Belfer Center Annual Report 2022

Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International A airs

Annual Report 2022

The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International A airs Annual Report 2022

From the Director

e last few months of 2022 were a transition time for the Belfer Center community. With the sudden death of Ash Carter in October, we were shaken by his loss and his absence is felt throughout the Center. But as I write below, Ash’s legacy will live in many ways as we continue working toward our mission.

I invite you now to share my optimistic outlook as we turn the rst page of the new calendar year. We demonstrated remarkable resilience as we adjusted to two challenging years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Operations have found a new normal, in-person events have resumed, and students are back on campus. Yet, this year we were also called upon by world events.

As the world witnessed the Russian invasion of Ukraine – the rst unprovoked act of aggression by a major power in Europe since 1939 – the Belfer Center responded by redoubling our e orts. With remarkable speed, our faculty, fellows, and sta harnessed our expertise to remind the world what the war puts at stake:

• Ash Carter hosted a live, remote Harvard Kennedy School Forum with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelinsky to discuss leadership in crisis

• e Project on Managing the Atom (MTA), the Applied History Project, and the Intelligence Project convened a full-day conference discussing the implications of the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis - the single

September 27, 2022: Belfer Center Director Ash Carter and Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas Elmendorf, bottom left, listen to a student question for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky during a remote conversation about leadership in the JFK Jr. Forum.

most dangerous event of the nuclear age - and its relevance for the war in Ukraine and future crises and con ict.

• Belfer Center nuclear experts gave numerous interviews on Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine along with real-time analysis regarding the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine in the midst of ghting.

• Russia Matters provided ongoing analysis of the war in Ukraine and the rst-ever comprehensive e ort to take stock of attacks by the Ukrainian insurgency and identify trends in the manifestation of this strategy of irregular warfare.

As we found a way to meet the moment, impactful work across dozens of other critical research areas continued.

Convening Power

e Korea Project convened the third Harvard Korean Security Summit exploring how quickly various Korea-related functional issues play out with global implications. e project also conducted major policy engagement activities through Track 1.5 discussions.

We marked the 75th anniversary of the Central Intelligence Agency with a fullday conference hosted by the Intelligence Project exploring the agency’s evolution

and current activities to further the nation’s national security.

e Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) once again hosted its biennial Roy Award for Environmental Partnerships. is year honored ColdHubs, an innovative Nigerian venture that provides solar-powered cold storage for small farmers, saving more than 40% of their harvest.

Once again, the Center was proud to host many high-pro le leaders from government, including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta Mark Milley, Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Deputy Asstistant to the President and Coordinator for Indo-Paci c Kurt Campbell, along with

November 11, 2022: ColdHubs Limited Founder and CEO Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu (left) spoke on a panel, “Mobilizing Partnerships to Meet Global Climate and Sustainable Development Goals,” with Morgan Richmond (middle), and Romi Bhatia (right). The ColdHubs partnership won the 2022 Roy Award for Environmental Partnerships hosted by the Environment and Natural Resources Program.

many international guests that included British Ambassador to the U.S. Dame Karen Pierce, former Colombian President Iván Duque, former Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, and former Costa Rican Ambassador to UN Elayne Whyte

e Center’s convening power is also evident in the more than 150 research fellows who joined our programs and projects this year and enriched the Center with their diverse experiences and wide range of expertise. ey - and our resident and non-resident senior fellows - are an invaluable part of the Center community, adding value to discussions.

Advancing PolicyRelevant Knowledge

e Avoiding Great Power War Project released a four-part report, “ e Great Rivalry: China vs. the U.S. in the 21st Century,” documenting what has happened in the competition between China and the U.S. in the past twenty years in the technology, military, economic, and diplomatic arenas.

e Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP) published a series of papers on green Hydrogen and co-authored three policy briefs with the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP) on o shore wind for electricity generation, carbon capture, utilization, and storage for fossil-fueled power plants and certain industrial facilities, and a modernized electricity grid.

e Cyber Project published the long-awaited 2022 National Cyber Power Index (NCPI), a follow-up to the inaugural 2020 NCPI, which updates the rst-ever framework to understand and measure the cyber power of nation-states.

Several well-received books were authored this year by Belfer Center faculty and fellows, including Henry Lee and Dan Schrag’s Foundations for a Low-Carbon Energy System in China, Juliette Kayyem’s e Devil Never Sleeps, Bruce Schneier’s A Hacker’s Mind, Lori Garver’s Escaping Gravity, and Kevin Rudd’s Avoiding War

Preparing Future Generations of Leaders

With the ease of pandemic restrictions came the opportunity to resume experiential learning. e Middle East Initiative (MEI) took a delegation of 13 HKS students to the United Arab Emirates for “Leadership and Social Transformation in the Arab World.” e course deepened students’ understanding of the UAE’s e orts to diversify its economy, manage social transformations, and improve the quality of governance.

e Intelligence Study Group for students had record application numbers this year: more than 90 students applied for 30 spots. e highly competitive non-credit seminar saw students examine how intelligence enhances policy decision-making, where it fails, and the di erences between intelligence in liberal democracies and one-party states.

May 25, 2022: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta , Gen. Mark Milley, spoke with the National Security fellows about his career and the importance of civilian-military relations.

We rolled out a new Africa in Focus series of events to examine the many factors driving transitions and geostrategic relations in Africa.

Additionally, the Technology and Public Purpose Project (TAPP) organized a six-session study group that focused on the origin and promise of the Chips and Science Act, led by TAPP Fellow Doug Calidas, Chief of Sta to United States Senator Amy Klobuchar.

Commitment to Diversity, Inclusion, and Belonging

Every research and core sta team at the Belfer Center developed an action plan for achieving progress on diversity, inclusion, and belonging (DIB).

ese plans generated signi cant gains, including greater diversity in the Center’s hiring practices, speaker invitations, and fellowship applications.

We saw that commitment in action this year as we placed a greater focus on DIB into our work, including hosting

a Women in STEM series, a seminar on “ e Past, Present, and Future of Diversity, Inclusion, and Belonging in the American Intelligence Community,” and the now annual Share eMicinCyber event to spotlight Black voices and talent in cybersecurity. We also co-sponsored the Women in Power conference organized by HKS student in the spring.

March 31, 2022: Executive Director Natalie Colbert introduces the first Africa in Focus series workshop on Civil Society and Populism in Sudan and Ethiopia featuring Hala Al-Karib (not pictured, remote), Regional Director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa (SIHA), and Michael Woldemariam, Director of the African Studies Center at Boston University (background, right).

September 20, 2022: Maryum Saifee, Senior Advisor in the Secretary’s O ce of Diversity and Inclusion, U.S. Department of State, speaks on “A More Representative America at Home and Abroad” during a Future of Diplomacy Project seminar.

Secretary Carter’s Legacy

is fall, the Center was struck with the unexpected passing of our director, Secretary Ash Carter.

Ash was a member of the Belfer Center community for nearly 40 years. He joined in 1984, was named director in 1990 and then again in 2015, and he taught until his last day. e Center provided a home to build his intellectual base and collaborate with decision-makers and academics. Here, he developed his unique perspective and expertise and created solutions he applied during his government tours.

Summing up Ash Carter is impossible. His CV reads like a great American novel. A scholar-athlete was inducted into his high school Hall of Fame. He held degrees in physics and medieval history from Yale, was selected as a Rhodes Scholar, and earned an Oxford doctorate in theoretical physics. Ash had every major role at the Pentagon, rising to Secretary of Defense under President Obama. On ve separate occasions, he was awarded the Department of Defense’s highest civilian honor, the Medal for Distinguished Public Service. He authored 11 books.

At his core, Ash Carter was a professor. Ash took great pride in his cadre of students spanning four decades who were impacting the world. He was an extremely decent man who meant an enormous amount to many.

Ash’s story is a model of the Belfer Center demonstrating leadership with intellectual curiosity, intention, and kindness.

Unexpected news can bring heavy tasks and broken hearts, but I have steadfast con dence in the Center and our path ahead. Our community of faculty, sta , students, and fellows continually rises to challenges with resolve and expertise. So, while we feel the tremendous loss of Ash in our hallways and classrooms, our work to advance policy-relevant knowledge and train the next generation of leaders in science, technology, and international a airs continues.

Stepping in to take the helm of the Belfer Center is a privilege I do not take lightly. Natalie and I will continue to work with our community to continue building a mission-driven and diverse organization. I genuinely hope we all begin the new year with that renewed sense of value and purpose. As we mark our 50th anniversary in 2023, we will honor our past and celebrate all there is in store for the Belfer Center.

April 25, 2022: Ash Carter with his spring semester class.

1985: Professor Ash Carter helps a student after class.

Eric Rosenbach

Belfer Center Core Sta , 2022

LE AD ERSHIP DIRECTOR

Ash Carter (until October)

CO-DIRECTOR

Eric Rosenbach

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

Natalie Colbert (on leave, Jul–Dec)

Lauren Zabierek (acting, Aug–Dec)

FIN A NCE

SENIOR FINANCE DIRECTOR

Guy Keeley

FINANCIAL ASSOCIATE

Lovita Strain (until June)

Manyu Ng (since Sep)

OPER ATIONS

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS

Sarah Donahue

OPERATIONS COORDINATOR

Mackenzie Heather

COMMUNIC ATIONS

DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGY

Josh Burek (until June)

Sharon Wilke (acting, June-Nov)

Shannon Felton Spence (since Nov)

ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS

Sharon Wilke

MULTIMEDIA PRODUCER

Benn Craig

DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS MANAGER

Julie Balise (until May)

DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS COORDINATOR

Liz Hoveland (since Aug)

COMMUNICATIONS FELLOW

Ada Ezeokoli (since Sep)

COMMUNICATIONS INTERN

Liza Xiao (since Aug)

September 13, 2022: Eric Rosenbach greets fellows at the Belfer Center orientation.

Alums in Action

May 11, 2022: Bonnie Jenkins, a Belfer Center alum currently serving as the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State, speaks at the Managing the Atom 25th Anniversary conference.

Center-Wide Activities

Policy Discussions

The Belfer Center is dedicated to engaging the Harvard Kennedy School and the broader academic community with research and programming on topics ranging from innovations in technology, energy, cybersecurity, defense, diplomacy, and the environment. Throughout the year, the Center organizes and supports programming for students, faculty, fellows, sta , and the public.

