Floreat

ISSUE NUMBER 01

' C A P TA IN T OM' IL L U S T R AT ION

BY DI V INE E D JE JO V W O

06 ' C A P TA IN T OM' IL L U S T R AT ION

BY DI V INE E D JE JO V W O

04.

EDITOIAL

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BALANCE OF ARABIA?

A WELCOME FROM THE TEAM BEHIND THE

HARRY HINE EXAMINES LIFE AND EQUALITY

FIRST EVER EDITION OF FLOREAT MAGAZINE

IN THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA

06.

CAPTAIN TOM MOORE

14.

BLACK LIVES MATTER

BENJAMIN INGRAM-MOORE SHARES HIS

GABRIEL DAVIS REFLECTS ON RECENT EVENTS

GRANDFATHERS' REMARKABLE STORY

THAT HAVE REVERBERATED AROUND THE WORLD

AND HOW THE FAMILY COPED WITH BEING THRUST INTO THE SPOTLIGHT

'Floreat' magazine designed by Ian Holohan Photographs sourced from Unsplash.com Published by Bedford School. July 2020.

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NEGATIVE TERITORY JAMES CUTLER ON THE GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS AS OIL PRICES TAKE A NOSE DIVE FLOREAT

22.

BREXIT QUARANTINED HARRY MCPHAIL EXAMINES THE IMPACT AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC ON DAY-TO-DAY POLITICS

24.

FURLOUGH: FRIEND OR FOE DAVID ADEYEMI-ABERE EXAMINES

44.

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FURLOUGH

26.

TAX AVOIDANCE A CLOSER LOOK AT TAX AVOIDANCE

30.

COVID RUSSIA

BY OSCAR CALVERT

NIKOLAI SOROKIN ON THE EFFECTS OF COVID-19 ON RUSSIA

28.

LOCKDOWN LIFE THOUGHTS ON LOCKDOWN LIFE FROM REDBURN

34.

MID-YEAR MARKET RECAP

BY MR MARRIOTT

OLIVER BURRIDGE-DEAN LOOKS AT THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON STOCK MARKETS SINCE THE START OF THE OUTBREAK

40.

NEOLIBERALISM JACK O’DONOVAN ON THE CORNERSTONE OF WESTERN POLITICAL THOUGHT

44.

A STATE OF EMERGENCY

14.

JAPAN AND COVID-19 BY YOJI NISHINA FLOREAT

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E DIT ORIAL

Photo by Priscilla Du Preez on Unsplash

Welcome to the first issue of ‘Floreat' and what we

We know this first issue is only a start and we are

hope will be an ongoing opportunity for us to ‘flourish’

keen to improve each publication, so your feedback on

as Bedfordians.

the 'goods and bads' of ‘Floreat’ would be very welcome.

Worldwide, it has been a turbulent few months, as

Our ambition is to make this magazine a Bedford version

COVID-19 continues to dictate to a large extent how we

of the Spectator and other similar publications, with an

lead our lives, even though lockdowns have been eased or

array of interesting and balanced articles, which should

ended in certain countries. In parallel to this life-changing

allow our political and economic knowledge and inte-

virus, protests have taken place and continue around

rests to flourish.

the globe in the fight for greater racial equality. And of

We want to thank Mr Waterhouse for overseeing

course, an overarching unknown of economic recovery

our efforts to create ‘Floreat’: without his support this

is making the masses question when and how we will

project would not have come to fruition. Our thanks

return to a stable norm. In the meantime, life progres-

also go to Mr Hodgson for allowing the magazine to go

ses and we must move forwards, taking advantage of

ahead and for his advertisement of it in advance. And

these unusual times where we can - bringing us to the

lastly, thank you to all those who have kindly contribu-

purpose of this magazine.

ted to this first issue in different ways - your efforts are

‘Floreat' aims to provide a student’s perspective on

much appreciated.

the burning issues of today around the world, which we

Finally, ‘Floreat’ is entirely dependent on contribu-

see covered so extensively in media of all types. In this

tions from you, so please be generous with your time

first issue of ‘Floreat', we offer a wide range of political

and let us know your thoughts and views on any poli-

and economic topics, from Captain Sir Tom Moore to the

tical or economic issue, or on any topic that you think

effects of corporate tax avoidance in the 21st Century.

would improve our understanding of this increasingly

Looking to the future, our intent is to produce an issue of

complex world of ours.

‘Floreat’ each term, always with the main focus on poli-

Without further ado, we hope you enjoy this first

tics and economics, but also offering a small number of

edition and we look forward to working to take ‘Floreat’

more diverse topics as and when appropriate.

from strength to strength. Thank you for your support.

HARRY HINE, ARUN NANDA AND GABRIEL DAVIS

FLOREAT SCHOLA BEDFORDIENSIS

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I L L UST R AT I O N BY D I VI N E E D JE JO V W O

C A P TA I N T O M MOORE When Gabriel, Harry and Arun asked me to write an article, I was all for it.

I was very much hoping I could shed a little light on how the whole Captain Tom phenomenon took place. The journey was not a pre-emptive campaign.

It truly was an organic family event.

BY BENJAMIN INGRAM-MOORE

it, this was Monday 6th April. On Tuesday the 7th

FROM VERY HUMBLE BEGINNINGS

April, the phones started to ring, by Wednesday the I don’t think anyone could have predicted what would

8th April Grandpa had been interviewed by MKFM, 3

come from sharing a family story that had the sole

Counties Radio and Anglia TV, who came to the house.

intent to give a little joy and raise some money, to

By Friday 10th April, we were live on BBC Breakfast,

support the NHS COVID 19 appeal. For me and my

the rest of the journey has been well documented,

family, that happy chat whilst having a BBQ has chan-

with Grandpa and Mum being interviewed live over

ged our lives and put us at the centre of the biggest positive news story around the world.

350 times, I have been interviewed live and pre recorded over 50 times and Georgia over 20.

In the very early days, we rallied as a family and managed the sudden and profound media interest

T HE E A R LY DAYS

that quickly became global; The story of Captain Sir The essence of the story is that Dad challenged

Tom has been covered around the world; people in 163

Grandpa to walk 100 laps of the driveway by his 100th

countries donated. I can safely say we lived off adre-

birthday, and we would pay him £1 per lap. Mum said

nalin and for Mum and Dad it was wine! My Mum,

why don't we set up a Just Giving page and raise some

Dad and sister Georgia,11, sat around our kitchen table

money for the NHS, Grandpa thought it was an ama-

managing what quickly turned into a tsunami of

zing idea. We agreed that we would give our fundrai-

emails, phone calls and posts, (our systems started

sing venture a stretch target of £1000, mum worked

to slow down when we had received over 1m emails).

with one of the Maytrix team to create a Press Release

My Grandpa Tom and my mother looked down

about Grandpa, a little bit about his life and the idea

the lens of the camera, with over 20 interviews a day,

behind the fund raising. We sent the press release

(to date over 350 including with Europe, South & North

to our local contacts, and didn’t think more about

America, Asia including Russia, Africa & Australasia)

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BENJAMIN PICTURED WITH HIS GRANDFATHER - CAPTAIN TOM MOORE - AND A PRINT SHOWING THE GREAT HALL PACKED FULL OF BIRTHDAY CARDS FROM WELL-WISHERS

my father and mother were also doing their best to

situation, we drew on everyone’s skills and played to all

manage their business: Maytrix. I think, for me this was

our strengths. My Dad, a chartered accountant, created a

one of the most incredible experiences of my life and

media schedule with the help of one of the Maytrix team,

something I definitely learned a great deal from. The

as they managed the influx of media requests. I mana-

Family pulling together.

During our fundraising journey, the entire family

ged the social media channels, Georgia took on meeting, greeting, hospitality and taking care of the dogs!

learnt skills we had never anticipated. “Tell me and I for-

R E A C HIN G O U T F O R S UP P O R T

get. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.”

Benjamin Franklin. The Captain Tom story evolved in no small part, due to how involved we were as a family, and

I must be very clear here, that most of the UK Media

this was one critical ingredient in the recipe for success.

were really very respectful and supportive, it was simply

We all became closer than close, relying on each other

the volume of requests that was the problem. Michael

physically and emotionally.

Ball was a huge support to the entire family, coaching us on how to handle many aspects of global attention.

Chris Evan’s Frothy Coffee Man, leapt to our aid and

ME D I A F R E N Z Y

introduced us to Gemma, who has become the glue We are not media trained, yes, my parents have deli-

for our new life. Nick Knowles made contact through a

vered presentations and been interviewed, but we have

friend, to offer his help with press intrusion. Whilst we

not had any formal training or experience. One of the

were talking, my Mum told him that we really needed

resulting traps that we fell into was agreeing to far too

somebody to help manage the ever increasing media

many interviews, driven entirely by our desire to raise

frenzy, he said he knew exactly the person, he was sure

more money for the appeal, we just didn’t want to stop

she would help pro bono. Within minutes, Megan Carver,

out of fear that the donations would stop. We realised

PR agent to the stars of today from Carver PR called ,

that we needed to take some control and manage the

and told mum she would immediately represent us (we

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wanted to hug her!). Within the first minute of them telling the media that they represented us, they had 1000 emails; they are still valiantly and expertly managing Captain Sir Tom. Adam and Eve, communications agency of the decade swung in, also Pro Bono to help create The Captain Tom Foundation.

