…the (ever-) changing environment… or …working with the Long Now… Wakefield, 8th January 02013 Jamie Saunders ‘Sustainability in design practice’
http://longnow.org/about/
P E S T
Environment ?
POLITICS ECONOMICS / ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY POLITICS INDIVIDUAL(S) SOCIETY TECHNOLOGY LEGAL/LIFESTYLES ENVIRONMENT >> ECOLOGY
E P I S T L E
“The challenge we now face is to sustain our fragile hold on life�
“…the immediate future is usefully conceived as a bottleneck…We can visualize more clearly the bottleneck through which humanity and the rest of life are now passing…The constraints of the biosphere are fixed. The bottleneck through which we are passing is real. It should be obvious to anyone not in a euphoric delirium that whatever humanity does or does not do, Earth's capacity to support our species is approaching the limit.”
The Perfect Storm “2030 ‌ a whole series of events come together": > The world's population will rise from 6bn to 8bn (33%) > Demand for food will increase by 50% > Demand for water will increase by 30% > Demand for energy will increase by 50%
Planetary Boundaries Stockholm Resilience Centre
http://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/researchnews/tippingtowardstheunknown.5.7cf9c5aa121e17bab42800021543.html
John Beddington UK Government
2009
02010-02020 02011 UN 02050 = 1 PLANET + 9 BILLION PEOPLE
1930s Thirties
02090s Forties
Fifties
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0201002020
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02011
UN 02300 = 1 PLANET + 8.97 BILLION PEOPLE ?
"What's Up? South!" World map - Van der Grinten projection
New Directions in Place-making Wednesday 13 July, 02011
"The future is a foreign country: they do things differently there� adapted from L P Hartley
Jamie Saunders
‘Being Unreasonable is Critical for Sustainability’ “Sustainability is the possibility that humans and other life will flourish on Earth forever. Reducing un-sustainability, although critical, will not create sustainability.” ‘Sustainability as flourishing is an emergent quality of the Earth system and demands a pragmatic framework to address is absence’ Leadership-towards-sustainability
John Ehrenfeld
The Sustainability 2x2 Matrix
John Ehrenfeld http://www.johnehrenfeld.com/2011/03/back-to-basics-5-the-sustainab.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/impacts/high-end
Projected Arctic sea-ice 2070-2090 Cartographer: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
400m
500m
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
300m
600m
1999-2002 The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
Peninsula Europe: The High Ground
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
So who is attending to the connectivity of the whole?
‘Environmentalism’ or (social) ecology ? Ecological devastation or ecotopia? “…society and ecology … ecocommunities … whose boundaries and populations will be defined by a new ecological consciousness… conceived to be part of the balance of nature…peculiar to its ecosystem, with an active sense of participation in the overall environment and the cycles of nature… artistically molded to the ecosystems in which they are located… We must begin to live in order to survive… ‘Human’ as human scale… scaled to human dimensions”
…Making a lasting difference and a difference that lasts…
PLACE-MAKING PLACE-SHAPING PLACE-SHIELDING CIVIC LEADERSHIP
Civilisation building ?
LIGHTER, QUICKER, CHEAPER ?
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
Peninsula Europe: The Rising of Waters 2007-ongoing
Estimated areas Whole Peninsula: 3,315,000 sq. km. 0-5 meter mark (land lost): 95,000 sq. km Estimated Populations Whole Peninsula: 420,000,000 0-5 meter mark (affected people): 23,200,000 0-15 meter mark (affected people): 38,500,000
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
Peninsula Europe Part III A proposal for research that would enable the Peninsula Europe High Ground concept to be tested on the ground as a pure water generator and as a buffer against Global Warming, drain basin by drain basin.
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The trajectory of the drought. At a 5 meter ocean rise, approximately 95 thousand kilometers of land will be displaced and 23 million people will need to move upward. Unless there is construction of massive defense systems, a significant fraction of 2.3 million square kilometers of farming will be affected.
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
The goal of this work is to invent a new transEuropean forest from Portugal and Spain, over the Pyrenees, across the Central Massif, to the Carpathians and somewhat beyond. The concept suggests that complex, mixed forests can create a strong enough sponge phenomena in the available earths to replace, in good measure, the waters once supplied to rivers and the lands by slow summer snow and glacial melt. The core research to locate appropriate forest types will be translatitudinal and paleo-botanical.
Greenhouse Britain A Work by Newton Harrison Helen Mayer Harrison
The Harrison Studio Britain and Associates David Haley, Associate Artist Christopher Fremantle, Project Manager Gabriel Harrison, Designer
Greenhouse Britain begins as a sketch where research indicates water rise and population displacement in 5 meter increments. “If the water around Britain were to rise, how would we withdraw gracefully?�
On the Upward Movement of People Where pennine villages are designed within a new posturban landscape embedded in a created open canopy that respects drain basins, sequesters carbon, and enhances biodiversity while using hunter gatherer models to encourage the production and collection of food.
The site, about 25 square miles, where the shape of the watersheds determine in good part the shape of the meadows which in turn determine the shape of the forest. All together this new open canopy forest would sequester about 50% of the carbon used by the villages.
On the Pennine Ring, where the open canopy forest/grassland/village idea repeats itself 71 times, creating a biodiversity ring around The Pennines while housing 280,000 people.
