Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
8/17/09
CGCA daily
1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. 2100 West Loop South Suite 900 Houston, TX 77027
0.50 0.25 Š BigCharts.com
Tel: (832) 476 8941 Fax: (832) 218 3687 Email: info@cobraoilgas.com Web: www.cobraoilgas.com
6 4 2 0
May
MARKET DATA
Symbol Exchanges Current Price Price Target Rating Outstanding Shares Market Cap. Average 3-m Volume
CGCA OTC BB $1.08 $2.91 Speculative Buy 76.31 Million $76.31 Million 1,638,200
Source: Yahoo Finance, Analyst Estimates
8
Millions
volume
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The analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts’ personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. BeaconEquity.com is not a registered investment advisor; nothing contained in any materials should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. BeaconEquity is a Web site wholly-owned by BlueWave Advisors, which has been compensated six thousand five hundred dollars directly from CGCA as a marketing budget to manage a comprehensive investor awareness program including the creation and distribution of this report as well as other investor relations efforts. The report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Please read our report and visit our Web site, BeaconEquity.com, for complete disclosures.
Company Introduction Cobra Oil & Gas Company (CGCA) was formed to identify, explore, and where determined advantageous, develop oil and gas reserves. The Company is currently developing two projects: Utah Oil Sands and Lodgepole & Bakken, in Montana. In July 2009, CGCA finalized an agreement to purchase a 40% contract rights interest in the Utah Oil Sands Project in Uintah County, Utah from Enercor, Inc. These leases comprise 33,632 acres in entirety, 23 federal leases and approximately 15% of the entire P.R. Spring oil sand deposit. The purchase contract stipulates that Cobra will pay $4.0 million in common stock on the initial closing date and $100,000 in cash. Each 30 days thereafter, Cobra is required to pay $100,000 in cash until the total payment of $5.0 million is covered. $500,000 of the $1,000,000 total cash payment is optional. Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Cobra also has the option to purchase a 100% working interest and approximately 80% net revenue interest in 82,000 net acres in the Williston Basin of Valley County, Montana. The leasehold is mostly federal long-term leases with small annual rentals. The leases surround a recent Starbuck East discovery and are on multiple zone shallow gas trends (primarily Judith River and Eagle) and multiple zone deeper oil trends (primarily Mission Canyon, Lodgepole and Bakken). A major gas pipeline runs near the leasehold.
Highlights Improving demand for oil and gas World oil demand is expected to remain strong over the next two years. Population growth, closely linked to economic growth and technology improvement, is a key determinant of oil consumption. Because of the global recession, world oil consumption fell an average of 3.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) from the fourth quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009. However, the consumption decline is expected to moderate later this year as the global economy improves. Economic activity in Asia has recovered more quickly than anticipated, resulting in upward revisions in estimates. New estimates call for a 1.6 million bbl/d consumption decline in 2009. Global consumption is forecast to grow by 0.9 million bbl/d in 2010. Growth strategy focused on acquisition of oil sand properties With conventional oil becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to find and develop, many oil companies are diversifying their portfolios by acquiring interests in unconventional plays such as oil sands. CGCA acquired a contract rights interest in the Utah Oil Sands Project in Uintah County in order to capitalize on large, underdeveloped heavy oil and bitumen reserves. Oil sands (tar sands) may represent as much as two-thirds of the world’s total petroleum resource, with at least 1.7 trillion barrels in the Canadian Athabasca Oil Sands and perhaps 235 billion barrels of extra heavy crude in the Venezuelan Orinoco oil sands. Reflecting the size of Canadian oil sands reserves, it is estimated that 44% of Canadian oil production in 2007 was from oil sands1. Many countries have large deposits of oil sands, including the U.S., Russia, and various countries in the Middle East. The U.S. tar sands resources are estimated at 60 billion to 80 billion barrels of oil. The richest deposits are found in Utah and California. Utah’s in-place oil sands resources are estimated at 14 billion to 15 billion barrels.2
1. www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyvrvw/cndnnrgyvrvw2008/cndnnrgyvrvw2008-eng.html 2. Utah Geological Survey website, Aug. 2008 (from Survey Notes article, Jan. 2007, v.39, no.1.)
