DELPHI ENERGY FUTURE 2040 Delphi-study on the future of energy systems in Germany, Europe and the world by the year 2040
4
DELPHI ENERGY FUTURE 2040 Results report The final study report will be available shortly on our website: www.delphi-energy-future.com/results
2
MISSION STATEMENT The Delphi Energy Future study aims to examine how energy systems will change in Germany, Europe and around the world by the year 2040. The goal is to break down the national parameters that currently shape the debate on adapting or redesigning energy systems, particularly in Germany, and to venture a comprehensive look at the energy systems of the future from a global standpoint. What challenges are energy systems likely to face in the future? How can we design strategic solutions for problems that will only emerge as we progress through the next three decades? How can we anticipate what we do not know today? Where will be the new centres of economic growth, and how do today’s stakeholders and decision-makers see energy systems developing? The many studies on this topic have not provided us with satisfying answers: sectoral analyses have tended to view individual industries, states or resources in isolation. In our Delphi Energy Future study, we have set ourselves the target of taking a comprehensive view, identifying common ground and examining interdependencies. At the same time, our study is an invitation to formulate visionary approaches and bold ideas, and to think outside the box. We wish to offer food for thoughts and inspiration to visualise the future of the complex energy system as it might take shape tomorrow. The core question posed in the Delphi Energy Future study is therefore: What future awaits the energy system in Germany, Europe and the world in the year 2040 and beyond? This forward-looking project is a joint endeavour of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries e.V. (Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft – BDEW), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and PricewaterhouseCoopers AG (PwC).
THE METHOD: WHAT IS A DELPHI STUDY? A Delphi study is an expert survey that is conducted in two or more “survey rounds”. It combines the advantages of anonymous surveys (enabling candid responses) with the benefits of having an interactive discussion (analysing relationships and interdependencies). Thanks to their distinctive approach to structuring their questionnaires, Delphi studies provide more wide-ranging answers than traditional surveys whilst delivering less ambiguous results. We launched the interactive phase of the project in late 2014 using a classic Delphi approach by conducting indepth interviews of up to several hours with 80 recognised international experts from the energy sector and related industries (electrical engineering, mechanical and plant engineering, energy research etc.) but also with specialists in the fields of politics, science and culture, urban development and the environment, international geopolitics, civil society organisations and associations. On the basis of the projections made by the experts, we derived pointed theses, for example about the global structure of energy generation in 2040. The theses were then submitted to a panel of 350 international experts, who evaluated them from various perspectives in a written survey. For each thesis, the participants were asked to rate the development described in terms of its likelihood, timescale and regional impact. The results of the first survey round, completed in November 2015, have been made available one more time to the same group of experts to provide a feedback on their initial evaluation. During this second round of the survey the experts were asked to confirm and comment or revise their opinion on those theses where their assessment varied from majority opinion. The updated and condensed results obtained through this process provided the baseline for the development of various mini-scenarios or potential “development paths” and trends in the period towards 2040 and beyond. The study report will include these development paths which mirror the interpretations of the results by BDEW, GIZ and PwC. In addition, all data concerning the assessment of the theses by the experts will be published, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions.
3
THE RESULTS: HOW TO READ THE EVALUATION CHARTS Our Delphi study comprises a total of 56 theses, each of which describes one aspect of a possible energy future. The first sentence of each thesis contains the key statement, the participants of the survey were asked to assess, with some theses also describing additional aspects to reinforce or clarify the point raised. The most interesting results obtained for each thesis are provided in a one-page summary. For most theses, the experts were first asked to indicate how likely they thought it was that the future scenario in question would actually take place. If the respondents believed that the development was “likely” or “certain” to happen, they were then also asked when they would expect this to take place – before 2025, by 2040 or after 2040 – or where they thought this would take place, i.e. which region of the world would be affected. For this type of question the participants were allowed to indicate more than one region. The survey also included a second type of question typically used in Delphi studies where opposing trends are described by way of presenting a thesis and a corresponding antithesis. In this case the experts were asked to indicate which of the two trends they would consider more likely to take place.
