Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2019

Summer 2019

www.belfercenter.org

OUR ONE EARTH ACTING ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS PAGES 4–5

“Our real aim should be not simply to limit the amount of climate change that occurs (mitigation), but also to reduce the actual harm to society and to ecosystems from the changes in climate that can no longer be avoided (adaptation). Limiting the harm overall will require enormous efforts in both mitigation and adaptation, all around the world.”

–JOHN P. HOLDREN

PLUS: Big Tech & Democracy · Ethics in Intelligence · U.S.-Russia Blueprint

From the Director I

* * * One reason the Belfer Center has such strong academic impact is because of the excellence of its quarterly journal, International Security, and its long-time editor, Sean Lynn-Jones. Sean retired this year after three decades of outstanding service, leading the journal to a repeated No. 1 worldwide ranking. Sean is also an influential writer and scholar: His 1998 article, “Why the United States Should Spread Democracy,” has become a classic. Given his return visits to the Center and continued engagement with scholars, Sean may be failing retirement. But he has succeeded in helping us recruit an outstanding new MARTHA STEWART

n today’s tight labor market, competition for talented young people is fierce. Here at Harvard Kennedy School, that means many graduating students are entertaining several attractive job offers. No doubt they’ll make their new employers happy.

More important than their performance, however, is the spirit of public purpose they bring to their work. This is true for both government and private-sector roles.

Let’s not kid ourselves: governance is hard, especially in democratic nations. It’s messy, inefficient, and contentious. Which is all the more reason for skillful, ethically-centered HKS

Professor Tarek Masoud congratulates new U.S. citizens as he hands them their naturalization certificates.

“The need for leaders who feel responsibility for the public good is arguably even more important in the private sector.”

Staff Spotlight: Amanda Sardonis Amanda Sardonis loves and lives her work.

As Associate Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP), she supports the program’s research, manages student engagement and fellowship programs—including the full-tuition Roy Fellowship—and runs the entire selection process for the prestigious Roy Award for Environmental Partnership presented

by Harvard Kennedy School every two years.

A big part of her job is staying on top of what’s happening in the environmental space so she can help students engage in relevant fieldwork. This awareness is also essential in managing the Roy Award selection, a lengthy process that seeks the most effective environmental partnerships in the world. Her ENRP portfolio is full and varied, but she is especially proud of her work with the Roy Award.

“We’re shining a light on good things that are happening around the world environmentally,” she says. These partnerships “are extremely important and very hard to do, and the participants don’t

graduates to enter the fray. From Capitol Hill and other nations’ capitals to federal, state, and local agencies that work for citizens’ security and rights, ensure electoral integrity, provide environmental protection, and collaborate with international partners, graduates have numerous ways to apply their talent and dedication on behalf of something larger than self.

The need for leaders who feel responsibility for the public good is arguably even more important in the private sector. The challenges we face today are too daunting for any government alone. Engineers, consultants, marketers, and senior managers must all feel a stake in solving our common problems.

Increasingly, HKS grads will transition between the public and private sectors multiple times in their lifetime—bringing a mentality of service and a set of skills with them that edify their professional environments.

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editor, Morgan Kaplan. Morgan, a former Belfer Center fellow, joins us from the Buffet Institute for Global Studies at Northwestern.

generally get the recognition they deserve.”

* * * On a recent quiet Monday afternoon, the sounds of “America the Beautiful” filled our halls. A singer was performing at a citizenship ceremony in the JFK Jr. Forum. Men and women from over 25 countries had assembled to take the oath of citizenship. Several HKS faculty members, including the Belfer Center’s Meghan O’Sullivan and Tarek Masoud, shared remarks about ideas many of us take for granted: freedom, democracy, and self-government. As new citizens took their oath with great reverence, they personified America’s unique motto: e pluribus unum—out of many, one. The same unity of spirit fills the HKS commencement tent. Families from over 100 countries salute graduates who share the same ambition: Ask what you can do.

masters thesis on “Measuring Success in

Newsletter | Summer 2019

Inspired by the Roy Award, she wrote her Harvard Environmental Partnerships” and leads a research project on partnership effectiveness, analyzing data collected from the program since 2003.

Outside of work, Sardonis tries to be conscious of her family’s carbon footprint. Choosing not to own a car, she rides her three-person bike year-round, dropping off and picking up her six- and four-year olds at school and daycare. A vegetarian, she loves to cook and her kids choose what vegetables to grow in their community garden plot.

In her 13 years at ENRP, she has managed a number of projects and interacted with hundreds of “amazing” students and leaders. Witnessing the positive impact of that work, she says, is “pretty cool.”

In a round-table discussion of potential legislative solutions for governing the technology issues of privacy, bias, discrimination, and access, Democracy Fund’s Paul Waters makes a point. Other participants at the table included: former FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn (center), Ambassador Philip Verveer (right), and congressional staffers.

Big Tech and Democracy:

Policy Approaches to Address Tech Platforms

by Bogdan Belei

T

echnology has reached a critical juncture in American society. The unfettered optimism of recent decades is now tempered by rising concerns over privacy and security, the impact of disinformation campaigns, and increasing calls for digital accountability. It is clear that the 116th Congress will face pressure to shape technological innovation through policies that protect and serve the best interests of their various constituents.

In March, two projects at Harvard Kennedy School—the Technology and Public Purpose (TAPP) Project at the Belfer Center and the Platform Accountability Project at the Shorenstein Center for Media, Politics and Public Policy—hosted a workshop in the Capitol Visitors’ Center for congressional staff to identify and discuss policy approaches to the dilemmas of big tech platforms. The day-long workshop sought to create an open space for discussion among congressional staffers and experts in the field, and included chiefs of staff, committee counsels, and legislative directors from both Senate and House offices.

In his opening comments, Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, who heads the Belfer Center’s TAPP Project, emphasized the responsibility that pol­ icymakers have in shaping emerging technology.

By drawing parallels to other “disruptive tech” from the past, such as nuclear technology, Carter stressed the historic opportunity to shape today’s technology for the human good: “Once invented, it can’t be undone.” Carter said case studies from other revolutionary communication technologies—such as the postal service, telegraph, radio, and telephone—can provide insight into

The 116th Congress will face pressure to shape technological innovation through policies that protect and serve the best interests of their constituents.

TAPP’s Ash Carter and Laura Manley walk to the Big Tech workshop at the Capitol in Washington, D.C.

the existing toolbox of self-regulation, antitrust, and regulatory solutions.

The opening panel featured experts who were centrally involved with some of the major reforms in telecommunications and media. They included: Toni Bush, former Senate Commerce Senior Counsel; Mignon Clyburn, former FCC Commissioner; Dipayan Ghosh, Pozen Fellow at the Shorenstein Center and former Privacy and Public Policy Advisor at Facebook; Gene Kimmelman, former Chief Counsel of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division; Hong Qu, Program Director for Technology at the Shorenstein Center and former User Interface Designer at YouTube; and Tom Wheeler, former FCC Chairman.

The panelists explored the multitude of issues at play in the big tech space, such as competition, content accountability, privacy and security, accessibility, and protection of civil rights and liberties. They agreed that any path toward sustainable policy solutions must begin with a public debate and that Congress has a

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

critical role in setting this agenda by launching hearings and engaging diverse actors.

The discussions surfaced four key insights on tech policy challenges facing Congress and how legislators could more effectively engage with the dilemmas of big tech: 1. The digital marketplace and new business models are creating gaps in governance authority and coordination; 2. A healthy mix between self-regulation and government policy is necessary; 3. Congressional hearings are underutilized on technology-relevant topics; 4. Tech policy debates are still ‘pre-partisan.’

The current tech policy environment is nascent and presents a rare opportunity to advance sustainable solutions through a united, bipartisan front.

See the full report at

belfercenter.org/tech-democracy

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ACTING ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS

John Holdren and Ireland’s Mary Robinson.

Henry Lee in Beijing.

What would be sensible targets for and key ingredients of national and global strategies for addressing the climate change challenge?

What advances in the technologies of energy supply and use are most needed to cope with the climate change challenge?

John P. Holdren Co-Director, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program; former Assistant to President Obama for Science and Technology

Henry Lee Director, Environment and Natural Resources Program

“The best that can be hoped for is stabilizing Earth’s temperature at 1.5-2.0ºC above the preindustrial level before the end of the current century. That must be our goal. Achieving it will require: (1) initiating immediately, and sustaining for decades, deep cuts in CO2 emissions from the world’s energy, agricultural, and forestry enterprises, along with cuts in emissions of the other major heat-trapping gases and black soot; and (2) launching efforts worldwide to build resilience against the changes in climate that can no longer be avoided (adaptation). Success in these efforts will depend on imposing a significant price on carbon emissions, worldwide; on large increases in R&D to lower the costs of zero-emitting technologies and adaptation measures; and substantial assistance from developed countries to developing ones.”

