Foresight by Design- UAE
Mohamed Shahid Firoz
69255
Des 462
American University of Sharjah
March 20, 2019
Table of Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................3 Introduction......................................................................................................................4 UAE Demographic Profile......................................................................................5 UAE SEE Analysis.......................................................................................................6 The Hofstede Model for the UAE...................................................................8 ARUP Drivers of Change...................................................................................10 Conclusion......................................................................................................................12 References.....................................................................................................................13
Executive Summary
The UAE is one of the most prosperous countries in developing the infrastructure and its significance in the world in such a short time. UAE is rated the safest country in the world to live in. This paper evaluates UAE’s demographic profile with SEE analysis understanding the socio-culture, economic and environment is like. The Hofstede cultural dimension model is used in examining the UAE with five dimensions. Also, three cards are selected from ARUP Drivers of Change further describing the issues that the country has and how it could be fixed in the upcoming years.
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Traditional Dubai
Contemporary Dubai
Introduction The United Arab Emirates (UAE) chronicle can be pursued back to 6000 B.C. The UAE as a federation did not exist back then. The area and the surrounding region was referred to as the Arabian Peninsula. The story of the UAE considerably precedes the start of the Union of Seven emirates which are Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Umm Al Quwain, and Ras Al Khaimah and the formation of the United Arab Emirates. However, the Emirates’ union was a turning point in the history of the Trucial Coast region as the country’s population is around 9.64 million with a GDP of $382.58 Billion. The formation of the union was back in 1971, it could be deemed as a young country and it can still be studied through a demographic profile, SEE analysis, Hofstede Model and the ARUP Drivers of Change in the following sections.
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UAE Demographic Profile UAE is a small country with 83,600 sq. Km all together, yet the population witnesses a significant increase in the previous year due to the considerable growth in various economic sectors. The population growth rate of UAE is an estimated 1.5% per year in 2018 (Worldometer Review, 2018). The population of UAE is an estimated total of 9.64 million as mentioned above with only 10% population of the local population. The Mortality rates are ten death per 1000 live birth, and the fertility rate is 2.36 children per women (World Population Review, 2018). The founder H.H Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan tasked his government with building capabilities in health, education and social welfare seeing UAE citizens as contributory to the nation’s collective success. The success of this Union gave the United Arab Emirates its fair place in the international community as a modern state. The formation of the union was back in 1971, could be assumed as a young country and it can still be studied through a demographic profile, SEE analysis, Hofstede Model and the ARUP Drivers of Change. Nowadays the UAE is highly focusing on women empowerment and reducing the gender biases. The UAE has focused on educating both men and women. In 1975, the rate of adult literacy was 54 percent among men and 31 percent among women. Today, literacy rates for both genders are close to 95 percent (UAE embassy report, 2018). Nowadays it is considered important to be educated in the UAE as several government programs are implemented as one of the UAE’s highest priorities always has been education.
Education Social Welfare
25%
60%
Healthcare 15%
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SEE Analysis The SEE analysis stands for Social, Economic, Environmental. The social-cultural factors within UAE today are different than before as time evolved, the Arabs and the local community began to embrace new lifestyles due to the diverse culture. Even with a minor local community, they have always had close associations with other diverse population in the UAE. With around 52% of South Asians’ in the country, there is no differentiation or partialism among each other, and there is a continuous brotherhood that keeps the country united. Most Emiratis speak English and started to integrate English into their daily life also. What I feel as I study in my university along with the locals is that they are known for the hospitality and their respectful culture in the UAE. The leaders of the region treat people equally regardless of their religion or origin and also encourage their respective faiths. Hindu temples were given land in the capital Abu Dhabi with complete facilities for the Indians, and the visit of Pope Francis was an exciting moment for the Catholics residing in the UAE. The UAE focuses on the infrastructure investment in preparation for the Expo 2020. According to Countries Risk rating(2018), despite having been negatively affected by lower energy Prices, the UAE’s economy has benefited from its relatively diversified economy. The economic analysis of UAE says that After recovering strongly in 2018, the growth is expected to accelerate during 2019. This improvement will be mainly due to a higher level of oil production, higher oil prices, and increased government spending ahead of Expo 2020. The market economy in 2018 decrease due to the highly saturated market with high supply and low demand. The economy is generated through areas such as Tourism, Logistics, Retail, Real Estate, hospitality, hospitals, education, Energy, etc. Dubai has recently been facing an economic shift in the market due to the implementation of VAT which harms their economies in the short term with inflation rising to 4.8 percent(Aarti, 2018). However , the implementation of the tax will prove beneficial for regional economies in the longer term as it regulate illegal transactions flowing through different countries as Dubai is a hub for logistics, trading also a transit for business for other countries.
