Population policy encompasses all of the measures taken by a government aimed at influencing population size, growth, distribution or composition. Such policies may promote large families (pro-natalist policies) or immigration to increase its size, or encourage limitation of births (anti-natalist policies) to decrease it.
4 Population
4.4 The management of natural increase Population policy is a government’s stated aim on an aspect of its population, and the measures undertaken to achieve that aim. Pro-natalist policy is a population policy that aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives. Anti-natalist policy is a population policy designed to limit fertility through the use of both incentives and deterrents.
Case study
Managing natural increase in China
China, with a population in excess of 1.3 billion, has been operating the world’s most strict family planning programme, the ‘one-child policy’, since 1979. Some organisations, including the UN Fund for Population Activities, have praised China’s policy on birth control. Many others see it as a fundamental violation of civil liberties. China’s policy is based on a reward and penalty approach. Rural households that obey family planning rules get priority for loans, materials, technical assistance and social welfare. The slogan in China is, ‘shao sheng kuai fu’ – ‘fewer births, quickly richer’. The one-child policy has been most effective in urban areas where the traditional bias of couples wanting a son has been significantly eroded. However, the story is different in rural areas where the strong desire for a male heir remains the norm. In most provincial rural areas, government policy has now relaxed so that couples can now have two children without penalties. Chinese demographers say that the one-child policy has been successful in preventing at least 300 million births, and has played a significant role in the country’s economic growth. Between 1950 and 2005 the crude birth rate fell from 43.8/1000 to 13.6/1000 (Figure 4.10). China’s birth rate is now at the level of many developed countries such as the UK. Rate per 1000
50 45
Birth rate
40
Death rate
35 30
Source: own elaborations on United Nations, 2006 *Forecast based on constant-fertility scenario.
25 20 15 10
0
1950–1955 1955–1960 1960–1965 1965–1970 1970–1975 1975–1980 1980–1985 1985–1990 1990–1995 1995–2000 2000–2005 2005–2010 2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2025 2025–2030 2030–2035 2035–2040 2040–2045 2045–2050
5
Years
Figure 4.10 Graph of birth and death rates in China, 1950–2050 The one-child policy has brought about a number of adverse consequences including: l demographic ageing l an unbalanced sex ratio l a generation of ‘spoiled’ children with no siblings l a social divide, as an increasing number of wealthy couples ‘buy their way round’ the legislation The policy has had a considerable impact on the sex ratio, which at birth in China is currently 119 boys to 100 girls. This compares with the natural rate of 106:100. Selective abortion after pre-natal screening is a major cause of the wide gap between the actual rate and the natural rate. In recent years, reference has been made to the ‘four-two-one’ problem whereby one adult child is left with having to provide support for his or her two parents and four grandparents. Care for the elderly is clearly going to become a major problem for the Chinese authorities, since the only social security system for most of the country’s poor is their family.
Paper 1 Core Geography
67
