2014 01 30 furniture market en

Belarusian furniture market: market overview & analysis of distribution channels into Russian furniture market Minsk, 2014

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2

I.

Furniture market situation in Belarus

II.

Russian furniture market overview

III. Assessment of various distribution channels utilization efficiency

3

Belarusian furniture market grows mainly due to the increase in prices and wages, while 20-25% of the market are the informal sector Furniture consumption dynamics including the informal sector, m USD

Furniture consumption dynamics in Belarus (official figures), m USD +10%

319

2007

399

2008

438

357

2009

2010

440

2011

519

2012

137

2007

4

2008

140

2009

164

2010

144

2011

163

649 130

475 119

319

399

357

438

440

519

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Official figures

Belarusian furniture market structure, %

+4%

173

587 147

498 100

425 106

Informal sector Furniture consumption dynamics in Belarus, ths tons

547 109

Informal sector Official market 20-25%

2012

Source: the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus , the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, UN Comtrade, EnterInvest

Furniture market volume depends heavily on the population income level and has a significant potential for further growth provided the economic circumstances are unvarying

Furniture market, m USD

The relation between furniture market capacity and average wages according to official figures

The relation between furniture expenditures and average wages by countries, 2012

550 2012

500

Russia

2008

Belarus

2009

350

98

14.400

9.120

5.388 55

Annual wages, USD Furniture consumption level, USD per person

Furniture expenditures, in % of annual wages

2006

250

Germany

2005

2,09

Czech Republic

250

300

350

400

450

Wages, USD

5

254

46.800

2007

300

100 200

2010

2011

400

150

980

Czech Republic

450

200

Germany

1,76

Russia

1,07

Belarus

1,02

by 1,7 times

-5%

Source: the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus , the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus, Sander Design, news sites

Under upside scenario of market growth, domestic consumption volumes might increase by more than 50%, up to 995 million dollars by 2015 Planned increase in average annual wages in Belarus, USD/month

The forecast of domestic consumption volumes in Belarus, m USD

+14%

449

509

601

670

+15% 872 765

2012

2013

2014

2015

Assumptions Import volume does not pass 20%

649 92

The economy of the country advances in accordance with the Program for Social and Economic Development in 2011-2015

The informal sector is steady and comprises around 20% of overall consumption

2012

Furniture consumption increases in proportion to wage increase

108

123

141 199

+53%

174

153

130

427

6

995

504

2013

Import Informal sector

575

2014

655

2015

Made in Belarus

Source: Program for Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus in 2011–2015, IMF, EnterInvest

About 95% of domestic market is household furniture, 78 % of which are cabinet and upholstered furniture Furniture consumption pattern by scope of application, m USD 519 26 (5%)

Office

Furniture consumption pattern in Belarus by core sectors, m USD 62

493 (95%)

Total 2012 Furniture production pattern in Belarus by core sectors, m USD

166 1%

Household

9 2%

517

Other

Total 2012

12%

31% 280 3%

Kitchen Other

Upholstered

12% 2% 54% 32%

Cabinet Assumptions Âť Market structure is similar to production pattern Âť 70% of office furniture is cabinet furniture and 30% is upholstered furniture

7

51%

Cabinet Upholstered Kitchen Office

Household

Source: the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, news sites, EnterInvest

Each year about 45-60% of furniture produced in Belarus is exported. The lion’s share of exports, which is 75%, goes to Russia Furniture exports, m USD and % of production volume

389 (59%)

2007

+13%

466 (53%) 271 (46%)

2008

Furniture exports, ths tons

2009

321 (46%)

2010

391 (52%)

2011

386 (52%)

2012

178

2007

+13%

174

2008

106

121

2009

2010

Export pattern by sales geography, %

73%

75%

77%

7%

9%

22%

10%

18%

15%

11% 12%

2008 2009 2010 Russia Kazakhstan

2011 Other

77%

7%

4% 18%

21%

2007

8

71%

73%

Source: UN Comtrade, EnterInvest

2012

133

2011

153

2012

I.

Furniture market situation in Belarus

II.

Russian furniture market overview

III. Assessment of various distribution channels utilization efficiency

9

Since 2008 annual furniture market growth rate in Russian Federation has been about 13%, where imports share is sizeable and grows steadily Furniture consumption dynamics in Russia, bn USD +13% 9,8 2,3

Furniture production dynamics in Russia, bn USD

13,5

14,1

10,7 2,4

3,6

3,9

8,5 2,4

9,4 2,5

7,4

6,1

6,9

8,3

9,9

10,2

3,1

3,4

2,7

2,9

3,3

3,5

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Informal sector

+3%

Official market Imports share in furniture consumption, %

10

48%

47%

51%

53%

55%

54%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: The Association of furniture and woodworking enterprises of Russia

Top market share, as in Belarus, is household furniture while core sales markets are Moscow and Moscow region Russian furniture market structure by sectors, %