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Modern in-situ technology increases recovery rates CGCA plans to use an oil extraction process known as In-situ Combustion for its Utah Oil Sands project. The technology enhances oil recovery using conventionally drilled wells, with one well designated for injection, and multiple surrounding wells for oil production, or recovery. After the wells are completed, heat is introduced into the well designated as the injection well, which mobilizes the oil in place for free flow and pumping. Along with the added ease of flow, the heat creates economic benefits by upgrading the oil to a lighter grade. The heat cracks the crude hydrocarbons, vaporizes the lighter hydrocarbons, and deposits the heavier hydrocarbons as coke. The process makes the oil a more suitable feedstock for refining purposes, which potentially enhances the marketability of the end-product. Utah Oil Sands reserve potential exceeding one billion barrels of oil and bitumen CGCA has purchased a 40% contract rights interest in the Utah Oil Sands Project in Uintah County, Utah. The leases cover 33,632 acres and approximately 15% of the P.R. Spring deposit. The U.S. Bureau of Mines estimated that the P.R. Spring deposit could contain as many as 4.0 billion to 4.5 billion barrels of oil. According to an independent geological report, average oil-in-place from core samples taken from wells on or near CGCA’s leases is 32,530 barrels per acre. Applying this resource estimate across the 33,632-acre leasehold yields a resource estimate of approximately 1.1 billion barrels of oil and bitumen3. Expansion of Utah Oil Sands holdings In August 2009, CGCA completed the purchase of a 37.5% working interest in an additional 640 gross acres. The purchase price was 300,000 shares of the Company’s common stock. Pioneer Natural Resources holds the balance (62.5% working interest) of the lease. The Company has also signed a further agreement and purchased a 62.5% working interest for an additional 640 gross acres. Cobra’s purchase price was 300,000 shares of common stock. The other title holder of this lease is Questar Corporation. Option to develop Starbuck prospect in Montana During FY 2008, CGCA entered into a “memorandum of Intent” with Costal Petroleum Company, which could lead to a formal agreement to acquire certain oil and gas leases from Costal in Valley Creek, Montana. The leases involve approximately 82,800 net acres in the prolific Williston basin. In May 2008 the Company paid Costal $180,000 in exchange for a two-year option to purchase a 50% interest in the leases for $1.0 million. The leases surround a recent Starbuck East discovery and are on multiple zone shallow gas trends and deeper oil trends. According to the Company, the reserve potential for these shallow gas structures could be 260 billion cubic feet of natural gas (worth approximately $1.0 billion at $4/mcf). Huge reserves value estimates Based on prospective reserves estimates, we estimate CGCA reserves at 1.0 billion barrels of heavy oil, representing a gross value of $70 billion at current oil prices. Steam stimulation technologies should be able to recover 3. GeoX Consulting Inc., July 18, 2008.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
approximately 20%-50% of the original oil in place. For our valuation case, we estimate recoverable reserves of 300 million barrels and representing a gross value of $21 billion. The Company’s $77 million market capitalization is tiny compared to our gross reserves value estimates.
Company Overview Background CGCA is identifying short and long-term oil and gas opportunities in solid energy plays. The Company is currently developing two projects: Utah Oil Sands and Starbuck, Montana. CGCA’s projects are located in proven regions known to contain abundant hydrocarbons. The Company’s conventional oil and gas project in Montana is characterized by shorter-term drilling and production. The lower risk of this project will help Cobra in securing funding for the development of its larger, long-term oil sands play in Utah. The Company’s business plan focuses on: 1. Expanding through drilling and land acquisition. The Utah and Montana properties provide significant drilling opportunities and reserve potential, as well as opportunities to acquire additional leases and expand existing projects. 2. Identifying, financing and purchasing additional high-return domestic oil concessions that will compliment and diversify the existing drilling portfolio. CGCA’s near-term goal is to explore and develop its Montana and Utah leases.