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JASON CHAPMAN

MARTHA STWEART

WHAT MUST WE DO NOW?

“Energy patterns in a world constrained by climate change will rely increasingly on electricity, not only to power our buildings, but also to run our cars, heat our homes, and fuel our industrial processes. While individual technologies, such as better storage options, more efficient heat pumps, new ways to make cement or steel and improved electric vehicles will all make a difference, the most imposing challenge is to integrate all of these into a more flexible electric system shaped by regulation characterized more by markets and pricing than by rigid constraints and outdated command and control regimes. The former will provide incentives to both energy consumers and producers as well as hundreds of inventors and innovators who will expand the energy portfolio of the future.”

Newsletter | Summer 2019

Robert Stavins at COP-24 in Poland.

What are the opportunities and challenges of carbon-pricing as an element of U.S. climate strategy?

Robert N. Stavins Director, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements

“There are three reasons most U.S. policy analysts favor carbon-pricing—carbon taxes or carbon cap-and-trade systems. First, given that the sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions number in the hundreds of millions, it is inconceivable that emissions could be effectively regulated through conventional technology or performance standards. But decentralized price signals can affect all sources in proportion to their relative carbon intensity. Second, carbon-pricing mechanisms can achieve targets at the least cost by providing incentives for all sources to control at the same marginal abatement cost. Third, carbon-pricing can provide effective incentives for carbon-friendly technological innovation.

But because other market failures can get in the way of price signals in particular applications, economists recognize that carbon-pricing will not be sufficient. In specific cases, appropriate complementary policies will also be required.”

As numerous studies have made strikingly clear, climate change is increasing much more rapidly than anticipated and its negative impacts are becoming more and more visible around the world. From the escalating extremity of weather events, severe droughts and wildfires, to melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and disastrous floods, climate change is already harming humans and our ecosystems in a myriad of ways.

ALANSO NICHOLS / TUFTS

WE ASKED SEVERAL OF OUR CLIMATE EXPERTS FOR THEIR THOUGHTS ON HOW BEST TO TACKLE OUR CLIMATE CRISIS.

Afreen Saddiqi in Jordan.

What is most needed to limit the harm from climate change to developing countries?

Afreen Sadiqqi , Visiting Scholar, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program

“Developing countries need adaptation capacity to limit the harm from climate change. In particular, their systems of food and water should receive high priority. Agriculture is of significant socio-economic importance in developing countries, and in some cases, it constitutes a large fraction of national GDP and contributes to livelihoods for millions. It is also the largest water-consuming sector in most countries. A twin focus on adaptation of agriculture and water management is critical with an eye towards not only mitigating risks (such as crop failures or floods) but also potentially harnessing new opportunities (such as production of new types of crops or multi-season production). This will require a trio of use of new technologies, development of infrastructure, and synergistic policies.”

Kelly Gallagher with Al Gore at Tufts.

How should we think about China’s role in addressing global climate change?

Kelly Gallagher, Belfer Center Board of Directors; Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy, Fletcher School, Tufts University

“China is intrinsically important to solving the climate challenge as the largest global emitter, but it is also symbolically important as a leader in the global arena. When President Trump announced he intended to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, President Xi responded with a speech where he said, ‘All parties should work together to implement the Paris agreement. China will continue to take steps to tackle climate change and fully honor its obligations.’ Together with the U.S., China paved the way for the Paris Agreement by announcing its targets early, inspiring many other developing countries to do so as well. China also appears to be on track to achieve its Paris targets early. The main challenge for China today is to green its Belt and Road Initiative so it does not become a conduit for polluting investments in other developing countries.”

Halla Logadóttir in Iceland.

What is most needed to address the challenges arising from climate change in the Arctic?

Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Co-Director, Arctic Initiative; former Director, Iceland School of Energy, Reykjavik University

“Tackling the many challenges arising from climate change in the rapidly transforming Arctic requires creating and implementing new and innovative science-based policies. Effective collaboration between countries, sectors, experts, disciplines and communities, with the goal of conserving ecosystems while ensuring sustainable development, is a key ingredient for success here. To support that process, it’s critical that we boost research and global education on what a ‘climate changed’ Arctic actually means for people and our planet. Without such understanding, people inside and outside the Arctic are less likely to care and effectively push forward the policies that can help avoid unnecessary environmental, geopolitical, and economic risks in the future.”

See more from these and other climate experts at

belfercenter.org/climate-experts

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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BOBBY GIULIANI

Harvard Kennedy School organizers of the 2019 Women in Power conference celebrate the gathering along with some of the event presenters and participants.

Women in Power Conference: Rise. Challenge. Thrive.

H

arvard Kennedy School’s student-organized Women in Power Conference, co-sponsored by the Belfer Center, attracted students, faculty, and community members who took advantage of the two-day opportunity in April to explore, discuss, and debate important issues relating to the advancement of women in leadership.

and congressional delegates as well as a former EPA administrator and an under secretary of energy, and the current spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Belfer Center members who took part in the conference included Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, HKS faculty members Erica Chenoweth, Zoe Marks, and Kathy Pham, Arctic Initiative Co-Director Halla Logadóttir, digital HKS Associate Director Vanessa Rhinesmith, and Senior Fellow Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall.

The conference theme, “Women in Power: Rise. Challenge. Thrive,” focused on uniting diverse perspectives and experiences relating to women in leadership positions. Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of Oxfam International and a leading women’s rights activist, launched the conference by debunking myths about the global economy and discussing hidden and visible barriers for women and girls that deny them opportunities.

“The Women in Power Conference, the second women’s conference at the School, brought together more than 300 attendees and 70 panelists to explore issues and challenges facing women in public policy today,” said Alexandra (Alex) Schmitt, a conference co-organizer. “We’re extremely grateful for the Belfer Center’s ongoing support of this conference, which helps make sure that we get to spend a full weekend exploring how women can rise, challenge, and thrive at HKS and in their careers beyond.”

BOBBY GIULIANI

Panels covered a range of issues from debiasing classrooms and cracking the political glass ceiling to the future of women in the Republican Party, and the role of gender in climate change. The panelists included Kennedy School students and women in an array of power positions such as professors, CEOs of non-profit and for-profit organizations, mayors,

Belfer Center faculty affiliate Kathy Pham (right) and digital HKS Associate Director Vanessa Rhinesmith (second from right) pose with fellow panelists, (left to right) Heather Krause, Ali Martell, and Anisha Asundi, following their discussion on “Women in Technology and Gender Data Gaps.”

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Panels covered a range of issues from debiasing classrooms and cracking the political glass ceiling to the future of women in the Republican Party and the role of gender in climate change.

Newsletter | Summer 2019

AP/ALESSANDRA TARANTINO

CRISTINE RUSSELL

Harvard Kennedy School student Katie Segal (left photo), playing teenage Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg (shown in photo on right), calls for a School Strike for Climate.

HKS students waiting to speak (left photo): Kalia Firester (playing Dr. Peter Winsor, World Wildlife Fund) and Ankur Dhanuka (playing Anders Oskal, Association of World Reindeer Herders).

“The Big Melt” on Primetime

Arctic Role-Play Exercise Showcases Debate I

“The Arctic climate story needs to be better told by all parties, from politicians to the press.”

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

questions were directed at President Trump, which perfectly illustrated his real-life ability to dominate any conversation and the news media’s inability to sufficiently challenge his false narrative about the Arctic.”

CRISTINE RUSSELL

HKS student Laura Merryfield, as CNN host Anderson Cooper, opened the show with a warning: “Temperatures are rising twice as fast in the Arctic, and glacial melting is already causing drastic changes to the region.” The broadcast featured a series of imitation press conferences from Reykjavík, Iceland in which students gave two-minute opening remarks before taking tough questions from reporters, played by their classmates.

“I chose the Arctic as our student role-play topic to dramatize challenges in communicating the urgency of the climate change crisis to the global public,” said HKS Adjunct Lecturer and Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) Senior Fellow Cristine Russell. A science journalist, Russell has joined ENRP staff and HKS students at the Arctic Circle Assembly meetings in Reykjavík since 2015. “The Arctic climate story needs to be better told by all parties, from politicians to the press,” she said.

In the first faux press conference, –Cristine Russell following a hypothetical Arctic Summit, Iceland’s President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson “The Arctic exercise improved my (played by HKS student Nikhil Kumar) diplounderstanding of the many stakeholders who matically welcomed American President Donald influence the future of the Arctic and espeTrump (played by Amy Chyao, Harvard Law cially helped me learn how to communicate School). Trump promptly struck a divisive note: “I my message in a short amount of time,” said don’t really care about the Arctic National Wildlife Segal, an MPP student and research assistant Refuge if I’m being honest,” pushing instead for oil for the Arctic Initiative. In the tightly scripted drilling off the pristine Alaskan coast.