Furniture consumption regional pattern in 2011 in Russia, % Moscow

10%

14%

20%

Moscow region

14% 55%

90%

80%

5% 4% 4% 4%

Sverdlovsk region

Leningrad region Tumen region Rostov region Other

Office furniture consumption regional pattern in 2011 in Russia, % Moscow Volga Federal District (FD)

6% 8% 2% 8%

2003-2004

2010-2012

Office furniture Household furniture

11

Source: MAAN group

43%

10%

Northwestern FD (including S.-Petersburg) Siberian FD Ural FD Central FD

10% 13%

Southern FD Far Eastern FD

Cabinet furniture market is not consolidated while more than 50% office furniture market is occupied by three major players Cabinet furniture sales pattern in Russian market, %

Office furniture sales pattern in Russia, %

Ikea

Felix

10%

Informal sector

25%

“Shatura” 8%

Other players

24%

36%

5% “Maria”

5% MZ5

36%

12

2% 4% “Stolplit” 2% “Angstrem” “Lubimiy dom” “TriYa” “Lazurit”

4% 4%

Kraft Sp mebel

Source: “Proinvestconsulting“, expert judgment, company’s data, EnterInvest

20% Defo

12% Unitex

Belarusian furniture prospects are mostly associated with good positioning , when, with similar quality factors, advantage is achieved from lower prices Cabinet furniture positioning on Russian market Quality

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Germany

Belarus China Russia Belarus 0

1.000

Italy

China

Germany

3,3

Italy Russia

Price

2.000

3.000

4.000

Furniture market volume in Russia, bn USD 2012

China

Belarus Russia

10,7

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

10.000

Belarusian furniture share in Moscow market, %

7%

14,1

Moscow and Moscow region The rest of Russia Assumptions 60% of Belarusian furniture exports to Russia goes to Moscow

13

9.000

Source: RBC, news sites, companies’ sites, EnterInvest

93%

The interest towards Belarusian furniture is comparable to the interest to Italian goods due to their significant advantage for key characteristics over most Russian competitors Natural raw material content

Quality product

Modern design

Reasonable price

Belarusian furniture Russian furniture Foreign furniture High degree of characteristics

The number of requests in search engine Yandex in 2012 in Russia, ths times “Belarusian furniture” “Italian furniture”

14

Low degree of characteristics

Comment 377,9

274,6

Source: Mebel Professional, RBC, BelMebel, Yandex

In 2012, 377,9 thousand requests “Belarusian furniture” were generated through the search engine Yandex in Russia, while, for comparison, “Italian furniture” was requested 274,6 thousand times. This figure speaks volumes for the popularity of Belarusian furniture among the Russians

Currently, the Russian and Belarusian markets is not "ripe" for the European business model, in which the business of manufacturing and selling are separate what leads to the need to develop its own sales network The European model

3%

Model of Russia and Belarus

8%

10%

4% 3%

4% 24%

13%

15% 63%

12%

20% 18%

Network retail Independent retailers Purchase through catalogs Manufacturing custom Not furniture retailers Other channels retail network

15

Source: RBC, news sites, Smartcebuproject, EnterInvest

Shopping Malls Independent retailers Furniture retailers Large-scale network (Ikea, Hoff) Manufacturing custom Internet Markets

I.

Furniture market situation in Belarus

II.

Russian furniture market overview

III. Assessment of various distribution channels utilization efficiency

16

There are several key options for supply to Russian market

Furniture distribution options in Russian market 1

2

3

4

5

17

»

Lease of space in large furniture centers

»

Entry into retail chains

»

Show-room based online-shop

»

Own store in Moscow (lease of space for own store)

»

Dealer and wholesaler involvement

The most in-demand furniture retail format is multi-format furniture center, which in due course will be replaced by specialized shopping centers The development of a large-size furniture retail in Russia « Seizure» of the market

“Uncivilized commerce” » «Nameless» stores » Markets

Fight for the patronage

» «Civilized» commerce stores which core competencies are «large» and/or «cheap»

» New comfort-oriented shops, easy-to-buy Europe

Russia Multi-format retail facilities

The emergence of international furniture centers (IKEA, Kika)

The emergence of specialized furniture centers

The share of large shopping center furniture sales in sales volume, %

2009 2012

18

Source: RBC, news sites, EnterInvest

35% 36%

Increased level of incentives when choosing a place for shopping

The cost of entry into large-size furniture retail facilities is relatively low and is about 0,3 million USD, while operational costs will be no less than 0,34 million USD The cost of entry into furniture centers (retail facility of 175 m2), ths USD Registration of a company

5

Initial contribution

due to a wide range of furniture and full coverage of all price segments

150

» When you promote the center you also promote all the brands being sold there

47

Advance for the lease (retail+stock) Space planning and arrangement

44

Branding

40

Total costs

Lease payment

120

Wages

11

Marketing

19

» There are other services attractive for visitors (cafes, restaurants, car services, cash machines, entertainment sectors, etc.)

