Welcome
BCD Regional Freight Mobility Plan Freight and Economics Freight Advisory Committee Meeting #5 October 8, 2020
Introduction to Speakers Eric McClellan Lead Economist Columbia, SC
Evan Bigos Senior Economist Orlando, FL
Analysis Elements Freight Network – how is it doing?
Economics – Jobs, income, GRP, etc.
Prioritization Measures
Freight Movement– what, where, how?
Land Use – how and what is changing?
• existing population, employment, etc. • context for economic impacts
• Freight Economic Impacts • freight service providers • freight users: shipper/receivers
filter validation
• Regional Socioeconomics
summary data
• TRANSEARCH data (some USACE) • inbound, outbound, intra-regional (not through) • dollar value focused
application
• Regional Freight Commodities
database
Today’s Topics
econ. impacts
prioritization
mapping
Polling Question • Rank freight directions by economic significance
6
Regional Commodities Source: IHS Markit’s TRANSEARCH 2016 and USACE
Directional Importance ACOG
BCDCOG
TRANSEARCH/USACE Summary Direction Tons Outbound Inbound Intra-Regional Through Total Value, in millions Outbound Inbound Intra-Regional Through Total
Truck
Rail
Water
Other
Air
Total
15,013,564 13,413,669 8,510,723 52,135,754 89,073,711
4,432,478 11,144,727 780,056 7,550,479 23,907,740
7,809,379 14,835,998 370,126 na 23,015,503
1,036 19,198 na na 20,233
9,391 17,167 na na 26,559
27,265,848 39,430,759 9,660,905 59,686,233 136,043,746
$46,880 $28,482 $19,640 $116,713 $211,716
$10,086 $13,782 $443 $12,693 $37,005
$28 $154 $89 na $270
$10 $194 na na $204
$532 $1,498 na na $2,030
$57,536 $44,110 $20,172 $129,406 $251,224
Regional Commodities (by tons)
economically relevant
Regional Commodities (by value)
in top 10 by tons
Polling Question • What industry sector employs most in the region?
12
Stop and Pause Please unmute or type your questions in the questions box for open discussion
13
Regional Socioeconomics Source: IMPLAN 2018
BCDCOG Socioeconomics (2018) • Population: 787,600 • Employment: 489,100 • Value Added (GRP): $44.2b • Output: $83.4b • 1/6 to 1/5 of SC
BCDCOG Employment LQ Goods
Services
Industry BCDCOG 11 Ag/Forestry 0.39 21 Mining 1.40 22 Utilities 0.73 23 Construction 1.11 31-33 Manufacturing 0.62 42 Wholesale Trade 0.73 44-45 Retail Trade 0.96 48-49 Transp. 1.24 51 Information 1.31 52 Finance/Insurance 0.87 53 Real Estate/Rental 1.35 54 Prof. Svcs 1.37 55 Management 0.85 56 Admini./Waste 0.98 61 Educational Svcs 1.02 62 Health/Social Svcs 0.97 71 Arts/Entertain/Rec. 1.24 72 Accom./Food Svcs 1.06 81 Other Services 0.82 92 Government 1.08
BCDCOG Industry Composition
jobs
income
GRP
output
Freight Economic Impacts *Draft Estimates
Freight Economic Impact Process • Bridge TRANSEARCH w/ IMPLAN • IMPLAN identifies commodity-to-industry structure • TRANSEARCH provides directional freight values • Adjust for • • • •
through (and misattributed outbound/inbound) self-supplied intra-industry production economically irrelevant commodities other anomalies
• Estimate Impacts via IMPLAN • Activities • freight users (shippers/receivers) • freight service providers
• Type – direct, indirect, and induced • Measures – employment, income, VA, and output
Freight Economic Impact Summary Employment
Impact Type Direct Indirect Induced Total % of Region BCDCOG Direct % Indirect % Induced % Total %
Labor Income*
0% Value Added*
Output* Employment
96,551 42,865 39,836 179,251
$5,375 $2,257 $1,853 $9,485
$9,084 $3,789 $3,144 $16,018
$23,603 $7,189 $5,492 Labor Income $36,284
489,149 19.7% 8.8% 8.1% 36.6%
$27,288 19.7% 8.3% 6.8% 34.8%
$44,246 20.5% 8.6% 7.1% 36.2%
$83,395 28.3% 8.6% 6.6% 43.5%
*in millions of 2018$
Value Added Output
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Direct Indirect Induced
Industry Sector Employment Impacts
Conclusions • Regional Impacts • Relevant • Direction – inbound, outbound, intra-regional • Commodities – chemicals, food, trans. equipment, etc.
• Irrelevant • Direction – through (incl. repositioned in/outbound) • Commodities – secondary traffic, most waste, empty containers
• Freight Economic Impacts • ~30-40% of BCD Economy, mostly goods-related • Rest of State and southeast depends on BCD infrastructure
Polling Question • How will COVID-19 change freight?
23
Questions/Comments?
Next Steps STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING DATES
STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING TOPIC
LUNCH & LEARN WEBINAR TOPICS
June 4
Introduction to Freight Planning
N/A
July 16
Best Practices & Network Assessment
August 13
Land Use Analysis
Truck Parking & Automation
September 10
Goals, Objectives, & Performance Measures
Freight Data Analysis
October 8
Economic Impact Analysis
N/A
November 12
Draft Plan Recommendations
TBD
Smart Cities & Railroad Technology
December/ January Final Plan 25
Thank You Stay Connected!
Contact:
bcdcog.com/freight Sarah Cox, Planner BCD Council of Governments Project Manager Charleston, SC sarahc@bcdcog.com
@BCDCoG @BCDCog 26