LEGACY We realised very quickly that it was our duty and responsibility to react and respond to the immense swell of kindness and generosity handed to Sir Tom and the family. We also knew that we had to create legacy.

Whilst Tom is fit as a fiddle, we must all appreciate he is 100 years old. When a reporter asked him, what has been his greatest achievement, he said ‘I think that is rather hard to answer but I would have to say these recent events.’

This gave us motivation to start the new chapter of Captain Tom’s journey, thus we have created and set up the Captain Tom Foundation. Our mission; “To Inspire Hope where it is needed most.”

As “Tomorrow Will be a Good Day”.

- Captain Sir Tom Moore. www.captaintom.org

“ T O INSPIRE H O P E W H E R E IT IS NEEDED M O S T.”

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PHOTO BY REZKI TRIANTO ON UNSPLASH

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BALANCE OF ARABIA? ARTICLE AND WORDS BY HARRY HINE Saudi Arabia was recently ranked by a World Bank

It would appear, therefore, that women must be under

survey as 131st out of 190 nations for female empower-

male guardianship for the duration of their lives, whe-

ment, which would suggest that its track record for

ther married or not. However, the Quran also has four

gender inequality is not that impressive. In spite of its

verses where women are considered equal to men, for

enormous wealth, therefore, it would appear that this

example 3:195 which states “I do not waste the work of

powerful Middle eastern nation still has a comparatively

any worker among you, whether male or female; you are

unemancipated society. I am no expert in either gen-

all on the same footing”. In reality, and until recently,

der equality or Saudi Arabia but I hope that this article

Sharia Law denied women freedom of choice in a num-

will provide some food for thought and perhaps it will

ber ways, including not being allowed to drive or travel

encourage you to investigate these topics further. In this

abroad alone. This would seem to be overt gender ine-

article, I will explore: reasons for gender inequality in

quality, at least by Western standards.

Saudi Arabia; improvements that the Saudis have made

The second reason for gender inequality is a combi-

in recent years; and some thoughts on why this leading

nation of demographics and political disempowerment.

Middle Eastern country should continue to work towards

Currently the Saudi Arabian population is around 34

a more equal society but why, moving forwards, we

million, of which 19.6 million are men and 14.5 million are

should not necessarily be too hopeful of rapid progress.

women (42.60% of the total population). Even though

Firstly, what is gender inequality? Oxford Reference

Saudi women received the vote in 2015 (almost 90 years

defines gender inequality as a ‘social process by which

after British women), the higher proportion of voting

people are treated differently and disadvantageously,

men versus voting women to date and, in particular, the

under similar circumstances, on the basis of gender’.

limited influence of municipal elections in an absolutist

Put simply, gender inequality is discrimination against

state (elections were only introduced early in this cen-

a specific gender.

tury) have made it difficult for women to bring about

For several decades, Saudi Arabia has been criti-

change by political means. Closer inspection of demo-

cised for its poor human rights record, including pro-

graphics in the diagram below indicates that, in the

nounced gender discrimination. In my view, there are

age bracket 0-29, the male to female ratio is close to 1:1,

two main reasons for this criticism. The first reason is

meaning that males in this age range are not numeri-

the religious regime that the Saudis follow as Muslims,

cally dominant. However from the age of 30-64 there are

which the Saudi people must adhere to by law. Many

noticeably more men than women. Why is this signifi-

Muslims regard Saudi Arabia as the leading nation of

cant? Because men of this latter age group are perhaps

Islam in the world, as it is home to the holy sites of Mecca

more traditional, more aligned to their religion and less

and Medina, where Muhammad, the messenger of the

seized with the need to have more political power than

Islamic faith, lived and passed away. Saudi Arabia is an

they currently have as voters. While this older genera-

absolute monarchy and it has no official constitution,

tion continues to dominate positions of power in Saudi

although the Quran, the Holy Book of Islam, is regarded

Arabia, and while it seems content with (or resigned

as its constitution. The religious code that Saudi Arabia

to) having limited electoral power, I believe that radical

follows is Wahhabi Sharia Law, which guides Muslims

change in gender equality is less likely. It may be that

on how to live their lives, including prayers and fasting.

this powerful Gulf nation has to wait for the next gene-

Sharia Law is based in part on the Quran. Within this law,

ration, with a more balanced demographic (and a more

women are regarded as minors under the control of male

enlightened ruler?), to be given greater electoral clout in

guardians, with Quran 4:34 stating that the supremacy

order to bring about real transformation. Overall, there-

of the man is the will of Allah and it is predestined that

fore, it would seem that most of the progress made so

women should live as submissive and obedient wives.

far to rebalance gender equality has been the result of

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Western pressure on the Saudi regime, rather than an obvious appetitive for change internally. So what actual progress has been made in advancing gender equality in Saudi Arabia?

In August 2013 Saudi Arabia criminalised sexual harassment both in public and in private, with the aims of “fighting the crime of harassment, preventing it, punishing perpetrators and protecting victims in order to preserve privacy, dignity and individual freedoms�.

Domestic violence has long been a significant problem in Saudi Arabia but has this change in the law made a positive impact? The following statistics might suggest otherwise. Over a one-year period ending in October 2015, the Ministry of Labour and Social Development reported that it had encountered 8,016 cases of physical and psychological abuse, many of which involved violence between spouses. Correspondingly, very few incidents of harassment seem to end up in the Saudi courts. In 2017, for example, only 59 out of 1059 cases were deemed as domestic violence in Saudi law. And even allowing for more than a handful of years for the law to bed in, by 2020 it was estimated that 35% of Saudi women had experienced violence. It appears, therefore, that the success of the law has been limited and domestic violence remains a problem, which perhaps is not likely to reduce significantly until either the courts become tougher and / or male guardianship is removed from day-to-day life or is substantially eased. This latter action would represent a marked departure from Sharia Law, which might well be intolerable for the Saudi people.

Another restriction experienced by women in Saudi Arabia, imposed by the Interior Ministry, was the inability to apply for a passport or travel outside the bounds of the country without the permission of male guardians.

In extreme cases, women were even prevented from leaving their homes without their guardians’ permission.

In addition, male guardians could seek a court order for the female to return to the family home. However, as of August 2019 women are now able to apply for a passport and travel abroad on their own, which has certainly helped to redress gender inequality.

As for female employment, a labour code, introduced

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in 2005, removed the legal requirement for gender segre-

by this natural resource, which currently accounts for a

gation in the work place. However, the law is vague

massive 42% of its GDP. Oil to an extent is also starting

and segregation is still widespread, which can impair

to be replaced by renewable sources of energy, such as

a woman’s contribution at work. Indeed, females only

wind, waves and sunlight. For some time now, there-

make up 19.1% of the labour force, which, although not

fore, Saudi Arabia has been forced to diversify its wealth

a direct comparison, would appear noticeably smaller

and investments.

than in the UK, where two thirds of women between the age of 16 and 64 are employed.

One area of diversification has been the leisure industry. Earlier in 2020, for example, a group of inves-

The overall message is one of some progress but

tors, led by Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, rea-

with room for improvement, as reflected in the afore-

ched a £300 million deal to take over Newcastle United

mentioned survey of female empowerment by the World

Football Club from its owner, Mike Ashley. This deal would

Bank in 2020. The survey indicated that although Saudi

see Newcastle United as part of one of the world’s lar-

Arabia had over doubled its score (out of 100) from 31.8

gest sovereign wealth funds, with an estimated $300

in 2017 to 70.6 in 2020, this score flatters to deceive, with

billion of assets under management. However, there has

an overall position of 131st out of 190 nations. Still, it

been significant opposition to this takeover, as a result

could be argued that the World Bank is heavily influen-

of Saudi Arabia’s poor Human Rights record. A life-long

ced by Western values and is it realistic to expect gen-

Newcastle United supporter, has recognised the moral

der equality in Saudi Arabia to match that of Western

dilemma of the takeover: “I’m saying to you now, I’ll still

democracies? Perhaps not but this is unlikely to stem

go to matches and I have a masters in human rights.

the flow of criticism towards Saudi Arabia from many

I’m fully aware of Saudi Arabia’s record. I’m massively

nations and global institutions, as the following exam-

conflicted. I still love that football club. The reality is I am

ple would indicate.

going to engage in behaviour that’s hypocritical. There

In March 2019, a joint statement was read out at a

are no two ways about it.” While Saudi investors may

meeting of the UN’s Human Rights Council in Geneva,

enjoy some leeway from Newcastle United fans, given

which encouraged the Saudi Arabian authorities to

the importance of football on Tyneside, they are likely

tell the truth about the US-based journalist, Jamal

to face much tougher scrutiny in other areas in which

Khashoggi, a critic of the Saudi government, who was kil-

they may wish to invest.

led in a ‘rogue operation’ by a team of agents in Istanbul,

Or will they? It is interesting how in this case money

Turkey. On behalf of 12 western nations the statement

has done the talking and some people (perhaps many)

was read by the Australian ambassador to the UN, who

have been prepared to look the other way. Realpolitik

stated “we remain deeply concerned at the human rights

trumping the politics of values? There could be plenty of

situation in Saudi Arabia”. This is clear evidence of conti-

this type of politics going on as the world economy tries

nued pressure on Saudi Arabia to improve still further its

to recover from the Coronavirus and as we are forced

Human Rights record, including gender equality, and not

perhaps to be less choosy in our investments than before.

to rest on its laurels having made some progress to date.