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The UAE’s rapid economic development made the country face serious environmental challenges arising from the high pace of population growth and the increasing demand for energy and water. On a per capita basis, UAE’s energy, water, and carbon footprint are among the highest in the world. The UAE is striving to be a sustainable country which is environmentally driven to produce green buildings and green materials from recyclable products. Many projects require LEED certification and ISO certifications that protects the environment and follow environmental safety and avoid hazardous disposal. It is evident that the UAE is working hard in terms of ecological development and the effort towards a sustainable environment showcases that. Therefore, the country cares greatly about environmental events and creating a better place to live. Expo 2020 team has sustainability on the top of their agenda as the new sustainability practices rollout of new sustainability practices across the UAE mainly focusing on the two objectives to protect natural resources through design lead culture and promoted use of sustainable materials in terms of environment. It is also a step to reduce carbon emission in the region.
The sustainability guidelines as a strategy for our master plan are a checklist for the expo 2020 team to monitoring them regularly to achieve the desired sustainable outcome. During the construction of the Expo 2020 pavilions, there was a sweet incident that occurred on site. When the laborers were starting to pick the steel required for their daily work they noticed a swamp of bees on the steel. Since the Expo 2020 community has a strict mission of sustainability, they have a team who contacted the Beekeeper association to protect it from it being killed. The attention to detail they have with the team is intrinsic and a good step ahead for a great cause of preserving the ecosystem during the construction of such a big project.
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Hofstede Model for UAE Hofstede Model dimensions in management will help you understand the cultural differences that can act as a barrier to communication. From analyzing the UAE dimensions, below are the suitable dimensions for comparison. Power Distance It is the degree of power in the hierarchy of an organization or country. The power distance is high here as it is a monarchy ruling system and having UAE individuals accept the hierarchy system and the respect between the people and the leader. The system is working in a way the leader has the power on hierarchy level, and that is something that the people have lived with from the formation, and also due to this, there is no political instability. I am an Indian residing in the UAE, but back from my countries ruling techniques, I find it better here due to the political stability and longterm ruling duration. Individualism Individualism refers to the strength of the ties that people have to others within society. The UAE is a collective country as it is people driven as the leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Rashid has taught the nation to be collectivistic and take the most outcome in less time. Hofstede model depicts that the UAE has scored only 25 could. It could be due to the one-sided governmental regulations which are different from the Indian government where there are independence and freedom of speech having the rights to express oneself. However, UAE restricts and controls the media which neglects the opinions and views on an individual, but in the long run, they deliver the goals as peoples opinions differ. Masculinity It refers to the distribution of roles between men and women and expressing the attitude of the culture towards these inequalities amongst the gender. The UAE has nine female ministers in the current cabinet which is near 30% of UAE cabinet. HE Reem Al Hashimi is the Director General of Expo 2020 and
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various other organizations in the UAE, HE Noura AL Kaabi Minister of culture and Knowledge and many other. I agree that In the UAE, women enjoy the same constitutional rights as men. Uncertainty avoidance This dimension is a way to keep the people aware of the uncertain and how well people cope with anxiety. The score is 80 which is rightly justified as when there are crisis and shift in the market; the people can withstand as they use techniques to survive in the tight market. In my experience from being in UAE, it has always prepared itself from many environmental uncertainties like rain, storms and other natural calamities by notifying the citizens and police are patrolling at all time of the day, so there is safety for women. Henceforth it is proclaimed as the world’s safest country to live. Long term orientation This dimension describes how society has to maintain links with its past while dealing with the challenges of the present and future. Marking 50 years of government service, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid is planning far into the future. For Dubai, dates will represent a century determined by the vision of one man. The extraordinary in a world where decisions of government often motivated by short term efficiency. Dubai silk road is a reference to the previous routes connecting Europe, Asia and middle east the region has many long-term visions and implementations towards the longterm orientation which are short term and timeframe. The construction of the Expo 2020 is happening at an incredible pace.
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ARUP Drivers of Change ARUP drivers of change are identifying the significant driver and looking at the new approaches to design to minimize the impact of future changes. The Drivers of Change does a great job in examining and setting out problems and areas within the societies or markets that require development. According to Arup Foresight (2018), the Drivers of Change programme was brought up by Arup’s Foresight team to study the changes happening in our world, and it is a set of cards that have a role allowing people to be more conscious about the surrounding environment. Three such cards were chosen and will be discussed about the country using Evans Forecasting Phases which are Analysis, Projection, and Synthesis. The Analysis is Scanning and identifying the problem. Projection is the possible future states and Synthesis are the actions required in addressing the scenario. The First card that I will discuss UAE is the convergence card, with the increasingly interconnected fields of business, science, and technology. A new business model such as open innovation, new disciplines like nanotechnology, IOT and Artificial Intelligence. UAE has emerging opportunities in terms of technology and encourages research and applications of innovative solutions in industries like health, education and social services. UAE has introduced an Award for UAE AI & Robotics launched by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid. Dubai is a hub for startup, but what are the challenges faced by entrepreneurs creating an AI startup, finding differing and scalable paths maximizing new technology and many companies directly partnership with US companies due to the development and speed of AI in Silicon Valley. So the implementation in the region will have a profound backup in terms of the technology. Internet of Things is a fast booming technique in the UAE. Virtual or online stores help the UAE society to reach to the consumables. Noon.com is a subsidiary of Emaar which focuses on the Retail Brick and mortar approach. The diversification helped them reach the virtual online buyer’s hand; hence the same store can provide online support of stock management and sales in breaking the conventional shopping techniques.
