The beekeeping sector needs realistic data

Janet Lowore and Nicola Bradbear

At Bees for Development we have long been aware of one honey production statistic that keeps appearing in reports and articles, and yet generates considerable disquiet in our office. It is this: Uganda is repeatedly stated to have an ‘estimated production potential of 500,000 tonnes of honey per year (1) . We are extremely uncomfortable with this statistic for the following reasons:

1. It is clearly incorrect 2. What does production potential mean?

3. The method and assumptions for the estimate are unknown

4. The Ugandan honey sector can only fail against this potential target.

1. It is incorrect

World annual honey production is approaching two million (2,000,000) tonnes. How could 25% be produced in one African nation? The land area of Uganda is only 0.0016% of the total world land area (1) , or to put it another way, China is 4,000 times larger in land area yet only comes close at 490,839 tonnes of honey per annum (2) .

See Table 1 for a summary of this data.

2. What does ‘production potential’ mean?

Does it mean there is scope for more bees, more beekeepers, or more trees? Or does it mean that available honey is not being marketed?

(1) Source of data for land area

(2) Source of data for honey production

Table 1. Honey production against land area. * The original article shows a table which is not available on this mobile friendly version.

Country/ place : China (worlds’ largest honey producer)

Land area (km 2 ): 9,388,211

Actual honey production 2016 (tonnes): 490,839

Honey production (calculated) (tonnes/ km 2 ): 0.050

-

Country/ place : World

Land area (km 2 ): 129,733,172

Actual honey production 2016 (tonnes): 1,786,999

Honey production (calculated) (tonnes/ km 2 ): 0.014

-

Country/ place: Uganda

Land area (km 2 ): 200,520

Actual honey production 2016 (tonnes): 500,000

Honey production (calculated) (tonnes/ km 2 ): 2.490

-

3. Method and assumptions for the prediction not known

The figure of 500,000 tonnes is described as an “estimated potential”. Given that it is a potential figure and not actually measured there must be a set of assumptions or a model behind it. Most people who cite this figure simply state as their reference point the last person who said it. For example, in a publication recently published by the Kilimo Trust (3) the statistic is attributed to ‘Mr Butele from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF), Uganda’. In a research article by Amulen et al (2017) (4) the statistic is referenced to Kalinzi et al (2015) (5) . Kalinzi et al (2015) cite two sources Horn (2004) and Nadelman et al (2005). The Uganda Apiculture Sector Profile (6) mentions the ‘production potential of 500,000 tonnes per annum reported by Professor Helmut Horn of Germany in 1999’: maybe this is the original source. It would be interesting to see the methodology and assumptions on which the 500,000 figure was based.

Let us consider what these assumptions might be. The current population of Uganda is estimated to be 42 million (7) . But the production potential statistic dates, it appears, from 1999. The population of Uganda in 1999 was 21 million (8) . Let us say an average beekeeper harvests 25 kg of honey per year. A honey harvest of 500,000 tonnes (500,000,000 kg) of honey would be the work of 20 million beekeepers – almost the entire population in 1999. And that is not families, that is individuals and so must include every man, woman and child regardless of age, ability or inclination. Notwithstanding questions about available forage this must be impossible.

4. Makes the beekeeping sector look bad

Ugandan beekeepers, organisations and development projects which support the sector are working hard to develop apiculture in Uganda. If they are aiming for an unrealistic target they are bound to fail. It is not useful or right to hold a sector to an ideal and a target which is unrealistic. If the beekeeping sector will always be said to be underperforming until the total honey production in the country exceeds that of China, then the sector is doomed to forever fail. For example, a news article published on the UK’s University of Bangor’s website in 2017 used the word ‘fail’ in the headline: ‘Uganda fails to fill its honey pot’, and it is not surprising that half way down the page is written: “Uganda currently harvests only 1% of a potential 500,000 tonnes of honey per year” (9) .

Beekeeping is an important source of income for many thousands of farming families in Uganda. The achievements of the sector need to be properly understood and appreciated and it helps no one to endlessly repeat wrong and damaging data.

Honey for sale during Uganda National Honey Week 2017. This showcase for the sector is a great annual event where the breadth and scale of the Ugandan beekeeping industry is on display

Photos © TUNADO

What is Uganda’s production potential?

The much-quoted production potential of 500,000 tonnes is not a metric that can be measured. An estimate by building a model based on assumptions. In a recent article published in BBKA News (10) the author suggested that the UK honey sector was underperforming by comparing UK’s existing production with that of other European honey producing countries. The article reveals that UK produces 40 kg/km 2 compared to Germany 58 kg/km 2 or Belgium 87kg/ km 2(1) . These yield per km 2 production figures were calculated by dividing honey production figures from FAOSTAT by land area – the same method used in Table 1. This does not necessarily mean that UK beekeepers can easily increase honey production, however it is a useful comparison that provides UK beekeepers with a realistic comparison.

Could Uganda do the same? If we look to Uganda’s neighbour, we see that the Tanzanian production figure is reported to 30,340 tonnes (2) . Tanzania is nearly four times the size of Uganda and has more forest suitable for honey production. A rough analysis might suggest it unlikely for Uganda to produce more honey per km 2 than Tanzania, therefore a production potential of 30,000 tonnes is probably beyond Uganda’s reach.

How much honey does Uganda produce today?

Most countries have difficulty to measure actual honey production, without worrying about trying to work out a hypothetical figure. It is very difficult and expensive to measure actual production figures. FAOSTAT figures (used above) are not complete. Against nine countries FAOSTAT reports ‘data not available’ (including Uganda) and against more than 50 countries FAOSTAT reports imputed data, rather than official statistics.

