4.4 The management of natural increase

Population policy encompasses all of the measures taken by a government aimed at influencing population size, growth, distribution or composition. Such policies may promote large families (pro-natalist policies) or immigration to increase its size, or encourage limitation of births (anti-natalist policies) to decrease it.

Population policy is a government’s stated aim on an aspect of its population, and the measures undertaken to achieve that aim. Pro-natalist policy is a population policy that aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives. Anti-natalist policy is a population policy designed to limit fertility through the use of both incentives and deterrents.

Case study Managing natural increase in China

China, with a population in excess of 1.3 billion, has been operating the world’s most strict family planning programme, the ‘one-child policy’, since 1979. Some organisations, including the UN Fund for Population Activities, have praised China’s policy on birth control. Many others see it as a fundamental violation of civil liberties. China’s policy is based on a reward and penalty approach. Rural households that obey family planning rules get priority for loans, materials, technical assistance and social welfare. The slogan in China is, ‘shao sheng kuai fu’ – ‘fewer births, quickly richer’. The one-child policy has been most effective in urban areas where the traditional bias of couples wanting a son has been significantly eroded. However, the story is different in rural areas where the strong desire for a male heir remains the norm. In most provincial rural areas, government policy has now relaxed so that couples can now have two children without penalties. Chinese demographers say that the one-child policy has been successful in preventing at least 300 million births, and has played a significant role in the country’s economic growth. Between 1950 and 2005 the crude birth rate fell from 43.8/1000 to 13.6/1000 (Figure 4.10). China’s birth rate is now at the level of many developed countries such as the UK.

35 40 45 50 Rate per 1000

30

25

20 Birth rate Death rate

Source: own elaborations on United Nations, 2006 *Forecast based on constant-fertility scenario.

15

10

5

1950–1955 1955–1960 1960–1965 1965–1970 1970–1975 1975–1980 1980–1985 1985–1990 1990–1995 1995–2000 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030–2035 2035–2040 2040–2045 2045–2050 0

Years

Figure 4.10 Graph of birth and death rates in China, 1950–2050

The one-child policy has brought about a number of adverse consequences including: l demographic ageing l an unbalanced sex ratio l a generation of ‘spoiled’ children with no siblings l a social divide, as an increasing number of wealthy couples ‘buy their way round’ the legislation

The policy has had a considerable impact on the sex ratio, which at birth in China is currently 119 boys to 100 girls. This compares with the natural rate of 106:100. Selective abortion after pre-natal screening is a major cause of the wide gap between the actual rate and the natural rate. In recent years, reference has been made to the ‘four-two-one’ problem whereby one adult child is left with having to provide support for his or her two parents and four grandparents. Care for the elderly is clearly going to become a major problem for the Chinese authorities, since the only social security system for most of the country’s poor is their family.

Typical mistake

While the one-child policy was introduced in 1979, this was not the first time China had tried to reduce fertility. The country’s first birth control programme was introduced in 1956.

Expert tip

With case studies, try to make useful comparisons where appropriate. An example in this case study is that China’s birth rate in 2005 was 13.6/1000 – a rate similar to that of the UK.

Now test yourself

Tested

29 Define the term population policy. 30 State two reasons why some countries are concerned that their fertility is too low. 31 When did China introduce the one-child policy? 32 How did China’s birth rate change between 1950 and 2005? 33 State three adverse consequences of the one-child policy.

Answers on p.216

A family planning programme regulates the number and spacing of children in a family through the practice of contraception or other methods of birth control. Civil liberties are the rights and freedoms that protect an individual from the state. Civil liberties set limits on government so that its members cannot abuse their power and interfere unduly with the lives of private citizens. Selective abortion is an abortion performed because of the gender of the fetus or when a genetic test is performed that detects an undesirable trait.

Exam-style questions

Section A

Country Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Rate of natural increase (%)

USA 14 8 0.6 Japan ? 9 0.0 India 23 ? 1.5 China 12 7 ? South Africa ? 12 0.9 Source: selected data from the 2011 World Population Data Sheet 1 Insert on the table the four items of missing data. [2] 2 Suggest three reasons for the considerable variations in birth rate between the five countries [3] 3 With reference to examples, examine the ways in which the age/sex pyramid of a typical MEDC would be different from that of a typical LEDC. [5]

Section C

Study Figure 4.4, which illustrates the model of demographic transition. 1 Describe and explain the changes that occur in stage 2. [7] 2 (a) What are the characteristics of stage 5? (b) Identify one country in stage 5 and suggest reasons for its demographic characteristics. [8] 3 Examine the differences between demographic transition in the MEDCs in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and trends in LEDCs today. [10]

Exam ready