The Arctic simulation, noted Kumar, 75-minute cable television simulation, 20 students played international leaders in governshowed students how “working with a U.S. ment, business, environment, climate science, president uninterested in compromise or facts Indigenous rights, and journalism. prevented us from making a dent in the United States’ position. Moreover, all of the journalists’

n a role-play exercise that was the capstone for a Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) spring course, “Controversies in Climate, Energy, and the Media: Improving Public Communication,” students played the roles of world leaders and activists speaking on a fictitious cable television program titled, “The Big Melt: The Future of the Arctic.”

Carrying a “School Strike for Climate” sign (in Swedish), Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) student Katie Segal—playing the role of 16-year-old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg—gave a passionate plea for international action to help save the Arctic: “I’m just one voice but I represent the voice of the youth who cannot speak.” The fictitious program was modeled after a CNN Anderson Cooper 360° primetime show.

Kennedy School student Laura Merryfield, playing the role of CNN anchor Anderson Cooper, speaks “to camera” during a simulated Anderson Cooper 360 broadcast on the future of the Arctic.

In other segments of the “CNN” class broadcast, Chinese and Russian representatives promoted new commercial shipping routes through Arctic waters. Indigenous leaders called for a greater voice in the future of their native lands. American climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe (played by Thomas Han, Harvard College) said “the most dangerous myth about climate change is that it doesn’t affect you personally….We need to engage people in their hearts” and convince them Arctic climate change impacts people as well as polar bears.

During the exercise, a live in-class blog of the broadcast scrolled on a classroom screen, written by auditor Jason Dearen, an MIT Knight Science Journalism Fellow and former AP correspondent. Several students voiced a familiar refrain: “What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”

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FROM INTELLIGENCE AND ETHICS...

Ethical and Moral Issues in the Intelligence Community In May, a number of former intelligence officers, policymakers, cyber experts, and top journalists took part in a Belfer Center Intelligence Project conference titled “The Ethics & Morality of Intelligence.”

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Director of the Intelligence Project and former Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence at DOE, noted that as the world grows more complex, leaders and policymakers increasingly rely on intelligence to advance and defend their national interests. But this trend comes at a cost. There is a heightened risk of political figures violating long-standing norms of behavior that have historically constrained intelligence activity. This can take a number of forms, from manipulating elections and silencing dissent abroad to stoking low-intensity conflict or undermining the principle of objectivity.

Speakers at “The Ethics & Morality of Intelligence” conference identified and discussed key moral and ethical questions around the nature of current intelligence practices and future trends.

In a Harvard Gazette article about the conference, Christina Pazzanese wrote the following (excerpt):

In one session, project director Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former career CIA officer, asked panelists how politics intersects with intelligence. The group debated whether any intelligence work is ever free from politics, given that agencies work for a head of state who decides what priorities are pursued and what information will be shared with the public, and when.

For Valerie Plame, the politicization of intelligence was something “I experienced quite personally.” Plame, a former covert operations officer working in nuclear counterproliferation, recounted how politics derailed her career at the CIA during the run-up to the Iraq War. Her identity was infamously made public in 2003 by the conservative columnist Robert Novak, with help from senior White House officials, in retaliation for her then-husband Ambassador Joe Wilson’s public criticism of the Bush administration’s push for war.

Her outing, Plame said, began a bewildering time of fear for the safety of her family and her source network and uncertainty fighting the administration in court and in the media.

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Valerie Plame, a former covert operations officer and current candidate for U.S. Congress, recalls the impact of her cover being blown in political retaliation. Former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers took part in the discussion.

“I wish the intelligence business was a binary question every time....

Unfortunately, it is almost never a binary decision [at the time].”

–Mike Rogers

“Sometimes you’re going to deal with some very unseemly people in the intelligence business”—many of whom have done “some horrific things,” said Mike Rogers, a former Republican Congressman from Michigan who chaired the House Intelligence Committee from 2011 to 2015 and served as an FBI special agent.

For intelligence officers to gather information about a group’s intentions or capabilities, they often have to infiltrate and gain credibility with that group, which likely means engaging in activities “that we would all find morally objectionable,” said Rogers.

In that difficult environment, there are times when practitioners have to make close calls, and they don’t always get it right. “I wish Newsletter | Summer 2019

the intelligence business was a binary question every time....Unfortunately, it is almost never a binary decision when you make it,” he said.

The keys to an ethical intelligence service are making sure officers are disciplined and well-trained in ethics, and ensuring that operations are closely guided by legal counsel and services are subject to regular, rigorous congressional oversight, Rogers said.

David Sanger, a veteran national security correspondent for The New York Times and a Belfer Center fellow and lecturer, said disclosing or publishing classified information is part of the job for reporters on his beat, but added that he uses great care, and the information is often the last piece of a puzzle that was started using open-source material and reporting.

For a full list of conference speakers, see belfercenter.org/IntelEthics For the complete Harvard Gazette article, see “Former FBI, CIA officers, lawmakers, analysts discuss ethical and moral issues,” May 10, 2019.

TO ELECTIONS AND SECURITY

More than 120 Idaho election officials gathered in March for their first statewide training in how to prevent and deal with cyber and information attacks. The Secretary of State’s Tabletop Exercise (TTX) was assisted by the Defending Digital Democracy team (standing by wall).

D3P Helps States Increase Security for 2020 Elections A s threats to U.S. elections multiply, the Belfer Center’s Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) continues to help election officials fight back. Coordinated by D3P’s Mari Dugas, the Defending Digital Democracy team of staff and students has worked during the year with state and local election officials in their own states across the country to conduct election security tabletop exercises and has also expanded engagement with cybersecurity professionals.

In March, D3P sent a team of students and staff to present at the RSA Conference.

Selected from thousands of applicants to make presentations at the conference, the team conducted a training simulation or tabletop exercise (TTX) to help participants learn more about how officials across the U.S. are securing elections. Along with 45,000 other attendees in San Francisco’s Moscone Center, the D3P team also previewed some of the cybersecurity community’s most cutting-edge research.

“Ultimately, all elections are local,” said D3P’s student team leader Jordan D’Amato.

“There’s an alignment between the skillsets of cybersecurity professionals and the need to secure elections. So, there are very real and concrete ways that these folks can make a difference in their own communities.”

The team’s emphasis on cross-sector collaboration was echoed by FBI Director Christopher Wray. In his conference keynote, Wray explained that while adversaries continue to surveil election infrastructure and conduct malign foreign influence operations, some of

the most positive developments have come from federal engagement with private sector partners.

In April, D3P assisted the Virginia Department of Elections in conducting its first-ever statewide election security tabletop exercise. D3P members Reed Southard and Matthew Podolin served as moderators for the exercise, which pitted nearly 100 local election officials against a fictional but plausible scenario featuring a range of cyber and physical threats to election infrastructure.

Additional Efforts to Combat Cyber and Disinformation Attacks in the U.S. and Abroad Earlier this year, the Defending Digital Democracy Project published a report that describes the propaganda and information operation threats against U.S. democracy and offers 10 recommendations that the public and private sector in the United States can take now to combat information operations.

The National Counter-Information Operations Strategy report is the work of Gabriel Cederberg,

“The Belfer Center greatly enhanced our ability to put on an exceptional event.”

Jordan D’Amato, Corinna Fehst, Simon Jones, Kunal Kothari, Aleksandra Milcheva, and Irene Solaiman. It can be accessed at belfercenter.org/ CounterInfoOps.

–Chad Houck, Deputy Secretary of State, Idaho

The Virginia training followed a similar session in Idaho where team members Matt McCalpin and Gabe Cederberg helped run Idaho’s first statewide election tabletop exercise sponsored by the Office of the Idaho Secretary of State. More than 120 election officials participated in the exercise where they were confronted with worst-case scenarios intended to prepare them for potential threats to the 2020 election.

“The Belfer Center greatly enhanced our ability to put on an exceptional event,” said Chad Houck, Idaho’s Deputy Secretary of State.

“We couldn’t have pulled it off without their support and the resources they provided.”

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In addition to D3P playbooks for state and local election officials and campaign officials in the United States, it has produced—along with the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute—campaign playbooks adapted for use in English-speaking European countries and translated for campaigns in a number of other countries worried about cyber and information attacks on their campaigns.

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Q&A:

Karen Elliott House

Q

What inspired you to become a journalist?

In my small high school class (17) in Matador, Texas, I was class reporter because I could spell.

