Growth Anticipated for the Planning Horizon, 2020 to 2040 The sections that follow discuss two types of future growth — committed development and total forecasted growth — considered for the scenario planning and likely impacts analysis.
Committed Development Committed development consists of development that has been “entitled” or approved for development. A committed development project is typically either anticipated to start soon, or in some cases where early phases of a development have begun and are anticipated to continue in the future. The committed development inventory for this analysis includes a full range of development projects monitored by Berkely County — from the small (less than 10 dwelling units) to the very large (greater than 10,000 dwelling units). Most projects are residential in nature; however, a few include commercial or industrial uses. While committed development is likely to occur in the future because of the investments made by a land owner or the developer, full build out of the entitlement it is not always certain for a variety of reasons (e.g., changing market trends, developer financing, project per forma, etc.). For these reasons, staff for Berkeley County and their partners provided the consultant with statistics to assume for committed development over the twenty-year planning horizon that were adjusted for market trends or project confidence. This information is consistent with a GIS layer created to track committed developments 23 | Berkeley County, SC
throughout the county (i.e., the shapefile named Proposed Developments). Information from the GIS layer was summarized for the six growth forecast categories (control totals) assumed for the scenario planning and likely impacts analysis.
Committed Development
Quantity
Single-Family Detached
38,929 du
Single-Family Attached
3,717 du
Stacked Multifamily
7,000 du
General Commercial
855,260 sf
Office
466,140 sf
Industrial
2,573,060 sf
Growth Forecasts Long-term growth forecasting is an inherently uncertain business, typically conducted by demographers using multiple sources of data. It is particularly challenging in areas that are growing quickly like Berkeley County. Indeed, short term forecasts of residential growth developed in the past ten to fifteen years have always been exceeded by the actual amounts of growth experienced in Berkeley County or its municipalities. The consultant relied heavily on the expertise of staff at the Berkeley-Charleston-Dorchester Council of Governments for growth forecast information to include in this analysis. Four data sets were consulted to determine the most appropriate growth forecasts (control totals) to assume for each of the four alternative scenarios: •
Socioeconomic data from the CHATS Regional Travel Demand Model, which is a computer program that forecasts future year demand on existing and planned transportation facilities using anticipated land use, demographic