Utah Oil Sands CGCA recently finalized an agreement to purchase a 40% contract right interest in the Utah Oil Sands Project from Enercor Inc. These leases comprise 33,632 acres, 23 federal leases and approximately 15% of the P.R. Spring deposit. Cobra will pay $4.0 million in common stock on the initial closing date along with $100,000 in cash. Each 30 days thereafter, Cobra is required to pay $100,000 in cash until the total payment of $5.0 million is covered. $ 500,000 of the $ 1,000,000 total cash payment is optional. The U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates that the P.R. Spring deposit may contain 4.0 billion to 4.5 billion barrels of oil. An independent geological report based on Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
Source: Company’s presentation
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
core samples from 11 wells on or near CGCA’s leases estimated resources at 32,530 barrels per acre, which is approximately 25% higher than the average for the entire P.R. Spring deposit. Applying this resource estimate across 33,632-acrea leasehold yields a resource estimate of approximately 1.1 billion barrels of oil and bitumen4. The Company plans to expand its Utah Oil Sands holdings by acquiring interests in several adjacent prospects in Uintah County. On August 6, CGCA agreed to purchase a 37.5% working interest in 640 gross acres owned by Enercor Inc. The Company has also signed a further agreement to purchase a 62.5% working interest for an additional 640 gross acres. North American Oil Sands Of the world’s total oil resources, more than 2 trillion barrels are in the form of oil sands. Of those 2+ trillion barrels, the greatest concentration lies in North America. Thanks to new extraction technologies and higher energy prices, North America’s oil sands resources have become economic to develop. Utah Oil Sands America’s oil sands can be found in Texas, California, Alabama, Kentucky and several other states, but the largest domestic oil sands resource is found in Utah. Utah’s in-place oil sands resources are estimated at 14 billion to 15 billion barrels, with an additional estimated resource of 23 billion to 28 billion barrels5. Utah’s oil sands deposits are in the eastern part of the state, with 24 individual deposits existing in the Uinta Basin, and 50 more deposits scattered across southeastern Utah. The state’s major oil sands deposits have overburden thickness (i.e. depth to the oil sands deposits) ranging from zero to 500+ feet, up to 13 pay zones each, and gross thickness ranging from 10 to 1000+ feet. On an individual deposit basis, estimates of oil in place range anywhere from 100 million barrels to more than 22 billion barrels.2 The P.R. Spring deposit in the Uinta Basin is a major oil sands resource. The P.R. Spring and Hill Creek deposits are both part of the same heavy oil accumulation, although they are normally treated as separate deposits. These two heavy oil deposits lie beneath the East Tavaputs plateau in southern Uintah and northernmost Grand Counties, Utah. The estimated size of the deposit is 470 sections (square miles), with 350 sections in the P.R. Spring portion and 120 sections in the Hill Creek portion. The extent of P.R. Spring and Hill Creek deposits has been delineated by the drilling of 86 shallow test wells, including 14 wells in the general area of CGCA’s leases in Seer Ridge. The drilling tests indicate that Seer Ridge is the richest part of the deposit, with an average resource estimated at 53,840 barrels per acre. Extraction technology The original process for extracting bitumen from oil sands was developed by Dr. Karl Clark, working with the Alberta Research Council in the 1920s. Today, all of the producers engaged in surface mining, including Syncrude Canada, Suncor Energy and Albian Sands Energy, use a variation of the Clark Hot Water Extraction (CHWE) process. In this process, the ores are mined using open-pit mining technology. 4. GeoX Consulting Inc., July 18, 2008. 5. Utah Geological Survey website, Aug. 2008 (from Survey Notes article, Jan. 2007, v.39, no.1.)
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
The mined ore is then crushed for size reduction. Hot water at 50 — 80 °C is added to the ore and the formed slurry is transported to a primary separation vessel (PSV) where bitumen is recovered by flotation as bitumen froth. The recovered bitumen froth consists of 60% bitumen, 30% water and 10% solids by weight. The recovered bitumen froth must be cleaned of contained solids and water to meet the requirement of downstream upgrading processes. Depending on the bitumen content in the ore, between 90% and 100% of the bitumen can be recovered using modern hot water extraction techniques. After oil extraction, the spent sand and other materials are then returned to the mine, which is eventually reclaimed. More recently, in-situ methods such as steam-assisted gravity drainage and cyclic steam stimulation have been developed to extract bitumen from deep deposits. These methods inject steam, which heats the sands and reduces the bitumen viscosity so that it can be pumped out like conventional crude oil. In-situ technologies Steam Injection
Steam injection is an increasingly common method of extracting heavy oil. It is considered an enhanced oil recovery method and is the main type of thermal stimulation of oil reservoirs. There are several forms of the technology, with the main ones being Cyclic Steam Stimulation and Steam Flooding. Both are most commonly applied to oil reservoirs which are relatively shallow and which contain crude oils which are very viscous at the temperature of the native underground formation. Steam injection is widely used in the San Joaquin Valley of California (USA), the Lake Maracaibo area of Venezuela and the oil sands of northern Alberta (Canada).
Steam Assisted Gravity
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is an enhanced oil recovery technology for producing heavy crude oil and bitumen. It is an advanced form of steam stimulation in which a pair of horizontal wells is drilled into the oil reservoir, one a few metres above the other. Low pressure steam is continuously injected into the upper wellbore to heat the oil and reduce its viscosity, causing the heated oil to drain into the lower wellbore, where it is pumped out.
