AFC Enterprises

Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June 24th, 2009

AFCE daily

6/23/09

7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0

volume

© BigCharts.com

800 600 400 200

Thousands

4.5

0

Apr

May

Jun

MARKET DATA

Share Statistics (23-Jun-09) Symbol Current price Low/ High 52 weeks Average Volume Market Cap Dil. Shares Outstanding

FY2007

FY2008

% Chg

AFCE

Revenues, $ Mn.

167.3

166.8

-0.3%

$6.30

Gross margin

56.7%

56.6%

-0.1%

$2.85 –$9.56

Operating margin

28.0%

24.2%

-3.8%

124,918

Net margin

13.8%

11.6%

-2.2%

080

0.76

-5.0%

$159.31 Mn 25.29 Mn

EPS, $

Recommendation AFC Enterprises Inc. (AFCE) capitalizes on a highly franchised restaurant system, which even in challenging economic times provides diverse and reliable earnings and cash flows, with low capital spending demands. While the Company’s direct competitors underperformed during the last quarters, AFCE succeeded to outperform analyst expectations, reporting slight declines in revenue and earnings. With strong fundamentals in place and a growing market share in quick service restaurants segment, we believe the Company has a large growth opportunity, both domestically and internationally.

Accordingly, we rate AFCE with a Buy rating.

Highlights During 2008, the Company updated its menu and filled the menu gaps by adding three new menu platforms featuring seven new products - Big Deal sandwiches and wraps, Louisiana Travelers nuggets and tenders, and Big Easy chicken bowls and sandwiches, designed to address value, portability, lunch and snack. AFCE refreshed its logo design and created food-focused advertising that capitalizes on the superiority of the Company’s food and its AFC Enterprises Inc (Nasdaq: AFCE)

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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June 24th, 2009

AFC Enterprises Inc. engages in the development, operation and franchising of quick-service restaurants under the Popeyes Chicken & Biscuits and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen trade names. Within Popeyes, the Company manages two business segments: franchise operations and Company-operated restaurants.

Popeyes features spicy chicken, chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders, fried shrimp and other seafood, red beans and rice, and other regional items.

Popeyes® concept is the world’s secondlargest quick-service chicken concept based on number of units. As of April 19, 2009, AFCE operated and franchised 1,909 Popeyes restaurants in 44 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam and 25 foreign countries. Of the Company’s, 500+ domestic franchised restaurants, approximately 70% were concentrated in Texas, California, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Georgia, Virginia and Mississippi. Of the Company’s 300+ international franchised restaurants, approximately 60% were located in Korea, Canada, Turkey and Indonesia. Of AFCE’s 50+ Company-operated restaurants, more than 90% were concentrated in Georgia, Louisiana and Tennessee.

culinary heritage. The Company used national cable advertising to expand its media reach and consolidated seven regional advertising agencies to one at GSD&M Idea City.

In 2008 AFCE opened 140 new restaurants globally, exceeding its guidance of 115 to 130. These new openings consisted of 73 domestic and 67 international restaurants. Meantime, consistent with its strategic plan, AFCE refranchised and sold 14 of Company owned restaurants, 11 in the Atlanta market and three in Nashville, ending the year with 1922 restaurants globally. In 2009, the Company intends to slow its global new openings to 90 to 110 restaurants, focusing on the improvement of core operations and unit economics in existing restaurants. AFCE expects system wide unit closings in the range of 140 to 160 restaurants, resulting in a decrease of 30 to 70 net restaurant openings for 2009. As of April 19, 2009, AFCE operated and franchised 1,909 Popeyes restaurants in 44 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam and 26 foreign countries.

The Company implemented a guest experience monitor (GEM) - a survey which is now in virtually every restaurant in AFCE system - to gauge guest satisfaction. A monthly report goes directly to each location so restaurant general managers and franchisees can see the level of satisfaction among their own customers. The Company saw steady improvement in percent of guests delighted scores, which at year end 2008 were 61%, up approximately 9 points from the start. The strongest GEM scores have been for Popeyes food - quality, temperature, taste. Now the Company is working to match those results with improved marks for service, making the speed, accuracy and hospitality of restaurants.

For 2008 the Company’s earnings were $19.4 million or $0.76 per diluted share, which includes the benefit of $4.6 million or $0.11 per diluted share of other non-operating income. On a per share basis, net income declined by 5% from $0.80 per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2007. Based on the projected improvements in same-store sales, the Company now expects its 2009 earnings per share projection to be at the upper end of the guidance range of $0.62-$0.67 per diluted share. Analysts polled

by Thomson Reuters expect the Company to earn $0.66 per share in the fiscal 2009 and $0.75 in fiscal 2010.

The Company has several agreements with the King Features Syndicate Division of Hearst Holdings Inc., under which it has the non-exclusive license to use the image and likeness of the cartoon character Popeye in the United States. The Popeyes location outside the United States has non-exclusive use of the image and likeness of the cartoon character Popeye and certain companion

AFC Enterprises Inc (Nasdaq: AFCE)

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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June June24th, 9th, 2009

characters. These agreements extend through June 30, 2010.