Each semester, we host weekly meetings of the Belfer Board, known as the Belfer Board Lunch Series. Members and guests discuss cutting-edge research and developments in the field of science, technology, and international a airs. Speakers in 2022 have included Senator Amy Klobuchar, (D-MN); Lawrence Summers, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus, Harvard University; Stefanie Tomkins, Director, DARPA; Noubar Afeyan, Co-Founder, Moderna; Robert Playter, CEO, Boston Dynamics; and Dana Banks, Senior Director for Africa, NSC.

At the Center level, Belfer Fellow Syra Madad conducted a conference on pandemic and health emergency communication addressing shortfalls throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic and lessons learned. Madad also kicked o her event series, Women in STEM, and later expanded the series to be called Diversity in STEM, making space for

professionals and speakers of many diverse backgrounds and identities. These panels focused on an array of topics from healthcare, space exploration, and the intersection of science and the entertainment industry, to name a few. She tied the series together with honest conversations about identity in the vast field of STEM. We were honored to have Senior Fellows Tom Donilon and Shirley Jackson take part in center wide events in the fall that focused on mentoring the next generation of policy leaders.

Since spring 2022, Africa in Focus has hosted programming examining civil society-led movements, an evolving U.S-Africa strategy, and ever-changing geopolitical alliances arising from the continent. This year, coinciding with COP27 in Egypt, Africa in Focus engaged with the HKS community and members from across the world in discussing Africa’s role in the causes, consequences, and contribution of policy solutions for climate change. The series continues to create a forum for nuanced and critical analysis of processes and policies from the continent and its engagement with the international community and broader policy conversations at HKS.

Student Support and Programming

Mentoring the leaders of tomorrow is a core pillar of the Center’s mission. In ad-

dition to student fellowships, the Center provides students with the opportunity to serve as research assistants to Senior Fellows and Research Teams. The Center also provides research grants to support MPP students working on their capstone Policy Analysis Exercise (PAE). During the fall of 2022, the Center provided $20,000.00 across 12 PAE grants to allow students to develop a series of policy recommendations designed to solve strategic management or policy problems. Sponsored students are addressing a variety of issues, including scaling critical technology for the Department of Defense, working toward a Korean Peace Treaty, assessing USAID’s role in Ukraine and NATO’S military medical interoperability during an article 5 scenario, and safeguarding radiological materials and nuclear sites exposed to conflict.

In addition to individual student support, the Center consistently funds conferences, including the Women in Power Conference, the German-American Conference, and the Black Policy Conference, as well as student organizations such as Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development (W3D) and the Black Student Union. In the fall of 2022, W3D co-hosted the “Harvard Diversity Discussion” series that explored topics of race, culture, gender, and identity in open and honest conversations with the broader Harvard community. W3D also hosted a panel event on “Women in Blockchain” featuring female voices from diverse parts of the blockchain ecosystem such

as Sarah Hubbard, TAPP Fellow; Juliette Blake, Founder of Miss O Cool Girl NFTS; Caroline Fairchild, Editor in Chief of BFF; and Claire Rafson, Investor, ENIAC VC.

Over the semester we have worked closely with several student groups to support speakers and programming geared toward students and have engaged with Rangel and Pickering Fellows, as well as the Diplomacy PIC. For example, we co-hosted an event series on Haiti with the HKS Black Student Union.

Belfer Pathways Series

In Fall 2022, the Belfer Center kicked o the Pathways Event Series, which focuses on the career paths of the wide and diverse group of speakers that visit the Center. These events allow students to receive career insights and advice from some of the field’s most successful professionals. Speakers have included Richard Verma, former U.S. Ambassador to India; and Mary Elizabeth Taylor, former Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative A airs. The Pathways Series will continue into 2023, bringing together students at HKS who are interested in careers in diplomacy and international a airs.

Fellows

The Center welcomed a cohort of close to 250 fellows across Master’s, pre-and post-doctoral, and professional

fellowship programs. Several of the Center’s Research Team support fellows at the Center that are essential to the intellectual fabric and academic outputs of the Center. The Center each year also supports a cohort of student fellows who are paired with Research Teams and Faculty at the Center and take part in the intellectual fabric of Belfer. They also take part in programming related to career development and policy-relevant discussions.

Belfer Young Leaders Fellowship

The Belfer Center’s student fellowship programs help prepare a cohort of high-achieving HKS students for leadership positions in international a airs, national security, and technology arenas. The Belfer Young Leaders Fellowship continues to support student research and development at the nexus of science and international a airs. Each year, the fellowship awards tuition support to approximately ten incoming MPP/MPA students and twenty returning MPP/MPA students who demonstrate a commitment to pursuing public service after graduation. Student fellows work directly with a faculty mentor and Research Teams to contribute to the Center’s policy research. In addition to their research, student fellows participate in professional development workshops and discussions with faculty, alumni, and practitioners. This year’s sessions have included guests such as Belfer Senior Fellow Thomas Donilon, the Arctic Initiative’s Senior Fellow

Belfer Summer Research Assistants Internship Program

Following summer research programming from the summer of 2020 in response to the pandemic, we again hosted a cohort of Summer Research Interns in 2022. The program o ered select research opportunities to 20 current students and recent graduates. The interns partnered with the Center’s Research Teams for research and mentorship opportunities.

International Council

Over the past year, the Belfer Center brought the International Council back on campus for our annual spring meeting. The hybrid event marked the first time that the Council had come back to campus since the pandemic, and we were able to showcase our research with a dynamic day and a half of programming. Sessions focused on Cyber Security with a case taught by Co-Director Eric Rosenbach and Cyber Project Director Lauren Zabierek. We also held a session with Board members Karen Dynan and Jason Furman that focused on the economy; and lastly, we held a fireside chat with Director Ash Carter and Belfer Senior Fellow General Joseph Dunford. They discussed their time working together at the Pentagon.

Frances Ulmer, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Graham Allison, and the Korea Project’s Director John Park.

Learning from Leaders

December 1, 2022: Sue Gordon, former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence, speaks to students during a Women in Defense, Diplomacy, and Development (W3D) ‘ask me anything’ session.

Publications & Communications

e Belfer Center produced a signi cant amount of policy-relevant research in 2022, publishing reports and policy briefs and convening in-depth events on issues ranging from nuclear and cyber challenges to security and intelligence, climate change and emerging technologies, and other critical challenges facing the nation and world. e mission of the Center’s Communications Team is to get the Center’s work to where it will have the most impact – including to audiences such as policymakers and shapers, the public, and the media.

provided in uential committee sta ers with select policy briefs and research primers.

2022 was a strong year for the Center’s media outreach. Leading websites and newspapers published nearly 250 pieces of analysis and opinion from our scholars during the year, including many in the nation’s most-competitive outlets such as e New York Times, e Wall Street Journal, e Washington Post, and Foreign A airs.

During 2022, the Center hosted more than 240 events. With both in-person and online attendees, our events continued to attract strong interest, including from top journalists around the world.

With more than 2.8 million views this calendar year, 1.2 million unique users, and a time-on-research page average of over 3:30 minutes, BelferCenter.org continues to be a leading source of relevant research for policymakers, government o cials, academics, students, and the media.

Holdren, William Xue, and Jonathan M. Moch, and the 2022 National Cyber Power Index by Julia Voo, Irfan Hemani, and Daniel Cassidy. Our experts also produced extremely timely work, including multiple pieces about the con ict in Ukraine, the ongoing dangers of climate change, and the ever-evolving relationships between the United States, Russia, and China.

To reach relevant audiences during the year, the Communications Team used several tools including the Belfer Center website, email blasts, and media and Congressional outreach. rough a strong media relations e ort, the team reached the public and the policy community through broadcast, print, and online interviews and commentary regarding the research and timely world events. To communicate with targeted Congressional members and committees, the Communications team

Center members published 82 journal articles, 45 papers and reports, and 15 books and book chapters. While a plurality of our audience is in the United States (45.6%), we also have maintained a strong international presence, with 85,746 (7.02%) users logging in from China, 56,273 (4.6%) from the United Kingdom, and 53,819 (4.4%) visiting the website from India.

Some of the most-read reports from the past year include Graham Allison’s series on the U.S.-China rivalry, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context by John P.

Our presence on social media also continued to expand this year. Our Twitter followers increased 11% to 36,339 followers (with an average engagement rate of over 2.5%), while our Facebook page reached 32,680 people this calendar year (a 19.1% increase from 2021). As we featured more of our work training tomorrow’s leaders, the Center’s LinkedIn pro le grew by nearly 50% to 17,837 followers. We also boosted our presence on Instagram, surpassing the 1,000 followers mark (currently at 1,224 followers) and averaging a 2% engagement rate with our feed posts. Our lifetime YouTube views reached 3,692,235, a yearly gain of 16%.

e following pages of publication listings provide a glimpse of the extraordinary range and in uence of the Center’s scholars.

“Remembering Ash Carter.” News, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, November 2, 2022.

Carter, Ash and Eric Rosenbach, Paul Kolbe, and Kevin Ryan. “It’s Going to Get Worse Before it Gets Better in Ukraine.” Harvard Gazette, March 2, 2022.

Allison, Graham, Alyssa Resar and Karina Barbesino. “The Great Diplomatic Rivalry: China vs the U.S.” Paper, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, August 2022.

North America 2.0: Forging a Continental Future. Book. Edited by Tom Long and Alan Bersin. Washington, DC: North American Institutes at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, November 2022.

Bilmes, Linda J., V.S. Ibanez, Yahya Chaudhry, and Jonathan R. Hakim. “Strengthening Management of UN Peacekeeping Operations: A Review of UN Peacekeeping Operations Audits.” HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP21-037, December 2021.

Brooks, Vincent K. and John S. Park. “Micro Deterrence Signaling.” Paper. Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, April 4, 2022.

Budjeryn, Mariana. “Non-Proliferation and State Succession: The Demise of the USSR and the Nuclear Aftermath in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.” Journal of Cold War Studies, Spring 2022.

Bunn, Matthew. “America Has No Good Options on Iran.” Foreign A airs, January 17, 2022.