Those stories appeared in the town weekly, The Matador Tribune, where I got an afterschool job doing everything from editing stories to setting type. The publisher, Douglas Meador, believed the role of a newspaper was essential to our community cohesion. He inspired me to believe that the role of a reporter is essential to communities larger than Matador because we inform and engage others in public affairs—in my case international affairs.

Q

What lessons have you learned about how to build trust with sources and subjects?

It is simple: always be totally direct and straight, and never have any agenda beyond soliciting information from the source on behalf of readers/listeners/viewers.

“Always be totally direct and straight, and never have any agenda beyond soliciting information from the source on behalf of readers/ listeners/viewers.”

Q

How worried are you about the sustainability of independent journalism?

I worry for two reasons. First traditional newspapers are shrinking and dying, and other forms of media like cable and the Internet are much more focused on opinion than on factual news

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gathering. Secondly, traditional journalistic standards are eroding as reporters increasingly become part of the story, not dispassionate observers of what they see and hear. The Wall Street Journal happily remains a publication that clearly separates news and opinion both in print and online.

COURTESY KAREN ELLIOTT HOUSE

Belfer Center Senior Fellow Karen Elliott House is a longtime reporter and former publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

She has covered Saudi Arabia for a number of years and written extensively on the country. Her most recent Belfer Center report is Profile of a Prince: Promise and Peril in Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030.

Q

What are the most striking changes you have witnessed in Saudi Arabia since your first visit?

I have visited Saudi for more than 40 years as a journalist and more recently an author.

Over those years there have been periods of deep conservatism and now relative liberalization. But the single most striking change has been the role of women who today are increasingly free—and encouraged by government—to pursue careers (not just as teachers of girls) drive cars, attend sporting events and concerts, mix publicly with unrelated men, and generally lead far freer lives than at any time in the past 40 years. Yes, there are still restrictions on Saudi women but fewer than in the past, and as the social norm changes ever more, Saudis will feel comfortable adopting the new freedoms.

Q

What do you wish more Westerners understood about Saudi?

I want them to understand Saudis are not a caricature. We Texans often are stereotyped as cowboys and drawling hicks. Similarly, Saudi men are stereotyped as oppressors or worse yet, terrorists, and women as victims. Obviously Saudi, like Texas, defies stereotypes.

Newsletter | Summer 2019

Karen Elliott House poses with a falcon and a Saudi boy in Al-`Ula, Saudi Arabia, January 2019.

Q

What is your favorite hobby?

My favorite hobby is history and my favorite pastime is reading books, particularly on Islam and on Arab history.

Q

What do you value most about your affiliation with the Belfer Center?

Here in the United States, it is the opportunity to interact with its serious scholars and practitioners. Abroad, I am grateful for the prestige that the Belfer Center and Harvard convey to Saudis and others around the world with whom I interact.

Read Karen Elliott House’s latest report at

belfercenter.org/profile-prince

Spotlight:

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen

Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is departing as Director of the Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. In that capacity, he has run the Recanati-Kaplan Foundation Fellowship, which educates rising thought leaders in national and international intelligence. He previously served for a quarter century in intelligence, both in the CIA, where he became station chief in Moscow, and the U.S. Department of Energy, where he was Director of Intelligence and Counterintelligence. After 9/11, he led Washington’s efforts to determine whether al Qaeda had WMD capabilities and to prevent a nuclear terrorist attack.

by Josh Burek

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“Take a seat somewhere where you learn something new and your views are challenged every day.”

Today, he feels fortunate to guide a growing class of Recanati-Kaplan Fellows. These fellows, nominated by their countries’ intelligence services and approved by the Belfer Center, hail from the United States, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries. They have spent a year of intensive study at Harvard Kennedy School where they conducted independent research projects. “Being a mentor to students and staff concerning their career interests in serving intelligence, defense, and diplomacy has been the highlight of my time at the Belfer Center,” says Mowatt-Larssen. “I feel like a proud father every time a student opts to enter into public service, whether that be in national security fields, non-governmental organizations, or finding other ways to serve a higher interest than self.

Never has there been a greater need for selfless service and activism in the world.”

From conferences on drones and ethics to conversations with senior officers, the Intelligence Project hosts dozens of events each year that demystify this arena. One thing the Project emphatically does not do is serve as a conduit for espionage on campus. “It would be unacceptable for any intelligence officer to spy on students or undertake intelligence activity on campus,” Mowatt-Larssen confirms. “Like all students, intelligence-affiliated students are at Harvard strictly to study and learn.”

Mowatt-Larssen’s interests range well beyond intelligence. Using the handle “@AmericanMystic,” he tweets frequently on faith, science, and climate change. “My first intellectual love was philosophy and science,” he says. “I never abandoned my love affair, despite the distractions imposed by more practical

matters. In recent years, I’ve been examining my faith through theology and the wisdom of the mystics. I have learned that the mystics of the great faiths have much in common with scientific discovery, and more broadly, in the unrelenting search for truth that scientists and mystics share.”

As he prepares for his next professional chapter—he will continue to research and write as a Belfer Center Senior Fellow— Mowatt-Larssen reflects on the career advice that served him well: “Surround yourself with people smarter than yourself,” he says. “Take a seat somewhere where you learn something new and your views are challenged every day. Break bread with people of integrity, people whose purpose in life is to make the world a better place. That personifies Harvard.”

U.S. EMBASSY/MOSCOW

n the popular imagination, joining the CIA begins with a clandestine recruitment process. For Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, it started with an advertisement in The Washington Post. After graduating from West Point, he was serving in the Army when he spotted the ad while home on break. “I applied to the CIA out of curiosity,” he recalls. “My application process was cryptic and long, which only whetted my appetite to see it through. I wasn’t sure I wanted to end my Army career until I got the job offer from CIA. The excitement I felt was not very thoughtful, but it clinched my decision to become an intelligence officer. I wanted to go to Moscow and battle the KGB. I was lucky enough to get to do that."

1994—Moscow’s Spaso House: Rolf Mowatt-Larssen (back center), then a declared CIA Representative to Russian Intelligence Services in Moscow, stands behind Yevgeniy Primakov, Director of the Russian External Intelligence Services (SVRR), with President Bill Clinton and a senior Russian Orthodox Church official at the U.S. Ambassador’s residence.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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MARTHA STEWART

Belfer Center in Action

12

Combating Extremism: Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach (right) with Farah Pandith, Future of Diplomacy Project Senior Fellow, during a JFK Jr. Forum event titled “How We Win: Beating Extremism Abroad and in the U.S.” Juliette Kayyem moderated the event that included the Anti-Defamation League’s George Selim.

Controlling Emerging Tech: Eric Lander, founding Director of the MIT/Harvard Broad Institute, makes a point during a Faculty Working Group session hosted by Center Director Ash Carter and Engineering / Applied Sciences Dean Frank Doyle.

Participants discussed effective international norms for emerging technology.

Climate and Health: Former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy, currently Director of C-Change at the Harvard School of Public Health, speaks about impacts of climate change on public health at a Directors’ Lunch. Juliette Kayyem, Director of the Center’s Homeland Security Project, also took part in the discussion.

Commanding First: General (ret.) and Center Senior Fellow Lori Robinson, the first woman to command the U.S. Northern Command and NORAD, listens during the Center’s International Council meeting to former Senator Sam Nunn, co-founder of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program.

In the Moment: Belfer Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar shares a light moment with former Ambassadors Nicholas Burns and Samantha Power during a panel discussion on “Reinvigorating Diplomacy,” moderated by Kumar at May’s annual meeting of the Center’s International Council.

Knowledge at Stake: Yan Xuelong, Distinguished Professor and Dean of the Institute of International Relations at China’s Tsinghua University, talks with students following a seminar in which he discussed “U.S.-China Competition in the Age of the Knowledge Economy” with HKS Professor Graham Allison.

Newsletter | Summer 2019

MARTHA STEWART

Powerful and Positive: Nobel Laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former President of Liberia and HKS alumna, discusses “Women’s Solidarity and Africa’s Future” at an event moderated by Professor Zoe Marks. The first democratically-elected female head of state in Africa, she led the country through reconciliation, the Ebola crisis, and more.

Talking Tech: Kara Swisher (right), Editor-at-Large of Recode and host of the “Recode Decode” podcast, discusses surveillance, AI ethics, and how to regulate technology with Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter during a JFK Jr. Forum event recorded for a special podcast.

Reporter’s Role: Brooke Baldwin (right), host of CNN’s Newsroom, talks about her career during a Future of Foreign Affairs is Female seminar. Baldwin has been recognized for the depth of her reporting and coverage. Also pictured is Tara Tyrell, Project Coordinator for the Homeland Security Project.

