Thai Politics Update July 2011

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Thai Politics Updates – July 2011 Foreign affairs Comments on the Thai General Election This month‟s attention was entirely focused on the general election, held on the 3 rd of July.

During the lead-up to the election, calls for free and fair elections voiced by both international and national actors were widely echoed in the media. When it comes to the election outcomes, views and commentaries from foreign embassies and foreign media were unanimously positive. On the Thai scene, except for the tiny minority supporting the no-vote campaign, Pheua Thai‟s victory was accepted by all, including the losing Democrat Party and its former coalition partner the Bhumjaithai party, creating the conditions for political stability after a two-year period of daily street protests and yearly bloodsheds.

Whether or not this foreseen stability is going to last enough time to allow the government to build national reconciliation remains unanswered.

International organizations like the UN or the European Union stressed the importance of the elections and especially the acceptance of election outcomes vis a vis peace and reconciliation in Thailand.

Prior to the election, United Nations secretary-general Ban Ki-moon had indeed called for the election to be conducted peacefully and in a "fair, credible and transparent" and urged all parties to refrain from violence before, during and after Sunday's the election and, especially relevant to the Thai context, "to accept and respect the will of the people as expressed at the ballot box". After the election, he welcomed its outcome, noting "the orderly conduct" of the elections ". “The elections mark an important step towards genuine reconciliation, long-term stability and consolidation of democratic norms in the country" Ban Ki-Moon said.

The European Union also welcomed the election process. " I wish to congratulate the Thai people on the orderly way in which the elections on 3 July have been carried out. The EU hopes that the outcome of these elections will provide a solid basis for all political interests to unite in addressing the major political and social issues facing Thailand in the medium term.

This, in turn, will help advance Thailand's relations with the European Union and will reinvigorate Thailand's key role in ASEAN and on the world stage " (Statement by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton on the election in Thailand, 3/7/11, Brussels, A261/11) The United States also congratulated Thai people for their "robust participation" in the July 3 election. "The choice of who will lead Thailand now rests with those representatives elected by the Thai people. Washington looks forward to working with the next Thai government, the opposition, and non-partisan civilians "to broaden and strengthen our alliance, which is based on shared values and mutual respect" (Press Statement, Victoria Nuland, Department Spokesperson, Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC, July 3, 2011).

Association of Southeast Asian Nations secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan issued a statement on July 4 congratulating Ms Yingluck on her impressive victory. The overwhelming support and clear mandate should help form a solid foundation for her leadership, Mr Surin said.

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The fact that the elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is the first woman in Thai history in a world whose political scene is still dominated by men certainly accounts for a broad acceptance of her mandate.

Thai-Cambodian relations As neighboring Burma did through female politician and peace activist Aug San Su Yii, Cambodia warmly welcomed Thaksin Shinawatra‟s sister‟s victory in the general election. In the Thai-Cambodian context, the election had an interpersonal dimension. Indeed, there exists a reportedly very good relationship between former Thai prime minister Thaksin and current Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen, with Hun Sen calling him “an eternal friend” (Bangkok Post, 05/07/11). Thaksin even served as an economic adviser to Cambodia while in self-imposed exile last year. In the midst of the conflict around the border demarcation around the Preah Vihear temple, the Shinawatra‟s victory brought about hopes of reconciliation between the two countries. “It's obvious - we cannot hide that we are happy with the Pheu Thai Party's victory. We hope that the new government that will emerge from the Pheu Thai Party will resolve problems with Cambodia in a more positive and peaceful way than the previous government " Foreign minister Hor Namhong declared. (Bangkok Post, 05/07/11).

Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice on July 19 read its ruling on the disputed temple case. It provides for the set-up of a provisional demilitarised zone around the Preah Vihear temple and orders Thailand and Cambodia to immediately withdraw their troops from it and cease all military activities. The ruling on the case, filed by Cambodia on April 28, did not disappoint Abhisit-led soon-to-be-ex-government. Thai foreign minister Kasit Piromya expressed his satisfaction with the fact that the court did not comply with Cambodia's request that Thailand unilaterally withdraw its military."The provisional demilitarised zone will not put Thailand at a disadvantage. Neither does the court decision in any way prejudice its further consideration of another request, the court's pending interpretation of the 1962 judgment on the Preah Vihear temple," he said (Bangkok post, 19/07/11). Cambodia‟s foreign minister welcomed the decision.

