U.S. Energy Exports, and The Panama Canal Expansion

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. International Maritime Consultancy, Shipping Finance Advisory & Ship-brokerage

“U.S. Energy Exports, and the Panama Canal Expansion�

United States Association for Energy Economics / NCAC Washington, D.C., July 15th, 2016

“Safe Harbor” Statements ‘And seas but join the regions they divide’ Alexander Pope

‘In Sea affairs, nothing is impossible, and nothing is improbable’ Admiral Lord Nelson, writing from HMS Victory in 1804

‘If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea’ Antoine de Saint-Exupéry KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 2

Agenda

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The “Old” Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The “New” Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

June 2016

Page 3

Company Introduction Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. is New York-based firm with worldwide footprint & strong, well-qualified management team Active in shipping finance advisory, restructurings, maritime strategy, private placements, vessel valuations, ship brokerage and vessel management Clients include:

Financial institutions seeking shipping market expertise and advisory on shipping matters Financial institutions in need of origination of transactions in shipping Banks seeking to dispose of shipping assets and/or shipping loans Shipowners seeking advise to access the financial markets Shipowners seeking advisory and investors with existing ‘legacy’ concerns Shipowners seeking financial partners to benefit from present market trough

Dry bulk, tankers, containerships and offshore International flag business primarily, but also Jones Act expertise Proven track record of market outperformance and delivering value to clients KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 4

Company Information Management team bears decades of diverse, proven shipping expertise, including port operations, chartering, ship brokerage and demolitions, vessel management, shipping finance and vessel valuations, co-placements and JVs Company established in 2011, corporate history back to 2008; presently six employees, on both full- and part-time basis Impeccable credentials & references (gladly provided upon request) Well-representative existing clientele base q Geographic Distribution – Americas, Europe (UK, Germany, Greece, Scandinavia), SE Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand), Far East (Hong Kong, Japan) China q Corollary Industry Functions – Shipowners, Charterers, Vessel Managers / Operators, Oil Companies (including National Oil Companies), Cargo Interests and Traders, Financial Owners & Lessors, Lenders & Creditors, Service Providers q Shipping-market Segmentation: Tankers (crude oil, products tankers, chemical tankers), Dry bulk vessels (capesize, panamax, supramax/handymax, handysize), Purpose-built vessels, Containerships (postpanamax to feedership vessels), Offshore & Drilling – Jones Act Assets q Capital-structure Segmentation: publicly-traded companies and privately-held companies, Fortune 10 companies and private independent owners, financially-oriented owners & lessors KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 5

Agenda

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The “Old” Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The “New” Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

June 2016

Page 6

Panama Canal Traffic by Traffic Segment

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 7

Top 15 Countries of Origin and Destination of Cargo (in long tons, 2015)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 8

Panama Canal Traffic by Traffic Segment

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 9

Petroleum Traffic via the Panama Canal (2015)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 10

Agenda

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The “Old” Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The “New” Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 11

Historical Freight Market Data

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 12

World Fleet Development by Sector

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 13

Agenda

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The “Old” Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The “New” Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 14

Panama Canal Update

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 15

Expanded Panama Canal (Tankers)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 16

Expanded Panama Canal Update (Tankers, in comparison)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 17

Expanded Panama Canal “Sanity Check” Cost of Expansion: ~ $5.3 billion July 1st, 2016: Containership MV ‘MOL Benefactor’ (10,000 TEU, ) pays $829,468 in canal tolls for northbound crossing; highest canal dues ever paid, until now At ~ $1 mil per crossing per post-panamax containership, appr. 5,500 such crossings will be required to recoup investment. In 2015, 12,000 ocean-going vessels crossed the Canal, in total, thus it will take several years of transits by incrementally larger containerships to recoup investment.

It costs appr. $1,700 to transport a container from China to US East Coast, in a weak freight market; based on full-capacity utilization, appr. $83 per container on MV ‘MOL Benefactor’ just to cross the Canal, appr. 5% of the total freight cost.

For capesize vessel (present freight market of $6,000 pd and est. of $10,000 in fuel expense), it will take two weeks of additional savings to justify $500,000 in canal dues.

Timing of completion of expanded Panama Canal is un-fortunate as it coincides with multi-year lows of the shipping industry.

