaurant: 7a Station Rise, Tulse Hill, London SE27 9BW. http://www.bubbasrestaurant.co.uk/
What inspired you to be a chef?
INGREDIENTS
I left school and I thought to myself, what can I actually do? I’m thinking, hmm hairdressing? Or catering? I did catering at college and I loved it. Before that I did home economics at school and I blew up a soufflé in the oven - I knew I had to get better so that’s why I did it. I did work experience at the Savoy hotel. I actually went through the wrong door. I was meant to go to Simpson’s in the Strand, which is the first door but I walked into the second door. I thought I was meant to be there until my tutor rang me up said, ‘where are you?’ I said, ‘I’m here, at the Savoy.’ He said ‘no you’re meant to be in the Savoy company at another restaurant.’ So I had to apologize to the chefs but they said I could stay. It was a great opportunity. I saw 150-odd cutlets go straight in the bin there because they were rubbish - I really learnt about standards.
Why have you chosen Tulse Hill for Bubbas?
It was really the choice of Antoinette [the owner of Bubbas]. Tulse Hill is not a bad little spot, it’s close to Dulwich where I was born so you’ve got a mixture of white, black, Indian (people). Last night we had a full restaurant. It was mainly English people at the tables which I quite like because it’s about getting people used to our cuisine. It’s my hope to change people’s attitudes about Caribbean food because I think some of the restaurants can let you down. The service needs to be good or you might as well just order a Big Mac.
Anthony Cumberbatch‘s Jerk Beef Wellington recipe
1 kg of beef fillet 3 tbsp olive oil 250g/9oz chestnut mushrooms 50g/2oz butter 1 large sprig fresh thyme 100ml/3/5fl oz dry white wine 12 slices prosciutto 500g/1 lb 2 oz pack puff pastry, thawed if frozen A little flour, for dusting 2 egg yolks beaten with 1 tsp water ½ onion diced 2 cloves chopped garlic
For Jerk seasoning:
1 tbsp of all spice (ground) 1 hot pepper (scotch bonnet) 2 spring onions ½ onion (chopped) 1 garlic clove 1 tsp of ginger 1 tsp of thyme ¼ tsp of nutmeg ¼ tsp cinnamon ¼ tsp black pepper ½ tbsp limejuice 2 tbsp vegetable oil
METHOD
In a blender or food processor blend all ingredients to a smooth paste. Rub the jerk marinade onto the beef fillet and place to one side. Heat oven to 220C/fan 200C/gas 7. Sit the 1 kg beef fillet on a roasting tray, brush with 1 tbsp olive oil. Then roast for 15 mins for medi-
um-rare. Remove from the oven to cool, then chill in the fridge for about 20 mins. While the beef is cooling, chop chestnut (and wild, if you like) mushrooms as finely as possible so they have the texture of coarse breadcrumbs. You can use a food processor to do this, but make sure you pulse-chop the mushrooms so they don’t become a slurry. Heat the olive oil and butter in a large pan and fry the mushrooms on a medium heat. Add the fresh thyme, for about 10 mins stirring often, until cooked. Season the mushroom mixture. Add the dry white wine and cook for another 10 mins until all the wine has been absorbed. The mixture should hold its shape when stirred. Remove the mushroom duxelle from the pan to cool and discard the thyme. Overlap two pieces of cling film over a large chopping board. Lay the slices of prosciutto on the cling film, slightly overlapping, in a double row. Spread half the duxelles over the prosciutto. Sit the fillet on it and spread the remaining duxelles over. Use the cling film’s edges to draw the prosciutto around the fillet. Then roll it into a sausage shape, twisting the ends of cling film to tighten it as you go. Chill the fillet while you roll out the pastry. Dust your work surface with a little flour. Roll out a third of the puff pastry to a 18 x 30cm strip and place on a nonstick baking sheet. Roll out the remainder of the puff pastry to about 28 x 36cm. Unravel the fillet from the cling film and sit it in the centre of the smaller strip of pastry. Beat the egg yolks and brush the pastry’s edges, and the top and sides of the wrapped fillet. Using a rolling pin, carefully lift and drape the larger piece of pastry over the fillet, pressing well into the sides. Trim the joins to about a 4cm rim. Seal the rim with the edge of a fork or spoon handle. Glaze all over with more egg yolk. Using the back of a knife, mark the beef Wellington with long diagonal lines taking care not to cut into the pastry. Chill for at least 30 mins and up to 24 hrs. Heat oven to 200C/fan 180C/gas 6. Brush the Jerk Beef Wellington with a little more egg yolk and cook until golden and crisp - 20-25 mins for medium-rare beef. Allow to stand for 10 mins before serving.
WeeklyTaste Santorini Dry White 2011, Hatzidakis Winery, Santorini, Greece, 13.5% alc. €14 from La Maison du Vin, Limassol and Nicosia If you’ve never tried an Assyrtiko from Santorini before, do yourself a big favour and run out and pick up a couple of bottles. There are several labels available in Cyprus cavas and supermarkets, ranging widely in quality and price. This version, made by one of the top wineries in Santorini, from
very old vines growing out of volcanic soil, never fails to please. It is extremely smooth, a touch spicy, with a fat and juicy mouthfeel, perfect acidity (making it a great hot summer day quaff) and displays an overall lively always-ready-to-please personality. A wellmade Assyrtiko that will age nicely for 5 to 10 years and a bargain at €14. Oinanthi Grenache 2010, Gaia Winery, Ayios Amvrosios, Paphos, 14% alc. €6.89 Distributed by Ghalanos (Intercellars) A delicious rosé with aromas and subtle flavours of raspberry and other red berries,
this organically produced wine has improved much since Ioanna Panayiotou first began making it. It contains a tiny bit of sweetness which is offset perfectly by a pomegranate-like astringency. Being made from 100% Grenache, it is similar to a French rosé with no surprises or new insights (as in the Zambartas or the new Einalia from K&K Vasilikon), but it is a very serviceable wine that pairs well with most dishes in the Mediterranean kitchen, including
souvla, as its tannins are sturdy enough for that savoury meat’s fat. Sipped by itself, on a balcony with seaview, it recalls romantic lunches in Marseilles. Correction: Last week we reviewed 2 excellent Cypriot wines, the Vlassides Shiraz and the Argyrides Merlot/Cabernet. We said that the Vlassides had won a Gold at this year’s Cyprus Wine Competition and the Argyrides had won a Silver. In fact, it was the reverse.
June 6 - 12, 2012
FinancialMirror.com
COMMENT NEWS 12 COMPANY
Murder mystery at Crowne Plaza “Move Over Dahling”, a murder mystery charity theatre event is taking place at Limassol’s Crowne Plaze at the end of this month, attracting fans of whodunits to a gala dinner/fundraiser in aid of the Theotokos Foundation and St Lukas.
The two-night performances by Murder We Wrote, billed as the U.K.’s premier murder mystery company will be held on June 29 and July 1. At 100 euros per person, tickets include a fantastic buffet dinner with wines and non alcoholic beverages and cocktails and an after-dinner dance. Dress code is formal (or period 1920s) and tickets are available from 2537 8476 or 9922 7795.
PwC leader in IDC MarketScape Study PwC named a leader in business consulting services PwC announced it has been named a leader in business consulting services in the worldwide, Americas and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) markets, according to the 2012 IDC MarketScape reports based on a vendor analysis model designed to provide an overview of the competitive fitness of suppliers in a given market. According to the reports, PwCwas also considered a “Major Player” in the Asia/Pacific market. “Worldwide, PwC is seen as better than many of its peers at providing a full spectrum of business consulting services and at helping enterprises comply with new or existing regulations and manage risk. PwC is also seen as better than many of its peers at helping clients reduce costs,” according to IDC. “[In the Americas,] PwC is seen as among the most capable at integrating its project team with the client’s and at providing a full spectrum of business consulting services. It is also seen as better than many of its peers at challenging corporate culture.”
Oracle is No. 1 in Application Server Market for 2012 Oracle is again the the Number 1 vendor in the Application Server category with a market share of 43.1% based on revenue, according to the most recent Gartner “Market Share: All Software Markets, Worldwide 2011” report. With a strong growth rate of 18.4%, higher even than in 2010, Oracle continues to lead the application server category with a total market share (based on revenue) greater than the next three competitors combined and almost 10 points higher than its nearest competitor.
NCR announces strong Q1 results Youth fitness group in Nicosia
NCR Corporation reported financial results recently for the three months ended March 31, 2012.
Youth Movement Performance, the brainchild of Andreas Prezas a fitness expert, coach and athlete with more than 15 years of exReported revenue of $1.24 bln increased 18% from the first quarter of 2011. perience in the field of physical education, nutrition, strength and First-quarter revenues include a negative impact of 1% as a result of foreign conditioning, has started classes in Nicosia. currency translation. Youth Movement Performances hourly classes are offered three times a week and have been designed especially to meet the fitness needs and levels of children aged 6 to 13 and aim to encourage a greater level of physical activity amongst children. A recent study from the Institute of Child Health confirmed that obesity is on the rise in Cyprus and said that the island ranks second in Europe in terms of overweight children. “We all know that food is a big part of our culture in Cyprus. However, the widespread availability of fast food, coupled with the sedentary lifestyles of our children who prefer to go online or play video games rather than play outside with friends is contributing to this alarming problem”, said Prezas. Classes will take place at Oxygen Gym on Monday to Friday afternoons. For information call Andreas Prezas at 99372178.
CIM offers British BAs in Cyprus The Cyprus Institute of Marketing, member of the Network of International Business Schools (NIBS) announced it is offering British degrees locally as of October 2012. The three degree courses are: University of West London – BA(Hons) in Business Studies with Marketing (3 years). Fees: 6500 Euros per year. University of West London – BA(Hons) in Accounting & Finance (3 years). Maximum exemptions from ACCA. Fees: 6500 Euro per year. London South Bank University – MBA (15 months/Non-Experience). Fees: 8000 Euros. All the programmes are offered through evening classes in Nicosia and Limassol and are recognisable by KYSATS qualifying for the government subsidy. For information contact Liza Zamba on 22778475, www.cima.ac.cy.
“Our strong first quarter results were driven by continued momentum in our Financial Services business, particularly among U.S. regional banks and in emerging markets worldwide,” said Bill Nuti, chairman and CEO of NCR. “This growth was supported by continued traction in our new Hospitality vertical, as-expected contributions from Retail Solutions, and continued penetration into emerging industry verticals. NCR is driving profitable growth in and around its core businesses, with a focus on increasing the software and services component of our revenue mix. Our excellent start to the year and continued good execution give us the confidence to raise our outlook for 2012.”
Gulf Air wins Family Friendly award Gulf Air has won the Family Friendly Airline Award 2012 in an online Facebook poll by US-based Kids First Fund. The Fund – an organization devoted to helping children in need across the world – introduced the annual award to identify airlines that provide innovative services and added comfort to children and parents resulting in a better onboard environment for all travelers. A panel of five airline and travel industry leaders selected finalists from a host of airline nominees before letting the public vote on the ultimate winner. Gulf Air was the best Family Friendly Airline after receiving almost 80% of the votes.
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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 6 π√À¡π√À, 2012
°ÂÚÌ·ÓÈο ·˙¿ÚÈ· ÁÈ· Eurolife Î·È °ÂÓÈΤ˜ ∞ÛÊ¿ÏÂȘ ¶¤Ú·Ó ·fi ÙËÓ Deutsche Bank ÂӉȷʤÚÔÓ ˘¿Ú¯ÂÈ Î·È ·fi ¿ÏϘ ‰‡Ô ÂÙ·ÈÚ›˜ Ë Ì›· ÂÎ ÙˆÓ ÔÔ›ˆÓ ¤¯ÂÈ ¤ÓÙÔÓË ·ÚÔ˘Û›· fiÏÔ ÛÙÔÓ ∞Ú·‚ÈÎfi ∫fiÏ
∫∞∆∞ƒ·Ì¤ÓË Â¤Ó‰˘ÛË ∏ ÔÏ˘‰È·ÊËÌÈ˙fiÌÂÓË Â¤Ó‰˘ÛË ÙÔ˘ ∫·Ù¿Ú «Î·Ù¿ÓÙËÛ ÌÈ· ηٷڷ̤ÓË Â¤Ó‰˘ÛË» Η επένδυση του Κατάρ στο οικÞπεδο απέναντι απÞ το Χίλτον πιθανώσ να µην προχωρήσει, δήλωσε ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµιών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή, προσθέτοντασ Þτι ο Εµίρησ του Κατάρ έχει εκφράσει πρÞθεση να προχωρήσει σε κάποια επένδυση ή σε κάποιεσ επενδύσεισ στην Κύπρο. Η ενηµέρωση του κ. Σιαρλή στην Επιτροπή Ελέγχου για το Þλο θέµα, προκάλεσε επικρίσεισ απÞ τον µέλη τησ Επιτροπήσ, µε τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ να κάνει λÞγο για επενδύσεισ που αποδείχθηκαν «φούµαρα». Ενηµερώνοντασ την Επιτροπή Ελέγχου, ο κ. Σιαρλή ανέφερε Þτι ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ∆ηµήτρησ ΧριστÞφιασ απέστειλε επιστολή µε ηµεροµηνία 2 Απριλίου ζητώντασ απÞ τον Εµίρη να διευκρινίσει τισ προθέσεισ του για το Þλο ζήτηµα, επιστολή η οποία, Þπωσ είπε, δεν έχει ακÞµη απαντηθεί. «Μπορεί τελικά και εκ των πραγµάτων η συγκεκριµένη επένδυση, πιθανώσ να µην προχωρήσει για διάφορουσ λÞγουσ», πρÞσθεσε ο κ. Σιαρλή, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι σε πολιτικÞ επίπεδο αναµένεται το ξεκαθάρισµα των προθέσεων του Εµίρη. Σε δηλώσεισ µετά το πέρασ τησ συνεδρίασ, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Επιτροπήσ, Βουλευτήσ του ∆ΗΣΥ Γιώργοσ Γεωργίου, παρατήρησε πωσ η πολυδιαφηµιζÞµενη, Þπωσ χαρακτήρισε την επένδυση του Κατάρ «κατάντησε µια καταραµένη επένδυση η οποία εν πάση περιπτώσει, εµµέσωσ πλην σαφώσ, ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών µασ ανέφερε Þτι δεν πρÞκειται να γίνει», κάνοντασ λÞγο για Κυβέρνηση «των ανικάνων».
Σε άλλα χέρια αναµένεται να καταλήξουν κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα τÞσο η Eurolife, Þσο και οι Γενικέσ Ασφάλειεσ Κύπρου καθώσ σύµφωνα µε ασφαλείσ πληροφορίεσ µασ, η Deutsche Bank, προχώρησε σε έρευνα due dilligence εκ µέρουσ επενδυτών-ενδιαφεροµένων και αναµένεται πριν το τέλοσ του τρέχοντοσ µηνÞσ να υποβάλουν πρÞταση συνεργασίασ στο ΣυγκρÞτηµα τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου τησ οποίασ οι δύο ασφαλιστικέσ αποτελούν θυγατρικέσ. Ενδιαφέρον φαίνεται να εξέφρασε και η γαλλική ΑΧΑ. Ùπωσ πληροφορούµαστε στÞχοσ των ενδιαφερÞµενων επενδυτών είναι να αποκτήσουν το 51% των δύο εταιρειών οι οποίεσ θεωρούνται πρωτοπÞρεσ στον Κλάδοσ Ζωήσ και στο ΓενικÞ Κλάδο αντίστοιχα. Το deal σύµφωνα µε καλούσ γνώστεσ του θέµατοσ αναµένεται να κλείσει στα 200 εκ. ευρώ ποσÞ το οποίο χρειάζεται η Τράπεζα Κύπρου ενÞψει τησ επικείµενησ επανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των κυπριακών τραπεζών, η οποία -τουλάχιστον µε τα µέχρι σήµερα δεδοµένα- έχει ωσ ηµεροµηνία λήξεωσ την 30ή Ιουνίου. Για αυτÞ το θέµα να θυµίσουµε η Κεντρική Τράπεζα καταβάλλει προσπάθεια ώστε η προθεσµία να λήξει στο τέλοσ Αυγούστου. Οι επενδυτέσ αποδεικνύονται πάντωσ σκληροί διαπραγµατευτέσ απαιτώντασ το τίµηµα που θα δώσουν να είναι λιγÞτερο απÞ αυτά που ζητά η Τράπεζα µε αποτέλεσµα
να γίνεται ένα είδοσ παζαριού. Πέραν απÞ την Deutsche Bank ενδιαφέρον υπάρχει και απÞ άλλεσ δύο εταιρείεσ η µία εκ των οποίων έχει έντονη παρουσία στον ΑραβικÞ ΚÞλπο, ωστÞσο οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι που εκπροσωπεί η Deutsche Bank φαίνεται να έχουν ξεκάθαρο προβάδισµα. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη το θέµα τησ πώλησησ των δύο ασφαλιστικών εταιρειών τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, απασχολεί και την Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ η οποία διερευνά σχετική καταγγελία σύµφωνα µε την οποία υπάρχει πρÞθεση απÞ την Τράπεζα να πωλήσει τισ ασφαλιστικέσ εταιρείεσ σε συγκεκριµένο αγοραστή ο οποίοσ δεν κατονοµάζεται. ΠΑΥΛΟΣ ΓΕΩΡΓΙΑ∆ΗΣ
∏ ÒÚ· Ù˘ ·Ï‹ıÂÈ·˜ ÛÙÔÓ ÂӉȿÌÂÛÔ ¯ÒÚÔ Σήµερα εκτÞσ συγκλονιστικού απροÞπτου αναµένεται να δούµε την ώρα τησ αλήθειασ Þσον αφορά το κατά πÞσον θα υπάρξει ή Þχι υποψήφιοσ στον ενδιάµεσο χώρο τησ Κύπρου. Με βάση τα µέχρι στιγµήσ δεδοµένα θα θεωρηθεί µεγάλη έκπληξη τα τέσσερα κÞµµατα, ∆ΗΚΟ, Ε∆ΕΚ, ΕΥΡΩΚΟ και ΟικολÞγοι να καταλήξουν σε κοινÞ υποψήφιο µετά το ναυάγιο τησ υποψηφιÞτητασ Μάκη Κεραυνού. Η υποψηφιÞτητα Γιώργου Λιλλήκα, που προτάθηκε απÞ Ε∆ΕΚ, έχει απορριφθεί ασυζητητί απÞ τον ΠρÞεδρο του ∆ΗΚΟ, Þπωσ ασυζητητί απέρριψε η Ε∆ΕΚ την υποψηφιÞτητα Χρίστου Μαυρέλλη, στην οποία επιµένει ο Μάριοσ Καρογιάν. Ούτε συζήτηση δεν φαίνεται να αναµένεται και για άλλα ονÞµατα που είχαν τεθεί απÞ διάφορεσ πλευρέσ στισ προηγούµενεσ συναντήσεισ. Έτσι, απÞ την Πέµπτη επτά Ιουνίου, και µε δεδοµένη την αποτυχία κοινήσ συµπÞρευσησ, και τα τέσσερα κÞµµατα προχωρούν, επίσηµα πλέον, στην ετοιµασία εναλλακτικού σχεδίου βήτα. Το σχέδιο θα αφορά δύο ενδεχÞµενα: Είτε, πρώτο, να κατέλθουν αυτÞνοµα µε δικÞ τουσ υποψήφιο, είτε, δεύτερο, να υποστηρίξουν απÞ τον πρώτο γύρο, κάποιον απÞ τουσ Νίκο Αναστασιάδη ή Γιώργο Λιλλήκα. Το ενδεχÞµενο καθÞδου στισ προεδρικέσ µε δικÞ τησ υποψήφιο, και µάλλον τον Γιαννάκη Οµήρου, είναι στο τραπέζι για την Ε∆ΕΚ, µε την υποψηφιÞτητα του Γιώργου Λιλλήκα επίσησ να έχει σοβαρέσ πιθανÞτητεσ. Πιο δύσκολα είναι τα πράγµατα για το ∆ΗΚΟ, αφού η υποστήριξη υποψηφίου απÞ το ΑΚΕΛ, που είναι η άλλη επιλογή, έχει πολλούσ πολέµιουσ. Ο επικοινωνιολÞγοσ του ∆ΗΚΟ είχε υποδείξει την ανάγκη η υποψηφιÞτητα που θα στηρίξει το κÞµµα να µην είναι επιλογή ήττασ, αλλά αυθεντική υποψηφιÞτητα του ∆ηµοκρατικού ΚÞµµατοσ, που να µπορεί να εξασφαλίσει την ενίσχυση τησ κοµµατικήσ γραµµήσ και πρωτίστωσ τη συσπείρωση του ∆ΗΚΟ. Στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΚÞµµα Þλα τα ενδεχÞµενα είναι ανοικτά, µε µÞνο δεδοµένο Þτι οι διεργασίεσ στον ενδιάµεσο
χώρο έχουν προκαλέσει πολλαπλέσ διαφωνίεσ. Καλοί γνώστεσ του θέµατοσ δεν απέκλεισαν υποψηφιÞτητα ∆ηµήτρη Συλλούρη. Στουσ ΟικολÞγουσ, προσανατολίζονται, αφού ξεκαθαρίσει πρώτα το τελικÞ σκηνικÞ µε τουσ υποψηφίουσ, να στηριχθεί κάποιοσ απÞ τον πρώτο γύρο, µε µÞνο Þρο αυτÞσ να έχει την έγκριση του 60% των µελών του Κινήµατοσ, ενώ σε αντίθετη περίπτωση θα ληφθεί απÞφαση για ψήφο κατά βούληση. Επικρατέστεροσ για την ώρα για στήριξη εµφανίζεται ο Γιώργοσ Λιλλήκασ. ΤΟ ΑΚΕΛ ∆ΕΧΕΤΑΙ ΠΡΟΤΑΣΕΙΣ Τέλοσ το ΑΚΕΛ είναι έτοιµο να συζητήσει µε κÞµµατα που ενδιαφέρονται για συνεργασία στισ προεδρικέσ εκλογέσ, ακÞµα και να δεχτεί προτάσεισ για ονÞµατα υποψηφίων, ανέφερε ο ΚοινοβουλευτικÞσ ΕκπρÞσωποσ του ΚÞµµατοσ Νίκοσ Κατσουρίδησ. ΠρÞσθεσε ωστÞσο Þτι την ίδια ώρα το κÞµµα συζητά και το δεύτερο σενάριο, που είναι αυτÞ τησ εξεύρεσησ υποψηφίου απÞ τον ευρύτερο προοδευτικÞ χώρο, αφού δεν µπορεί Þπωσ είπε, να συζητά επ’ άπειρον.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
6 IOYNIOY, 2012
2/14 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ
™Ù· Úfiı˘Ú· ηٿÚÚ¢Û˘ Ë ∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË fi‰Ô˘ ·fi ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ Ë ∂ÏÏ¿‰·, ÛÙ· Úfiı fiı˘Ú· ÚÔÛÊ˘Á‹˜ ™ÙË ‰›ÓË ÙÚ·Â˙È΋˜ ÎÚ›Û˘ Ë πÛ·Ó›·, ÛÙÔ Î·ÙÒÊÏÈ ÂÍfi‰ fiÛÌÔ ÙÔ˘˜ ÔÈ °ÂÚÌ·ÓÔ› ÂÓÒ Ë Fed Â›Ó·È fiÏ fiÏÔ Î·È ÈÔ ÎÔÓÙ¿ ÛÙÔ QE3 ÛÙÔÓ Ì˯·ÓÈÛÌfi ÛÙ‹ÚÈ͢ Ë ∫‡ÚÔ˜, ÛÙÔÓ ÎfiÛ ¡π∫√™ ªπÃ∞∏§π¢∏™ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com
Πτωτικά κινήθηκε για άλλη µια εβδοµάδα η ισοτιµία Ευρώ – ∆ολαρίου, την πέµπτη διαδοχική, υποχωρώντασ κάτω απÞ το ψυχολογικÞ φράγµα του 1.2500, σηµειώνοντασ απανωτά νέα χαµηλά δύο ετών. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2550 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ διολίσθησε µέχρι και τα 1.2270, για να διορθώσει στην συνέχεια κοντά στα 1.2450 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Είδη η ισοτιµία σηµείωσε µηνιαία πτώση πέραν του 7% τισ µεγαλύτερεσ απώλειεσ σε διάστηµα ενÞσ µήνα απÞ τον περασµένο Σεπτέµβριο. Η έκρυθµη κατάσταση στην Ευρωζώνη και ειδικÞτερα η αδιαφορία τησ Γερµανίασ να πράξει τα αυτονÞητα για να αποτρέψει την διάλυση τησ Ευρωζώνησ έχει αναγκάσει τισ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ των αναδυÞµενων οικονοµιών να µειώσουν σε σηµαντικÞ βαθµÞ τα αποθέµατά τουσ σε ευρώ προκειµένου να προστατεύσουν τα εγχώρια νοµίσµατά τουσ. Μέχρι πρÞτινοσ συνήθιζαν να επενδύουν στο ευρώ, κυρίωσ Þταν η ισοτιµία του υποχωρούσε, προκειµένου να έχουν µια ευρεία
γκάµα συναλλαγµατικών αποθεµάτων αλλά και ένα αντίβαρο έναντι του δολαρίου. Την ώρα Þµωσ που επιδεινώνεται η κρίση στην ευρωζώνη και πληθαίνουν τα σενάρια για ενδεχÞµενη έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ το ευρώ, οι χώρεσ αυτέσ αναπροσαρµÞζουν την στρατηγική τουσ. Το τελευταίο διάστηµα το ενδιαφέρον και ο ενθουσιασµÞσ των κεντρικών τραπεζών για το ενιαίο ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα έχει σχεδÞν εξανεµιστεί. Για ασυνήθιστα µεγάλεσ πωλήσεισ ευρώ απÞ τισ αναδυÞµενεσ οικονοµίεσ τον Μάιο, κάνει λÞγο η Bank of America. Οι FT ωστÞσο δεν αναφέρουν ποιεσ χώρεσ ξεφορτώθηκαν τα ευρώ τουσ. Σύµφωνα µε την ίδια πηγή hedgefunds και θεσµικοί επενδυτέσ ξεφορτώθηκαν επίσησ µεγάλο µέροσ των αποθεµάτων τουσ σε ευρώ τον περασµένο µήνα. Πολύ κρίσιµοσ αναµένεται να είναι ο Ιούνιοσ Þπου σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ θα κριθεί κατά πÞσο η Ελλάδα θα παραµείνει στο Ευρώ ενώ θα ξεκαθαρίσει επίσησ αν και πωσ θα προσφύγουν στον µηχανισµÞ στήριξησ η Ισπανία και η Κύπροσ. Επίσησ θα κριθεί εάν και πÞτε θα προχωρήσει και η Fed µε το περιβÞητο QE3. Οι αγορέσ περιµένουν καταρχήν µε µεγάλη αγωνία το αποτέλεσµα των εκλογών στην Ελλάδα στισ 17 Ιουνίου Þπου θα κριθεί σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ η παραµονή τησ Ελλάδασ στο
™˘Ìʈӛ· G.A.P. Vassilopoulos - Otero Holdings Ltd Συµφωνία συγχώνευσησ τησ θυγατρικήσ εταιρείασ G.A.P.Vassilopoulos Easy Payments Limited µε την Otero Holdings Limited ανακοινώθηκε πρÞσφατα καθαρά για επιχειρηµατικούσ λÞγουσ συνέργειασ. Ο κύκλοσ εργασιών τησ εταιρείασ G.A.P.Vassilopoulos Easy Payments Ltd για το έτοσ 2011 ήταν 11.9 εκ. ευρώ ενώ τησ εταιρείασ Otero ήταν 33.6 εκ. ευρώ. Η εταιρεία Otero δραστηριοποιείται στην αγορά τησ Κύπρου, στον τοµέα ανανέωσησ χρÞνου οµιλίασ κινητήσ τηλεφωνίασ (top-up), του προπληρωµένου χρÞνου οµιλίασ κινητήσ και σταθερήσ τηλεφωνίασ και επίσησ προπληρωµένεσ αγορέσ στο internet, απÞ το έτοσ 2009. Σύµφωνα µε σχετική ανακοίνωση, η συγχώνευση αυτή δεν σχετίζεται και δεν επηρεάζει συµφέροντα συνδεδεµένων µε την εταιρεία προσώπων. Παράλληλα διευκρινίζεται Þτι η συναλλαγή τησ συγχώνευσησ θα γίνει σε καθαρά εµπορική βάση.
