Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
CRTX daily
5/28/09
volume
Š BigCharts.com
800 600 400 200
Thousands
7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
0 Apr
May
MARKET DATA
Share Statistics (05/04/09) Symbol Current price Low/ High 52 weeks Average Volume Market Cap Dil. Shares Outstanding
2007
2008
% Chg
28.1
64.9
131%
76.8%
88.8%
1,200 bp
Operating margin
8.5%
16.3%
780 bp
Net margin
2.1%
13.9%
1,180 bp
EPS, $
0.08
1.15
1,337%
CRTX
Revenues, $ Mn.
$7.20
Gross margin
$1.20 – 8.34 32,569 $89.99 Mn 12.3 Mn
Recommendation The Company has a strong portfolio of respiratory drugs, equally competing with established products of Merck and AstraZeneca. In addition, CRTX has a maturing pipeline with a number of drug candidates to seek FDA clearance within the next two years. Solid growth prospects, merger synergies, and the favorable industry outlook, as well as future expansion plans, prompts our rating of CRTX as a Speculative Buy.
Highlights CRTX was formed as a result of merger between Critical Therapeutics Inc. and Cornerstone BioPharma Holdings Inc. in 2008. The newly formed Company is set to benefit from an extensive respiratory product portfolio; the potential for enhanced future growth and value; and the ability to access additional capital. Following the merger closing, the Company reported a number of key milestones, including the process initiation to seek potential licensees for certain technologies, including the alpha 7 mediated anti-inflammatory pathway program. Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
Cornerstone Therapeutics (CRTX) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on acquiring, developing and commercializing products primarily for the respiratory market. The Company currently markets nine product lines in the United States. Its marketed products include AlleRx, Balacet, Deconsal, Spectracef and Zyflo CR. CRTX also has a latestage clinical pipeline with six regulatory approval submissions targeted within the next three years. The Company outsources the manufacturing of all of its commercially available products and the formulation development of its product candidates to third parties. CRTX owns or exclusively licenses for 21 issued U.S. patents, 50 issued foreign patents, 25 pending U.S. patent applications and 53 pending foreign patent applications. The Company’s commercial strategy is to grow market share for its currently marketed products using its sales and marketing capabilities, acquire non-promoted or underperforming branded pharmaceutical products, and to implement life cycle management techniques. CRTX was formed in 2008 as a result of merger between Critical Therapeutics and privately held respiratory therapy firm Cornerstone BioPharma.
CRTX is currently marketing nine product lines in the U.S., including Spectracef, ZYFLO CR and the Allerx Dose Pack family of products. The drugs are oral antibiotics indicated for the treatment of: mild to moderate infections caused by pathogens associated with particular respiratory tract infections; acute bacterial exacerbation of chronic bronchitis; and allergic rhinitis. The Company’s product development pipeline includes two Spectracef line extensions, an anticholinergic and antihistamine combination product candidate - CRTX 058, and two extendedrelease antitussive and antihistamine combination product candidates - CRTX 067 and CRTX 069. The Company is targeting regulatory and new drug application submissions for the majority of product candidates between 2009 and 2011. CRTX owns worldwide rights to two FDA-approved drugs: the four-times daily ZYFLO (zileuton tablets) and twice-daily ZYFLO CR tablets. ZYFLO CR and ZYFLO (zileuton tablets) are the only FDA-approved leukotriene synthesis inhibitors for the prophylaxis and chronic treatment of asthma in adults and children 12 years of age and older. Leukotrienes are inflammatory mediators in asthma that can trigger asthma symptoms, including inflammation, swelling, bronchoconstriction and mucus secretion. With combined efforts of its partners, CRTX is promoting ZYFLO to approximately 15,000 allergists, pulmonologists and primary care physicians across the U.S. As a result of merger, in 2008 the Company’s revenue rose to $64.9 million from $28.1 million in 2007. CRTX’s 2008 net income and diluted earnings per share were $9.0 million and $1.14, respectively. Analysts expect the 2009 and 2010 revenue to reach the $84 million and $98.7 million marks, respectively. They are also looking for the 2009 and 2010 EPS to stand at $1.02 and $1.27 levels. The Company’s shares experienced a large move higher after the merger in October 2008. Since then, the stock has increased 17fold to more than $7, hitting new and new 52-week highs. Overall, CRTX’s shares have gained 172% this year being pushed by optimistic outlook for the Company as a result of merger which may create synergies with a stronger product portfolio.
