Winter Outlook

Winter Outlook: Turbulent Winter Expected

By: Elisha Wolf

Why Do We Need Any Outlook?

Our outlook gives you an idea of what to expect this winter. Here are a few reasons this could be relevant: 1. You may want to know whether you should get extra/ new shovels and salt. 2. You may want to know if you will be needing your winter coat frequently 3. Your business depends on there being warmer or colder weather, and you need to know what to expect

Overview

The winter is looking bumpy, with periods of more turbulent and more tranquil weather.

Snowfall:

There will be 12 to 16 inches of snow.

Ice Storms:

About a quarter inch.

Temperatures:

Up and down, but generally near or below average.

Month-by-Month

December:

December is looking somewhat active, but very bumpy. A couple heat waves can be expected, but possibly a surprise snow or ice storm.

January:

January is looking quite active, with multiple snowstorms, and possibly one or two more significant storms.

February:

February is looking more tranquil, with less cold and snow. A cold blast may move in towards the end of the month.

March:

There are indications that a blast of arctic air will occur at the beginning of the month; this would mean colder but drier air. Then it will quickly warm up ahead of springtime.

MinyanCast Outlook: Temperature and Snow

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Historical Avg Historical Snow Temperature Snow

Temperature (Fahrenheit) 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Dec 1-10 Dec 11-20 Dec 21-31 Jan 1-10

Jan 11-20

Jan 21-30 Feb 1-10 Feb 11-20 Feb 21-28 Mar 1-10

Mar 11-20

Mar 21-31 5

4

3

2

1

0 Snow (inches)

There will almost forsure be a La Nina this winter extending until early Spring 2022. This is a phenomenon that, in practical terms, means the Pacific will be cooler, while the Atlantic will be warmer.

The La Nina will be somewhat weaker than last year, which will allow for a more turbulent winter. Obviously, winter in Baltimore is always turbulent; but on an atmospheric scale, it will be very bumpy.

November will be drier than average as a whole, but there are signs of an early snowstorm. This will be followed by a bumpy December, with indications of a heat wave and maybe a snowstorm.

Activity will peak in January, with multiple snowstorms forecast, with one more significant storm likely.

In February, it appears it will be more dry and possibly a bit warmer. But winter won’t be over, as a final punch is likely late in the month into the month of March. Atmospheric signals indicate that the polar vortex will be weak, allowing for arctic air to slide southward into the Eastern U.S.

However, it would be quite unusual for the Arctic air to last past the middle of March. Therefore, any cold air in late February and early March should give way to a quick thaw in the second half of March.

Alternate Scenario

Here are some high-end and lowend predictions for the winter, if an alternate scenario were to play out.

High-end snow: 17 to 21 inches, if we do get one or two significant storms.

Low-end snow: 5 to 10 inches, if it turns out more like the last couple years.

Temperature scenario #2: February gets the cold blast, with March having quickly rising temperatures.

Final Word

To sum it all up, this winter will have its typical turbulence. There will be about a foot of snow, some sleet and ice, with a variety of cold and warm weather.

Important notes: 1. Since this covers the broader nature of the winter, minor details and events could occur within each month and period. For example, February could be overall tranquil, but still have a quick snowstorm.

2. While the information used in this outlook uses long-range computer models, broader atmospheric trends and forecasts, and other outlooks and tools, because it forecasts many months in advance, the level of accuracy may be somewhat limited.

MinyanCast was started in January of this year, with the purpose of providing ad-free, accurate and easy-to-understand weather forecasts. In the 10 months since we started, we have maintained an accuracy of over 87%.

MinyanCast provides forecasts online at minyancast.com, by email (signup at de.minyancast.com), and by WhatsApp (sign up at dailywhatsapp. minyancast.com).