Bath HKPASS: Newsletter 01 (Feb 2019)

ISSUE 1 I FEB 2019 HONG KONG

UNITED KINGDOM

CHINA EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY UNION

NEWSLETTER

University of Bath Hong Kong Public Affairs and Social Service Society

Photo: Elaine Li

CONTENTS

Hong Kong 3 4

Freedom of Speech Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge

UK 5 6

Reasons behind UK universities possible bankruptcy Bath Clean Air Zone

China 7

China's debt-trap diplomacy

EU 8 9

Brexit: Is the deal settled?

EU moves to protect large carnivores

Technology 10 11 12

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Rise of e-commerce and its effects on physical retail stores Robotics future Additive manufacturing

HONG KONG

HOW A BRITISH JOURNALIST HAS TO DO WITH HONG KONG: THE LATEST TIGHTENING OF FREEDOM OF PRESS Heinberg Chan

Victor Mallet, the British Asia News Editor for the Financial Times, had his working visa application denied, signaling an expulsion from work in Hong Kong.

Even though an official explanation has not been offered by the government, the general consensus is that the ban was linked to a prior episode of events. Shortly before the ban, Mallet, also the acting president of the Foreign Correspondents’ Club (FCC), made a bold decision to invite Chan Ho-Tin, a controversial pro-independence activist, to give a speech in one of its events. Even though the FCC faced a massive backlash at the time for inviting Chan, the controversy was regarded as a minor incident and was expected to simply be forgotten.

When questioned about the visa rejection, Chief Executive Carrie Lam maintained that the incident is an individual case and that all talks about the damage to the freedom of speech are merely speculation. And the Chinese government has plenty of experience with that, just look at the tactics they use, jailing activist Liu Xiaobo, the 709 incident cracking down on law firms.

As a response to the expulsion, the UK and US government expressed concerns over the tightening of Hong Kong’s freedom of press. The logic they present is - China’s national safety should be prioritized over freedom of press; whenever independence is involved, journalists should be expelled in the name of national safety.

The visa rejection is merely the latest episode following a long list of events in a series of tightening of freedom of speech and freedom of press. But as the public witnesses one atrocity after another against journalists, media, seeing Lau Chun-To being stabbed, booksellers being outrightly kidnapped, there is a growing sense of disillusionment and helplessness in the society, a sense that nothing could be done.

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HONG KONG

HONG KONG - ZHUHAI - MACAU BRIDGE Jason Chan

The 55km bridge-tunnel system is designed to establish a new transport link between the three main cities in the Pearl River Delta, creating a three-hour commute and enhancing the economic development within the area.

Indeed, there is a possibility where the HZMB brings out the economic potential of the Pearl River Delta, allowing Hong Kong to share fruitful results from the economic growth, and everyone would be thankful for the HZMB.

With such low vehicle traffic, it would be impossible to meet the break-even point within 20 years as proposed, not to mention the annual expense of maintenance and management that were not included in the equation.

With that being said, despite low vehicle traffic, the opening of the HZMB has led to an influx of mainland tourists over the past three weekends.

The disturbance was so great that a group of locals launched a “Reclaim Tung Chung” action on 11th November to protest against unlicensed tourist guide bringing mainland tourist to Hong Kong, the action has led to conflict and chaos when the “Reclaim Tung Chung” protestors encountered their opposing protest group.

While the use of HZMB seems to be running more smoothly, let us not forget the fact that it took a total of four weeks to “solve” a tourist influx incident, which is arguably a low severity incident when talking about usage of infrastructure. After all, issues such as faked safety test results and controversial seawall integrity have arisen during the construction of HZMB, it is difficult not to think about how devastating things can turn out.

The picture shows the "Reclaim Tung Chung" action, where protesters held up a sign warning tourist guide that bring tourist to Hong Kong without a license is a breach of law.

Nonetheless, the HZMB is now opened for public use, the government must win back the general public’s trust such that Hong Kong people can also make use of the bridge that they paid 120 billion dollars for. As for the promised future that the HZMB might bring us, we can only keep our fingers crossed for now, because while the so-called benefits still await, Tsing Yi residences are already worried about becoming the next victim of the tourist influx.

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UK

SHRINKING UK UNIVERSITIES Kari Lam According to UCAS, institutions like Sunderland University, Southampton Solent University and London Metropolitan University have experienced a decline of more than 25% of student acceptances for 4 years in a row and so far there are no signs of recovery. This might result in shrinking classes or even a shut down of the school.