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The Second card falls under food category such that whether individuals could farm their food. The UAE lacks farmable lands which are another reason for a high percentage of import food. If there is no own production of crops uncertainties from the importing country will cause a scarcity for the commodity. Food that can be planted are limited, there is no choice but import from the producing countries. The solution for such a situation is that UAE could buy land in other countries that produce crops and food and developing them into farming land. E.g., Qatar after blockade they had tied up with turkey to get cows for producing own dairy products and this was only when the catalyst among Saudi and Qatar was not there anymore. As affirmed by Bitar (2015), the UAE brings in 85 percent of its food from other countries. There are many ways that this problem can be resolved, through exploring the different styles of gardening like hydroponics, which is the process of growing plants in a water-based and nutrient solution instead of soil (Woodford, 2018). Hence the scenario could be managed better, and UAE can offer its food. The third card falls underwater with the social issue and looking at sanitation and hygiene. Water is critical to stay clean and healthy. According to international charity WaterAid, 2.5bn of the world’s population lack adequate sanitation. In UAE, we use water obtained from desalination and salt is pumped into the Gulf. The inadequate water supply in UAE are challenges including groundwater reserves, high salinity level and a high cost of producing drinking water. According to the countries commercial Guide(2018), the government is managing the demand by investing in water-efficient technology, energy efficient seawater desalination and in education. To address the high cost to the government has reduced subsidies for water and power since January 2015 and increased tariffs in 2016 and 2017. Sanitation and hygiene can be causes for diseases in the country. So schools should teach hygiene behavior for kids and grown-ups there should awareness at the workspaces respectively and should be accessible the Hygiene products and sanitation. For example, Henkel or P&G are commoditiy brands that are distributing the right amount of products to the labor class and creating awareness. The food we eat is also under the close supervision of the municipalities with regulations.
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Conclusion The UAE has overcome challenges due to the aggressive attitude and their strive to be number one in everything they do. From the tallest building in the world to the fastest police car in the world. UAE has so many fascinating elements that are world-class facilities which result in the high tech technologies, and innovations which are design led and process oriented. The end factor is that the country turned out to be successful than ever as the demographic profile and SEE Analysis shows how that country has become a state of the art location which tries to improve upon issues and creating a better living space for the citizens. This is also identified through the Hofstede analyses of UAE and the cards of Drivers of Change
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References • Bitar, Z. (2015, March 31). UAE’s food imports to rise to $400b in 10 years. Gulf News. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/investment/uae-s-food-imports-to-rise-to-400b-in-10-years-1.1482864 •
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• History - The Official Portal of the UAE Government. https://government.ae/en/about-the-uae/history • Hofstede Insights. (n.d.). Country Comparison. Retrieved October 22, 2018, from https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/the-united-arab-emirates/ References
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• Langton, James. “How Sheikh Mohammed Plans to Create a New Dubai That Looks 50 Years into the Future.” The National, The National, 8 Jan. 2019, www.thenational.ae/uae/government/how-sheikh-mohammed-plans-to-create-anew-dubai-that-looks-50-years-into-the-future-1.810427. • Leon, Janice Ponce de. “A Sweet Story from Expo 2020 Dubai.” Gulf News – No.1 in UAE and Dubai for Breaking News, Opinion and Lifestyle, Gulf News, 4 Feb. 2019, gulfnews.com/uae/environment/a-sweet-story-from-expo-2020dubai-1.61428145. • Marham, Kay. “Opinion: The Future of Artificial Intelligence in the UAE.” ArabianBusiness.com, www.arabianbusiness.com/378417-opinion-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-in-the-uae. • Nagraj, Aarti, and Aarti Nagraj. “Negative Impact of VAT on UAE, Saudi Only Short-Term - PwC.” Gulf Business, Gulf Business, 4 June 2018, gulfbusiness. com/negative-impact-vat-uae-saudi-short-term-pwc/. • United Arab Emirates Population (LIVE). (2018). Retrieved from https:// www.worldometers.info/world-population/united-arab-emirates-population/ • United Arab Emirates. (2018, January 9). Retrieved March 19, 2019, from https://www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks/United-Arab-Emirates • United Arab Emirates. (n.d.). Retrieved from Economic Analysis https://www. cofacecentraleurope.com/Economic-analysis/United-Arab-Emirates • World Population Review. (2018, September 21). United Arab Emirates Population 2018. Retrieved October 21, 2018, from http://worldpopulationreview. com/countries/united-arab-emirates-population/ • Woodford, C. (2018, January 22). Hydroponics. Retrieved October 23, 2018, from https://www.explainthatstuff.com/hydroponics.html
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