Financial Analysis STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) Price Change

GROWTH (%)

Revenues EPS

RETURN ON EQUITY (%) TTM 5 Yr. Avg.

3 Mo.

1 Yr.

3 Yr. (Ann)

68.6

21.4

48.4

12 Mo.

3 Yr CAGR

-10.1 -16.7

-0.3 -6.3

5.2 n/m

AFCE

Ind Avg

S&P 500

n/m 75.7

7.2 5.6

19.8 20.0

Last Qtr.

P/S comparison

Total revenues for 2008 decreased by $0.5 million to $166.8 million.

Sales from Company operated restaurants were $78.3 million, representing a decrease of $1.7 million compared to 2007 and that decrease was principally due to refranchising of certain of AFCE’s restaurants. Franchise revenues were $84.6 million in 2008 compared to $82.8 million in 2007, primarily due to the opening of new franchise restaurants which was offset by a decrease in domestic same-store sales. Total domestic same-store sales decreased by 2.2% and international same-store sales increased by 4.1%, resulting in a global same-store sales decrease of 1.7%.

During 2008 the Company generated $26.2 million in free cash flow. This cash was used to repurchase 2.1 million shares of AFCE’s stock for $19 million and to repay $13.4 million on credit facility. The Company ended the year with $119.2 million in total debt. During the first quarter of 2009, the Company did not repurchase any shares of its common stock. As of April 19, 2009, the remaining value of shares that may be repurchased under the Company’s current share repurchase program was approximately $38.9 million. AFCE’s cash and investments balance was valued at $5.6 million as of April 19, 2009.

At the end of 2008, AFCE’s total leverage ratio (measured as net debt to EBITDA) was 2.7, which was comfortably below its debt covenant of 3.25 pursuant to existent Credit Facility. The Company is subject to a Total Leverage Ratio requirement of ≤ 3.00 to 1.0 in the first two fiscal quarters of 2009 and ≤ 2.75 to 1.0 in the third and fourth fiscal quarters of 2009. As of April 19, 2009, the Company’s Total Leverage Ratio was 2.76 to 1.0.

Industry analysis

Source:Reuters.com

The U.S. restaurant industry has produced 16 consecutive years of real sales growth. Key factors behind this extended growth in restaurant sales include rising population, increasing real disposable income per capita, trend toward busier lifestyles, rise in spending on entertainment, and improved availability of goodquality dining options. Over the last few years, the rapid growth of Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) chains has provided consumers a suitable source of flavorful food at reasonable prices, which offers a tempting alternative to cooking at home.

According to a Hoover report, between 1992 and 2005, fast food sales grew at an average annual rate of about 5%. The fast-food and quick-service restaurant segment accounts for more than a

AFC Enterprises Almost Family Inc. Inc(Nasdaq: (Nasdaq:AFAM) AFCE)

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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June 24th, 2009

INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) Gross profit ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil)

FY07

FY08

132.1 68.3 15.1 14.8 7.6

212.6 113.6 30.2 29.5 16.3

0.5 67.4 17.0 38.8

1.3 160.8 32.0 94.8

BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil) PROFITABILITY EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Asset Turnover Return on Assets Return on Equity

11.4% 10.5% 1.12 11.3% 19.6%

14.2% 13.3% 1.86 10.1% 17.2%

DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense ($mil) Interest Coverage

1.4 30.5% 0.8 18.5

1.2 25.2% 1.1 26.8

SHARE DATA Dil. Shar. Outst.(mil) EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % Avg Daily Volume

5.53 1.40 7.01 n/a 39,303

8.14 2.17 11.65 62% 205,803

Source: SEC filings; analyst estimates.

INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) Gross profit ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil) BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil)

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

53.3 21.0 15.4 13.3 6.4

47.9 28.8 11.5 9.9 5.0

3.3 146.2 144.4 -50.6

5.6 131.0 115.3 -33.5

Source: SEC filings

AFC Enterprises Inc (Nasdaq: AFCE)

third of the total dining industry, with sales of more than $180 billion in 2007. The U.S. QSR market is comprised more than 1,800 chains, with more than 150,000 locations with an estimated $129 billion in annual sales. Some of the largest players in this category include international giants like McDonald’s and Yum! Brands, national chains such as Wendy’s and Burger King and regional players like Jack In The Box and Sonic. More than 8o% of QSR locations are owned and operated by franchisees. International chains maintain a sizable presence outside of the United States, typically relying on a franchise system to do so. In 2007, the global QSR market grew by 4.8% and reached a value of 102.4 billion and a volume of 80.3 billion transactions.

The growing global demand from rapidly developing economies such as China and India, a weak U.S. dollar and a larger share of the grain market being diverted to ethanol production have contributed to a dramatic rise in food prices in recent years.