On the Pennine Ring Finally thinking about big numbers finding that the Pennine Ring had the lowest population and the greatest open space on the island we began to think about it as a whole place with a length of 215 km with the area of the High Pennines over 300 metres equaling under 3,000 square miles and the area of a 5 km downward perimeter equaling about 3,600 square miles so we did the obvious and imagined repeating our model around this ring 80 times with theme and variations adding 4,000 people each new 42 square mile shape and so we discovered that 320,000 newpeople might live and to some extent work
in a harmonious park-like savannah-like bio-diverse food-producing open-canopy forest which by its very nature dramatically reduced the carbon footprint of all and everybody living there Then thinking about still bigger numbers as the oceans rise 5 metres about 2.2 million people will be displaced and 6,000 square miles of land covered and in this circumstance this Pennine Ring becomes an invitation to 15% of these people displaced to move into a new world a world that is marvelous
“The news is not good and it’s getting worse… “…Finally understanding that the news is neither good nor bad it is simply that great differences are upon us that great changes are upon us as a culture whether we will it or not and great changes are upon all planetary life systems and the news is really about how we meet these changes and are transformed by them or in turn transform them.” www.theharrisonstudio.net
The Harrison Studio www.theharrisonstudio.net
So who is attending to the connectivity of the whole?
â€œâ€Śsocial foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality images and understandings about futures and apply these in a range of socially useful ways; for example, to develop policy, guide strategy, avoid or mitigate disasters and pursue social innovations. Social foresight emerges when a society has the capacity to routinely take a longer-term view to inform its decision making processes. "
“Mind-shift for a Great Transformation” “Our call is for fundamental transformation and innovation in all spheres and at all scales in order to … move toward fair and lasting prosperity for present and future generations”
http://globalsymposium2011.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/The-Stockholm-Memorandum.pdf
A message From Future Generations Allen Tough
“We are future generations--everyone who will be born at some time or other after you read this message. … Cordial greetings, from future generations, to everyone … We are the people of the future -- your children's generation, and many generations even further into the future. Even though we live in a century that is very different from yours, we too are people, vigorously engaged in a wide variety of activities and projects, just as you are. Just like you, we work, play, talk, eat, laugh, hope, cry, sing, learn, worship, think, and wonder. We are very pleased that you care so deeply about the well-being of future generations. That is what we want most from you: your caring for us, your concern for our well-being, your willingness to take our needs as seriously as you take your own needs. From many decades in the future, we send you our gratitude, our admiration, and our love…” http://ieti.org/tough/articles/fg.htm http://ieti.org/tough/articles/future97.pdf
A message From Future Generations Allen Tough
We are future generations--everyone who will be born at some time or other after you read this message. ‌ OUR CORE VALUE For us who live in your future, our core value is the well-being of future generations as well as our own generation. Our caring about humanity's continued flourishing unifies us. It gives us a deep sense of meaning and purpose in the universe and in our own lives. And this core value provides an important foundation for our ethical and moral choices. For us, nothing is more important than the continuous procession of new generations. Our core value is humanity's on-going flourishing. We treasure the continuous stream of human activities and accomplishments stretching from the distant past through the present moment into the far future.
http://ieti.org/tough/articles/fg.htm http://ieti.org/tough/articles/future97.pdf
‘There are at least two kinds of games. One could be called finite, the other infinite. A finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play.’ ‘Finite games are the familiar contests of everyday life, the games we play in business and politics, in the bedroom and on the battlefield — games with winners and losers, a beginning and an end. Infinite games are more mysterious — and ultimately more rewarding. They are unscripted and unpredictable; they are the source of true freedom.’
Jamie Saunders is a Strategy Coordinator based in the Chief Executive’s Office at the City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council. He has worked at the Council since 1992 and for the last 2 years has had a primary focus on whole systems, organisational and District sustainability - beyond ‘greening’ supporting senior management, colleagues, partners and others in strategic thinking, planning, operations and cultural change. Alongside helping the Council and others face current significant challenges, Jamie is working as part of the efforts in developing a new set of organisational ambitions, operating models and ways of working focussed on the organisation as the democratic leader of place and community for Bradford District. A qualified futurist, he has an MA in Foresight and Futures Studies (Leeds Metropolitan University) as well as a BSc (Hons) in Environmental Science and Geography. He is an adviser to the Permaculture Association (Britain), a national sustainable design charity, a current Academician, Academy of Urbanism and was involved in the DEFRA funded Greenhouse Britain eco-art project by the Harrison Studio. Alliance for Future Generations 02011http://allianceforfuturegenerations.ning.com/main
“Place-making is a multi-faceted approach to the planning, design and management of public spaces…Place-making capitalizes on a local community’s assets, inspiration, and potential, ultimately creating good public spaces that promote people’s health, happiness, and well being”
UNESCO Declaration on the Responsibilities of the Present Generations Towards Future Generations 12 November 1997
Resolved to strive to ensure that the present generations are fully aware of their responsibilities towards future generations
http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=13178&URL_DO=DO_PRINTPAGE&URL_SECTION=201.html
The Future Told The Future Tamed Futures Traded Futures Transformed Futures Traversed
Bill of Rights for Future Generations
" Every person has the right to inherit an uncontaminated planet on which all forms of life may flourish. "
http://www.cousteau.org/about-us/futuregen
http://www.independent.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00641/icelandG_641692a.jpg
Casting a Green Net: can it be we are seeing a Dragon? ‘…a sustainability icon … serves to delineate a pathway to sustainability; an emergent new history capable of expressing an overall ecology of place.’ Newton Harrison and Helen Mayer Harrison The Harrison Studio