Ã.¡.Group: ∆Ì‹Ì· ∂ÓË̤ڈÛ˘ Î·È ∆‡Ô˘ Στη δηµιουργία Τµήµατοσ Ενηµέρωσησ και Τύπου προχώρησε ο Ùµιλοσ X.N. Group, στον οποίο υπάγονται οι εταιρίεσ, Interlink developers, Interlink Constructions, Interlink Indeco, Averta Group, Ajax Hotel και D.Nikolaou. ΕκπρÞσωποσ Τύπου του Οµίλου ανέλαβε ο γνωστÞσ δηµοσιογράφοσ, µε θητεία στα µεγάλα κυπριακά τηλεοπτικά ΜΜΕ, Σωτήρησ ΠαπαδÞπουλοσ. Επίσησ, ο Ùµιλοσ θα είναι στη διάθεση των Μέσων Ενηµέρωσησ για οποιεσδήποτε πληροφορίεσ σχετικά µε τα εταιρικά νέα και τισ ειδήσεισ. Ο Ùµιλοσ προχώρησε Þµωσ τÞσο στην αναβάθµιση τησ ιστοσελίδασ του, Þσο και στην δηµιουργία σελίδων κοινωνικήσ δικτύωσησ.
SOS ÂȯÂÈÚ‹ÛÂˆÓ ÁÈ· Ú‡̷ Σήµα κινδύνου εκπέµπουν οι βιοµηχανίεσ, οι βιοτεχνίεσ, και οι µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ απÞ τισ αυξηµένεσ τιµέσ του ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ. Ενώπιον τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Εµπορίου, εκπρÞσωποι των επιχειρηµατικών κλάδων κατήγγειλαν µε δραµατικÞ τρÞπο Þτι οι επιχειρήσεισ έχουν γονατίσει απÞ τουσ φουσκωµένουσ λογαριασµούσ του ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ, µε αποτελέσµατα να προκαλούνται προβλήµατα ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Υποστήριξαν Þτι λÞγω του αυξηµένου κÞστουσ κάποιεσ βιοτεχνίεσ και βιοµηχανίεσ καθώσ και µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ οδηγούνται σε λουκέτο και ζήτησαν να καταργηθεί η επιπλέον ταρίφα (maximum demand) που επιβάλλεται λÞγω του αυξηµένου κÞστουσ παραγωγήσ απÞ την περισσÞτερη κατανάλωση. Ο εκπρÞσωποσ Τύπου τησ ΑΗΚ, Κώστασ Γαβριηλίδησ, ανέφερε Þτι η Κύπροσ επειδή είναι µικρÞ νησί έχει αποµονωµένο σύστηµα ενέργειασ, γεγονÞσ που αυξάνει το κÞστοσ παραγωγήσ. Ανέφερε εξάλλου Þτι η επιπλέον ταρίφα (maximum demand) µπορεί να εξεταστεί, ωστÞσο άλλοσ εκπρÞσωποσ τησ ΑΗΚ σηµείωσε Þτι σε περίπτωση κατάργησησ του, αυτÞ θα µεταφερθεί στο κÞστοσ ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ ανά κιλοβατώρα.
Ευρώ. ΑπÞ την άλλη την ώρα που εντείνονται οι ανησυχίεσ για την Ισπανία –µε τουσ Α. Μέρκελ και Β. ΣÞιµπλε να φέρονται να ασκούν πιέσεισ στον πρωθυπουργÞ τησ Ισπανίασ Μαριάνο ΡαχÞι προκειµένου να υπαχθεί η χώρα του στον EFSF- τα βλέµµατα στρέφονται Þλο και περισσÞτερο στην Κύπρο. Σύµφωνα µε δηµοσίευµα τησ γερµανικήσ έκδοσησ τησ Wall Street Journal, ενδεχοµένωσ η Κύπροσ να γίνει η τέταρτη χώρα που θα χρειαστεί βοήθεια. Η χώρα επηρεάζεται σε τÞσο µεγάλο βαθµÞ απÞ την ελληνική κρίση, που η προσφυγή στον προσωρινÞ µηχανισµÞ στήριξησ θεωρείται πιθανή ακÞµη και εντÞσ του Ιουνίου, σύµφωνα µε το δηµοσίευµα. Τέλοσ µετά τα τελευταία απογοητευτικά στοιχεία απÞ την αγορά εργασίασ των ΗΠΑ σε συνάρτηση µε την συνεχÞµενη διολίσθηση του Dow Jones ο οποίοσ έχει απολέσει πέραν του 10% τον µήνα Μάιο, η Fed έχει πλέον στα χέρια τησ το τέλειο άλλοθι για να υλοποιήσει τα σχέδια τησ για το QE3. Και µέσα σε Þλα αυτά ΕΚΤ και Γερµανοί, βρισκÞµενοι σε άλλο νοµισµατικÞ ηµισφαίριο. Είναι άξιο απορίασ η αδράνεια Γερµανών και ΕΚΤ σε Þλο αυτÞ το δράµα που περνούν οι πλύστεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ. Μέχρι και την χρήση του Ευρωπαϊκού Ταµείου Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ ή του Ευρωπαϊκού Μηχανισµού ΣταθερÞτητασ
για τον δανεισµÞ των τραπεζών εµφανίζεται αντίθετη η Γερµανία παρά την επιµονή Ολάντ ενώ την ίδια στάση κρατά και για ένα πανευρωπαϊκÞ µηχανισµÞ εγγύησησ των τραπεζικών καταθέσεων. Τεχνικά µπορεί το εβδοµαδιαίο σπάσιµο του 1.25 να έχει ανοίξει διάπλατα τον δρÞµο για τα 1.20 απÞ την άλλη Þµωσ πολύ προσοχή συνιστάται για τον µήνα Ιούνιο αφού θα είναι ένασ µήνασ σηµαντικών εξελίξεων. Ίσωσ πιο σηµαντική εξέλιξη που θα επηρεάσει άµεσα την ισοτιµία να είναι η επÞµενη συνεδρία τησ Fed Þπου σαφέστατα πλέον θα ξεκαθαρίσει ωσ ένα σηµείο η πιθανÞτητα του QE3. Πράγµα που αν τελικά υλοποιηθεί θα δώσει µια προσωρινή ανάσα στο Ευρώ και θα αποτρέψει έστω βραχυπρÞθεσµα την πτώση του στα 1.20. Βεβαίωσ η πτώση του ευρώ στα 1.20 υπÞ τισ περιστάσεισ θα είναι ευλογία αφού θα καταστήσει την καταρρέουσα ευρωζώνη πιο ανταγωνιστική ενώ το συνεχÞµενο ράλι του δολαρίου παρασύρει σε πτώση και τισ τιµέσ των εµπορευµάτων και ειδικά τησ τιµήσ του πετρελαίου πράγµα βέβαια που είναι ευλογία σε τέτοιουσ καιρούσ. Πράγµα που φαίνεται πωσ Þλοι το αντιλαµβάνονται εκτÞσ απÞ τουσ Γερµανούσ που εδώ και τρία χρÞνια κυνηγούν φαντάσµατα πληθωρισµού σε µια Ευρώπη που έχει µετατραπεί σε ζÞµπι.
¶·Ú¤Ï˘Û·Ó Ã∞∫ Î·È Ã∞ Βουτιά πέραν του 9% πραγµατοποίησε χθεσ ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ του κυπριακού Χρηµατιστηρίου, υποχωρώντασ σε νέο ιστορικÞ χαµηλÞ επίπεδο, λÞγω των εντυπωσιακών ζηµιών των τραπεζικών µετοχών Κύπρου και Λαϊκήσ, οι οποίεσ ανήλθαν στο 12,91% και 7,22%, αντίστοιχα. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ κατέγραψε στην πρώτη συνάντηση τησ εβδοµάδασ βαριέσ απώλειεσ σε ποσοστÞ 9,61% και έκλεισε στισ 122,78 µονάδεσ, τιµή που αποτελεί νέα ιστορική χαµηλή. Η αξία των συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 669.060 ευρώ. Μεγάλη πτώση τησ τάξησ του 8,93% σηµείωσε ο ∆είκτησ FTSE/CySE 20, ο οποίοσ έκλεισε στισ 46,49 µονάδεσ. Το µεγαλύτερο αγοραστικÞ ενδιαφέρον προσέλκυσε η µετοχή τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µε 426.007 ευρώ (πτώση 12,91% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,236 ευρώ). Ακολούθησαν οι τίτλοι τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ µε 100.507 ευρώ (πτώση 7,22% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,077 ευρώ), τησ ∆ήµητρα
Επενδυτική µε 85.356 ευρώ (άνοδοσ 0,5% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,176 ευρώ), τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε 28.254 ευρώ (πτώση 2,76% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,176 ευρώ) και τησ OC Options Choice µε 20.000 ευρώ (χωρίσ µεταβολή - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,010 ευρώ). Την ίδια ώρα χωρίσ αναχώµατα συνεχίστηκε η διολίσθηση µετοχών και δεικτών στο Χρηµατιστήριο τησ Αθήνασ, µε την ελληνική αγορά να παραµένει απÞλυτα εσωστρεφήσ και εγκλωβισµένη στο κλίµα αβεβαιÞτητασ που συντηρεί η προεκλογική ειδησεογραφία, στην πορεία προσ τισ εκλογέσ τησ 17ησ Ιουνίου. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ κινούµενοσ πτωτικά σε Þλη σχεδÞν τη διάρκεια των συναλλαγών, «έγραψε» νέο ενδοσυνεδριακÞ χαµηλÞ 22 ετών στισ 471,35 µονάδεσ, µε απώλειεσ έωσ και 6,09%. ΑπÞ τη σύνθεσή του ΅(Þπωσ και στη σύνθεση του FTSE20) τισ µεγαλύτερεσ πιέσεισ δέχθηκαν οι µετοχέσ των Eurobank, TT και Τρ. Κύπρου.
¶ÚÔ‚ÏËÌ·Ù›˙Ô˘Ó ÔÈ ÎÏÔ¤˜ ÌÂÙ¿ÏÏˆÓ Την ανάγκη λήψησ µέτρων για τη µείωση τησ κλοπήσ και εµπορίασ µετάλλων καθώσ και το νοµοθετικÞ πλαίσιο που καλύπτει την αγοραπωλησία µετάλλων απÞ ιδιωτικούσ φορείσ, συζήτησε η Επιτροπή Εµπορίου τησ Βουλήσ. Ο βουλευτήσ του ∆ΗΣΥ Κυριάκοσ Χατζηγιάννησ είπε Þτι χιλιάδεσ συµπολίτεσ µασ ένεκα τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ καταλήγουν στο να πωλούν και σε πολλέσ περιπτώσεισ να ξεπουλούν πολύτιµα χρυσαφικά, µέταλλα ή κοσµήµατα που έχουν, µε αποτέλεσµα να γίνονται έρµαια εκµετάλλευσησ. Ο κ. Χατζηγιάννησ ανέφερε επίσησ Þτι η εµπορία παλιών µετάλλων έχει πάρει τεράστιεσ διαστάσεισ αφού, Þπωσ σηµείωσε, γίνονται και κλοπέσ σε πολλέσ περιπτώσεισ. Σε δηλώσεισ του, ο βουλευτήσ του ∆ΗΚΟ Αγγελοσ ΒÞτσησ είπε “εντοπίσαµε την έλλειψη νοµοθεσίασ που να διέπει αυτέσ τισ αγοραπωλησίεσ, να υπάρχει έλεγχοσ κατά πÞσον αυτέσ έχουν να κάνουν µε τισ κλοπέσ που ολοένα και πληθαίνουν και το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου έχει δεσµευθεί Þτι έχει ήδη στείλει στη Γενική Εισαγγελία προσ τελική επεξεργασία ειδική νοµοθεσία, που θα διέπει τουσ τρÞπουσ που θα γίνεται η ανταλλαγή αυτών των πολύτιµων µετάλλων”. Με αυτÞν τον τρÞπο, είπε, ελπίζει το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου Þτι θα υπάρχει ένασ έλεγχοσ στα καταστήµατα που ανοίγουν κάθε µέρα για να αγοράζουν και να πωλούν αυτά τα πολύτιµα µέταλλα. «Η Επιτροπή έχει πει Þτι αν στισ επÞµενεσ δεκαπέντε µέρεσ δεν έχει ενώπιον τησ συγκεκριµένη νοµοθεσία, θα προβεί η ίδια στην κατάθεση πρÞτασησ νÞµου για να επιλύσει αυτÞ το πρÞβληµα, ιδιαίτερα πριν την καλοκαιρινή περίοδο, που Þλοι γνωρίζουµε Þτι οι κλοπέσ ολοένα κι έχουν αυξηµένη επίδοση», συµπλήρωσε.
6 IOYNIOY, 2012
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∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘
Είναι δεδοµένο Þτι το φορολογικÞ µασ σύστηµα είναι το κύριο προσÞν τησ Κύπρου στην προσέλκυση ξένων επενδυτών και αγοραστών κατοικιών. Ο φÞροσ κληρονοµιάσ έχει καταργηθεί στην Κύπρο και έτσι αυτÞσ ο απεχθήσ φÞροσ που έρχεται να επιβληθεί στην χειρÞτερη στιγµή µιασ οικογένειασ, αναβάθµισε και την φορολογική ελκυστικÞτητα τησ Κύπρου. Μια απÞ τισ προσεγγίσεισ στην διάθεση ακινήτων είναι και η χρήση του φÞρου αυτού (κληρονοµιάσ) προσ ξένουσ αγοραστέσ, ιδιαίτερα Þταν πρÞκειται για Βρετανούσ. Η επεξήγηση Þµωσ αυτού του φÞρου, δεν είναι και τÞσο εύκολη Þσο φαίνεται αρχικά. Για να ξεκινήσει κάποιοσ να µελετά αυτÞ το ενδεχÞµενο τησ αποφυγήσ πληρωµήσ του φÞρου κληρονοµιάσ (ξένοσ αγοραστήσ) θα πρέπει κατ’ αρχή να υπάρχει η πρÞνοια διακρατικήσ συµφωνίασ για διπλή φορολογία. Επειδή Þµωσ µασ ενδιαφέρει ιδιαίτερα η Βρετανική αγορά, ο ΦÞροσ Εισοδήµατοσ τησ Βρετανίασ είναι εκείνοσ που αποφασίζει εάν ένα άτοµο (ΒρετανÞσ) υπÞκειται σε φÞρο κληρονοµιάσ (περιλαµβανοµένησ και τησ περιουσίασ του στην Κύπρο) ή Þχι. Η φορολογία αυτή επιβάλλεται σε καθαρή περιουσία µεγαλύτερη απÞ 325.000 λίρεσ ανά άτοµο, ή 650.000 ευρώ για τον/την σύζυγο. Πέραν Þµωσ αυτού, η φορολογία επιβάλλεται σε ποσοστÞ 40%, ποσοστÞ πάρα πολύ ψηλÞ και ιδιαίτερα µεγάλο για τα ψηλά εισοδηµατικά στρώµατα. Εάν λάβει κάποιοσ υπÞψη Þτι µια κατοικία στην Βρετανία είναι αξίασ κατά µέσο Þρο 1 εκ. λίρεσ, είναι κατανοητÞ Þτι µÞνο η κατοικία του αποθανÞντα ίσωσ να µην φορολογηθεί. Βρετανοί οι οποίοι κατοικούν µÞνιµα στην Κύπρο και οι κληρονÞµοι τουσ επικαλούνται Þτι ο αποθανών είχε επιλέξει κατ’ επιλογή την Κύπρο ωσ µÞνιµη του κατοικία (domicile by choice) για να αποφύγουν την πληρωµή του φÞρου κληρονοµιάσ στην Βρετανία, θα πρέπει να το αποδείξουν Þτι ο αποβιώσασ εγκατέλειψε την χώρα του για πάντα και Þτι δεν είχε σκοπÞ να επιστρέψει στην Βρετανία. Χρειάζεται ασφαλώσ εξειδικευµένη συµβουλή είτε απÞ διεθνείσ ελεγκτέσ και/ή απÞ εξειδικευµένουσ τοµείσ διαχείρισησ πλούτου (Wealth Management). ∆υστυχώσ δεν υπάρχουν ξεκάθαρα δεδοµένα και ο ΒρετανικÞσ ΦÞροσ Εισοδήµατοσ θα αποφασίσει στην κατάλληλη στιγµή. ΑπÞ τισ διάφορεσ µέχρι σήµερα αποφάσεισ του Βρετανικού ΦÞρου Εισοδήµατοσ καταγράφουµε τα ακÞλουθα ενδεικτικά στοιχεία: ΠÞσα χρÞνια ζει στην Κύπρο ο αποβιώσασ;, Ζούσε στην Κύπρο µαζί η γυναίκα του/παιδιά του (ιδιαίτερα εάν τα παιδιά είναι ανήλικα);, ΠÞσεσ φορέσ επισκέπτονταν την Βρετανία, για πÞση περίοδο ανά επίσκεψη και για ποιο λÞγο;, ∆ιατηρεί καταθέσεισ, µετοχέσ, κατοικία στην Βρετανία, ή τα µετέφερε και τα επένδυσε στην Κύπρο;, Που εργάζεται και για πÞσα χρÞνια (στην Κύπρο), εάν εργάζεται και η γυναίκα του;, Εάν έχει ανήλικα παιδιά, αυτά φοιτούν σε Κυπριακά (έστω ΑγγλÞφωνα) σχολεία;, Έχει αλλάξει το διαβατήριο του σε ΚυπριακÞ και έχει αποκτήσει Κυπριακή άδεια οδηγού;, Οι πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ του είναι Κυπριακέσ;, Ανήκει σε σωµατεία και συνδέσµουσ στο Η.Β.;, Έχει κάνει διευθετήσεισ για την ταφή του στην Κύπρο – αγÞρασε µήπωσ τάφο εδώ;, Εάν παντρεύτηκε πρÞσφατα, που έγινε ο γάµοσ και τι εθνικÞτητασ είναι η/ο σύζυγοσ;, Κλπ κλπ Η Þλη προσπάθεια των κληρονÞµων και/ή του αποθανÞντοσ προ θανάτου είναι να προετοιµαστούν να πείσουν τισ Βρετανικέσ Αρχέσ Þτι η πρÞθεση του αποθανÞντοσ ήταν να µείνει µÞνιµα πλέον στην Κύπρο και επί µÞνιµησ βάσησ και Þτι ουδέποτε είχε στην σκέψη του την επιστροφή του στην Βρετανία. Ο ΒρετανικÞσ ΦÞροσ Εισοδήµατοσ θα εξετάσει µια ελάχιστη περίοδο των τελευταίων 3 ετών και ασφαλώσ εισ µία προσπάθεια να φορολογήσει το 40%, θα δυσκολέψει τισ θέσεισ του φορολογούµενου. Σε πρÞσφατη απÞφαση του ΦÞρου, ο ΒρετανÞσ ο οποίοσ κατοικούσε στην ΝÞτιο Αφρική αλλά διατηρούσε τουσ λογαριασµούσ του στην Βρετανία, επισκεπτÞταν τακτικά την Βρετανία και διατηρούσε την εγγραφή του σε Βρετανικά σωµατεία/κλαµπσ, αποφάσισε Þτι παρÞλο που ζούσε στην Ν. Αφρική για τα τελευταία 20 χρÞνια, ουδέποτε διέκοψε τουσ δεσµούσ του µε την αρχική του πατρίδα και οι πράξεισ του ερµηνεύθηκαν Þτι νοερά ο αποθανών ήθελε να επιστρέψει στην Βρετανία σε κάποιο στάδιο. Γίνεται λοιπÞν αντιληπτÞ Þτι δεν είναι εύκολη υπÞθεση και χρειάζεται φορολογικÞσ σχεδιασµÞσ. Εµείσ το αναφέρουµε διÞτι µασ ενδιαφέρει στο να υποδείξουµε σε ξένουσ αγοραστέσ Þτι έχουµε και αυτÞ το πλεονέκτηµα εάν κατοικεί κάποιοσ µÞνιµα στην Κύπρο, αλλά και προσφέροντασ και κάποια βασική συµβουλή που θα τουσ κεντρίσει το ενδιαφέρον για να απευθυνθούν σε ειδικούσ. Έναυσµα αυτού του άρθρου ήταν η εµπειρία µασ µε ένα ζευγάρι Þπου ο σύζυγοσ ήταν σαφώσ
µεγαλύτεροσ σε ηλικία απÞ την σύζυγο (γύρω στα 25 χρÞνια διαφορά). Η σύζυγοσ ήταν αρνητική στην αγορά µÞνιµησ κατοικίασ στην Κύπρο και επέµενε για την Ισπανία απÞ Þπου κατάγεται η ίδια. Στα πολλά, “πετάξαµε” στο τραπέζι και το πιθανÞ αφορολÞγητο στον φÞρο κληρονοµιάσ. Η στάση τησ άλλαξε αµέσωσ και η πράξη έκλεισε!! Άρα κάνετε χρήσεισ Þλων των Κυπριακών κινήτρων. Παροµοίωσ, Βρετανικέσ συντάξεισ φορολογούνται στην Κύπρο προσ 4?% ενώ στην Βρετανία προσ 22%. ΜÞνο µε την διαφορά τησ φορολογίασ ίσωσ να συµφέρει σε ένα ΒρετανÞ να ζει στην Κύπρο. Για να ισχύσει Þµωσ αυτή η µειωµένη φορολογία θα πρέπει ο συνταξιούχοσ να είναι µÞνιµοσ κάτοικοσ Κύπρου. ∆ηλαδή να ζει στην Κύπρο τουλάχιστον 183 ηµέρεσ τον χρÞνο. Στουσ δύσκολουσ λοιπÞν αυτούσ καιρούσ τα πιο πάνω και άλλα φορολογικά κίνητρα (ίδε το τελευταίο για τα εµπιστεύµατα) είναι ορισµένα απÞ τα πολλά βασικά στοιχεία
που θα πρέπει να γνωρίζουν οι πωλητέσ ακινήτων. Ωσ εκ τούτου καλÞ θα ήταν το κάθε Γραφείο/ επιχειρηµατίασ ανάπτυξησ, να διδάξει τα πιο πάνω µε την βοήθεια του ελεγκτή του και ίσωσ να δίδεται και ένα έντυπο σε αµφιταλαντευÞµενουσ αγοραστέσ και Þχι µÞνο Βρετανούσ αλλά και άλλουσ π.χ. Ρώσουσ. Ασφαλώσ τα κίνητρα αγοράσ κατοικίασ µε Φ.Π.Α. που προνοούν µηδέν µεταβιβαστικά ή 50% εκεί που δεν υπάρχει Φ.Π.Α. (εάν η πώληση/το πωλητήριο έγγραφο κατατεθεί µέχρι την 31.12.2012) είναι σηµαντικÞ πρÞσθετο στοιχείο πίεσησ, Þπωσ είναι και η µειωµένη φορολογία ακινήτων σε τÞκουσ και η πρÞσφατη διαφοροποίηση του νÞµου για τουσ ξένουσ (οποιασδήποτε χώρασ) µε 5% Φ.Π.Α. (αφορά Þµωσ µÞνιµουσ κατοίκουσ) είναι και αυτÞ ένα συν, ενώ το πιο πάνω που περιλαµβάνει τώρα και µισθώσεισ είναι ιδιαίτερα σηµαντικÞ για τισ µαρίνεσ (που είναι µισθώσεισ) και άλλα. ΧρÞνοσ για εκπαίδευση λοιπÞν για το καλÞ τησ επιχείρησησ σασ.