Source: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/Tar_Sands_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Starbuck project, Montana During FY 2008, CGCA signed a “memorandum of intent” with Costal Petroleum Company, which may lead to a formal agreement to acquire certain oil and gas leases owned by Costal in Valley Creek, Montana. The leases cover approximately 82,800 net acres in the Williston basin. Costal has a 100% working interest in the leases and between 75.5% and 80.5% net revenue interests. Pursuant to the memorandum, CGCA paid Costal $180,000 for a two-year option to purchase a 50% interest in the leases for $1.0 million. Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
The leases surround a recent Starbuck East discovery and are on multiple zone shallow gas trends (primarily Judith River and Eagle) and multiple zone deeper oil trends (primarily Mission Canyon, Lodgepole and Bakken). A major gas pipeline is near by. More than 300 Lodgepole Reef prospects have been identified on the leases to-date. Of these, 21 have been geochemically analyzed, and four have been high-graded. CGCA estimates there will likely be 100 drillable prospects once the work is completed. In addition, on-going geological analysis has already identified eight shallow gas structures on CGCA’s leases. According to the Company, the resource potential for these shallow gas structures could be 260 billion cubic feet of natural gas (worth approximately $1.3 billion at $5/mcf).
Source: Company’s presentation
Montana formations prospects The Bakken Formation is located within the prolific Williston basin, which spreads across North Dakota and Montana and into southern Canada, and had produced 105 million barrels of oil through year-end 2007, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. In April 2008, the USGS released a report on the Bakken that estimated the U.S. portion of the formation contains as much as 4.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil and up to 3.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (TCFG). The 2008 report estimated recoverable oil reserves 25 times higher than their previous report in 1995. The USGS also released a report in June 2008 that estimated the North-Central Montana Province may contain as much as 6.19 trillion cubic feet of shallow biogenic (continuous) undiscovered natural gas. According to the June report, CGCA’s two primary Montana drilling targets – the Judith River formation and the Eagle Sandstone formation – represent combined potential for nearly 4.0 trillion cubic feet of gas. The USGS attributed the significant increase in estimated recovery in the 2008 report to better geological models, recent oil discoveries in the area, and new, more efficient drilling and extraction technologies. Advances in Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
horizontal drilling have played a significant role in making hydrocarbons in the Bakken shale both accessible and economic. Other new exploration technologies focus more on resource location, such as Oil For America’s proprietary seismic technology, which has proven 100% successful in hitting Lodgepole Reef Formation targets out of 39 times drilled.
Source: Company’s presentation
Lodgepole wells produce sweet oil and sweet gas with liquids that yields higher market prices. Production from a good Lodgepole well could generate four million barrels of oil ($200 million @ $50/bbl) and 2 billion cubic feet of gas ($10 million @ $5/mcf). The average cost of a Lodgepole well is $1.0 million, which is dwarfed by its potential revenues of $210 million. In the Bakken Formation, Montana’s Elm Coulee Field is already a major production success. The field has 350+ producing wells and combined production of 53,000 barrels of oil per day. Total production over the life of the wells is estimated to reach 270+ million barrels of oil. Located to the west of CGCA’s prospects are two major shallow gas fields – Tiger Ridge Field and Bowdoin Field – with several hundred billion cubic feet of natural gas potential. The Company’s prospects are of comparable size to Tiger Ridge and share characteristics of the Bowdoin Field. In addition to the Mission Canyon, Lodgepole Reef and Bakken Shale primary targets, additional secondary targets that are already productive in the Williston Basin include Kibbey, Charles, Ratcliffe, Nisku, Duperow, Interlake, Stony Mountain and Red River. Some of these targets will be tested en route to the primary objectives, along with the shallow gas potential uphole.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Industry Outlook World energy demand Total world energy consumption is projected to increase 50% from 2005 to 2030. Demand will be fueled by higher GDP growth over the next 25 years. Analysts expect the global economy to produce sustained growth of about 2.7% per year, more than doubling the size of the world economy to $71 trillion (in 2000 dollars) by 2030. More than 70% of increased energy demand will occur in developing nations, led by China and India. These countries will account for 25% of world energy consumption by 2030 versus 18% today. Oil demand Since 1990, worldwide oil consumption has grown at an annual compound rate of 1.5% a year. Future estimates call for a similar rate of growth for the next 20 years. Through 2030, traditional fossil fuels will remain the most important sources of energy. Oil consumption will grow 1.4% per year, moderated somewhat by increasing efficiency, particularly in transportation. Oil and gas combined will supply about 60% of the world’s overall energy needs6. Natural gas will remain an important fuel. According to the Energy Information Administration, total natural gas consumption will increases 1.7% per year from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2008 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 20307. The global recession caused oil demand to plummet by an average of 3.