Bees for Development Journal 128 September 2018
The beekeeping sector needs realistic data Janet Lowore and Nicola Bradbear 3. Method and assumptions for the prediction not known
At Bees for Development we have long been aware of one honey production statistic that keeps appearing in reports and articles, and yet generates considerable disquiet in our office. It is this: Uganda is repeatedly stated to have an ‘estimated production potential of 500,000 tonnes of honey per year(1). We are extremely uncomfortable with this statistic for the following reasons: 1. It is clearly incorrect 2. What does production potential mean? 3. The method and assumptions for the estimate are unknown 4. The Ugandan honey sector can only fail against this potential target.
The figure of 500,000 tonnes is described as an “estimated potential”. Given that it is a potential figure and not actually measured there must be a set of assumptions or a model behind it. Most people who cite this figure simply state as their reference point the last person who said it. For example, in a publication recently published by the Kilimo Trust(3) the statistic is attributed to ‘Mr Butele from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF), Uganda’. In a research article by Amulen et al (2017)(4) the statistic is referenced to Kalinzi et al (2015)(5). Kalinzi et al (2015) cite two sources Horn (2004) and Nadelman et al (2005). The Uganda Apiculture Sector Profile(6) mentions the ‘production potential of 500,000 tonnes per annum reported by Professor Helmut Horn of Germany in 1999’: maybe this is the original source. It would be interesting to see the methodology and assumptions on which the 500,000 figure was based.
1. It is incorrect World annual honey production is approaching two million (2,000,000) tonnes. How could 25% be produced in one African nation? The land area of Uganda is only 0.0016% of the total world land area(1), or to put it another way, China is 4,000 times larger in land area yet only comes close at 490,839 tonnes of honey per annum(2).
Does it mean there is scope for more bees, more beekeepers, or more trees? Or does it mean that available honey is not being marketed?
Let us consider what these assumptions might be. The current population of Uganda is estimated to be 42 million(7). But the production potential statistic dates, it appears, from 1999. The population of Uganda in 1999 was 21 million(8). Let us say an average beekeeper harvests 25 kg of honey per year. A honey harvest of 500,000 tonnes (500,000,000 kg) of honey would be the work of 20 million beekeepers – almost the entire population in 1999. And that is not families, that is individuals and so must include every man, woman and child regardless of age, ability or inclination. Notwithstanding questions about available forage this must be impossible.
Table 1. Honey production against land area
4. Makes the beekeeping sector look bad
See Table 1 for a summary of this data.
2. What does ‘production potential’ mean?
Country/ place
Land area (km2)
China (worlds’ largest honey producer) World
9,388,211 129,733,172
Uganda
200,520
Actual honey production 2016 (tonnes)
490,839 1,786,999 Stated potential 500,000
Ugandan beekeepers, organisations and development projects which support the sector are working hard to develop apiculture in Uganda. If they are aiming for an unrealistic target they are bound to fail. It is not useful or right to hold a sector to an ideal and a target which is unrealistic. If the beekeeping sector will always be said to be underperforming until the total honey production in the country exceeds that of China, then the sector is doomed to forever fail. For example, a news article published on the UK’s University of Bangor’s website in 2017 used the word ‘fail’ in the headline: ‘Uganda fails to fill its honey pot’, and it is not surprising that half way down the page is written: “Uganda currently harvests only 1% of a potential 500,000 tonnes of honey per year”(9).
Honey production (calculated) (tonnes/ km2)
0.050 0.014
2.490
Beekeeping is an important source of income for many thousands of farming families in Uganda. The achievements of the sector need to be properly
Source of data for land area (2) Source of data for honey production (1)
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