4
THESIS 1
By 2040 developing countries and emerging economies will have abandoned subsidies for fossil energy sources and nuclear power in view of the significant strain on national budgets.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
8%
2%
55%
35%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
15
by 2040
58
not until after 2040
27
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
71
60
58
54 47
40
47 33
24
20 9
0
36
7
4
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
0
2
1
0
impossible
5
THESIS 2
By 2040 many governments will have notably scaled down their ecological targets as a result of a series of economic crises: climate protection will be of secondary importance, with growth and employment issues being the first priority.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
2%
9%
42%
47%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
47
Russia + CIS
ASEAN-Pacific
China
27
20
Middle East
29
40
33
Sub-Saharan Africa
40
North Africa
41
36
Central and South America
0
29
North America
20
30
Europe
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
71
60 52
49
40
42
39
20 0
45 38
18 3
2
1
9
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
7
12 6
impossible
6
THESIS 3
A: By 2040 the prices of fossil energy sources will be at a low level following a prolonged period of oversupply. VERSUS
B: By 2040 the prices of fossil energy sources will have risen drastically in response to increasing scarcity.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
4%
36%
certain thesis A
29%
likely thesis A
27%
neither of them
4%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 40
41 41 31
34
20 0
31
35 27
29
31 30 21
6
6
3
18 0
0
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
neither of them
likely thesis B
3
6
certain thesis B
6
7
THESIS 4
A: By 2040 the “shale gas revolution” will have become a global phenomenon; countries like China, Argentina, Algeria or South Africa will have become major producers alongside the USA. VERSUS
B: By 2040 the fracking boom, which started in the USA, will already be over and will have had only a minor impact on the development of worldwide energy systems. WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
6%
41%
certain thesis A
17%
likely thesis A
29%
neither of them
7%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 50
40 28
20 0
41
36 25
24
19 6
7
6
11
6
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
38 30 23
19
13
neither of them
6
likely thesis B
2
11
certain thesis B
8
THESIS 5
A: By 2040 worldwide economic growth and increased mobility will have caused global energy demand to double compared to 2015. VERSUS
B: By 2040 global efforts to improve energy efficiency will have stopped the rise in energy consumption.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
13%
47%
certain thesis A
14%
likely thesis A
24%
neither of them
2%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60
59
40
38
41 35 26
20
20 9
0
57
18
16
9
certain thesis A
16
13 14
19 0
6
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
neither of them
likely thesis B
2
1
certain thesis B
0
9
THESIS 6
By 2040 a series of humanitarian crises caused by ecological factors, such as the flooding of entire coastal areas and the resettlement of millions of refugees, will have led to the emergence of radical political movements throughout the world.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
4%
4%
55%
37%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
46 35
35 19
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia + CIS
China
23
43
41
North Africa
29
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
0
24
20
Europe
20
Central and South America
35
Middle East
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
67
60 49
40
42
48
46
28
20 0
71
3
2
3
24
6
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
3
0
impossible
10
THESIS 7
By 2040 the largest CO2-emitting countries will have takendecisive action to change course as a result of a series of ecological disasters; sustainable energy systems will have been promoted, economic and energy policies will primarily be aimed at fighting climate change.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
10%
1%
impossible
certain
27%
63%
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
70
69
64
60
40
42
36
19
17
North Africa
15
Sub-Saharan Africa
19
Middle East
China
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
Central and South America
28
20
Russia + CIS
60
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
72
70
60
57 47
40
35
30 24
20
18
20
12
0
6
6
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
1
0
impossible
11
THESIS 8
By 2040 the growing middle classes in emerging economies such as China and India will have forced their countries’ governments to adopt sustainable energy policies. Policymakers’ top priority will be to fight environmental pollution, a rising share of growing energy demand will be met from renewable energy sources.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
17%
0%
61%
23%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
24
by 2040
51
not until after 2040
25
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
67
60
59
64
47
40
41
26
20
18
15 15 14
0
22 12 0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