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RYANAIR O «ÂÈÚ·Ù‹˜» ÙˆÓ ·Èı¤ÚˆÓ fiÁÔ ÁÈ· ·ÎfiÌ fiÌ· ÌÂÚÈÎÔ‡˜ «Â·Ú¯ÈÒÙ˜» √È ÁÓˆÚ›˙ÔÓÙ˜ ÙËÓ Â˘Úˆ·˚΋ ·ÁÔÚ¿ ·ÂÚÔÌÂÙ·ÊÔÚÒÓ Î¿ÓÔ˘Ó ÏfiÁ Ô˘ È¿ÛÙËÎ·Ó ÛÙ· ‰›¯Ù˘· ÙÔ˘ ·ÓÔ‡ÚÁÔ˘ πÚÏ·Ó‰Ô‡ È‰Ú˘Ù‹ Ù˘ Ryanair Î. ª¿ÈÎÏ √’§›ÚÈ Την άγρια γεύση τησ αγοράσ των αεροπορικών εταιρειών χαµηλού κÞστουσ και ειδικÞτερα τησ Ryanair γνώρισαν πριν απÞ λίγεσ ηµέρεσ οι ¶ËÁ‹: To ¶ÚÒÙÔ £¤Ì· τοπικοί παράγοντεσ τησ ΡÞδου και τησ Κω, Þταν έκπληκτοι πληροφορήθηκαν Þτι η εταιρεία σταµατά πάνω απÞ 40 πτήσεισ απÞ ευρωπαϊκέσ πÞλεισ προσ τα δύο νησιά, στισ αρχέσ Οκτωβρίου, µε αποτέλεσµα την απώλεια περισσÞτερων απÞ 80.000 επισκεπτών. Πώσ Þµωσ φτάσαµε απÞ τισ διθυραµβικέσ ανακοινώσεισ του 2011, του τÞτε ∆ωδεκανήσιου Έλληνα υφυπουργού Τουρισµού κ. Γιώργου Νικητιάδη και των άλλων παραγÞντων των δύο νησιών περί αύξησησ του τουριστικού ρεύµατοσ και επιµήκυνσησ τησ σεζÞν, σε αυτÞ το τραγικÞ αποτέλεσµα; Οι γνωρίζοντεσ την ευρωπαϊκή αγορά αεροµεταφορών κάνουν λÞγο για ακÞµα µερικούσ «επαρχιώτεσ» που πιάστηκαν στα δίχτυα του πανούργου Ιρλανδού ιδρυτή τησ Ryanair κ. Μάικλ Ο’Λίρι. Η εταιρεία του, η οποία σε δέκα µÞλισ χρÞνια κατάφερε να γίνει η µεγαλύτερη αεροπορική τησ Ευρώπησ, µÞνο το 2011 µετέφερε πάνω απÞ 70.000.000 επιβάτεσ. Η επιχειρηµατική τακτική που ακολουθεί η συγκεκριµένη εταιρεία κάθε άλλο παρά συµβαδίζει µε τισ αντίστοιχεσ πρακτικέσ των περισσÞτερων αεροπορικών εταιρειών τησ Ευρώπησ. Ùπωσ υποστηρίζουν δήµαρχοι που έχουν συνεργαστεί µε τη συγκεκριµένη εταιρεία, «η Ryanair στην ουσία απαιτεί σχεδÞν εκβιαστικά απÞ τουσ °. ¶∞¶∞™∆∞ºπ¢∞
τοπικούσ φορείσ να επιδοτήσουν τισ πτήσεισ τησ και αν τύχει και αρνηθούν οι προσεγγίσεισ των αεροσκαφών τησ σταµατούν, τινάζοντασ στον αέρα τισ τοπικέσ οικονοµίεσ». Κάπωσ έτσι έγινε και στην Κω, Þπου τρεισ ηµέρεσ µετά τισ εκλογέσ, στισ 9 Μαΐου, η Ryanair έστειλε επιστολή στον δήµαρχο του νησιού µέσω τησ οποίασ ζητούσε να κατατεθούν στον λογαριασµÞ τησ εντÞσ τησ ηµέρασ 180.000 ευρώ, αλλιώσ θα µαταίωνε τισ πτήσεισ προσ το νησί έναν µήνα νωρίτερα απÞ την προγραµµατισµένη διακοπή τουσ. Λίγεσ ηµέρεσ αργÞτερα, και ενώ οι παράγοντεσ του νησιού προσπαθούσαν να επικοινωνήσουν µε την εταιρεία, ο εκπρÞσωπÞσ τησ προέβη σε µια ανακοίνωση στην οποία, ούτε λίγο ούτε πολύ, αναφερÞταν Þτι ο δήµαρχοσ του νησιού ευθύνεται για το γεγονÞσ Þτι η εταιρεία διακÞπτει πρÞωρα τα 11 δροµολÞγιά τησ προσ το νησί.
¶Ò˜ Ù· ηٷʤÚÓÂÈ Οµωσ τι ακριβώσ κάνει η συγκεκριµένη εταιρεία και καταφέρνει να είναι κερδοφÞρα τη στιγµή που Þλοι οι αεροµεταφορείσ στην Ευρώπη εµφανίζουν ζηµίεσ εξαιτίασ τησ µεγάλησ αύξησησ των αεροπορικών καυσίµων τουσ τελευταίουσ µήνεσ; Γνώστεσ τησ αγοράσ των αεροµεταφορών εξηγούν Þτι η συγκεκριµένη εταιρεία διαθέτει ένα συγκροτηµένο και πολυπληθέσ γραφείο µάρκετινγκ το οποίο εντοπίζει τα αεροδρÞµια-στÞχουσ. Απαραίτητη προϋπÞθεση είναι τα συγκεκριµένα αεροδρÞµια να µη χρεώνουν στην εταιρεία κανένα ή, στη χειρÞτερη περίπτωση, ελάχιστα τέλη κατά την προσγείωση και απογείωση των αεροσκαφών τησ. Εν συνεχεία το τµήµα µάρκετινγκ τησ εταιρείασ επισκέπτεται την περιοχή και διοργανώνει συναντήσεισ µε τοπικούσ φορείσ (ξενοδÞχουσ, δηµάρχουσ, τοπικά επιµελητήρια κ.ά.), Þπου τουσ αναφέρει Þτι είναι διατεθειµένη να ανοίξει άµεσα την αγορά εγκαινιάζοντασ δεκάδεσ πτήσεισ σε εβδοµαδιαία βάση απÞ διάφορεσ πÞλεισ τησ Ευρώπησ. Παράλληλα, ζητά απÞ τουσ τοπικούσ φορείσ µια µικρή χρηµατική συµµετοχή για να διαφηµιστεί η περιοχή µέσω τησ ιστοσελίδασ τησ. Η συγκεκριµένη συµφωνία που υπογράφουν οι τοπικοί φορείσ µε τη Ryanair έχει αυστηρέσ ρήτρεσ εµπιστευτικÞτητασ, αφού η διαρροή τησ θα είχε σηµαντικέσ νοµικέσ επιπτώσεισ για την εταιρεία απÞ τισ αρχέσ ανταγωνισµού τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ, εφÞσον απÞ την κοινοτική νοµοθεσία απαγορεύεται αυστηρά η επιδÞτηση αεροπορικών δροµολογίων. Παράλληλα, στη συµφωνία αυτή απαιτεί απÞ το αεροδρÞµιο στο οποίο υπενθυµίζεται Þτι δεν πληρώνει ούτε ένα ευρώ- να εξυπηρετούνται κατά προτεραιÞτητα τα αεροσκάφη τησ, έτσι ώστε να µην υπερβαίνει τα 30 λεπτά τησ ώρασ το χρονικÞ διάστηµα που καθένα απÞ αυτά βρίσκεται στο έδαφοσ και αποβιβάζει / επιβιβάζει επιβάτεσ.
∑ËÙ¿ ÂÈϤÔÓ ¯Ú‹Ì·Ù· Στη συνέχεια ρίχνει στην αγορά δεκάδεσ χιλιάδεσ θέσεισ προσ τον συγκεκριµένο προορισµÞ µε εισιτήρια κάτω του κÞστουσ, που φτάνουν ακÞµα και τα 9 ευρώ ανά πτήση. Επειτα απÞ λίγουσ µήνεσ, και Þταν έχει δηµιουργηθεί η κρίσιµη µάζα επισκεπτών, το τµήµα µάρκετινγκ τησ Ryanair στέλνει επιστολέσ στουσ τοπικούσ φορείσ και τουσ ζητά επιπλέον χρήµατα για τη δήθεν προβολή του προορισµού (εξυπακούεται Þτι καµία διαφηµιστική προβολή δεν γίνεται απÞ την ιστοσελίδα τησ εταιρείασ, αλλά απλώσ αναφέρεται ο προορισµÞσ Þπου πετά ανάµεσα σε εκατοντάδεσ άλλουσ). Οι τοπικοί φορείσ συνήθωσ στην αρχή ενδίδουν, φοβούµενοι τισ αντιδράσεισ απÞ τισ τοπικέσ κοινωνίεσ, οι οποίεσ µέσω των πτήσεων τησ συγκεκριµένησ εταιρείασ βλέπουν την περιοχή τουσ να ζωντανεύει τουριστικά. Λίγουσ µήνεσ αργÞτερα οι εκπρÞσωποι τησ Ryanair επανέρχονται και ζητούν µεγαλύτερα πÞσα απÞ τουσ τοπικούσ φορείσ, κάτι που έχει ωσ αποτέλεσµα -αν δεχθούν- να επιδοτούν εξ ολοκλήρου τα εισιτήρια των επιβατών που επισκέπτονται την περιοχή τουσ. Αν Þµωσ οι εκπρÞσωποι των τοπικών φορέων δεν υποκύψουν στισ ορέξεισ του Ο’Λίρι και των συνεργατών του, η εταιρεία διακÞπτει χωρίσ προειδοποίηση τα δροµολÞγια έχοντασ αποκοµίσει ένα σεβαστÞ κέρδοσ. Η Ryanair έχει ήδη επιλέξει τουσ επÞµενουσ στÞχουσ τησ και εξορµά. ΑυτÞ έγινε, Þπωσ αναφέρουν παράγοντεσ του τουρισµού, και στην περίπτωση τησ Κω και τησ ΡÞδου. Η εταιρεία σταµατά ή µειώνει δραµατικά τα δροµολÞγιά τησ και παράλληλα εγκαινιάζει δεκάδεσ νέα στουσ επÞµενουσ προορισµούσ-στÞχουσ που δέχθηκαν τουσ Þρουσ τησ Þπωσ τα Χανιά, η Θεσσαλονίκη και η Κέρκυρα. «Οταν οι φορείσ των πÞλεων που δέχτηκαν τη µυστική συµφωνία µε τη Ryanair δεν θα µπορούν να εκπληρώσουν τισ αυξανÞµενεσ απαιτήσεισ τησ εταιρείασ, θα ακολουθήσουν Tη µοίρα των προηγούµενων προορισµών», έλεγαν χαρακτηριστικά µερικοί απÞ τουσ πρωτεργάτεσ τησ συµφωνίασ στα ∆ωδεκάνησα. Η Ryanair είχε ανακοινώσει 17 νέα δροµολÞγια προσ Κω, ΡÞδο, ΒÞλο και Θεσσαλονίκη, απÞ τον Απρίλιο του 2010. Τα δροµολÞγια που προσφέρει η αεροπορική εταιρεία χαµηλού κÞστουσ απÞ και προσ την Ελλάδα φθάνουν τα 30.
∞‡ÍËÛË ÎÂÚ‰ÒÓ Κατά 25% αυξήθηκαν τα καθαρά κέρδη τησ Ryanair, τησ µεγαλύτερησ αεροπορικήσ εταιρείασ χαµηλού κÞστουσ στην Ευρώπη. Η εταιρεία ωστÞσο προβλέπει Þτι τα κέρδη θα υποχωρήσουν στη διάρκεια τησ τρέχουσασ χρήσησ, καθώσ προσπαθεί να αυξήσει τουσ δασµούσ ώστε να εξισορροπήσει το υψηλÞτερο κÞστοσ των καυσίµων. Τα καθαρά κέρδη αυξήθηκαν στα 502,6 εκ. ευρώ στο διάστηµα των 12 µηνών µέχρι τισ 31 Μαρτίου απÞ τα 400,7 εκ. ευρώ πριν απÞ ένα χρÞνο. Το ποσÞ µπορεί να υποχωρήσει µεταξύ των 400-440 εκ. ευρώ φέτοσ, ανακοίνωσε η εταιρεία.
¶¿ÊÔ˜ Η Ryanair εν τω µεταξύ απÞ τον Απρίλιο του 2012 έχει ωσ την 50ή βάση τησ (και πρώτη στην Κύπρο) την Πάφο, µε δύο αεροσκάφη και 14 δροµολÞγια και υπολογίζεται να µεταφέ-
ρει αρχικά περισσÞτερουσ απÞ 600.000 επιβάτεσ το χρÞνο. Η 50ή αεροπορική βάση τησ εταιρείασ θα εξυπηρετεί περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 80 εβδοµαδιαίεσ πτήσεισ και θα συντηρεί περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 600 θέσεισ εργασίασ. Σύµφωνα µε τουσ αρµÞδιουσ φορείσ τησ Πάφου η Ryanair επένδυσε πάνω απÞ 140 εκ. δολάρια στο ΑεροδρÞµιο Πάφου Οι 14 προορισµοί που πετά απÞ Πάφο είναι: Χανιά, Frankfurt Hahn (πÞλη τησ πρώην Αν. Γερµανίασ), Kaunas, Κρακοβία, Λονδίνο, Memmingen, Μιλάνο, Ùσλο, Πάτρα, Πίζα, Ρώµη, ΣτοκχÞλµη, Θεσσαλονίκη και Treviso.
§¿Úӷη Η Ryanair ξεκίνησε τισ πρώτεσ πτήσεισ τησ απÞ Κύπρο στισ 3 Νοεµβρίου 2010, αρχικά µε τα δροµολÞγια ΜπολÞνια, Ντίσελντοφ, ενώ αργÞτερα προστέθηκαν και τα δροµολÞγια απÞ Λάρνακα προσ, Βρυξέλλεσ και Βαρκελώνη. Πολιτική τησ εταιρείασ είναι κάθε φορά που ξεκινά ένα δροµολÞγιο να προσφέρει αρκετέσ χιλιάδεσ θέσεισ σε τιµέσ που ξεκινούν απÞ 7 ευρώ.
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¢È·ÎÔ¤˜… ÂÍÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÒÓÙ·˜ ¯Ú‹Ì·Ù· Η οικονοµική κρίση κάθε άλλο παρά ελληνική είναι. Έχει βαθιέσ ρίζεσ παγκÞσµιεσ και Þχι µÞνο Ευρωπαϊκέσ. Η δηµοφιλέστερη µηχανή αναζήτησησ και σύγκρισησ τιµών www.trivago.gr θέλοντασ να ερευνήσει κατά πÞσο η οικονοµική κρίση έχει επηρεάσει τισ απαιτήσεισ των ταξιδιωτών Þταν επιλέγουν ξενοδοχεία, διεξήγαγε µια online έρευνα στισ µεγαλύτερεσ πλατφÞρµεσ τησ και τα αποτελέσµατα καταδεικνύουν επακριβώσ την οικονοµική κατάσταση των ταξιδιωτών παγκοσµίωσ. Οι Γερµανοί πολύ ευχαρίστωσ θα εγκατέλειπαν τη ζωντανή µουσική και τη διασκέδαση για να εξοικονοµήσουν χρήµατα σε ποσοστÞ 30 %, ενώ οι πιο γλεντζέδεσ Ισπανοί, Ιταλοί, Έλληνεσ και Πορτογάλοι είναι πιο διστακτικοί στην εγκατάλειψη τησ διασκέδασησ µε ποσοστά 9 %, 13% , 9% και 7% αντίστοιχα. ΑναµενÞµενο εξάλλου, αφού οι µεσογειακοί λαοί έχουν τη διασκέδαση στο αίµα τουσ. Τα νούµερα µιλάνε απÞ µÞνα τουσ Þσον αφορά στο πÞσο εύκολα οι ίδιοι λαοί θα έλεγαν ευχαρίστωσ Þχι στισ αθλητικέσ εγκαταστάσεισ προκειµένου να γλιτώσουν χρήµατα. Οι Έλληνεσ µε ποσοστÞ 31 % ευχαρίστωσ θα έλεγαν ένα ηχηρÞ Þχι στισ αθλητικέσ εγκαταστάσεισ. Οι Ισπανοί προηγούνται µε 37% και λένε “no” στα γυµναστικά έξοδα και µαζί τουσ συµφωνούν και οι Ιταλοί µε ποσοστÞ 27%. Στην ίδια τροχιά και οι απαντήσεισ των Άγγλων ταξιδιωτών σε ποσοστÞ 35% που επιλέγουν να απαρνηθούν για λίγο τη γυµναστική τουσ για να εξοικονοµήσουν χρήµατα. Σε αντίθετη τροχιά οι απαντήσεισ των Γερµανών (16 %) και των Αµερικάνων (17 %) που ένα µικρÞ ποσοστÞ είναι έτοιµο να απαρνηθεί την εύκολη πρÞσβαση σε αθλητικέσ εγκατάστασεισ προκειµένου να γλιτώσει χρήµατα. Φαίνεται παίρνουν πολύ σοβαρά την ελληνική ρύση, νουσ υγιήσ εν σώµατι υγιέσ! Ùσον αφορά στισ ανέσεισ των δωµατίων, φαίνεται πωσ
µÞνο οι Πολωνοί είναι πρÞθυµοι να αποχαιρετήσουν την τηλεÞραση για να κατέβει λίγο η τιµή του δωµατίου σε ποσοστÞ 22 %, ενώ Þλοι οι υπÞλοιποι Ευρωπαίοι κινούνται σε πολύ χαµηλά ποσοστά και δε µπορούν ωσ φαίνεται να αποχωριστούν την τετράγωνη θεά. ΑυτÞ που οι περισσÞτεροι και µε συντριπτικά ποσοστά θα εγκατέλειπαν ευχαρίστωσ είναι το µίνι µπαρ (εδώ οι αριθµοί δεν µιλούν απλά αλλά κραυγάζουν, Αγγλία: 59 %, Ελλάδα: 56 %, Πορτογαλία: 58%, ΗΠΑ: 56%, Ισπανία: 47%, Γαλλία: 45 %, Γερµανία: 39%).
∆· ηχÙÂÚ· ÍÂÓԉԯ›· Ù˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ™‡Ìʈӷ Ì ٷ ÛÙÔȯ›· ηχÙÂÚÔ ÍÂÓÔ‰Ô¯Â›Ô ·Ó·‰Â›¯ıËΠÙÔ Alion Beach Τα καλύτερα ξενοδοχεία τησ Κύπρου µε βάση Þλουσ Þσοι ψήφισαν στη γνωστή ιστοσελίδα www.trivago.gr, σασ παρουσιάζουµε σήµερα. Τα αποτελέσµατα προκύπτουν απÞ τισ αξιολογήσεισ των επισκεπτών που έκαναν κρατήσεισ µέσω του www.booking.com, www.hotels.com και www.travelplanet24.com. Σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία καλύτερο ξενοδοχείο µε βαθµολÞγια 90/100 αναδείχθηκε το Alion Beach στην Αγία Νάπα, ακολουθώντασ σε απÞσταση αναπνοήσ και µε βαθµολογία 89/100, το Four Seasons στη ΛεµεσÞ και το Columbia Beach Resort στο Πισσούρι. ΑπÞ εκεί και πέρα βαθµολογία 88/100 έλαβε το Napa Mermaid στην Αγία Νάπα και το Elysium στην Πάφο, ενώ µε 87/100 αξιολογήθηκαν το Londa Beach στη ΛεµεσÞ, το Grecian Park στον Πρωταρά, το Thalassa Boutique & Spa στην Πάφο και το Amathus Beach στην Πάφο. Στην επαρχία Λάρνακασ καλύτερο ξενοδοχείο αναδείχθηκε το Eleonora µε βαθµολογία µÞλισ 82/100 ενώ στην Λευκωσία το Άστυ µε 86/100 αφήνοντασ πίσω το Hilton Park µε βαθµολογία 82/100.
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√È ÌÈÛÔ› °ÂÚÌ·ÓÔ› ı¤ÏÔ˘Ó ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÂÎÙfi˜ ¢ÚÒ Οι ελληνικέσ εκλογέσ στισ 17 Ιουνίου, οι δεύτερεσ µέσα σε δύο µήνεσ, θεωρείται ευρέωσ ωσ ένα δηµοψήφισµα για το αν η Ελλάδα παραµείνει στη ζώνη του ευρώ ΣχεδÞν το ήµισυ των Γερµανών θέλουν την Ελλάδα να εγκαταλείψει την ευρωζώνη και το ένα τρίτο φοβάται πολύ Þτι η κρίση χρέουσ τησ χώρασ θα µπορούσε να απειλήσει το ευρώ, Þπωσ αποκαλύπτει δηµοσκÞπηση του γερµανικού περιοδικού Stern. Σύµφωνα µε µια έρευνα που διεξήχθη απÞ το ερευνητικÞ ινστιτούτο Forsa µεταξύ 1.001 Γερµανών, το 49% ερωτηθέντων θέλει την Ελλάδα να εγκαταλείψει το ενιαίο νÞµισµα, ενώ 39% επιθυµεί την παραµονή τησ. ΣχεδÞν τα δύο τρίτα θέλουν η Γερµανίδα καγκελάριοσ Άνγκελα Μέρκελ να επιµείνει η Ελλάδα να τηρήσει τα συµφωνη-
À¤Ú Ù˘ ÂÔÙ›·˜ ÙˆÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ Ù¿¯ıËÎÂ Ë ª¤ÚÎÂÏ Υπέρ τησ εποπτείασ των τραπεζών σε κεντρικÞ επίπεδο και κατά τρÞπο ώστε να µην παίζουν τÞσο µεγάλο ρÞλο τα εθνικά συµφέροντα τάχθηκε η Καγκελάριοσ τησ Γερµανίασ Ανγκελα Μέρκελ λίγο πριν απÞ την συνάντησή τησ µε τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ Ζοζέ Μανουέλ ΜπαρÞζο στο Βερολίνο, στο πλαίσιο τησ προετοιµασίασ του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στο τέλοσ του µήνα. ΑπÞ την πλευρά του ο κ. ΜπαρÞζο αναφέρθηκε στην ιδέα τησ ‘’τραπεζικήσ ένωσησ’’ για την Ευρωζώνη, µε γνώµονα την δηµιουργία και ‘’οικονοµικήσ ένωσησ’’. Η Γερµανίδα Καγκελάριοσ επανέλαβε Þτι η δηµοσιονοµική σταθεροποίηση και η ανάπτυξη αποτελούν τισ δύο Þψεισ του ίδιου νοµίσµατοσ και τÞνισε την ανάγκη στισ χώρεσ Þπου υπάρχει πρÞβληµα να δοθεί ώθηση στην ανάπτυξη και να ενισχυθεί η απασχÞληση. Επισήµανε δε Þτι το ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Σύµφωνο είναι ένα πρώτο βήµα στην κατεύθυνση του ελέγχου των ελλειµµά-
™Ù· "ÛηÚÈ¿" Û¯¤‰ÈÔ ÂÍfi‰Ô˘ ∆Ô Û¯¤‰ÈÔ ·˘Ùfi ı· ˘Ô‚ÏËı› ÛÙÔ ∂˘Úˆ·˚Îfi Û˘Ì‚Ô‡ÏÈÔ ÛÙÔ Ù¤ÏÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ ÙÚ¤¯ÔÓÙÔ˜ ÌËÓfi˜ Οι επικεφαλήσ τεσσάρων ευρωπαϊκών θεσµών προετοιµάζουν τισ µέρεσ αυτέσ "συνολικÞ σχέδιο", µε άξονά του την έξοδο τησ ευρωζώνησ απÞ τη 2ετή κρίση, Þπωσ αναφέρουν δηµοσιεύµατα. ΠρÞκεται για τον πρÞεδρο τησ ΕΚΤ Μάριο Ντράγκι, τον πρÞεδρο τησ ΕΕ Χέρµαν βαν Ροµπέι, τον πρÞεδρο τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ Ζοζέ Μανουέλ ΜπαρÞζο και τον πρÞεδρο του Eurogroup Ζαν-Κλοντ Γιούνκερ. "Το σχέδιο αυτÞ θα υποβληθεί στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ συµβούλιο στο τέλοσ του τρέχοντοσ µηνÞσ", γράφει επίσησ η γερµανική εφηµερίδα. Σύµφωνα µε αυτήν, στισ προτάσεισ για την 17µελή ευρωζώνη που εξετάζουν οι ανωτέρω ιθύνοντεσ είναι και : -Η ενίσχυση των εξουσιών των θεσµών τησ ΕΕ, έναντι τησ κατάρτισησ των εθνικών προϋπολογισµών. -Η δηµιουργία πανευρωπαϊκήσ εποπτικήσ Αρχήσ για τισ τράπεζεσ, µε πρωτÞγνωρεσ εξουσίεσ. - Η εναρµÞνιση των εθνικών φορολογικών πολιτικών, σε επίπεδο ευρωπαϊκÞ. Το αυτÞ, προκειµένου περί τησ εξωτερικήσ πολιτικήσ και τησ πολιτικήσ για την ασφάλεια τησ ευρωζώνησ. Τέλοσ, υπάρχει επεξεργασία σειράσ προτάσεων, που άπτονται του τοµέα τησ κοινωνικήσ ασφάλισησ-- αναφέρει πάντα η ίδια κυριακάτικη εφηµερίδα τησ Γερµανίασ.