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) from the fourth quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009. However, the consumption decline is expected to moderate later this year as the economy improves. A smaller decline in global oil consumption is expected in 2009, with consumption falling by 1.6 million bbl/d. Global consumption is projected to grow by 0.9 million bbl/d in 2010. Oil demand, million barrels per day
Total OECD North America Europe Other Total non-OECD Former Soviet Union China Other Asia Other non-OECD Overall total
2006
2007
2008
49.6 23.3 15.7 10.6 35.4 4.2 7.2 8.8 15.2 85.0
49.1 23.4 15.3 10.4 36.8 4.2 7.6 9.1 15.9 85.9
47.7 22.1 15.2 10.4 38.2 4.3 8.0 9.2 16.7 85.9
2009E
2010E
46.4 21.7 14.7 10.0 38.7 4.3 8.3 9.1 17.0 85.1
46.4 22.0 14.7 9.7 39.6 4.3 8.5 9.1 17.7 86.0
Source: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3tab.html
In the U.S., total consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum products is projected to decrease by 650,000 bbl/d (3.3%) in 2009. Modest economic recovery in 2010 is expected to contribute to a 310,000-bbl/d (1.6%) increase in total liquid fuels consumption. 6. www.redorbit.com/news/science/384897/exxonmobil_energy_demand_to_increase_50_by_2030/ 7. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Oil supply OPEC crude oil production was estimated at 28.6 million bbl/d in the second quarter of 2009, down slightly from first-quarter levels, but down 3.1 million bbl/d from the third quarter of 2008. OPEC crude output is expected to remain near current levels through the end of the year, then trend upward moderately in 2010 in response to higher demand. Supply growth in countries such as the United States, Brazil and Azerbaijan is expected to more than compensate for the continued declines in many non-OPEC nations, particularly Mexico, the North Sea and Russia8. Oil supply, million barrels per day
Total Non-OPEC North America Other OECD Former Soviet Union China Others OPEC Overall total
2006
2007
2008
2009E
2010E
49.8 15.3 6.3 12.1 3.8 12.3 34.7 84.5
50.0 15.4 6.1 12.6 3.9 12.0 34.4 84.4
49.7 15.0 5.8 12.5 3.0 13.4 35.8 85.5
49.9 15.2 5.5 12.6 4.0 12.6 35.0 84.9
50.0 15.2 5.2 12.8 4.0 12.8 36.6 86.6
Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3tab.html
In 2008, U.S. crude oil production averaged 4.9 million barrels per day, down by 140,000 barrels per day from 2007. In 2009, domestic output is projected to increase to 5.23 million barrels per day, the first increase in production since 1991. Oil sands reserves Oil sands (tar sands) may represent as much as two-thirds of the world’s total petroleum resource, with at least 1.7 trillion barrels in the Canadian Athabasca Oil Sands and perhaps 235 billion barrels of extra heavy crude in the Venezuelan Orinoco oil sands. Many countries have large deposits of oil sands, including the United States, Russia, and various countries in the Middle East. In Canada, 44% of oil production in 2007 was from oil sands, with an additional 18% being heavy oil9. The U.S. tar sands resources are estimated at 60 billion to 80 billion barrels of oil; some 11 billion barrels may be recoverable. The resource could support 500 million Bbl/d of production. The richest deposits are found in Utah and California.
8. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/ 9. www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/nrgyvrvw/cndnnrgyvrvw2008/cndnnrgyvrvw2008-eng.html
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Distribution of the U.S. Tar Sands
Oil prices
Source: http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/Tar_Sands_Fact_Sheet.pdf
Oil prices have fallen from highs of $145.29 per barrel in mid-2008 to under $50 per barrel in early 2009. Prices rose in July 2009 for the fifth consecutive month, in part because of stronger-than-anticipated global economic activity, primarily in Asia. Market sentiment continues to reflect expectations of an economic recovery and a future rebound in oil demand that outweighs weak current oil consumption and high inventory levels. Continued production restraint by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and unrest in Iran and Nigeria, respectively OPEC’s second- and seventh-biggest oil producers, are also supporting prices.10 Crude oil prices are expected to range between $40 and $75 per barrel in 2009. Prices are forecast to rise next year as the economy strengthens. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices are projected to rise gradually and average about $60 per barrel in 2009 and $72 per barrel in 2010.