Loyal to the cause that cemented the yellow-shirts during their 190-day siege of Government House in 2008, the PAD demanded that the government rejects the ICJ ruling and refuses to demilitarize the area.

However these calls did not resonate much in the Thai media and both countries promised to follow the ruling. This move was welcomed by Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan. As part of the judgment, the International Court of Justice also said that Thailand and Cambodia should continue their cooperation within the Asean framework and, in particular, allow the observers appointed by the regional grouping to have access to the provisional demilitarised zone.

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Thai-German relations Discussion this month was fed by a minor diplomatic incident between Thailand and Germany involving the seizure by a German company of a plane belonging to the Crown Prince in the context of an investment conflict with Thai authorities. The investment conflict between Thailand and Germany began when the Germans demanded that the Thai government compensate construction firm Walter Bau 30 million euros (Bt1.28 billion) in damages after a decision by an international arbitration tribunal in 2009 over the Don Muang Tollway.

Domestic Politics Election results

We have won, brothers ! (Yingluck Shinwatra, youngest sister of Thaksin Shinawatra, leader of Pheua Thai Party and prime-minister elect)

Election turnout was high (75 percent), but not as high as the previous one (85.38 percent on 23 December 2007) and approximately the same as the one before (73 percent on 6 February

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2005). This figure shows how awaited this election was. In certain cases, people even traded their freedom against the possibility to vote. Indeed, voters with criminal records turned out to vote and were caught by the police. In total, it was reported that 240 people who were wanted by the police for various offences were arrested at polling stations where they showed up to vote in the election.

3 July 2011 Party-list system

Constituency system

46,921,682

46,921,777

Voters Voter turnout

35,203,107

75.03%

35,119,885

74.85%

Invalid ballots

1,726,051

4.9%

2,039,694

5.79%

958,052

2.72%

1,419,088

4.03%

No-votes

3 July 2011 Political party

Party-list (number of votes)

Party-list

Pheua Thai

15,744,190

61

11,433,762

Constituency

Total number of House seats

Percentage

204

265

53%

44

115

159

31.8%

1,281,577

5

29

34

6.8%

906,656

4

15

19

3.8%

(number of (number of House seats) House seats)

(N.1 Yingluck Shinawatra) Democrat Party (N. 10 Abhisit Vejjajiya) Bhumjaithai (N.16 ) Chat Thai

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Pattana (N.21) Chat Pattana Pheua Pendin

494,894

2

5

7

1.4%

178,110

1

6

7

1.4%

998,603

4

4

0.8%

Mathubhum (N.26)

251,702

1

2

0.4%

Rak Santhi (N.12)

284,772

1

1

0.2%

Mahachon

133,772

1

1

0.2%

New Democracy

125,784

1

1

0.2%

500

100%

(N.2) Palang Chon (N.6) Rak Prathet Thai (N.5 Chuwit)

Total

1

125

375

Compared to last general election, held on 23 December 2007, Political party

Party leader

Constituency

Party-list

Total

Percentage

People Powerâ€&#x;s Party (Thai Rak Thai/Pheua Thai)

Samak Sundaravej

199

34

233

48.54

Democrat Party

Abhisit Vejjajiya

132

33

165

34.37

Chart Thai

Banharn Silpa-acha

33

4

37

7.71

Pheua Pendin

Suwit

17

7

24

5

6

Khunkitti Ruam Chai Thai Chart Pattana

Chesatta Tanacharo

8

1

9

1.88

Machatimathipathai Anongwan Thepsuthin

7

0

7

1.46

Pracharath

4

1

5

1.04

400

80

480

100

Sanoh Thienthong Total

With regards to geographical distribution of votes, the old same pattern dividing the country between the north and northeast in favour of the Shinawatraâ€&#x;s party and the south voting en masse for the Democrats is still, and even more markedly, relevant in 2007, as shown below:

Source: Electoral Geography.com Note: The People Powerâ€&#x;s Party was dissolved in 2008. It was reformed as the Pheua Thai.