0
0
0
impossible
12
THESIS 9
By 2040 economic profitability, investors‘ interests and independence from imports will be the key considerations driving the trend to build sustainable energy supply systems. Climate protection will no longer be the primary driver and rationale behind this development and will only be of secondary importance. WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
5%
1%
52%
42%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
31
by 2040
58
not until after 2040
11
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
70
60 52
40
56
39
38
24
20 0
49
47
3
8
3
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
1
0
impossible
13
THESIS 10
By 2040 women, who will have gained a significantly higher influence on strategic decision-making processes in the energy industry and in the field of energy policy, will have pushed the promotion of sustainable energy use and ensured a closer involvement of a wide range of social stakeholders.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
4%
4%
48%
44%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
59
53
54
11
12
17
Sub-Saharan Africa
14
North Africa
20
Russia + CIS
20
China
22
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
Central and South America
27
20
Middle East
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
64
60 40
42 42
47
52 46
31
20 0
27
20 3
4
3
certain
3
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
8
1
7
impossible
14
THESIS 11
By 2040 a global climate regime with binding and ambitious targets for the reduction of carbon emissions will be in place.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
9%
6%
49%
36%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
17
by 2040
56
not until after 2040
27
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
65
60 45 45 46
40
36
39
24
20 9
0
41
8
9
12
certain
9
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
6
7
0
impossible
15
THESIS 12
By 2040 an effective regional system for the pricing of carbon emissions (e.g. emissions trading or a carbon tax) will be in operation.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
19%
1%
65%
15%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 100
88
80
73
71
53 38
10
7
Sub-Saharan Africa
13
North Africa
16
Middle East
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
32
27
20
Russia + CIS
40
China
60
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
75 69
60 55
50
40 35
20 0
25
20
25 10 11
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
16
unlikely
0
0
3
0
impossible
16
THESIS 13
By 2040 energy supply activities will have been nationalised given that energy security and sovereignty will be the key goals underlying national energy policies; as a result of this, states will also be engaged in energy trading.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
3%
16%
23%
58%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60 40
15
14
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa
22
Middle East
28
21
Russia + CIS
China
18
ASEAN-Pacific
27
20
Central and South America
26
North America
0
33
30
Europe
20
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
62 55
59 53
40 24 25
20 0
18 6
3
3
21
18
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
19 18 11
unlikely
impossible
17
THESIS 14
By 2040 new multilateral governance structures will have been created to facilitate the cross-border integration of energy systems and joint infrastructure investments.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
16%
1%
67%
16%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
81
60 56 41
40 26
21
Sub-Saharan Africa
23
North Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
28
27
Middle East
30
20
Russia + CIS
52
China
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
74 64
60
71 59
40 20
24
24 11
0
22
16
certain
12
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
15
unlikely
0
1
3
0
impossible
18
THESIS 15
By 2040 energy generation, power grids and energy trading activities will be organised supraregionally based on shared resources (e.g. wind power in northern Europe) without regard to state borders; national systems and monopolies will no longer exist.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
11%
4%
58%
27%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
74
60 50
46
18
13
Sub-Saharan Africa
14
North Africa
19
16
Middle East
19
Russia + CIS
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
25
China
26
20
Central and South America
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
76
60
63
61 53
40 32 25
20 14
0
6
10
20
18
6
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
9
0
impossible
19
THESIS 16
By 2040 Europe will have adopted a common foreign energy policy, including joint strategic infrastructure investments and collective supply deals with third countries for the supply of resources.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
11%
1%
61%
27%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
25
by 2040
62
not until after 2040
13
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
71
70
60
56
59
40 31
20 15
0
33
18 12
9
12
certain
12
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
1
0
0
impossible
20
THESIS 17