In Uganda’s Apiculture Sector Profile published in 2010 there is reference to the Ugandan National Livestock Census carried out in 2008, where it is stated that questions about bee hive ownership and hive occupation were included in the Census. This was an excellent and important step in collecting good data for the sector. Details about the Ugandan National Livestock Census are available at www.catalog.ihsn. org/index.php/catalog/3788/related_materials (Accessed 21 August 2018). An extract from the Census questionnaire is shown in Figure 1 *.

3.9 Bee Hives Population

* The original article has a table showing a extract from the Census questionnaire which is not available on this mobile friendly version

Figure 1. Questions asked about bee hives included within the 2008 Uganda National Livestock Census

Unfortunately, the Summary Report of the Ugandan National Livestock Census (11) does not include the results of the bee hive question. Fortunately, the Uganda Apiculture Sector Profile does report the results stating: ‘In the National Livestock Census carried out in 2008, Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) reported that there are about 750,000 bee hives in Uganda, 65.5% of which are colonised and producing an estimated 2,600 tonnes of honey annually’. The authors of the Livestock Census are MAAIF, with the Uganda Bureau of Statistics. It seems surprising that if good data was collected by these two government institutions in 2008 this data is not more widely referenced. It is rare to find good data about bee hive numbers and honey production figures in any country, and it seems that in 2008, MAAIF showed considerable foresight to include this as a metric in the Livestock Census. Might it be that against the production potential of 500,000 tonnes the actual figures of 2,600 tonnes looked just too low? Might it be that misguided adherence to a wrong figure caused Uganda to ‘bury’ real data? If so (and we can only speculate), this is a great shame and demonstrates the damage caused by bad statistics.

Bees for Development asked The Uganda National Apiculture Development Organisation (TUNADO) for the current actual honey production figures for Uganda and this is the answer provided by the Director, Dickson Biryomumaisho:

“We do not know the potential of the country as a whole. In fact, we do not know the current production figures. We do not have the capacity to count how many beekeepers there are in Uganda. We did ask UBOS if this could be included as a question in the national population Census, but they told us it was too expensive. We have asked MAAIF to help us. But they tell us the official data as follows: “Uganda currently harvests only 1% of a potential 500,000 tonnes of honey per year”. We have collected data from our members and those who have provided us with documented records of honey sales tell us that they bring 250 tonnes of honey to market. We have evidence for this statistic. But we also think that this estimate of 250 tonnes is likely to be an underestimate of the country’s production because it excludes nonmembers, home consumption and informal honey selling. We know the importance of good data and are keen to secure resources to conduct a more comprehensive survey of honey production in Uganda”.

End note

Collecting good data about honey production is no easy task, and in this regard Uganda is not unique. Including questions about beekeeping in an official Census as Uganda did in 2008 was a huge step in the right direction. Let us hope they include beekeeping in the next National Livestock Census. If this were so, it might be possible to know whether production has risen in the last ten years. Such a finding would be much more useful than adhering to a piece of bad data.

No one knows for sure the actual volume of honey harvested from Uganda’s honey bees, but we do know this:

1. Uganda does not have a production potential of 500,000 metric tonnes

2. It is important to have good data so that we can measure achievements and progress towards and establish realistic targets.

Table 2. Honey import and export data – did you know? (12). * The original article shows a table which is not available on this mobile friendly version.

Imports in 2017

Germany - 89,596 Metric tonnes

UK - 46,093 Metric tonnes

Exports in 2017

Argentina - 70,321 Metric tonnes

Brazil - 27,052 Metric tonnes

Mexico - 27,722 Metric tonnes

References

1. WORLD BANK (2018) Land area information from data. worldbank.org/indicator/ag.lnd.totl.k2?view=map

2. FAOSTAT (2016) Data on agricultural production available from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#search/honey [Accessed 20 August 2018].

3. KILIMO TRUST (2018). Agri-business Potential in the Watershed Areas of Wadelai, Tochi, Mubuku II, Doho and Ngenge Irrigation Schemes. Draft unpublished report available from TUNADO library.

4. AMULEN,R.D.; D’HAESE,M.; AHIKIRIZA,E.; AGEA,J.G.; JACOBS,F.J.; DE GRAAF,D.C.; SMAGGHE,G; CROSS,P. The buzz about bees and poverty alleviation: Identifying drivers and barriers of beekeeping in sub-Saharan Africa. PLOS. Published 24 February 2017. Available from http:// journals.plos.org/plosone/article/comments?id=10.1371/ journal.pone.0172820 [Accessed 20 August 2018].

5. KALANZI,F.; NANSEREKO,S.; BUYINZA,J.; KIWUSO,P.; TURINAYO,Y.; MWANJA,C. Socio-economic analysis of beekeeping enterprise in communities adjacent to Kalinzu forest, Western Uganda. Int J Res land-use Sustain [Internet]. 2015; 2:81–90. Available from: http:// www.landusesustainabilityjournal.org/socioeconomicanalysis-of-beekeeping-enterprise-in-communitiesadjacent-to-kalinzu-forest-westernuganda.html [Accessed 20 August 2018 ]

6. The Uganda Apiculture Sector Profile 2010.

7. https://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/ uganda?year=2018 [Accessed 17 August 2018]

8. https://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/ uganda?year=1999 [Accessed 17 August 2018]

9. https://www.bangor.ac.uk/reo/news/uganda-fails-to-fillits-honey-pot-31297 [Accessed 17 August 2018]

10. JONES,S. (2018), Rising to the global opportunity. BBKA News 225: 188-189.

11. UBOS(2018) A summary report of the Uganda national livestock census 2008. Available from http://catalog. ihsn.org/index.php/catalog/3788/related_materials [Accessed 20 August 2018

12. https://comtrade.un.org/data/ [Accessed 20 August 2018]