One of the main reasons is the increasing competitiveness for “higher-ranked” universities. As the more well-known universities (e.g. UCL, Exeter and Bath) expand, more students are being accepted - which are potentially taking students away from the “lower tariff” universities.

If universities struggle to support themselves financially due to the lack of income from students, they are most likely to be eliminated from the market. This will not only cause serious employment issues but also affect the local community. Universities do not only contribute to academic success to an area, but they also create graduate employment and in turn increase income and enhance local living quality.

To save these universities, the merge of institutions can be a solution. This was proven to be successful when University College Cardiff combined with the University of Wales Institute of Science and Technology in 1987. Bankruptcy was prevented and both schools survived. Other solutions include diverting focus: Sunderland shifted its attention to mature students to compensate for the loss of undergraduates.

In the past, the Higher Education Funding Council for England helped resolve the situation by lending loans. However, it can no longer help these failing institutions due to its recent change of role. Whilst certain universities are on the edge of bankruptcy, others are growing in popularity with the increasing student population. Some argue that this is an essential stage of the evolution of the education system.

The minister for universities, Jo Johnson, pointed out the necessity for “market exit”.

Markets are always competitive, therefore it is crucial for individuals to constantly improve and advance oneself. The same applies to our education system.

Alarming decreases in the enrollment rate of some UK universities signaled future difficulties and a change in the student market.

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UK

BATH

CLEAN AIR ZONE William Cheng

Air pollution is one of the controversial problems in Bath as it is located in the valley of River Avon, so pollutants cannot be effectively dissipated from the city centre. Thus, Bath and North East Somerset Council introduced a Bath Clean Air Zone in mid-2018 to improve the air quality by 2021. Although it can reduce vehicular pollutants in the city centre, it directly affects the regular routines of residents and students.

Due to the geographical location of Bath, air pollutants such as smog and greenhouse gases are trapped in the city centre. According to the Council’s public consultation, nitrogen dioxide levels in Bath have exceeded the European and national legal limit. These pollutants are mainly emitted from vehicles, thus setting up a clean air zone can reduce the number of high-emission-vehicles with the implemented charges. Consequently, this improves the health of residents and workers in Bath.

The initiative encourages residents living in the Clean Air Zone to replace for new vehicles that satisfy the minimum emissions standards.

However, not everyone can afford to do so, therefore some may move away from the city centre to avoid vehicle charges and use public transport instead.

In order to comply with the Clean Air Zone, some bus routes in Bath have been changed.

One of the most affected services is the university U1 bus.

The bus route was diverted from Guildhall and North Parade to a further location, Pulteney Road South, in early September 2018. Walking from Guildhall to the nearest U1 bus stop, Corn Street, takes at least seven minutes. Although buses no longer pass through the city centre, students have to walk to the perimeter of the city to the nearest U1 bus stop.

In conclusion, introducing a Bath Clean Air Zone can cut down vehicular emission in the Bath city centre and consequently, reduce air pollution. This makes the city more environmentally friendly and attractive to the public.

However, is it truly beneficial to the local residents and students?

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CHINA

IS CHINA'S BELT & ROAD INITIATIVE A MERE DEBT-TRAP DIPLOMACY PLOT? Jasmine Hau

After the introduction of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, concerns have been raised as to whether the 8 trillion-dollar program to fund and build infrastructure in 70 countries is simply to assist trade and connection between the countries or more as an example of debt-trap diplomacy in which China utilises this investment project to gain influence overseas and promote Chinese dominance.

An academic report, from graduate students of the Harvard Kennedy school of policy analysis describes China’s methods being “remarkably consistent” with it offering longer term loans with extended grace periods, which was more appealing in comparison to IMF loans to countries with weaker economies and governance.

However, this may just be the stem of the problem. Construction projects, which the report said had a reputation for running over budget and yielding underwhelming returns, make debt repayments for the host nations more difficult. Montenegro took Chinese money, labour, construction material and engineering to build a highway from its port on the Adriatic Sea towards Serbia. But now, with the highway less than halfway built, Montenegro already incurs debt of more than 80 percent of its gross domestic product.

The failure to repay China’s debts provide the Chinese with leverage on the debt-stricken countries.

The most striking example occurred last year when Sri Lanka was unable to service the debt it had undertaken to China’s Exim Bank for the Hambantota port project and was forced to give a 99-year lease for the militarily significant port to a Chinese state-owned port management company.

Despite the doubts, the Belt and Road Initiative has definitely been advantageous in some ways as it assisted many countries in developing infrastructure from transportation to electrical energy. For example, China has invested $14 billion in in Eastern Africa Kenya’s Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

The single-track railroad stretches from Mombasa to the Kenyan capital, Nairobi.