No matter how unpalatable, continued and patient cri-

As the leading Islamic nation in the Gulf Region,

ticism of Saudi Arabia, in the hope of gradual progress,

Saudi Arabia could choose to ignore this criticism, much

would seem to be the right tactic for now. Anything more

of it from Western, Christian democracies, as perhaps

demanding, might have others jump ahead of us in the

it did for a number of decades. However, increasin-

queue of Saudi favourites. But there again, the oil crisis

gly it cannot afford to do so because, put simply, Saudi

that has accompanied the economic downturn caused

Arabia is running out of oil and, in decades to come, it

by COVID 19 has placed Saudi Arabia under severe econo-

will not be able to rely so heavily on wealth generated

mic pressure, so perhaps on both sides it is all to play for.

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T H E R U DE AW A K ENI N G T HE W O R L D NEEDED B Y

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“I can’t breathe.” Three words; repeated 15 times;

Health systems have been put under major strain

to deaf ears. These are the three words made famous

and at the time of writing, over 400,000 people have

by George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police

died worldwide, with over 7 million cases being reported.

officer on the 25th May, 2020. These are the three words

But, even with a disease that one would expect to affect

Floyd repeated 15 times whilst officer Dereck Chauvin

everyone equally, we have seen major racial disparity.

restrained Floyd by putting his knee on the back of his

In the UK, there have been just over 40,000 deaths.

neck. Horrifically, it isn’t the first time we have heard

19% of these deaths are made up of members of BAME

those three words during an arrest. In 2014, Eric Garner

(Black, Asian and minority ethnicities) groups . Whilst

pleaded for his life on the streets of New York. He, like

this doesn’t sound like a huge proportion of the popu-

Floyd, told the officers that he couldn’t breathe - this was

lation, one has to take into account that BAME groups

whilst they had him in a choke hold, as if it were a tele-

only make up 15% of the population. It, at the moment, is

vised wrestling match. Garner repeated those words 11

a worldwide trend that members of BAME groups have

times, to deaf ears, before he was wrongfully murdered.

a higher chance of dying from the virus than white peo-

At the time of writing this, there are racial protests

ple. And this is wrong. But why is this the case?

taking place not just across America, but across the

To answer this, one has to look at the socioecono-

world: from Los Angeles, to London, and Paris to Berlin.

mic backgrounds of different people. Members of BAME

It is the culmination of over 400 years of extreme racism

groups make up a large majority of people living under

and prejudice that plagues society. George Floyd’s mur-

the poverty line in the UK: 65% of Bangladeshis living in

der was the rude awakening that the world so despe-

the UK, live in poverty; 55% of Pakistanis living in the UK,

rately needed.

live in poverty; and 45% of Black Africans that live in the

Not only are we living through some of the most

UK, live in poverty. Quite frankly, this is shocking, espe-

important protests to ever happen, it is during a time of

cially since only 20% of White Brits living in the UK find

huge uncertainty, economically and socially, as a result of

themselves living below the poverty line. One’s living

the coronavirus. The World Health Organisation (WHO)

situation desperately influences their chances of con-

declared Covid-19 as a global pandemic on 11 March

tracting the virus, and thus later dying from it.

2020 and it has caused huge rifts in our global society:

Living in poverty equates to many luxuries being

markets tanked and the global economies have been

unavailable to you. Houses tend to be smaller, and over-

falling ever since - with the UK’s economy contracting

populated. Imagine being stuck in lockdown, for 13

(-20%) in April - three times larger than the contraction

weeks, with four young children running riot, in a small

seen during the Credit Crunch of 2008/09. Society has

council house - to say it would be hard would be a gross

also seen huge problems.

understatement.

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In developing countries, impoverished households

- a century where medical and technological gains have

tend to have a larger family for a number of reasons and

been made tenfold, yet socioeconomic problems con-

on the flip side, larger income households tend to have

tinue to divide society. So how do we close the divide?

fewer children. This is for a number of reasons: better

There is no binary answer or easy answer to this.

education, a stronger connection to the labour force

Racial divides are as prominent as ever, but are masked

and a preference to live in urban (more expensive) areas.

exceedingly well. Whilst blatant racism is highly taboo,

Education plays a crucial role in family planning: one’s

subconscious prejudice still surges through society. Over

perception of contraception could be greatly influen-

half of the FTSE100 companies have no minority ethnic

ced by their education - it also influences one’s choice

board members and (horrifyingly) there are more CEOs

to have fewer children: if they know that due to their

of FTSE100 companies called Steve (7) than there are black CEOs (1).

job they won’t be able to look after

Change needs to begin at the

more than, say, three children, then they are unlikely to have anymore than three children. Having lots of people in the household, especially in a small household, during this pandemic is not the ideal situation. It means that one is exposed to more people and, therefore, has a higher chance of being exposed to someone who has contracted the virus. To draw a comparison to a three person household (two adults

THERE IS ONE RACE, THE HUMAN RACE, AND THUS WE SHOULD ALL BE EQUAL

top. Whilst CEOs don’t necessarily need to be changed, there needs to be more BAME groups within the boards of companies. Whilst CEOs of the FTSE100 companies are predominantly white males (7% of CEOs called Steve) having board members from BAME groups would give BAME children someone in the business sector to look up to. In the UK, there are very few BAME members in high positions in business - making up

and one child), it is far more unlikely that someone in this household will contract the virus,

just 3% of the 1000 most powerful and prominent peo-

making it theoretically a safer household.

ple within the UK.

Looking at the (admittedly) limited factors to living

There is no legislative change which can stop these

situations, we can assume that there are more BAME

kinds of problems, however, a willing government could

households within the UK that are impoverished, with

make all the difference in helping the disadvantaged.

larger families - living in small houses. And we can the-

Covid-19 has highlighted the toxic societal behaviours of

refore see why it is BAME groups who have a greater risk

today, which realistically must be addressed. There is no

of contracting and dying from the virus.

logical reason for people of different races and religions

It is awful that one’s safety from a supposedly non-

to be disadvantaged in the workplace. In order for the

-discriminatory disease is determined by their socioeco-

younger generation to become more understanding and

nomic circumstance; it would have made sense back in

sympathetic, change must begin at the top. There is one

the early 15th Century, but not during the 21st Century

race, the human race, and thus we should all be equal.

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NEGATIVE TERRITORY

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OIL PR IC E H IT S N EGAT IV E T ER R IT OR Y F OR T H E F IR ST T IME If you had to pick one commodity that has influ-

off their hands, as they could not store it. The contract

enced global politics in the last 100 years more than any

that turned negative was for May delivery, but demand

other, crude oil would be the first choice of most people.

is not expected to rise soon, so we could be in a similar

It provides fuel for our cars, planes, and ships, it powers

situation at the expiry of June contracts. Whilst the oil

our industry and it heats our homes. It is the main rea-

price has always been quite volatile, the drop into neg-

son that the world is as globalised as it is, and it is the

ative territory, a few weeks ago, was unprecedented.

primary source of income for some of the most power-

The collapse of the oil price in early 2020, is due to

ful countries in the world. But recent turbulence in the

two main factors: an increase in supply, and a decrease

crude oil market saw prices fall into negative territory for

in demand.

the first time ever and prices have not rebounded in the

First, supply has increased dramatically. OPEC (the

way that some thought they would. So, what happened

Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

to oil? What does ‘negative territory’ actually mean?

and its allies, including Russia, held the first of a series

And what does this mean for the future of oil, and the

of readings back in March 2020, to discuss how to cut

global economy?

demand to cope with the growing Covid-19 outbreak,

First, to understand why the price of crude oil col-

which had already caused the price of oil to fall by 25%

lapsed, we need to understand what people mean when

in the first two months of 2020 alone. At the initial meet-

they say, ‘the price of oil.’ Oil is a commodity, meaning

ings, Saudi Arabia ordered Russia to cut production by

that its price depends on supply and demand. If the

500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to manage the global

demand for oil increases, its price will also increase, but,

supply of oil during the crisis. But Russia refused, and

if there is an oversupply of oil, its price will decrease. Oil

the talks ended with no new deal to restrain produc-

is traded in contracts called, ‘futures,’ which means that

tion. Instantly, oil prices plunged around 10% on the 6th

buyers buy contracts for barrels of oil and agree to take

March , but things were going to get worse. On the 9th

delivery on a certain date. Normally, traders will buy these

March, Saudi Arabia announced that it would slash its

contracts on the market, before selling them to other

oil prices, as it began a price war with Russia, as it tried

firms, who need the oil, in an effort to make a profit.

to threaten Russia to force it to negotiate with OPEC.