Current and Future Leaders: Belfer Center Senior Fellow and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice (front, center) stands with Thomas R. Pickering and Charles B. Rangel Foreign Affairs Fellows from Harvard Kennedy School and other area universities following a seminar Rice led on government careers.

Policy and Purpose: Former U.S. Senator Robert (Bob) Corker, who represented Tennessee 2007-2019, speaks during a Belfer Center Board Lunch titled “Reflections on a Life of Leadership,” hosted by Center Director Ash Carter (right).

Corker chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2015 to 2019.

Inspiring Leadership: Lindiwe Mazibuko, the first black woman in South African history to be elected Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, discusses “‘We Don’t Need Another Hero’: The Future of Public Leadership in Africa.” Mazibuko is a Fisher Family Fellow for 2019 with the Future of Diplomacy Project.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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New at the Belfer Center

Center Expands Focus on Economic Diplomacy and Its Global Impacts

Robert Belfer (middle right) joins Nicholas Burns (seated to his right) and Aditi Kumar (front left) in a meeting to discuss the strategic focus of the Economic Diplomacy Initiative.

S

eventy-two years ago the Marshall Plan, widely hailed as a masterpiece of American post-war statecraft, dispatched aid worth nearly 5 percent of U.S. GDP to reinvigorate Western Europe’s war-ravaged economy and fend off Soviet encroachment.

“It is logical,” Secretary of State George Marshall declared in a famous 1947 commencement speech at Harvard laying out the plan’s vision, that America “assist in the return of normal economic health in the world, without which there can be no political stability and no assured peace.” On this foundation of economic health, the Western powers built the political, military, and economic alliances that won the Cold War. Today, nations are relying on various forms of economic statecraft to achieve geopolitical objectives—from China’s expansive overseas infrastructure investment through the Belt and Road Initiative, to American sanctions policy in Iran, to the global race for dominance in critical technology sectors. This spring, the Belfer Center, in partnership with the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, launched an initiative to explore these and other tools of economic statecraft, their impact on international relations, and implications for global leaders.

The Economic Diplomacy Initiative, advised

by Faculty Co-Chairs Professor Nicholas Burns and Professor Lawrence H. Summers and led by

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Center Executive Director Aditi Kumar, kicked off this semester with a conversation with Kai-Fu Lee, a leading technologist and investor in Chinese high-tech companies.

How can and should policymakers deploy economic tools to promote geopolitical interests?

The Initiative aims to examine three facets of economic statecraft. First, as economic power and responsibility shift to a broader group of states, how will policymakers set a clear vision for the international economic order to facilitate multinational commerce? Second, how can and should policymakers deploy economic tools—trade, investment, sanctions, aid, and other policies—to promote geopolitical interests? Third, in an era of unprecedented global competition, how can policymakers support domestic competitiveness and innovation in critical sectors?

In the spirit of the Center’s mission to prepare future generations Newsletter | Summer 2019

of leaders, the initiative is driven by Harvard Kennedy School students with an interest in exploring the intersection of economic and international affairs. In addition to facultysupervised research, students are planning a policy conference and developing an immersive training program on economic diplomacy, both to be rolled out this fall.

Kai-Fu Lee, founding President of Google China and Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures, talks with students and faculty about his new book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, at a Center seminar organized by the Economic Diplomacy Initiative.

International Council Members Join in Lively Discussions of Critical Global Issues

E

ach spring, members of the Belfer Center’s International Council—an advisory board—convene for a day of off-the-record briefings and conversations on pressing policy challenges. At this year’s meeting, Council members enjoyed break-out sessions with Center experts, as well as opportunities to engage with current Harvard Kennedy School students.

In a spirited discussion on “Right-Sizing America’s Role in a Dangerous World,” Harvard Kennedy School Professor Stephen Walt and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Paula Dobriansky shared sometimes divergent views of what America’s role is and should be. And they kept the Council members engaged with their good-natured repartee and responses to the members’ thought-provoking questions and comments.

The Walt-Dobriansky session was one of nearly a dozen interactive panel discussions with Center scholars and experts during the two-day gathering of the Council in early May. Other equally dynamic sessions elicited debate and discussion on diplomacy, Mohammed bin Salman, grand strategy in Asia, cyber & AI, dilemmas of energy abundance, and the 2020 field of presidential candidates.

National Intelligence Director Dan Coats joined Center Director Ash Carter in opening the annual meeting with a conversation on U.S. intelligence and security.

National Intelligence Director Dan Coats (right) speaks at the opening session of the Belfer Center’s annual International Council meeting. Center Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter introduced Coats.

Belfer Center International Council members Laurence Belfer (left) and Robert Belfer, listen to a panel discussion with Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Graham Allison, and Fran Townsend.

Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs Stephen Walt comments on “Right-Sizing America’s Role in a Dangerous World” in a discussion with Senior Fellow and former Ambassador Paula Dobriansky.

Karen Harris chats with International Council member Kay Kapoor during a break between sessions at the International Council meeting.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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Global Relations

Scholars Examine Current Choices and Challenges Through the Lens of History

by Justin Winokur

I

n early May, 70 scholars and practitioners gathered for the Applied History Network Meeting at Harvard Kennedy School, hosted by the Belfer Center’s Applied History Project, Stanford’s Hoover Institution, and the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation.

The meeting brought together leading historians, political scientists, economists, and policymakers from more than 10 major institutions across the U.S. and Europe to examine key issues in international affairs through the lens of Applied History: the explicit attempt to illuminate current choices and challenges by analyzing the historical record, particularly precedents and analogues.

The Network Meeting highlighted applied history’s usefulness for grappling with difficult problems across multiple regions and subjects.

Thirty panelists and chairs presented at seven sessions, covering China, Russia, the Middle East, economics, World War I, decisionmaking, and grand strategy. Discussion spanned such topics as the history of election meddling, patterns in return on capital since the 14th century, trends in Chinese regime

Kori Schake (left), Deputy Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, comments during a discussion on how learning from World War I can help prevent World War III.

stability, and methods for digitizing and analyzing millions of historical documents.

The meeting also showcased the field’s bright future: of the 30 speakers, 13 were emerging scholars representing a talented new generation of applied historians.

More than simply demonstrating the practice of applying history to current choices and challenges, participants also explored actionable ways to improve the use of history in government—and avoid its abuse. Belfer Center

Walton to Edit History of Espionage and Intelligence Calder Walton, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program and Assistant Director of the Applied History Project, has been named general editor of The Cambridge History of Espionage and Intelligence, to be published by Cambridge University Press in 2022.

The three-volume work will document for the first time the extensive record of how under-

tapestry of history” and answer the question,

cover information-gathering has been used and

“What difference can we say intelligence has

misused in conflicts from the ancient world

made to statecraft and warfare?”

through the cyberwarfare of the present.

He hopes the work will help make HKS into a In an interview with the Harvard Gazette earlier

world-leading center for the study of intelligence

this year, Walton said the aim of the completed

history and help us understand—through the lens

project is to “look at this whole enormous

of history—what’s going on today.

“The dominant mental methodology of real policymakers is historical reasoning.”

–Ash Carter

Director and former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter led a brainstorming session on strategies for institutionalizing historical learning, moderated by Harvard Kennedy School’s Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and Applied History Project Co-Director Graham Allison. Participants considered various types of advisory committees, checklists, and briefing papers that could help decision-makers learn from history efficiently and effectively.

Former World Bank president Robert Zoellick furthered this conversation as chair of the panel on Applied History in Government.

A milestone for applied history, the Network Meeting demonstrated the power of harnessing the historical record to understand current issues, as well as the appetite of scholars and practitioners alike for a deeper connection between history and policy.

As Carter put it: “The dominant mental methodology of real policymakers is historical reasoning.”

For more on the Applied History Project, visit

belfercenter.org/appliedhistory

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Newsletter | Summer 2019

KRISTINN INGVARSSON

The Elbe Group of U.S. and Russian former military and intelligence officers gather in Iceland in March for their annual meeting. Here, they are meeting with their Icelandic hosts at Höfði, the Reykjavik house where President Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev held talks in 1986, resulting in the INF Treaty.

Elbe Group Provides Blueprint for Improved U.S.-Russia Relations D

uring their tenth annual meeting in Reykjavík in March, the U.S.-Russian Elbe Group of retired senior military and intelligence officials discussed a range of issues and agreed on specific recommendations to help improve U.S.-Russian bilateral relations. The group, which maintains one of the few channels of communications currently open between the two countries, issued a joint statement that recommends specific actions by their respective governments that will increase dialogue across the spectrum of national security establishments, including military, intelligence, diplomatic, and other relevant organizations.

The Group agreed that as the two most powerful nuclear states, the U.S. and Russia bear a special responsibility to negotiate and abide by agreements that ensure strategic stability. Both sides expressed concern that nuclear weapons treaties are being ignored, eliminated, or are at risk of expiring.

