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Belarus elections: rehearsal for 2025 vote?
from MONITOR 32
Some commentators in Belarus have described the recent parliamentary and local elections as a rehearsal for next year's presidential election. Belarus specialists Lance Luo and Andrey Kondratyev write.
February’s elections were the first to be held in Belarus since the 2020 presidential election, when Alyaksandr Lukashenka (Alexander Lukashenko) secured a sixth term in office and thousands of opposition activists were detained in the protests that followed.
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanowskaya (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) described the 25 February vote as a "farce". Her United Transitional Cabinet called on "democratic" nations not to recognise it, saying that the election campaign had been marked "not only by the absence of open debate and competition but also by the creation of an atmosphere of total control and intimidation".
The US Department of State condemned the vote as a "sham" which was held in a climate of "fear", adding that the "United States again calls on the Lukashenka regime to end its crackdown, release all political prisoners, and open dialogue with its political opponents".
China's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said that "as the all-weather comprehensive strategic partner of Belarus, China respects the Belarusian people's choice".
Meanwhile, Russia's Vladimir Putin congratulated Lukashenka on the "successful outcome" of the elections and "confident victory".
Only four pro-Lukashenka political parties, White Rus, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Party of Labour and Justice, were allowed to stand in the elections.
The country's Central Electoral Commission reported a record amount of early voting and said turnout was around 74%.
When casting his ballot on 25 February, Lukashenka said that he would be running in the 2025 presidential election.
Pro-government commentators reacted enthusiastically to the elections.
Political analyst Valyantsin Starychonak praised the vote, saying that "there was no destructive influence" or "powerful anti-government momentum discrediting the election processes”.
Academic Vyachaslaw Danilovich said that "all the innovations we are watching today are aimed at making the government management system more resilient to any internal and external challenges".
Commentator Andrey Mukavozchyk hailed the elections but warned that authorities have not yet secured the 2025 presidential election, suggesting that the exiled opposition could be "planning revenge". He warned that there could be a "decisive battle" in 2025.
Putin congratulated Lukashenka on the "successful outcome" of the elections
Pro-opposition commentators: Rehearsal for 2025
Pro-opposition media said that the elections were a rehearsal for the next presidential election.
Pundit Alyaksandr Klaskowski dubbed the vote "maximum security elections" in which Lukashenka "rehearsed his 'coronation'" for the 2025 election.
According to Klaskowski, the "ruler trained his team for the 2025 election which is much more important for him".
But German-Belarusian pundit Alyaksandr Frydman (Alexander Friedman), commenting on Lukashenka's 2025 ambitions, suggested that the leader may wield power through a different official position. "His statement does not mean that he will definitely run for president. Today Lukashenka simply wants us and, first of all, the West to believe that he will stand in the next election," he argued.