Causey, Douglas and Christian Leuprecht, ed. Polar Cousins: Comparing Antarctic and Arctic Geostrategic Futures. University of Calgary Press, December 2022.

Chenoweth, Erica and Zoe Marks. “Pro-democracy Organizing against Autocracy in the United States: A Strategic Assessment & Recommendations.” Paper, RWP22-01, Harvard Kennedy School, October 2022.

Clement, Joel. “The Arctic Won’t Wait: Novel Structures for Advancing Arctic Goals During Geopolitical Crisis.” Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 28, 2022.

De Blasio, Nicola and Derek Zheng. “Technological Innovation and the Future of Energy Value Chains.” Policy Brief, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, April 8, 2022.

Dobriansky, Paula and Nate Morris. “The Market Rewards Companies That Prioritize National Security.” The National Interest, August 12, 2022.

House, Karen. “Biden Needs to Make Up With Saudi Arabia, or China Will Gain.” The Wall Street Journal, March 31, 2022.

Findlay, Trevor. Transforming Nuclear Safeguards Culture. Cambridge, Mass. Belfer Center Studies in International Security, June 2022.

Frankel, Je rey. “Let the WTO Referee Carbon Border Taxes.” Project Syndicate, November 29, 2022.

Furman, Jason. “One Good Inflation Report Isn’t Enough.” The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2022.

Gallagher, Kelly Sims and Laura Diaz Anadon, “DOE Budget Authority for Energy Research, Development, and Demonstration Database,” Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; Department of Land Economy, Center for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge; and Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School. July 8, 2020.

Garver, Lori. Escaping Gravity: My Quest to Transform NASA and Launch a New Space Age. New York City: Diversion Books, June 2022.

Giovannini, Francesca. “ Negative Security Assurances After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” Arms Control Today, July 7, 2022.

Holdren, John.“Reflections on the Supreme Court’s Decision in West Virginia v. EPA.” The Daily Climate and Environmental Health News, July 18, 2022.

Kayyem, Juliette. The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters. New York, NY: Public A airs, March 2022.

Kolbe, Paul, Maria Robson-Morrow and Lauren Zabierek. “The Cybersecurity Risks of an Escalating RussiaUkraine Conflict.” Harvard Business Review, February 18, 2022.

Lee, Henry and Daniel Schrag. “China’s Climate Commitments Face Major Challenges.” The National Interest, February 13, 2022.

Logevall, Fredrik interview. “Are We Entering Another Cold War? Probably Not—But it Could Be Even Worse.” Harvard Kennedy School, March 8, 2022.

Madad, Syra and Andrew B. Wallach.“5 Lessons Learned in Pandemic Year 2.” Medium, May 24, 2022.

Marks, Zoe, Fatemeh Haghighatjoo and Erica Chenoweth. “Iran’s Women on the Frontlines.” Foreign A airs, October 31, 2022.

Miller, Steven E. “Hard Times for Arms Control: What Can Be Done?” Paper, Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, February 2022.

Moch, Jonathan M., William Xue and John P. Holdren. “Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Technologies and Costs in the U.S. Context.” Policy Brief, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, January 2022.

Narayanamurti, Venkatesh.“Technoscientific Research: A Missing Term in R&D Discourse.” National Academy of Engineering, January 18, 2022.

Nye, Joseph S. Jr. “The Evolution of America’s China Strategy.” Project Syndicate, November 2, 2022.

O’Sullivan, Meghan L. and Jason Bordo . “By Not Acting on Climate, Congress Endangers U.S. National Security.” Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.

Park, John. “Easing U.S. Sanctions on North Korea Could Benefit Both Sides, HKS Korea Expert Tells Lawmakers.” May 17, 2022.

“Jane Perlez Connects the Dots from Nixon and Mao to Putin and Xi.” News, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, March 9, 2022.

“Belfer Center’s Eric Rosenbach Named to Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board.” Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, October 20, 2022.

Rudd, Kevin. The Avoidable War? New York, NY: Hachette Book Group, 2022.

Russell, Cristine. “Innovation Key to Nigerian Startup to Keep Food Fresh.” Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, November 21, 2022.

Sanner, Beth and Steven A. Cook. “Russia Still Has Willing Partners in the Middle East.” Foreign Policy, July 20, 2022.

Sandler, Ely and Daniel Schrag. “Financing the Energy Transition through Cross-Border Investment.” Paper, Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, November 2022.

Saradzhyan, Simon. “Putin’s Increasingly Loose Talk on Use of Nukes.” Edited by Angelina Flood. Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Davis Center for Russian Studies, and Indiana University, November 10, 2022.

Schneier, Bruce. A Hacker’s Mind: How the Powerful Bend Society’s Rules, and How to Bend Them Back. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, February 2022.

Stavins, Robert N. “The Relative Merits of Carbon Pricing Instruments: Taxes versus Trading.”

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, vol. 16. no. 1, 62-82, Winter 2022.

“Students Build StoryMaps, Camaraderie at 2022 Arctic Data Stories Workshop.” Belfer Center Newsletter. Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, Spring 2022.

Voo, Julia, Irfan Hemani and Daniel Cassidy. “National Cyber Power Index 2022.” Belfer Center for Science and International A airs, Harvard Kennedy School, September 2022.

Walt, Stephen M.“Xi’s China Is Good—and Bad—for the United States.” Foreign Policy, November 1, 2022.

Walton, Calder. “What’s Old Is New Again: Cold War Lessons for Countering Disinformation.” vol. 5. no. 4, Fall 2022 .

Zabierek, Lauren. “The New Frontier of Democratic Self-Defense.” Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, Winter 2022.

September 27, 2022: Fellows and students mingle at an open house hosted by the National Security Fellows.

Focus on Fellows

September 13, 2022: Kadija Diallo, a Belfer Young Leader Student Fellow, and Sarah Hubbard, Technology and Public Purpose Fellow, smile at the Belfer Center’s yearly orientation, an opportunity to meet and mingle with the whole Belfer community.

Project Updates

Arctic Initiative

The Arctic Initiative acts as a key convener of Arctic thought leaders, bringing together researchers, policymakers, Indigenous leaders, scientists, and students to address Arctic challenges.

Co-Director:

John P. Holdren

Co-Director: Henry Lee

Associate Director: Brittany Janis

Administrative Coordinator:

Karin Vander Schaaf

Associate Director, ENRP/STPP:

Amanda Sardonis

Communications and Outreach Specialist, ENRP/STPP:

Elizabeth Hanlon

Administrative Coordinator, STPP

Karin Vander Schaaf

Project Coordinator:

Wilfried Kuugauraq Zibell

From launching a major collaboration on permafrost thaw to working with Indigenous and local communities to advance resilience, health, and infrastructure projects through research, to convening dialogues on the future of Arctic governance, to providing opportunities for tomorrow’s Arctic leaders to learn from today’s, the Arctic Initiative spent 2022 elevating understanding and policy dialogue about Arctic challenges.

e Permafrost Pathways Project, a six-year, $41 million initiative led in partnership with Woodwell Climate Research Center and the Alaska Institute for Justice and catalyzed through e Audacious Project, brings together leading experts in Arctic climate science, policy action, and environmental justice to inform and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies that address the local and global impacts of permafrost thaw. In September, a Permafrost Pathways meeting hosted by our Initiative convened over y Indigenous leaders, scientists, Arctic policy experts, and U.S. federal and state o cials to discuss the project’s policy dimensions. Participants mapped e orts and gaps in addressing permafrost-thaw impacts and laid the groundwork for expanded collaborations.

In May, representatives from North American Arctic Indigenous Peoples’ Organizations gathered at HKS for an Arctic Resilience Discovery Workshop, to share how their communities are responding to the dangers from permafrost thaw. In June, the Arctic Initiative and the Alaska Native Health Board hosted a Strategic Roundtable on Community Infrastructure Development in Alaska, which brought together representatives from Native health corporations and statewide Native health groups to discuss how to use recently allocated federal funds to build infrastructure in rural Alaska.

e Initiative also hosted discussions on the future of Arctic cooperation following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A May seminar at HKS, Arctic Ocean Governance: Cooperation A er Con ict? examined those challenges with a particular focus on the Barents Sea and Bering Strait. In September, the Arctic Initiative and the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Polar Institute convened a meeting on the Future of Arctic Cooperation and Governance. In November, the Arctic Initiative, the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, and the World Wildlife Fund hosted a workshop, Bering Strait: Navigation and Conservation in Times of Con ict, focused on transboundary risk management.

e Arctic Initiative continued to engage students and young Arctic leaders in our work as research assistants, through our course Policy and Social Innovation for the Changing Arctic, and through student-focused workshops and conferences. e Arctic Data Stories Workshop, co-organized with the Woodwell Climate Research Center and Esri, provided students an opportunity to explore geospatial data and policy. e Arctic Initiative partnered with the Native and Indigenous Student Caucus to develop a conference, Healing Turtle Island: Indigenous Leadership rough the Climate Crisis, which invited Indigenous leaders to speak to an HKS audience about examples of impactful Indigenous-led activism.

is October, HKS sent a delegation to Iceland’s annual Arctic Circle Assembly, led by Dean Doug Elmendorf, who presented an overview of the School’s ongoing work on climate and the Arctic. In addition to presentations and private high-level meetings with Arctic leaders at the Assembly, our Initiative hosted an Arctic Innovation Lab featuring students from six collaborating universities.vvv

Avoiding Great Power War & Applied History

e Avoiding Great Power War Project under the direction of Graham Allison produced policy-relevant research and engaged policymakers on measures to avoid catastrophic war between the United States and China and the United States and Russia.

China: is research addresses the challenges the U.S. and China face as they grapple with ucydides’s Trap—the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.

Professor Allison’s team completed a four-part report, “ e Great Rivalry: China vs. the U.S. in the 21st Century,” documenting what has actually happened in the competition between China and the U.S. in the past twenty years in the technology, military, economic, and diplomatic arenas. Our nding is that China—a nation that in most races the U.S. had di culty nding in our rearview mirror 20 years ago—is now on our tail, to our side, or in some cases a bit ahead of us. e report received press coverage in Politico, e Wall Street Journal, e Financial Times, e Economist, and NPR, to name a few.