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The red/blue line seems to roughly follow development fault lines (South more developed than the North and Northeast) with the notable exception of border areas such as Mae Hong Son and the three southernmost provinces. These areas are subject to severe security issues involving drugs and arms trade.

When it comes to Bangkok, results are very similar to those of the last election.

In December 2007, out of 36 seats allocated for Bangkok, the Democrats won 27 seats (75%) and the Pheua Thai predecessor 9 seats (25 %), in the framework of a multi-member constituency election design.

In February 2005, out of 37 seats allocated for Bangkok, the Democrats won 4 seats (10.8 %) and the Pheua Thai predecessor 32 seats (86.5%) and the Chat Thai won one seat (2.7%), in the framework of the 1997 constitution and a single-member election design.

For this election, under the revised 2007 Constitution, out of 33 seats allocated for Bangkok, the Democrats won 23 seats (69.7%) and the Pheua Thai 10 seats (30.3%).

Source: The Nation, 4 July 2011 Its north and northeast is roughly red while its south and southwest is roughly blue. The south of Bangkok is the new center of the capital, a businesses center, home to rich Thai families looking for a modern lifestyle as well as expatriates, especially in Sathorn – constituency 2- and Sukhumvit – constituency 4 - (for instance, Abhisit lived in Sukhumvit).

The West is the historical city centre, relatively untouched by exponential economic development, that is to say still free of skyscrapers and pedestrian paths, the tourist centre

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with the most famous temples areas and home to the most famous as well as the infamous Khao San Road, - constituency 1- while the north and northeast (11 to 20) is less developed.

For the July 3 election, there were 33 constituencies in Bangkok:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Pra nakhon, Pom Prap Sattru Phai and Samphanthawong Pathumwan, Bangrak and Sathorn Bang Kho Laem and Yannawa Khlong Toey and Wattana Dusit and Ratchathewi Din Daeng and Phaya Thai Huay Khwang and a part of Wangthonglang Lat Prao and a part of Wangthonglang Chatuchak Bang Sue Laksi and Don Muang (airport) Don Muang (except the airport) Sai Mai Bang Khen Bangkapi Bangkhun and Khannawao (Ramintra) Minburi and Khannawao Khlong Samwa Nong Choke Lat Krabang Saphan Sung and Krawet Suan Luang and Prawet Phra Khanong and Bang Na Thonburi and Khlong San Chom Thong and Thonburi (Dao Khanong) Ratburana and Thungkhru Bangkhunthien Bang bon and Nong Khaem Tawiwattana and Nong Khaem Phasee Charoen and Bangkok Yay Bang Kae Talling Chan and Bangkok Noi Bang Plat and Bangkok Noi TOTAL DEMOCRATS

Democrat

TOTAL PHEUA THAI

10 (30.3%)

Democrat Democrat Democrat Pheua Thai Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Democrat Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Pheua Thai Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat 23 (69.7%)

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BANGKOK NUMBER OF SEATS NATIONWIDE NUMBER OF CONSTITUENCY SEATS

33 375

The fact that the Democrats still largely beat the Pheua Thai in the capital city (by 23 to 10 seats) and especially in its so-called “high-so” constituencies also seems to validate the more developed/less developed divide hypothesis.

To conclude, Thailand has entered a strong bi-partisan political system since the foundation of the Thai Rak Thai Party by Thaksin Shinawatra in 1998. The bipolarization of Thai politics has very much intensified since the 2006 coup.

Electoral violence The elections were peacefully conducted. Reported violence included the death of a polling staff member on the election day and the one of Songwut Noppakhun, a member of the Surat Thani provincial administrative organization (PAO), on July 18. In the latter case, Songwut was a younger brother of election candidate Charnyuth, who contested the July polls in Surat Thani's Constituency 2 for the Pheu Thai Party. During the incident, a gunfight broke out and a five-year-old girl was killed. Later in the month, it was reported that the shooting had no political motives. As to the former incident, a polling staff member was shot dead in a driveby shooting in Surat Thani's Khiri Ratthanikhom district on the 3rd. Also, a car carrying ballot papers was attacked on July 3 in Narathiwat, injuring two election officials. Other incidents had occurred the month before in other parts of the country.