Whoever holds the contract on the expiry date, is due

Again, oil prices dropped by around 30%. The failure of

to take delivery of a physical barrel of oil. However, due

OPEC+ to come to an agreement over global production,

to factors such as a fall in demand, which I will discuss

meant that oil prices collapsed around the world, and

later, buyers were forced to store their oil, as demand for

had very significant implications for the global economy,

the commodity, from firms, had collapsed. As storage

as countries such as Nigeria, Algeria and Libya, who all

facilities across the US filled up, the price of a barrel of oil

need the price of oil to be around $100 per barrel to bal-

continued to drop. Eventually, storage facilities reached

ance their government’s spending.

their capacity, meaning that buyers had nowhere to store

However, it was not just the failure of OPEC+ to come

their oil, which they had purchased on the market. On

to an agreement over production that caused the price

the 20th of April, the price of West Texas Intermediate

of a barrel of oil to fall into negative territory for the first

(WTI), the benchmark for US oil, fell below $0, eventually

time since the Second World War. The world currently

settling at -$37.63/barrel. This means that buyers were

faces an unprecedented crisis with the outbreak of Covid-

paying other people, by renting tankers, to take the oil

19, and the best way that countries are trying to slow

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19

the spread of it is by imposing lockdowns. Whilst this

companies begin to sack workers, leaving them without

has been particularly important in reducing infection

an income. At the same time, the Federal government

rates of the coronavirus, it has been disastrous for the

receives less income, through taxation and stakes held

oil industry. In the 21st century, the world is more con-

in companies, and therefore has less money to help the

nected than ever before. On average, there are around

unemployed. If uncontrolled, this can lead to serious

2.6 billion car journeys, over 100,000 flights and many

anti-government sentiment, which can lead to social

more ships, buses, trucks being used for transport every

unrest and wider protests. Indeed, Venezuela has seen

day, across the world. Most of these vehicles require oil

a wave of anti-government protests, since the oil price

in some form. During the pandemic, air travel has col-

collapsed in 2014, which have crippled its economy fur-

lapsed, and the number of car journeys has dramati-

ther. The most recent collapse could prompt waves of

cally decreased. For example, in the UK, the number

unrest in other countries, as countries, such as Nigeria,

of car journeys being made per day has decreased by

which has just applied for more than $7 billion in emer-

73% and, in April, the number of passengers who trav-

gency funds from international lenders , struggle to sup-

elled by plane was 99% lower than in April last year. This

port their vast populations.

all has a profound impact on the oil industry as it has

In the UK, the economic impact is not as severe.

wiped out demand for oil. Experts predict that in 2020,

The fall in demand for oil will hit the oil and gas pro-

demand will fall by around 10 million bpd less than 2019. In comparison, in 2009, the peak of the Financial Crisis, demand only fell by 1.3 million bpd, when compared with 2008.

This time, the collapse in demand is much worse.

Ordinarily, a disagreement amongst OPEC+ members, or a fall in demand would cause the price of oil to drop by 10-50%. Over the past 75 years, drops of this scale have not been uncommon. After all, the oil

OIL TRADERS HAVE NEVER SEEN AN ‘INSANE’ MARKET LIKE THIS, FEAR MORE DECLINES TO NEGATIVE PRICES

ducing sector, which accounts for around 1.2% of total GDP, causing some negative impacts. However, a 2015 study by PWC , concluded that a, ‘significant fall in oil prices should increase UK economic activity.’ This is because other sectors, such as agriculture and the aviation industry, will benefit from the decrease in fuel prices. It also predicts that government tax revenues will rise, due to the increase in corporate and personal income taxes. This, they say, offsets the declining revenue from

market has never been a particularly stable market. The reason that this crash was so extreme

the oil and gas sector comfortably, contributing to the

was because of the combination of: the fall in demand,

growth in economic activity.

and the failure to control the supply. The fact that both

Over the past few years, oil markets have been put

these events happened at the same time has meant

under increasing amounts of stress. After the price col-

that the West Texas Intermediate plunged by more than

lapsed in 2014, experts were quick to predict that the

305% in a single day, and that the price of oil remains

price would rise again, back to ‘normal’ levels. However,

considerably lower than it was at the start of the year.

they were proved wrong, as prices settled at much

The crash has many implications. Firstly, in countries

lower levels than before. This has meant that experts

like: Iraq, where 99.8% of its exports are crude oil or its products, Venezuela (97.7%) and Azerbaijan (93%) , the drop in oil price will have a serious negative impact on the national economy. Since the 1st May, OPEC+ countries have agreed to cut production by 9.7 million bpd (equivalent to around 10% of the global supply) , but this may have been too late for some countries. In countries, such as Venezuela, with a heavy reliance on oil exports, a fall in the price of oil can cause social unrest.

This is because of the knock-on effect on the local economy, that the collapse in oil price has. As the price falls,

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are proceeding with caution this time, as they try and predict what the future looks like for the oil industry.

More and more countries are pledging to become carbon-neutral by 2050, meaning that, at some point, they are going to have to end their thirst for oil. As the oil industry tries to adapt to the 21st century, it is becoming increasingly clear that oil-producing nations, as well as organisations such as OPEC, will need to change, to adapt to changes in demand for oil, as parts of the world try and become carbon-neutral.

References: 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/25/scary-visceral-unprecedented-traders-describe-oils-wild-week-and-fall-to-negative-prices.html 2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51774622 3. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51796748 4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52485712 5. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/which-economies-are-most-reliant-on-oil/ 6. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-12/oil-price-war-ends-with-historic-opec-deal-to-cut-production 7. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/how-the-oil-price-capitulation-will-hit-nigeria-saudi-arabia-and-other-major-exporters.html 8. https://www.pwc.co.uk/assets/pdf/ukeo-oil-prices-march-2015.pdf

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BREXIT QUARANTINED

BY H ARRY M C P H A I L

PH OT O BY JANNES VAN DEN W O U W E R O N U N S PL AS H

One of the many consequences of the Coronavirus

using ‘WebEx’ which supposedly has ‘an enterprise-

pandemic has been its impact on day-to-day politics.

-grade videoconferencing suite produced by software

Jacob Rees Mogg’s, the Leader of the House of Commons,

company Cisco with more robust security than com-

attempt to resume MP voting illustrated the practical

mercial-grade apps like Zoom and Skype.’

challenges of law-making in the era of COVID-19. With

At this stage in negotiations David Frost is seeking

the usual crowded nature of Westminster voting cur-

a Canada-style agreement while the EU want a ‘softer’

rently prohibited due to social distancing regulations,

version of Brexit that would keep the UK closer to the

MPs were asked to stand in a queue only matched in

EU in many ways.

length by those in the School Dining Halls.

So, if that disagreement remains and no compro-

British politics in its very nature is based on tradition

mises are made the UK will leave on WTO terms (World

but has been forced in recent months to adapt and has

Trade Organisation – not to be confused with WHO, the

found new ways to still serve the country. Boris Johnson

World Health Organisation) on the 31st December 2020.

answering Select Committee questions via Zoom, ques-

As I write on the 12th June, Michael Gove has con-

tions from MPs across the nations being broadcast

firmed that the UK will not extend the implementa-

through TV screens in the House of Commons are a

tion period beyond the end of 2020. The Cabinet Office

couple of examples as to how our politics has changed.

Minister told his counterparts in Brussels that ‘the

In the last few months, the focus quite rightly for

moment for an extension has now passed.’ An article in

the Government has been on the Coronavirus pande-

the Financial Times portrayed the decision not to extend

mic and their plan to not only prevent losing lives but

as a clear message to businesses who now ‘know that

to unlock the country and return society to some sort

they must start to prepare for a drastically different tra-

of normality. The daily news conferences represent this

ding environment’ from 2021.

focus and the state of where the country sits.

The appetite for a deal is very much alive though

However, Brexit still lingers and while the context

within Downing Street. Matt Hancock, during a

is completely different, the negotiations remain immi-

Coronavirus News Conference, said that he ‘very much’

nent and require a degree of urgency.

hoped a no-deal Brexit would be avoided.

While it took a few weeks to work out, Brexit nego-

Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, indicated

tiations returned on the 11th May albeit without the usual

on the 11th June that he may be ready to have a degree of

face-to-face interaction and over a video conference.

compromise. The Frenchman apparently backed down

Around 200 people, according to the Independent, are

on his demand for the UK to continue to apply EU com-

a part of these live negotiations and each has a role to

petition law post-Brexit.

play around every detail of the agreements.

The decision to not extend the ‘transition period’

The Independent also reported that instead of Zoom,

will force Barnier to make compromises if he wishes

negotiators on both the EU and UK sides decided on

to have a deal with the UK but No.10 also knows that

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if no compromises are made a no-deal Brexit would not gather as much support as a deal, especially in Scotland and Wales. Indeed, Gove’s confirmation that there would be no extension came against the calls from both Scottish and Welsh First Ministers who claimed an extension was essential for economic stability.

In response, Gove tweeted that when the UK leaves on ‘1st January 2021, we will take back control and regain our political and economic independence.’ The Scottish opposition to the Government’s Brexit plans is to be expected as in the 2016 Referendum, Scotland voted 62% in favour of remain.

The BBC reports that Boris Johnson is expected to hold video talks with the EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen on Monday the 15th (apologies if this article seems outdated when it is released – Brexit is fast-moving) as talks intensify.

Brexit always felt like the biggest political story of this generation but the Coronavirus pandemic has brought not just political transformation but dramatic social and economic transformations also. It will bring changes to our lives in a way no one could have imagined and while Brexit will change our international relationships, the pandemic has pushed Brexit off the news and out of the public eye.

The UK, therefore, will look very different in 2021. We will be adapting to a new normal. A World post-Coronavirus, a UK post-Brexit.

Sources: The Independent, The Spectator, The Daily Telegraph, The BBC

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FU RLOU GH : FR I EN D OR F OE

BY DAV ID ADEYEMI -ABERE

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PHOTO BY JOHN CAMERON ON UNSPLASH

The word furlough comes from the Dutch word “ver-

economy. Moreover, the government will need to spend

lof” meaning “leave of absence”. The term has become

money on improving infrastructure in response to the

commonplace in the vocabularies of many Britons, due

pandemic. Whilst there are rough plans for gradually

to the coronavirus pandemic. But what is it, why is it

ending the scheme, the Chancellor’s recent extension

important and what will be its impacts?

does arouse public fears.