Source: www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
10. www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Natural gas Global natural gas consumption is expected to rise 1.9% annually from 99.6 trillion cubic feet in 2004 to 129.0 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 163.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. natural gas consumption will likely rise from 21.8 trillion cubic feet in 2006 to 24.3 trillion cubic feet by 2016, and then gradually decline to 23.4 trillion cubic feet in 2030. According to the International Energy Agency (EIA), U.S. gas production expanded 4% in the first months of this year. U.S. stockpiles are 22% above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the Energy Department. Total natural gas consumption is projected to decline by 2.3% in 2009 and remain unchanged in 2010. Key factors shaping the gas market over the next few months will be: weak industrial demand, continued robust supply from the U.S., more gas-fired power generation, potentially higher imports of liquefied natural gas and high storage inventories. U.S. natural gas supply and consumption, 2004-2009 (BCF per day)
Source: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm
The monthly average Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to remain below $4 per Mcf until late this year, given plentiful U.S. natural gas supplies and weak demand, particularly in the industrial sector. The Henry Hub price is projected to increase from an average of $4.22 per Mcf in 2009 to an average of $5.93 per Mcf in 2010 as the economy improves.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Source: www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html
Financial Analysis CGCA is an early-stage oil and gas exploration company with limited oil and gas activities in Montana. The Company had minimal operations and generated no revenues during the quarter ended February 28, 2009, or the fiscal year ended May 31, 2008. Income Statement, $ Q3 FY 2008 Q3 FY 2009 28-Feb-08 28-Feb-09 Revenue Total operating expenses Loss from operations Other income (expense) Net income (loss) Diluted EPS
4,781 (4,781) (1,001) (5,782) (0.000)
76,680 (76,680) (1,659) (78,339) (0.001)
9 months FY 2008
9 months FY 2009
22,208 (22,208) (2,070) (24,278) (0.000)
235,840 (235,840) (4,978) (240,818) (0.003)
Source: SEC filings, fiscal year ending May 31.
Due to increased legal and salary expenses, the Company’s operating expenses during the three months ended February 28, 2009, increased to $76,680 from $4,780 during the three months ended February 28, 2008. At February 28, 2009, CGCA had a working capital deficit of $60,921 compared to a working capital deficit of $70,103 at February 28, 2008. Current liabilities increased to $124,004 at February 28, 2009, from $119,747 at February 28, 2008. Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Balance Sheet, $ 31-May-08 28-Feb-09 Total current assets, including Cash Oil and gas properties Total Assets
49,644 49,644 180,000 229,644
63,083 63,083 180,000 243,083
Current liabilities Stockholders’ Equity, including Accumulated deficit
119,747
124,004
Source: SEC filings, fiscal year ending May 31.
The Company has yet to generate operating revenues and had an accumulated deficit of $484,871 as of February 28, 2009. CGCA’s viability as a going concern will depend on its success in raising additional capital, which will enable the Company to develop its two oil and gas projects. On July 7, 2009, CGCA announced the signing of a $6.0 million financing agreement with Swiss-based Baden Energy Group Inc. The agreement includes an option for securing an additional $4.0 million in financing, raising the total value of the deal to $10 million. CGCA has relied exclusively on equity financing and is debt free. The Company plans to use equity financing to fund develop of its Utah tar sand project.
Valuation CGCA plans to develop its Utah Oil Sands project and commence production of oil and bitumen as soon as practically feasible. The Company has a $10 million equity line to support development efforts over the next two years. Such equity line of credit can be withdrawn during unfavorable market conditions. The Company plans to use modern in-situ technologies to heat the sands and reduce the bitumen viscosity so that it can be pumped out like conventional crude oil. CGCA has secured the use of a proprietary oil extraction process known as In-situ Combustion (ISC) for its Utah Oil Sands project. Properties potential
Based on prospective reserves estimates, we estimate total resources at 1.0 billion barrels of heavy oil. Steam stimulation technologies should enable recovery of approximately 20%-50% of original oil in place; we thereCobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
fore estimate recoverable reserves of 300 million barrels. Our valuation analysis incorporates the following assumptions regarding exploration and production: • Recoverable reserves of heavy oil assumed at 300 million barrels; • Oil price at $50 per barrel in 2010 and the annual inflation rate of oil prices at 2%. • Production period of 25 years. • 40% EBIT margin; • Required exploration investment of approximately $600 million though the entire period of operation. • Required capital expenditures of $1 million-$2 million per well; • 30% corporate income tax; and • Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 15%.