των, αλλά δεν αρκεί και ζήτησε ‘’περισσÞτερη Ευρώπη’’ και περισσÞτερεσ αρµοδιÞτητεσ ελέγχου για τα θεσµικά Þργανα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ. ‘’Ο κÞσµοσ θέλει να γνωρίζει πωσ φανταζÞµαστε την πολιτική Ενωση, η οποία συνοδεύει την Νοµισµατική Ενωση’’, σηµείωσε η κ. Μέρκελ, για να υπογραµµίσει ο κ. ΜπαρÞζο την σηµασία λήψησ άµεσων µέτρων βραχυπρÞθεσµησ προοπτικήσ, τα οποία θα δείξουν τÞσο στουσ πολίτεσ Þσο και στισ αγορέσ Þτι ‘’είµαστε διατεθειµένοι να κάνουµε Þ,τι χρειάζεται για να διασφαλίσουµε την σταθερÞτητα του ευρώ’’. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ΚοµισιÞν πάντωσ συµφώνησε µε την Καγκελάριο Þτι ‘’για να έχουµε ανάπτυξη, χρειαζÞµαστε σταθερή δηµοσιονοµική κατάσταση και ανταγωνιστικÞτητα’’, ενώ έκανε λÞγο και για ‘’στοχευµένεσ επενδύσεισ’’. Αυτέσ, σηµείωσε, θα είναι οι κεντρικέσ παράµετροι των πρωτοβουλιών που θα αναλάβει προσεχώσ η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή.
EÓÙ›ÓÔÓÙ·È ÔÈ ÁÂÚÌ·ÓÈΤ˜ ȤÛÂȘ Εντονεσ γερµανικέσ πιέσεισ προκειµένου να προσφύγει στον µηχανισµÞ διάσωσησ δέχεται η Ισπανία η οποία απÞ την πλευρά τησ ανθίσταται σε ένα τέτοιο ενδεχÞµενο. Εν τω µεταξύ, δραµατικÞ µήνυµα Þτι οι διεθνείσ χρηµαταγορέσ αρχίζουν να κλείνουν τη στρÞφιγγα προσ την τέταρτη µεγαλύτερη οικονοµία τησ ευρωζώνησ, απηύθυνε ο ΙσπανÞσ υπουργÞσ Προϋπολογισµού και ∆ηµοσίασ ∆ιοίκησησ Κριστοµπάλ ΜοντÞρο. Ο Κριστοµπάλ ΜοντÞρο περιέγραψε την πίεση που υφίσταται πλέον η οικονοµία τησ χώρασ του, κατά τη διάρκεια συνέντευξησσ Þπου υπογράµµισε τισ συνέπειεσ που έχει η κρίση του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ στον κρατικÞ δανεισµÞ, λέγοντασ ευθέωσ Þτι µε τα σηµερινά κÞστη (διεθνούσ δανεισµού) οι αγορέσ έχουν ουσιαστικά «κλείσει» για την Ισπανία. «Αυτή τη στιγµή έχουµε πρÞβληµα πρÞσβασησ στισ αγορέσ, ενώ έχουµε ανάγκη χρηµατοδÞτησησ του χρέουσ µασ». Το spread διακράτησησ του δεκαετούσ ισπανικού οµολÞγου έναντι του γερµανικού έφθασε τισ 548 µονάδεσ βάσησ την Παρασκευή, παραδιδÞµενο στουσ φÞβουσ Þτι το εύθραυστο ισπανικÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα, σε συνδυασµÞ µε το άχθοσ του χρέουσ, θα οδηγήσουν τελικά την χώρα σε λύση τύπου - Ελλάδασ. Αφιστάµενοσ απÞ την µέχρι τώρα κυβερνητική γραµµή, σύµφωνα µε την οποία, η Ισπανία επρÞκειτο να καλύψει µε εθνικά κεφάλαια την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση των τραπεζών τησ, ο ΜοντÞρο σηµείωσε Þτι οι τράπεζεσ τησ χώρασ θα πρέπει να ανακεφαλαιοποιηθούν µέσω των ευρωπαϊκών µηχανισµών.
µένα µέτρα λιτÞτητασ παρά την αυξανÞµενη κριτική αυτήσ τησ τακτικήσ σε άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ, Þπωσ η Γαλλία. Oι ελληνικέσ εκλογέσ στισ 17 Ιουνίου, οι δεύτερεσ µέσα σε δύο µήνεσ, θεωρείται ευρέωσ ωσ ένα δηµοψήφισµα για το αν η Ελλάδα παραµείνει στη ζώνη του ευρώ και συνεχίσει τισ επώδυνεσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ, ή θα την εγκαταλείψει για να επιστρέψει στο παλαιÞ νÞµισµα τησ δραχµήσ. Στην έρευνα σχεδÞν τα δύο τρίτα των Γερµανών εξέφρασαν την έλλειψη κατανÞησησ για τουσ Έλληνεσ που θέλουν να ψηφίσουν τα αντιµνηµονιακά κÞµµατα. Το ένα τρίτο δήλωσε Þτι θα κάνει δεύτερεσ σκέψεισ σχετικά µε το αν θα περάσει τισ διακοπέσ του στην Ελλάδα υπÞ τισ παρούσεσ συνθήκεσ.
G7: ∫ÔÈÓ‹ ‰Ú¿ÛË ÁÈ· ∂ÏÏ¿‰· – πÛ·Ó›· Οι υπουργοί Οικονοµικών τησ οµάδασ των Επτά βιοµηχανοποιηµένων οικονοµιών (G7) συµφώνησαν κατά την χθεσινή τουσ τηλεδιάσκεψη να εργαστούν απÞ κοινού για να αντιµετωπίσουν τα προβλήµατα που πλήττουν Ελλάδα και Ισπανία. Σύµφωνα µε δηλώσεισ του ιάπωνα υπ. Οικονοµικών, Τζουν Αζούµι, ο ίδιοσ τÞνισε στουσ οµολÞγουσ του στην G7 Þτι η Ιαπωνία ανησυχεί ιδιαίτερα για τον αντίκτυπο που έχει στην οικονοµία τησ η ενίσχυση του γεν, ωσ συνέπεια τησ βουτιάσ του ευρώ, καθώσ και οι πτώση στισ τιµέσ των ιαπωνικών µετοχών. Ο κ. Αζούµι δήλωσε πωσ έκανε έκκληση για να επιβεβαιωθεί η συµφωνία τησ G7 τον περασµένο Σεπτέµβριο για συνεργασία των κυβερνήσεων και των κεντρικών τραπεζών µε στÞχο την αποτροπή υπερβολικών µεταβολών στισ συναλλαγµατικέσ ισοτιµίεσ.
∆˙. ™fiÚÔ˜: 3 Ì‹Ó˜ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ‰È¿ÛˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ¢ÚÒ Η Ευρώπη έχει τρεισ µήνεσ για να σώσει το ευρώ, υποστήριξε ο αµερικανÞσ δισεκατοµµυριούχοσ Τζορτζ ΣÞροσ, σύµφωνα µε το κείµενο µιασ οµιλίασ του. «Κατά την γνώµη µου, οι αρχέσ έχουν ένα παράθυρο τριών µηνών στην διάρκεια των οποίων θα µπορούσαν ακÞµη να διορθώσουν τα σφάλµατά τουσ και να αναστρέψουν τισ τωρινέσ τάσεισ. Λέγοντασ αρχέσ, εννοώ κυρίωσ τη γερµανική κυβέρνηση και την Μπούντεσµπανκ, διÞτι σε µια κρίση οι πιστωτέσ έχουν την ισχύ και τίποτε δεν µπορεί να γίνει χωρίσ την υποστήριξη τησ Γερµανίασ», ανέφερε ο δισεκατοµµυριούχοσ, άλλοτε ειδικÞσ στισ επιθέσεισ εναντίον νοµισµάτων. «Αναµένω Þτι η ελληνική κοινή γνώµη θα φοβηθεί αρκετά απÞ την προοπτική τησ εκδίωξήσ τησ απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση ώστε να δώσει µια µικρή πλειοψηφία των εδρών σε ένα (κυβερνητικÞ) συνασπισµÞ που είναι έτοιµοσ να εφαρµÞσει τη σηµερινή συµφωνία» µε την ΕΕ, την ΕΚΤ και το ∆ΝΤ και τισ τράπεζεσ-πιστωτέσ τησ χώρασ, πρÞσθεσε ο ΣÞροσ.
∆· Â˘ÚˆÔÌfiÏÔÁ· ÛÙÔ Â›ÎÂÓÙÚÔ Û˘Ó¿ÓÙËÛ˘ Ο Γάλλοσ πρÞεδροσ Φρανσουά Ολάντ και άλλοι Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτεσ αναµένεται να προωθήσουν την πρÞταση τησ έκδοσησ κοινών ευρωοµολÞγων κατά την άτυπη Σύνοδο Κορυφήσ τησ ΕΕ, την ερχÞµενη Τετάρτη, ενώ αυξάνοντασ τισ πιέσεισ στην Γερµανίδα καγκελάριο Άνγκελα Μέρκελ να υπαναχωρήσει απÞ την άκαµπτη στάση τησ. Επιπλέον, µία άλλη πρÞταση που φαίνεται πωσ κερδίζει έδαφοσ και µπορεί να υλοποιηθεί συντοµÞτερα είναι αυτή τησ απευθείασ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των τραπεζών απÞ το EFSF, αντί να δανείζει πρώτα τα κράτη και µετά στη συνέχεια αυτά να δανείζουν τισ τράπεζεσ. Ο Γάλλοσ πρÞεδροσ αναµένεται να έχει τη στήριξη του Ιταλού πρωθυπουργού Μάριο ΜÞντι, του Ισπανού Μαριάνο ΡαχÞι και τησ ΚοµισιÞν, που προωθεί αυτή την ιδέα (µε τη µορφή των ΟµολÞγων ΣταθερÞτητασ ή των ΟµολÞγων Έργων) εδώ και πολύ καιρÞ. Στην ατζέντα τησ άτυπησ ΣυνÞδου τησ Τετάρτησ κυριαρχούν τα θέµατα τησ ανάπτυξησ και των επενδύσεων.
6 IOYNIOY, 2012
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7/19
AÔÊ·Û›ÛÙ ӷ ÙÂÏÂÈÒÓÔ˘Ì Νέο κύκλο σφοδρών προειδοποιήσεων δέχθηκε η Ελλάδα απÞ Ευρωπαίουσ αξιωµατούχουσ, ενώ εντείνονται οι προετοιµασίεσ για τυχÞν έξοδο τησ χώρασ απÞ το ευρώ. Ο Γάλλοσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Πιέρ Μοσκοβισί, υποστήριξε πωσ σε περίπτωση που η Ελλάδα δεν τηρήσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ τησ, τÞτε αναπÞφευκτα θα τεθεί ζήτηµα εξÞδου τησ απÞ τη ζώνη του ευρώ. Ένα βήµα πιο µακριά πήγε η Γερµανίδα καγκελάριοσ Αγκελα Μέρκελ τονίζοντασ Þτι Þποια χώρα δεν τηρήσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ τÞτε θα παραπεµφθεί στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ∆ικαστήριο. Επίσησ η ΕΚΤ επιµένει πωσ ο µÞνοσ δρÞµοσ για την Ελλάδα είναι η εφαρµογή των Þσων έχει δεσµευθεί να πράξει. Στο ίδιο µήκοσ κύµατοσ κινούνται µε δηλώσεισ τουσ και άλλοι αξιωµατούχοι τησ Ε.Ε., ενώ στον κατάλογο αυτών που προετοιµάζονται να αντιµετωπίσουν τισ επιπτώσεισ απÞ µία πιθανή έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ το ευρώ, προστέθηκαν η Κίνα και η HSBC. Η Γερµανίδα καγκελάριοσ Αγκελα Μέρκελ, σε δηλώσεισ τησ τÞνισε χαρακτηριστικά Þτι «αυτÞ θα συµβεί, Þπωσ ισχύει για Þλεσ τισ χώρεσ που παραβιάζουν τουσ δηµοσιονοµικούσ κανÞνεσ, ενώ έστειλε νέο µήνυµα στα ελληνικά κÞµµατα Þτι δεν πρÞκειται να γίνει δεκτή χαλάρωση των Þρων του Μνηµονίου. Η Γερµανίδα καγκελάριοσ κατέστησε σαφέσ Þτι δεν προβλέπεται παραβίαση των Þρων του Μνηµονίου, που έχει υπογραφεί µε χώρα τησ Ευρωζώνησ και Þτι σε αυτήν την περίπτωση, η εν λÞγω χώρα θα παραπέµπεται στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ∆ικαστήριο. Παράλληλα η Αγκελα Μέρκελ απέρριψε για µια ακÞµη φορά τη θέσπιση ευρώ-οµολÞγων, αλλά άφησε να διαφανεί Þτι προτίθεται να επιδείξει ευελιξία σε Þ,τι αφορά την επιβολή ενÞσ φÞρου στισ χρηµατοοικονοµικέσ συναλλαγέσ και σε µέτρα για την τÞνωση τησ ανάπτυξησ στην Ευρωζώνη. Την ισχυρή επιθυµία τουσ να παραµείνει η Ελλάδα στο ευρώ εξέφρασαν χθεσ στισ Βρυξέλλεσ ο επίτροποσ Οικονοµίασ Ùλι Ρεν και ο Γάλλοσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Πιέρ Μοσκοβισί, µετά τη συνάντηση που είχαν στη βελγική
S&P: KÔÓÙ¿ ÛÙËÓ ‰Ú·¯Ì‹ Ο αµερικανικÞσ οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ Standard & Poor's διαβλέπει ''τουλάχιστον µια πιθανÞτητα στισ τρεισ'' η Ελλάδα να εγκαταλείψει την ευρωζώνη, σε έκθεσή του. Αναφέρει Þτι, εάν κάτι τέτοιο συµβεί, ''δεν θα έχει αυτοµάτωσ αρνητικέσ επιπτώσεισ για άλλα κράτη στην ίδια περιφέρεια''. ''Φρονούµε, τώρα, Þτι υφίσταται τουλάχιστον µια πιθανÞτητα στισ τρεισ η Ελλάδα να εγκαταλείψει την ευρωζώνη'', αναφέρει επί λέξει η έκθεση αυτή. ''Οµωσ επί του παρÞντοσ φρονούµε επίσησ Þτι, εάν κάτι τέτοιο συµβεί, δεν θα έχει αυτοµάτωσ αρνητικέσ επιπτώσεισ µε διάρκεια για την προοπτική άλλων κρατών στην ίδια περιφέρεια και ωσ προσ τη δική τουσ δυνατÞτητα να παραµένουν στην ευρωζώνη'', γράφει η ίδια έκθεση.
¶ÚÔÂÙÔÈÌ¿˙Ô˘Ó Ù· ∞∆ª Ì ‰Ú·¯Ì¤˜ Μετά το Βloomberg, και η βρετανική τράπεζα HSBC πραγµατοποιεί δοκιµέσ για πιθανή επιστροφή στη δραχµή. Σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ η τράπεζα κάνει δοκιµέσ στα µηχανήµατα ανάληψησ που διατηρεί στην Ελλάδα ώστε να είναι βέβαιο Þτι µπορούν να λειτουργήσουν µε χαρτονοµίσµατα διαφορετικού µεγέθουσ και υφήσ, σε περίπτωση επαναφοράσ τησ δραχµήσ. Η Αρχή Χρηµατοπιστωτικών Υπηρεσιών, Þπωσ και η Τράπεζα τησ Αγγλίασ έχουν ζητήσει απÞ τισ βρετανικέσ τράπεζεσ να είναι έτοιµεσ για παν ενδεχÞµενο. Τα τεστ που πραγµατοποιεί η HSBC αποσκοπούν στο να εντοπιστούν τυχÞν τροποποιήσεισ που απαιτούνται στα ATM ώστε να χειρίζονται χαρτονοµίσµατα άλλα απÞ του ευρώ. Η HSBC διατηρεί 15 υποκαταστήµατα και 25 µηχανήµατα ανάληψησ χρηµάτων στην Ελλάδα. Εν τω µεταξύ σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ η Τράπεζα Κύπρου στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο ενηµερώνει µε επιστολέσ τουσ καταθέτεσ στα υποκαταστήµατα επί βρετανικού εδάφουσ Þτι ολοκληρώνεται τισ προσεχείσ εβδοµάδεσ η διαδικασία υπαγωγήσ των καταθέσεών τουσ στο σύστηµα εγγυήσεων τησ βρετανικήσ κυβέρνησησ. Η Τράπεζα Κύπρου είναι µία απÞ τισ τρεισ ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ που λειτουργούν στη Βρετανία µε το σύστηµα εγγυήσεων άλλησ χώρασ, στην προκειµένη περίπτωση τησ Κύπρου.
πρωτεύουσα. Ο Ευρωπαίοσ Επίτροποσ αναγνώρισε το πÞσο επώδυνεσ είναι οι επιπτώσεισ για πολλούσ Έλληνεσ απÞ την εφαρµογή του προγράµµατοσ προσαρµογήσ, υπογράµµισε την ανάγκη σεβασµού εκ µέρουσ τησ Ελλάδασ των δεσµεύσεων που έχει αναλάβει. Σηµείωσε χαρακτηριστικά πωσ «επιθυµούµε να παραµείνει η Ελλάδα στο ευρώ και εργαζÞµαστε προσ αυτÞ το σκοπÞ». ΑπÞ την πλευρά του ο Γάλλοσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τÞνισε Þτι είναι επιθυµία και πεποίθηση τησ Γαλλίασ να παραµείνει η Ελλάδα στο ευρώ, κάτι το οποίο είναι «θεµελιώδεσ και η µÞνη λύση» και «θα πρέπει να καταβληθεί κάθε προσπάθεια προσ αυτή την κατεύθυνση». «Η παραµονή τησ Ελλάδασ στο ευρώ είναι θετικÞ και αναγκαίο για την Ελλάδα και το ευρώ», ανέφερε χαρακτηριστικά.
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§·˚΋: N¤· οÚÙ· ∞¶√∂§ Prepaid Visa Τη νέα κάρτα ΑΠΟΕΛ Prepaid Visa παρουσίασε η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Η ΑΠΟΕΛ Credit Visa προσφέρει Þλα τα πλεονεκτήµατα µιασ πιστωτικήσ κάρτασ και ταυτÞχρονα σασ δίνει τη ευκαιρία να ενισχύσετε οικονοµικά την οµάδα σασ, απÞ τισ συναλλαγέσ που γίνονται µε την κάρτα. Η κάρτα εκδίδεται και ωσ ΑΠΟΕΛ Platinum Credit Visa, προσφέροντασ τα µοναδικά προνÞµια των καρτών Platinum τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ. Αποκτώντασ την ΑΠΟΕΛ Credit Visa επωφελείστε µεταξύ άλλων: 5% έκπτωση στην πρώτη αγορά εισιτηρίου διαρκείασ τησ οµάδασ, συνολική έκπτωση 15% στην ανανέωση εισιτηρίου διαρκείασ (10% που προσφέρεται απÞ τον ΑΠΟΕΛ και 5% που προσφέρεται απÞ την ΑΠΟΕΛ Credit Visa) και 20% έκπτωση στισ αγορέσ αυθεντικών προϊÞντων τησ οµάδασ απÞ το ΑΠΟΕΛ Orange Shop. Η νέα ονοµαστική, προπληρωµένη και επαναφορτιζÞµενη κάρτα ΑΠΟΕΛ Prepaid Visa δεν έχει πιστωτικÞ Þριο, δεν συνδέεται µε οποιονδήποτε λογαριασµÞ και διασφαλίζει µέγιστη ασφάλεια τÞσο στισ πληρωµέσ και συναλλαγέσ σασ Þσο και στισ αναλήψεισ µετρητών.
¡¤Ô ÛÙÚ·ÁÁÈÛÙfi °È·Ô‡ÚÙÈ Ã·Ú·Ï·Ì›‰Ë˜ Light Μετά την επιτυχία του εµπλουτισµένου γιαουρτιού Χαραλαµπίδησ active και των βιολογικών γιαουρτιών Χαραλαµπίδησ bio, ο Χαραλαµπίδησ παρουσιάζει το νέο στραγγιστÞ γιαούρτι Χαραλαµπίδησ light µε µÞνο 3% λιπαρά. Το Χαραλαµπίδησ Light παράγεται απÞ ολÞφρεσκο κυπριακÞ γάλα, που του δίνει την αυθεντική πλούσια γεύση στραγγιστού γιαουρτιού. Η πλούσια διατροφική του αξία το καθιστά απαραίτητο και αναντικατάστατο για την καθηµερινή µασ διατροφή. ∆ιατίθεται στην αγορά σε συσκευασίεσ 300 γραµµαρίων και ενÞσ κιλού. ΙδανικÞ για Þλη την οικογένεια, το στραγγιστÞ γιαούρτι Χαραλαµπίδησ Light αποτελεί τη λύση για ένα ελαφρύ γεύµα που µπορεί να απολαύσει κάθε µέλοσ τησ οικογένειασ, σε συνδυασµÞ µε φρέσκα φρούτα ή δηµητριακά ή ωσ ένα υγιεινÞ επιδÞρπιο και σνακ. Με το στραγγιστÞ γιαούρτι Χαραλαµπίδησ Light µπορείτε να φτιάξετε νÞστιµο, παραδοσιακÞ τζατζίκι ή άλλεσ µοναδικέσ συνταγέσ µε βάση το γιαούρτι µε χαµηλά λιπαρά.
∫˘ÎÏÔÊfiÚ fiÚËÛÂ Ô √‰ËÁfi˜ fi˜ ¢È·ÎÔ¤˜ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· 2012 ΚυκλοφÞρησε ο νέοσ ετήσιοσ ΟδηγÞσ ∆ιακοπέσ Ελλάδασ 2012 µε Þλεσ τισ απαραίτητεσ πληροφορίεσ για τουσ ταξιδιώτεσ που θα προτιµήσουν την Ελλάδα για τισ φετινέσ διακοπέσ τουσ. ΠρÞκειται για µια µοναδική έκδοση 194 πανέγχρωµων σελίδων που περιγράφει αναλυτικά Þλεσ τισ περιοχέσ τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ τουριστικήσ, ιστορικήσ και πολιτιστικήσ πλευράσ. Ο ΟδηγÞσ συνοδεύεται απÞ πλούσιο φωτογραφικÞ υλικÞ για την κάθε περιοχή, ενώ περιέχει Þλεσ τισ χρήσιµεσ πληροφορίεσ που χρειάζεται ο επισκέπτησ τησ κάθε περιοχήσ. ΑκÞµα, ο ΟδηγÞσ περιέχει προτάσεισ για τισ καλύτερεσ παραλίεσ, για ξενοδοχεία, για ταβέρνεσ, για αεροπορικέσ και ακτοπλοϊκέσ συνδέσεισ κλπ. Τέλοσ, στον ΟδηγÞ περιλαµβάνονται οι προτάσεισ µε τισ τιµέσ των τουριστικών γραφείων τησ Κύπρου για την Ελλάδα (εκδροµέσ, πακέτα, κλπ). Ο ΟδηγÞσ εκδίδεται απÞ την Εταιρεία Επικοινωνίασ, ∆ηµοσιÞτητασ, ΕκδÞσεων, ∆ιαφηµίσεων και Συνεδρίων fmw financial media way και οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να τον ζητήσουν στο τηλ. 22342005.
∞Ó·Óˆ̤ÓÔ ÙÔ Sun Hall Beach ÛÙËÓ §¿Úӷη Το Sun Hall Beach Hotel Apts, στην καρδιά τησ Λάρνακασ, στην παραλία των Φοινικούδων, επέστρεψε υπÞ νέα διεύθυνση και πλήρωσ ανακαινισµένο έτοιµο να προσφέρει τισ υπηρεσίεσ του. Ùλα τα δωµάτια διαθέτουν τον απαραίτητο εξοπλισµÞ για άνετη διαµονή. Επιπλέον, Þλοι οι ένοικοι έχουν την ευκαιρία να απολαµβάνουν τισ επιπρÞσθετεσ παροχέσ που προσφέρονται, Þπωσ δωρεάν Wi Fi και δορυφορική τηλεÞραση. Η επαναλειτουργία του Sun Hall Beach Hotel Apts είναι η καλύτερη λύση για οικονοµικέσ, άνετεσ και µε θέα την παραλία των Φοινικούδων διακοπέσ. Επίσησ, στο Sun Hall Beach Hotel Apts υπάρχει ειδικά διαµορφωµένοσ χώροσ για εκθέσεισ έργων τέχνησ και για βιβλιοπαρουσιάσεισ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο http://www.sunhallbeachhotelapts.com
¡¤· ÌÔÓ٤Ϸ Nissan Murano Î·È Nissan GT-R Σε άκρωσ καλοκαιρινή διάθεση και µε φÞντο την θάλασσα πραγµατοποιήθηκε η εκδήλωση τησ NEW NISSAN CYPRUS LTD, µέλοσ του οµίλου Πηλακούτα στο Sailor’s Rest. Πρωταγωνιστέσ τησ εκδήλωσησ ήταν τα νέα εκπληκτικά µοντέλα τησ Nissan: Το Nissan Murano 2012 και GT-R 2012 τα οποία έκλεψαν τισ εντυπώσεισ των προσκεκληµένων. Τα δύο µοναδικά µοντέλα είναι κορυφαία στην κατηγορία τουσ και επιδεικνύουν την τεχνολογική και σχεδιαστική υπεροχή τησ Nissan. Το Murano απÞ την άλλη είναι ένα µοντέλο το οποίο γρήγορα κέρδισε ένα σηµαντικÞ µερίδιο τησ αγοράσ. Το πολυτελέσ Crossover τησ Nissan, ανανεωµένο αισθητικά, αλλά και µε την επιλογή ντίζελ κινητήρα κεντρίζει ακÞµα περισσÞτερο τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ αγοραστέσ.
∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋ ∆Ú¿Â˙·: BÚ¿‚¢ÛË 72 «√ÈÎÔÏÔÁÈÎÒÓ ™¯ÔÏ›ˆÓ»
™˘Ó¯›˙ÂÙ·È Ë ÂÎÛÙÚ·Ù›· «Ex-Smokers are Unstoppable» Η πανευρωπαϊκή εκστρατεία «Ex-Smokers are Unstoppable» εισέρχεται µε επιτυχία στο δεύτερο τησ έτοσ και η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή έχει µÞνο θετικά αποτελέσµατα να παρουσιάσει έωσ σήµερα. Η εκστρατεία «Ex-Smokers are Unstoppable» ή «Αν το σταµατήσεισ δεν σε σταµατάει τίποτα» έχει υιοθετήσει µια µοναδική προσέγγιση στη µέθοδο υποστήριξησ υπέρ του τερµατισµού του καπνίσµατοσ, δίνοντασ έµφαση στα πλεονεκτήµατα του να είναι κανείσ πρώην καπνιστήσ, σε αντίθεση µε το να δίνει ουσία στισ αρνητικέσ συνέπειεσ που προκαλούνται στην υγεία. Η εκστρατεία επικεντρώνεται στο Þτι εάν σταµατήσεισ το κάπνισµα ή συνεχίζεισ να µην καπνίζεισ γίνεσαι ασταµάτητοσ ή «unstoppable». Ένασ πρώην καπνιστήσ µυρίζει καλύτερα, φιλά καλύτερα, είναι πιο δραστήριοσ, ταξιδεύει περισσÞτερο, είναι ποιο υγιήσ και γενικÞτερα δεν τον σταµατάει τίποτα! Η εκστρατεία «Ex-Smokers are Unstoppable» παρουσιάζεται σε Þλα τα κράτη-µέλη τησ ΕΕ και τοπικά η κάθε Ex-Smokers οµάδα συντονίζει την εκστρατεία. Οι εκδηλώσεισ τησ οµάδασ των «Unstoppable Cyprus» ανακοινώνονται τακτικά στο Facebook (www.facebook.com/Unstoppable.kypros).
72 «Οικολογικά Σχολεία» απÞ την επαρχία Λεµεσού βραβεύτηκαν σε εκδήλωση που πραγµατοποίησε η Ελληνική Τράπεζα, στα πλαίσια τησ Εταιρικήσ Κοινωνικήσ τησ Ευθύνησ, σε συνεργασία µε την Περιβαλλοντική Οργάνωση CYMEPA και το Υπουργείο Παιδείασ και Πολιτισµού. Την εκδήλωση επιχορήγησε η Ελληνική Τράπεζα, χορηγÞσ του Προγράµµατοσ «Οικολογικά Σχολεία». Τα «Οικολογικά Σχολεία» είναι ένα ∆ιεθνέσ ΠρÞγραµµα τησ FEE (Foundation for Environmental Education) και απευθύνεται στα Νηπιαγωγεία, ∆ηµοτικά Σχολεία, Γυµνάσια και Λύκεια. Έχει ωσ στÞχο, µέσα απÞ τη µελέτη θεµάτων Þπωσ είναι η Ενέργεια, το ΝερÞ, τα Απορρίµµατα και η ΒιοποικιλÞτητα, να βοηθήσει τουσ µαθητέσ και αυριανούσ πολίτεσ να αποκτήσουν µια υπεύθυνη και ενεργητική στάση σε σχέση µε το περιβάλλον.
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∂˘Úˆ˙ÒÓË: ¢Â‡ÙÂÚË Ï¿ÓË, ¯ÂÈÚfiÙÂÚË Ù˘ ÚÒÙ˘ fiÓÙÔ ÙËÓ «·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË». ∏ ∫˘Úȷ΋ ¶ÚÔ‰ڛ· Ù˘ ∂˘Úˆ·˚΋˜ ŒÓˆÛ˘ ÂÁηÈÓÈ¿˙ÂÙ·È Ì ÊfiÓ £∂√¢øƒ√√™ ¶∞¡∞°πø∆√À ∫·ıËÁËÙ‹˜ Î·È ¢È¢ı˘ÓÙ‹˜ ÙÔ˘ ¢ÈÂıÓÔ‡˜ πÓÛÙÈÙÔ‡ÙÔ˘ ¢È‡ı˘ÓÛ˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ (CIIM), ∫·ıËÁËÙ‹˜ √ÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓ ÛÙÔ ¶·ÓÂÈÛÙ‹ÌÈÔ Ã¿Ú‚·ÚÓÙ, ÙÈÌ‹ıËΠÁÈ· ÙË Û˘ÓÂÈÛÊÔÚ¿ ÙÔ˘ ÛÙÔ µÚ·‚Â›Ô ¡fiÌÂÏ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ÂÈÚ‹ÓË ÙÔ 2007
Ùταν πριν ένα χρÞνο προειδοποιούσα Þτι µε τα «βεβιασµένα µέτρα λιτÞτητασ και δηµοσιονοµικήσ εξυγίανσησ εν µία νυκτί χωρίσ µέτρα ανάπτυξησ η Ευρωζώνη έσκαβε τον λάκκο τησ Ελλάδασ και τον δικÞ τησ», λίγοι έδιναν σηµασία. Σήµερα οι πάντεσ µιλούν για ανάπτυξη, απÞ τουσ δικούσ µασ πολιτικούσ µέχρι και τουσ σκληρο-πυρηνικούσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ, τησ κ. Μέρκελ µη εξαιρουµένησ. Οι εκλογέσ στην Ελλάδα γίνονται για δεύτερη φορά µέσα σ’ ένα µήνα µε σύνθηµα Þλων την «ανάπτυξη». Οι Γαλλικέσ εκλογέσ διεκδικήθηκαν και κερδήθηκαν µε σύνθηµα την «ανάπτυξη». Η Κυπριακή Προεδρία τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ εγκαινιάζεται µε φÞντο την «ανάπτυξη». ΑυτÞ θα έπρεπε να χαροποιεί εκείνουσ απÞ µασ που ζητούσαν επίµονα µέτρα ανάπτυξησ ταυτÞχρονα µε την «λιτÞτητα». Έστω και µε καθυστέρηση πλέον των δύο ετών οι πολιτικοί, τα κέντρα αποφάσεων τησ Ευρωζώνησ, ακÞµα και το ∆ΝΤ και οι οικονοµολÞγοι σύµβουλοι τουσ είδαν το φωσ. Κάλλιο αργά παρά ποτέ! Και Þµωσ οι διακηρύξεισ τουσ µÞνο ανησυχία µπορούν να εµπνέουν. Ùχι µÞνον γιατί γίνονται µε το στανιÞ αλλά και γιατί περιορίζονται σε γενικÞτητεσ. Ùχι µÞνο γιατί στερούνται περιεχοµένου αλλά και γιατί περιορίζονται στη συνηθισµένη συνταγή των πολιτικών «ρίξε χρήµα στο πρÞβληµα κ’ αν δεν λυθεί τουλάχιστο θα συγκαλυφθεί, κι’ έτσι θα κλείσεισ τα στÞµατα του κÞσµου, τουλάχιστον εκείνων που θα είναι γεµάτα». Σε τι ανάπτυξη µπορεί να ελπίζει κανείσ, Þταν η οι ηθικέσ, θεσµικέσ, γνωστικέσ, ψυχολογικέσ και διαρθρωτικέσ βάσεισ για ανάπτυξη δεν υπάρχουν, και εκεί
που υπήρχαν καταρρακώθηκαν µε τα τιµωρητικά µέτρα λιτÞτητασ και εσπευσµένησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ εξυγίανσησ; Σε τι θα βασίσεισ την ανάπτυξη Þταν τρία ολÞκληρα χρÞνια χάθηκαν χωρίσ καν να γίνει η σωστή διάγνωση των ριζικών αιτιών τησ απώλειασ τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ τησ οικονοµίασ τησ Ελλάδασ αλλά και τησ Κύπρου και των άλλων δοκιµαζοµένων νοτίων οικονοµιών τησ Ευρωζώνησ; Αλλά ασ περιοριστούµε στην Ελλάδα που απειλεί σε δυο βδοµάδεσ να παρασύρει και την δική µασ οικονοµία αλλά και να έχει απρÞβλεπτεσ και αλυσιδωτέσ επιπτώσεισ στην Ευρωπαϊκή και διεθνή οικονοµία. Κανείσ δεν αµφιβάλλει Þτι η διάθεση µεγάλων κεφαλαίων απÞ την ΕΕ για έργα υποδοµήσ στην Ελλάδα θα δηµιουργήσει θέσεισ εργασίασ τονώνοντασ έτσι την ζήτηση και οδηγώντασ, σύµφωνα µε τον Maynard Keynes, σε αλυσιδωτέσ αυξήσεισ ιδιωτικών επενδύσεων, δηµιουργία νέων θέσεων εργασίασ, και περαιτέρω αυξήσεισ στην ζήτηση. Αυτή Þµωσ είναι τÞνωση (stimulus) τησ οικονοµίασ και Þχι ανάπτυξη (development). Κι’ Þπωσ είδαµε µε τα µέτρα τÞνωσησ που πάρθηκαν και στην Κύπρο και στην Ελλάδα αλλά και παγκοσµίωσ το 2009 τα αποτελέσµατα τουσ ήταν πενιχρά και προσωρινά και οπωσδήποτε καθÞλου αναπτυξιακά αν και ωσ τέτοια παρουσιάστηκαν στουσ φορολογούµενουσ. Πραγµατική και διαρκήσ ανάπτυξη, Þχι εικονική και προσωρινή, απαιτεί ανάκτηση τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ µιασ χώρασ. Κι’ ενώ η δηµοσιονοµική εξυγίανση και τα έργα δηµοσίων υποδοµών βοηθούν στην ανάκτηση τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ µιασ χώρασ, απÞ µÞνα τουσ δεν την επιτυγχάνουν και µπορεί µάλιστα να την επιβραδύνουν. Η ανάκτηση τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ απαιτεί δηµιουργία καινοτÞµων επιχειρήσεων µεγάλων δυνατοτήτων. Στην Ελλάδα, αλλά και στην Κύπρο οι πλείστεσ των επιχειρήσεων είναι επιχειρήσεισ ανάγκησ ή ευκαιριακέσ που σκοπεύουν στο γρήγορο κέρδοσ απÞ την τοπική αγορά και Þχι στην παραγωγή ανταγωνιστικών προϊÞντων και υπηρεσιών υψηλήσ ποιÞτητασ για την διεθνή αγορά. Πώσ δηµιουργείσ καινοτÞµεσ επιχειρήσεισ µεγάλων δυνατοτήτων σε µια χώρα που στερείται καινοτοµικού και επιχει-
ρηµατικού πνεύµατοσ ή µάλλον σε µια χώρα που ο κÞσµοσ για δεκαετίεσ τώρα διοχετεύει την δηµιουργικÞτητα και το επιχειρηµατικÞ του δαιµÞνιο στην αλληλο-εξαπάτηση και το γρήγορο προσωπικÞ κέρδοσ απÞ την υπÞσκαψη του κράτουσ; Που βασίζεισ την κριτική σκέψη και την δηµιουργικÞτητα Þταν το εκπαιδευτικÞ σύστηµα βασίζεται στην τυποποίηση και τον κοµφορµισµÞ; Που βασίζεισ την ανταγωνιστικÞτητα και την ανάπτυξη που εξαρτώνται απÞ την δηµιουργία οικονοµικήσ και κοινωνικήσ αξίασ Þταν οι αξίεσ έχουν αλλοιωθεί τÞσο που η οικονοµική αξία πια δεν δηµιουργείται αλλά υποκλέπτεται; Είναι οι φορείσ χάραξησ πολιτικήσ και οι υπεύθυνοι λήψησ αποφάσεων τησ Ευρωζώνησ διατεθειµένοι να εγκύψουν στα πραγµατικά προβλήµατα και να βοηθήσουν στην ριζική τουσ θεραπεία, ώστε η Ελλάδα και οι άλλεσ προβληµατικέσ οικονοµίεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ να ανακτήσουν την ανταγωνιστικÞτητα τουσ; Ή µήπωσ αρκούνται στην καταπολέµηση των συµπτωµάτων, δηλαδή του δηµοσιονοµικού ελλείµµατοσ και του δηµοσίου χρέουσ σε πρώτη φάση και τησ έλλειψησ ανάπτυξησ σε δεύτερη φάση; Αγνοώντασ τον αφορισµÞ του Αϊνστάιν Þτι «δεν µπορούµε να λύσουµε τα προβλήµατα µε το ίδιο σκεπτικÞ που τα δηµιουργήσαµε», δεν θα βγει σε καλÞ ούτε τησ Ελλάδασ ούτε τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Ùσο για µασ στην Κύπρο µήπωσ τώρα κάνουµε σε εθνικÞ επίπεδο το ίδιο λάθοσ που έκαναν οι τράπεζεσ µασ Þταν, αψηφώντασ το αυξανÞµενο ρίσκο, επένδυαν αβέρτα σε Ελληνικά οµÞλογα Þταν οι άλλοι τα ξεπουλούσαν; Η ανάπτυξη τησ οικονοµίασ µιασ χώρασ απαιτεί την ανάκτηση τησ διεθνούσ τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ η οποία στην περίπτωση τουλάχιστον τησ Ελλάδασ και τησ Κύπρου απαιτεί ριζικέσ αλλαγέσ. Η δηµοσιονοµική εξυγίανση χρειάζεται χρονική επιµήκυνση, τα αναπτυξιακά κεφάλαια χρηστή διαχείριση, οι θεσµοί ριζική αναδιαµÞρφωση. ∆ιαφορετικά την πλάνη τησ τιµωρητικήσ λιτÞτητασ και τησ αστραπιαίασ δηµοσιονοµικήσ εξυγίανσησ θα ακολουθήσει η πλάνη τησ παράλληλησ και ανώδυνησ ανάπτυξησ µε Ευρωπαϊκά κεφάλαια, και «έσται η δευτέρα πλάνη χείρων τησ πρώτησ».
∆Ú·Â˙›Ù˜: ™Ù·Ì·Ù‹ÛÙ ӷ ‚¿˙ÂÙ fiÏ· Û·˜ Ù· ·˘Á¿ Û ¤Ó· ηϿıÈ fiÌ· Î·È Ë ‚·ÛÈ΋ ÁÓÒÛË ÙˆÓ ¯ÚËÌ·ÙÔÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓ Ï¤ÂÈ fiÙ fiÙÈ ‰ÂÓ ı· Ú¤ÂÈ ¶√∆∂ Ó· ‚¿˙ÂȘ fiÏ fiÏ· ÛÔ˘ ∞ÎfiÌ Ù· ·˘Á¿ ÛÙÔ ›‰ÈÔ Î·Ï¿ıÈ °πøƒ°√™ £∂√Ã∞ƒπ¢∏™ ∞Ó·ÏËÚˆÙ‹˜ ∫·ıËÁËÙ‹˜ ÛÙÔÓ ÙÔ̤· ÙˆÓ ÃÚËÌ·ÙÔÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÒÓ ÛÙÔ CIIM Î·È ¢È¢ı˘ÓÙ‹˜ ÙÔ˘ ªÂÙ·Ù˘¯È·ÎÔ‡ ÚÔÁÚ¿ÌÌ·ÙÔ˜ ÛÙ· ÃÚËÌ·ÙÔÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈο Î·È ∆Ú·Â˙Èο (MSc in Finance & Banking)
Κατά τουσ τελευταίουσ µερικούσ µήνεσ έχουµε βιώσει µια περίοδο εξαιρετικήσ αβεβαιÞτητασ στον τραπεζικÞ µασ τοµέα αλλά και ευρύτερα στην οικονοµία µασ ωσ σύνολο, κυρίωσ ένεκα των τεράστιων ζηµιών που είχαν οι τράπεζέσ µασ απÞ την αναδιάρθρωση του Ελληνικού χρέουσ. Ένα ποσÞ γύρω στα 5 δισ ευρώ έχει διαγραφεί απÞ τουσ ισολογισµούσ των τραπεζών µασ µε την εφαρµογή τησ περίφηµησ εµπλοκήσ του ιδιωτικού τοµέα στην ανταλλαγή οµολÞγων (PSI), που ισοδυναµεί µε το 30% περίπου του Ακαθάριστου Εγχώριου ΠροϊÞντοσ (ΑΕΠ) τησ Κύπρου για το 2011! ΑπÞ τÞτε είµαστε µάρτυρεσ των απεγνωσµένων προσπαθειών εκ µέρουσ των τραπεζών να επιτύχουν τουσ στÞχουσ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ που ζητούνται απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Τραπεζική Αρχή µέχρι το τέλοσ Ιουνίου. Μετά που φάνηκε Þτι ήταν αδύνατο να εξευρεθούν απÞ ιδιώτεσ επενδυτέσ τα κεφάλαια που απαιτούνταν, η Κυβέρνηση αναγκάστηκε να παρέµβει για να βοηθήσει αναλαµβάνοντασ την εγγύηση τησ έκδοσησ του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου που είναι απαραίτητο να αντληθεί για την Λαϊκή Τράπεζα – ένα ποσÞ 1.8 δισ ευρώ, που είναι σχεδÞν το 10% του ΑΕΠ τησ χώρασ! Η Ανώτατη ∆ιεύθυνση και τα ∆ιοικητικά Συµβούλια των τραπεζών αυτών έγιναν δέκτεσ δριµείασ κριτικήσ και κατηγοριών για τισ ενέργειέσ τουσ, κυρίωσ γιατί ενήργησαν κατά τρÞπο κερδοσκοπικÞ (ή τζογαδÞρικο) επενδύοντασ στα µεγάλου ρίσκου Ελληνικά κρατικά οµÞλογα µε τα χρήµατα των επενδυτών και των καταθετών. Αρκετέσ κατηγορίεσ εκτοξεύτηκαν και κατά του πρώην ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ
Τράπεζασ τησ Κύπρου Þτι απέτυχε να παρακολουθεί και να εποπτεύει σωστά τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ των τραπεζών αυτών. Kατά την άποψη µου Þµωσ, η κύρια επίκριση θα έπρεπε να επικεντρωθεί στην αποτυχία των τραπεζών αυτών να διαφοροποιήσουν το χαρτοφυλάκιo τουσ για περιορισµÞ των κινδύνων. ΑκÞµα και η βασική γνώση των χρηµατοοικονοµικών λέει Þτι δεν θα πρέπει ΠΟΤΕ να βάζεισ Þλα σου τα αυγά στο ίδιο καλάθι. Ùταν συνδυάζεισ διάφορα περιουσιακά στοιχεία στο χαρτοφυλάκιÞ σου, απολαµβάνεισ τα οφέλη τησ διαφοροποίησησ του κινδύνου, γεγονÞσ που µπορεί να βοηθήσει στον περιορισµÞ του ιδιοσυγκρασιακού κινδύνου (ή του ειδικού κινδύνου του εκδÞτη), αφήνοντάσ σε µε τον συστηµατικÞ (ή µη διαφοροποιούµενο ) κίνδυνο που απορρέει λÞγω τησ φύσησ τησ αγοράσ. Για παράδειγµα, αν οι τράπεζεσ διατηρούσαν διαφοροποιηµένο χαρτοφυλάκιο, τÞτε οι Þποιεσ ζηµιέσ που θα προέκυπταν απÞ το ΕλληνικÞ κούρεµα θα µπορούσαν να αντισταθµιστούν απÞ κέρδη σε άλλα περιουσιακά στοιχεία στο χαρτοφυλάκιÞ τουσ. Το να επενδύσει κάποιοσ σε επικίνδυνεσ µετοχέσ ή οµÞλογα δεν είναι αµάρτηµα και οι επενδυτέσ έχουν διαφορετικέσ προτιµήσεισ Þσον αφορά στουσ κινδύνουσ, αλλά σίγουρα δεν είναι σοφÞ να µην διαφοροποιεί ένασ σωστά το χαρτοφυλάκιÞ του. Έχουµε επίσησ ακούσει ευρέωσ απÞ τουσ τραπεζίτεσ την δικαιολογία Þτι το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ είναι απαλλαγµένο κινδύνων και Þτι κανένασ δεν ανέµενε την περίοδο εκείνη Þτι η Ελλάδα θα αδυνατούσε να πληρώσει τα χρέη τησ. Παρά το Þτι υπάρχει κάποια αλήθεια σε αυτÞ, µε την έννοια Þτι η Ελλάδα αποτελεί µέροσ τησ νοµισµατικήσ ένωσησ των κρατών µελών τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, γνωρίζουµε απÞ τη δική µασ εµπειρία στο παρελθÞν Þτι πολλέσ χώρεσ αδυνατούσαν να αποπληρώσουν το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ τουσ (αντιπροσωπευτικά παραδείγµατα αποτελούν η Ρωσία το 1998 και η Αργεντινή το 2002). Τώρα που γνωρίζουµε Þτι µέροσ των Ελληνικών κρατικών οµολÞγων αποκτήθηκαν απÞ την δευτερεύουσα αγορά, (δηλαδή απÞ τρίτα µέρη) και Þχι απÞ την πρωτογενή αγορά (δηλαδή Þχι απÞ την Ελληνική κυβέρνηση, τον άµεσο εκδÞτη των οµολÞγων) µάλιστα σε µια περίοδο που τα οµÞλογα αυτά ετύγχαναν διαπραγµάτευσησ πολύ
πιο κάτω απÞ την ονοµαστική τουσ αξία, µπορούµε να πούµε Þτι αυτÞ το γεγονÞσ θα έπρεπε να αποτελέσει ισχυρÞ σήµα κινδύνου προσ τισ τράπεζεσ Þτι η επένδυση αυτή εµπεριείχε πολύ µεγάλο ρίσκο. Επιπλέον, θα έπρεπε να αποτελέσει προειδοποίηση για τουσ κινδύνουσ Þσον αφορά την επέκταση των τραπεζών µασ στον ΕλλαδικÞ χώρο και τισ τεράστιεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ τουσ εκεί. Φαίνεται, Þµωσ, Þτι είχαν πάρει την απÞφαση να ποντάρουν για να επιτύχουν ψηλέσ αποδÞσεισ, χωρίσ να διατηρούν ένα καλά διαφοροποιηµένο χαρτοφυλάκιο. Στο τέλοσ αποδείχθηκε Þτι η ριψοκίνδυνη αυτή επένδυση δεν απέδωσε τα αναµενÞµενα. Τέλοσ, συµφωνώ µε Þλουσ αυτούσ που υποστηρίζουν Þτι πρέπει να διεξαχθεί µια σε βάθοσ έρευνα ωσ προσ το τι πήγε στραβά (και ποιοι ευθύνονται) για να οδηγηθούν οι τράπεζεσ σε τÞσεσ µαζικέσ ζηµιέσ. Αν η πιο πάνω κατάσταση είχε επισυµβεί σε άλλεσ βιοµηχανίεσ, θα µπορούσε κάποιοσ να πει Þτι το θέµα είναι εσωτερική υπÞθεση που θα έπρεπε να τύχει χειρισµού απÞ τουσ υφιστάµενουσ µετÞχουσ. Ùµωσ, ο τραπεζικÞσ τοµέασ είναι µια εντελώσ ξεχωριστή περίπτωση, καθώσ εµπεριέχει συστεµικÞ ρίσκο που µπορεί να οδηγήσει σε κατάρρευση ολÞκληρησ τησ οικονοµίασ (ιδιαίτερα στην Κύπρο Þπου έχουµε ένα τÞσο τεράστιο τραπεζικÞ τοµέα σε σχέση µε το ΑΕΠ τησ χώρασ). Είναι για αυτÞ που η Κυβέρνηση δεν έχει άλλη επιλογή παρά να επέµβει, να αναλάβει ανάδοχοσ τησ νέασ έκδοσησ µετοχών, και να επαναφέρει κάποια σταθερÞτητα και αίσθηµα ασφάλειασ στην αγορά (θα υποστήριζα εντούτοισ Þτι η κίνηση αυτή θα έπρεπε να είχε γίνει µήνεσ πριν παρά να περιµένει ωσ την τελευταία στιγµή). Ασ ελπίσουµε Þτι οι εκλογέσ τησ 17ησ Ιουνίου θα δώσουν κυβέρνηση στην Ελλάδα που θα είναι υπέρ του Ευρώ και θα συνεχίσει µε τισ αναγκαίεσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ, Þτι οι τράπεζεσ θα επιτύχουν την επιθυµητή ανακεφαλαιοποίηση και η κυβέρνησή µασ θα τηρήσει τισ υποσχέσεισ τησ να µειώσει το δηµοσιονοµικÞ έλλειµµα στο 2.5% το 2012 και Þτι θα πάρει αποτελεσµατικά µέτρα για προώθηση τησ ανάπτυξησ. ΜÞνο τÞτε µπορούµε να είµαστε αισιÞδοξοι Þτι µασ αναµένουν καλύτερεσ µέρεσ.