The furlough scheme was announced by Rishi

Although the furlough scheme is quite a simple

Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, on the 20th of

concept, its application is not so clear. Who gets fur-

March 2020. In essence, the government will pay 80% of

loughed? Do employers pay the remaining 20%? How

employees’ wages (capped at £2,500 per month). This

long will employees be on furlough? These are all ques-

keeps employees on payroll, instead of being laid off or

tions that will have various answers depending on the

made redundant.

sector and the employer and there is certainly potential

In crises, such as the current coronavirus pandemic,

for resentment between both parties. As a school com-

real national income decreases. This is because many

munity, we pride ourselves on looking after our mental

people are not able to go to work due to lockdown regu-

health. The mental impact of furlough could pose pro-

lations. Therefore, they cannot earn an income. Moreover,

blems, especially as social restrictions look to be here for

the money which people may have is saved rather than

the foreseeable future. It is important for employers to

spent, due to a lack of confidence in the economy. This

provide sufficient support to their furloughed employees,

means that less capital flows around the economy. The

in order to maintain agreeable relations.

furlough scheme intends to help people to continue to

In conclusion, the furlough scheme is a respectable

earn an income and maintain their job security. In fact,

one. It will help to limit the adverse economic effect of

the scheme is now paying the wages for over a quarter

the coronavirus, by securing jobs and maintaining the

of UK jobs. This will help reduce the inevitable damage

flow of capital throughout the economy, in both the

to the economy.

As well as mitigating the impact of current circumstances, the furlough scheme also looks to make the transition back to normality a smoother process. Furlough keeps staff on payroll, which enables companies to retain talent pools. This is preferable as companies do not have to spend money and resources (which are already limited) training new staff. Companies are also supported through furlough because of reduced labour costs. Since

short and long term. However, it is far from perfect. The scheme will leave the government with huge debts to pay and this responsibility will more than likely fall onto the shoulders of the youths of today. Furthermore, the scheme may mentally impact many employees, with multitudes of questions to answer regarding the different implementations of the scheme in various sectors.

How will the economy react to this bold governmental move? Only time will tell…

the government pays their furloughed employees, they can save money in this respect which helps them to continue running.

On the 12th of May 2020, Rishi Sunak announced that the furlough scheme would be extended to October.

Whilst there are clear positives to the scheme, there are also several negatives.

Sources: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52135342

Arguably, the most worrying thing about furlough is the sheer cost of the scheme. In light of the recent extension to October, furlough could cost up to £100 billion. How will the government pay this huge sum back? Suggestions have been made to gradually reduce the percentage of wages which the government pays, as more people return to work. In addition, the solution will likely involve raising taxes; but with an already damaged economy and society, this is not preferable. Perhaps the government might cut spending, but it is favourable to increase spending after a recession, to boost the

https://www.thebalancecareers.com/what-are-the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-furloughs-1918590 https://www.patriotsoftware.com/blog/payroll/implementing-furlough/ https://www.cipd.co.uk/knowledge/fundamentals/emp-law/employees/furlough https://hbr.org/2020/04/how-to-make-furloughs-more-humane https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8265949/What-futurefurlough-scheme.html https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-8293773/How-Britainpay-furlough-coronavirus-bill.html http://www.goodhr.co.uk/what-is-furlough-leave-the-pros-and-the-cons/ https://blog.careerminds.com/employee-furlough https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/12/ mervyn-king-calls-government-keep-furlough-open-ended/ https://www.forbes.com/consent/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/2009/04/08/ furloughs-layoffs-cuts-leadership-managing-policy.html https://www.thebalancecareers.com/what-are-the-advantages-and-disadvantages-of-furloughs-1918590

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TA X AVOI D A NC E ↗

WOR D S BY

O S C AR CALVERT Since the dawn of society, the wealthy and power-

havens and modern corporate tax havens. Traditional

ful have been finding ways to avoid paying their share

havens (e.g. Bermuda and the Cayman Islands) are

of tax. Its appearance in the 21st century is now wides-

famous for having zero corporate or personal tax and

pread in business and financial circles. After the leak of

no requirement for a local presence. This means they

the ‘Panama Papers’ in 2016, it has become a divisive

are highly attractive to corporations however can find

issue leading many to question the ethics of these cor-

themselves blacklisted by the OECD (Organisation for

porations in accordance with modern law.

Economic Co-operation and Development), meaning

In Ancient Greece, isolated Greek Islands were used

it is hard for businesses to move money and assets into

as depositories by sea traders to store their foreign goods

them. Modern corporate tax havens get around these

to avoid the 2% tax imposed by Athens on imported

obstacles by using base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS)

goods. Now, corporations use similar techniques to avoid

techniques which are allowed by loopholes in the law.

taxes: utilising tax havens. According to Dr James Hines

Often in these locations the ‘headline’ tax rates are above

Jr (the foremost author in tax haven research), tax havens

0 (Ireland at 12.5% and the Netherlands at 25%), however,

are ‘typically small, well-governed states that impose

due to BEPS tools, the tax rate is effectively 0.

low or zero tax rates on foreign investors’, however Hines

So how does a corporation manage to pay so little

notes that there are too many variations between diffe-

tax? There are 3 main techniques used: IP (intellectual

rent havens for a detailed definition. Corporations choose

property) based tools, debt based tools and transfer

to establish subsidiaries or incorporate in these loca-

price based tools. Intellectual property has become the

tions due to their tax policy (and financial secrecy laws:

leading method of tax avoidance and has been used

part of the 1998 OECD criteria for a tax haven). There are

by several big tech corporations (such as Apple, Google

two types of corporate havens: traditional corporate tax

and Facebook). This is due to a few different factors: it is

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incredibly easy to move around the world (as it is intan-

and a zero corporate tax rate (for example Malta or the

gible); it is constantly being renewed (due to product

UAE). Current alleged users of this include Microsoft (via

cycles in large tech companies); and many countries

Linkedin) and the medical device manufacturer Teleflex.

accept it as being deductible against tax.

If you have any doubt on the risky economic effects

IP tax avoidance has been traditionally achieved

of mass corporate tax avoidance, you only need to look

with a tool called the ‘double irish’. Say a US company

as far as the Leprechaun Economics affair of 2016. In the

sells a piece of software for $110 in Germany, the $100

first quarter of 2015, before the conclusion of the afore-

profit would have been made in Germany and subject

mentioned EU investigation that Apple’s variation on the

to German taxes. However, if the company charges its

Double Irish (which used an Irish Revenue Commission

German subsidiary $100 in intellectual property royalty

ruling to set up a single Irish based company, instead

payments for each copy of the software sold, its German

of the usual two) constituted illegal state aid, Apple res-

profit is zero (so it does not need to pay German taxes).

tructured their previous BEPS tool into the ‘Green Jersey’

The $100 is paid to where the patent of the IP is legally

CAIA (capital allowances for intangible assets) tool. Part

housed and is taxed there, unfortunately for the com-

of this tactic involved Apple Ireland buying $300 billion

pany, this cannot be a traditional tax haven as most coun-

in IP assets from Apple Jersey (a traditional tax haven)

tries refuse to sign tax treaties with them, so the royalty

and writing it off against 10 years of Irish corporation

charge would not count as a deductible. The double irish

tax. As they were onshoring the IP, the $40 billion in

requires the IP to be housed in Ireland and the charge

profit shifted appeared on Irish accounts and GDP, this

to be sent onto a traditional tax haven (i.e. in Bermuda),

meant that in July 2016, the Irish Central Statistics Office

whilst not being taxed in Ireland. There is an issue: under

announced 2015 Irish economic growth rates of 26.3%

the US tax code, the Bermudian subsidiary will be con-

(GDP). The Irish government was mocked for this statis-

sidered a controlled foreign corporation (cfc) as it stores

tic as it was seen to not reflect Ireland’s actual growth.

the income from a related party transaction (between

This meant that Ireland’s fiscal policy decisions could

the english and irish subsidiaries), this means it is sub-

not be based on the GDP and other indicators such as

ject to US taxes. To get around this, the company exploits

potential growth rate and output gap were misleading to

the fact that Ireland considers residency if a company

foreign investors, discouraging investment. Additionally,

is controlled and managed in Ireland whereas the US

Ireland incurred a €380 million per annum EU GDP levy,

considers where it is registered instead. The corporation

creating difficulties for state spending. In February 2017,

can simply move royalty from their Irish subsidiary into

the Central Bank of Ireland introduced Modified Gross

another Irish-registered company (through a complex

National Income (GNI*). This is meant to lessen the effects

tool called the dutch sandwich) that is controlled from

that foreign controlled companies have on the traditional

Bermuda. Ireland considers the company to be tax-re-

GDP. In July 2017, the CSO estimated that 2016 Irish GNI*

sident in Bermuda, while the US considers it to be tax-

(€190bn) was 30% below Irish GDP (€275bn), demons-

-resident in Ireland, meaning that it ignores the related

trating the massive effect that tax avoiding firms have

transaction and the Bermudian subsidiary goes untaxed.

on the countries they inhabit - a 2018 IMF report states

The double irish originated from Apple in the late

that all leading tax havens have artificially inflated GDPs.