A: By 2040 Europe will have adopted common, harmonised domestic energy policies and achieved an effective internal energy market; a highly efficient super grid will connect the European countries. VERSUS
B: By 2040 the European countries will have re-nationalised their energy policies, with borders being closed off by means of phase-shifting transformers.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
17%
60%
certain thesis A
13%
likely thesis A
9%
neither of them
1%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 69
60
57
61
65
40 20 0
16
21 13
18
13 14 13 6
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
neither of them
3
8
10
12
likely thesis B
0
0
3
certain thesis B
0
21
THESIS 18
By 2040 states that have strongly promoted renewable energy sources will have improved their economic position enormously and will be dominating the list of most competitive economies.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
17%
1%
57%
25%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
66
12
12
10
Sub-Saharan Africa
10
North Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
26
25
18
Middle East
20
52
Russia + CIS
52
40
China
64
Central and South America
60
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
69
60
62 51
40
47
32
29
20 0
19
17
23 24
14
certain
9
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
3
unlikely
0
0
0
impossible
22
THESIS 19
A: By 2040 a growing world population and rising levels of wealth will have intensified the rivalry for finite energy resources; outbursts of violent conflicts within individual countries and between different nations will be an increasingly frequent occurrence. VERSUS
B: By 2040 improvements in energy efficiency and more sustainable supply systems will act as counterbalancing factors mitigating or preventing the scarcity of resources, which is why there will be no large conflicts despite a sharp increase in global energy demand
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
4%
28%
certain thesis A
18%
likely thesis A
47%
neither of them
3%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 53 44
40 28
20 0
0
5
4
31
27
24
19
46
43
24 14
18 9
6
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
neither of them
likely thesis B
3
1
certain thesis B
0
23
THESIS 20
By 2040 the falling demand for fossil energy sources in industrialised and emerging countries will have led to a destabilisation of producing countries.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
3%
3%
57%
37%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
47
40 31 5
Middle East
11
Central Asia
0
9
Central and South America
20
Russia
55%
Africa
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
61 55
59 53
40
43 36 27
20 9
0
41
1
3
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
3
0
impossible
24
THESIS 21
By 2040 important resources (silver, copper, rare earth elements) will be in greater demand and will have become increasingly scarce as a result of a worldwide promotion of renewable energy sources and expansion of electricity networks. Many industrialised countries and emerging economies will be competing for strategic commodity partnerships with resourcerich countries. WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
10%
1%
55%
33%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
27
by 2040
55
not until after 2040
18
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
52
54
59
40
56
39 31
25
20
19
14
0
34
6
3
7
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
0
0
impossible
25
THESIS 22
By 2040 Russia will have become much less important as a supplier of natural gas and oil for Europe compared to 2015.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
13%
2%
60%
25%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
24
by 2040
60
not until after 2040
16
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
64
60
58
59
40
41 35
20
21
18 10
0
33 23
18 3
7
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
0
6
impossible
26
THESIS 23
By 2040 the generation and supply of energy will have been decentralised and made more flexible, which will have led to the emergence of structures that are more resilient to crises and acts of terrorism.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
14%
2%
56%
28%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 70 62
59
40
40 21
18
Sub-Saharan Africa
17
North Africa
16
Middle East
26
Russia + CIS
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
28
27
20
China
60
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
64
60 53
47
45
40
30
20
24 18
15
0
35 28 28
6
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
4
1
0
impossible
27
THESIS 24
By 2040 consumers will expect businesses, products and services to be sustainable on a comprehensive scale. Non- sustainable forms of production will be considered unethical.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
17%
1%
61%
21%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
30
by 2040
52
not until after 2040
17
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
67
60
59 60 47
40 35
20 0
25 16 16
14
22
17 18 0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
1
0
impossible
28
THESIS 25
By 2040 energy consumption will have risen significantly as private households will have stepped up their use of convenience solutions (mobility, increased automation of homes, heating etc.).