To advance opportunities to engage China on a range of issues, the Belfer Center China Working Group continued to meet under the Chairmanship of Professor Allison and Larry Summers. Speakers included Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and President and CEO of Asia Society, Kurt Campbell, Deputy Assistant to the President and National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Paci c, and Susan ornton, Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center and former Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Paci c A airs.

Russia: e project marked the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis amid the possibility of nuclear use stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Professor Graham Allison published opinion pieces in Arms Control Today and Foreign A airs and participated in two public events on the lessons of the crisis, the latter featuring Professor Nina Khrushcheva, the granddaughter of Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev. In the past year the project has also helped arrange high-pro le visits by current and former government o cials including Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Sta Mark Milley.

Applied History Project

Led by co-chairs Graham Allison and Niall Ferguson, alongside Assistant Director Calder Walton, the Applied History Project aims to address the “history de cit” in policymaking.

For the third year, the Project administered an essay contest. On the 75th anniversary of the signing of the National Security Act, contest participants were tasked with “Imagining a New National Security Act for the 21st Century” and proposing updates to address its shortcomings and improve intelligence capabilities. Beyond this initiative, we expanded our Applied History Working Groups to include a Zoom option. While we continue to have smaller in-person sessions for intimate meetings with Paul Kennedy, Fiona Hill, James Mattis and others, opening the sessions to online participants allowed us to maximize our reach. We expanded our cohort of May Fellows in Policy and History to a record eleven pre- and post-doctoral fellows.

The Avoiding Great Power War Project is an interdisciplinary e ort to investigate, analyze, and produce policy-relevant research on great power relations. Directed by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, the project builds upon a basic premise: the historical record of great power conflict can serve as an aid to understanding the dynamics between today’s great powers, namely the United States, Russia, and China.

Director:

Graham Allison

Research Manager:

Evan Sankey

Executive Assistant:

Simone O’Hanlon

Project Coordinator:

Arissa Shaw

Research Assistants:

Kevin Klyman

Peter Gaber

Kate Davidson

Bailey Marsheck

Raphael Piliero

Joshua Henderson

Cyber Project

Cybersecurity was featured prominently in the news over the last year with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As fears of “cyberwar” grew, and then turned into questioning the “absence of cyberwar,” many turned to the Cyber Project to understand what the world was seeing (or, not seeing). Executive Director Lauren Zabierek conducted several TV and radio interviews, diving into the nuances of activity in the cyber domain against the backdrop of warfare and geopolitics. She also co-authored an article on preparation for cyber con ict in the Harvard Business Review with the Intelligence Project’s Paul Kolbe and Maria Robson Morrow.

With CISA’s “Shields Up” campaign in e ect to mitigate against the e ects of con ict spillover in the cyber domain, there was renewed focus on domestic cybersecurity protection. e Project published a piece in War on the Rocks that built on an earlier paper on operational collaboration in cyber, but with more of an emphasis on investing in CISA regional o ces as critical hubs. CISA Director Jen Easterly tweeted and praised the article, noting this was a priority for the agency.

At the same time, with the debate on federal data privacy legislation heating up, the Cyber Project worked with the Cyber and Emerging reats team at R Street Institute to conduct a series of analyses on the current roadblocks preventing its passage in Congress. ose papers informed a number of conversations on the topic between industry, nonpro t, and government o cials.

Amid the con ict and a er reading Juliette Kayyem’s new book, e Devil Never Sleeps, the Project took on the subject of mandatory cybersecurity standards within critical infrastructure.

Zabierek and Kayyem co-authored an article in InkStick Media calling for a shi in the narrative on cyber regulations, from one of “pro-business vs pro-big government” to one of “public safety and resilience” in an age of constant disaster.

In this spirit, and in continuation of work on cybersecurity related to water and wastewater from the previous year, the Project undertook the task of investigating a commonsense approach to cyber regulations for the water and wastewater sector in Massachusetts. e Project convened several experts in cybersecurity, policy, and utility operations for a day-long workshop to understand the threats and challenges, and to identify areas for consensus and ways forward. A report aimed at the Joint Committee on Cyber and Technology in the Massachusetts state legislature is forthcoming.

Finally, the 5th #Share eMicInCyber campaign was held on October 21, 2022. National cybersecurity leaders like National Cyber Director Chris Inglis, CISA Director Jen Easterly, and NSA Cyber Director Rob Joyce participated as allies in the national campaign along with 200 other allies and practitioners in the day-long social media event. is year’s theme focused on “Belonging in Cyber” to drive it home, and Zabierek co-authored a Belfer article with Jen Easterly on creating a culture of belonging in cyber organizations. is year’s #Share eMicInCyber attracted 40 million Twitter impressions.

The Cyber Project investigates how developments in the field of cybersecurity will shape international conflict.

Principal Investigator: Eric Rosenbach

Executive Director: Lauren Zabierek

Defense Project

Over the past calendar year, the Defense Project hosted a plethora of events. Each had the overarching goal of bridging the gap between civilians and the military and improving the ability of leaders in national security to positively impact their eld a er their time at HKS.

e National Security Fellows Program, part of the Defense Project, remains a vibrant part of the Belfer Center and overall discussion on security at HKS. is 10-month fellowship for U.S. and “ ve-eye” military and intelligence ofcers is certi ed by the Department of Defense as a senior service college fellowship to develop strategic-mindedness, executive leadership skills, and broader intellectual perspectives.

For the 2021-2022 year, the program hosted 17 National Security Fellows. ey represented each service of the military as well as NGA, NRO, and OUSD(I&S). e 19 National Security Fellows of the coming Class of 2023 represent each service of the military, NGA, ODNI, OUSD(I&S), and the Royal Australian Air Force.

is semester, the Defense Project revamped its “For the Common Defense” Initiative, in which select National Security Fellows host a candid discussion about the professional and personal aspects of being a public servant, called “Pizza and Pints with NSF Fellows.” Topics this semester ranged from recruiting challenges, sexual assault in the military, civil-military relations, and leadership during crisis. ese discussions are completely o the record and students who attend are encouraged to ask questions they would otherwise never could ask.

In the last year, the Defense Project hosted a myriad of high-pro le guests, including LTG (ret.) Charles Hooper, Ellen Lord, Jim Clapper, Beth E. Sanner, Sean McFate, General (ret.) Curtis Scaparrotti, General Eric Smith, the Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps, General (ret.) Vincent K. Brooks. Each of these guests shared valuable perspectives with the NSFs in private sessions and with the greater HKS community during public events.

e 2023 National Security Fellows throughout the course of their studies will conduct research on areas of interest to them. Some research topics this year include culture enhancement of the U.S. Army to improve recruiting and retention e orts, the use of Arti cial Intelligence to enhance operational medical capability, and the professionalization of the space mobility and logistics workforce within the Space Force.

e aim of the Defense Project in 2023 and beyond is to increase the value of the NSF Program to decisionmakers, increase the diversity of the Fellows representing the military and intelligence establishments, provide an exceptional learning atmosphere, and leverage the Fellows and guests to bridge the gap between the military and the broader public it serves.

The purpose of the Defense Project is to educate and inspire the next generation of national leaders in the national security policy field. The project seeks to illuminate the critical relationship between civilian leaders and the uniformed military in the U.S. defense and intelligence establishment in the pursuit of security policy success through a combination of discussions with top o cials and research. The research being done by the National Security Fellows aims to make concrete impacts on important defense and intelligence policy issues.

Director: Eric Rosenbach

Project Coordinator: Natalia Angel (until Aug) Emily O’Toole (since Aug)

Environment and Natural Resources

The Environment and Natural Resources Program is at the center of the Harvard Kennedy Schools research and outreach on energy, climate change, sustainability, and natural resources policy at the regional, national, and global levels.

Director:

Henry Lee

Associate Director:

Amanda Sardonis

Communications and Outreach Specialist:

Elizabeth Hanlon

Faculty/Sta Assistant: Paul Sherman

In 2022, ENRP continued to advance policy-relevant research focusing on overcoming the challenges of achieving a decarbonized energy system, including the development and deployment of clean energy technologies and policies—and the institutions, systems, and human capacity to support them. Many of ENRP’s ongoing e orts on energy and climate policy, including the Arctic Initiative, operate in partnership with the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP).

e Carbon-Neutrality Pathways for China and the United States project is identifying the technologies most likely to make a major contribution to meeting the mid-century decarbonization goals in the United States, as well as the barriers to reaching their full emission-reduction potential, and the policies and regulations that could be implemented by 2030 to maintain a pathway to net-zero by 2050. Collaborators at SEAS and Tsinghua University are conducting analogous work on China, looking toward its 2060 carbon neutrality target. ENRP published policy briefs on o shore wind for electricity generation; carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) for fossil-fueled power plants and certain industrial facilities; and a modernized electricity grid with a signi cant increase in new transmission. ENRP/STPP’s China-focused activities included testimony before the Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, articles on the supply chain for strategic and critical minerals, and commentary on the institutional reforms necessary for China to meet its climate and energy security goals.

ENRP presented the 2022 Roy Family Award for Environmental Partnership to ColdHubs, an enterprise that deploys solar-powered walk-in cold rooms to reduce post-harvest losses for

smallholder farmers across rural Nigeria. e program contributed the chapter “Partnerships under Pressure: Lessons on Adaptation and Overcoming Challenges” to a new book, Partnerships for Sustainability in Contemporary Global Governance, which investigates the durability of partnerships and their adaptability as a key condition for partnership e ectiveness and long-term sustainability.

Our Future of Hydrogen project published a journal article on competitive and secure renewable hydrogen markets for the European Union and two research reports: MIGHTY, an optimization model to investigate renewable hydrogen production, consumption, and trade between countries; and a report on the roles countries could play in future green hydrogen industrial markets, focusing on ammonia, methanol, and steel production.

roughout 2022, ENRP organized the weekly Energy Policy Seminar Series. Continuing the energy transition theme, speakers discussed the federal role in electricity transmission, scenarios for the eventual demise of the fossil fuel sector, and the energy-equity gap. In the spring, ENRP continued its Science in the Media Seminar Series with two events on how journalists and scientists communicate solutions to the climate and energy crisis to the public.

In 2023, ENRP will expand research on reducing China’s dependence on coal power and examine the In ation Reduction Act’s impact on the United States’ ability to accelerate the deployment of new energy technologies. e Program will o er student study groups on climate-smart agriculture and a just energy transition. New research e orts will focus on electricity regulation to meet climate goals and nancing building decarbonization.

Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship has focused its programming and research on understanding how the war is reshaping transatlantic security and future European and international defense agreements as well as its implications for the West.

e Project’s high-level international speaker series covered a range of topics that are either direct results of the war in Ukraine or are substantially impacted. ese include Germany’s break with decades of defense policy precedent or Zeitenwende with Wolfgang Ischinger, former Chairman of the Munich Security Conference and former German Ambassador to the U.S.; the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO with Janne Kuusela, Defense Policy Director of Finland; and the United Kingdom’s post-Brexit security landscape with Nick Carter, former Chief of the Defense Sta , and Karen Pierce, Ambassador of the United Kingdom to the U.S.

In addition to the programmatic focus on security, the Project co-sponsored a Harvard Law School event with Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commissioner for Trade, who shared his views on strengthening EU-U.S. bilateral relations, reviving transatlantic trade, and geopolitical leadership in a fragmenting global order. e Project also co-sponsored a seminar with Harvard’s Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies which explored EU economic governance in the wake of COVID and the Ukraine war with Federico Fabbrini, Professor of European Law at Dublin City University.

In September 2022, the Project welcomed to the Kennedy School Dr. Daniela Schwarzer as the annual Pierre Keller Visiting Professor. Dr. Schwarzer is the Executive Director of the Open Society Foundations in Europe and Central Asia and was previously Special Advisor to EU High Representative and Vice President of the Commission Josep Borrell. Dr. Schwarzer taught a popular course on “ e Future of the European Union: e EU as an International Actor Facing Russia’s War in Ukraine” and spoke at various seminars on transatlantic security around campus, providing a unique EU perspective on policy discussions at a critical time for the alliance.

Similarly, senior Spanish diplomat Nicolas Cimarra joined the Project as the Rafael del Pino-Spanish Ministry of Foreign A airs Fellow from his post as Deputy Permanent Representative for political and military a airs at the Permanent Representation of Spain to the OSCE. is academic year, he will be undertaking a major research study on European security architecture in the wake of Russia’s invasion and domestic polarization in the U.S. and Europe.

In addition, the Project has published two major reports “NATO and Climate Change: A Climatized Perspective on Security,” written by the Rafael del Pino-Spanish Ministry of Foreign A airs Fellow from AY 2021-22, Lucia Garcia Rico, and “Strengthening Civil Society in Spain: A Post-COVID-19 Agenda” by Marta Rey-García and Sebastián Royo, two Spanish professors who are part of the Project’s collaboration with the Rafael del Pino Foundation.

The Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship aims to strengthen Harvard University’s capacities for teaching, research, and policy on the relationship between the U.S. and Europe.

Faculty Chair: Eric Rosenbach

Senior Fellow/Advisor: Karl Kaiser

Research and Administrative Manager: Erika Manouselis

Research Fellow: Svenja Kirsch

Future of Diplomacy

The Future of Diplomacy Project is dedicated to promoting the study and understanding of diplomacy, negotiation and statecraft in international politics today. The Project aims to build Harvard Kennedy School’s ability to teach in this area, to support research in modern diplomatic practice, and to build public understanding of diplomacy’s indispensable role in an increasingly complex and globalized world.

Faculty Chair: Eric Rosenbach

Senior Fellow/Advisor: Amb. Paula Dobriansky

Research and Administrative Manager: Erika Manouselis

A er celebrating its 10-year anniversary with the retrospective A Decade of Diplomacy: e Future of Diplomacy Project at 10, the Future of Diplomacy Project continued with its mission to promote the study of diplomacy and to train the next generation of leaders for an increasingly complex global landscape. Engaging with high-level foreign policy practitioners from around the world, the Project’s international speaker series welcomed a variety of experts from the multilateral space and the Global South, as well as from seven di erent U.S. State Department bureaus and o ces for its more than 30 events this year.

Guests included Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, former Executive Director of UN Women, who spoke about harnessing the intersection of diplomacy, technology, and education to close the global digital divide for women and girls worldwide; Chan Heng Chee, former Ambassador of Singapore to the U.S., who spoke about Southeast Asia’s view of the war in Ukraine; Martin Kimani, Permanent Representative of Kenya to the United Nations, who addressed Africa’s global role in a changing world; and Iván Duque, former President of Colombia, who gave an important speech on the status of democracy across the Americas.

In June 2022, the Project co-hosted the State Department’s Learning Agenda Launch which featured Ambassador Victoria Nuland, Under Secretary for Political A airs and former Senior Fellow at the Future of Diplomacy Project, on a panel with the Directors of Bureau of Budget & Planning (BP) and O ce of Foreign Assistance (F) to discuss the Department’s unprecedented e ort to institutionalize evidence-based learning in its policymaking process. Similarly, the Project hosted Maryum Saifee, Senior Advisor in the Secretary’s O ce of Diversity and Inclusion at the State Department, to discuss State’s Diversity,

Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility (DEIA) Strategic Plan and how the O ce is creating a more inclusive organization by recruiting and retaining a workforce that truly re ects America abroad.

e Project also hosted two multi-part study groups examining important but o en overlooked angles in current foreign policy debates: cultural diplomacy and multilateral negotiations for global common goods. In collaboration with Carla Dirlikov Canales, an Arts Envoy for the U.S. Department of State and Professor of Practice at Tu s University, the Project launched the So Power and Cultural Diplomacy Study Group which explored how to harness culture to advance foreign policy objectives in the Spring 2022 semester. Additionally, in the fall 2022 term, Former Vice Minister of Foreign A airs of Costa Rica and Harvard Advanced Leadership Initiative Fellow Elayne Whyte led “ e Challenges of Negotiating for Humanity in the XXI Century Study Group” looking at how to negotiate e ective and innovative agreements addressing the global problems facing humanity today that go beyond competing national interests, transcend boundaries, and a ect current and future generations as a whole.

Geopolitics of Energy

e focus of the Geopolitics of Energy Project (GEP) this year has been on the geopolitical consequences of the transition from oil and gas to alternative energy sources. e transition process itself is dramatically destabilizing to current patterns of politics. Rather than the old geopolitics of oil and gas gradually giving way to new geopolitics of alternative energy sources, the GEP expects to see the geopolitics of new energy to be—for decades—layered on top of the still-existent geopolitics of oil and gas. e result is a highly complex and volatile geopolitical arena—one that not only brings new national security challenges but also creates risks for the transition itself. If policymakers and citizens come to see the energy transition as at odds with core national security issues, the transition could stall.

is year, GEP research resulted in a number of publications and verbal analyses of this transition. Meghan O’Sullivan sought to inform policymakers and students about major challenges and opportunities at the intersection of these forces.

In a late October discussion on the podcast Hidden Forces, O’Sullivan and Jason Bordo , a Foreign Policy columnist and founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public A airs, said the move to a zerocarbon economy would not only require an unprecedented level of global cooperation, but would also inevitably lead to con ict leaving both winners and losers. Government investment and private sector innovation are crucial to managing the transition and mitigating expected risks, they argued. ey gave the example of the war in Ukraine and

the energy impacts on a Europe dependent on Russia for meeting its energy needs.

In other articles, O’Sullivan and co-authors gave examples of energy transitions and their impacts. For example, in the New York Times’ “Russia Isn’t a Dead Petrostate, and Putin Isn’t Going Anywhere,” they further discussed Russia’s energy hold on Europe.

In a Brookings Institution report released in February, O’Sullivan authored the chapter “Mexico’s Energy Reforms: A Blow to Realizing the Most Competitive and Dynamic Region in the World.” In it, she discusses challenges faced in Mexico when a new government attempted “energy reforms” that would have reversed successful gains the state had made in renewable energy. e government’s moves would shi control of the power sector back to the staterun utility and move the independent energy regulators back under the auspices of the state.

In a Foreign Policy piece, “By Not Acting on Climate, Congress Endangers U.S. National Security” O’Sullivan and Bordo argued that Congress must support steps to facilitate the transition to a carbon-free future not only for the environment but also for national security. In the years to come, they argued, “the United States’ resilience and geopolitical in uence will require the country to lead on all forms of energy—not just in oil and gas but also in a broad range of clean energy technologies and materials.”

The Geopolitics of Energy Project explores the intersection of energy, climate, national security, and international a airs. The project, launched in 2011, aims to improve our understanding of how energy demand and supply shape international politics—and vice versa. It also endeavors to inform policymakers and students about major challenges to global energy security and, where possible, to propose new ways of thinking about and addressing these issues. The project focuses both on conventional and alternative energies, as both will influence and be influenced by geopolitical realities.

Director: Meghan O’Sullivan

Project Coordinator: Cassandra Favart

Harvard Project on Climate Agreements

The goal of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, established in 2007, is to identify and advance scientifically sound, economically sensible, and politically pragmatic public policy options for addressing global climate change. Drawing upon leading thinkers from around the world, the Harvard Project conducts research on policy architecture, key design elements, and institutional dimensions of international and domestic climate-change policy.

Director:

Robert N. Stavins

Co-Director:

Robert C. Stowe

Project Manager: Jason Chapman

Program Coordinator: Casey A. Billings

e Harvard Environmental Economics Program (HEEP) continued to provide support for the Program’s approximately 20 Pre-Doctoral Fellows over the course of the period. ese Ph.D students are based primarily at HKS and Harvard’s Department of Economics, but also include students from Harvard Business School.

e Harvard Project on Climate Agreements conducted a series of panel events and individual meetings at the Twenty-Seventh Conference of the Parties (COP-27) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Egypt in November 2022. Along with Harvard University Center for the Environment (HUCE) and the Salata Institute, the Harvard Project provided partial funding for four Harvard students to attend COP-27, and expects to also support students for COP-28 in the United Arab Emirates in late 2023. You can follow our work on our Tumblr page, COP27 Tumblr page, which has details on all our work at COP 27.

e Harvard Environmental Economics Program is a partner in a project supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, focusing on climate change policy in the United States. e PI for this project is Joe Aldy. M-R CBG and the Harvard University Center for the Environment, which has made generous contributions to this project. e project hosted a major two-day research workshop on December 1 – 2, 2022 at

HKS. ere were approximately 40 participants, all expert researchers on this topic.