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EU

THE EU'S RESPONSE TO BREXIT: IS THE DEAL SETTLED? Melissa Chan

It has been over 2 years that the UK referendum backed leaving EU since 2016. On the 25th November, the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement was declared, and the draft political declaration was approved by the EU27 leaders. According to the Council of the European Union, Brexit is described as a ‘divorce’ between the UK and other parties. The financial settlement and rights of the people living in the EU after Brexit have to be accepted by all the parties.

What is the relationship between the 28 EU countries?

The European Union associates political and economic affairs between its member states.

It forms one of the strongest trading blocs in the world so that the worldwide economic can be controlled under the EU28.

The dominant single market in the European countries enable the EU member states to control the trade diversion and trade creation around the world. Losing one of the strongest allies in the EU would potentially weaken the authority of the Union.

The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, also faces rejections in her motherland. The Parliament rejects May’s draft divorce deal as the number of rebellions is unstable within her Conservative Party.

The succession of Brexit may indicate several problems in extent. The trade barrier is restricted between the UK and other member states so policies reflected in tariffs and other import charges will be altered. Also, some countries such as Italy and Poland are planning to be independence from the EU. Brexit, therefore, needs to be more considerate and harsher so that the divorce from the EU would not be underestimated by other member states.

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EU

EU MOVES TO PROTECT LARGE CARNIVORES Alison Yu The EU is to allow farmers to receive full compensation for any damages caused by attacks from protected animals like lynxes, wolves and bears. This will help protect large predators in areas where they have come into conflict with humans.

After decades of decline, the numbers of large carnivores are stable or increasing in Europe, often due to concentrated conservation efforts.

However, conservation success is also increasing human-wildlife conflict. Despite these wild carnivores being protected by law in most countries, farmers have continued to reach for their guns when their domestic animals have been attacked.

This has become a significant issue in countries such as France, where the government paid €3.2m in compensation for the 10,000 sheep killed in wolf attacks in 2016. By relaxing the rules on reimbursing farmers for the damage done by carnivores, the EU hopes that it will lessen the need for farmers to kill these threatened species.

Under the new arrangement, farmers will be fully compensated for damages caused by wolves and bears. They will also be entitled to compensation for other expenses such as building electric fences and buying guard dogs.

Indirect expenses, including veterinary bills for the treatment of wounded livestock, and the costs of searching for missing animals, will also be fully met.

Animal rights campaigners welcomed the move. “It’s taking away an excuse for killing the animals by saying there are preventative measures you can take which can reduce, if not completely eliminate the threat,” said Dr Jo Swabe from Humane Society International.

There has been a lot of pressure from governments in Germany and France to allow culls of wolves as a way of protecting domestic livestock and some have raised concerns that humans could also be attacked.

“You have essentially scaremongering politicians saying we need to have this option because sometimes it could be a child that’s attacked,” said Dr Swabe. “But if you look at wolf behaviour, it’s highly unlikely that a child would ever be attacked. They have more to fear from us than we have from them.”

While the EU has sanctioned increased payments for farmers in the hope that this might reduce the need for culling, the money has not always been forthcoming from governments. Experts say that in Romania, for example, payments for damage caused by large carnivore attacks have been withheld.

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TECHNOLOGY

E-COMMERCE: IS IT KILLING THE BRICK & MORTAR STORES? Daphne Yung

November is known to be a month of shopping.

On 11 November, there was the famed “Double Eleven” or “Singles Day” annual sale on China’s e-commerce giant Taobao. It was announced that the total transaction amount for November 11th was a record-breaking ¥213.5 billion. Just under two weeks from the shopping craze in China, much of Western civilisation will have their period of shopping craze – also known as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. As technology progresses in recent years, society has seen an increase in online retail - but just how much has it risen and what are the implications for traditional retail stores?

Statistics suggest that online retail is quickly becoming the preferred choice for modernday consumers. Amazon’s ever-expanding e-commerce empire is now worth $702.45 billion, making it the world’s third most valuable company behind Apple and Alphabet.

In Chinese-speaking regions, Alibaba reigns dominant as one of the world’s top 10 most valuable companies, as well as its online sales and profit being more than all American retailers combined since 2015. The fact that technology companies dominate the top 10 companies list implies that society has been undergoing exponential technological advancement, consequently leading to changes in social norms in the past few decades.