Free Cash Flows Forecast Estimated Produc- Production, oil price, Revenue, $ tion year $/bbls bbls 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
275,000 1,075,000 2,575,000 4,575,000 6,575,000 8,575,000 10,575,000 12,575,000 14,575,000 16,575,000 16,575,000 16,575,000 16,575,000 16,575,000 16,075,000 15,575,000 15,075,000 14,575,000 14,075,000 13,575,000 12,925,000 12,225,000 11,525,000 10,825,000 10,075,000 9,225,000
50.0 51.0 52.0 53.1 54.1 55.2 56.3 57.4 58.6 59.8 60.9 62.2 63.4 64.7 66.0 67.3 68.6 70.0 71.4 72.8 74.3 75.8 77.3 78.8 80.4 82.0
13,750,000 54,825,000 133,951,500 242,751,330 355,849,573 473,374,644 595,458,379 722,236,114 853,846,774 990,432,966 1,010,241,626 1,030,446,458 1,051,055,387 1,072,076,495 1,060,531,056 1,048,094,968 1,034,737,225 1,020,425,934 1,005,128,297 988,810,583 960,293,505 926,451,053 890,870,785 853,496,727 810,250,264 756,729,515
EBIT, $ 5,500,000 21,930,000 53,580,600 97,100,532 142,339,829 189,349,858 238,183,352 288,894,445 341,538,710 396,173,186 404,096,650 412,178,583 420,422,155 428,830,598 424,212,422 419,237,987 413,894,890 408,170,374 402,051,319 395,524,233 384,117,402 370,580,421 356,348,314 341,398,691 324,100,106 302,691,806
Capital Present Value Free Cash expenditures, of Free Cash EBIT(1-t), $ Flow, $ $ Flow, $ 3,850,000 15,351,000 37,506,420 67,970,372 99,637,880 132,544,900 166,728,346 202,226,112 239,077,097 277,321,231 282,867,655 288,525,008 294,295,508 300,181,419 296,948,696 293,466,591 289,726,423 285,719,262 281,435,923 276,866,963 268,882,181 259,406,295 249,443,820 238,979,083 226,870,074 211,884,264
TOTAL 300,000,000
10,000,000 30,000,000 55,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000
(6,150,000) (14,649,000) (17,493,580) (4,029,628) 27,637,880 60,544,900 94,728,346 130,226,112 167,077,097 205,321,231 282,867,655 288,525,008 294,295,508 300,181,419 296,948,696 293,466,591 289,726,423 285,719,262 281,435,923 276,866,963 268,882,181 259,406,295 249,443,820 238,979,083 226,870,074 211,884,264
(4,650,284) (9,631,955) (10,002,011) (2,003,437) 11,948,618 22,761,071 30,966,864 37,018,389 41,298,903 44,132,407 52,869,987 46,893,380 41,592,389 36,890,641 31,733,354 27,270,643 23,411,378 20,076,156 17,195,813 14,710,129 12,422,515 10,421,499 8,714,141 7,259,620 5,992,849 4,866,951 524,160,012
Source: Analyst estimates
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
We estimate the present value of future free cash flows to be $524 million. Taking into account the Company’s 40% contract rights interest, we derive a $210 million market capitalization target and $2.91 price target for CGCA. We think our valuation analysis is conservative based on the following factors: 1. Our valuation case is based on oil reserves of 1 billion barrels of oil; however, the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimates the P.R. Spring deposit could contain as many as 4.0 billion to 4.5 billion barrels of oil. 2. We intentionally omitted from our calculation the potential value of the Starbuck project, which could represent a $1.0 billion gross reserve value. 3. We assumed conservative oil prices; however, some industry analysts think oil prices could rise to exceed $100/barrel within a few years. We believe the Company’s oil and gas resources could easily exceed our estimates and think CGCA offers significant value appreciation potential to its shareholders. As a result, we are initiating coverage of CGCA with a Speculative Buy rating and a $2.91 price target. However, we strongly advise investors to consider the risk factors mentioned below since the Company faces many challenges in achieving its production goals.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Risk Factors Exploration-stage company with no revenues and a limited operating history The Company is still in the exploration stage and has minimal oil and gas operations. Due to CGCA’s limited operating history, properties and related assets, it is difficult to evaluate its business prospects. The Company’s operations are subject to all of the risks inherent in the establishment of a new business as well as risks specific to the oil and gas industry. The Company may fail to develop meaningful reserves and never achieve profitability. Unproven oil and gas reserves CGCA’s future success depends on its ability to find, acquire and develop oil and gas reserves that are economically recoverable. Without successful exploration, exploitation or acquisition activities, the Company will not be able to generate revenues. However, no assurance can be given that the Company can find, acquire or develop reserves on acceptable terms. Competitive threat The oil and natural gas industry is highly competitive and CGCA competes with private and public companies for leases, funding and other resources. Independent oil and gas companies, oil and gas syndicators, and major oil and gas companies actively seek out and bid for oil and gas prospects and properties as well as for the services of third-party providers. Many of these companies not only explore for, produce and market oil and natural gas, but also carry out refining operations and market the product. Most of the Company’s competitors have longer operating histories and substantially greater financial and other resources than CGCA does. Highly regulated oil and gas industry, The oil and gas business is subject to extensive regulation under local, state, federal and provincial law relating to oil and gas exploration and development. Permits, leases, licenses and approvals are required from a variety of regulatory authorities at various stages of exploration and extraction. There can be no assurance that the various government permits, leases, licenses and approvals sought will be granted to CGCA or, if granted, will not be cancelled or will be renewed upon expiration.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Management Cobra is building a strong management team consisting of oil and gas industry veterans with proven experience in conventional and oil sands exploration and production. Max Pozzoni President