1980s and since then has been calculated to have taken

The world of tax avoidance is ever changing and

$100 billion from the US tax base annually, enabling U.S.

adapting to new regulations. The use of the CAIA tool is

multinationals to accumulate over $1 trillion in untaxed

widely regarded to overtake the Single Malt and other

offshore profits. A 2014 EU investigation into Apple’s tax

debt based BEPS tools. In 2018, Microsoft decided to exe-

practices revealed the scale of the deceit and, in October

cute their CAIA transaction, moving $52 billion in IP to

2014, the EU forced Ireland to close it to new schemes,

Ireland by 2019. This is speculated to start a trend among

giving existing users until January 2020 to restructure.

US multinationals, the chair of the Irish Fiscal Advisory

This was not the end however: a November 2017 article

Council, Seamus Coffey, expecting to see a boom in 2020.

exposed a new technique was being used already, this

On the other side of the coin, the COVID-19 pandemic

was coined the ‘single malt’. The single malt works in

has caused several countries to clamp down on corpo-

an almost identical way to the double irish, except that

rate tax dodgers. To date, France, Scotland, Denmark,

the Bermuda–controlled Irish company is relocated to a

Belgium and Poland have refused bailouts for tax haven

country with "management and control" tax residency

linked corporations, a move approved by the EU.

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LOCKDOWN LIFE P H O T O B Y A L E C FAVA L E O N U N S P L A S H

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T H OU GH T S F ROM REDB U R N

BY M R M ARRIOT T

“What’s it like being in the boarding house? It must be great - all that space and no boys to look after and worry about.”

This is how many of my conversations have started when I’ve seen a friend, parent from my daughters’ school or neighbour during one of my walks down by the river or whilst gardening. The simple answer is it is not so great! A boarding house without boys is a very hollow and soulless place and I am sure I speak for all Housemasters when I say that I cannot wait for the day when we re-open our doors and terrible chat, dubious fashion sense and questionable taste in music fills the corridors once more.

Remote teaching and learning has been a major change for all of us and whilst it has presented challenges to overcome, the upskilling and opportunities to improve our technical skills, developing further our resilience and becoming (more) independent learners are positives that we will benefit from far into the future. Take Microsoft Teams for example, it has been 89 days since I sat in B6 with some colleagues and Dr Wallace; he talked us through how we could use it to teach lessons without any boys in the room with us. For four weeks of these 89 days it has been the Easter and half-term holidays, so in 61(ish) days, we have gone from having a relatively unknown programme pop-up on our screen when we log-in to the computer, to very successfully teaching a (nearly) full timetable to boys all over the World. It does not stop at Microsoft Teams – Loom, FlipGrid, OneNote and old favourites like Kahoot to name but a few have given us a glimpse of how teaching and learning might change in the future.

With a 4-year-old, an 18-month-old and a highly energetic cocker spaniel for company, Mrs Marriott and I have had to find ways to keep everyone happy, occupied and healthy alongside staying on top of the excellent remote learning provision that Pilgrims has made for their pupils. We are now experts at turning recycling into art, the phonetic alphabet and know the actions and words to ‘Wind the bobbin up’ off by heart. One of the things we have really enjoyed is contributing to the ‘Window Wonderland’ that has been happening around the Castle Road area. The initiative was started back in March following rainbows appearing in windows all over the country. Ten weeks later and our front windows and fence are decorated with aliens, crabs, tigers and rockets to name a few and we hope these have made people smile as they have taken their daily exercise. One of the more difficult challenges we have faced as parents is helping

our eldest daughter understand enough about Covid-19 so that she can be safe, but not too much that she becomes scared or worried. As she understands it (I hope) we are on a mission to beat the bug. To beat the bug, we must keep our hands clean, be careful when we go out and not see our family and friends.

The latter has been the hardest part for the girls to understand and for us to explain. After some initial difficulties with technology - my Dad thought we were having a Zumba party when we had our first family call through Zoom – the girls are happily chatting to family and friends online. The recent relaxing of some social distances rules have been a huge boost for all and we are looking forward to a BBQ with grandparents this weekend – but as we should have probably expected, the British weather might have other ideas.

There has rightly been increased focus on mental and physical well-being, kindness to others and especially being kind to ourselves. As a School, I think we do these things very well and I am sure that we will do them even better because of the last few months. Like me, you may have had good days and not so good days during lockdown – times when you’ve reacted poorly and been grumpy, but you can’t really say why.

There is no single solution that will work for everyone, but I have found that doing anything different from the day before can often snap me out of a grouchy moment. Those of you who have seen my efforts on Strava (there aren’t many) will know that running has been less successful, but I have found making bread and DIY projects work for me. Boxsets have been a welcome distraction too and I’m going to sneak a request in here.

Mrs Marriott and I are coming to the end of our third boxset, Killing Eve. We have watched Line of Duty and Luther and we would welcome any recommendations on what to watch next.

Trying something new ties in nicely with one of the questions I have continually asked the Redburn boys to consider – ‘What have you done in lockdown?’ You have probably found yourself with more time on your hands than normal and even for the most avid FIFA enthusiasts, there is a limit to how many hours you can clock-up in career mode. Boys in Redburn are learning new instruments (Mr Nicholl is teaching himself to play the piano as I write this), teaching themselves to sew, delivering society talks, creating school magazines and have even built a book exchange in a village phone box. I hope this might encourage you to try something new.

I hope you have enjoyed reading this; I have thoroughly enjoyed writing it and reflecting on lockdown life, even though I should probably be marking end of year assessments instead – sorry, Mr Rees. I hope you and your loved ones are safe and well and that you enjoy the summer holiday ahead. I look forward to seeing you in person in the not too distant future and finding out about your experiences during lockdown. Take care.

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P H O T O B Y M I T YA I VA N O V O N U N S P L A S H

THE E FFE C T OF C OV ID-19 ON RU SSIA

BY N I K O L AI S O R O K I N

THE PANDEMIC has already influenced all areas of Russia, including its economy, businesses, psychological wellbeing of the citizens, and it’s greatly negative impact will be tormenting the country for many years to come. Fortunately, the quick mobilisation of the government at the start of the outbreak allowed Russian Federation to withstand becoming a hotspot of COVID-19, despite its immense proximity to China.

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Within 24 hours the Russian ministers were able to stop all train communication, apart from one: Moscow - Beijing destination. All incoming flights were ordered to be checked with the temperature of every passenger being taken, in order to prevent the spread of the virus. However, as we now know, coronavirus can be spread by someone with mild to no symptoms with an incubation period up to 14 days, rendering the tests relatively inefficient in combating the spread.

When looking at the impact of the infection on the Russian economy, the problems with the falling GDP began back in February. In the consumer sector, the numbers were already falling by the 7th February, making it one of the first areas to really experience the impact of the virus.

Oil prices were another major issue and played a part in the falling GDP. As China entered lockdown, it stopped purchasing oil due to a major lack of demand, flights being grounded and cars not being on the roads.

China is a major buyer of Russian oil and as the price of oil per barrel began to decrease, the Russian currency the ruble - weakened with it against the dollar; with the price of the American currency rising up from ~64â‚˝ to ~76â‚˝ respectively.

However, the sector which experienced the greatest decrease was tourism. Chinese people make up an incredible proportion of Russian tourism, due to efficient travel routes and the relative cheapness of the country (over 1 million Chinese citizens come to Russia every year). As all of the travel between China and Russia was cancelled, apart from those being repatriated, the tourism sector suffered incredibly. This then stretched to museums and famous sites to cafes and restaurants, which have just started to reopen recently.

The psychological wellbeing of the Russian citizens is another major topic of discussion in the country at the moment, as a rapid change of the social environment will have a severe impact on people. Strict rules on isolation and quarantine meant that millions of people completely lost access to outdoor sports. This quarantine has had a negative effect overall, greatly increasing the unemployment percentage. In the worst case scenario, by the end of the pandemic, over 7% of Russian people will be unemployed, however recent predictions infer a bounce back to the norm by the end of 2022.

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MID-YE AR MARKET RECAP

BY OLIVER BU R R ID G E-D E A N

You don’t have to follow the markets, to be aware

companies had not yet been affected by the virus lock-

of the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on stock pri-

down measures, the fear of an outbreak in either of these

ces. Ever since the 31st of December, when China first

countries had been factored into the markets as a result

reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan,

of the current situation in other countries such as Italy –

which were eventually diagnosed as cases of coronavi-

the first European country to be affected. However, there

rus. The markets have experienced huge falls and rises

were also concerns over the breakdown of supply-chains

similar in scale to that of ‘Black Monday’ in 1987, when

from China and the impact of this on US and UK com-

the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell (-22.6%) in

panies. As a result, investors fled to government debt,

a single day. The Dow and the FTSE-100 saw their big-

usually a safe-haven asset, which heightened bond pri-

gest quarterly drops in the first three months of the year

ces and diminished yields.

since 1987, making this period one of the most poignant in market history.