Real “worth” of Panama Canal will be seen when shipping markets revert to the mean, and world economic growth is much higher than present (~1-2%) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 18

Panama Canal Unknowns “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”, it has been said.

Many variables can affect volume of future transits, trades and trading routes, and cargoes: State of freight market (i.e. tonnage supply and demand, economic growth, etc) Price of oil as fuel (bunkering expense for vessels) Port infrastructure (i.e. terminals, dredging, etc) Cost of capital and interest rates (i.e. Capex for vessels, trade finance cost, etc) Trading patterns (LNG has been traded on long term contracts and ‘trains’ with nascent spot market) Pricing models (LNG vs oil) Regulatory and political events (emission laws, clean energy, etc)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 19

Newsflash: In the U.S., Largest Oil Reserves in the World

Financial Times, July 4th, 2016, based on report produced by Rystad Energy KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 20

Newsflash: Shale Oil is Low Cost Oil

Financial Times, July 13th 2016, based on Wood Mackenzie Analysis KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 21

Thoughts on Crude Oil and Panama Canal Transits U.S. has great potential as exporter of crude oil (swing producer?)

Lifting of export ban of crude oil in 2015 Presently, appr. 600,000 bbl per diem exported by US Seaborne exports mostly to Europe (UK, Continent, Med) Mostly on Panamax or Aframax tankers (400,000 – 600,000 bbl per shipment / tanker) Still a developing trade in early stages, but so far in small parcels over short distances

India, SE Asia, China and Far East show strongest demand in crude imports Middle East (and now Iran) likely first source U.S. crude oil can only exported in supertankers (i.e. Suezmax, VLCC) costcompetitively to countries in the Pacific Rim Expanded Panama Canal cannot accommodate such tankers Possibly, transshipment via Panamax / Aframax tankers and/or pipeline and reverse lightering of supertankers in Pacific Coast of Panama Potentially can happen, for North Asia / China / Japan, but at different cost curves of crude oil and seaborne shipment EIA, June 30th, 2016: “Panama Canal expansion unlikely to significantly change crude oil, petroleum product flows” KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 22

LNG Tanker World Fleet (# of Vessels >50,000 cbm)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 23

LNG Seaborne Trade (mil tons)

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 24

Panama Canal LNG Tanker Canal Dues

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

June 2016

Page 25

Panama Canal LNG Tanker Canal Dues

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

June 2016

Page 26

Transport Costs for LNG (160,000 cbm) from USG to Japan

Slide for comparison purposes only. Otherwise, exceptionally low shipping cost reflect weakest freight market and also low bunkering expense.

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 27

Thoughts on LNG and Panama Canal Transits U.S. natural gas discoveries in last decade have been a game changer Countries of the Pacific Rim likely major buyers of US LNG over time LNG trading is moving away from ‘train’ to ‘spot training’ (similar to crude oil) Most of the LNG tankers at present are owned by ‘independent’ shipowners, intended for spot market trading Transiting the Panama Canal makes economic sense for LNG tankers Most economic route, even in historically weak times Savings on trade finance costs, Capex for expensive cargoes and vessels Corporate Social Responsibility by lowering emissions, etc

Transiting the Panama Canal makes also sense for newly developed large LPG Tankers, Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) and also ethane Tankers The expanded Panama Canal likely to a have symbiotic relationship with development of natural gas markets and exports from North America

Possible competition: circumnavigating North America via the Arctic (Northwest or Northeast Passage) – in the future KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 28

Agenda

Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The “Old” Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The “New” Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 29

Contact Details Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.

International Maritime Consultancy, Shipping Finance Advisory & Ship-brokerage Headquarters: One World Financial Center, 30th Floor 200 Liberty Street New York, NY 10821 USA Germany Office: Neuer Wall 80 20354 Hamburg

USA (New York City): +1 212 380 3700 GERMANY (Hamburg): +49 40 822 138 345 Email: INFO@BMKaratzas.com Web: www.Karatzas.com

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July

2016

Thank you for your attention!

For Current Commentary on Shipping Finance, Please Feel Free to Visit Our Blog at

www.shippingfinance.wordpress.com

References and Data Sources: EIA, The Panama Canal Authority, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Maritime Executive, gCaptain, Clarksons Research, Karatzas Marine Advisors.

KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co.

July 2016

Page 31