Because franchisers capture a portion of revenue rather than profits, smaller fast food chains that have a lower portion of their restaurants franchised are most vulnerable to cost increases. In 2009 analysts expect to see some relief in commodity costs.

Analyst opinion In recent years, the Company has devoted substantial time and resources toward developing a new strategic plan which has the goal to set Popeyes brand on a firm foundation for accelerated unit growth and enhanced shareholder returns. Implementation of this plan is underway, the Company intending to position Popeyes to ramp up new unit growth as soon as the consumer environment and credit market conditions improve.

The relative high closure rate in 2008 and 2009 guidance reflects three factors: the continuation of more stringent enforcement of AFCE’s operating standards; the closure of some units for financial reasons; and the typical annual closures due to lease expirations, trade area changes and franchise agreement expiration. Despite newer restaurants recently posting declining returns due to higher commodity costs, soft sales and higher wage rates, AFCE plans to open 90 to 110 new locations in 2009. AFCE is also continuing to build a solid relationship with its franchise owners, collaborating to move guest traffic and sales and increase restaurant-level profitability AFCE shares rose after reporting a smaller-than-expected earnings decline for the first quarter and global same-store sales turned higher for the first time since mid-2006. The peer group companies currently trade at forward Price/Earnings multiples of 4

Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June 24th, 2009

Consensus Estimates AFCE

FY 2009 31-Dec-09

FY 2010 31-Dec-10

EPS, $ Revenue, $Mil

0.66 148.2

0.75 n/a

Comparative analyses

consensus estimates are provided by Thomson Financial

Company Name 03-Jun-2009

Rev. consensus estimates, $Mil. Ticker Symbol

Revenue, $ Mn

2009 48.1 596.3 627.7 548.40 2,520 1,478 2,552 22,102 11,020

NATH SNS DENN BWLD JACK CKR BKC MCD YUM

2010

%Chg

51.1 602.4 577.9 662.00 2,545 1,562 2,639 22,879 11,232

6% 1% -8% 21% 1% 6% 3% 4% 2%

Nathans Famous Inc. The Steak n Shake Company Denny’s Corp.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. Jack in the Box Inc. CKE Restaurants Inc. Burger King Holdings Inc. McDonald’s Corp.

YUM! BRANDS Inc.

P/E Ticker Price per Mrkt. Cap. Symbol Share, $ $ Mn 2009 2010 NATH SNS DENN BWLD JACK CKR BKC MCD YUM

12.84 8.84 2.62 36.13 27.84 9.54 16.70 60.99 36.54

73.4 263.3 245.0 668.4 1,576 467.8 2,192 66,029 16,566

Median AFC Enterprises Inc.

AFCE

7.00

178.8

n/a n/a 11.91 21.51 13.07 11.63 12.01 16.05 17.32

16.68 28.52 9.36 17.54 11.46 10.15 10.92 14.66 15.55

13.07

14.66

10.61

9.33

Source: Thomson Reuters.

3%

Median 148.2

AFCE

around 13.1x and 14.7x of 2009 and 2010 earnings, respectively.

The Company is traded at a significant discount to its peer group, which makes it an attractive investment opportunity. Taking into account the Company’s new strategic plan, improving unit economics, improving the guest experience, strengthening restaurant profitability, as well as industry outlook, we rate AFCE with a Buy rating.

n/a

n/m

Source: Thomson Reuters.

EPS. consensus estimates, $ Ticker Symbol NATH SNS DENN BWLD JACK CKR BKC MCD YUM

EPS, $

2009 n/a -0.09 0.22 1.68 2.13 0.82 1.39 3.80 2.11

2010

%Chg

0.77 0.31 0.28 2.06 2.43 0.94 1.53 4.16 2.35

n/m n/m 27% 23% 14% 15% 10% 9% 11% 14%

Median AFCE

0.66

0.75

14%

Source: Thomson Reuters.

AFC Enterprises Inc (Nasdaq: AFCE)

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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report June 24th, 2009

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We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www. finra.org.

All decisions are made solely by the analyst and independent of outside parties or influence.

I, Victor Sula, Ph.D, the author of this report, certify that the material and views presented herein represent my personal opinion regarding the content and securities included in this report. In no way has my opinion been influenced by outside parties, nor has my compensation been either directly or indirectly tied to the performance of any security listed. I certify that I do not currently own, nor will own and shares or securities in any of the companies featured in this report.

Victor Sula, Ph.D. - Senior Analyst Victor Sula, Ph.D. has held the position of Senior Analyst with several independent investment research firms since 2004. Prior to 2004, Mr. Sula held Senior Financial Consultant positions within the World Bank sponsored Agency for Restructuring and Enterprise Assistance and TACIS sponsored Center for Productivity and Competitiveness of Moldova, where he was involved in corporate reorganization and liquidation. He is also employed as Associate Professor at the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula earned his Ph.D. degree in 2001 and bachelor’s degree in Finance in 1997 from the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula is currently a level III candidate in the CFA program.

AFC Enterprises Inc (Nasdaq: AFCE)

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