June 6 - 12, 2012
FinancialMirror.com
22 WORLD
California city’s pension vote A precedent for U.S.?
A radical plan to slash public employee pension benefits gets voted on by the residents of Silicon Valley’s San Jose this week - a decision that could set an important precedent for many other cities, not only in California but across the nation. The nation’s 10th-largest city is also one of the wealthiest, but over the past several years it has cut its municipal workforce by a quarter, laying off cops and firefighters, shuttering libraries and letting street repairs fall by the wayside. The problem? Mayor Chuck Reed says it’s simple: Retiree benefit costs eat up more than a quarter of the city budget - and are growing at a double-digit rate. The solution he is pushing at the ballot box, after city council approval, would slash benefits for workers, increase employee contributions - and almost certainly prompt a precedent-setting legal challenge from the public employee unions. «The best metaphor is cancer,» said Reed, a Democrat known as more of a technocrat than a firebrand, who is now cast as public enemy No. 1 by public employee unions. «It started a long time ago, it goes for a long time, and then it becomes life-threatening.» It’s a challenge other cities in California will soon face. «Our problem is nearly universal in the state,» he added. «It’s just a question of timing.» Public finance woes are nothing new in California. The state budget deficit stands at an estimated $15.7 bln for next year, requiring further cuts in state services and, if Governor Jerry Brown has his way, higher income and sales taxes. Local governments and school districts have struggled for years to make ends meet. The pension problem, though, may be the mother of all budget issues - for California, for its cities and counties, and for other states and municipalities across the nation. The main California state retirement systems have a total shortfall in pension-plan funding of close to half a trillion dollars, a Stanford University study estimated. The bill is not due at once, but payments on it grow steadily and can eventually squeeze out even basic services. Public officials like Reed, and academics who have studied the issue, say the day of reckoning is nigh. San Jose is not the only city making tough choices. In San Diego, voters will also be asked to approve a pensioncutting ballot initiative. In Stockton, city officials, unions and creditors are engaged in a mediation process aimed at avoiding a municipal bankruptcy - and public employee pensions are an achingly large part of the problem. San Jose, San Diego and the counties of Kern, San Mateo and Santa Barbara are among the worst-off of municipalities
with their own retirement systems, based on calculations in the Stanford study; all pay double-digit percentages of their annual budgets to pensions and all face double-digit rates of increase, among other issues. The city of Los Angeles was only marginally healthier than the bottom of the pack. Meanwhile, the giant California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), the largest public pension fund in the country, has been engaged in a tortured debate about whether its rate-of-return assumptions are too optimistic. The CalPERS plan covers state workers and dozens of cities that voluntarily joined its system. It recently cut its annual return assumption to 7.5% from 7.75%, which would raise the shortfall it previously had estimated at $85 bln to $90 bln. CalPERS says it has easily met its return target for 20 years, but Stanford’s Joe Nation and other economists say a lower rate would better reflect the uncertain outlook for markets and a century-long record of market returns. On Friday the Dow Jones industrial average fell to its lowest level in 2012 - dropping into negative territory. That explains why Nation calculates the collective shortfall at CalPERS, the smaller California State Teachers Retirement System and a state university plan at half a trillion dollars - he assumes lower returns than do systems run by the state and cities like San Jose. It’s some consolation for California, perhaps, that the bill mounts slowly - and other states are in even worse shape. «The pension situation in California is by no means the worst,» said Douglas Offerman, an analyst at Fitch Ratings. «We rate California lower than we rate any other state. We do not rate it at that level because of its employee obligations.» GOOD TIMES, BAD TIMES The roots of the pension crisis can be traced to the 1990s, when CalPERS, flush with cash from the stock market boom, pushed state legislation to raise retiree benefits, including a retroactive bump for state employees. The 1999 law, adopted overwhelmingly by legislators on
both sides of the aisle, knocked five years off the retirement age for many workers, bumped up payments - or both. Every career government worker could quit at 50 or 55 with a solid, and sometimes lavish, pension. Because CalPERS also manages pensions for so many local governments, the law set off a bidding war across the state, with employees and their unions insisting on parity, or better, with neighboring jurisdictions. «That eventually washed its way down into local government, and by 2006 our public-safety employees had 90% retirement benefits at age 50,” Reed recalled. Half a century earlier a San Jose policeman had to work until age 55 to retire with half his pay. Stanford’s Nation did a rough calculation to figure out how much it would cost to get comparable retirement benefits in the private sector. «You’d have to start putting away half your salary, starting at 25,» he said. California, the most populous state, also has some of the most generous benefits in the country, says Alicia Mannell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. She is more optimistic than Nation about California’s next few years - she says the shortfall may shrink - but she agrees the state has blundered. «These plans get so expensive - California has the most expensive plan - that people are going to have to realize that if those commitments are fulfilled, then other things are not going to get done,» she said. Critics say a big part of the problem is a fundamental conflict of interest in the way the pension plans are governed. Pension fund boards are dominated by beneficiaries workers and retirees. A six-member minority of the 13-member CalPERS board represents workers and retirees. But the minority also holds the chairmanship, and the entire current board are CalPERS members, due to their state service. The directors of the nation’s largest public pension fund are not required to have financial backgrounds, either, although
June 6 - 12, 2012
FinancialMirror.com
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the fund says it gives training to the board. Beneficiaries have an incentive to keep the plans solvent, but with a state constitutional guarantee they can rest assured that their retirement benefits will get paid. Meantime, the board members, themselves beneficiaries, also have an incentive to make the benefits as rich as possible - and the CalPERS board has focused substantial energy on raising benefits and enforcing the state guarantee of payment. «The way pension systems have been run, to a certain extent, is legal corruption,» said Nation, explaining the conflict of interest inherent in systems run by beneficiaries rather than those who pay the bills. Brad Pacheco, a CalPERS spokesman, pointed out that directors elected by members were a minority and that the entire board had a fiduciary duty. «When they make a decision, it is not in self-interest but through the lens of how the decision will benefit or impact our members, employers and taxpayers,» Pacheco said. San Jose faced what it saw as a conflict of interest in 2010. That year it expanded and reformed its pension boards, giving independent citizens with financial backgrounds, approved by the city council, majorities on both. THE FIX Scores of city and state unions already have bargained to cut the pension load, generally by creating lower-benefit plans for new hires, Pacheco said. But that’s not going to ease the problem soon, economists say. The state and cities need to be able to cut benefits for current employees, concluded the state’s Little Hoover Commission, which is charged with creating realistic solutions for tough problems in the state. The commission recommended that state lawmakers point the way with legislation allowing contract changes that gave midcareer workers the benefits they had accrued but cut the level of benefits they would earn in the future - which unions say is not fair play. CalPERS has drawn a line in the sand, saying it will defend benefits, and there’s been no major challenge yet. The city of Vallejo went bankrupt in 2008 but agreed to pay its pension obligations in full. Proposals by financially hobbled cities to cut costs «may lead only to additional litigation and administrative costs,» CalPERS warned in a policy paper last year. San Diego is focusing on future employees, who will go on a 401(k)-style plan, which is common in the private sector, if voters approve the measure on Tuesday. That would transfer the risks and gains of rising and falling markets to workers. But San Diego is not aiming to change plans for police officers, who generally get the highest benefits and can retire earliest, and the change doesn’t affect current employees. San Diego’s plan represents the biggest fundamental change, while San Jose’s would be the highest-profile effort to get employees to pay more. It would change the rules for all current employees. It wants to let city employees choose between switching to a lower-benefit plan or paying substantially more to keep current benefits. San Jose’s retirement costs rose to $244 mln, or a quarter of its general fund budget in the fiscal year ending in June, and even with relatively optimistic investment return assumptions, the city expects retirement costs to hit $325 mln four years from now, unless voters pass Mayor Reed’s reform plan, known as Measure B. The stakes are high for employees: The police union calculates that the ballot measure and previous changes could leave an officer paying more than 40 percent of his salary for retirement, a figure the city describes as a worstcase scenario but does not dispute. San Jose Police Officers’ Association President Jim Unland thinks Mayor Reed is exaggerating the problem and is misleading voters about the legality of the plan. That said, Unland expects voters will trust their mayor and approve his plan. If that happens, the battle is sure to move to the courts, where Unland expects it to remain for years. «In the end, we’ll probably be right back where we are today,» the police union president said.
23
Hedge fund saga continues Gains that funds made on bets by JPMorgan whale may be limited JPMorgan Chase & Co’s losing bets in credit derivatives were so huge that one of its traders was known as “the London whale” and the hedge funds that attacked him have often been portrayed as harpooners who made a killing. But the story, it turns out, is more complicated than that. According to hedge fund managers and traders close to the struggle, the bank’s losses - more than $2 bln - may not lead to stunning returns for the funds that were on the other side of the transactions. At least some of the funds that ended up buying credit derivatives from JPMorgan were using them to reduce risk, not make outright bets on the market. Any gains that funds received from these positions would have been offset by losses elsewhere in their portfolios, as the stock market has plunged in recent weeks and corporate bonds have also weakened. Some investors did make outright bets that the credit picture would deteriorate, but many kept their positions small, because they feared being crushed by JPMorgan’s trading power. “I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of hedge fund portfolio managers buying Ferraris this year with profits from this trade,” one hedge fund manager said. Consider Saba Capital. The fund’s head, Boaz Weinstein, famously recommended at a presentation in February that investors use derivatives to bet against what is essentially a basket of corporate bonds, in what later emerged as the opposite of JPMorgan Chase’s trade. Recent press coverage of Weinstein’s strategy has suggested he made a mint. For example, the New York Post, in a story about his purchase of a $25.5 mln Manhattan apartment, reported that he had “profited wildly” from the trade. But the other half of Weinstein’s recommended trade was to buy equities, according to a person at the presentation in New York. Weinstein said that because the bet against the basket of corporate credit was so cheap, it could also be used as a hedge against other exposure, such as a portfolio of corporate bonds. Even if the bet against corporate bonds has performed well since the end of March, the bet on equities has likely weakened, because the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has fallen more than 7% so far this quarter, said the person familiar with the presentation. Saba declined to comment on Weinstein’s presentation, its performance or its trading positions. JPMorgan declined to comment. The hedge fund’s recommended trade would pay off if either corporate bonds and their associated derivatives weakened as the economy slowed, or equities got much stronger as the economy accelerated. With Europe’s debt difficulties intensifying and the U.S. recovery showing signs of sputtering, credit markets have weakened. The corporate credit index that Weinstein was betting against has moved more than 25% in his favor since the end of March, according to data from Markit, which could translate to much bigger gains than the losses from the equity portion of the trade. This has led to the JPMorgan loss, which some traders say could climb to as much as $5 billion once the trade is completely unwound over the next few months. The “London whale” - French trader Bruno Iksil - still works for the bank, though his long-term career there is obviously in question. Without knowing the size of the two parts of the trade, it is impossible to figure out how much the Saba fund gained. But its main fund is up only about 2% for the
year, according to an investor, which does not look like the performance of a fund that bet the farm on beating JPMorgan. That modest gain is a far cry from hedge fund manager John Paulson’s famous bets against the subprime mortgage markets that powered gains of about 600 percent for one of his funds in 2007.
BIG ANOMALY To be sure, some fund managers say they did make outright bets against JPMorgan or know managers who did. Those managers may end up making decent returns. But many investors took relatively small positions because they hesitated to face off against JPMorgan, which given its massive resources could clearly distort the market for some time. That timidity will also limit funds’ gains from the trade. “When you make a trade, you have to assume it can go against you before it goes for you, and you size your trade accordingly,” one credit hedge fund manager said. JPMorgan was using derivatives to essentially sell insurance against groups of credits defaulting. The bank’s position performs well if fears of corporate defaults start to abate, or at least hold steady. The bank does not seem to have cashed out of much of its position yet, if any, according to credit traders, meaning that so far it mainly has paper losses rather than realized losses. The funds on the other side -- those buying insurance against credit defaults -- believed they were getting a good deal. Because JPMorgan was selling so much credit protection, investors could buy insurance on one portfolio for about 21% less than the cost of insuring all the credits individually, making it a real opportunity for many investors to cheaply hedge. “We noticed that price discrepancy, because it was big,” said one New York hedge fund manager, who used the trade to hedge against credit risk in his portfolio. Some were betting that the price anomaly in the market would disappear. Dealers offered trades that allowed investors to bet that the discrepancy between the theoretical value of index and its actual value would go away, the credit hedge fund manager said. One of the portfolios of credits that JPMorgan bet on, known as the Markit CDX NA IG Series 9 index maturing in 2017, started trading at a big discount to its theoretical value last autumn. Trading volume in the index really jumped in January and February. Investors believe that around that time, JPMorgan allowed a trade that used the index to turn from disaster insurance into an outright bet on credit markets improving.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
24 | MARKETS
Gold ticks up ahead of G7
FOREX COMMENTARY / TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold inched up on Tuesday ahead of a Group of Seven conference call that will attempt to discuss measures to contain the euro zone debt crisis that has threatened to drag the global economy into a recession. Bullion rose more than 3% last week, when it broke its trend of trading in sync with riskier assets, but it slipped in New York on Monday after declines in U.S. equities forced speculators to cash in the metal to cover losses. “The market sentiment has turned a bit more bullish since we broke above the key $1,600 level on Friday, as investors may favour gold as a safe haven again after the bad U.S. data last week,” said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals in Hong Kong. Fung said gold has found a solid floor at the $1,530 level, and could look to test $1,680, or even $1,700. Spot gold gained $1.04 to $1,619.79 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained nearly half a percent to $1,621.60 an ounce. A revival of investor interest in gold was reflected in the holdings of goldbacked exchange-traded funds, which rose to 69.7 mln ounces by June 3 in a third straight day of gains, up from a four-month low of 69.4 mln ounces hit in late May. The holdings hit a record high of 70.89 mln ounces in mid-March. “Given the macro environment, we remain positive on gold. How gold responds to key events this month, such as the Greek election and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, will be pivotal in the metal reinstating its safe-haven appeal,” said Barclays Capital in a research note.
The euro extended gains to a one-week high on Tuesday as some sellers pared back their huge bets against the currency ahead of a conference call by the Group of Seven financial policy makers. Although market players remain sceptical of a major breakthrough given a lack of consensus within Europe on how to save Spanish banks among other things, there was caution in case the meeting does lead to some kind of agreement between policymakers, given the record short positions on the euro. The euro rose to as high as $1.25429, its highest in a week, extending its rebound from a two-year low of $1.2288 reached on Friday. It last stood at $1.2530, up 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels. On the daily Ichimoku chart, the euro rose substantially above tenkan line, for the first time in about a month and if it closes above that level, at $1.24565, on Tuesday, it could herald further recovery in the battered currency.
Shanghai copper recovers Shanghai copper rose on Tuesday after hitting its lowest level this year in the previous session, buoyed by hopes that G7 policymakers will take action to ease the euro zone debt crisis. The most-active September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.3% to 53,470 yuan ($8,400) a tonne, after hitting a 2012 low of 52,330 yuan on Monday. The COMEX benchmark July contract moved up 0.7% to $3.3310 per lb ($7,343.58 a tonne). London copper was not traded as the London Metals Exchange is closed for a public holiday on Tuesday. Another Shanghai-based trader said copper was rebounding after Monday's drop in prices. In the United States, where gloomy jobs data helped trigger a commodities rout on Monday, April data showed that demand slipped for everything from cars and machinery to computers for the third time in four months, the latest worrisome sign for the world's largest economy. Some traders, however, said the disappointing data may nudge politicians to embark on measures to stimulate their economies.
The immediate hurdle for the euro is resistance at $1.2545, a 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its decline last week while another resistance is looming at $1.2570, a 23.6 percent retracement of its longer term decline from February high of $1.34869. Against the yen, the single currency also rose 0.3 percent to 98.22 yen, bouncing off Friday’s 11-year low of 95.59 yen. The G7 news was enough to prompt some euro bears to take profits as the market is extremely short on the euro. The data from U.S. financial watchdog showed speculators’ net euro short position stood at a record high last week.
Brent rebounds above $99 Brent crude prices rebounded for a second straight session on Tuesday, rising above $99 per barrel on support from a weaker dollar and hopes that the world’s leading economies will take new action to tackle the euro zone’s debt crisis. Brent crude for July delivery rose 37 cents to $99.22 a barrel, adding to a 42 cent gain in the previous session. Prices on Monday briefly hit a 16 month low of $95.63 before recovering. U.S. crude rose 65 cents to $84.63 a barrel. The darkening outlook over the world economy and its potential impact on global crude demand has taken the spotlight from lingering tensions between Iran and Western powers, which just three months ago helped push Brent to above $128. “The softening of the oil price at the moment is a reflection of geopolitical issues being less dominant and lower demand coming into the picture,” Shell CEO Peter Voser told reporters at the World Gas Conference in Kuala Lumpur. He expected oil prices to weaken further in the second half of this year due to slowing demand. Traders will also be awaiting the release of this week’s U.S. crude stocks data. Crude inventories in the world’s top oil consumer likely fell last week after ten straight weeks of builds, due to lower imports.
France and the European Commission also signaled their support on Monday for an ambitious plan to directly use the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund to rescue stricken banks. But Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy and the biggest contributor to the European Stability Mechanism, has so far opposed any use of bailout funds without a country having to submit to a politically humiliating austerity programme imposed by international lenders. As any agreements on a rescue deal on Spanish banks are likely to need more time, some market players see an outside chance of quicker action from the European Central Bank to support growth at its policy meeting on Wednesday, such as a rate cut or a massive injection of funds.
Weekly Economic Calendar Date Country Detail JUN 6 GBP Construction PMI due 11.30am JUN 6 EUR German Industrial Production M/M JUN 6 EUR Revised GDP growth Q/Q due 12.00noon JUN 6 EUR ECB Minimum Bid rate decision due 2.45pm JUN 6 EUR ECB President Mario Draghi press conf starting 3.30pm JUN 6 US Revised Nonfarm productivity Q/Q due 3.30pm JUN 7 AUD Austrialia Unemployment Rate due 4.30am JUN 7 CHF Swiss Unemployment Rate due 8.45am JUN 7 EUR Spanish 10-year Bond auction JUN 7 EUR French 10-year Bond auction JUN 7 GBP BoE Rate decision, asset purchase facility due 2.00pm JUN 7 US Weekly Unemployment Claims due 3.30pm JUN 7 US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies starting 5.00pm JUN 7 US Consumer Credit M/M due 10.00pm JUN 8 AUD Trade Balance due 4.30am in AUD JUN 8 EUR German Trade Balance due 9.00am in EUR JUN 8 EUR French Trade Balance due 9.45am in EUR JUN 8 CAD Trade Balance due 3.30pm in CAD JUN 8 CAD Unemployment Rate due 3.30pm JUN 8 US Trade Balance due 3.30pm JUN 8 US Wholesale Inventories M/M due 5.00pm Indicated times are Cyprus time
Forecast Previous 54.7 55.8 -0.90% 2.80% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% -0.60% -0.50% 5.10% 4.90% 3.20% 3.10% 325B 325B 385k 383k 10.6B 21.4B -0.92B -1.59B 13.1B 13.7B -5.6B -5.7B 0.4B 7.30% -$49.3B -$51.8B 0.50% 0.30% Source: Eurivex
Some market players speculate that ECB President Mario Draghi may try to take pre-emptive moves to surprise markets, as he did last year just after he took over the helm at the bank. Disclaimer The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
MARKETS | 25
The Swiss Line In The Sand As the euro sell-off progresses, many are wondering whether Switzerland will be able to maintain its floor on the EUR/CHF exchange rate to a minimum rate of 1.20, according to Marcuard's Market update by GaveKal Researc h. The currency had rallied to 1.03 against the euro in August of last year, well above the 2007 low of 1.68, before the Swiss central bank began aggressively intervening to halt its rise. After its fire-power pushed the level down, the SNB then locked in the 1.20 rate with its floor announcement on September 6. It has held since. If the Swiss stood down now, in the midst of a euro panic, then the country would be inundated with inflows. As such, there is not much that could make the SNB waver. The weak spots to watch for are: If inflation became a significant problem--right now this does not seem to be an issue. Indeed, the pace of money-supply growth has slowed since the intervention (though it’s still running at some 9%), and the latest CPI reading was negative. But of course, this could perhaps be because most of the inflation is taking place on assets (house prices were up a further 5% in 1Q12) and services (check out the price of hiring a baby-sitter for the evening!) rather than goods (which will likely continue to deflate as euroland growth slows down). If German short-term government yields moved into and stayed in negative territory. It is likely that, in its intervention, the SNB is buying mostly bunds to avoid any signature risk. However, if bund yields remained for a long time in negative territory, then the SNB would be faced with a dilemma: take the loss that buying negative yield bonds implies and/or take signature risk on countries like France, Holland, etc. If the euro were to break up, then the question would of course be raised as to what the CHF is pegged to... Assuming one believes in the sustainability of the euro, then it seems a safe bet that the CHF floor will be maintained. On our side, we tend to think that the euro project will soon die, with southern European countries pulling the plug. However it is likely that something called “the euro” will be maintained and that it will encompass Germany. If that is the case, I would imagine that the Swiss floor would still remain. Why are investors willing to accept negative rates in Switzerland? Simply put, this is the price they are willing to pay for perceived safety. We are also seeing the same negative-yield phenomenon in Denmark. In this case, though, investors are likely also making a direct bet that the euro-pegged Danish krone will align with a northern-bloc euro if the current-form EMU breaks. Perhaps investors looking for non-euro options in Europe would do better heading for the Swedish krona. This “riskon/risk-off” unit has sold off in recent weeks. But when a boat goes down, investors will grab whatever floats by as a life-raft. And with the SEK being undervalued, unpegged and underpinned by superior growth rate vs EMU, this investment could prove buoyant in an emergency—or at least in the long run. The Unfolding Panic & The European Convergence Trade The economist AC Pigou once remarked that “Prosperity ends in a crisis. The error of optimism dies in the crisis; but in dying, it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not as an infant but as a giant.” The creation of the euro was an “error of optimism” writ large (either that or a seriously evil attempt by European policymakers to thrust federalism onto a population that did not want it). And this error of optimism has definitely engendered a error of pessimism of gargantuan proportions. We are now facing a massive financial panic with Europe at the epicenter (and recent poor US and China data adding to the jitters). Everywhere we hear dire warnings that a euro break-up will led to a crisis far worse than the one triggered by Lehman’s bankruptcy. How else can we explain German two-year bond yields at 0.10%? In fact, we are not so sure that a euro breakup would be as disastrous as 2008. And though we have long advocated a European divergence trade, we now think the big structural trade of the future is one of convergence in rates between Germany and the troubled EMU nations. * While the 2008 crisis is often referred to as the Lehman bust, it was not just Lehman hitting the wall, but practically the entire Western financial industry. Citigroup needed a massive government recap, AIG was basically nationalized, as was
cash flow generators. Historically, these have been governments. But today, it is companies whose profits and revenues are increasingly global in nature and thus harder for governments to grasp. Given all of the above, running for the safety of overvalued, overbought and over-owned government bonds seems dangerous. Instead, we should look for the opportunities that the current panic is creating. This implies making assumptions about the future; and the simplest assumption is that the euro will not survive in its current form. Basically, either the euro will break up, at which point the Bundesbank will be left carrying the can for ?645bn (its credit position in target 2) and the German banking system for another ?500bn, and possibly as much as ?1trn. In other words, Germany will be bust. Or the euro does not break, but at this stage that can only happen once Germany or the ECB promises to underwrite a massive program of bank guarantees they can ill-afford. At which point, southern European long rates collapse and banks rally like crazy. Either way, the conclusion is now simple: German bunds were a terrific protection for portfolios as long as no one believed in the demise of the euro. But now that the demise of the euro has become consensus, then we either have to go through the motions of a break-up, which means a bust German banking system, a bust Bundesbank, and a bust German bond market—or embrace federalism which de facto implies a massive convergence of European interest rates. Hence, one way to reduce portfolio risks, yet retain upside exposure, would be to buy some 20-year Portuguese zeros, some Italian banks and the perpetual bonds of European banks. To make it simple: this is no longer the time to play the divergence in European interest rates (which is what piling into bunds amounts to). This was the trade to put on five years ago. That trade is now really long in the tooth. Investors now piling into German bunds are doing what they should have done five years ago, and doing so precisely at the worst possible time, when Germany itself is likely to evolve from being a haven to a problem in its own right. www.marcuardheritage.com
almost half the British banking system, etc. Today, a number of banks once again find themselves in a precarious position (or how else could we explain the depth that the Eurostoxx bank index keeps plunging too, now at a post 1987 low!). However, most banks are no longer running the kind of leverage typical in 2008 (i.e., 50+x geared!); a reality which should hopefully make for fewer fire-sales of viable assets. * In 2008 most companies were not only unprepared but had been in expansion mode. As a result, when the financing markets dried up, a number of blue-chip companies such as General Electric found themselves scrambling for cash. Some, like General Motors, even went bust (which did little for confidence!). Today, the situation is very different with companies sitting on large cash-piles, having slashed expenses and hiring to the barebones. In fact, aside from industries
catering to China’s fixed asset investment boom (steel, cement, glass…), it is today hard to identify areas of excess capital spending. While the background is dramatically different from that which prevailed in 2009, our working assumptions should probably be that a) the southern European bank run now under way worsens until some kind of pan-European bank guarantee is offered (and this may not happen until we witness a Greece exit). As a result, b) growth in Europe becomes more disjointed ensuring that c) markets remain on edge. In turn, this begs the question as to whether investors should just keep riding current trends hard, at least until a major policy-change materialises? This strikes us as dangerous for the following reasons: * The valuation gap between high quality government bonds and equities has seldom been this large. * We know that no-one who kept government bonds in the previous three instances of panics made any money for years afterwards. Historically, these panics are opportunities to sell bonds and buy stocks. The tough thing, of course, is the timing as you can lose a lot of money in two or three weeks of panic… * At the end of the day, in a panic, one wants to own positive
WEALTH MANAGEMENT ZURICH LIMASSOL MOSCOW SINGAPORE LONDON
Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.