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
8%
2%
40%
50%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
31
by 2040
61
not until after 2040
8
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
47
40
39
37
52 44
55
50 41
20 0
6
7
11
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
0
0
impossible
29
THESIS 26
By 2040 changing values in society will have turned the “sharing economy” into a reality; the new paradigms will be ecological efficiency, consumer restraint (sufficiency) and the dematerialisation of production.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
4%
6%
46%
44%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 54
50
19
15
10
8
12
Sub-Saharan Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
25
North Africa
22
16
Russia + CIS
20
Middle East
43
China
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80
74 60
59
40
31
20
6 0
18
3
certain non-German experts German experts
likely
unlikely
2
7
impossible
30
THESIS 27
By 2040 highly efficient “sustainable cities” will have emerged, with populations that have sharply reduced their individual mobility needs and that satisfy their energy demand by acting as prosumers in smart microgrid systems (“neighbourhood generation”).
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
10%
1%
55%
33%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60
60
56
49
40
11
10
Sub-Saharan Africa
18
Middle East
China
14
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
25
21
Russia + CIS
20
North Africa
38 30
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80
73 60
20 0
47
45
40
17
6
certain non-German experts German experts
9 likely
unlikely
0
2
impossible
31
THESIS 28
By 2040 the population’s migration into the city will have been stopped, with decentralised energy systems offering new perspectives for the development of rural areas.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
3%
6%
32%
59%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40 29
24
20 12
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia + CIS
15
China
ASEAN-Pacific
21
North Africa
23
Central and South America
22
Middle East
34
North America
0
27
25
Europe
20
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
56
40
38 30
34
61
57
53
29
20 0
0
2
4
6
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
7
4
12
impossible
32
THESIS 29
By 2040 distributed generation with renewable energies using battery storage will have led to the emergence of new democratic self-governance structures at the local level. Municipalities and social bottom-up movements will have gained momentum.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
12%
3%
60%
25%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80
57
57 46 25 9
17
14
Sub-Saharan Africa
9
North Africa
24
Middle East
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
25
21
Russia + CIS
20
China
40
Central and South America
60
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
63 64
60 53
53
40 20 0
28 16
18
29 23 23
10 11
certain
3
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
4
1
0
impossible
33
THESIS 30
By 2040 large parts of the population will have fallen into energy poverty and lost out on the benefits of the energy transition as a result of rising prices of fossil energy sources, high costs of renewable energy generation and expensive efficiency technologies.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
0%
17%
19%
63%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60
14
9
20
15
Sub-Saharan Africa
22
North Africa
19
Middle East
13
Russia + CIS
15
China
20
ASEAN-Pacific
25
North America
0
25
Europe
20
Central and South America
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
65
60
70 71
50
40 25
20 0
18 0
0
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
24 18 10
6
0
certain
25
20
unlikely
impossible
34
THESIS 31
By 2040 bioenergy technologies relying on renewable resources will have failed to succeed due to land rivalry with the food industry, a lack of acceptance by the population and economic disadvantages.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
5%
3%
57%
35%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 49 28
25
30
30
Russia + CIS
China
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
Europe
0
North America
16
19
23
23
Sub-Saharan Africa
34
20
North Africa
42
Middle East
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
59
62
59
59
40 29
20 9
0
6
3
31
34
25
6
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
1
4
6
impossible
35
THESIS 32
By 2040 the carbon emissions that have been generated in manufacturing and transporting products and services – including mobility – will be a standard information indicated on product labels.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
20%
0%
63%
16%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
45
by 2040
48
not until after 2040
8
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
69
60
59
61 47
40 20
28
24
29
24 14
0
13
15 16 0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
0
1
0
impossible
36
THESIS 33
By 2040 an “all electric society” will have become a reality. Electricity, especially power generated from renewable sources, will also provide mobility and heating, and will have displaced petroleum and natural gas in many industrial processes.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
13%
2%
62%
23%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
7
by 2040
55
not until after 2040
38
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
71 64
60
58
63
40 29
20 15
0
18
17 7
21
24
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
1
0
impossible
37
THESIS 34
By 2040 battery storage facilities providing frequency control services will have taken over the role of conventional power stations in maintaining system stability.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
11%
2%
57%
30%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
13
by 2040
57
not until after 2040
30
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