Election monitoring and complaints The elections were monitored by the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) as well as 29 representatives from eight countries, including Australia, Bhutan, India, Malaysia and the Maldives. On the third of July, they observed ballot counting procedures at EC headquarters.

Japan, the European Union, and the US also sent representatives to observe the election.

The Election Commission‟s handling of the elections (especially advance voting) was highly criticized during the ballot count, (which took four days) although criticism was soon-to-beforgotten when election results were finally announced. The ballot count lasted until Wednesday 6th July with Mae Hong Son, Ranong and Tak being the last provinces to announce final results.

Several complaints were echoed in the press, especially the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) „s claim that the EC mishandled it.

1. Political issues: Involvement of banned politicians/people charged with terrorism 1) Five parties were criticized for violating election law by promising voters free goods in exchange for votes. (cf table below) 2) Some complainants said any red shirts who had been charged with terrorism offences related to last year's unrest should be deprived of their right to run in the election.

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3) Some complainants have asked the EC to dissolve certain parties, charging that politicians who were banned from politics were still actively involved in helping the parties to woo voters (Thaksin Shinawatra, Banharn Silpa-acha, and Newin Chidchob) 2. Technical issues: “2 million people unable to vote�

4) Advance voting : There was a lot of confusion in relation to advance voting registration. Indeed, voters who had registered to cast their votes in advance at a certain polling station in 2007 were not removed from the list of advance voters in the next election unless they informed the EC they wanted to make a change; consequently, some voters went to their constituency polling station only to find they were not registered there, but rather somewhere else, where they have previously done advance voting in a previous election..

5) NGOs stressed the very high number of invalid votes due to many reasons including the design of the ballot coupon leading to people ticking the wrong box i.e. the box carrying the party logo or name, the fact that some voters might have believed that leaving the ballot blank would be counted as a no-vote while it was considered an invalid ballot 6) Both NGOs and citizen denounced the lack of clarity of the mixed electoral system design and the odd linkage between party-lists and constituency MPs. Indeed, if a party did not present any candidate in a constituency, a voter from this constituency technically could vote for that party in both the constituency and party-list ballots but his vote on the party-list would be lost, being counted as an invalid ballot. This affected many people.

In response to these various complaints, the EC acknowledged its relative lack of preparation leading to mishandling of the election, especially in relation to the high number of invalid ballots cast for constituency candidates. The counts showed that the total number of invalid ballots cast for constituency candidates accounted for 5.74% of all ballots cast. Invalid constituency ballots outnumbered invalid ballots cast for party-list candidates, which stood at 4.88%. In the 23 December 2007 election, invalid ballots cast for constituency candidates were 5.56%, while invalid ballots for party-list candidates accounted for 2.56%.

According to an election commissioner quoted in the Bangkok Post, three factors accounted for the high number of invalid ballots.

1- Several parties had fielded only party-list candidates, but people voted for them in both party-list and constituency systems therefore their constituency vote was lost 2- Voters marked a cross in the wrong boxes 3- The last factor was that some voters in the deep South who could not read Thai wrongly marked ballots On July 21, a group of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) submitted a petition seeking the removal from office of all five members of the Election Commission (EC) for poor organization. First, more than two million people to lose their right to vote, second, people under a political ban directed the electoral campaign activities, and finally, red-shirts wanted on charges of terrorism were elected, according to the petition.

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As a proof of this affecting organization, the group points at the significant difference in the voter turnout between the constituency and party-list systems. (1,726,051 versus 2,039,694 cf. above) The Election Commission, under high pressure throughout the month, finally managed to endorse enough MPs within the timeframe required by the law (475 MPs within 30 months) so that the House could convene its first meeting to elect its speaker and start the new parliamentary session.

The biggest debate question was about whether or not to endorse the red-shirts and especially Jatuporn Prompan who was in jail during the election and could not vote.