Changes in the existing system of strategic stability have accelerated, they agreed, further undermining a mutual sense of security. In addition, regional confrontation has increased, use of military forces has grown, nuclear capabilities are being modernized, and the development of military and dual use non-nuclear technologies is expanding.

The Elbe Group members agreed to urge their respective governments to take a number of specific actions. Following are a few of their joint recommendations.

Strategic stability—Issue instructions to resume

joint discussions and cooperation on combat-

contacts and interaction between the national

ing cyber criminals and use of the Internet by

security and military establishments.

Islamic extremists.

Stability in the Baltic and Black Sea region—

Countering terrorism in Syria, Near and Middle

Significantly reduce the activity of operational

East—Create a broad international antiterrorist

and combat training of the armed forces of

coalition in the Middle East region. Deconflict

NATO and Russia near the border between

operations against ISIS in Syria as a basis for

Russia and the NATO countries. Resume the

broader efforts to combat terrorism. To prevent

practice of the parties to invite military observ-

the revival of ISIS, the military-to-military and

ers to maneuvers and exercises of the armed

special services’ cooperation between the two

forces of NATO and Russia.

countries should be resumed.

“The U.S. and Russia bear a special responsibility to negotiate and abide by agreements that ensure strategic stability.”

INF Treaty—Preserve the fundamental provisions of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) for the future.

START 3—Immediately start negotiations on the extension of the Russian-American START-3 treaty.

Cyber—Mutually agree to cease hostile use of the

On the Arctic—Resume the practice of working meetings between the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Armed Forces to discuss cooperation in the Arctic zone.

The Elbe Group members said in their statement that they are convinced that the search for mutual interests and an understanding of intentions and actions of the two countries should be key components in contemporary relations between Russia and the United States.

With that in mind, the Elbe Group intends “to promote in myriad ways the expansion of the dialogue between the various structures of civil society, academic and business circles, the expert community, and various power structures, including the expansion of dialogue in interCongressional/Parliamentary relations.”

Internet in the social and political spheres; begin For the full statement from the Elbe Group, visit

belfercenter.org/ElbeStatement Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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MARTHA STEWART

Eric Rosenbach (left), Belfer Center Co-Director, moderates a JFK Jr. Forum event with former ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan, former U.S. Ambassador to ROK Kathleen Stephens, and former U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Vincent Brooks.

First Summit Grapples with Changes in Korean Security Landscape

by Dong-hyeon Kim

T

he Belfer Center’s Korea Project convened the inaugural Harvard Korean Security Summit at Harvard Kennedy School in early April. The Summit featured a prominent gathering of Korean security scholars and practitioners and increased attention to the field of Korean security studies within the Harvard community. Built on the vision of the late Ambassador Stephen Bosworth, who first launched Korean security initiatives at the Belfer Center, the event reflected the two traditions that drive the Belfer Center’s work: bringing together leading scholars and senior practitioners to jointly diagnose policy puzzles; and mentoring the next generation of scholars and practitioners.

The Summit, organized by Korea Project Director John Park and his team and supported by the Korea Foundation, took place during a critical inflection point in U.S.-North Korea relations. In the aftermath of President Trump and Chairman Kim’s failed summit in Hanoi, the panelists grappled with a changed security landscape on the Korean Peninsula and debated the way ahead. The Summit opened with a JFK Jr. Forum event focused on the key question, “What is the Path Forward in Negotiating with a Nuclear North Korea?” Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach moderated the event with three panelists: former ROK Foreign Minister Yoon Young-kwan, former U.S. Ambassador to ROK Kathleen Stephens, and former U.S. Forces Korea Commander General Vincent Brooks.

Offering advice directly to Chairman Kim, General Brooks said, “In pursuing nuclear weapons and moving Korean Peninsula issues to the

18

center of the international stage, you have put at risk everything you have created.” When asked her thoughts on the Hanoi Summit, Ambassador Stephens said, “Chairman Kim probably went into the summit a little over-confident. It was a big deal for him to be the first DPRK leader to meet a sitting American president.”

The full-day conference kicked off with the “ROK Perspective on U.S.-North Korea Relations.” In his remarks, Foreign Minister Yoon argued that U.S. pressure alone would be insufficient to dismantle the DPRK’s nuclear program and underscored the importance of improving the political relationship with North Korea with concrete actions like establishing a liaison office or declaring the end of the Korean War. Additional panels focused on questions about the implications of security changes on the Korean Peninsula for the core countries. In a panel led by Ambassador Park In-kook, Patricia Kim, senior policy expert with the U.S. Institute of Peace, observed that Beijing’s primary national interests are to: preserve the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly over power at home; continue economic growth; and expand global influence, becoming a world-class power by 2049. Professor John Delury of Seoul’s Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies said Chairman Kim is breaking with his father’s model, and following another model—the developmental dictator—which has far-reaching implications for North Korea and the region.

Newsletter | Summer 2019

“Chairman Kim is breaking with his father’s model, and following another model… which has far-reaching implications for North Korea and the region.”

– John Delury

USIP Senior Policy Expert Patricia Kim discusses China’s role with CFR Senior Fellow for Korean Studies Scott Snyder.

Korea Project Director John Park shares insights along with Prof.

Kyung-Ae Park (right) of the University of British Columbia and Prof. Kim Sung-han (left) of Korea University.

MARTHA STEWART

General Hao Yeli (second from left) and colleagues from the China working group discuss responses during the fictitious cyber scenario of a third party attack on critical infrastructure.

U.S.-China Cybersecurity Group Explores Mutual Interests, Goals

by Julia Voo

MARTHA STEWART

n April, the China Institute for International Strategic Studies (CIISS) joined the Belfer Center’s Cyber Project in hosting their second working group meeting, a Track II dialogue to facilitate discussions between the U.S. and China on the risks of cyber conflict. The meeting, which included representatives from both countries’ tech sectors, explored existing and new tools for mitigating these risks and looking into possible areas for collaboration.

“The U.S. and China have a tremendous amount of power in cyber, and without appropriate dialogue there is a heightened chance for inadvertent conflict,” said Belfer Center Director Ash Carter.

Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director of the Belfer Center, said, “We need to stop talking past each other, have frank and constructive conversations, and start working on mutual interests. We’re uniquely placed at the Belfer Center to convene a diverse group of stakeholders on both sides

Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach with Chinese People’s Liberation Army General (ret.) Hao Yeli, Senior Advisor to the China Institute for International Strategic Studies.

MARTHA STEWART

I

Julia Voo (right), Research Director with the China Cyber Policy Initiative, talks with Gao Yang from the China Institute for International Strategic Studies.

to tackle one of the most difficult international issues today.”

The working group in Cambridge brought together 20 former government and military officials and tech, business, and academic professionals to discuss current issues in the bilateral cyber relationship. Both sides worked through a fictitious

“We need to stop talking past each other, have frank and constructive conversations, and start working on mutual interests.”

– Eric Rosenbach Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

cyber scenario to discuss what their respective governments and companies would do in the face of a third party cyber attack on critical infrastructure.

The working group also discussed AI, IP theft, supply chain security and Huawei, arms control frameworks, and controlling the spread of malware over the dark web. The next working group will take place in August in Shanghai, followed by a November working group in Cambridge.

Ahead of the August meeting, the team, led by the project’s Research Director Julia Voo, will begin designing a joint framework for stability between the U.S. and China in cyberspace, looking specifically at controlling the spread of malware as an area of shared concern and possible collaboration.

This Track II dialogue was supported by a grant from the Harvard Global Institute (HGI) and the Harvard President’s Office.

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Featured Fellows and Students

Project on Managing the Atom / International Security Program

International Security Program

Katlyn Turner

Anina Schwarzenbach

by Hannah Ebanks

by Christian Gibbons

A

W

Spotlighting Nuclear Waste and Emerging Technologies s a millennial, Katlyn Turner grew up hearing about big issues like the conflict in Iraq, universal healthcare, and climate change.

She had a desire to solve an issue with a similar magnitude, and in college a professor introduced her to nuclear energy. Now, Turner is studying nuclear waste and emerging technologies in the nuclear energy cycle as a joint research fellow with the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program.

A common misconception about nuclear energy is that it’s “clean,” since it does not produce a lot of carbon dioxide, Turner said, but all alternative energy sources have pros and cons and an environmental impact. “Within the policy community there’s the misconception that the waste issue isn’t important; that the important issues are only proliferation or nuclear security or nuclear accidents,” Turner said. “But actually, the issue of waste, if it’s not handled, is a security issue.”