Professor Stavins is participating in a project on the science and policy of reducing methane emissions, supported by the Harvard University Climate Change Solutions Fund. e PI is Professor Daniel Jacob in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. (Our primary panel event at COP-27 pertained to this project.)

Professor Stavins and Dr. Robert Stowe continue to lead HKS executive education programs on climate change and energy policy. We conduct one in-person and one online oneweek program each year. Professor Stavins and Dr. Stowe have also contributed signi cantly to an HKS Exec Ed response to an RFP for a custom climate-change program for a multilateral development bank.

Homeland Security & Security and Global Health

During 2022, the Homeland Security and Security and Global Health Projects continued programming and research initiatives with their fellows Nate Bruggerman, Alan Bersin, Steve Johnson, and Dr Margaret Bourdeaux. Nate Bruggeman is a former Counselor to the Special Representative for Border A airs at the Department of Homeland Security and Counselor to Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Alan Bersin served as Assistant Secretary for Policy & International A airs and Chief Diplomatic O cer in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Steve Johnson is a technologist and entrepreneur focused on the borderless threat posed by arti cial intelligence and the open internet. Dr. Margaret Bourdeaux has conducted research focused on health systems in con ict-a ected states and has worked with the O ce of the Secretary of Defense Policy to analyze the US Department of Defense’s global health programs.

A major output of 2022 was the release of e Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters in March 2022. Written by Juliette Kayyem, the book addresses many of the security challenges and crisis management recommendations tackled by the Homeland Security and Security and Global Health Projects this year. Kayyem also spearheaded the Harvard Kennedy School - McKinsey & Company Rethinking Resilience and Crisis Management Forum focused on current frameworks for responding to 21st century threats and hazards, strategies for protecting people in an age of declining trust and marginalized expertise, and inequities in our current disaster response systems.

To continue student and public engagement, the Projects continued the Homeland Security Policy Paper Series and Speaker Series. Publications included a book edited by Bersin in collaboration with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, North America 2.0: Forging a Continental Future, that o ers an agenda for how North American leaders can forge inclusive and e ective strategies to address emerging issues related to North America border control, security, migration, energy, and the environment. Bruggeman engaged students in discussions on the status and conditions of the U.S. – Mexico border. Kayyem hosted a seminar with Johnson focused on the rise of misinformation and invasion of privacy through the internet, along with strategies for government regulation of the internet. Bersin engaged students with a seminar on the evolution and status of the Homeland Security Enterprise over the past twenty years, along with discussions regarding United States – Mexico relations.

To ll an ongoing information gap stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, Juliette Kayyem and Margaret Bourdeaux served as advisors to a number of organizations, including the National Governors Association, Partners in Health, and Building Trade Unions. Bourdeaux co-chaired the Digital Pandemic Response Working Group at the Berkman Klein Center and the Task Force on Medical Countermeasures R&D through the Program in Global Public Policy at HMS. Joined by Harvard graduate students and administrators, she submitted feedback to the Senate HELP Committee regarding its discussion dra of the PREVENT Pandemics Act. Further, she hosted a seminar with students focused on why health systems are important to protect during periods

The Homeland Security Project focuses on the unique challenges and choices around protecting the American homeland. The Security and Global Health Project advances research and public policy on critical health security threats.

Director: Juliette Kayyem

Intelligence Project

The Intelligence Project advances intelligence study and research, addressing the critical nexus between intelligence and policy. The project focuses on building a new generation of intelligence practitioners and policymakers.

Director: Paul Kolbe

Assistant Director for Research: Calder Walton

Program Manager: Maria Robson-Morrow

Associate: Michael Miner

Administrator: Aliza Amin (MPP ’24)

e Intelligence Project hosts the Recanati-Kaplan Foundation Fellowship, which brings senior intelligence practitioners from around the world for a year of research and study at Harvard. In Fall 2022, the Project welcomed Morocco to the fellowship and welcomed back Australia, hosting a total of 16 fellows from nine countries and 13 intelligence agencies.

Leading up to and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Intelligence Project produced several webinars, research articles, and opinion pieces on Russian disinformation, critical infrastructure security, open-source intelligence, drone warfare, and the con ict’s short- and long-term security implications.

e Project hosted several seminars with government and private sector practitioners in 2022, with highlights including:

• Open-Source Intelligence: e Art of the Possible

• True or False: e Battle Against Disinformation

• Co-hosted sessions for Belfer Fellows with General Paul Nakasone, NSA Director, and William Burns, CIA Director

• Analytic Objectivity and Avoiding Politicization in Intelligence

• Innovation in the Intelligence Community

• Embracing Commercially Sourced Intelligence for Strategic Advantage

• Spies, Lies, and Algorithms with Amy Zegart

In April, the Project published e Past, Present, and Future of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in the American Intelligence Community, in which Michael Miner and Lindsay Temes examine the history of diversity initiatives in the intelligence community and paths forward. e report’s launch included a webinar with perspectives from several former practitioners.

e Intelligence and Applied History Projects marked the 75th Anniversary of the National Security Act with a May 2022 conference featuring intelligence historians and practitioners, and an essay contest spearheaded by Recanati-Kaplan Fellow Paula Briscoe that had contestants reimagine a national security act for the twenty- rst century. e winners were Russ Travers, Sophie Faaborg-Andersen, Marie Couture, and Laurie LaPorte.

e Project conducted a similar retrospective with the CIA’s 75th Anniversary: Re ections on the Past, Visions of the Future, a conference held in September 2022 with hundreds of participants in person and online. Speakers, including the Hon. Sue Gordon and former CIA Acting Director Michael Morrell, explored events that shaped the agency and its people, new scholarship on the agency’s history, and portrayals of the CIA in popular culture.

Partnering with the Managing the Atom (MTA) and Applied History Projects, the project co-hosted the Cuban Missile Crisis at 60, a conference that explored lessons from the 1962 nuclear crisis to inform the present.

Building on a public-private counterterrorism workshop in Jordan in December 2021 through the Aqaba Process, the project published Countering Terrorism with “Blue Sky” inking, and hosted an October workshop with international public and private participants.

e Intelligence Study Group convened two remarkable cohorts of students eager to learn about intelligence theory and practice. Sessions unpacked the world of intelligence, organizational structures, historical case studies, and how intelligence supports decision-making. Guest speakers expressed an appreciation for Harvard’s commitment to intelligence studies as a signi cant value-add for student education and professional development.

International Security Journal

International Security, the leading journal in security studies, publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics of war and peace, as well as broader dimensions of security such as environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, transnational networks, and emerging technologies.

International Security has de ned the debate on U.S. national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security a airs for more than forty years. e journal values scholarship that challenges the conventional wisdom, examines policy, engages theory, illuminates history, and discovers new trends.

In 2022, International Security published nineteen articles in four issues (Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall). e articles addressed a wide range of topics, including the use of arti cial intelligence in war, inadvertent nuclear escalation between the United States and China, the use of drones in war, the construction of lasting peace a er civil war, the military implications of Chinese control of Taiwan, and the growing ability to identify previously invisible ships at sea using satellites and big data.

e journal and its authors received several awards in 2022:

• Former International Security intern and recent International Security author Wendy Leutert and her co-author Isaac Kardon received the University of Pennsylvania and Foreign A airs Perry House 2022 Emerging Scholars Policy Prize.

• Author Elizabeth Grasmeder, Duke University, received the American Political Science Association’s (APSA) Catherine McArdle Kelleher Award for Best International Security Article for her piece,

“Leaning on Legionnaires: Why Modern States Recruit Foreign Soldiers,” International Security, Summer 2021

• International Security Executive Editor Jacqueline L. Hazelton received the APSA Foreign Policy Section’s Best Book Award for 2021–2022 for Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare (Cornell Studies in Security A airs 2021). Hazelton’s article on the subject appeared in International Security, Summer 2017

International Security received high rankings for impact in 2022 based on the number of times the journal’s articles were referenced in other publications. According to Clarivate’s Journal Citation Reports, International Security’s Impact Factor rose from 5.432 in 2019 to 7.486 in 2020. It dipped marginally to 7.179 in 2021 but improved its position from #3 to #2 in the category of International Relations. International Security has ranked in the top ve for Impact Factor every year since 1996. e journal’s Scopus CiteScore is 6.9 for 2021, which places it in the 98th percentile in its category. e journal’s 2021 Google Scholar h5-index is 35 in Military Studies, putting it at #2.

International Security promotes the analysis and policy recommendations that appear in its pages. International Security articles were featured or referenced in major news and policy outlets, including Paul Krugman’s column in the New York Times; Foreign A airs; Lawfare; the Center for International and Strategic Studies’ podcast Pekinology; the National Interest, and War on the Rocks.

International Security strives to continue publishing and promoting the best possible articles in security studies.

International Security is America’s leading peer-reviewed journal of security a airs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary, theoretical, and historical security issues. International Security is edited at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International A airs and is published by The MIT Press.

Editor-in-Chief: Steven Miller

Executive Editor: Jacqueline L. Hazelton (since Feb)

Editor: Owen Coté, Jr.

Deputy Editor: Amanda Pearson

Executive Editor, Belfer Center Studies in International Security: Karen Motley

Publications Coordinator: Carly Demetre (until Aug) Monica Achen (since Aug)

International Security Program

The International Security Program (ISP) addresses the most pressing threats to U.S. national interests and international security. The program supports young scholars with its fellowship program and sponsors and edits the quarterly journal International Security, a leading peer-reviewed journal of security a airs that provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations.

Faculty Chair: Stephen M. Walt

Director: Steven E. Miller

Program Assistant: Susan M. Lynch

e International Security Program (ISP)’s Program on Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecra (GSSS), joint with MIT’s Security Studies Program (SSP), hosted a private discussion and dinner at the Harvard Faculty Club in May 2022 with Je rey Rathke, President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at the Johns Hopkins University, on “Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A Transformation of German Foreign and Security Policy?”

Two GSSS fellows were selected for 2022–2023: Moritz Sebastian Graefrath, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Notre Dame, in residence at the Center, and Caileigh Glenn, who received her Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 2022, in residence at MIT, began their fellowships in September 2022. Graefrath and Glenn were only o ered one-year fellowships as this is the last year of the GSSS Program.

ISP Faculty Chair Stephen Walt and HKS Professor Dani Rodrik published an article, “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World,” in Foreign A airs. is collaboration began as a Working Paper published by the Harvard Kennedy School and an event series launched by ISP in Fall 2020.

International Security Editor Jacqueline Hazelton’s book, Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare, won the American Political Science Association (APSA)’s Foreign Policy Section’s Best Book Award. e book is based on her doctoral dissertation, which was completed during her ISP predoctoral fellowship. Hazelton revised her book manuscript in part with feedback from a book workshop hosted by

ISP. is is an example of the program’s support and mentorship of a promising security studies scholar.

ISP hosted two outside speakers on Zoom who had recently published books on timely subjects in 2022: Director of Oxford University’s Global Security Programme Annette Idler who discussed her book Transforming the War on Drugs: Warriors, Victims, and Vulnerable Regions, and Royal United Services Institute Associate Fellow Samuel Ramani who discussed his book Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender?

During spring semester 2023, ISP will continue to select, support, and mentor promising scholars in the eld of security studies and co-host a professional development event with MIT’s Women in Political Science Group.

Korea Project

e Korea Project conducted major policy engagement activities ranging from Track 1.5 dialogues to an executive speaker series with leaders from the national security and scholar communities. rough in-person and virtual events, the Project expanded existing partnerships and leveraged diverse functional expertise. Main events in 2022 included: “North Korean Cyber Operations: At the Nexus of Geopolitics, Technology, and Policy”; “Exploring the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on South Korean Security”; “ e North Korean Model: Using Cyber Capabilities to Blunt Sanctions and Generate Illicit Revenue”; and “South Korea’s New External Economic Strategies: Headwinds Facing South Korean Conglomerates.”

e Korea Project convened its 3rd Harvard Korean Security Summit, a three-day event.

e Honorable Dr. Jin Pak (Minister of Foreign A airs, Republic of Korea) delivered Keynote Remarks. Top researchers of Korean security issues, senior ROK and U.S. practitioners, and next generation scholars provided key ndings from their respective research work. e summit highlighted the Korea Project’s work as a policy research laboratory, whose members create policy-relevant research on complex Korean security issues.

e Korea Project engaged policymakers in Washington, DC. Dr. John Park testi ed before the House Foreign A airs Committee on “ e Way Forward on U.S. North Korea Policy.” He gave several brie ngs to the intelligence community on the North Korean regime’s increasing use of cryptocurrency heists to ll leadership co ers. Dr. Park and Alex O’Neill

presented at the 2022 Korea Days Conference, co-organized by the National Intelligence Council and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

e Korea Project expanded its student mentoring initiative called “Tradecra : Learning from Research Pioneers.” Sydney Seiler (National Intelligence O cer for North Korea, O ce of the Director of National Intelligence) gave a talk on “Understanding North Korea: Strategic Goals, Tactical Actions.” Seiler engaged students on the research and analysis tradecra skills he honed over his 39-year career as a senior intelligence analyst. Priscilla Moriuchi (former East Asian and Paci c Cyber reats Expert, National Security Agency) gave a talk on “Tracking North Korean Cyber Actors.” Moriuchi focused on her hypothesis-driven approach to better understand the data.

On DIB e orts, Dr. Park was a main presenter at a Grant Writing Accelerator organized by the Department of Defense for HBCU faculty members applying for DOD research grants.

Looking ahead, the Korea Project will continue to build on successful initiatives to grow Korean security studies further at Harvard and beyond. For the 2023 Harvard Korean Security Summit and Young Scholars International Symposium, the Project will focus on the intersection of Korea-related technology and public policy issues. ese anchor events re ect the two traditions that drive the Belfer Center’s work: bringing together leading scholars and practitioners to diagnose policy puzzles and mentoring the next generation.

The goal of the Korea Project is to foster a deeper understanding of rapidly evolving security challenges on the Korean Peninsula and to develop creative approaches to address them. The Korea Project also partners with interdisciplinary researchers to capture insights from the Peninsula’s role as an oracle of global trends – from criminal cyber operations to pandemics to nuclear proliferation to economic statecraft.

Director: John Park

Coordinator: Alex O’Neill

Managing the Atom

The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) continues to produce and disseminate policy-focused research on nuclear issues, and to engage with o cials and experts to reduce nuclear risks around the world.

Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence and re-establishing strategic stability

Principal Investigator: Matthew Bunn

Executive Director: Francesca Giovannini

Senior Research Associate: Hui Zhang

Senior Research Associate: Mariana Budjeryn

Project Coordinator: Marina Lorenzini

Outreach Coordinator: Matt Parent

In May, Professor Bunn and Director Giovannini established a consortium of research centers to examine the role of nuclear deterrence in the 21st century. Topics include potential drivers of nuclear war, ethical and legal dilemmas of current nuclear doctrines, and prospects for future arms control. Supported by the MacArthur Foundation, the network examines topics including potential drivers of nuclear war, ethical and legal dilemmas of current nuclear doctrines, and prospects for future arms control.

Bunn and Senior Research Associate Mariana Budjeryn continued to participate in the National Academies’ weekly Track II dialogues with Russian counterparts, which stands today, in the a ermath of the Ukraine invasion, as one of the few remaining dialogues between American and Russian experts.

MTA members continued their engagement with China’s nuclear experts. Bunn participated in the Track II dialogue of the National Academy of Science while Giovannini took part in a dialogue convened by the Humanitarian Dialogue in the a ermath of U.S. House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Views on issues related to nuclear risks and great powers competitions were exchanged in writing between the two groups. Senior Research Associate Hui Zhang has been working on a report on the history of China’s testing program which should be released in early 2023.

Protecting the nuclear nonproliferation regime

MTA convened an event during the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference

to promote “Atomic Back res: When Nuclear Policies Fail”, a volume manuscript edited by three MTA former fellows seeking to help policymakers understand when and under what conditions sensible nuclear non-proliferation policies might produce unexpected negative externalities.

MTA convened with the Middle East Initiative a working group on Iran with the scope of examining the prospects for Iran and the United States to return to full compliance with the JCPOA, also called the Iran deal, and the possible security implications if such prospects do not materialize. e working group features scholars, former diplomats, policymakers, and scholars from various disciplines. A few publications will be released in 2023.

Raising awareness of nuclear risks in Ukraine

MTA sta and fellows authored more than 50 publications in 2022 and played a remarkable role in providing opinions and views on the risks of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine.

Giovannini’s article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on “Hurting Stalemate: e Risks of Nuclear Weapons Use in Ukraine” was accessed by 55,000 readers. Budjeryn was a regular contributor to major broadcasts including CNN, Al-Jazeera, and BBC, while Bunn provided brie ngs and analyses to a wide array of audiences including policymakers, scholars, and practitioners.

Encouraging greater diversity and inclusion

MTA has continued to convene “Atomic Voices,” a series of events on diversity and inclusion in the nuclear eld. One event focused on examining how nuclear courses are taught. A second event dealt with the humanitarian and political consequences of nuclear testing.

Middle East Initiative

One of MEI’s core commitments is to strengthen the intellectual exchange between Harvard and the Middle East. In 2022, MEI has done so most notably through its experiential learning course and Senior Fellows program.

In March 2022, the experiential learning course, “Leadership and Social Transformation in the Arab World,” took a delegation of 13 Harvard students to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Designed by MEI Faculty Director Professor Tarek Masoud and co-instructed by MEI Senior Fellow Sultan Al-Qassemi, the course deepened students’ understanding of the UAE’s economy, social transformations, and governance.

rough its Senior Fellows programs, MEI brings prominent practitioners to HKS to engage with students through teaching and mentorship. In 2022, MEI welcomed new Senior Fellows Dr. Youssef Chahed, former Prime Minister of Tunisia, Edward P. Djerejian, former U.S. Ambassador to Syria and to Israel, Emirati Political Scientist Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, and Dr. Ghadeer Aseri, former Minister of Social A airs, Kuwait. ese and other Senior Fellows hosted study groups focused on timely topics, such as “Approaches to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian Con ict” taught by Rami Khouri, “ e Gulf Moment” led by Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, “Israeli National Security in a Shi ing Middle East” with Amos Yadlin, and Dr. Omar Razzaz’s study group on “Policy vs. Politics & the Path to Reform.”

In 2022, MEI marked the 20th anniversary of its agship Kuwait Program at Harvard University. is program supports visiting senior and research fellows, faculty research, HKS degree fellowships, and executive education programming. In May, nearly 50 Kuwaitis participated in a custom HKS executive education program on “Navigating Change: Decision-Making, Negotia-

tion, and Leadership Strategies HKS,” supported by MEI through the Kuwait Program.

Other research activities in 2022 included hosting 13 research fellows (seven in the spring and six in the fall), whose research addresses topics such as opposition movements, authoritarian persistence, democratic backsliding, the political economy of the media, and crisis communication during the pandemic, among others. In addition, MEI awarded four grants to Harvard faculty for research on the Middle East related to Iran’s nuclear program, female entrepreneurship, leveraging technology to improve population health, and exploring citizens’ perception of regional identity. MEI also supported seven HKS students to pursue research or internships related to the Middle East.

Committed to engaging the broader community, MEI faculty director Professor Tarek Masoud hosted a series of public events and book talks featuring some of the most in uential scholars on the region. Topics included the 2018-2019 Sudanese uprising and its a ermath, MENA state responses to the refugee crisis, Arab Constitutionalism, Muslim responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, among others. In October 2022, Middle East Initiative Senior Fellow Youssef Chahed hosted a panel on the prolonged political instability in Libya and prospects for resolutions. Also that month, Professor Masoud moderated a discussion with MEI Fellow Avner Halperin and his co-authors about their topline recommendations from the report, “Time to Reboot: A Blueprint for the Palestinian Tech Sector.” In November, MEI Senior Fellow James Snyder hosted Iranian visual artist Shirin Neshat for a conversation about her work on Iran and Islam through a cultural lens.

The Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School is dedicated to advancing public policy in the Middle East by convening the world’s foremost academics and policy experts, developing the next generation of leaders, and promoting community engagement on campus and in the region.

Faculty Director: Tarek Masoud

Associate Director: Alison Hillegeist

Research and Finance Manager: Julia Martin

Program and Communications

Coordinator: Sam Himmelman (since July 2022)

Program and Communications

Administrator: Mary Fulham (until April 2022)

Executive Assistant to Faculty Director: Kristen Norweg (since May 2022)

Russia Matters

Russia Matters’ works to improve the understanding of Russia and the U.S.-Russian relationship amongst US policymakers and the concerned public. The project showcases the best expertise on drivers of the US-Russian relationship and its impact on the U.S. by providing top-notch analysis, relevant factual data, and digests of news and analysis on Russia, its relations with the U.S. and the rest of the world.

Principal Investigator: Graham Allison

Founding Director: Simon Saradzhyan

Editor: Natasha Yefimova-Trilling

Assistant Editor: Angelina Flood

In 2022, interest in Russia Matters’ content grew dramatically as Putin’s war on Ukraine became a dominant topic in international a airs. e project, supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Stanton Foundation, expanded publication of original, fact-based analytical products to satisfy the surge in interest.

e RM site’s metrics demonstrate our success in meeting the demand for fact-based analytical content on the Russia-Ukraine war and other factors in the U.S.-Russian relationship that have signi cant impact on U.S. national security. Pageviews for January-June 2022 exceeded total pageviews for the site in 2021. By the end of October 2022, visitors had nearly tripled from the same period in 2021. In addition, RM’s Twitter following more than tripled from 2021, with over 15,000 followers as of November 2022. Weekly news and analysis digests had more than 3,800 subscribers as of November, including hundreds of government o cials, academics, and business leaders from the U.S. and around the globe.

Russia Matters’ most signi cant accomplishments in 2022 include our ongoing analysis of the war in Ukraine from di erent perspectives so our audiences can form a comprehensive view of drivers of the con ict and its impact on the world order. We published the rst-ever comprehensive e ort to take stock and analyze attacks by the Ukrainian insurgency in Russia-occupied areas. To keep up with interest in developments and trends in post-Soviet Eurasia, we signi cantly increased the number of fact-checks and debates in our unique Contestable Claims section, and we developed a new series, “Clues from Russian Views,” where we track what Russian in uentials, pro-government and opposition, think about key aspects of Russian policies impacting U.S. vital interests. We also continued outreach to diverse scholars from groups

historically underrepresented in the U.S., Europe and Russia.

2022 also saw RM’s exclusive publications cited in many international news outlets, including e New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, Financial Times, and by Russian online sources including Republic.ru, e Moscow Times and Russia in Global A airs. Our publications have been on syllabi at Yale, Harvard, Georgetown, MGIMO and other universities, and have been translated into Russian, Chinese, German, Farsi, Czech and other languages. RM has also accumulated over 300 Google Scholar citations.

Professor Allison has continued his research on managing the U.S.-Russia relationship. ese e orts have included an evidence-backed disambiguation of a claim from a NYT article, “Odesa is ‘Putin’s Obsession,’” for RM’s Contestable Claims, as well as commentaries on Russia’s war against Ukraine and other Russia-related issues in Foreign Policy, e Boston Globe, Bulletin of Atomic Sciences, and others.

In 2023, we plan to continue expanding Contestable Claims and Clues from Russian Views. We will also continue researching and publishing analytical content about Russia’s war against Ukraine. Speci c products will include a commentary on lessons of the war for Taiwan by a Taiwanese scholar; and an analysis examining which side is “winning” the Russian-Western energy battle. We also plan to commission a series exploring alternative futures for Russia a er Putin’s presidential term ends in 2024. Finally, we will continue outreach to diverse scholars through a grant from the U.S.-Russia Foundation to provide on-the-job training for graduate students interested in careers in Russia policy research.

Science, Technology, and Public Policy

In 2022, the Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP) Program continued and expanded its long-standing research, training, and policy-engagement e orts on multiple fronts. e achievements of the Arctic Initiative (a joint project of STPP and the Environment and Natural Resources Program (ENRP)) and Managing the Atom (joint among STPP, ENRP, and ISP) are described elsewhere in this report.

STPP’s work with ENRP and the Harvard University Center for Environment (HUCE) on energy-technology innovation for deep decarbonization continued to focus heavily in 2021 on China, India, and the United States, and it has also advanced its related, globally focused e ort under the Global Energy Technology Innovation (GETI) rubric (covered by ENRP in this report).

e project’s China component is co-led by John P. Holdren, Dan Schrag, and ENRP’s Henry Lee. Its principal current focus is a collaborative e ort with the Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy, and Environment (based at Harvard’s Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science) and Tsinghua University’s Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (led by China’s Climate Envoy, Minister Xie Zhenhua), focused on exploration of policies to accelerate development and deployment of the most promising technologies for achieving decarbonization of the two countries’ energy sectors by mid-century. Highlights in 2022 included two joint video workshops engaging the full Harvard and Tsinghua teams, the completion of several policy briefs addressing opportunities and barriers around key decarbonization technologies, and a joint statement of initial agreed ndings signed by leading project participants

from both sides. As another part of the work on low-carbon energy pathways in China, Schrag and Lee continue to supervise four STPP-ENRP fellows focused on obstacles to low-carbon energy development in China.

In addition to the U.S.-focused component of the collaborative decarbonization work with Tsinghua, the U.S. focus of the STPP’s energy-technology innovation work has included continuation of Holdren’s engagement with top energy-climate o cials in the Biden administration and the BCSIA team’s interactions with top BP o cials on pathways toward sustainability, including hosting at HKS in December the annual workshop on that topic. e India-decarbonization component, co-led by Holdren and Venkatesh Narayanamurti, ramped up its collaboration with the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi this year, with biweekly video meetings of the two teams, a major workshop in July on the challenges in modernizing and decarbonizing India’s electricity sector, and a major expansion of the number of in-residence Indian post-doctoral fellows.

e STPP program also oversees the Council for the Responsible Use of Arti cial Intelligence, which brings together leaders from academia, industry, and the public sector to explore the use and misuse of machine learning and arti cial intelligence. In 2022 we built on this e ort with weekly seminars organized by Bruce Schneier and Cathy O’Neil, a fall workshop of “Designing AI with Dignity”, and planning for a spring workshop on “AI, Insurance, and Climate Change.”

The Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP) Program draws on insights from scholarly and applied work in science and engineering, technology assessment, political science, economics, management, and law to research and practice on the intersection of science and technology with public a airs. The goal is to develop and promote public policies that advance the application of science and technology to improvement of the human condition.

Co-Director: John P. Holdren

Co-Director: Daniel Schrag

Director Emeritus: Venkatesh Narayanamurti

Administrative Coordinator: Karin L. Vander Schaaf

Communications and Outreach Specialist: Elizabeth Hanlon

Technology and Public Purpose

The Technology and Public Purpose Project works to ensure that emerging technologies are developed and managed in ways that serve the overall public good.

Faculty Director:

Ash Carter (passed away Oct 24)

Venky Narayanamurti (since Nov 2022) Eric Rosenbach (since Nov2022)

Associate Director: Amritha Jayanti

Project Coordinator: Victoria Burnham (since Oct)

Senior Research Assistant: Ariel Higuchi

Research Assistant: John Schultz

Project Manager: Karen Ejiofor (until July)

Executive Assistant to Secretary Carter: Henry Kaempf (until July)

Communications Fellow: Ada Ezeokoli (since Sep)

In 2022, the TAPP Project advanced its mission to ensure innovation is aligned with public purpose. Secretary Carter founded TAPP in 2018 and was deeply involved with the project’s work until his passing; we plan to carry his mission and vision of the project forward.

Convening Experts for the Democracy and Internet Governance Initiative

In 2021, TAPP launched a joint initiative with Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy to address the growing public concerns about digital platforms. From January through April, the Project convened leading experts and stakeholders to evaluate policy and self-governance options for high-priority issue areas: the right to speak, the right to truth, and the right to safety. TAPP engaged several congressional o ces, federal agencies, technology companies, and experts in civil society and academia, providing us with a unique mix of perspectives and ndings.

Welcoming New Cohorts of In-Residence and Non-Resident Fellows

e project welcomed a new cohort of four in-residence practitioners. is cohort of fellows is developing solutions to pressing issues in the technology and public purpose arena, such as web3 governance, blockchain and participatory urban planning, residential solar deployment and grid management, and research and development for neurodegeneration diseases. TAPP also welcomed nine non-resident fellows, who are tackling technology and public purpose issues from their current positions across policy, business, and civil society.

Leveraging a New Push for Science and Technology Policy in the U.S.

e historic CHIPS and Science Act was signed into law August 2022. TAPP has worked with

key Congressional o ces and federal agencies to understand how we can e ectively work toward the goals of CHIPS and Science, and ensure the new law catalyzes a new era of science and technology investment in the U.S.

Informing Key Decision Makers rough TAPP’s Boston Tech Hub Faculty Working Group Sessions

TAPP hosted eight Boston Tech Hub Faculty Working Group sessions with senior decision makers and leaders from the Greater Boston area. Session topics for Spring 2022 included Boston’s role in the national strategy for supporting publicoriented science, technology, and innovation. Fall 2022 topics included augmented/virtual reality for the Metaverse, post-quantum cryptography, direct air capture, and smart wearables.

Publishing New Tech Factsheets Series

e Technology Factsheet Series o ers a brief overview of the technical aspects of salient technologies and their public purpose relevance for policymakers. is year, the Project published factsheets on social media recommendation algorithms and updated our factsheet on arti cial intelligence and machine learning. TAPP also has several factsheets queued for publication on the topics covered in our Fall 2022 Faculty Working Group.

Priorities for 2023

As TAPP moves into the new year, the Project looks forward to strengthening its work and impact, and aims to: (1) better coordinate with U.S. policymakers and technologists to implement technology and public purpose frameworks at high-leverage points; and (2) conduct cutting-edge research on priority topics, such as digital platform governance, the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act, and more.

Meaningful Meetings

October 13, 2022: HKS student Vic Hogg meets with Guðni Thorlacius Jóhannesson, President of Iceland, as part of the Arctic Initiative’s trip to the Arctic Circle Assembly. Hogg’s proposal, “Capacity Building within Alaska Native Communities for Land Co-Management,” along with other proposals by students from around the world, was presented to a large audience at the Arctic Innovation Lab.

The Belfer Center Group

Photo – September 2022

Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world.