Hereâ€&#x;s an account of various issues considered by the EC for MPâ€&#x;s endorsement decisions

PHEUA THAI Allegation: Based on the 2007 Constitution, the political party law, and the election law, memberships of the Pheu Thai Party ended when they were jailed on terrorism charges, raising questions about whether they have the necessary qualifications to become an MP. - Jatuporn Prompan (party list) - Nattawut Saikua (party list) - Weng Tojirakarn (party list) - Col Apiwan Wiriyachai (party list) - Wichean Khaokham (party list) - Wiputhalaeng Pattanaphumthai (party list) - Phayap Panket (party list) - Korkaew Pikulthong (party list) - Karun Hosakul (constituency) Allegation: Failed to serve out a five-year break from politics, as required by law, after his release from jail for a contempt of court conviction in 2008.

- Pichit Chuenban (party list) Allegation: Declared bankrupt - Phadermchai Sasomsap (constituency) - Kosol Pattama (constituency) Allegation: Asked a banned politician to help their campaign - Yingluck Shinawatra (party list) - Chinnicha Wongsawat (constituency) Allegation: Used photo of a banned politician (Thaksin Shinawatra) during the campaign - Somying Buabutr (constituency) DEMOCRAT Allegation: Vote-buying, by providing "Blue Flag" goods for sale.

- Abhisit Vejjajiva Allegation: Making promises to voters - Siriwan Prasjaksattru

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Allegation: Abuse of power, for ordering a state run television channel to broadcast the party's campaign messages - Ong-art Klampaibul BHUMJAITHAI Allegation: Hosting free meals to influence voters - Chai Chidchob Source: Bangkok Post, 14/07/11

All red-shirts were later endorsed.

Yet the EC yellow-carded two MPs. The two yellow-carded politicians, Pheu Thai's Somkid Banthaisong of Nong Khai and Bhumjaithai Party's Chakkrawan Chaiwiratnukul of Sukhothai, were yellow-carded for vote-buying, resulting in two by-elections (in which Somkit and Chakkrawan were allowed to run again), in Nong Khai's Constituency 2 and in Sukhothai Constituency 3. They were held on July 31. The by-election however confirmed their victory. Besides the mechanism of yellow-carding by the EC, any candidate could contest the election result and ask for a recount, like in Yala‟s constituency 2, where the initial apparent winner‟s victory was verified.

Government formation – coalition talks Coalition talks had started as early as when the house dissolution was announced. During the countdown, Yingluck started forming her government. Sanan Kachornprasart was seen on TV as playing an important role in bringing all coalition parties together.

In the end, Pheua Thai was able to gather 300 MPs from 6 parties including the New Democrat Party (1 party-list MP), the Chartthaipattana (19 MPs), the Chart Pattana Puea Pandin (9 MPs) , the Palang Chon (7 MPs), Mahachon (2 MPs) and itself (265 MPs).

The second-winning party (Democrat Party with 159 seats) and the third-winning party (Bhumjaithai with 34 seats) were not approached to form a coalition given irreconcilable differences and rivalries among them.

With regards to the army, it accepted Pheua Thai‟s victory and promised not to interfere in political developments. Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, outgoing Defence minister said "Let the elected politicians work. We cannot chase them away. They haven't done anything wrong," (Bangkok Post, 4/7/11).

New government’s policies On the night where unofficial results made her the prime minister-elect, Yingluck unveiled her main policy priorities at a press conference. She listed priorities as follow

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1- National reconciliation through the work of Dr. Kanit Na-Nakorn‟s Truth and Reconciliation Commission 2- Preparation for the King‟s birthday celebrations on the 5th of December 3- Economy and improvement of the cost of living Most observers and media reports acknowledged that the new government will now be confronted to the difficult task of implementing its policies and keeping its electoral promises, and among the “policy package”, four special measures can be identified as particularly difficult to implement, namely 1) 2) 3) 4)

Minimum daily wage rise to 300 THB Free Tablet PCs Monthly wage rise to 15,000 THB for Bachelor degree holders Special administrative zone for the three southern provinces

Meanwhile, Yingluck said she had no plan to address two very sensitive issues namely the amendment of the constitution and the revision of article 112 of the Criminal Code dealing with lèse majesté provisions. About the latter, she declared “I have no opinions about the matter”. (quoted in the Bangkok Post, 08/07/11) Nevertheless, several Pheu Thai party figures signaled preparations to undertake constitution change, with ideas including amendment of the 2007 constitution or reinstatement of the 1997 constitution.