The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates
LIBOR rates
CCY USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
0-0,25% 0.50% 1.00% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%
Swap Rates
CCY/Period
1mth
2mth
3mth
6mth
1yr
CCY/Period
2yr
3yr
4yr
5yr
7yr
10yr
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
0.24 0.67 0.33 0.14 0.04
0.35 0.79 0.42 0.16 0.07
0.47 0.99 0.59 0.20 0.10
0.74 1.31 0.90 0.34 0.18
1.07 1.84 1.22 0.55 0.39
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
0.63 1.12 0.85 0.35 0.04
0.69 1.16 0.90 0.31 0.09
0.84 1.19 1.04 0.33 0.17
1.01 1.31 1.18 0.43 0.29
1.38 1.57 1.43 0.52 0.56
1.75 1.99 1.68 0.87 0.88
Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY
Opening Rates
100 1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF JPY 1.2512 0.7992
1.5388
1.0418
1.2749
1.2299
0.8326
1.0189
0.6770
0.8285
0.6499
0.8131
0.9599
1.2010
1.4771
78.44
98.14
120.70
1.2237 81.72
Weekly movement of USD
CCY\Date
08.05
15.05
22.05
29.05
05.06
CCY
Today
USD GBP JPY CHF
1.2995
1.2792
1.2748
1.2501
1.2487
0.8035
0.7949
0.8063
0.7976
0.8111
103.84
102.05
101.11
99.24
97.74
1.1964
1.1962
1.1961
1.1972
1.1964
GBP EUR JPY CHF
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FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
26 | WORLD MARKETS
The Transparency Directive The Danish Presidency seeks administrative relief for EU listed companies The administrative burdens on listed companies are being reduced in order to make it easier for businesses to raise capital and contribute to growth and employment in the EU, according to changes to the so called Transparency Directive. The Danish Presidency is leading negotiations of the Directive, and has just received a mandate in the Council of Ministers to begin negotiations with the European Parliament. The Transparency Directive sets common EU rules over what information listed companies shall make public. The Danish Presidency is leading negotiations on the Directive, and has just received a mandate in the Council of Ministers to begin negotiations with the European Parliament. The agreement in Council is primarily intended to reduce the administrative burdens by removing a number of information requirements, including for example the requirement to publish quarterly reports. Removing the requirement for quarterly reports will par-
ticularly make it easier for small and medium sized businesses to access new capital and implement investments, which can support economic development in the EU. Listed companies will continue to be able to choose to publish quarterly reports. The rules aim to strike the right balance between investors’ need for information, and not placing unnecessary administrative burdens on firms. Although the general objective is to reduce administrative burdens, information requirements are also being strengthened in certain areas. Investors will as a result have to disclose to a greater extent than today their ownership of potential shares in listed companies, so that socalled hidden ownership can be avoided. This will increase transparency in the market to the benefit of investors. “I am very satisfied that the Presidency has reached a balanced agreement to strengthen the information requirements which apply to shares in listed companies, but that we are removing requirements for quarterly reports on the other
hand,” said Margrethe Vestager, Minister for Economic Affairs and the Interior. “In this way we restrict information requirements to the core issues, but at the same time removing some of the administrative burdens for businesses.” “It is a positive step that the new rules will reduce the administrative burdens for businesses. Overall, the rules will make it more attractive to be a listed company. This will support businesses’ ability to raise capital and contribute to growth and employment in the EU,” added the Minister of Business and Growth, Ole Sohn. The new rules also create a common framework in all Member States for administrative sanctions in relation to issuers and investors who contravene the rules, so for example, there will not be as great a difference in the size of fines in the future as there is today. The Danish Presidency will now wait for the European Parliament to take its position on the proposal, before commencing negotiations over the final rules in this area.
LOT still an acquisition candidate Polish officials have indicated two new potential investors for the national carrier, LOT: Turkish Airlines (THY) and Air China (CCA). For these investors, the main attraction of LOT is the opportunity to establish a Central / Eastern European hub in Warsaw, according to Monika Trappmann, an industry analyst for the aerospace and defence market at the global consultancy Frost & Sullivan. THY and CCA are both financially strong and fast growing carriers in their respective geographies. In addition, both have the capacity and willingness to invest and develop their operations further. Nevertheless, being non-EU investors, neither THY nor CCA would be able to have a controlling stake in LOT, Trappmann said. THY has evolved into a major player in European and Middle Eastern aviation markets. In recent years it has focused on growth, though it has managed to restructure much of its operations to reduce operating costs. With their base at Istanbul, THY is looking to further expand in European markets and connect to the Middle East and Asia. The Turkish carrier is no stranger to acquisitions, explained Trappmann, even though of much smaller scale. They hold a stake in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s BH Airlines as well as in airlines within Turkey (Anadolu and Sun Express).
Effectively, LOT would be their first large acquisition, which may pose a challenge. “Air China might be a more appealing partner, as Warsaw could become a major European hub connecting to Asian markets,” the aviation industry expert said. Air China has a vast network of routes within China and great links to Japan and other Asian markets; thereby supporting LOT’s expansion in Asia and deploying their orders for long-haul B787 aircraft in those routes.
However, Air China has never engaged in acquisitions outside China and Hong Kong. Moreover, the business culture of a Chinese company is vastly different to Poland and this could be a major impediment to closer cooperation. THY and CCA are not the only possible investors for LOT. Although the government has not revealed details of other suitors, Frost & Sullivan has identified three possible partners: Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and Singapore Airlines. Etihad have already invested in Air Berlin and increased their stake to 29%, as well as owning 3% in Aer Lingus and 40% in Air Seychelles. They have experience in being a minority investor in European airlines and have the financial base to acquire larger carriers. It would not be surprising if they showed interest in LOT. However this move might not be immediate, following their recent investment in Air Berlin. Qatar Airways is another Middle Eastern carrier in a strong financial position, but has no acquisition experience. Nonetheless, the most interesting partner Frost & Sullivan identified would be Singapore Airlines. Like THY and Air China they are in the Star Alliance with LOT. They also have European interests with a 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic. As the current focus is to expand feeder services for their long-haul network, an airline with a good route network in Europe could be considered.
F1 joins others in hitting IPO brakes Motor sport racing company Formula One has delayed its Singapore initial public offer worth up to $3 bln, the fifth big Asian IPO to be postponed or pulled in a week, as weak markets bring the global market for new listings to a shuddering halt. Worldwide, money raised from stock market flotations has slumped 46% so far this year compared with the same period of 2011, with investors wary of the euro zone crisis, China's economic slowdown and last month's botched Facebook IPO. Formula One, which planned to list in Singapore, has become the latest issuer to hit the brakes, dropping plans to file its IPO prospectus with Singapore regulators this week. But Bernie Ecclestone, the sport's boss and a part-owner of the company, said in an interview with Reuters that Formula One was biding its time, not scrapping the IPO altogether, and that its bankers would continue to meet prospective investors. On Thursday, London luxury jeweller Graff Diamonds ditched its $1 bln IPO in Hong Kong, Asia's IPO capital, which along with the U.S. has seen a slump in initial offers. Deal vol-
umes in Hong Kong have dived 85% so far in 2012. In the U.S., 12 IPOs were pulled or delayed in May. Facebook has contributed to the chill in the American IPO market. In just 10 trading sessions, shares in the social networking phenomenon have tumbled from an initial price of $38 each to $29.60, offering a stark warning to any company on the fence about entering the public markets. Excluding Facebook, 72 U.S.-listed companies have filed so far this year, raising proceeds of $13.1 bln, a 53% decrease from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data. CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE This month, both Georgia's state railways monopoly and Russian real estate investor O1 Properties pulled planned London listings, blaming volatile markets as uncertainty over the future of Greece deterred investors from taking the risk of putting money into IPOs and emerging markets. For now, though, some companies continue to press ahead
with offerings in Asia. Malaysia launched the biggest Asian IPO to hit the road so far this year: a $3 bln offer in Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd, the world's third-largest palm plantation operator. It is preparing for a market debut on June 28. Felda is not expected to suffer the same fate as Graff. Socalled cornerstone investors are taking about two-thirds of the shares, and the Malaysian government is using the sale to deliver a windfall of more the $500 mln to tens of thousands of landholders ahead of an expected election. Also in Malaysia, state investor Khazanah Nasional plans to raise up to $2 bln in an initial offer of shares in IHH Healthcare Bhd, which aims to list in Malaysia and Singapore in July. The biggest IPO still in the Asian pipeline is Chinese stateowned insurer PICC Group, which plans to raise up to $6 bln in a Hong Kong-Shanghai dual listing. Meanwhile, Spain's Telefonica said it would list its German unit, in a move to cut debt and potentially free up capital for dealmaking.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
WORLD MARKETS | 27
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
28 | WORLD MARKETS
Downturn puts investors, companies in retreat
Grippe d by fears th at Europe's debt c ris is is drivin g th e world e cono my into a ditch, companies are delaying plans to raise capital a nd can cellin g de als, while investors are taking re fuge in cas h o r any othe r pla c e they think the ir mon ey will be s afe .
The retreat has been so acute that yields on German twoyear bonds have gone negative, meaning investors have become so wary of losses elsewhere that they are willing to pay for the privilege of lending money to the German government. Stocks and commodities have been hammered. And with the economic picture dimming in the United States and major developing economies, including Brazil, India and China, brave is the major corporation willing to take on new workers. The pace of hiring in the U.S. in May was the slowest in a year. "What we're seeing is a sharp deterioration in economies worldwide. It's a very unstable situation. Markets are being driven by fear, and they're tougher to call than ever," sa id Gregory Whiteley, who helps manage $35 bln at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles. The scariest part is this: the tighter people batten down the hatches, the worse things can get. Slower growth will worsen government budget deficits as tax revenue dries up in the United States and Japan, while making it all but impossible for indebted European countries such as Spain, Ireland or Italy to grow their way back to health. If activity slows enough, large swathes of the world could tumble back into recession less than four years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the global financial crisis and brought many nations to edge of a precipice. The grim outlook has already toppled a series of European political leaders in the past two years and is compromising U.S. President Barack Obama's chances of winning reelection in November. With the jobless rate soaring in some European countries, the risk of widespread social unrest has increased. And this time around, with interest rates in the developed world pinned down near zero, and stressed budgets leaving less room or appetite for stimulus spending, there isn't so much that governments and central banks can do to help. HIGH STAKES IN EUROPE Europe tops the list of concerns for now. If Greece leaves the euro zone after an election set for June 17, many fear it could spark bank runs in Spain, freeze credit worldwide and maybe even spell the end for the euro. Finance officials from the Group of Seven most developed powers will hold emergency talks on the euro zone debt crisis on Tuesday, which some analysts see as an attempt to pressure Germany into supporting European banks and stimulating the region's economy. "The top concern is really one word -- contagion," said King Lip, chief investment officer at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco, adding he had cut clients' Europe exposure to 10% to 15%, about half of typical holdings. "If something happens in Greece, it could cause a credit freeze across Europe, and people are concerned that what's going on in Europe is going to cross the pond." In most cases, EU officials are working on proposals that could take months and years to put in place, including Germany's push for a closer European fiscal union. But those with money -- whether a depositor with a modest account at a Spanish bank or a giant fund with billions of dollars at stake -are demanding action in days. That is what worries many in the market. If Greece quits, "the Europeans will have to do extraordinary things to avoid contagion of the sort that could knock out Ireland, Spain and Portugal pretty quickly," said Gabriel de Kock, director of FX research at Morgan Stanley. "If you make the wrong decisions, you don't get a do-over. And the Europeans have made a lot of mistakes over the past two years." COMPANIES SAYING "NO DEAL" Those fears have blistered stock markets, erasing the Dow industrials' gains for the year, while European stocks hit fivemonth lows, having shed some 15% from their March peak, and Hong Kong stocks on Monday fell to their lowest level of 2012.
Another troubling sign: commodity prices have plunged, signaling real concerns about the strength of demand from manufacturers and construction companies in China and elsewhere. Brent July crude oil touched a 16-month low of $95.63 a barrel on Monday after dropping more than $30 from its post2008 peak of $128.40 at the beginning of March. Meanwhile, copper, which is used in many industrial and building products, has touched low for this year. Instead, investors have poured money into debt issued by the most credit-worthy governments, including the U.S., Germany and Britain. That drove the yield on benchmark 10year U.S. Treasuries to record lows beneath 1.50% at the end of last week.
That is a problem for some small nations, such as Switzerland and Denmark, as the flood of money has lifted the value of their currencies to a point where they fear their exports will become uncompetitive. Elsewhere, companies far beyond Europe's borders are delaying deals. On Monday, Australia's Brambles, the world's biggest pallet supplier, scrapped the sale of its information management business because of low offers. At least five large Asian initial public offers of shares were postponed or pulled last week, including the $3 bln Singapore listing of motor sport racing company Formula One. "Financing markets have certainly choked up over the last few weeks," said a senior private equity executive in New York. "The Europe thing is scaring people. I don't see that folks see what the end game is here, and until that settles down a little bit, it's going to be very, very tough out there." Added another senior Wall Street deal maker: "It takes so little anymore to give people pause that when you combine JPMorgan, Spain and Greece, the Facebook IPO, and the U.S. economy (going) down, the Chinese economy (going) down ... it's a lot of red." Small hedge funds are increasingly throwing in the towel in Asia as they struggle to attract money from risk-wary investors. The latest to quit is former Lehman Brothers trader Allan Bedwick, who is shutting his $120 mln Asia-based fund after giving it a two-and-half-year run, fund documents obtained by Reuters showed. Raising money has also grown tougher for global companies, with equity, bond and loan markets becoming prohibitively expensive for all but the highest-quality corporate borrowers. According to IFR data, volume in the U.S. investment grade bond market has dwindled from $284.8 bln in the first quarter to just $118.7 bln in April and May. If things get worse, emerging markets in particular will be most affected, as they were following Lehman's 2008 demise. "FRAGILE SENSE OF CONFIDENCE" Against such a backdrop, it's little surprise that U.S. companies have grown skittish about adding new workers. The U.S.
economy created just 69,000 new jobs in May, its worst showing in a year, while the jobless rate rose. The biggest U.S. phone company by revenue, AT&T, is not seeing many jobs being created by either its big or its small corporate clients. "We are not seeing any hiring in the upper end of business in the U.S.," said CEO Randall Stephenson at an investor conference in New York on Friday. "People aren't hiring a lot in the U.S," he said. Even with its rate of growth slowing to 1.9% in the first quarter, the U.S. economy is more robust than many in Europe that are on the verge of or already in recession. Some say that means there's still hope. "Every time I speak to other CEOs, who don't necessarily make cars, there's no indication of the fact that the economy here in the United States is at all coming to a grinding halt," said Sergio Marchionne, head of No. 3 U.S. automaker Chrysler Group LLC. But the outlook for hiring still looks gloomy. Anxiety about the upcoming U.S. elections is another reason, particularly since tax increases and spending cuts planned for next year could send the U.S. economy into recession unless politicians pull back from what markets have termed the "fiscal cliff." "It's nervousness about the election and regulation and taxes," said Scot Melland, CEO of Dice Holdings, which runs websites that recruit technology and finance workers. "It's uncertainty about what the business environment is going to be like." CENTRAL BANKS TO THE RESCUE? In the past few years, central banks have come to the rescue when markets were turning downward - first by slashing interest rates to record lows and then by flooding the financial system with money. But it's not clear they can stage a repeat performance. The European Central Bank briefly stabilized markets earlier this year by offering more than 1 trln euros in cheap loans to European banks, but is not likely to take new steps this week. Investors are starting to expect the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has already pumped more than $2 trln into the financial system through purchases of government and mortgage bonds, to do more when it meets later in June. But not everyone thinks throwing more money at the problem will do much good. "The Fed is always saying it has a range of tools at its disposal, but the fact is, they don't have too many," said DoubleLine Capital's Whiteley. "It can buy bonds, but that's about it. And it's not clear to me that's going to have much impact on the economy." That has left some investors hoping China can save the day with a repeat of 2009's 4 trln yuan stimulus package. They may be in for a surprise. With the Chinese economy slowing, some economists fear Beijing can ill afford to run up more debt. "Not only is the policy room smaller, but the incentives for the government to produce a large stimulus package are smaller," said Qinwei Wang, a China economist at Capital Economics in London. Perhaps the best indication of how worried people are rests with veteran investors like Donald Gimbel, a senior managing director at New York-based Carret Asset Management. Concern about Europe has prompted him to spend the first five months of the year increasing the cash position of the firm's $1.6 bln under management, taking it from 2% to about 15% by May - the highest since 2008. In the past, Gimbel, 70, said that he would have started using all that cash to scoop up potential bargains in equity markets. But this time, he said he was prepared to wait for solid evidence of progress in Europe before coming off the sidelines. "I'm more patient now than I was 20 years ago," he said. "If you try to catch a falling knife, the only thing that happens is you get blood on your hands."
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
GREECE | 29
Alexis Tsipras: Changing the Euro Zone Th e rece nt Greek elections , which saw the ris e of Alex is Tsipras a nd his Syriz a party, initiate d a tide of chan ge in Gre ek politics an d in th e Eu ro zon e fin ancial c ris is. The recent Greek elections, which saw the rise of Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party, initiated a tide of change in Greek politics and in the Euro zone financial crisis. Who would have thought that a career student protester from Greece would be the one to challenge the entire decision making structure of the Euro zone? Those who at first dismissed the threats and bluster of Alexis to lead Greece out of the Euro zone may one day have to concede that Alexis’s challenge to Angela Merkel and her polices has been one of the most effective negotiating strategies to date. Whether his Syriza party comes first, second or third in the second round of the Greek elections, Alexis has made a difference where others have failed. The Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti, has found that neither his economics nor his Latin charm have been able to coax Mrs Merkel to change her policies. Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission has made numerous proposals to lighten the Euro zone’s austerity, to no avail. The new French president has promised to confront Merkel on her growth (or lack of it) policies – and so he has. Little action has been forthcoming. As unlikely as it may have seemed at one time, it is probably Alexis’ threat to tear up previous understandings between Greece and the Euro zone that may have the greatest impact.
to watch out for, is the one who does not care about consequences. Crazy drivers are the most dangerous of all. Crazy or not, Alexis’ surprise electoral success and the prospect this has raised of a Greek exit seems to have triggered a number of developments which have significantly increased the pressure for change. Since the Greek elections, millions of Euros seeking a safe haven are flowing out from banks in the peripheral countries. Borrowing costs for Spain and Italy in the international markets have risen once again to danger levels. Share markets around the world have plunged wiping out all the gains of the previous quarter. Manufacturing in the Euro zone, including Germany, has fallen and business confidence has dropped. The exchange rate of the Euro itself has fallen below 1.24 to the dollar.
The biggest change has been in the rhetoric of Euro zone officials. Some that would calmly dismiss talk of a euro break-up now speak quite differently. Following the first Greek elections, a note of anxiety , even panic, characterizes their statements. Mr. Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, has openly said that the structure of the currency union has become “unsustainable unless further steps are taken”. Jose Manuel Barroso, has dared to raise once more the subject of Euro bonds, something which Angela Merkel has repeatedly rejected. Olli Rehn, Economics Commissioner, now says that “the way things are going the Euro zone has a significant risk of breaking up”. Even Mrs Merkel cannot not help but notice that she is increasingly isolated. Her own council of economic advisors, while not mentioning the dreaded and often rejected subject of Euro bonds, has put forward a form of debt-sharing in the form of a debt redemption fund. It does not feature Euro bonds as commonly defined. Nor has it been accepted, but it is definitely a step beyond Angela Merkel’s previous red lines. Hopefully these pressures for change will be sufficient to see that Greece remains in the Euro zone, at least for the short term. This would at least provide time for longer term planning.
A MATTER OF STYLE Alexis’ style is something not often witnessed in diplomatic circles. He flatly rejects Greece’s previous commitments to the Euro zone. He has promised to end existing contracts and to “permanently lock up the old powers in the closet”. Hundreds of thousands of Greeks voted for him. Previous Greek administrations fumed and protested against the demands of the Euro zone leaders. But at the end of the day – they had to toe the line. They had to put aside their anger and frustration when considering the consequences of not doing so. Things began to change when Alexis entered the scene. Euro zone negotiations, based on assumptions of rationality, had to be amended. The dangerous driver, the one you have
CHANGE IN THE AIR Someone had said that “the prospect of hanging concentrates the mind wonderfully”. The realistic prospect that Greece may leave the Euro following the electoral success of Tsipras seems to have had such an effect. Both sides, the Greek electorate on the one hand and the Euro zone decision makers on the other, have looked into the abyss of a Greek exit and taken a step back. On the side of the Greek electorate, recent polls for the June 17 elections indicate a small but significant shift. The percentage of votes predicted for New Democracy has risen. Syriza’s share has also risen but it seems that the votes going to the two pro-bailout, pro Euro, parties may now be just enough to put together a new government that will support Greek commitments to the Euro zone.
CYPRUS A report recently published by European Commission confirms that, for the present, the austerity policy of the Euro zone remains little changed. A message sent to member Euro zone countries, including Cyprus, urges them to “tighten their belts”. As summarized by the Financial Times (31.05.2012), the report of the European Commission states that Cyprus “may be the next country to need a bail out”. Furthermore, the European Commission asks Cyprus “ to introduce spending cuts this year , to reduce its deficit, increase the state retirement age and bear down on the public sector pay by reforming allowances”. But note that the President of Cyprus has indicated he is not overly worried about the nation’s deficit. Ah well, were OK then.
Dr. JIM LEONTIADES
Cyprus International Institute of Management
German banks ready for all options German regulator Bafin said moves to create a banking union in Europe are premature, as policy makers grapple with ideas to calm down markets roiled by the prospect of an exit of Greece from the euro zone and worries over Spanish debt levels. Elke Koenig who took over as Bafin president at the start of the year, urged policy makers to take a medium-term view in discussions about moving toward a banking union, a topic which will be discussed by the European Commission on Wednesday. “You must approach this step-by-step,” Koenig said in a speech at the watchdog’s annual news conference, stressing that her position was not contradictory to the view taken by her political masters in Berlin, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Chancellor Angela Merkel. “A lot has been written and said about the topic of a banking union in the last few days. For me, this belongs under the subject of a fiscal union,” she said. “Should you not first wait to see if the agreed steps have an effect before launching the next idea?” Germany has balked at signing up to a single European
scheme that could see it shoulder the costs of a bank collapse in another country, and Britain fiercely resists any attempt by Brussels to impose EU controls over financial services, which account for almost a tenth of its economy. Bafin said it viewed the German banking system as relatively robust, even if it could not fully shield itself from the current environment. “I won’t join speculation about Greece’s future financial policy but I am certain that Germany’s banks are now prepared for all possible scenarios,” Koenig said. German lenders have limited direct exposure to Greece although it remains difficult to foresee what knock-on effects a Greek exit from the euro could have on other states, Bafin said. “Greece is a one-off case and you should not compare the problems Greece is facing with others in the periphery,” Koenig said in response to a journalist’s question, pointing out that Spain was suffering the effects of a burst real estate bubble rather than the structural indebtedness seen in Greece.
1-in-3 chance of Greece leaving euro Credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s said on Monday that it sees “at least” a onein-three chance of Greece exiting the euro zone in the coming months, an outcome which could lead the financially fragile country to another sovereign default. “This could be brought about by Greece rejecting the reforms demanded by the troika … and a consequent suspension of external financial support,” S&P said in a new report. “Such an outcome would, in our view, seriously damage Greece’s economy and fiscal position in the medium term and most likely lead to another Greek sovereign default,” it said. But the impact of a Greek exit on other fiscally weak euro zone countries could be less clear cut, S&P said, with other sovereigns unlikely to follow Greece out of the monetary union.