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The rise in online retail has threatened traditional retail giants and brick-and-mortar stores. The UK’s high street suffered 5,855 store closures in 2017, with fashion retailers, travel agents, and estate agents taking the largest hit. For example, Toys R US have gone into administration, Clarks, Marks & Spencer and Debenhams have closed several shops, banks such as HSBC has also closed 60 branches in the UK. In comparison to Amazon’s net worth, traditional retail giant Wal-Mart is now worth only approximately a third of Amazon. Rising staff and business rates costs, as well as the consideration for accessibility and efficiency for consumers, are the main factors for retailers to close physical stores and focus on online retail.

However, maybe the story isn’t as clear-cut as it seems. According to TABS Analytics, areas such as baby products saw a sales decline in e-commerce, or that there was an increase in sales for health supplements or cosmetics both e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores. In the end, the discrepancies do suggest perhaps the story to the conflict between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores much more complex than it seems.

TECHNOLOGY

ROBOTS OVERTAKING HUMAN BEINGS Arthur Li Humans are already no longer the dominant species on Earth.

According to statistics in 2014, the number of mobile electronic devices has surpassed the number of people. The idea of superintelligent machines may sound like the plot of “The Terminator” or “The Matrix,” but many experts say the idea isn’t far-fetched. Some even think the above singularity might happen in just 16 years.

However, each computer scientist will have a different prediction for when and how the singularity will happen. Some believe in a utopian future, in which humans can transcend their physical limitations with the aid of machines. But others think humans will eventually relinquish most of their abilities and gradually become absorbed into artificial intelligence (AI)-based organisms, much like the energy-making machinery in our own cells.

Bill Hibbard, a computer scientist at the University of WisconsinMadison, doesn’t make quite as bold a prediction, but he’s nevertheless confident AI will have human-level intelligence sometime in the 21st century. If his most pessimistic guess was true, it is going to happen during the lifetime of people who were already born.

“While AI can trounce the best chess or Jeopardy player and do other specialized tasks, it’s still light-years behind the average 7-year-old in terms of common sense, vision, language and intuition about how the physical world works,” Davis said. “For instance, owing to physical intuition, humans can watch a person overturn a cup of coffee and know that a puddle will end up on the floor. A computer program, on the other hand, would have to do a laborious simulation and know the exact size of the cup, the height of the cup from the surface and various other parameters to understand the outcome.”

Once the singularity occurs, people won’t necessarily die as they can simply upgrade with cybernetic parts, and they can do just about anything they wanted to — provided that it is physically possible and doesn’t require too much energy.

An economist at George Mason University, Robin Hanson said that the past two singularities (the Agricultural and Industrial revolutions) led to a doubling in economic productivity every 1,000 and 15 years respectively. But once machines become as smart as men, the economy will double every week or month.

This rapid pace of productivity would be possible because the main “actors” in the economy, namely people, could simply be replicated for whatever it costs to copy an intelligent-machine software into another computer.

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TECHNOLOGY

ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING Justin Mok

Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a technology that builds 3D objects by adding materials layer by layer. This technology was developed in the 1980s to produce models and prototypes and it has become a widespread powerful tool. One of the crucial reasons being that shapes and parts can be made from scratch, which provides opportunities for more complex designs to be manufactured.

As President Obama stated, “3D printing [...] has the potential to revolutionize the way we make everything.�.

Additive Manufacturing has become a rapidly growing industry in recent years. The AM market was worth 1.2 billion US dollars in 2008 and it is forecasted to be worth 30.19 billion US dollars by 2022.

AM can be applied in a limitless number of ways. In the early stages, AM was used in the form of Rapid Prototyping to visualise preproduction models. More recently, owing to technological advancements, more complex designs can be realised via much simpler manufacturing methods. More durable and lighter parts are produced at a higher quality, making them eligible for use in different fields of engineering. Nowadays, this revolutionary technology is applied to aircraft, dental restorations, medical implants, automobiles, and even fashion products. In particular, the engineering field has benefitted from the increased efficiency in machines, especially in vehicles, space shuttles and aeroplanes.

Apart from the conventional method of adding materials layer by layer, AM technology can also be manipulated to meet the diverse demands, including: + a visualization tool in the design + a means to create highly customized products for consumers and professionals alike + as industrial tooling + to produce small lots of production parts + one day‌. the production of human organs

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Chief Editors

Contributors

Jason Kam Crystal Cheung

Heinberg Chan Jason Chan Kari Lam William Cheng Jasmine Hau Melissa Chan Alison Yu Daphne Yung Arthur Li Justin Mok

Newsletter Design Vanessa Tse Crystal Cheung

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Bath HKPASS is a politically neutral society and any views expressed belong entirely to the author themselves