Democrat Party’s overhaul Following Democrat Party‟s defeat and according to the promise he had made to step down if his party did not as good as in the 2007 election, Abhisit resigned his post of party leader.

The party got 159 seats, losing 5 seats compared to 2007. "I've decided to resign because I could not lead my party to victory in the election " (quoted in the Bangkok Post, 04/07/11).

Consequently, all 18 members of the executive committee also lost their positions, including party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban (former deputy prime minister); Suthep declared he did not want to return to the secretary-general post. As provided by the law, the executive committee has to select a new leader within 90 days. Former Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayothin as well as former finance minister Korn Chonkavittj were tipped as possible successors although Abhisit retained the highest level of confidence from party members.

Apirak Kosayothin declared he was ready to become next Democrat Party‟s leader, but his involvement in a corruption scandal heavily impeded his chances to get the top job. He is one of the suspects being investigated by the National Anti-Corruption Commission in connection with City Hall's purchase of fire trucks and boats at a cost of 6.8 billion baht in 2004. The lawsuit states that the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority (BMA) procured 315 fire trucks and 30 fire boats at an inflated price.

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Court cases: Red-shirts This month, court cases developments in connection with last year‟s political violence were not as numerous as they have usually been over the last month; however, a very interesting case unfolded throughout July. Testimony from defense witnesses was heard in a lawsuit against four men for the arson of Central World on May 19 last year. The four defendants, Saichon Paebua, 29, Pinit Jannarong, 27, Padsakorn Chaisrithao, 18, and Attapol Wanto, 18, were arrested for the arson attack on the shopping complex. The two teenage defendants are being tried separately in the Central Juvenile Court while the two adults are tried in the Bangkok Southern Criminal Court.

All have pleaded not guilty in the case.

Meanwhile a date was set for opening the high-profile and political trial of 19 UDD leaders for their involvement in last year‟s April-May riots. The Criminal Court set June 1 next year for the start of the terrorism trial involving the following high-profile UDD : Veerakarn Musikhapong, Jatuporn Prompan, Natthawut Saikua, Karun Hosakul, Weng Tojirakarn, Korkaew Pikulthong, Kwanchai Sarakham, Yoswaris Chuklom, Nisit Sinthuprai, Wiphuthalaeng Pattanaphumthai, Phumkitti Sujindathong, Suksek Poltue, Charan Loypoon, Amnart Inthachote, Chayut Laicharoen, Sombat Makthong, Surachai Thewarat, Rachata Wongyod and Yongyuth Thuanmee.

On July 21, the period for applications to the Rights and Liberties Protection Department for compensation by victims of military operations on violent redshirt protests ended. 173 out of 243 cases were reportedly accepted and 8.8 million baht paid.

Human rights : Environment An environmental activist, Thongnak Sawekjinda, was shot dead on July 28 in Samut Sakhon province. He was a witness in a case opposing villagers to a local coal operator.

Thailand‟s nine regional Administrative Courts and the Supreme Administrative Court are opening new environmental cases divisions that will handle cases involving environmental issues. Over 1,300 cases reported await the new divisions. He was later released on royal pardon.

Southernmost provinces On the 13th of July, the emergency decree was renewed for another two months. Violence still remained unabated in July with numerous fatal incidents in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand, namely Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat.

Economy and Society Awards (peace activist) On July 23, Mr Sulak was awarded a Japanese peace prize, the 28th Niwano Peace Prize, for ''his contribution to a new understanding of peace, democracy and development, and to environmental preservation based on the core principles of his Buddhist faith''. According to

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Thai media accounts, Mr Sulak has helped shape a civic movement that integrated the concepts of social welfare, community development, cultural diversity, and environmental responsibility. His controversial book Unmasking Thai Society landed him in court on a charge of lese majeste in 1984.

Funerals Princess Bejaratana passed away on Wednesday 27 July at the age of 85.