Financial Analysis As a result of merger, CRTX’s full-year 2008 revenues more than doubled to $64.9 million or $36.8 million over 2007. The Company’s product sales in 2008 and 2007 mainly consisted of revenues from sales of the CRTX’s AlleRx family of products, which increased $12.9 million to $26.4 million in 2008 compared to 2007, and Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) Price Change
GROWTH (%)
Revenues EPS
1 Yr.
3 Mo. 75.2
n/a
3 Yr. (Ann) n/a
Last Qtr.
12 Mo.
3 Yr CAGR
2,276 n/m
131.1 1,337
272.8 n/m
Spectracef, Deconsal and Balacet 325 products. Additionally, net product sales in 2008 also included $23.0 million in sales of the HyoMax line of products, and two months of sales of ZYFLO CR and ZYFLO after the closing of the merger totaling $888,000. Gross profit was $57.6 million in 2008, compared to $21.6 million, in 2007, translating into 91% and 87% margins in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The Company reported 2008 EPS of $1.14 as compared to $0.08 in 2007. CRTX reported significant cash flows from operations that neared $12.6 million in 2008. As of December 31, 2008, the Company had $9.3 million in cash and cash equivalents and borrowing availability of $3.9 million under a line of credit with Paragon Commercial Bank. CRTX is currently considering financing alternatives to fund capital expenditures in the future.
Industry analysis RETURN ON EQUITY (%) TTM 5 Yr. Avg.
CRTX
Ind Avg
S&P 500
104.99 -67.37
1.19 10.56
19.20 20.35
P/E comparison
According to Business Insights, the prevalence of asthma across the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK is estimated at 53.2 million people, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 7.7%. It is forecast that by 2011, the total prevalence of asthma across the seven major markets will be 58.8 million sufferers or 8.0% of the population. Meanwhile, 56.4 million individuals are estimated to suffer from Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) across the seven major markets, although extremely low rates of diagnosis are thought to have resulted in a treated population of less than 10 million individuals. COPD is becoming a major disease burden across the seven major markets, with a forecast patient population of 60.8 million individuals by 2011, indicating high levels of future patient potential. A population of 1.5 billion is associated with the largest disease burden of any major chronic respiratory disease - allergic rhinitis. The prevalence of allergic rhinitis is forecast to increase to 1.8 billion individuals in 2011, driven by the effect of raised levels of allergenic exposure, in both indoor and outdoor environments.
Source:Reuters.com
Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
The prevalence of respiratory diseases such as asthma, in the leading pharmaceutical markets, has increased significantly over the past few decades. In terms of revenue, the asthma and COPD therapeutic area historically ranks as the sixth largest single source of sales for the pharmaceutical industry. The respiratory market alone generated revenues of $30.5 billion in 2006. 3
Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
FY07
FY08
28.1 21.6 2.4 2.4 0.6
64.9 57.6 10.6 10.6 9.0
BALANCE SHEET Cash & Equiv. ($mil) Total Assets ($mil) Total Debt ($mil) Equity ($mil)
0.2 15.9 4.7 -12.3
9.3 69.9 2.3 29.4
PROFITABILITY EBITDA Margin Operating Margin Sales Turnover Return on Assets Return on Equity
8.5% 8.5% 0.76 3.8% n/m
16.3% 16.3% 1.51 12.9% 30.6%
0.68 n/m 4.7 0.51
1.09 0.07 2.3 4.61
5.93 0.08 -2.07 n/a 9,846
12.02 1.15 2.44 3% 56,233
INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales ($mil) Gross profit ($mil) EBITDA ($mil) EBIT ($mil) Net Income ($mil)
DEBT Current Ratio Debt/Capital Interest Expense ($mil) Interest Coverage SHARE DATA Dil. Shar. Outst.(mil) EPS Book value / share Institutional Own % Avg Daily Volume
Collectively, the five largest companies in the asthma and COPD market, GSK, AstraZeneca, Merck, Boehringer Ingelheim and Schering-Plough, control more than 75% of market share. In the term of products, the leader in the large respiratory market is GlaxoSmithKline’s Advair/Serevent asthma inhaler. It does face threats from similar drugs, like Merck’s Singulair and Astrazeneca’s Symbicort.
Analyst opinion CRTX is a fast growing specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing prescription medications for respiratory disorders. The Company’s strong portfolio of products is sold by more than 67 sales representatives and plans to increase the number to 150 sales representatives within the next two years. CRTX has entered into a number of license agreements under which it has licensed intellectual property and other rights needed to develop its products or under which it have licensed intellectual property and other rights to third parties, including the license and collaboration agreements. The Company’s net product sales more than doubled from 2007 and with a strong growth in operating income and cash flow from operations. In 2009, CRTX is targeting net revenues in excess of $84 million and income from operations in excess of $10 million which assumes an increase of approximately $4.5 million in clinical development spending more than 2008. Year-to-date, CRTX stock surged approximately 170%. Currently, shares are selling at 7 times 2009 EPS estimates of $1.02 and 5.6 times 2010 estimates of $1.27. The Company is traded with a discount to the relative valuations of its peer group, which makes us to rate the stock as a Speculative Buy.