285

Operational costs (retail facility of 175 m2), ths USD a year

Tax

» A furniture center attracts more target buyers

» The necessity to compete with major furniture brands in Russia » There are requirements for initial contribution and product range

» Target audience is not formed independently, you work with customer pool that has been already created

20 24

Stock

160

Total costs

336

Source: companies’ sites, news sites, EnterInvest

The entry into retail chains, where 20% of all furniture sales in Russian market are made, is possible only for office furniture, at the extreme complexity – for household cabinet furniture Buying preferences when choosing a place for furniture shopping, %

Major furniture chains structure in Russia broken down by formats, %

64%

Office furniture

13%

36%

4% 42%

10%

Cabinet furniture 0%

14%

17%

Kitchen furniture

Internet Large shopping centers Independent furniture stores Furniture retail chains Make-to-order Markets

20

28%

Upholstered furniture

Source: RBC, companies’ sites, client’s data, EnterInvest

72%

100%

8%

92%

Multibrand

Monobrand

Currently, this channel is a big players domain, though strategically the market is inclined to increase the proportion of retail chains The share of retail chains in Russia and EU, %

Chain

Retail format

Thu number of stores

multibranding

By 2 times

>600

Own product 70%

63% 30% Russia

EU

Comment As a result of fragmented market and relatively low level of furniture retail chains development as a sales channel, major market members have to create their own retail chains to sell own products

monobranding

>250

100%

monobranding

>250

100%

monobranding

100%



   

monobranding

>120

100%

monobranding

>130

100%



70%



100%



multibranding

monobranding

21

>200

Franchising

Source: RBC, Smartcebuproject, companies’ sites

>60

>15

Furniture Internet-trading in Russia is in the making, however global tendencies make it possible to predict a considerable increase in onlinesales Furniture online sales market share, % Germany

Cost of Internet-store launch , ths USD Registration of a company

13%

USA

Site development

Advance for website promotion

9%

Show-room design Russia

4%

Advance for lease (show-room+stock)) Total entry cost

»

5 20 10 33

73+

An opportunity to set lower prices at the expense of lower sales costs

»

The customer spends less time on comparing models of various manufactures

»

Customer-centered approach: an opportunity of 3D furniture modeling online, custom furniture manufacturing

»

Customer convenience in terms of time expenditures, an opportunity to buy without living the house

22

5

Source: news sites, companies’ sites, EnterInvest

» Currently there is only restricted audience of users and therefore insignificant scope and potential for sales increase

About a quarter of Russian furniture market is localized in Moscow and Moscow region and the opening of own retail shop seems quite attractive Furniture consumption in Moscow and Moscow region in 2011, bn USD

There are no intermediates «reducing» the margin An opportunity to set independently pricing policy Emphasis on own customers attraction

brand,

loyal

Flexibility due to the opportunity to build up independently the range of products and brands

3,61 bn USD

There are no strict limits and requirements, inculcated by partners

Shop opening costs, ths USD Entry cost

243

Annual average operational costs

23

Source: news sites, companies’ sites, EnterInvest

Self-risk-taking

961

The necessity to create “traffic” of target customers without the help of partners

Furniture sales through intermediates (dealer and wholesalers), despite the fact that manufacturer’s expenditures are not high, still reduce the margin of a manufacturer Ways to look for a dealer Advertisements in local media (newspapers, town internet forum, etc..)

Cross-selling (study of furniture fittings distributors sites, noncompeting furniture segments in the list of local dealers of targeted region

» Targeted auditory has been already created

» It saves administrative resources » As a rule, a dealer can offer several options for promotion, does some actions on own initiative » Inferior expenditures/investment on development » A branch opened in the region faces tough competition from local companies operating on the market

Advertisement about a search for a partner in the local paper, on the forum.

Criteria for a choice of a dealer 1» 2» 3» 4» 5» » 6 » 7

Organizational structure of sales system Sales points for several years The kind of product a dealer sells The total number of goods of various manufactures Dealer’s market image Financial aspects Geographical market coverage and targeted groups

24

Source: news sites

Significant loss of margin!

Dealers are often disloyal Dealers are hard to be managed and coordinated It is impossible to control who and in what state gets the goods Sales integration by an uncontrolled dealer enhances the loss of market threat

Our contact information: Minsk

Minsk, Belarus Investment company ÂŤEnterÂť Ltd. 34-210 Sherbakova Str. Tel.: +375 17 266 95 04 Mob..: +375 44 761 28 62 Fax: +375 17 230 95 11 e-mail: info@enter-invest.com

For more detailed information contact: Oleg Chanov

Oleg Andreyev

Andrei Matsiavin

Managing partner Management Consulting

Managing Director, Investment Banking

Business Development Director

34-210 Sherbakova Str. Tel.: +375 17 266 95 04 Mob.: +375 29 652 20 14 Fax: +375 17 230 95 11 e-mail: oa@enter-invest.com

34-210 Sherbakova Str. Tel.: +375 17 266 95 04 Mob.: +375 44 744 99 68 Fax: +375 17 230 95 11 e-mail: oa@enter-invest.com

34-210 Sherbakova Str. Tel.: +375 17 266 95 04 Mob.: +375 29 754 36 12 Fax: +375 17 230 95 11 e-mail: am@enter-invest.com