Max Pozzoni has been actively involved in the oil and gas industry for more than a decade, working for Schlumberger Oilfield Services in the United States and South America. In addition, Mr. Pozzoni has held lead management roles for two Texas-based public companies, which have raised in excess of $20 million for exploration and drilling projects and have developed several producing wells in Texas and Louisiana. From March 21, 2008, to the present, Mr. Pozzoni has served as President and CEO of CGCA. From June 1998 to June 2001, Mr. Pozzoni worked at Schlumberger Oilfield Services in North and South America. Mr. Pozzoni received a bachelor’s degree in international business in 1998 from the University of Kansas and an MBA degree from the London Business School in 2003.
Warren M. Dillard Advisor
Warren M. Dillard brings his over 40 years of financial management experience in multiple fields including oil and gas, new technologies, mutual funds, real estate and education. He is currently Chief Executive Officer of Los Angeles-based Enertech Energy, Inc. which holds a substantial land position in the state of Utah and is embarking upon the state’s first commercial oil sands production. Once serving as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Pepperdine University, Mr. Dillard successfully doubled the campus size all while being the school’s youngest senior officer at the age of 33. Mr. Dillard have since achieved and held the positions of founder and Chief Executive Officer of Global Card International, LLC., Vice Chairman of The Gordon Group and Director of Shareholders Reality Corporation and an early stage high tech company in Silicon Valley that he took public and served as Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer and Director.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report August 18th, 2009
Disclaimer DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. The information contained in our report should be viewed as commercial advertisement and is not intended to be investment advice. The report is not provided to any particular individual with a view toward their individual circumstances. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them. Our newsletter and website have been prepared for informational purposes only and are not intended to be used as a complete source of information on any particular company. 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BeaconEquity is a Web site wholly owned by BlueWave Advisors, which has been compensated six thousand five hundred dollars directly from CGCA, as well as one hundred forty-five thousand dollars from Level Up Industries, a shareholder of CGCA, as a marketing budget to manage a comprehensive investor awareness program including the creation and distribution of this report as well as other investor relations efforts. Information contained in our report will contain “forward looking statements” as defined under Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Subscribers are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon these forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to, those factors that are discussed in each profiled company’s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. We are committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled company’s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled company’s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. To the fullest extent of the law, we will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided in the report, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information we provide to any person or entity (including, but not limited to, lost profits, loss of opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any inaccuracy or incompleteness of this information). We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www. finra.org. All decisions are made solely by the analyst and independent of outside parties or influence. I, Victor Sula, Ph.D, the author of this report, certify that the material and views presented herein represent my personal opinion regarding the content and securities included in this report. In no way has my opinion been influenced by outside parties, nor has my compensation been either directly or indirectly tied to the performance of any security listed. I certify that I do not currently own, nor will own and shares or securities in any of the companies featured in this report. Victor Sula, Ph.D. - Senior Analyst Victor Sula, Ph.D. has held the position of Senior Analyst with several independent investment research firms since 2004. Prior to 2004, Mr. Sula held Senior Financial Consultant positions within the World Bank sponsored Agency for Restructuring and Enterprise Assistance and TACIS sponsored Center for Productivity and Competitiveness of Moldova, where he was involved in corporate reorganization and liquidation. He is also employed as Associate Professor at the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula earned his Ph.D. degree in 2001 and bachelor’s degree in Finance in 1997 from the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula is currently a level III candidate in the CFA program.
Cobra Oil & Gas Co. (OTCOBB: CGCA)
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