73
60
57
56 49
40
40
25
20 9
0
38
13
18 11
6
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
5
0
0
impossible
38
THESIS 35
By 2040 renewable energy sources operating in conjunction with storage units will be the generation technology with the lowest electricity production costs. High-performance customer generation facilities will be sold in retail stores and can be installed in a matter of minutes.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
23%
2%
55%
20%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
24
by 2040
58
not until after 2040
18
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
61 47
40 20 0
59 59
24
26 19
24
24 15
20
18 0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
1
0
impossible
39
THESIS 36
By 2040 thanks to new battery technologies, electric vehicles will be able to travel distances of more than 3,000km per charging cycle and will be rechargeable within a time span of no more than a few minutes by means of electrical induction.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
9%
10%
44%
37%
impossible
certain
55%
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
7
before 2025 by 2040
61
not until after 2040
32
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
50
40
42 41
20 0
47 38 39
36
41
16 6
6
14 6
certain
6
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
7
6
impossible
40
THESIS 37
By 2040 thin-film and organic photovoltaics technologies will be the “game changers” driving a decentralisation of energy generation; power-generating windows and facades will be conquering the market.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
13%
2%
70%
14%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
20
by 2040
59
not until after 2040
22
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
79 67
60
76
64
40 24
20
18 9
0
10
18
15 9
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
0
3
1
0
impossible
41
THESIS 38
By 2040 the energy supply system will be structured in a cellular way: interconnected cells and “islands” of the size of a city or medium-sized region will generate their energy from solar power, wind power, storage units and a minor share of conventional reserves.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
10%
1%
65%
24%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60
66
65
56
21
21
20
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia + CIS
China
17
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
29
23
India
20
41
North Africa
33
Middle East
40
Germany
8%
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80
77
60
59
40
27
20
13 0
18
5
certain German experts non-German experts
1 likely
unlikely
0
impossible
42
THESIS 39
By 2040 the field of conventional fossil-fired power generation will also operate on a reversed scale: formerly large power stations will have become small and flexible units, with a typical generation capacity of no more than 100MW.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
4%
51%
36%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 54
50
29
24
27
24
Russia + CIS
China
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
0
Europe
16
19
16
17
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
North Africa
42
Middle East
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
52
54
45
40
50
50 42 32
35
20 12
0
10 4
0
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
5
7
0
impossible
43
THESIS 40
By 2040 carbon capture and storage systems will have been able to reconcile the goals of climate protection with the use of fossil energy sources. New applications for stored CO2 are being developed in the field of carbon chemistry.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
2%
7%
41%
50%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60
41
34
10
7
6
Sub-Saharan Africa
13
North Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
21
17
11
Middle East
20
Russia + CIS
39
33
China
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
71
60
36
45
40
20 0
52 51
48
40
18 3
0
4
9
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
9
3
6
impossible
44
THESIS 41
By 2040 nuclear fusion will have made its breakthrough and will be providing the baseload in industrialised and emerging countries.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
1%
21%
16%
61%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40
11
10
9
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
18
17
Russia + CIS
Central and South America
21
India
14
China
11
Middle East
30
North America
0
30 21
Europe
20
Germany
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
62
56 47
40
38 28
20
16 16 9
0
66
0
0
0
certain
likely
Business and associations Civil Society / NGO
15 6
Science Public sector
22
19
unlikely
impossible
45
THESIS 42
By 2040 the operation of hydropower plants and thermal power stations with high cooling requirements will be limited due to increasing water scarcity.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
7%
4%
50%
40%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40
41 32
34
30
25
34
30
Sub-Saharan Africa
North Africa
Middle East
Russia + CIS
China
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
17
North America
0
35
23
Europe
20
38
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
53
40
49
39
45 39
24
20
47
42
24
15
0
3
0
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
5
3
6
impossible
46
THESIS 43
By 2040 the following game-changing technology will have fundamentally transformed energy systems:
TOP 5 GAME CHANGER
44%
Storage technology
24%
Renewable energies, especiall photovoltaics
11%
Information and communication technology
6%
Decentralised energy supply
5%
Electric mobility
47
THESIS 44
A: By 2040 Germany will have become the world’s leading country in the management of energy systems largely built on renewable energy sources, and will be the largest exporter of energy technology. VERSUS
