What now for al-Qaeda?

Al-Zawahiri: what does his death mean for al-Qaeda?

Months since the death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike on 31 July in Kabul, the group is yet to appoint a new leader. Zawahiri’s death was a major symbolic and emotional blow to the group and its followers, but is unlikely to hinder its operations, jihadist media specialist Mina al-Lami writes.

"the wise man of the Ummah”

In his videos, al-Zawahiri often tries to highlight his close links to Osama Bin Laden

AL-QAEDA

one of the last remaining iconic founders of al-Qaeda

The death of al-Zawahiri no doubt struck a blow to the morale of al-Qaeda's regional branches and its followers worldwide.

The jihadist prose, poetry and emotional tributes lauding him since news of his death broke on 1 August are a testament to his standing and seniority within certain jihadist and Islamist circles.

This is not surprising. Al-Zawahiri was one of the last remaining iconic founders of al-Qaeda, and a close companion of its charismatic first leader, Osama Bin Laden, to whom he served as deputy before becoming leader in 2011.

His status as a jihadist veteran became increasingly important as most of the heavyweights of al-Qaeda's central command were killed off, mostly in US drone strikes in the AfghanistanPakistan region and in Syria. With regional branch leaders in Yemen and Mali also facing similar fates, al-Qaeda found itself deprived of iconic figures able to inspire and lead.

Al-Zawahiri's seniority in jihad, a journey he began as a young man in the 1980s in Egypt, earned him the honorary title "the wise man of the Ummah [Muslim nation]" among al-Qaeda members and supporters.

A trained physician and, like Bin Laden, from an educated and affluent family, al-Zawahiri was respected within jihadist circles for having sacrificed a life of success and comfort for the rocky path of jihad.

Also like Bin Laden, al-Zawahiri was known for his calm manner in delivering messages, often providing lengthy religious and academic arguments delivered with carefully considered reason in support of his assertions. His manner stood in stark contrast to the fiery speeches of rival leaders from Islamic State group (IS).

Boring and out of touch to some followers?

These same mannerisms and his lengthy theological lectures also meant that he could have seemed boring and out of touch to some jihadist followers – particularly the younger generation – and outside observers. This particular aspect was exploited by IS in attracting younger recruits and promising them instant action and results.

In 2014, IS's spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani called al-Zawahiri "senile" and "a joke" – marking the first time the al-Qaeda leader had been insulted so publicly and harshly by a fellow jihadist. IS regularly calls al-Qaeda "the Jews of Jihad". IS leaders' public disrespect for al-Zawahiri encouraged their rank-andfile and online supporters to mock the man they habitually call "the fool of the Ummah" (Safeeh al-Ummah) – a play on his jihadist title "wise man of the Ummah".

IS and affiliated media outlets have disparagingly referred to al-Qaeda as 'Jews of Jihad'

PRO-IS MEDIA

Al-Qaeda released multiple videos this year featuring lectures and messages from Zawahiri

AL-QAEDA

Contrary to media reports that he has been absent in recent years, al-Zawahiri had been very visible on the jihadist media and propaganda front, albeit delivering messages that seemed outdated or less relevant to current affairs and the pressing matters of jihad.

Al-Qaeda released a flurry of video and audio messages delivered by al-Zawahiri this year, most of which offered lectures and debates on ideological matters.

His rumoured death or acute illness in late 2020 – on which al-Qaeda did not comment – was compounded by the fact that subsequent al-Zawahiri messages largely failed to cite recent or current events, prompting speculation that al-Qaeda was relying on archive footage of him to give the impression he was alive and operational.

Limited impact

While al-Zawahiri's death is a major setback for al-Qaeda symbolically, his absence is unlikely to have a major impact on the ground.

Al-Qaeda, which has branches in Yemen (AQAP), Syria (Hurras al-Din), North Africa (AQIM), Somalia (al-Shabab), Mali (JNIM) and "the Indian Subcontinent" (AQIS), seems to operate in a largely decentralised manner.

This means that the day-to-day operations and decisions of its regional branches are unlikely to be dictated by al-Zawahiri himself. Instead, they are left to regional leaders and commanders who better know the local context and their own capacity.

Meanwhile, the al-Qaeda leader, or its central command, would be responsible for formulating the overall vision of the group, dictating guidelines, giving directives on key targets and issuing orders on coordinated media and military campaigns.

This decentralised structure is partly dictated by the global character of the group, with component parts dispersed worldwide; and partly the result of al-Qaeda's leadership operating under stringent self-imposed communication restrictions to avoid detection.

Unreachable

In fact, jihadists have for years complained that al-Zawahiri was absent from the scene and unreachable.

In November 2017, the leaders of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, previously known as Nusra Front, justified their decision to sever ties with al-Qaeda in 2016 – to which al-Zawahiri later objected – by saying they had tried and failed to reach the al-Qaeda leader for nearly three years, after which they made the decision themselves, in consultation with al-Zawahiri's then deputies.

Foregoing al-Zawahiri's input on such a major decision was a glaring testament to how difficult it was for regional al-Qaeda branches to contact their global emir.

In the past year, al-Qaeda's "General Command", which is responsible for issuing statements representing al-Qaeda central on key matters and directives, has been silent, another example of how the absence of al-Qaeda's central command on key developments does not seem to impact the day-to-day activities of its regional affiliates.

Nevertheless, any al-Qaeda leader, depending on how much sway he holds, can still impact operations by dictating the overall goals, attack methods and targets.

President Joe Biden announces death of Al-Qaeda Leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri

JIM WATSON-POOL/GETTY IMAGES

Possible impact

Al-Zawahiri's death will have an impact if it causes internal divisions, which is one of the reasons jihadist groups sometimes delay the announcement of leadership deaths, or if his successor makes key changes to al-Qaeda's goals and strategy. Judging from our observation of al-Qaeda in recent years, neither seems to be likely, and al-Qaeda will most probably press on with its strategy, which considers the US its key enemy.

Al-Zawahiri's leadership of al-Qaeda was always going to be overshadowed by that of his iconic predecessor, and his time in charge saw the depletion of multiple al-Qaeda branches in the Middle East and a clear drop in significant al-Qaeda orchestrated attacks in the West. But, aside from the loss of the important Syrian project, and its Iraq partners taking a different path, he did manage to keep al-Qaeda largely intact, and keep it on the map as an ongoing global jihadist threat.

Today, the group's Africa branches in Somalia and Mali are al-Qaeda's hope and the foundation of its claim to remaining a global force. The new leader is unlikely to alter that course.

Mina al-Lami leads our Jihadist Media team. For a more detailed version of this story see our website at monitoring.bbc.co.uk