Turner compared the lack of public “Whenever I’m care surrounding nuclear waste to clitrying to explain an mate change, since it is modeled and legislated on a million-year scale and hard issue like nuclear for people to grasp. One of her projects is energy, it’s from the considering what impact nuclear waste perspective of trying will have in the near future.

“This literally affects all of us, but to bring people in there’s a small percentage of people who and be inclusive.” study it,” Turner said. “So whenever I’m trying to explain an issue like nuclear energy, it’s from the perspective of trying to bring people in and be inclusive,” she added.

Turner, who is from the small town of Granger, Indiana, is aware that she is fortunate to have had access to an education that many people do not have. With that mindset, she tries to take advantage of her time as a fellow at the Belfer Center. She attends as many educational events as possible at the Kennedy School, especially to hear major presentations and discussions in the JFK Jr. Forum. In her free time, she takes advantage of activities unique to Boston, like attending Red Sox games or exploring the city’s colonial history.

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Linking Discrimination, State Institutions & Violent Extremism hat causes individuals to become radicalized, and to perpetrate acts of violence against other people and countries? In the context of the Easter attacks in Sri Lanka and other recent acts of violent extremism, understanding the causes of this phenomenon may be key to understanding how to counter it.

Anina Schwarzenbach is a postdoctoral “Experiences of fellow studying just that at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. Her research with the discrimination, International Security Program focuses on the if recurrent, effectiveness of different anti-extremism stratemight affect the gies, as well as how perceptions of the legitimacy of state institutions can help or hinder those efforts. levels of political Born and educated in Switzerland, she previolence.” viously worked for the government in Bern. She then went on to pursue her PhD at the Max Planck Institute for Foreign Criminal Law in Germany. Eventually, she says, she would like to work in academia—which is why she decided to continue her research at Harvard.

“The work I do uses a lot of methods that are used in sociology, but it’s very interdisciplinary,” says Schwarzenbach, who decided to shift from a legal to a more sociological perspective mid-career. “At Harvard, you can connect so many dots, and learn from so many different fields as well.

That has been a source of inspiration for my own research endeavors.”

Through her research, she has tried to understand the potential links between discrimination, state legitimacy, and violent extremism. Her work in multi-ethnic cities in Europe, including France and Germany, has allowed her to study the effects of disaffection and distrust in promoting extremist views.

“One hypothesis is that experiences of discrimination by state institutions, such as the police, negatively affect the public’s understanding of the government—and consequently of society at large,” Schwarzenbach says. “These experiences of discrimination, especially if recurrent, delegitimize governments in the eyes of the public and might affect the levels of political violence in a society, too.” She is committed to shedding light on this relationship and hopes her findings will prove useful to policymakers.

Newsletter | Summer 2019

Dealing with Disinformation: Lessons from Taiwan and Korea With a research grant from the Belfer Center, three Harvard Kennedy School students— Casey Corcoran, Bo Julie Crowley, and Raina Davis—traveled to Taiwan and South Korea in January to conduct research on disinformation campaigns that have long been part of East Asian politics. They describe their goals, methods, and takeaways in a forthcoming report, “Disinformation Threat Watch: The Disinformation Landscape in East Asia and Implications for U.S. Policy.”

Why did you select East Asia for conducting election disinformation research?

Bo Julie Crowley (MPP1), Casey Corcoran (MPP1/JD), and Raina Davis (MPP1) present their new report “Disinformation Threat Watch: The Disinformation Landscape in East Asia and Implications for US Policy” during a Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P) seminar.

• Compel Private Sector Action: Technology

We chose to study disinformation (intended false

the bottom” where the use of automated software

information) in East Asia to better understand the

to sway public opinion becomes more widespread.

companies must do more to combat disinfor-

global landscape of disinformation and gather les-

Additionally, the weaponization of “fake news” by

mation on their platforms. Content platforms

sons learned for the U.S. While the 2016 election

domestic politicians threatens civil liberties and

can undertake specific actions to achieve

highlighted the impact of disinformation on U.S.

undermines trust in public institutions.

this, such as:

politics, disinformation is a global challenge and has a long legacy in Taiwanese and South Korean politics. As democracies, Taiwan and South Korea

From your research, what recommendations did you take away for U.S. elections?

share the challenge of combating disinformation while preserving civil liberties.

• Incorporate third party apps that label disinformation; • Verify citizenship requirements for all

• Speak Out Early and Often: Government

political ad purchases;

leaders should develop an interagency

How did you go about gathering the information you needed?

response plan to address disinformation as early and forcefully as possible.

• Establish direct channels with election officials globally to enhance rapid response capabilities;

We interviewed more than 50 government

• Increase Transparency: Intelligence agencies

officials, journalists, and civil society members to

should release open source data to explain

develop our case studies.

how they attributed content to foreign actors.

This will improve independent research and

Taiwan: Taiwan faces a systematic disinformation

public trust in the government’s conclusion.

• Create operating standards to remove or de-emphasize disinformation; • Provide open APIs to researchers and government officials.

campaign by the People’s Republic of China aimed at influencing election outcomes and public opin-

• Acknowledge Capability Gaps and Support

ion to advance Chinese interests. Increasing social

Civil Solutions: Civil society is better-posi-

and political polarization, as well as a sensational

tioned to respond to some kinds of disinfor-

media climate, have amplified the spread and

mation without infringing on civil liberties.

impact of disinformation. Taiwanese civil society

Government should support civil society

In the long term, government must address the

has developed a range of creative solutions to

groups with grants to enable their work while

root of the problem: The most effective disinfor-

combat disinformation, but individual organiza-

maintaining their independence.

mation plays on real world fears or insecurities.

tions struggle to reach a broad audience and scale their limited resources.

What is the main lesson you learned for the U.S. and other governments?

Leaders need to create dialogues and policies • Engage in Intelligence Sharing: The United

that address the legitimate concerns and

States should increase cooperation with

grievances of citizens and promote a proactive

Republic of Korea: Disinformation has not defin-

partners and allies to help each other manage

message to counteract malicious ones.

itively influenced the outcome of South Korean

domestic information landscapes.

elections, but scandals that implicate political aides and intelligence officials may instigate a “race to Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

21

Hot off the Presses Inside the Five-Sided Box: Lessons from a Lifetime of Leadership in the Pentagon

Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump

By Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor

By Ash Carter, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Former Secretary, Department of Defense

Oxford University Press, Forthcoming December 2019

Penguin/Random House, June 2019

The Pentagon is the headquarters of the single largest institution in America: the Department of Defense. Yet to most Americans, the dealings of the D.O.D. are a mystery, and the Pentagon nothing more than an opaque five-sided box that they regard with a mixture of awe and suspicion.

In this new book, former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter demystifies the Pentagon and sheds light on all that happens inside one of the nation’s most iconic, and most closely guarded, buildings. Drawn from Carter’s thirty-six years of leadership experience in the D.O.D., this is the essential book for understanding the challenge of defending America in a dangerous world—and imparting a trove of incisive lessons that can guide leaders in any complex organization.

“Everyone knows Ash Carter is one of America’s most respected leaders, but I know firsthand that he is also one of the great technologists of our time.

He adeptly used both gifts to make the Pentagon as innovative as possible. This book tells us how he did it, and what he thinks needs to happen in the future.”

—Eric Schmidt, Technical Advisor, Alphabet Inc.

In Do Morals Matter?, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. provides a concise yet penetrating analysis of the role of ethics in U.S. foreign policy during the American era after 1945. Nye works through each presidency from Truman to Trump and scores their foreign policy on three ethical dimensions of their intentions, the means they used, and the consequences of their decisions. Alongside this, he also evaluates their leadership qualities, elaborating on which approaches work and which ones do not. Regardless of a president’s policy preferences, Nye shows that each one was not constrained by the structure of the system and actually had choices. He further notes the important ethical consequences of non-actions, such as Truman’s willingness to accept stalemate in Korea rather than use nuclear weapons.

Since we so often apply moral reasoning to foreign policy, Nye suggests how to do it better. Most importantly, presidents need to factor in both the political context and the availability of resources when deciding how to implement an ethical policy.

Titans of the Climate: Explaining Policy Process in the United States and China The Age of Living Machines: How Biology Will Build the Next Technology Revolution

By Susan Hockfield, Member of the Board, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

By Kelly Sims Gallagher, Member of the Board, Belfer Center, and Xiaowei Xuan, former Research Fellow, Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group MIT Press, February 2019

The world’s population is projected to rise to well over 9.5 billion by 2050, and we are currently faced with the consequences of producing the energy that fuels, heats, and cools us. With temperatures and sea levels rising, and large portions of the globe plagued with drought, famine, and drug-resistant diseases, we need new technologies to tackle these problems.