In response, on the 3rd of March, we saw the first measure taken by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate

On the 28th of February, US markets suffered their

the economy and combat the economic impact of the

worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500,

coronavirus. Interest rates were cut by 0.5 percentage

Nasdaq and DJIA had all fallen (-10%) or more, and the

points, which aimed to encourage spending and dis-

UK was not left unscathed, with the FTSE-100 down

courage saving. Markets rallied, including the FTSE-100,

more than (-10%) as well. But why? Neither the US or

highlighting the interdependence between national eco-

UK had any cases of coronavirus at this point in time,

nomies which has been brought about by globalisation.

yet both markets had already been affected. Investors

However, this was not the beginning of a smooth sailing

react to uncertainty, and even though many US and UK

recovery, but actually quite the opposite.

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F I G U R E 1 : T H E I M P A C T O F C O R O N AV I R U S O N S T O C K M A R K E T S S I N C E T H E S TA R T O F T H E O U T B R E A K

On the 9th of March, the price of oil crashed. To put

come. Despite a slight recovery, based upon White House

it simply, it was caused by tensions between Russia and

promises to protect the US economy, the 12th of March

Saudi Arabia. This, coupled with ongoing coronavirus

proved to be even worse than the 9th, with US and UK

fears, shocked markets worldwide. The FTSE-100 fell (-8%),

markets suffering their worst day since 1987 – both falling

making it the 4th biggest drop in the index’s history and

almost (-10%). French and German markets fell further

wiping £125 billion off the market value of the leading UK

(-12%). This was in light of the Fed’s $1.5 trillion stimu-

firms – a standout being BP which fell (-20%). US markets

lus package and the European Central Bank’s (ECB)

fell approximately (-7%) and trading was paused for the

attempts to ease financial strains, which both had an

first time by automatic ‘circuit breakers’ – introduced

opposite effect on markets as they confirmed to inves-

after the ‘Black Monday’ crash of October 1987 with the

tors that the economic impact of the coronavirus would

intention of pausing markets for 15 minutes to prevent

likely be severe.

a sudden sell-off. However, markets reopened and continued to fall. The Energy (-37%) and Financials

Moreover, Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, when

(-24%)

asked about attitudes towards sovereign debt annou-

sectors were some of the hardest hit. The main European

nced, “We are not here to close the spreads.” In other

markets also fell approximately (-7%), making these the

words, Italy would not receive any additional support.

biggest stock market falls since the 2008 financial crash.

Within minutes, markets reacted, and Lagarde back-

On the upside, gold, well-known for being a safe-haven

tracked, promising flexibility in preventing the collapse

asset, hit a 7-year high of $1,700 per ounce.

of the euro area – essentially helping Italy. Market vola-

What seemed to be one of the worst days in stock

tility meant that for the second time this month, auto-

market history, was only a taster of what was still to

matic ‘circuit breakers’ would be implemented. A further

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FIGURE 2: RETURNS BY SECTOR BASED ON THE MSCI WORLD SECTOR INDICES BETWEEN 19 FEBRUARY AND 30 APRIL 2020.

measure was taken by the US that day, when it restric-

expectations, low confidence and herd behaviour, and

ted all travel from Europe – owner of British Airways, IAG,

it reinforced the fact that markets are often not accu-

fell (-15%) in response. By this point in time, US markets

rate representations of the real economy.

had fallen (-20%) since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, however, markets had still not reached the bottom.

On Tuesday 17th March, also St Patrick’s Day, we saw the worst day in the entirety of the COVID-19 crisis. For

The following day, markets elsewhere felt the reper-

the third time this month, automatic ‘circuit breakers’

cussions of the previous trading day and Japan’s Nikkei

were activated as US stocks suffered their worst day

was down (-10%). However, Wall Street rallied as Trump

since 1987 – DJIA (-12.9%). European and Asian markets

declared the virus a national emergency, but this was

were also down. This was a reaction to a culmination of

merely a ‘dead cat bounce’ – when share prices benefit

events, some of which occurred over the weekend. Firstly,

from a brief recovery in the midst of a plunge. At this

President Trump indicated the likelihood of a recession,

point, a recession was looking very likely. In the UK, the

which weighed on investor sentiment. The Fed, on the

FCA prohibited the short-selling of some Italian and

15th March, cut interest rates to almost 0% and imple-

Spanish firms in an attempt to preserve their market

mented a $700 billion stimulus programme. Essentially,

value and the wider economies. It is worth noting that at

central banks were trying to calm markets, but it was

this point in time neither the UK or US had put in place

having a completely opposite effect. Moreover, Trump

lockdown measures, yet markets had already largely

announced that he was considering sending cheques

factored in the potential economic impact of the virus.

to Americans as part of a $1 trillion stimulus package,

This was a combination of concerns over future profit

and the Fed said it would purchase up to $1 trillion in

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short-term corporate debt – a facility last implemen-

and company debt across the eurozone.

ted in 2008.

By market close on 24th March, the DJIA had jum-

In response, US shares rebounded (+6%). In the

ped (+11.4%) – its biggest daily gain since 1933. The S&P

UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak promised £330 billion in

500 and FTSE-100 were also up (+9%) – their best days

loans to businesses, and French President, Emmanuel

since 2008. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings rose (+42%)

Macron, guaranteed £300 billion in loans, the previous

and American Airlines (+36%) as Trump said he wanted

day. However, investors feared that central banks and

to ease measures by Easter – slightly ambitious! But

governments had used all the measures they can, and

this was no ‘dead cat bounce,’ stocks were higher for a

it still wasn’t going to be enough. At the same time, it

second day running as Trump and the Senate agreed a

was becoming clear which sectors would be hit worst:

$1.8 trillion relief package, which would cover bills, unem-

travel, leisure and hospitality – labour intensive ones. For

ployment assistance and emergency loans for small

instance, JD (-17.83%), Carnival (-17.25%), Taylor Wimpey

firms. Boeing was a standout performer up (+23%). US

(-15.18%) and Meggit (-13.73%). Meanwhile, the Wall Street

share index’s achieved their best three day gains since

‘fear gauge’ topped 2008 levels and the Chicago Board

the Great Depression, bolstered by the $5 trillion ple-

Options Exchange’s VIX, a measure of stock market vola-

dge from the G20 forum, and markets began to look

tility, also surpassed 2008 levels surging 43%.

on the up!

Over this period markets have fallen significantly

Since March 23rd, markets have been recovering,

with the S&P 500 losing a third of its value, but it is thou-

especially in the US. The S&P 500 has now turned positive,

ght that the 23rd March was the bottom of this drama-

completely recovering its coronavirus losses, yet Britain

tic decline. A few more stimulus measures were put

and Europe have recovered much less. But why? COVID-

in place including: the Fed created swap lines to help

19 is still very much prevalent in these countries and

supply central banks in nine countries with dollars and

their economies have been significantly damaged. Well,

the ECB launched a €750 billion plan to buy government

what this crisis has highlighted, is the lack of correlation

FIGURE 2: RETURNS BY SECTOR BASED ON THE MSCI WORLD SECTOR INDICES BETWEEN 19 FEBRUARY AND 30 APRIL 2020.

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between the real economy and markets. Investors make

global economy, with the only country to sustain posi-

decisions based on speculation and markets had facto-

tive growth being China.

red in what they thought would be the overall impact of

The future of the markets is very much dependent

the virus long before anything was set in stone. The fact

on whether we see a second-wave of infections and the

many believed share prices had hit the bottom, combi-

development of treatments, and/or a vaccine. Investors

ned with other forms of investment looking increasin-

will be taking a bet on which outcome they see most

gly unattractive such as government bonds heading

likely, as well as what they think the ‘new normal,’ or even

towards negative yields, meant investors fled back to

90% economy, will look like. But many will see opportu-

equity. Technology stocks have performed extremely

nity, and those with Warren Buffet’s philosophy will have

well, especially the FAANG stocks – Facebook, Amazon,

seen no better time to invest, as Buffet puts it, investors

Apple, Netflix and Alphabet – and Zoom (+131.1%).

should be “greedy when others are fearful.”

In the US, markets have recovered much more than UK and European markets due to the pre-existing market conditions, such as concerns over Brexit, certain sectors e.g. car making, banking and energy, as well as concerns over the euro. This, coupled with the fact that the

Sources:

Fed has acted more dramatically than any other central

h tt p s : //co ro n av i r u s a n d t h e e co n o my.co m /q u e s t i o n /

bank purchasing high-yield ‘junk’ bonds, has resulted in a strong performing US stock market.

Whether this recovery will be sustained is hard to tell.

As companies release information about their profitabi-

what-explains-stock-market-reactions-pandemic https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data h t t p s : // w w w. e c o n o m i s t . c o m / l e a d e r s / 2 0 2 0 / 0 5 / 0 7/

lity, the true extent of the fundamental economic impact

the-market-v-the-real-economy

of the virus will become clear. The IMF (International

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-co-

Monetary Fund) already predicts a (-3%) shrink in the

ronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system

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PHOTO BY MARKUS SPISKE ON UNSPL ASH

BY J AC K O’DON OV AN Neoliberalism has been the cornerstone of western political thought for the last 40 years and the most overarchingly dominant and influential ideology since the paradigm shift away from post-war keynesian economics. Although in 2020, Neoliberalism is beginning to falter, it has survived decades almost unharmed. Parties of all political persuasion have bought into the ideology to exist as a part of the established neoliberal political elite. Blair’s New Labour is a case in point. In the late 1990s, politics became hegemonic and Neoliberalism became the preferred system for those who wanted to get into power. The 2008 financial crisis tested neoliberalism to its core, and although it shook belief and faith in the capitalist system itself and raised serious doubts about neoliberalism, neoliberal ideas became even more prolific in its aftermath. As a result, austerity became increasingly more influential as a political and economic project, which demonstrated how the 2008 crisis failed to displace neoliberalism’s core principles.

