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What were the key takeaways from Iran’s parliamentary elections?
from MONITOR 32
While Iran held presidential elections following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, we take a look at the parliamentary elections held on 1 March, which were marked by a low turnout. Iran specialists Arman Sharifi and Niko Kelbakiani report.
The turnout in Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections on 1 March was 41% – the lowest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
While officials and the hardline media celebrated the turnout as a success, it may have been a sign of declining public approval of the establishment, following turnouts of under 50% in both the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections.
Arman-e Melli described the absence of 36 million eligible voters as a “silent protest”
Conservatives win majority of seats
As expected, with most reformist and moderate candidates disqualified from running, conservatives won the majority of seats, with the main rivalries now falling within that camp.
Iran’s election headquarters said on 4 March that 245 out of 290 legislators had been elected, with the remainder going to run-offs in April-May.
The elected 88 members of the Assembly of Experts – who appoint the supreme leader – were announced the same day.
How did turnout vary between provinces?
According to the official IRNA news agency, 25 million of the 61.2 million eligible voters cast their ballots on polling day.
The protest flashpoint of Kordestan Province, populated by the Kurdish minority and Mahsa Amini’s home province, saw a 30% turnout . The restive and impoverished SistanBaluchestan Province, home to Iran’s Sunni Baluch minority, also heavily hit by the 2022 unrest, recorded a 43% turnout.
Tehran and its neighbouring Alborz provinces also recorded some of the lowest turnouts at 34% and 28%, respectively.
In contrast, South Khorasan and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad provinces had the highest turnouts with 64% each, while Hormozgan had a 57% turnout. Qom Province, Iran’s religious area and leading clerical base, recorded a 50% turnout.
Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said only 5% of the votes cast were invalid, contrary to speculation that there would be a much higher number.
What will the next parliament look like?
It appears that any significant rivalry in the near future will be between factions within the conservative camp, as noted by the hardline Tasnim News Agency.
The conservative makeup Speakers of the Iranian parliament since 1980 of the parliament and the government since 2021 has ensured a large degree of stability in the top echelons of power, but it has not stopped tensions between the executive and legislative branches.
In recent years, parliament criticised the Raisi administration for its handling of the anti-establishment protests and the state of the economy. This culminated in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urging “cohesion and cooperation” between the three branches of power in an April 2023 address.
Ahead of the 2024 elections, many new conservative groups made a bid for parliament, presenting themselves as alternatives to the ruling faction, which Qalibaf is a part of.
Former parliament speaker and veteran principlist Gholamali HaddadAdel, who is an ally of Qalibaf, suggested these groups were riding on the back of support for the main conservative parties.
Many conservative voices then attacked Haddad-Adel, accusing him of monopolising power in the conservative camp. Amir Hossein Sabeti also fiercely criticised Haddad-Adel in a social media post on 28 February.
What do the results mean for the Assembly of Experts?
The new Assembly of Experts, which has been elected for an eight-year term, might be the one that will elect the successor to the 84-year-old Khamenei.
The elections showed that the establishment has tried to limit the body strictly to loyalist clerics and exclude any potential dissenting voice from reformist and moderate factions.
The new assembly will have to elect a new chairman, as the current nonagenarian chairman Ahmad Jannati did not run for re-election.
How will the record-low turnout affect the Islamic Republic?
The low turnout reflects the erosion of public confidence in the establishment and in hopes for change, as Iran battles economic hardships, the fallout from violently oppressed protests, and increasingly limited social freedoms.
The state’s apparent joy at the turnout suggests that it is content with a voter base composed only of its hardcore supporters, and is increasingly less concerned by public opinion.
Supreme Leader Khamenei described the elections as a “jihad in defiance of the enemies’ propaganda”, while the late President Raisi praised the turnout as a “big no” to Iran’s opponents.
However, these elections showed disillusionment among once-loyal reformist and moderate factions, which were instrumental in boosting interest and turnout in almost all past elections.
In a surprise gesture, reformist former President Mohammad Khatami boycotted the election, defending his decision not to vote as a form of protest and to align himself with people and fellow reformists who saw the elections as unfair.
Reformist daily Hammihan noted the large number of invalid votes and expressed surprise that officials were celebrating after such a low turnout. Another reformist daily, Arman-e Melli, described the absence of 36 million eligible voters as a “silent protest”.