The Age of Living Machines describes some of the most exciting new developments and the scientists and engineers who helped create them. Virus-built batteries. Protein-based water filters. Cancer-detecting nanoparticles. Mind-reading bionic limbs. Computer-engineered crops.

In Titans of the Climate, Kelly Sims Gallagher and Xiaowei Xuan examine how the planet’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters develop and implement climate policy.

Gallagher, a former U.S. climate policymaker, and Xuan, a member of a Chinese policy think tank, describe the specific drivers—political, economic, and social—of climate policies in both countries and map the differences between policy outcomes. They characterize the U.S. approach as “deliberative incrementalism;” the Chinese, meanwhile, engage in “strategic pragmatism.” Comparing the policy processes of the two countries, Gallagher and Xuan make the case that if each country understands more about the other’s goals and constraints, climate policy cooperation is more likely to succeed.

“Entertaining and prescient....Hockfield demonstrates how nature’s molecular riches may be leveraged to provide potential solutions to some of humanity’s existential challenges.”

— Adrian Woolfson, Science

“An insightful analysis of climate change efforts in the United States and China: domestically determined, internationally collaborative, globally decisive.”

—Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

W.W. Norton, May 2019

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

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Newsletter | Summer 2019

News & Impact IN D.C.

BEFORE CONGRESS

The Belfer Center’s National Security Fellows

In April, Project on Managing the Atom’s Matthew

traveled to Washington, D.C. in early May for

Bunn, Nickolas Roth, and William H. Tobey

meetings at the White House, State Department,

released a policy brief calling on Congress to

Pentagon, and other agencies to present

increase funding for programs that reduce the

takeaways from their research. They met with

dangers of nuclear theft and terrorism. Their brief

the Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick M.

is titled “Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials

Shanahan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Joseph

Worldwide: Expanded Funding Needed for a More

Dunford, Secretary of the Air Force Heather

Ambitious Approach.”

Vol. 43 No. 4 Spring 2019

Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order John J. Mearsheimer

Wilson, and other top leaders.

The liberal international order led by the United States was destined to collapse. Liberal excesses provoked a powerful nationalist backlash. In the emerging multipolar world, a realist order will manage the world economy, and Chinese-led and U.S.-led bounded orders will help the two great powers prosecute their security competition.

A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept Is Misguided Charles L. Glaser Maintaining the liberal international order is central in the debate over U.S. security and foreign policy. Much of what the liberal order purports to explain, however, can be explained by other theories. Analyzing issues through a grand-strategic lens would provide broader options for achieving U.S. interests.

Former National Security Fellow James McConville has been nominated by the White House to become the next Army Chief of Staff.

On May 13, the Technology and Public Purpose

Proliferation and the Logic of the Nuclear Market

Project (TAPP) and New America's Public Interest

Eliza Gheorghe

Tech Teams co-hosted the Data Privacy + Design Workshop in Washington DC. The event brought

At a hearing in March on “China’s Challenges

together UX/UI designers, engineers, privacy

to U.S. Commerce,” Eric Rosenbach testified

experts from civil society organizations, research-

before the Senate Committee on Commerce,

ers, and congressional staff. TAPP is also working

Science and Transportation about China’s move

on a forthcoming report that will examine the

into the Information Age. Without a U.S. national

landscape of science and technology (S&T)

strategy, he said, our country “risks ceding its

expertise and resources available to Congress.

leadership role in future economic, military, and political landscapes.”

AWARDS

What explains the scale and speed of nuclear proliferation? One key factor is the level of competition among suppliers in the market for nuclear materials and technologies. When suppliers form a cartel, fewer countries can acquire what they need for nuclear weapons program. If great power competition intensifies, suppliers will find it harder to cooperate and nuclear proliferation could accelerate.

Buying Allies: Payment Practices in Multilateral Military Coalition-Building Marina E. Henke

Nicholas Burns and Douglas Lute testified Belfer Center Director and former Secretary of

before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in

Defense Ash Carter and Science, Technology,

March about NATO and the vital importance

and Public Policy Co-Director and former Science

of American leadership in the alliance. On the

Advisor to the President John P. Holdren have

seventieth anniversary of NATO, Burns and

been selected by the government of Japan to

Lute discussed their report, NATO at Seventy:

receive the prestigious Order of the Rising Sun

An Alliance in Crisis, at the Munich Security

awards for their notable contributions to strength-

Conference and at several other major events.

ening Japan-U.S. relations in the fields of security/ defense and science/technology, respectively.

SHAPING PUBLIC OPINION

Carter will receive the Grand Cordon of the Order of

Through panel discussions, presentations, and

the Rising Sun and Holdren the Order of the Rising

interviews about her new book, How We Win, Senior

Sun, Gold and Silver Star. They are recognized

Fellow Farah Pandith continues to raise awareness

for their work with Japan during the Obama

of why she believes young people become extrem-

administration.

ists and how to prevent that conversion.

Matthew Meselson, Belfer Center Board member

Amanda Sloat, fellow with the Project on Europe

and Harvard Professor, has received the $50,000

and Transatlantic Relations, has helped keep the

Future of Life Award for his role in the 1972 biological

world informed on Brexit issues and U.S.-Europe

Weapons Convention, an international treaty that

relations through her insightful commentary in

affirmed the existing ban on the use of biological

print and broadcast media.

Many states have been paid to join multilateral military coalitions. These payments are largely covered by “pivotal states”—those that care the most about an operation’s success—and take the form of deployment subsidies and political side deals to attract critical contributors to the mission.

Power and Profit at Sea: The Rise of the West in the Making of the International System J.C. Sharman Beginning in the 1400s, Europeans built the global international system by using naval force to achieve commercial success. Europeans had a technical capacity and a cultural inclination to control the seas that Eastern empires lacked.

The International Security journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@harvard.edu.

Follow us on Twitter @journal_is

weapons and also banned production, stockpiling, Compiled by International Security staff

and offensive research into biological weapons.

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

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The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Ash Carter, Director Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director Aditi Kumar, Executive Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, Massachusetts www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter Summer 2019 EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications sharon_wilke@hks.harvard.edu DESIGNER: Andrew Facini Publishing Manager andrew_facini@hks.harvard.edu PHOTOGRAPHER: Bennett Craig Multimedia Producer bennett_craig@hks.harvard.edu

Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy josh_burek@hks.harvard.edu

The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about

The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by Jordan D’Amato, Hannah Ebanks, Christian Gibbons, John P. Holdren, Rex Horner, Dong-Hyeon Kim, Susan Lynch, John Park, and Cristine Russell.

Cover image of Earth and pages 4-5 satellite imagery courtesy NASA. All other photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe

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Farewell to Jean Woodward

Congratulations

A

fter 32 years at Harvard Kennedy School, Jean Woodward will retire at the end of June.

Starting at Harvard Kennedy School in the spring of 1987, Woodward’s first position was with Executive Education’s National Security Program as a program coordinator and as a writing consultant/coordinator for the National Security Fellows. She worked on the inaugural, historic Executive Program for Soviet Officers in 1991, which brought Soviet general and flag officers to Harvard Kennedy School to study democracy-building.

Woodward has worked with every group of Fellows since the class of 1987 and has administered the Program for 20 years, continuing in that position when the Program joined the Belfer Center last year. She maintains close relationships with the more than 600 NSF alumni and has been privileged, she says, to watch their careers flourish. “These outstanding officers and intelligence community officials,” she notes, “have gone on to be chiefs of services or agencies, general and flag officers, and leaders of non-profit organizations—devoting their lives to public service.”

@BelferCenter

Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas Elemendorf announced in May the promotion of the Belfer Center’s Juliette Kayyem to Senior Lecturer.

Through her teaching, government service, journalism, and private sector work, Kayyem is a national leader in America’s homeland security efforts.

— Joseph Aldy, a Belfer Center affiliate who works actively with the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, has been appointed Professor of the Practice of Public Policy at the Kennedy School.

— Jean Woodward, Assistant Director of the National Security Fellows Program, with former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper following a National Security Fellows Executive Program he taught at the Kennedy School in August 2018.

She has mentored hundreds of other students, fellows, and young people during her time at Harvard.

Prior to Harvard, Woodward held positions in electoral field organization, curriculum publishing, and writing and administration in the field of popular music and studio recording. A native Bostonian, she studied anthropology and communications at Syracuse University, both of which she employed in her career working with the military.

Associate Professor of Public Policy Dara Kay Cohen, who works with the Center’s International Security Program, received the Emerging Scholar Award from the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association.

Cohen’s research focuses on civil war and the dynamics of violence, and gender and conflict.

— Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow Sébastien Philippe has been selected to participate in the 69th Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, scheduled for late June. Philippe conducts research at the intersection of measurement systems and cryptography, with applications to nuclear arms control verification.

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Newsletter | Summer 2019

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