But somehow, between 2008 and today, Neoliberalism has begun to crumble for a number of reasons.

Some claim that Neoliberalism was doomed to fail from its conception, due to the laudation of trickle-down economics, mass immigration and a lack of accountability of corporate actions. Neoliberalism has also been criticised for its lack of growth in comparison to the post-war era and the vast inequality which has defined the period. In Piketty’s ‘Capital in the Twenty First Century’ he asserts that capitalism naturally favours inequality, and perhaps for some his analysis alone proves that the neoliberal project was always doomed to fail.

The widespread support for populism has uprooted the power of the so-called elite and turned neoliberalism on its head. In America, Trump and Bernie vie to be the ‘people’s champion’, while in the UK Michael Gove claimed that “Britain has had enough of experts”.

Populist narratives have attacked Neoliberal ideas of free movement of people and globalisation. Classic examples include the vote to leave the European Union and the success of Marine Le Pen and her National Front party in 2017. Both were cri-de-coeur of working class resentment of the elite and all they represent. The major shortcoming of neoliberalism, inequality, caused the creation of populism. Populism is a direct reaction against the neoliberal world; Wendy Brown’s ‘In the Ruins of Neoliberalism’ says that while central proponents of

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PHOTO BY M. B. M. ON UNSPLASH

“ THE NINE MOST TERRIFYING WORDS IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ARE: I’M FROM THE GOVERNMENT, AND I’M HERE TO HELP"

said “the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help”, he encapsulated the American sentiment to authority, which is now more important than ever. Small government is not built to fight a pandemic and resistance to government authority has proved that Neoliberal societies have been able to fight the pandemic in ways other

neoliberalism themselves didn’t aim for our political and

countries have been. They don’t have enough money or human resources in the public service, while places like

economic present, their ideas and reforms were the “fer-

South Korea are able to flatten their curve due to their

tilizer” to nurture it. Thatcher’s infamous line ‘there’s no

efficient public services and willingness of the popula-

such thing as society’ sums this up.

tion to sacrifice their liberties. Public opinion is already

The climate crisis has also threatened the position of

starting to shift away from the ‘free market’ mentality,

neoliberalism. Neoliberalism is seen by many as an obs-

due to run-down healthcare and other public services.

truction to collective public response. Many Neoliberals

Covid-19 has also upset the Neoliberal globalised eco-

would advocate an individualised response, using reusa-

nomy, which relies on just-in-time inventory for hyper-

ble pens and reusing carrier bags, however the climate

-efficient production. The disruption of global supply

crisis requires a far more interventionist approach than

chains will unravel an already damaged neoliberal eco-

Neoliberals are comfortable with. Corporate companies

nomic system. This will most likely be seen in the dimi-

are responsible for 71% of carbon emissions and the lack

nution of the US global power and the growth of chi-

of a tangible response by the neoliberal elite has crea-

nese power. Neoliberalism in one form or another could

ted divisions between the people and government most

become the bogeyman of the upcoming recession and

evident in the School Strike for Climate or Fridays for the

inevitably populism will fill its place, bringing with it nati-

Future, where millions demonstrated their lack of faith

vism, protectionism and isolationism. This will drama-

in the actions undertaken by governments across the

tically alter the power balance of international politics

world. The climate justice movement is blocking pipe-

and political thought. The pandemic has also blown out

lines and forcing the divestment of trillions of dollars

of the water the traditional parameters of mainstream

across the world. Off the back of the movement, political parties seem ready to defy neoliberal dogma in an attempt to stand against the climate crisis.

If we are witnessing the death of Neoliberalism, the coronavirus pandemic is both the death knell and the final nail in its coffin. The long term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will be far greater than we think; it could be the dawn of a new world order. When Regan

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political and economic thought, with ideas like universal basic income, government housing for the homeless and state surveillance becoming more prominent within society.

References: https://jacobinmag.com/2020/03/coronavirus-health-care-neoliberalism/ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/true-north/2017/jul/17/ neoliberalism-has-conned-us-into-fighting-climate-change-as-individuals https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/09/in-the-ruins-of-neoliberalism-wendy-brown https://www.ppesydney.net/coronavirus-crisis-and-the-end-of-neoliberalism/ Thomas Piketty ‘Capital in the Twenty First Century’ Wendy Brown in ‘In the Ruins of Neoliberalism’

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P H OT O BY SI M ON M A O N UN S P L ASH

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JAPAN AND COVID-19

BY YOJI NISHINA

A S TAT E O F E M E R GEN C Y On April 7, the Japanese government announced ‘a state of emergency’ after reaching almost 400 confir-

open while many citizens frowned upon those busi-

med cases in a day. This announcement has been decla-

ness owners and their patrons and, without hesitation,

red only four times in the Japanese history since 1941,

expressed their anger on SNS(Social Networking Service).

hence this event gave us a sense of danger.

The decision also allowed some citizens to go out of

However, there was a major issue with this announ-

their home for unnecessary reasons. In fact, the head of

cement. In contrast to many other countries which brou-

the Tokyo High Public Prosecutor’s Office, who has been

ght themselves to a complete shutdown with stringent

the focus of intense scrutiny over his close relationship

measures, the Japanese government chose to declare

with the administration of Abe, submitted his resigna-

‘a state of emergency’, which does not have any man-

tion on May 21 following a report that he had participa-

datory power over the people’s behaviours.

ted in a game of mahjong (a tile-based game that was

This means that the government can only request the people to stay home as much as possible and sug-

developed in China) while gambling with newspaper employees in his house.

gest they should follow social distancing rules wherever

As much as this episode may sound frustrating or

they can. As a result, some entertainment facilities such

absurd, the people’s freedom and human rights are

as game centres and night clubs kept their businesses

enshrined by the Japanese Constitution.

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The graph on the right illustrates the trend of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan. As it suggests, we are finally starting to see a ray of light in the great darkness we had for over two months. 7 weeks after ‘a state of emergency’ was declared by Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, the restrictions were eased in most of the regions in Japan allowing the people to resume their ‘normal life’.

However, the impact which this virus has caused to the country is huge despite the fact that, in Tokyo, the number of confirmed cases has been less than 30 for the past 10 days and the total deaths as of May 23 is 280, which is significantly lower than predicted. Millions of people are affected mentally, physically, and/or financially, just like anywhere else COVID-19 has spread. The outcomes of this virus are far more severe than it may seem on the surface. The following article depicts the impact the new coronavirus has on Japanese economy and daily lives of Japanese people. The government’s reaction to this pandemic has not met the public’s expectations.

In fact, Abe’s popularity rating has gone down by almost 10% within a month since the beginning of April.

This huge downfall is attributed to his vague, blunt, and slow decision makings that do not address the issues.

'ABENOMASK' Now, let me introduce a shameful episode unique to Japan. Through the coronavirus panic, the word ‘Abenomask’ was coined - It is a pun of a word ‘Abenomics’, which was also a pun of ‘economics’ and conceived after the current prime minister took office.

The word ‘Abenomask’ started appearing quite commonly on the headlines of news and soon after Abe set out a new rather peculiar strategy against the pandemic, which was to provide two washable face masks per household. Initially, this did not sound like a bad idea, given that the country was in a great shortage of face masks. However, it did not take very long before the public could see faults of this decision. The people were furious for a few reasons. At first, they discovered that the cost for supplying ‘Abenomask’ was exorbitant 466 billion yen (4 billion pounds), and the masks reached only a limited number of people. Furthermore, many of those who received ‘Abenomask’ reported on SNS that the masks did not look brand new. In fact, some found human hair on the surface and others even spotted moulds. What’s mindboggling is that many people still have not received ‘Abenomask’ in mail although the worst of the pandemic seems long over. Many people in Japan

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are complaining that it is not only a complete white elephant but also a complete waste of tax payers’ money. It would have been much more beneficial, efficient, and appreciated if surgical masks could have been sent to hospitals in a timely manner.

IMPACT ON JAPANESE ECONOMY Let me move on to economic impacts. Some economists estimate that without any effective economic policies in place, 600,000 companies in Japan may go bankrupt within the next 12 months. This estimation is convincing. Hundreds of small restaurants and bars are already out of business, and recently, Renown, a long-established renowned apparel company, bankrupted. Japan, like many other countries, relies heavily on China in terms of sourcing materials and manufacturing. However, the new coronavirus had a huge impact on the supply chain. It also changes consumer shopping behaviours and that, in turn, significantly impacted many business’ cash flow. It is understandable that even a long-established company like Renown has suffered to see its final days. New policies imposed by the Abe regime only made it worse; Abe announced that the government would issue ‘Employment Adjustment Subsidy’ for those firms that meet the government’s requirements. One of the requirements demands respective company owners to have an in-person meeting with a government’s official to discuss the company’s current financial situation and forecast. Thousands are still on a waiting list and meanwhile they are losing more and more money. As of May 16, only 60 out of 110,000 firms which had applied for the subsidy managed to receive it.

Even though the first wave of COVID-19 is easing off in Japan, it seems that the impact is there to stay for a long time to come. A roadmap to recovery, which will shape economies, is yet to be established.

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ILLUSTRATIONS BY BENEDICT SIOW