B: By 2040 any hopes that the German energy transition might be successfully exported around the world will have been shattered; the supposed “model” will be considered a rather unattractive option given its high level of complexity, rising subsidies and acceptance issues.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
7%
28%
44%
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
17%
neither of them
4%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN – A/B 80 60 40
43
44 26
20 0
7
32
9
8
certain thesis A
21
likely thesis A
German experts non-German experts
neither of them
likely thesis B
3
8
certain thesis B
48
THESIS 45
A: By 2040 the African countries will have achieved independence from international commodity markets thanks to a promotion of decentralised forms of renewable energy generation, and will be developing new energy systems themselves (frugal innovation). VERSUS
B: By 2040 the high investment costs of renewable energy projects, a lack of investors and insufficient levels of qualification will have prevented Africa from “leapfrogging”. Its energy mix will be dominated by fossil sources of energy.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
5%
39%
certain thesis A
25%
likely thesis A
29%
neither of them
2%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60
56
40
39 32
37
20 13
0
35 27
29
25
16 4
3
29 30 19 3
0
certain thesis A
likely thesis A
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
neither of them
likely thesis B
2
1
certain thesis B
0
49
THESIS 46
By 2040 China will have become the world’s largest developer of sustainable energy technologies and the leading innovator in this field.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
8%
1%
65%
26%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
32
by 2040
55
not until after 2040
13
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80
67
60
61
40
27
20
5 0
24
14
certain German experts non-German experts
1 likely
unlikely
1
impossible
50
THESIS 47
By 2040 the unit price of electricity will have become of secondary importance in view of the low marginal costs of renewable energy generation, which will be dominating the market.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
23%
1%
47%
29%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
61
61 49
17
17
18
Sub-Saharan Africa
Russia + CIS
14
North Africa
22
Middle East
32
India
ASEAN-Pacific
North America
Europe
0
26
24
20
China
40
Central and South America
60
Germany
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
58
40
41
47
46 35
20 0
25
27
34 27
16
23
12 0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
0
3
6
impossible
51
THESIS 48
By 2040 consumers will pay flat rate fees for electricity which depend on their average consumption and individual supply security needs and requirements.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
10%
5%
49%
36%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
16
15
10
9
Sub-Saharan Africa
15
North Africa
21
Middle East
19
Russia + CIS
17
China
Europe
0
North America
20
ASEAN-Pacific
45
Central and South America
53
52
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
63
47
40
52 51 38 31
20 0
16
11
9
33
31
0
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
4
9
6
impossible
52
THESIS 49
By 2040 one consequence of the expansion of intermittent renewable energy generation will be that uninterrupted availability of electricity will no longer be a standard service offered by energy companies but will have become an extra service to be purchased separately by the customer.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
7%
9%
44%
40%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
49
48
China
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
16
14
12
13
13
Sub-Saharan Africa
19
14
North Africa
17
ASEAN-Pacific
20
Middle East
40
Russia + CIS
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
47
40
53
50
49
41 31
29
34
20
18 9
0
9
6
9
0
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
9
4
impossible
53
THESIS 50
By 2040 only a few technical functions, such as operation of the networks, will remain within the sphere of responsibility of traditional energy companies, while electricity will be generated by many small producers and network management will have become the domain of international IT companies.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
7%
2%
impossible
certain
31%
60%
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
55
54
11
10
8
11
Sub-Saharan Africa
17
North Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
18
Middle East
22
15
China
20
Russia + CIS
45
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
62 61 55
53
40
41 34
20 0
7
5 10
30
28
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
0
0
impossible
54
THESIS 51
By 2040 major internet companies and the data and IT industry will have become the largest energy players given their capability to process large data volumes and their ability to manage supply and demand on an automated basis.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
8%
2%
52%
38%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
23
by 2040
58
not until after 2040
18
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80 60
63 49
54 47
40
41 35
34
34
20 0
3
7
10
12
certain
0
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
2
1
6
impossible
55
THESIS 52
By 2040 the “internet of things” will have come to also coordinate power generation and consumption; all electrical appliances will autonomously report their energy demand online and respond to supply and price movements.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
8%
17%
1%
59%
23%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
before 2025
16
by 2040
66
not until after 2040
19
20
0
40
60
80
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80
66
60
55 40 20
15 0
28
22
12
certain German experts non-German experts
likely
unlikely
2
0
impossible
56
THESIS 53
A: By 2040 criminal data breaches and cyberterrorism will cause power outages and system shocks all over the world. VERSUS
B: By 2040 security gaps allowing a misuse of energy data will have been closed.
WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B
7%
36%
certain thesis A
35%
likely thesis A
19%
neither of them
3%
likely thesis B
certain thesis B
HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN – A/B 80 60 40
39 29
20 5
0
36
31 18
23
10
certain thesis A
1
likely thesis A
German experts non-German experts
neither of them
likely thesis B
6
certain thesis B
57
THESIS 54
By 2040 the power market will be characterised by a high level of disintegration, load profiled customers and real-time pricing; smart meters and appliances will enable users to optimise their consumption.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
29%
0%
impossible
certain
9%
62%
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80
68
15
19 11
9
Sub-Saharan Africa
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
Europe
0
22
20
North Africa
20
39
Middle East
34
Russia + CIS
40
India
75
72
China
60
Germany
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 100
94
80 60
64 57
52
40 20 0
36 27
32
12
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
8 10 0
unlikely
0
1
0
0
impossible
58
THESIS 55
By 2040 energy will be traded in fully automated trading systems based on complex algorithms, just like any other exchange-traded product.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
19%
2%
60%
19%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60
65 57
61
40
7
6
Sub-Saharan Africa
16
North Africa
20
Middle East
20
Russia + CIS
China
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
North America
21
Europe
0
32
India
30
20
Germany
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
66
60
57
55
50
40 20 0
43
27
25 18 19
13 13 7
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
3
0
0
impossible
59
THESIS 56
By 2040 the trend to decentralise energy systems will have resulted in a situation where the majority of energy investment projects are no longer funded by large investors but rather by small crowd- and community-based funds or micro-financing initiatives.
WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?
5%
2%
45%
47%
impossible
certain
unlikely
likely
WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)
Region 80 60
39 26
23
24
27
Russia + CIS
China
ASEAN-Pacific
Central and South America
Europe
0
North America
14
10
19
15
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
North Africa
45
42
Middle East
40
Germany
55%
India
8%
HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)
Sektoren 80
69
60 50
40
47
45
47
45
25
20 0
44
3
3
9
3
6
certain
likely
Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO
unlikely
3
1
0
impossible
60
GERMAN ASSOCIATION OF ENERGY AND WATER INDUSTRIES (BDEW) The German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Berlin, represents over 1,800 companies. The range of members stretches from local and communal through regional and up to national and international businesses. It represents around 90 percent of the electricity production, over 60 percent of local and district heating supply, 90 percent of natural gas as well as 80 percent of drinking water extraction as well as around a third of wastewater disposal in Germany.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR INTERNATIONALE ZUSAMMENARBEIT (GIZ) GIZ is a German federal enterprise offering its clients workable, sustainable and effective solutions in political, economic and social change processes. GIZ works primarily on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), but also for other federal ministries and public and private sector clients inside and outside Germany. These include governments of other countries, the European Union and the United Nations. GIZ operates in more than 130 countries worldwide. The energy sector, especially the promotion of renewable energies, energy efficiency and energy policy strategy processes, is a key area of GIZ‘s work.
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PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AG WPG (PWC) PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 184,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
PUBLISHER: German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) Deutsche Gesellschaft f端r Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC) CONTACT
Delphi Energy Future Programme Office T: +49 (0) 30-33 84 24-186 E: info@delphi-energy-future.com I: www.delphi-energy-future.com
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