*the Company’s financial statements for periods prior to the Merger reflect Source: SEC filings; analyst estimates.
Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
Consensus Estimates CRTX
FY 2009 31-Dec-09
FY 2010 31-Dec-10
EPS, $ Revenue, $Mil
1.02 84.0
1.27 97.7
consensus estimates are provided by Yahoo! Finance
Merck & Co. Inc. AstraZeneca Plc Discovery Laboratories Inc. GlaxoSmithKline PLC Pharmaxis Ltd. Schering-Plough Corp.
Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc.
Ticker Symbol MRK AZN DSCO GSK PXSL SGP
Price per Share, $ 24.62 35.99 0.95 30.95 25.00 23.03
P/E Mrkt. Cap. $ Mn 2009 2010 51,217.0 50,913.0 94.4 70,409 324 37,297
CRTX
7.20
89.99
7.65 6.87 n/m 8.72 n/m 13.31
7.24 7.18 n/m 8.28 n/m 12.12
8.18
7.76
7.06
5.67
Revenue, $ Mn
2009
2010
%Chg
MRK AZN DSCO GSK PXSL SGP
23,428 31,741 4.77 38,755 0.91 18,283
26,867 30,918 7.17 39,359 6.68 19,267
15% -3% 50% 2% 634% 5%
Median
20,856
23,067
10%
84.0
97.7
16%
CRTX
Company Name 05/04/09
Median
Rev. consensus estimates, $Mil. Ticker Symbol
Comparative analyses
Source: Thomson Reuters; Yahoo! Finance.
Source: Thomson Reuters; Yahoo! Finance.
EPS. consensus estimates, $ Ticker Symbol
EPS, $
2009
2010
%Chg
MRK AZN DSCO GSK PXSL SGP
3.22 5.24 -0.35 3.55 -0.57 1.73
3.4 5.01 -0.41 3.74 -0.48 1.9
6% -4% n/m 5% n/m 10%
Median
2.48
2.65
5%
CRTX
1.02
1.27
25%
Source: Thomson Reuters; Yahoo! Finance.
Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
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Analyst: Victor Sula, Ph.D. Initial Report May 28th, 2009
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These forward looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties outside of our control that could cause actual operations or results to differ materially from those anticipated. Factors that could affect performance include, but are not limited to, those factors that are discussed in each profiled company’s most recent reports or registration statements filed with the SEC. You should consider these factors in evaluating the forward looking statements included in the report and not place undue reliance upon such statements. We are committed to providing factual information on the companies that are profiled. However, we do not provide any assurance as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, including information regarding a profiled company’s plans or ability to effect any planned or proposed actions. We have no first-hand knowledge of any profiled company’s operations and therefore cannot comment on their capabilities, intent, resources, nor experience and we make no attempt to do so. Statistical information, dollar amounts, and market size data was provided by the subject company and related sources which we believe to be reliable. To the fullest extent of the law, we will not be liable to any person or entity for the quality, accuracy, completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information provided in the report, or for any direct, indirect, consequential, incidental, special or punitive damages that may arise out of the use of information we provide to any person or entity (including, but not limited to, lost profits, loss of opportunities, trading losses, and damages that may result from any inaccuracy or incompleteness of this information). We encourage you to invest carefully and read investment information available at the websites of the SEC at http://www.sec.gov and FINRA at http://www. finra.org. All decisions are made solely by the analyst and independent of outside parties or influence. I, Victor Sula, Ph.D, the author of this report, certify that the material and views presented herein represent my personal opinion regarding the content and securities included in this report. In no way has my opinion been influenced by outside parties, nor has my compensation been either directly or indirectly tied to the performance of any security listed. I certify that I do not currently own, nor will own and shares or securities in any of the companies featured in this report. Victor Sula, Ph.D. - Senior Analyst Victor Sula, Ph.D. has held the position of Senior Analyst with several independent investment research firms since 2004. Prior to 2004, Mr. Sula held Senior Financial Consultant positions within the World Bank sponsored Agency for Restructuring and Enterprise Assistance and TACIS sponsored Center for Productivity and Competitiveness of Moldova, where he was involved in corporate reorganization and liquidation. He is also employed as Associate Professor at the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula earned his Ph.D. degree in 2001 and bachelor’s degree in Finance in 1997 from the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova. Mr. Sula is currently a level III candidate in the CFA program.
Cornerstone Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: CRTX)
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