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
30 | CSE PRICES CSE CODE OASIS Index performance CSE General Index FTSE/CySE 20 FTSE/XA & XAK Banking MAIN MARKET MAIN MARKET INDEX BANK OF CYPRUS CYPRUS POPULAR BANK HELLENIC BANK LOGICOM LOUIS LTD A. TSOKKOS HOTELS ORPHANIDES SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO PARALLEL MARKET PARALLEL MARKET INDEX WOOLWORTH (CYPRUS) PROP VASSILIKO CEMENT ERMES DEPARTMENT STORES A&P (ANDREOU&PARASKEV.) MARFIN CLR PUBLIC CO A. ZORBAS & SONS K. ATHIENITIS CONTR. - DEV. G.A.P VASSILOPOULOS KANIKA HOTELS MITSIDES LIBERTY LIFE INSURANCE PHIL. ANDREOU LORDOS HOTELS HOLDINGS LORDOS UNITED PLASTIC SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO ALTERNATIVE MARKET ALTERNATIVE INDEX A. PANAYIDES CONTRACTING AD SHOPPING GALLERIES ALKIS HADJ. (FROU-FROU) A.L. PROCHOICE FIN. SERV. AMATHUS PUBLIC LTD ASTARTI DEVELOPMENT ATLANTIC INSURANCE AVACOM PUBLIC CO. LTD. BLUE ISLAND FISH FARMING CCC TOURIST ENT. CHARILAOS APOSTOLIDES CHRIS JOANNOU LTD CLARIDGE INVESTMENTS CLR INVESTMENT FUND CONSTANTINOU BROS. CPI ENTER. DEVELOPMENT C.T.O. PUBLIC CO CYPRINT LTD. CYPRUS CEMENT CYPRUS FOREST IND. CYPRUS TRADING CORP. CYVENTURE CAPITAL DIMCO PLC DISPLAY ART LTD ELLINAS FINANCE ELMA HOLDINGS EMPIRE CAPITAL INV. EUROPROFIT CAPITAL EXELIXIS INVESTMENT FILOKTIMATIKI K & G COMPLEX KARAOLIS GROUP KARKOTIS MANUFACTURING KEO LTD KOSMOS INSURANCE KRONOS PRESS DIST. JUPITER PORTFOLIO INV. L.P. TRANSBETON LEPTOS CALYPSO HOTELS MALLOUPAS & PAPACOSTAS MINERVA INSURANCE MODESTOU SOUND & VISION NEMESIS CONSTRUCTIONS O.C. OPTIONS CHOICE PANDORA INVESTMENTS PIPIS FARM PETROLINA HOLDINGS PIERIDES HOLDINGS PRIMETEL PLC PROODOS AGROS RENOS HADJIOANNOU FARMS ROYAL HIGHGATE LTD SALAMIS TOURS SFS GROUP PUBLIC CO. STADEMOS HOTELS STARIO INVESTMENTS TOP KINISIS TRAVEL TOXOTIS INVESTMENTS UNIFAST FIN. & INV. VISION INTL PEOPLE GROUP SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO
ΟΑΣΗΣ
Kωδ.
Number
Nominal
Market
Book Value
Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών
Value euro Aξία EUR
Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR
Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία
Price to
Profit/(Loss)
Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.
3M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011
3M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012
Profit/(Loss)
2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.
2010
3M '11
3M '12
2011
BOCY CPB HB LOG LUI TSH ORF
ΤΡΚΥ ΛΑΙΚ ΕΛΗΤ ΛΟΤΖ ΛΟΥΗ ΤΣΟΚ ΟΡΦΑ
1 795 141 1 611 111 308 020 74 080 460 547 246 214 80 966
1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.17 0.35 0.35
423 653 124 056 54 212 19 631 10 132 16 004 7 044 654 732
1.54 0.38 1.45 0.78 0.25 0.53 1.72 0.95
0.15 0.20 0.12 0.34 0.09 0.12 0.05 0.15
306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -10 243 -17 397 3 328 380 951
74 000 71 017 916 2 194 -17 892 1 039 346 131 620
295 000 54 819 8 063 2 400 -20 414 -3 103 -1 504 335 261
-1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -82 674 -6 894 -8 648 -5 216 669
2010
3M '11
3M '12
2011
FWW VCW ERME APE LI ZRP ACD GAP KAN MIT LIB PHIL LHH LPL
ΓΟΥΛ ΤΣΙΒ ΕΡΜΕ ΑΝΠΑ ΛΕΠΕ ΖΟΡΠ ΑΘΗΕ ΒΑΣΙ ΚΑΝΙ ΜΙΤΣ ΛΙΠΕ ΦΙΛΑ ΛΟΞΕ ΛΟΡ∆
114 252 71 936 175 000 182 725 285 713 15 296 13 416 38 750 60 250 8 200 90 804 45 000 35 000 48 006
0.34 0.43 0.34 0.17 0.27 0.34 0.35 0.17 0.35 1.03 0.10 0.17 0.35 0.35
114 320 35 249 24 150 32 891 15 429 11 625 7 245 4 883 8 134 5 125 3 632 4 230 3 500 3 072 273 483
1.75 3.04 0.45 0.26 0.27 2.40 4.39 0.33 0.68 3.50 0.09 0.12 1.69 0.56 1.39
0.16 0.16 0.31 0.70 0.20 0.32 0.12 0.38 0.20 0.18 0.45 0.77 0.06 0.11 0.29
8 848 1 310 6 309 4 108 -47 1 846 25 987 -1 903 -703 2 574 -8 419 -1 453 456 71 38 984
1 684 -1 077 -3 708
805 -796 -4 411
578
11
-2 523
-4 391
6 674 -1 174 245 4 122 -1 734 989 2 133 -1 600 -77 -947 -2 667 -1 333 759 -1 302 4 088
2010
3M '11
3M '12
2011
6 217 11 604 13 841 3 173 8 578 4 996 28 941 9 433 2 779 7 085 3 000 201 5 408 2 881 11 250 7 314 6 261 1 234 20 642 5 751 36 832 2 096 7 290 810 5 280 6 967 39 239 627 4 760 2 066 11 000 447 956 18 587 2 158 12 036 4 371 1 971 7 118 8 210 2 352 149 15 875 464 42 444 773 55 125 1 547 18 012 5 816 2 729 1 980 3 288 5 322 6 825 386 3 175 414 200 75 000 575 283
0.90 0.06 0.51 0.04 0.52 0.26 0.73 0.29 0.77 0.51 0.25 0.46 0.44 0.09 0.75 0.65 0.12 0.36 1.66 7.84 1.82 0.49 0.23 0.35 0.76 0.06 0.05 0.20 0.79 2.47 0.62 0.07 0.12 3.71 0.48 0.74 0.3920 0.41 0.94 0.62 0.14 0.02 0.57 0.22 0.24 0.36 1.29 0.42 0.04 3.43 0.04 0.16 0.52 1.89 2.34 0.05 0.41 0.05 0.12 0.15 0.75
0.19 1.50 0.27 0.57 0.15 0.19 1.01 0.44 0.23 0.10 0.24 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.46 0.26 0.68 0.09 0.24 0.22 0.29 0.39 0.17 0.43 0.33 16.40 0.10 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.27 1.04 0.16 0.25 0.80 0.56 0.07 0.30 0.22 0.43 0.45 0.04 0.41 0.22 0.49 0.17 1.67 0.47 0.25 0.38 0.17 0.04 0.09 0.64 0.43 0.17 6.61 0.71
1 767 -3 960 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 -11 422 4 108 -2 203 257 -6 512 1 542 -622 -3 641 -7 007 440 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -504 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -501 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 5 981 -9 573 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -1 062 -181 -25 -43 -330 -62 896
APC AD FBI PROP ANC AST ATL ACS BLUE CCCT CHAP CJ CLA CLL CBH CPIH CTO CYP CCC CFI CTC EXE DES DISP ELF ELMA EMP ERP EXIN PES KG KARA KARK KEO COS KRO ARI TRB LCH MPT MINE MSV NEM OPT PND PIPF PHL PGE PTL AGRO FRH ROY SAL SFS SHL STAR TOP COV UFI VIP
EMERGING MARKET (N.E.A.) FOCUS FINANCIAL SERVICES CONSTANTINOU BROS PROPERTIES CYPRUS LIMNI RESORTS & GOLF PHONE MARKETING S.A. ITTL TRADE TOURIST & LEISURE INT'L LIFE GENERAL INSURANCE SA ORCA INVESTMENT PLC P.C. SPLASH WATER PUBLIC CO. WARGAMING PUBLIC CO. ECHMI S.A. INVESTMENT CONSULTANTS TOTAL
ΑΠΑΝ ΑΘΩΣ ΦΡΟΥ ΠΡΟΠ ΑΜΑΘ ΑΣΤΑ ΑΤΑΣ ΑΒΑΚ ΜΠΛΕ ΣΙΤΟ ΧΑΡΙ ΙΟΑΝ ΚΛΑΡ ΣΛΕΠ ΚΩΝΣ ΚΕΑΕ ΣΤΟ ΣΑΙΠ ΚΕΤΣ ∆ΒΚ∆ ΣΤΣ∆ ΒΕΝΤ ΝΤΙΜ ΝΤΙΑ ΕΛΛΗ ΕΛΕΠ ΕΜ ΓΙΟΥ ΕΞΕΠ ΦΙΛΟ ΚΚΟΜ ΚΑΡΚ ΚΕΟ ΚΟΣΑ ΚΡΟΝ ΤΖΕΠ ΤΡΑΝ ΛΕΠΤ ΜΑΠΑ ΜΙΝΕ ΜΟ∆Ε ΝΕΜΕ ΟΚΑΣ ΠΑΝ∆ ΠΙΠΗ ΛΙΝΑ ΠΙΕΡ ΠΤΕΛ ΑΓΡΟ ΡΕΝΟ ΡΟΧΑ ΣΑΛΑ ΕΣΕΦ ΣΤΑ∆ ΣΤΕΠ ΤΟΚΙ ΤΟΕΠ ΦΑΣΤ ΒΙΖΝ
36 572 128 936 98 861 158 660 107 226 99 925 39 109 72 562 15 438 141 692 50 000 10 070 108 163 288 141 160 714 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 47 853 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 8 571 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 61 056 46 355 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 300 194 3 590 272 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 38 581 12 212 20 700 9 988 75 000
CSE Code EXTE/EXTE ΚΩΑΜ/CBAM ΛΙΜΝΗ/LIMNI PHONE/PHONE ΙΤΤΛ/ITTL INLE ΟΡΚΑ/ORCA ΠΚΣΓ/PCSW ΓΚ/WG EXMI/ΕΗΜΙ
0.35 0.17 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.35 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.87 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.17 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10
No. of Shares (000) 1 690 1 950 300 000 1 575 100 000 8 057 1 200 35 052 3 400 297
Market Cap EUR (000) 11 830 36 855 300 000 5 513 75 000 21 834 14 280 42 062 3 400 1 319 512 093
Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 1.00 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 4.44
Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00
-1 977
-1 977
Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12
-3 350
-3 350
P/E ratio 2011
Earnings Per
Dividend Per
Dividend Yield
Share
Share 2011 Cents
%
Results Cents
n/a n/a n/a 5.48 n/a n/a n/a 0.16
4.79 n/a 98.57 7.98 n/a 11.75 3.40 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.61 n/a 10.86
373 -12 265 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 -6 400 2 306 -2 754 570 -3 519 -7 900 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -4 006 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257 -551 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -438 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 2 076 -2 192 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -1 737 -689 11 -37 2 753 -110 647
WARRANTS EUROPROFIT (WAR. 2005/2012) ALKIS HADJ. FROU-FROU (WAR. 2015) AMATHUS NAVIGATION (WAR.07-2013) UNIGROWTH INVESTMENTS (WAR.10/12) TOTAL
2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο
Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο
Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011
31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011
% Change
since
385.85 134.85 365.45
122.78 46.49 116.68
122.78 46.49 116.68
295.94 104.60 196.84
-58.51 -55.55 -40.72
377.70 0.76 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.04 0.05 0.12
112.19 0.24 0.08 0.18 0.26 0.02 0.05 0.08
112.19 0.24 0.08 0.18 0.27 0.02 0.07 0.09
286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.04 0.05 0.12
-60.89 -61.31 -74.07 -51.25 -1.49 -40.54 27.45 -28.10
Cents -76.37 -226.58 -32.68 4.84 -17.95 -2.80 -10.68
Cents
%
2.50
9.43
Cents 5.84 -1.63 0.14 2.26 -0.61 6.47 15.90 -4.13 -0.13 -11.55 -2.94 -2.96 2.17 -2.71
Cents 5.80
% 20.71
704.24 0.34 0.57 0.17 0.20 0.07 0.80 1.10 0.18 0.14 0.65 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.07
647.60 0.28 0.35 0.14 0.16 0.05 0.46 0.54 0.13 0.10 0.62 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.06
652.98 0.28 0.49 0.14 0.18 0.05 0.76 0.54 0.13 0.14 0.63 0.04 0.09 0.10 0.06
656.6 0.32 0.35 0.167 0.18 0.06 0.65 1.00 0.18 0.11 0.63 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.06
-0.55 -12.23 42.03 -17.37 0.56 -14.29 17.28 -46.00 -30.00 22.73 -0.79 -14.89 -4.08 20.48 6.67
Cents 1.02 -9.51 2.36 -1.63 -1.98 -6.40 5.90 -3.80 3.69 -2.48 -15.80 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -2.49 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -1.15 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -5.11 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 3.40 -4.73 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -2.12 2.03 0.06 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -4.50 -5.64 0.05 -0.37 3.67
Cents
%
740.44
683.80
0.91
6.50
7.00
9.46
1.20
6.67
8.50
13.49
2.00
9.52
683.80 0.17 0.09 0.14 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.74 0.13 0.18 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.07 0.30 0.03 0.24 0.15 1.88 0.40 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.33 0.02 0.82 0.02 0.14 0.43 0.11 0.02 0.12 0.60 0.12 0.59 0.07 0.23 0.07 0.19 0.03 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.10 0.08 0.63 0.07 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.21 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00
738.87 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.83 0.16 0.21 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.62 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00
-7.45 0.00 -18.18 -12.50 0.00 -20.00 0.00 -10.84 -18.75 -14.29 -28.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -22.22 -3.23 -40.00 -25.00 -16.67 -41.25 25.00 -17.65 0.00 0.00 -13.16 0.00 32.26 -33.33 -6.67 -10.42 -8.33 -33.33 -14.29 -14.29 33.33 -9.23 -22.22 0.00 -12.50 0.00 -25.00 0.00 23.81 0.00 -9.09 0.00 21.15 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25.00 0.00 -20.00 -8.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
No. of warrants (000) 893 24831 17606 2218
Mkt Cap (00) 1 25 176 22 224
Exercise Period
Exercise Price euro cents
Expiry Date
41212 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 1-15 Nov 2010 and 2012
8.67 173 20c or EUR 35c 29
30-10-2012 30-06-2005 15-11-2013 15/11/2012
Latest Close 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.010
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
CSE PRICES |31 CSE CODE OASIS
ΟΑΣΗΣ
Kωδ.
Number
Nominal
Market
Book Value
Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών
Value euro Aξία EUR
Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR
Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία
APPROVED INVESTMENTS / EΠEN∆YTIKOI OPΓAN. INVESTMENT INDEX ACTIBOND GROWTH FUND ACT ΑΚΕΠ APOLLO INVESTMENT FUND APOL ΑΠΕΠ FINIKAS AMMOCHOSTOU CONF ΚΟΕΠ CYTRUSTEES INV. PUBLIC CO CYTR ΣΑΕΠ DEMETRA INV. PUBLIC CO. DEM ∆ΗΕΠ DODONI PORTFOLIO DOD ∆ΩΕΠ HARVEST CAPITAL HCM ΧΑΕΠ INTERFUND INVESTMENTS INF ΙΝΕΠ ISCHIS INVESTMENT ISXI ΙΣΕΠ REGALLIA HOLD. & INV. REG ΡΕΕΠ TRIENA INV. INCOME TINC ΤΕΕΠ TRIENA INV. CAPITAL TCAP ΤΚΕΠ TRIENA INTERNATIONAL TINT Τ∆ΕΠ UNIGROWTH INVESTMENTS UNI ΓΙΕΠ SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO SHIPPING COMPANIES SECTOR
58 430 56 582 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000 56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468
SPECIAL CATEGORY / AIANTAS INVESTMENTS CEILFLOOR CYPRUS AIRWAYS D.H. CYPROTELS D&M TELEMARKETING DOME INVESTMENTS EFREMICO HOLDINGS G&K EXCLUSIVE FASHIONS KARYES INVESTMENTS KNOSSOS INV. K. KYTHREOTIS HOLDINGS LASER INVESTMENT GROUP LIBRA GROUP OCEAN TANKERS ROLANDOS ENTERPRISES SAFS HOLDINGS SEA STAR CAPITAL SUPHIRE HOLDINGS USB BANK WOODLAND DESIGNS PLC SECTOR TOTAL / OΛIKO
81 202 5 055 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 6 698 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 296 665 54 166 70 220 629 785 124 009 60 674 13 000
MARKET TOTAL / OΛIKO AΓOPAΣ
Price to
Profit/(Loss)
Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.
NAV
Disc/Prem
1 169 5 658 988 4 449 40 000 2 825 1 260 3 393 440 405 2 183 5 458 818 3 906 72 952
0.0434 0.2826 0.0157 0.3314 0.7474 0.0174 0.0634 0.1819 0.0673 0.0344 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2719
-53.92 -64.61 27.39 -69.82 -73.24 -42.53 41.96 -67.01 -40.56 -41.86 -23.30 -6.66 -2.04 6.66
812 202 23 469 1 571 385 16 250 228 469 540 218 5 519 8 643 1 894 5 933 5 417 702 6 298 1 240 36 404 83 330 199 525
0.1767 -0.61 -0.06 -0.11 -0.01 1.35 0.086 0.33 0.2491 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.34 -0.27 0.29 0.000 -0.04 -0.1180 0.53 0.13
2010 0.17 0.34 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17 0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17
-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6 -12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543
3M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011
3M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012
2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.
3M '11
3M '12
2011
0
-737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255 -9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525
0
2010 AIAS CFL CAIR DHH TLM DOME EFR EXF KAR KNO KYTH LAS LHG OCT ROL SAFS SEAS SUP USB WOOD
ΑΙΕΠ ΣΙΦΛ ΚΑΕΡ ∆ΡΟΥ ΤΕΛΕ ΝΤΟ∆ ΕΦΡΕ ΕΞΦΑ ΚΑΕΠ ΚΝΕΠ ΚΥΘΡ ΛΕΕΠ ΛΙΠΡ ΤΑΝΚ ΡΟΛΑ ΣΑΦΣ ΣΕΑΣ ΣΑΠΦ ΤΡΑΓ ΓΟΥΤ
0.21 0.03 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.68 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.09 0.57 0.17
1 775 975
-94.34 -0.07 -1.05 -0.09 -5.00 0.48 0.23 0.21 1.08 0.09 0.29 2.47 -0.03 -0.07 0.35 33.33 -0.26 -0.08 1.14 50.55
Profit/(Loss)
P/E ratio 2011
Earnings Per
Dividend Per
Dividend Yield
Share
Share 2011 Cents
%
Cents
%
Results Cents
Cents -1.26 -7.60 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82 -16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25
2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο
529.63
441.63
Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο
Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011
31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011
468.61 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.10 0.20 0.01 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.29
454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25
3.10 0.00 11.11 -33.33 -28.57 5.26 0.00 -10.00 -40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00
0.01 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.07 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41
0.01 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.07 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41
0.00 -
% Change
since
0.00
2011
-214 -1 353 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -3 507 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -50 257 93 -173 -50 598 -764 -6 534 -916 -155 728
`
0
0
-27 -1 856 -18 954 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -260 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -32 272 -328 -320 -16 501 -60 -6 248 -4 062 -104 736
149 768
127 120
327 520
-5 476 489
-0.03 -36.72 -4.85 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -3.88 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -10.88 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -0.05 -10.30 -31.25
0.06
0.03
source: Eurivex Ltd. PAT:Profit After Tax
NAV: Net Asset Value
Bold: Final results
EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares. P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.
Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility
FinancialMirror.com
June 6 - 12 2012
32 | BACK PAGE
Central Banks hold fire ... for now The intensifying euro zone crisis and uncertain global growth outlook have raised hopes for a policy response from major central banks but, while it could be a close call, they are likely to resist pressure to act in the coming week. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all due to meet as data emerges on the euro zone's service sector, and the manufacturing and trade performances of the big German and U.S. economies. The main focus will be Wednesday's ECB meeting, and whether dramatic selling of peripheral European government debt by investors in May and a flight into safe-haven U.S. Treasuries and German government bonds will prompt it to act. One reason to doubt a major shift in policy is that, even after U.S. Treasury 10-year notes hit yields not seen in more than two centuries of record keeping, and investors began paying the German government for the right to hold its debt, the move across all markets may not warrant it. "The stresses appear not yet to be big enough across all asset classes for the policymakers to react," said Richard Batty, global investment strategist at Standard Life Investments. "It all seems to be playing out in investor's appetite for triple-A government bonds and for the dollar, but there doesn't seem to be the volatility or sharp falls in equity markets or other stresses in the system, such as the funding market.� In Europe, the spread between three-month Libor rates and overnight rates, seen as a measure of health of the banking system, has been stable throughout May - mainly due to the more than 1 trln euros of cheap funds injected into the system by the ECB in December and February. And while May was a bad month for equity markets everywhere and Spain and Italy in particular, the widely watched Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes remain in positive
GLOBAL MARKETS WEEK AHEAD territory for the year to date. Those gains were under threat on Friday, however, as disappointing May U.S. jobs data sparked heavy selling, sending the MSCI world equity index back to where it started the year. The VIX index, often referred to as the market's fear gauge stood at 25 points, in line with its levels of last December but well below the 48 points seen at the height of last year's market turmoil in August and September. POLITICAL MOVES A heavy calendar of events throughout June which could help determine how the euro zone crisis unfolds may also encourage Europe's key monetary policymakers to hold fire. Greek elections are due on June 17, following a first round of French parliamentary elections on June 10. The heads of the G20 group of nations will hold a summit on June 18 and 19, while Europe's leaders gather at the end of the month to decide their next response to the crisis. But pressure is growing for action from the ECB to calm acute nervousness about a potential Greek exit from the currency bloc, and fears that the cost to Spain of saving its fragile banks will mean the country itself has to be rescued. "The ECB is currently the only institution that can credibly counter a collective loss of confidence on the scale we're now witnessing," said Nicholas Spiro, Managing Director at debt consultancy Spiro Sovereign Strategy.
Spanish bond yields have surged in the past week to near their highest level since the launch of the euro, raising questions about the country's ability to fund itself over the longer term without outside help. Spain will provide a big test of investor sentiment when it auctions more government bonds on Thursday as its 10-year bond yields hover around 6.5% - close to the 7% level at which other indebted countries have been forced to seek aid. The latest Reuters poll of economists found most still expected the ECB to resist pressure to cut interest rates before the end of next year, but that majority has shrunk from previous polls as gloomy economic data rolls in. Just 11 of the 73 respondents expected the bank to cut rates on June 6. The Bank of England is also expected to resist calls to pump more money into the depressed UK economy when it meets on June 7, according to a separate Reuters poll, although it found there was an even chance the central bank would restart the printing presses at some point in future. A slim majority of economists had expected Australia's central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, but a growing number of banks, including the nation's top four, had been calling for a cut. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board's mid-month policy meeting and the end of its current easing policy, known as 'Operation Twist', could also bring changes. "With dark clouds gathering over the global economy and the euro area crisis intensifying, the 'Great Monetary Easing Part 2' looks set to accelerate again as many major central banks around the globe are gearing up for more action in the next month or two," said Manoj Pradhan of Morgan Stanley.
Australia cuts rates to fight global gloom Au stralia 's ce ntra l ba nk c ut in te re st rates f or a sec ond month ru nning o n Tues da y in a bid to s hore u p confide nce at home, ju st as fina nce c hiefs of advance d econ omies aro und the world prepare to h old emergency talks on the euro zone debt c ris is. Citing a weaker outlook abroad and only modest domestic growth, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. The local dollar showed little lasting reaction because the decision was largely expected, although some had hoped for an even bigger cut given the darkening global outlook. "The Board judged that, with modest domestic growth and a weaker and more uncertain international environment, the outlook for inflation afforded scope for a more accommodative stance of monetary policy," RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement after the central bank's monthly meeting. The move followed grim economic data around the world, from U.S. payrolls to Chinese manufacturing. Australia's A$1.4 trln economy is heavily dependent on foreign demand for its resource exports. "It's a welcome decision. It is a win for households and it's a dividend of returning our budget to surplus," Treasurer Wayne Swan told reporters. "The announcement today from the Reserve Bank gives Australians confidence that the RBA has further room to move, and of course a big part of that flexibility is the return to surplus," he said.
Rates are now the lowest since December 2009, but still far above those in the United States, Japan or Europe, which is one reason investors are pricing in as much as 100 basis points of further cuts within a year. That would take rates beneath the record lows of 3% plumbed during the worst days of the global financial crisis. Australian households are highly sensitive to mortgage rates as over a third have home loans, most of which are variable. Mortgage debt totals around A$1.2 trln ($1.17 trln), or 1.5 times household disposable income, and paying the annual interest on it takes almost a tenth of those earnings. A reduction of 25 basis points in the standard variable mortgage rates saves an average borrower around A$540 a year. Australian banks are expected to pass on only part of the latest easing to customers, choosing instead to maintain profit margins in the face of higher funding costs. "It is pretty clear what has driven today's decision and ultimately the developments globally will continue to largely be the key driver of policy for much of the rest of this year at least," said Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC. She expects at least one more interest rate cut this year. Global financial markets have been gripped with fears that Spain's
banking crisis will spiral out of control and that Greece may face a messy exit from the euro zone after a June 17 election. The impact of Europe's debt crisis hit home hard on Tuesday when the country's top airline, Qantas Airways, warned of a steep fall in underlying profit due to losses on its international business. Shares in the airline slumped to a record low of A$1.16. There are also plenty of other home-grown reasons for the RBA to favour monetary stimulus right now. Price pressures are subdued, with measures of underlying inflation near the floor of the central bank's long-term target band of 2 to 3%, and fiscal policy is being tightened. A strong currency and intense foreign competition has pressured manufacturing and tourism, while a shift in spending habits by penny-pinching consumers has scarred retailers and the housing market. Australia's huge mining sector continues to enjoy a oncein-a-century investment boom, yet export growth has been hampered by a combination of bad weather and supply bottlenecks. Official figures out on Tuesday showed the country's exports dropped by more than 7% in the first quarter. As a result, net exports subtracted 0.5 percentage points from gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter.